In this episode of Slots and Locks, Tim and Mello dive into the fast-growing world of prediction markets where probabilities trade like assets and real money turns opinions into live forecasts. Sitting at the intersection of sports, politics, economics, and culture, prediction markets act as a real-time probability engine, often moving faster (and more honestly) than polls or traditional media.

The hosts break down how prediction markets work, why they differ from sports betting, and how platforms approach pricing and liquidity differently. They compare the speed and volatility of Polymarket, the structured and data-driven nature of Kalshi, and the mass-market implications of Robinhood treating prediction markets as a new asset class alongside stocks and crypto. The episode also explores Metaculus, a non-trading forecasting platform that trains users to think probabilistically and consistently outperforms traditional experts.

Beyond the mechanics, Tim and Mello discuss why prediction markets matter: they crowdsource intelligence, surface sentiment in real time, and offer new ways to hedge uncertainty from elections and weather to regulation and corporate risk. They also tackle key concerns, including thin-market manipulation, insider information, regulatory uncertainty, and the feedback loops these markets can create in public perception.

The takeaway? Prediction markets aren’t a fad. They’re a permanent, evolving layer of how information, belief, and risk get priced in the modern world.

Welcome to the Slots and Locks show!

2

Here is Tim and Mello.

3

Tim: Welcome back to Slots and Locks.

4

I'm Tim, and this is my

companion on this ride.

5

Mellow.

6

so today we want to talk

about prediction markets.

7

Midderanalytics: talking

8

Tim: talking about it, in this

space between sports, politics,

9

economics, culture, everything kind

of melds into predicts markets.

10

they're talking about trading

probabilities like stocks or

11

props and things like that.

12

Midderanalytics: And this is Mello

13

And the craziest part is that prediction

markets have become like a real

14

time probability, API for the world.

15

They turn information, rumors, and gut

instincts into a live number that updates

16

faster than polls or news outlets.

17

That is why so many analysts and

traders monitor these markets, even

18

when they are not trading on them.

19

Tim: So let's talk about

how prediction market work.

20

I mean, that's, it is probably the basics

we talked about, in our last episode,

21

slots and the basic mechanics of it.

22

with every episode when we

introduce a new idea, we should

23

talk about kind of how they work.

24

short kind of example is

they turn like a, a belief.

25

Into a live probability.

26

that's a simple way of doing it.

27

Midderanalytics: Idea is

28

Tim: is taking a contract on a real event.

29

So let's say someone's gonna win the

next election, or when you think the

30

interest rates are gonna drop, or

some other, you know, Taylor Swift,

31

when is their next concert gonna be?

32

and all these things get kind

of into a place where you can

33

make some prediction of whether

something's going to happen or not.

34

Midderanalytics:

Celebrity couple breakups.

35

if the event happens, it

settles basically on a dollar.

36

if it does not, then it settles at zero.

37

if a contract is trading at 60 cents, the

market is saying there's a 60% chance.

38

It's true.

39

Very simple.

40

no nonsense on the pricing.

41

Tim: Yeah.

42

the great part of this, they're faster

in polls or faster in news because

43

traders are committing real money.

44

the difference between sports

betting and prediction markets,

45

you're not betting against a house.

46

Your trading gets a crowd of people.

47

if the crowd is wrong and

you're right, you get paid.

48

so it's, it's something around what

ties into what people might overlook.

49

Markets beats polls because

traders have skin in the game.

50

You cannot bluff a prediction

without wishful thinking.

51

this makes it fun in a way.

52

and it sits outside of the

traditional sports betting model.

53

Midderanalytics: the platforms,

handle these differently.

54

poly Market relies on an automated

liquidity pool, which keeps

55

prices moving, but gets pushed

around when things are thin.

56

And when I say thin, I

mean like the liquidity.

57

So if there's not a whole lot of

engagement, platforms like Calci

58

and Robinhood use Order books, which

usually settle into more stable pricing.

59

Once the volume goes up, my guest will

eventually see hybrid models, markets

60

that start as pools for early action

and then shift into order books.

61

once the party gets crowded.

62

Tim: So let's talk about

poly market, calci.

63

I think we should give some

specifics on poly market.

