Is the economy headed for a "Soft Landing" or an Iceberg? In this episode, we dive into the world of Florida men with some hilarious and bizarre stories. From cleaning houses to time-traveling attempts, Florida men never fail to entertain.

Then, we focus on the economy, discussing whether we are heading for a soft landing or an iceberg. Jeff and Ron analyze key indicators like job openings, non-farm payrolls, inflation, and home prices to provide insights into the current economic landscape.

The discussion also touches on the trend of "unretiring," where older workers are rejoining the labor market in their 60s and 70s. Jeff and Ron share their perspectives on why some retirees continue working and how it impacts the workforce.

Tune in for a blend of humor, market analysis, and thought-provoking insights in this episode of "The Cents of Things." Don't forget to subscribe, hit the upvote button, and join our growing community of listeners. Thank you for tuning in, and we look forward to having you back for the next episode!

You can also catch the show on our YouTube Channel

https://www.youtube.com/@TheCentsOfThings

To Follow Jeff Kikel

www.LinkedIn.com/in/JeffKikel

www.FreedomDayWealth.com

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www.linkedin.com/in/RonLangBuildsWealth

www.AtlasBuildsWealth.com

Welcome to the Cents of things

podcast, where your money talks and

2

we listen, join host Jeff Kickel and

Ron Lang as they explore the economy,

3

financial planning, and the stock

market, adding a splash of fun to

4

make your financial journey engaging.

5

Each episode, they break down

complex topics to give you the clear

6

edge in your financial decisions.

7

Stay tuned and let's make

Cents of things together.

8

Jeff Kikel: Good morning and

welcome to the Cents of things.

9

It's Jeff and Ron here once

again for another episode of fun

10

things, markets and the economy.

11

Ron, how are you doing this morning, sir?

12

Ron Lang: Good.

13

Just a quick public service note.

14

Drink water.

15

Jeff Kikel: Yes,

16

Ron Lang: drink hydrated.

17

Jeff Kikel: You're what did you say?

18

The weather in Arizona

is gonna be this week.

19

Hit 1 10

20

Ron Lang: today.

21

But look, the afternoons are brutal.

22

But you know what?

23

It is the mornings are terrific.

24

But yeah, it's starting to

get soupy in the afternoons.

25

Jeff Kikel: Yeah I will say Texas we

have the equivalent of one 10 and we

26

still haven't hit a hundred because we

have so much humidity right now that it

27

felt like I was I was literally swimming

out to take trash out at the office.

28

Ron Lang: Yeah.

29

Bring a change of clothes

for when you go outside.

30

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, pretty much.

31

Good thing is we do that

at the end of the day.

32

So I only have to smell myself for

about a half an hour before I go home.

33

All right let's kick it off today.

34

I felt that one thing we haven't

visited in a while is our

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Favorite friends, the Florida men.

36

And so I figured it was a good time

to kick us off with a little bit of

37

Florida man action and talk a little

bit about what's going on in the world.

38

The Florida man.

39

So starting

40

Ron Lang: off by the way,

real quick with Florida.

41

It's got to be crazy with the heat.

42

So you got to just equate it to that.

43

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, but they

do this all year long.

44

So I'm not sure why, whatever.

45

All so number one, Florida man story,

Florida man breaks into a house,

46

cleans it, leaves behind origami.

47

So in 2019, a man identified as Nate

Roman from Marlborough, Massachusetts.

48

Reported a funny incident

that left him shocked.

49

He came home and found an intruder

had entered his home, cleaned

50

everything in the house, including

spreading his bead and scrubbing the

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toilet or bed spreading his bead.

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I think means, I think they mean fixing

his bed up, scrubbing the toilets.

53

He even, what was even more crazy

was that he left behind origami

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roses on his toilet paper rolls.

55

He's got a, he's got a secret admirer.

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I'm actually impressed.

57

I wish I would get a Florida man

here to to take care of that.

58

So second one, a Florida man blows a 0.

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339.

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Had to be dead.

61

How was he standing?

62

That's alcohol level and

gets a DUI on a golf cart.

63

Alfred Constant Matthew went

for a cruise on his golf cart

64

while driving on the highway.

65

He was stopped by police that

who noticed he was drunk.

66

Maybe the fact that he was driving

a golf cart on the highway might

67

have been the first indication on

testing his blood alcohol content.

68

It turned out to be 0.

69

339, which was way above the legal

limit and almost to the death limit.

70

He was arrested.

71

If they

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Ron Lang: bring his arm.

