Investing amid uncertainty is the focus of this week's Metcalf Money Moment, as Jeb, Ethan, and Eric unpack what the data say about market volatility during wars and elections. Across 20 major geopolitical events since World War II, stocks recovered in an average of 47 trading days. Election year investing also shows surprising strength, with 83% of presidential election years producing positive S&P 500 returns. The team explores how to protect your portfolio during geopolitical uncertainty and why staying the course almost always beats reacting to headlines.

What you will Learn in this Episode:

✅ How investing during uncertainty has historically played out across major conflicts, including the Korean War, Cuban Missile Crisis, and 9/11, and why stock market recovery tends to happen faster than most investors expect.

✅ Why election year investing is less about which party wins and more about the market cycle itself, and what the data shows about midterm elections and the strong performance that typically follows them.

✅ Practical steps for managing market volatility, including opportunistic rebalancing, building a cash allocation buffer, and why dollar cost averaging can smooth your entry point during turbulent periods.

Tune into the Metcalf Money Moment podcast for expert insights on wealth management and retirement planning! Join Jeb, Ethan, and Eric for practical Estate Planning strategies that you can implement to unlock financial clarity and confidence. Listen now to inspire your financial journey!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction to investing during uncertainty, war, and what markets historically do during geopolitical risk

03:41 Eric reviews stock market recovery patterns across the Korean War, Cuban Missile Crisis, and Gulf War

10:07 Jeb breaks down election year investing data, party performance, and the truth about political impact on the S&P 500

13:50 What the midterm election cycle means for portfolio management and why 2026 may see a significant market drawdown

16:18 Discussion of diversification, rebalancing, risk and the importance of cash allocation

22:45 The team tackles the question of market timing and why dollar cost averaging versus lump sum investing matters

25:01 Why compound interest and disciplined savings rates build more wealth than trying to time or predict the market

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

💎 History shows that geopolitical risk creates short-term fear, but investor emotions are often the biggest threat to long-term wealth. The average drawdown across 20 major conflicts was just 5%, and markets recovered within an average of 47 trading days.

💎 A well-structured financial plan aligned with your risk tolerance is your best defense against volatility. Clients who maintain a stable asset allocation for one to two years rarely need to react when markets drop.

💎 Compound interest and disciplined saving rates build more wealth over time than any attempt at market timing. The most financially successful people focus on what they can control, not on predicting the next crisis.

DISCLAIMER:

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax or legal advice. We recommend discussing your particular situation with a qualified tax or legal advisor.

RESOURCES MENTIONED:

Metcalf Partners - Website

Jeb Graham - LinkedIn

Ethan Hutcheson - LinkedIn

Eric Wymore - LinkedIn

Now, your host.[00:00:30]

Jeb Graham: Welcome to Metcalf Money Moment podcast. My name is Jeb Graham here with Ethan Hutchinson and Eric Wymore. How are we doing today guys? And

Eric Wymore: as well Doing well. Good morning.

With less than 25 mile an hour wind. And so that's, [00:01:00] yeah. Springtime in Kansas. So, um, well today what we want to talk about is, um, you know, something that I think is, is kind of personal 'cause, 'cause we go through this a lot as financial advisors working with clients, which is helping them [00:01:15] kind of navigate, you know, their emotions and whether it's their emotions and just their money.

Um, and both of those things create a lot of uncertainty. Uh, and so today I think what we want to talk about is just kind of, [00:01:45] you know, things that you can do with money during that time and also maybe some, some myths, uh, or whether, whether it's myths. But really just start looking at the data. 'cause I think one of the questions that we get from a lot of people during times of uncertainty is, should I be doing something different with [00:02:00] my money right now, based on what is going on in the headlines, right?

The headlines would say versus what the data, uh, says on some of those things. So today we're gonna go beyond the headlines and [00:02:30] we're gonna look at, we're really gonna kind of dig in to data, and I'm gonna drop just a couple of statistics that, um, you know, that I grabbed this morning about war and about, um, geopolitical events.

And we're gonna dig [00:03:15] Eric. Basically what we're gonna do is Eric's gonna dig deeper into markets during times of war. And then we're gonna come back to me, uh, and talk a little bit about, uh, you know, election years, whether it's a presidential election year or a midterm election year. And then Ethan's gonna wrap us [00:03:30] up with, you know, from a client's perspective, uh, you know, what should you be doing during these times and what are the right reactions?

So, um, Eric, you want us, let's, let's dig into to the times of war here.

You know, conflicts do [00:04:15] happen. And, and, and I think as an advisor you're kind of looking at, you know, history and we'll use, you know, obviously there's the famous phrase, you know, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. And you go back to, to look at past events and, and what has happened, what happens and, and [00:04:30] what's the outcome.

And it's so easy to sell, you know, portfolios with clicks of buttons right now, and you can, you know, eliminate or, uh, uh, sell your entire [00:05:00] portfolio and. And that kind of continues to escalate and all of a sudden the market drops significantly. And then, you know, cooler heads start thinking about things through and maybe it's not as bad and the market recover.

In just a couple, a couple of weeks. Um, you know, we had that kind of a drop, and over the next few months it, it, it completely recovered, but then also went on to have like a 20 or 22% return during the, uh, [00:05:45] the, during the war. And I don't think, we're certainly not saying that you have to have war to have a positive market, but that was certainly an outcome of the Korean War.

Um, another one that, uh, comes to mind is the Gulf War in the 1990, uh, you had. Again, a, a steep drop of 14 to 15% in two months. Uh, followed by, you know, it took a little [00:06:30] while, but followed by a recovery into 1991. That was over 30%. Uh, so quick drop took a little bit, you know, a few months of turning around and then all of a sudden a recovery.