64

And how are they different?

65

and throw in Robinhood, and this other

one we're gonna look at in a moment,

66

which we'll get into is meticulous.

67

Did I say that right?

68

Because I always feel like I say it wrong.

69

Midderanalytics: calculus meta

70

you almost,

71

Tim: Okay.

72

So poly market,

73

Midderanalytics: you have to say it twice.

74

Tim: ahead.

75

Midderanalytics: almost

have to say it twice.

76

Tim: I know when I say it the first

time, it just doesn't sound right.

77

all right.

78

So poly market, it's not regulated.

79

It's more global.

80

It's fast.

81

It uses crypto.

82

it fits in the prediction model.

83

they can launch in anything trending like

sports, politics, memes, you name it.

84

'cause they have lot less restrictions.

85

So if you go to Poly Market you're

gonna see a lot more options, to

86

trade than something like Cal Sheet.

87

Midderanalytics: Yeah, it reacts

instantly, almost too instantly.

88

In crier, crypto creeper traders,

crypto traders adore speed, that

89

speed can feel less like a sensory

system and more like a hair trigger.

90

someone even whispers online,

poly market already slaps a price

91

on it, whether the signal is

meaningful or just internet noise,

92

Tim: And I think with that, a lot

of that too is internet noise.

93

you gotta sift through it,

which is why traders are getting

94

into this market as well.

95

but because it's crypto and global,

it sits outside of the US regulations,

96

they can list events traditionally

that someone else might not touch.

97

So I think we should segue also in

the calci and talk a little about

98

that and kind of how they differ.

99

Midderanalytics: Ochi is

basically the opposite.

100

It's structured.

101

Regulated.

102

Is it regulated?

103

Institutional, almost to a fault.

104

their contracts stick to economics,

government actions, weather and policy,

105

and the whole thing feels like a pocket

size Chicago mercantile exchange.

106

it's truly like the nerdy version

of prediction markets, right?

107

impressive.

108

Sure.

109

you can shake the sense that

you're trading inside a very

110

tidy box with very firm walls.

111

Tim: And they tell a

slightly different story.

112

they have something called an order book.

113

Which is price movements are more precise.

114

they're less influenced by hype.

115

They're more influenced by

data and expert traders.

116

So

117

Midderanalytics: The

118

Tim: imagine a VC or a stock trader

or a market maker going into this, it,

119

it's gonna be a lot more structured.

120

So watch Mark and Calci side by

side gives you a crazy triangulation

121

of, of what's different communities

believe in, you know, poly market

122

for instance, might have, might see

more wild swings, a lot less volume.

123

versus calcium might be more

structured and, and won't, you won't

124

see violent price swings, not, some

say you wouldn't, but you may not.

125

Midderanalytics: Love your, go ahead.

126

I love your term.

127

Crazy triangulation

128

Tim: Robinhood, which

has their own models.

129

I know they've used Calci as well,

Robinhood is similar to a stock

130

trading app, like Charles Schwab it's

for the younger generation people I

131

know use, this trading platform that

does crypto and things like that.

132

Midderanalytics: Robinhood is for the Zs,

133

Tim: I think so

134

Midderanalytics: What is it?

135

Tim: I always mix those up.

136

Midderanalytics: they?

137

Tim: Is it ZI think it's Z

138

Midderanalytics: Yeah, it's Z,

139

Tim: Millennial.

140

Midderanalytics: I think millennials are,

141

Tim: Yeah.

142

Midderanalytics: millennials

are old people now.

143

Robinhood is actually stepping

into this arena as well.

144

they rolled out a full market hub

where anyone can trade on sports,

145

politics, economics, whatever

cultural moment is popping up.

146

It's slick.

147

it's Robinhood, but it's also the first

time prediction markets are sitting

148

right next to your stocks in crypto.

149

Tim: Nothing's gonna bad happening, right?

150

Midderanalytics: sounds like a

secure future, that's for sure.

151

so basically what Robinhood is doing is

treating it like just another asset class,

152

which feels, a little, a little risky.

153

May, may a little optimistic on

the, you know, innovation side,

154

but a little risky on the I gonna

have a house to live next week?