73

Probably that would be 1.

74

10 alcohol that would

squeeze out and sweat.

75

Absolutely.

76

Jeff Kikel: All right.

77

So here's another good one.

78

Florida man flees cops so fast

that some of his clothes come off.

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So police identified him

with DNA from his socks.

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Cops could only find a pair of

jeans, shorts, a sandal, and a sock.

81

Now, this guy is so fast that

he can run his pants off.

82

I'm thinking Miami Dolphins

next year, wide receiver.

83

This is the other

84

Ron Lang: thing I'm thinking.

85

Probably they put out an

APB of what he was wearing.

86

So he just ripped off his clothes because

they weren't expecting a naked guy.

87

So he'd rather probably get arrested

for indecent exposure than whatever.

88

And for whatever he got in trouble

89

Jeff Kikel: for.

90

Yeah.

91

It doesn't even say

what he got a criminal.

92

I think, I don't know.

93

Maybe he had the forethought at

the time to think about this.

94

Florida man tries to walk off

out of a store with a chainsaw

95

stepped down his pants.

96

Anthony Ballard took shoplifting a

notch higher by shoplifting a chainsaw.

97

He reportedly entered Treasure Coast lawn

equipment, engaged cashier in small talk

98

while hiding the Power tool in his pants.

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Ron Lang: Jeff, there's

gotta be video of this.

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Jeff Kikel: I've, there's gotta be

video of it, of him shoving in his

101

pants and the, the employee saying,

is that a chainsaw in your pants

102

or are you just happy to see me?

103

It depends whether or

not it was on or not.

104

That's true.

105

That could be a problem.

106

And we did have that one

picture a few months ago where

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I got the second circumcision.

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Yep, exactly.

109

Interestingly enough.

110

All right.

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My favorite one of all florida man

arrested for crashing a car into a mall

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says he was trying to time travel a

car and crashed into the mall at north

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Davis highway in Pensacola florida.

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When cops questioned the unidentified

man driving the dodge challenger,

115

he said he was trying to time

travel When the incident occurred.

116

Now, if he'd had a DeLorean, he'd

have been there, but unfortunately

117

he chose the Dodge Challenger.

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Ron Lang: Did he hit 88 miles an hour?

119

That's the true

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Jeff Kikel: question.

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I don't know.

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My wife owns a Dodge Challenger.

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The V six can get up.

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It's pretty fast.

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It's like a 6.3.

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Zero to 60.

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You should be able to get to 88 miles

per hour in it, but apparently he did

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not have the flux capacitor filled or

the the back to the future to where it's

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the Vegematic thing that's in there.

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He just didn't fill it up.

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Ron Lang: Gotcha.

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All right.

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Jeff Kikel: All right.

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Let's let's talk about

my stuff for the day.

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Are we heading for a soft

landing or an iceberg?

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This is one of my favorite terms that I

hear from the stupidity of the government.

137

And a lot of the market

puns about financial media.

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Ron Lang: Mainly

139

Jeff Kikel: Media.

140

Yeah.

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Soft landing.

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Soft landing.

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Are we gonna have a soft on?

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Did you

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Ron Lang: ever hear Jerome Powell

ever say hard or soft landing?

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Jeff Kikel: No.

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Nope.

148

Not once ever.

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There is no such thing as a soft landing.

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It is an iceberg in most cases.

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And if you are looking for the Fed.

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Or anybody, the treasury or

the fed to rescue the economy.

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If you look at their history, it

has been absolutely atrocious.

154

When it comes to this, they usually

wait way too long to come in and

155

try and slow things down, which they

did this time by almost 18 months.

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And I would argue the point it was

157

just inflated assets and caused, a lot

of issues that we're now dealing with.

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But the other side of the

coin is is it an iceberg?

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And when do we hit it?

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We don't know, nor did the

Titanic know that there was

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going to be an iceberg there.

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On our last show,

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Ron Lang: they were just weren't looking.

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Jeff Kikel: Yeah, exactly.

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And I, on the last show, we just

touched at the end, Ron talked a

166

little bit about jolts the jolts

report, which is job openings report.

167

This comes from the Bureau

of Labor Statistics.

168

And if you can see after the peak in

169

part of that was that you had so many

people that were laid off and as the

170

economy was starting to come back, there

was a ton of job openings because people

171

were looking, literally there was.

172

For hire signs everywhere.

173

And you had people during the pandemic

that didn't want to go back to work.

174

And the government was basically

paying them not to go back to work.

