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One of the greatest features of this podcast, and my work in general, is that I keep getting surprised. Along the way, I keep learning, and I meet fascinating people, like Tarmo Jüristo.
Tarmo is hard to describe. These days, he’s heading an NGO called Salk, in the Baltic state called Estonia. Among other things, they are studying and forecasting elections, which is how we met and ended up collaborating with PyMC Labs, our Bayesian consultancy.
But Tarmo is much more than that. Born in 1971 in what was still the Soviet Union, he graduated in finance from Tartu University. He worked in finance and investment banking until the 2009 crisis, when he quit and started a doctorate in… cultural studies. He then went on to write for theater and TV, teaching literature, anthropology and philosophy. An avid world traveler, he also teaches kendo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
As you’ll hear in the episode, after lots of adventures, he established Salk, and they just used a Bayesian hierarchical model with post-stratification to forecast the results of the 2023 Estonian parliamentary elections and target the campaign efforts to specific demographics.
Oh, and let thing: Tarmo is a fan of the show — I told he was a great guy ;)
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !
Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!
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