155

Tim: I've always said what's

the difference between

156

investing versus gambling?

157

there's a fine line.

158

you can gamble in the stock market.

159

You could trade stock options put

money in, lose it all and people

160

leverage crypto could fall into that.

161

You know, prediction markets fall in

that as well, because the model, like

162

you said earlier, which is zero to

one, you know, where you could put, if

163

there's a 50% probability, you pay 50

cents, win a dollar or lose the 50 cents.

164

it's much riskier than buying a

stock and sitting on it for 10 years.

165

there's nuance there, but with that

166

Midderanalytics: Yeah, just

167

Tim: good,

168

Midderanalytics: So, yeah, on that

point, when you buy an option, you're

169

not really a part of a company, right?

170

You're just buying on the hope that

something's gonna go up or down, right?

171

Tim: technically the traditional

thing, when you buy one contract,

172

it's the right to buy or sell,

depending on what you're doing.

173

Buy or sell shares at a particular price.

174

So if I bought a call contract,

if you bought one call contract,

175

at $50, you have the right to buy

a hundred shares of stock at $50.

176

if it goes up to $80,

you've made $30 profit.

177

you have the right to it, but

you don't actually own the stock

178

itself, at least at that moment.

179

Going back to Robinhood, the

psychology changes on Robinhood,

180

the traitor basis is, is massive.

181

millions of normal people

trade probabilities.

182

And you're not just watching information

flow, you're watching sentiment,

183

emotion, heard behavior in real time.

184

Now, I think there's

pros and cons of that.

185

and depending on the people,

and we'll talk about it in a

186

moment, around sentiment and

emotions and things like that.

187

You could see wild swings of stuff.

188

Let's come back to that.

189

Another thing we really like, that

we're gonna show something in a,

190

in a moment here called Medicus.

191

so there's one more model, and

this is slightly different.

192

The other one, this is

more pure forecasting.

193

There's no money, no trading.

194

People are just submitting probability

predictions and the platform scores, kind

195

of like a community-based free play and

you can win prizes and stuff like that.

196

Midderanalytics: Well, yeah, you

win cash prizes, and that sounds

197

simple, but here's the kicker.

198

Some of the best forecasters

on Medic Medic, me, meta Medic.

199

Medic Medicus.

200

Tim: Get it right

201

Midderanalytics: I consistently

outperformed the experts in institutions.

202

forecasting is a skill and they have built

the world's best training ground for it.

203

more importantly, they offer these

tournaments for play, for people to go

204

in manually, which we'll do in a little

bit to show you the look and feel of it.

205

But they also have these like bot

where you actually create a bot to

206

do a forecasting model, and they

do a competition for that as well.

207

Tim: So MEUs Phil,

every time I say it, I'm

208

Midderanalytics: I think

209

Tim: not saying it right.

210

Midderanalytics: you

nailed it on that one.

211

Tim: It fills the gap of prediction

markets, cannot, long horizon question,

212

certificate, scientific question,

geopolitics, future tech scenarios, stuff

213

you can't really settle with $1 contract.

214

So it's large and more forward looking.

215

Midderanalytics: And sports Betts

and traders could learn a lot from

216

the calibration training on ISTs.

217

essentially what they're doing is

they're kind of using a learned model,

218

it teaches you to think in probabilities

instead of binaries, which is the

219

mindset most people never develop.

220

Tim: So I think we should segue, if

you wanna screen it, it'd be good time

221

to maybe segue to that site and just

so a, a few things that are actually

222

interesting about the site itself.

223

if we want to show Poly Market and Calci,

or Robinhood, we could do that as well.

224

Maybe start with poly market,

just so we can quickly talk

225

about, how it looks on the site.

226

It looks very similar

to a trading platform.

227

If you wanna go to poly marketer.com

228

Midderanalytics: Oh wow,

you're changing on the

229

Tim: doing a pivot.

230

Midderanalytics: I don't even have

an account up on market do com.

231

Tim: I know, but we can at

least show it on poly market.

232

if you wanna, you

233

Midderanalytics: we're giving

234

Tim: might share,

235

Midderanalytics: you a teaser, of me

Medicus so you can learn how to say it.