175

We've seen that get pulled back down.

176

So the open job openings are reducing,

but there's been an accelerated trend as

177

of late, pretty much late 2023 going into

178

And I would, I would garner to say that is

also companies now starting to pull back.

179

On jobs, they're just not the open

jobs aren't there because companies

180

are pulling back and, you're starting

to see big layoffs in the tech space.

181

That probably was because they went too

far the other way, but we're starting to

182

see those jobs pull back, which, if you

look at the long term trend, it's getting

183

back to where the long term trend was.

184

But does it keep going beyond that and

we start to drop into a situation like

185

we typically see before big we got a

186

Ron Lang: divergence because

unemployment has ticked up

187

Jeff Kikel: and

188

Ron Lang: job openings are coming down

189

Jeff Kikel: and non farm payrolls

here once again, another sign

190

of that if you look at year over

year, we were up around 275.

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We came in this month, or last

month around, I think it was 175.

192

And if you look at the ADP

number that came out earlier

193

this week, it was around 152.

194

It had been expected to be, in line

with where it came in last month.

195

So it'll be interesting because tomorrow

is that nonfarm payroll number for.

196

The month of May, and does

this continue to decline?

197

And is it, continued

year over year decline?

198

Why is that important?

199

It is a sign of a slowing economy, but

the challenge that we have now is we have

200

really high interest rates, and we have

massive amounts of of consumer credit.

201

And if, this continues to increase and

unemployment continues to increase,

202

that's going to put a massive strain.

203

On, the consumer, basically,

204

Ron Lang: we didn't even talk about

treasury debt and interest payments.

205

Jeff Kikel: That's a whole nother animal.

206

They can just, they have

the ability to print money.

207

We don't hourly earnings.

208

This was something I hadn't

looked at in a long time.

209

And I just happened to catch it.

210

I think it was on the non farm

payrolls section of briefing.

211

com.

212

It was an extra chart and hourly

earnings year over year have been

213

declining just continually, which is.

214

You look at inflation and inflation

has gone this way and hourly

215

earnings are going that way.

216

And once again, we're seeing that

accelerate to the downside as well.

217

They

218

Ron Lang: say wage growth is going up, but

219

Jeff Kikel: yeah, I don't think so.

220

Wage growth is going up.

221

Here's a chart from Bureau of Labor

Statistics and it ain't going up.

222

I'm sorry.

223

It's going down significantly.

224

And if you look at real wage growth

with inflation, it ain't good, cause.

225

We're at 4 percent and inflation's

basically at four or what?

226

Five.

227

Something at this point, I think it's

under, I think it's just under four.

228

Okay.

229

All so it's your Bay you're breaking

even at this point unemployment, like you

230

were talking about, we had that spike up

in, in the, during the pandemic, it had

231

been coming down pretty significantly

throughout the, basically from the peak

232

of the 2008 period, the great recession.

233

It had gone all the way down

below 4 percent and we're starting

234

to eke our way back up to 4

percent and above at this point.

235

So it tends not to move rapidly,

but it's starting to move in

236

the direction you don't really

want to see it go at that point.

237

Inflation, once again,

yes, it's gone down.

238

Oh, it's gotten better.

239

Yeah, but it's just starting to level off.

240

Here when we look at inflation and

it's leveling off at a much higher

241

level than where the Fed is, willing

to accept and this is the PCE number.

242

This is the number that the Fed

uses and that they trust the most.

243

And it's still very far away

from where their target is

244

of 2 percent at that point.

245

And, once

246

Ron Lang: again,

247

Jeff Kikel: yeah.

248

And trying to lose that last

10 pounds or whatever is always

249

going to be the toughest as well.

250

And it's going to take some major

moves or the economy kind of coming

251

unglued to really get that number down.

252

Home prices, this is something

I was interested in as I was

253

looking through all this.

254

What is home?

255

What are home prices look like?

256

Because we've got really high,

In the sevens range on 30

257

year mortgages at this point.

258

House prices have slowed The average

house price is about four hundred twenty

259

five thousand dollars, but it's not

declining rapidly It's just leveling off

260

and the challenge that we run into with

that is We don't have enough inventory.

261

And the bigger challenge is the baby

boom generation, which has traditionally

262

been the generation that's driven

everything economy wise in the world.

263

What's happened with them while

they had these big, huge houses

264

where they had big, huge families.

265

And now they're retiring

and they're downsizing.

266

And unfortunately they're downsizing

right into the inventory that

267

normally would be the young people

coming in as a starter home.