236

Tim: we.

237

Midderanalytics: we're back, we're back.

238

Here's probably market.

239

Wow, that looks busy, Tim.

240

Tim: It does, but if you compare

it to a DraftKings or FanDuel

241

there's a lot of betting odds

and, and, and stuff like that.

242

So I will say one sports betting,

once trading, they fall under

243

different regulatory bodies

and, and then things like that.

244

But here's just a quick example

of what, how poly market looks.

245

Pick something that you like here,

that you think is interesting.

246

Midderanalytics: I'm gonna go

with the will Netflix closed.

247

Warner Brothers by the end of 26.

248

Geez.

249

yeah.

250

Tim: I think paramount is trying

to do a takeover, aren't they?

251

Midderanalytics: Yeah.

252

they're never really offering any

more than what's already been denied.

253

so let's do, none of these

are really that interesting.

254

largest company at the end of 2025.

255

'cause this one's pretty much a done deal.

256

yeah, you click on this,

257

Tim: Yeah, so it's really, really simple.

258

You have 89 9% say yes.

259

Midderanalytics: you

260

Tim: That basically means,

261

Midderanalytics: And then you buy $10, or

I guess you could buy $1 you start off.

262

So it's essentially akin

to, a high, low situation.

263

if you wanna bet $11, you'd win

a whole dollar and 11 cents.

264

Tim: Yeah, 89% is basically,

89 cents to win a dollar

265

Midderanalytics: Yeah.

266

So

267

Tim: In this scenario.

268

Midderanalytics: done no

differently than a sporting bed.

269

these are very, very

similar to sporting right.

270

In that if a ton of people go heavy

on one side, it kind of adjusts

271

the price for the other side.

272

Correct?

273

Tim: Yeah.

274

Poly Mark is slightly

different than Calci,

275

Midderanalytics: but

276

Tim: effectively they'll move.

277

These are algorithmic

based on poly market.

278

I think Calci is based

off activity itself.

279

I, I think the main difference here

on, on prediction markets, you're not

280

betting against the house like you

would at DraftKings or FanDuel, you're

281

betting against other people like us.

282

you could probably beat us.

283

versus beating the house.

284

The house is much harder to beat

and they take a transaction fee.

285

Midderanalytics: like

286

Tim: like we said earlier,

just trades, mostly crypto.

287

Midderanalytics: Pretty

288

Tim: Pretty straightforward.

289

I think the other thing too is that

I know the regulators are real money,

290

Midderanalytics: Don't

291

Tim: don't allow these

other types of bets.

292

Midderanalytics: So

293

Tim: poly market's on the extreme

294

Midderanalytics: regulated

295

Tim: So they offer everything.

296

I mean, you can see at the very top

politics, sports, finance, crypto,

297

you name it, you can trade on it.

298

the great thing here is there's so

much that if you want to trade on

299

something, you could probably find it.

300

And find that market versus, you know,

if sports betting, the traditional

301

sports betting, the only thing

you're gonna see is, is, is sports.

302

But there's some limitations on that.

303

Like you can't, some, like, like PGCB

for instance, the regulatory body in

304

Pennsylvania change some rules and

you can't bet on, college players and

305

things like that because they're worried

about from a regulatory standpoint.

306

Midderanalytics: stuff.

307

Tim: poly mark is on the other extreme

where you can do everything you want.

308

Midderanalytics: Poly

market's like honey badger.

309

Tim: Exactly.

310

All right, so we could sit here

and probably look all this, but

311

let's switch over to Medicus

I'm on fire with that today.

312

Midderanalytics: Yeah.

313

You're getting good.

314

the great thing about me Medicis is that

it's based in Santa Cruz, California,

315

which is pretty interesting.

316

So essentially how this works,

is you set up an account that's

317

key, then you pop in a tournament.

318

There's no money.

319

You don't ever give them any

money, you pick a tournament.

320

and you play.

321

and then at the end of this tournament,

which they chose here, they'll do,

322

some kind of mathematical assessment.

323

And, and, you'll, you'll win.

324

The prize structure is based on here, in

this case you have a $2,500 forecasting

325

prize and a 2,500 commenting prize,

which I feel I'm probably gonna win.

326

I know.

327

'cause you know, my comments are topnotch.

328

And then, you look because my, because

my forecasting is definitely not

329

gonna be, and then you go in here

and then you go like, okay, great.

330

And.

331

which one do you wanna do, Tim, do you

wanna do, will Germany enact the Vee

332

before 2026 or do you wanna do how many?

333

We will reach the top five,

334

Tim: I think I probably more

relevant to the NCA college football.

335

Midderanalytics: Man,

336

Tim: not sure.

337

Midderanalytics: a learning

moment for the ACTE Act.

338

Vente.

339

Another word.

340

I can't tell.

341

So, you pop that open and here you

are and you can kind of do your bets.

342

so the question is how many of the

top four Cs will reach the semi-finals

343

of the 2024 NCA college football?

344

We are gonna know this in two days.

345

I think that's 'cause it's

after Saturday's games, right?

346

Tim, how many are gonna

make the semifinals?

347

All four.

348

Tim: Okay, let's talk about the four.

349

It's Indiana, Ohio State,

Georgia, and Texas Tech.

350

In that order of one to four,

351

Midderanalytics: Okay.

352

Tim: Looking at, I think Georgia

goes in 'cause they're gonna

353

play Ole Miss or Tulane Ole

Miss is probably gonna win that.

354

And Ole Miss is pretty good.

355

But I think Georgia is hot right now.

356

I think Ohio State has been one

of the best teams in the country.

357

They're playing Texas a and m or Miami.

358

I think they'll come out of that too.

359

So at least those two.

360

Midderanalytics: Indiana has a

361

Tim: has a tough road.

362

Midderanalytics: Alabama and

363

Tim: Oklahoma, they're playing each other.

364

They're gonna have to play one of the SEC

teams They're both really, really strong.

365

but Indiana has been fantastic.

366

Undefeated be Ohio State.

367

Texas I think is kinda the wild card.

368

Oregon might come out of it.

369

Midderanalytics: I

370

Tim: if I had to predict, I

would say there's probably three,

371

Midderanalytics: me again

372

Tim: that come

373

Midderanalytics: are the top four?

374

Indiana.

375

State,

376

Tim: Indiana, Ohio State,

Georgia, Texas Tech.

377

Midderanalytics: Not Ohio State.

378

The Ohio State University.

379

gotta be sensitive there.

380

so of those four, you think

three, which one do you, you

381

think tech is not gonna make it?

382

Tim: I think Texas

probably not gonna make it.

383

Midderanalytics: All right.

384

I agree with you.

385

let's do three now, and

you select this somehow.

386

oh yeah.

387

you can actually do a

value added thing here.

388

Interesting.

389

I'm gonna go zero on zero, not making it.

390

I'll do a little bit more there.

391

I'm gonna do zero there.

392

Does that make sense?

393

Tim: You had to be that a hundred percent.

394

You're too high on number three.

395

Midderanalytics: All right, fine.

396

Just go, go

397

Tim: You can do ball zero, if you wanna.

398

Midderanalytics: Yeah, I guess.

399

Oh, yeah.

400

Cool.

401

Well, you gotta give it something.

402

Tim: See that button right below it

says auto sum to a hundred percent.

403

do that.

404

Midderanalytics: Look at that.

405

Wow, Tim

406

Tim: I think the one boxes is the sliders.

407

You could type in there if you wanted to.

408

Midderanalytics: All right.

409

If for any reason the number

of advancing is still unknown,

410

this question will resolve.

411

And then the great thing about

this is it gives you sort of like a

412

background information on each one,

which is pretty, I'm not gonna read

413

it, but you know, do you know that?

414

Tim: I will say we're just randomly

going through this, but think about,

415

depending on some of this stuff, there's,

there's a ton of information, ton of

416

forecasting, ton of data you could use.

417

to get the, to fill all this in.

418

And this is prize pool based, but,

we didn't talk about sweeps, sweep

419

casinos and things like that.

420

imagine having a site where, you

have virtual currency you could buy

421

more currency and trade on different

things like this and you could

422

create a whole site based off this.