268

And I don't

269

Ron Lang: understand and I haven't heard

a cogent argument or any legitimacy of

270

why Post covid prices just went parabolic.

271

Oh, yeah With 10 000 people essentially

hitting 65 every day or plus or minus

272

people are downsizing so that's what,

new home sales are spiking obviously,

273

because there's no inventory existing

home sales and a 7 percent plus 30

274

year fixed is slowing that down.

275

But I don't understand if you take a look,

what is that a 70 year history almost?

276

Yeah.

277

60 year history.

278

Why post COVID it literally has gone up.

279

If you look at it, almost 35%.

280

Yeah, four year period of time

and I haven't heard any legitimacy

281

behind why that's happened

282

Jeff Kikel: I think from my perspective

it was cheap money, you know during that

283

time period you could basically Hold on to

284

Ron Lang: interrupt you, but

it was cheap following the

285

financial crisis through 2019.

286

Jeff Kikel: Yep cheap money, I think this

cheap money and the ability for people

287

to relocate because they could work

independently, the ability to relocate

288

and quite frankly, the people willing

to just pay stupid money for houses.

289

I remember, while I had a client,

perfect example had what I would

290

consider a very average house.

291

It was probably 45, maybe 50 years old.

292

Little bit of renovations,

but not anything dramatic.

293

And this was right at the beginning

294

She sold her house here in Austin for 40

percent more than what she listed it for.

295

So it was like, it was

maybe a 300, 000 house.

296

She sold for 425, 450, 000.

297

And the people that bought the house

came in and ripped it down and put

298

another built a whole new house.

299

From ground up, so they paid 475, 000

for a lot and a house that they were

300

going to rip down and then probably built

another 500, 000 house on top of it.

301

It was not a 1, 000, 000 neighborhood

by any way, shape or form.

302

And it still isn't to this day.

303

So it was just people willing

to pay stupid money for it.

304

But it's amazing to me how persistent

that price has been afterwards.

305

Yes.

306

The parabolic side of it, typically

when you see a parabolic upward, you're

307

going to typically see some kind of

a pretty massive downward and it's

308

not, it's flat at best at this point.

309

So it's really shocking to me.

310

From a real estate perspective.

311

Ron Lang: Yeah, I don't

understand it either

312

Jeff Kikel: And I think my last point

that I want to make out of this is the

313

trend of the newest trend of unretiring

As many as 20 of older workers are

314

rejoining the labor market in their

315

nearly twice the percentage of americans

Over the age of 65 working compared to

316

the 1980s, and this is by Pew Research.

317

And I think this is, 1, it's

an interesting trend because.

318

You have a workforce and I will just

say now I had somebody work for me

319

for 3 weeks in another business.

320

From the wealth management

practice and quit via text.

321

So I think part of it is the new younger

workforce is not necessarily willing

322

to work as hard, but I think a lot of

these folks that retired and thought.

323

Okay, i'm just done, you know a lot

of them retired even early during the

324

Pandemic, you know just saying i'll

screw it I'll just go and retire early

325

and then inflation's come back to bite

them hard and I would venture to say

326

That number is even higher than 20.

327

What's your thoughts?

328

Ron Lang: I always when I talk to

clients that are pre retirees I always

329

say there's a difference between when

you reach a certain age that you have

330

to work Yeah, where you want to work.

331

Yeah huge difference and where i'm

going with that is the following

332

I think people are working

longer now because Better health.

333

Yeah.

334

Better living through

chemistry, better health.

335

But I think the other reason is if you

love what you do and you enjoy getting

336

up in the morning, why would you quit?

337

, let's say you're not a

golfer, you're not a traveler.

338

Yep.

339

What are you gonna do?

340

Sit around, gain weight, eat.

341

Yeah.

342

But my point is that.

343

You can hit a certain age and

be somewhat financially stable.

344

Not a hundred percent and go.

345

I'm gonna throttle back I have lots

of clients in their 70s that are

346

still working and they enjoy getting

up every day And it's not a grind and

347

most of them I would say not only do

they enjoy working, but they don't

348

have to work, but they enjoy working.

349

Plus, the additional income allows

them to take an extra vacation or do

350

something else that they want to do.

351

Or here's the other big thing.

352

They enjoy working

because that extra money.

353

Helps them provide for their kids

or grandkids or extended family

354

because they're struggling.

355

So it's a different age.

356

Back in the day you hit 65,

it was like Logan's run.

357

You were done, right?