423

I mean, they, these guys could

expand to do something like that

424

and find a way to monetize it.

425

Midderanalytics: and I,

426

Tim: But they might have something

427

After.

428

Midderanalytics: and

429

Tim: What was that?

430

Midderanalytics: seems to be

some kind of participation too.

431

I could add a key factor.

432

I dunno what this would do, but

I mean, it gives it, you know,

433

participant a little bit of fun.

434

yeah, I've done that.

435

we've submitted our first

thing, in a few shows.

436

We'll come back and do some, follow up on

this, to give us an idea how well we did.

437

then you go back.

438

So, it seems like fun, you

know, but, do we have concerns

439

Tim: certainly.

440

I guess before we jump into some of

these concerns, why do these even matter?

441

Why do prediction Marks matter?

442

You know, they, they crowdsource

intelligence is its single number.

443

Midderanalytics: number

444

Tim: moves faster, more honestly,

the most traditional signal.

445

so it's really interesting.

446

It could probably be used in multiple

different use cases across, polls

447

to, trading like this into these

different markets and people are

448

starting to use this information.

449

Midderanalytics: Well, I mean, yeah, and

they crept up in the last election it was

450

actually more accurate than traditional

polls were for the presidential and

451

some of the lower down party races.

452

But yeah, so I think at the end of the

day they introduce a new kind of hedge,

453

I like that.

454

That's a nice little term.

455

stocks and options cover financial risk,

as we mentioned a little bit earlier,

456

but prediction markets let your hedge,

things like weather, regulatory decisions,

457

economic surprises, or even sports

outcomes it's a subtle but meaningful

458

shift in how businesses governments

and traders can manage uncertainty.

459

Tim: Yep.

460

it's forecasting a skill, not a guess.

461

with that, and, and something you just

mentioned is, is some of the concerns.

462

So let's, let's kind of talk through

those a little bit and just call it a few.

463

There's probably many more,

and love to hear your feedback

464

Midderanalytics: Yeah.

465

Tim: So.

466

Midderanalytics: Yeah.

467

And if anyone knew me back in the

day of work, I was always the one

468

who soured the goal with the concern.

469

And I think one of the first concerns

is manipulation in thin markets.

470

a thin market is a market that

doesn't have a lot of, engagement.

471

so manipulation here can act as

a diagnostic, if a market jumps

472

without reason, then the community

would become cautious and start

473

digging in for real information.

474

Tim: Yep.

475

That's a good one.

476

Another one, insider trading

or insider information.

477

predictive markets highlight

exactly where insiders might leak.

478

Which could create problematic things.

479

imagine elections or government

announcements, injuries, corporate

480

decisions, you often see the

price move before the news breaks.

481

it's fascinating, but it's

also a compliance challenge.

482

how do you solve that?

483

Midderanalytics: Yeah, unfortunately

there's a regulatory uncertainty,

484

and these platforms are scaling

faster than the legal framework

485

and governments can keep up.

486

just like crypto, just like a

lot of these, innovative, new

487

things that are popping up.

488

So, and thin markets, can amplify the

risk of manipulation or insider influence.

489

the real concern is that rules could

shift mid growth disrupting the entire

490

ecosystem right as it's trying to mature,

which would put a lot of disbelief in

491

this particular type of, structure.

492

Tim: Public perception is another one.

493

markets do not reflect beliefs.

494

They influence them.

495

a candidate trading at 80%, which would

be a high probability of a candidate

496

winning, could shape voter expectations.

497

So maybe people don't go out to vote

if they see it's really high and it

498

could be manipulated a team trading

at 90% can sway the fan narrative.

499

Midderanalytics: It

500

Tim: it can really

influence public perception.

501

So if you have a small community of people

that trade in this, so, so for example,

502

poly market, if I had to guess, 'cause

it's probably leans more sports related.

503

It probably leans more male and

a younger audience that are,

504

Midderanalytics: are

505

Tim: probably similar to crypto

as well, that we're trading that.

506

But since it's a small community

of people, it doesn't necessarily

507

mean that's a representation of

the entire market as a whole.

508

And beliefs as, a community or a

country or something like that.

509

Midderanalytics: Yeah, 100%.

510

So the prediction market, which

is basically a economic opinion,

511

really, creates a feedback loop.

512

And that feedback loop can be

powerful, but it also can be messy

513

and, uninformed in a lot of ways.

514

we're kind of at the beginning part of

this, where do you think we're Going here?

515

Tim: It's hard to predict where

we're going in the future, these have

516

exploded, over the last few years.

517

if you see some of the valuations, I don't

off the top of my head, but I was reading

518

something the other week that, almost

overnight, I think Kashi's evaluation

519

just completely skyrocketed within a

month or two from the last valuation

520

Midderanalytics: market

521

Tim: market is gonna keep innovating,

just talking about some of the ones

522

we mentioned, they're more globally so

they have much more broad of everything

523

you can trade in all these markets.

524

So they're gonna keep innovating,

keep adding more and more markets.

525

Calci will probably push more deeper

into financial grade, event hedging.

526

Midderanalytics: So

527

Tim: So you're gonna see a lot more

traders, and other people going

528

into the calcium markets as well

because it has a regulated format.

529

Midderanalytics: and

530

Tim: Robinhood is probably the

younger audience that has mass scale.

531

and you're already starting

to see sports bets.

532

I, I sports betting platforms like

DraftKings already announced something.

533

FanDuel has announced something.

534

I, I can't remember if they

launched or they're very close to

535

launching, fanatics I, I believe just

launched their predictive markets.

536

So you're, you're seeing those,

that, that trending towards that.

537

I think it's opportunity for the grow,

the market share and to, go outside of the

538

traditional sports betting environment.

539

So you're gonna see more sports

companies transitioning to

540

prediction markets as well.

541

Midderanalytics: Fanatics,

542

Tim: What do you think,

543

Midderanalytics: I mean,

no, that's awesome.

544

But, where is, Calci headquartered?

545

Do you know?

546

Tim: good question.

547

Midderanalytics: you don't

548

Tim: Don't,

549

Midderanalytics: don't have to know

550

Tim: I think it's, I wanna say

somewhere in the us New York

551

Midderanalytics: New York at,

552

Tim: is there.

553

Midderanalytics: are they traded

on the stock exchange or no?

554

Tim: not the moment

555

Midderanalytics: Okay.

556

Sorry, I didn't mean

557

Tim: I.

558

Midderanalytics: I didn't mean to put

you on the spot, in the long run, we will

559

even see a global Probability index that

averages prices across platforms to give

560

a single consensus view of major events.

561

to be honest, I look at this now

and I just think of, remember

562

the movie Trading Places?

563

Dan Akroyd and Eddie Murphy.

564

I

565

Tim: Yep.

566

Midderanalytics: to our earlier

comment about the Mercantile Exchange

567

that was actually Philadelphia.

568

but yeah, it's just kind of,

569

Tim: It was

570

Midderanalytics: like.

571

Tim: oranges, Right.

572

Midderanalytics: up?

573

Tim: And that

574

Midderanalytics: Frozen?

575

Tim: was trading oranges.

576

Midderanalytics: orange juice.

577

Frozen orange juice futures.

578

Tim: we just dated ourselves.

579

Midderanalytics: we did, but

580

Tim: It's great movie.

581

Midderanalytics: did.

582

Tim: Great movie, though.

583

Midderanalytics: I mean,

that movie keeps giving.

584

this will give a consensus view

of major events moving forward.

585

I think, love it or hate it,

they're here to stay and they're

586

probably gonna get much bigger.

587

Tim: Yeah, they're driven information and

I think the reality they're permanent.

588

They're not going anywhere.

589

on a side note, two old guys Mortimer,

that are begging for money I think

590

they're merged between both movies,

coming to America and Trading spaces.

591

I think they went bankrupt in

Trading Spaces, but they're also in

592

the movie of, of, coming to America

and there are beggars, like two

593

old guys begging on the streets.

594

So it connected those

two Eddie Murphy movies.

595

Midderanalytics: they do come back

as beggars, which is, a great, we,

596

Tim: Neither here nor there,

597

Midderanalytics: should actually

incorporate the dollar bet.

598

I think that's a fantastic idea.