358

The light

359

Jeff Kikel: was blinking

in your palm at that point.

360

You're

361

Ron Lang: out.

362

But, today it's a very,

it's a very different story.

363

Jeff Kikel: I give

364

Ron Lang: the, we're not 60

yet, but people ask me, Ron,

365

we're planning 10, 15 years out.

366

What are you looking to retire?

367

What are you talking about?

368

My father's 83, he's

still in the business.

369

He's not putting in 40 hours a week.

370

But he loves the business.

371

He's doing business.

372

So if he did it and it was

stressful, he wouldn't be doing it.

373

Neither would I, neither would you

know, it's a different, if you enjoy

374

Jeff Kikel: what you're doing

and you don't have to do it, my

375

dad's a great example of this.

376

He's 84 years old and he works for

Lowe's, and he works in the hardware

377

section, which That's what he loves.

378

He was a quality control engineer.

379

So if you ask him, how do I fix this?

380

He's going to show you how to take

every screw, what tools you're

381

going to need, everything else.

382

And he loves it.

383

And it's that interaction.

384

And, basically he and my mom had

almost 15 years of travel and all that.

385

And he's not a golfer and he's not, he's

done every project around the house.

386

At this point.

387

So he was really getting to that point

where it was like, okay, I can just sit

388

here and read books for the rest of my

life and die, or get up and do this.

389

And, he's, he works the schedule that

they give him, but he's also very,

390

specific about, I do not want to work

more than 20 hours a week, it hurts

391

my back if I'm on my feet that much.

392

He's just, it keeps him healthy.

393

He looks great.

394

He's, it's keeps his weight

down and everything else.

395

And my mom does volunteer work So I

think it is a different generation

396

Ron Lang: the coattails of that

jeff Creating a lifestyle that

397

makes Cents to them and it involves

working what's the big deal?

398

Yeah volunteer a lot of

people like volunteer.

399

I tell people don't do nothing, you

know Do something volunteer, work

400

part time do something that you enjoy

401

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, and I've worked

with retirees for 30 years, and I tell

402

people all the time I've met some of

the youngest 90 year olds in the world

403

and some of the oldest 60 year olds, and

it's how you adjust yourself to that.

404

Yes, I'm retiring.

405

I think part of it is financial, but

I think the other side of that is

406

exactly where you and I are coming from.

407

It's not a death sentence

to go back to work.

408

It's the ability to go, you know what?

409

I'm gonna go back to

work, but you know what?

410

I'm also retired.

411

I just do this part time and

I'm going to take some time off.

412

So if you've got something that is a

saleable skill, whether it's your ability

413

to work or it's the knowledge in your

head that you spent 40 years learning.

414

I don't intend to retire.

415

I can write books until

I'm, a hundred years old.

416

I can do what I do for a

living, managing people's money.

417

I don't dig ditches for a living.

418

So as long as my brain's still

working I can keep doing this.

419

Ron Lang: I hear you.

420

Everybody's different, but there's no

de facto line of demarcation at 65.

421

Jeff Kikel: You're just not going

to sit there on the front porch

422

and whittle wood until you die.

423

The reality is we.

424

We went from 1938, the average

the average life expectancy.

425

I just looked this up the other

day for a book I'm writing.

426

The average life expectancy

427

Ron Lang: I did the same

thing for many seminars.

428

I've spoken at in the past, 1912 was 54.

429

Jeff Kikel: So when you think about

social security, it was a pretty good bet.

430

You started it at 65 and

the average age was like 63.

431

So it was a great bet from the

government that, okay we'll just

432

take care of the people that actually

live beyond that time period.

433

What they didn't realize was, Oh crap.

434

What happens when we get really

good at keeping people alive until

435

they're in their eighties that's

the challenge that we face today.

436

We're nineties or nineties.

437

Yeah it's going up.

438

It creeps up every year.

439

Folks, thank you for joining us as always.

440

We we do the Cents of things for.

441

That very purpose for you and

you only, it's not for Ron to get

442

on Ron and I, to get on here and

show you funny stuff every week.

443

It's really for us to

give you information.

444

And I hope you enjoy this.

445

And I hope it gives you some ideas about

what you're doing in your own portfolios.

446

So make sure you subscribe to the channel,

make sure that you hit that little upvote

447

button to let us know that you exist.

448

And Because we're seeing a huge amount

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449

And if you're new to the show,

thank you for being on and thank

450

you for being a subscriber.

451

So thanks a lot.

452

And we'll see you guys back

here the very next time.