599

if you're,

600

Tim: but I will

601

Midderanalytics: if you remember

602

Tim: go ahead.

603

Midderanalytics: If you remember

604

Tim: I could also see environments

where there's corporate risk hedging.

605

Through event contracts.

606

if they're worried about certain

markets, they might hedge themselves

607

by looking at these predictive markets.

608

maybe it's economic news.

609

let's say they're some manufacturing

company and they're worried

610

about tariffs and then there's

probably something on poly market.

611

They go in there and, and.

612

Bet that tariffs are gonna happen.

613

And so if they have one side, they, they

risk, their company on tariffs, they're

614

hedging themselves against tariffs.

615

And I could definitely see corporate

entities starting to do this quite a bit.

616

So there's, there's a lot of happening.

617

It's early, early days.

618

I think that gonna scale and be hugely

talked about over the coming years.

619

Midderanalytics: Yeah.

620

In fact I'm trying to remember the name

of the company, but there's a company

621

that basically leases out data centers.

622

So when companies like Facebook say

they're gonna build a $30 billion data

623

center, they're not really doing it.

624

They're actually leasing that out.

625

there's one company, I wish I knew

the name of it, but they used to

626

be in crypto, but they're like

one of the major players in this.

627

there's like a default because

they're essentially being traded

628

like a credit default swap.

629

you're gonna have real time

prediction models for stuff like that.

630

We'll dig a little deeper into that later.

631

it was just really interesting and

when Tim was mentioning that last pen,

632

I just kind of brought to, brought it

to mind, friends of mind, so to speak.

633

Tim: Yeah, and if you, if you wanna go,

we can go deeper on the subject as well.

634

We kind of wanna start with just like high

level introductory, around what this is.

635

I, I, I, I, I think there's probably

legal conversations we could have around

636

this where there's a battle between.

637

the states and regulating

versus the prediction markets.

638

like Cal State is being

regulated on the federal level.

639

we could probably debate on

that and whether sports betting

640

or sports prediction markets

should be allowed or not.

641

So there's a lot of contention there

as well, but there's probably tons of

642

things we could talk about around this.

643

Midderanalytics: do you think it's odd

that in the US where online gambling

644

was like EB Boden for so many years and

now we've just gone the polar opposite?

645

Tim: yes, but it was

only a matter of time.

646

I think you could say one thing

is money because it's ways to

647

tax people that betting just like

lottery and things like that.

648

I think the other side is people

got more comfortable with certain

649

betting and structure and the

reality, it was already happening

650

behind the scenes in these markets.

651

I generally subscribe to the, shine a

light on something like that and regulate

652

it and put some controls around it.

653

Midderanalytics: Do you think because

our former company was so regulated and

654

well respected because of the regulation,

you think that's added into this trust?

655

Just a thought.

656

Tim: Possibly.

657

I, I will say there's downside

of regulat regulated markets.

658

I mean, if you look at poly

market who's not regulated.

659

They can be a lot more innovative

off a lot more markets,

660

can do a lot more things.

661

They moved into crypto so

they don't have to deal with

662

payments, like visas and cash.

663

Midderanalytics: There's

664

Tim: there's a balancing act, which

is probably a whole other conversation

665

but there's a balancing act here around

how much is too much regulation, you

666

Midderanalytics: I thought you were

667

Tim: know, where

668

Midderanalytics: you were

gonna go full Anne Rand on me,

669

Tim: nah, I mean, it's.

670

Midderanalytics: is it a Rand?

671

I don't know.

672

Tim: I think everyone knows

who you're talking about, so

673

I think we're fine Anyhow.

674

that's it for today.

675

Give us some feedback.

676

Tell us what you, want

to hear, love to listen.

677

We could bring some guests

onto the show as well.

678

Talk more about prediction markets.

679

we'll hit a few other topics

in the coming podcast.

680

thank you.

681

Midderanalytics: Yeah.

682

Thanks for, stopping by

and giving us a listen.

683

And I think that's a wrap.

684

Tim, do you wanna say goodbye or

do you wanna say meta calculus?

685

Medicus me MEUs?

686

I guess not.

687

Okay.

688

Bye.

689

Tim: thank you.