Um, it took a [00:07:00] few months, but it did recover that, that portion of the decline, uh, and provided some stability into the market. Uh, and then the most recent one was the Russian Ukraine, uh, war that started in 2022. Uh, that [00:07:15] market, part of the, uh, the s and p dropped about 8%, you know, following the invasion and the conflict, um, certainly had a impact on oil prices, uh, and other commodity prices.

And much like, you know, any kind of a recession where the markets actually start to recover before the conflict ends or before the, the worst part of the conflict, you'll actually start to see the [00:08:00] market recovery. Again, if there's, the economy's struggling a little bit like it was in the Gulf War where we were actually in a recession or nine 11 when we were actually, you know, in a big reset from the.com might take a little bit longer.

Ethan Hutcheson: Would, would you say there's a statement out there, it's the market doesn't wait [00:08:45] for certainty. It moves when uncertainty begins to clear. So would you say that. A lot of the initial, like all the six that you just kind of ran through the first couple of months is kind of like a shock in the market. Right?

Eric Wymore: Yeah, I had a, I mean, that's a good point. I had a, you know, a, a wise person tell me once [00:09:15] that fear stands for false expectations appearing real.

So let's start recovering even though it might get [00:09:45] worse. The, the, the news and the information, but the, the overall fear, uh, is not gonna happen. And you start to see that recovery. You're right.

Whether it's just politics in general or it's elections, um, I think specifically around election times is when a lot of [00:10:15] fear kind of comes in. So I really wanna take this from a place, you know, of fear and I think, you know what we hear, and I'm sure you guys would agree, what we hear from from clients is we have, by the way, we have a lot of clients that are Republicans.

And so, and they think it probably has more of an effect on the, on the economy and on the stock market than it does, uh, a lot of times. So, so where it feels [00:11:00] personal, I think for your portfolio, the data. Says differently as far as kind of how, how markets react. And I think what we want to do here is kind of go through, number one is presidential elections and who's in the White House and does that matter?

If you look at it, the s and p 500 is average 14% annually after dividends, regardless of which party has held the presidency. And there's really been no [00:11:45] long-term bias between either party. Okay. And I think if you look at some of the strongest presidencies, meaning presidencies, where the market has done the best, you have people from both sides.

You know, this election's different. And by the way. [00:12:15] I don't think we disagree. Right. I do. I don't think there's any doubt in my mind that, that there is more political divisiveness. It does seem, uh, like things are maybe a little bit more volatile politically than they've been. Uh, however, I would say [00:12:30] in general it's, it's a trend for people to think this time's different.

Uh, you know, that happened. S and p Rose 42% in the 14 months following that, I'd say the, even this last election, people were really worried on both sides. If somebody got in that either the [00:13:00] market was gonna crash or it was gonna run, uh, obviously the Republicans, uh, pretty much won everything in 2024. Now here we are, um, you know, with the market having a great year last year.

And I think that's, history has said that time and time again, uh, and I think, you know, [00:13:45] hope, obviously we can't predict the future, but there's a good chance that it continues to happen in that regard. So. So let's pivot a little bit and talk about specifically this year in er, midterm election. So in 2026, every house seat is up for reelection and [00:14:00] about a third of the Senate is up for reelection.

Uh, and in midterm election years, we have an average intra year drawdown of [00:14:30] 18% at some point before November. Okay. And so I think that's a good way just to brace clients and, and everybody that's listening to this is, is that if we have a big draw down this year, which we may have one. Um, and obviously anything can happen in any year, [00:14:45] but if we do have a big draw down, it's not, it's not necessarily based on politics as much as it's just, it's kind of how the market cycle and the election cycles work together to a degree.

It's more just about the cycle itself. And, and, uh, you know, what we've learned [00:15:30] as well is a lot of times the choppiness in election years, whether that's a presidential election year or midterm, uh, is that the market doesn't really like uncertainty. But once that certainty, you know, is there, and it doesn't really matter what the outcome is, it's [00:15:45] just that the process is over, a lot of time the market moves in a positive way based on that information.

So, um, I think the natural. Uh, progression here is Ethan. Let's talk about what [00:16:15] our clients should do and what makes sense during times like this.

And, you know, you might. Turn on the news and the market's down 5% for the week and they're thinking, oh, the million dollar portfolio I had, it's down 5%. How am I gonna recover from [00:16:45] this? And it, you do his, if history repeats itself, you do recover. It might not be the next day, it might not be the next month, but, but there is a long-term mindset that we need to have, uh, as, as investors.

So trying to weed out all the noise, uh, you know, to Jim's point, every time you turn on the tv, there's, it's due and gloom a lot of the time. So, um, one thing that I practice personally is, is when we're in these transition periods or these times of [00:17:30] crisis, i, I, I don't log into my 401k or brokerage account or anything.

So talking about opportunities and what you can do during these times. You know, there's a lot of conversations we have with clients as they're becoming clients and we [00:18:00] talk about, you know, risk tolerance and diversification, cash, cash allocation, and things like that. So if you're in retirement and you're using your assets as income for spending or vacations or what have you, you know, you don't want [00:18:15] everything to be invested in the s and p 500.

[00:18:45] So positioning your portfolio and your overall financial plan is, is paramount. It's very, very important, especially when, if you're a nervous investor, um, aligning your financial plan with your risk tolerance so that when we do have these times of uncertainty. You know, [00:19:00] and we can sit down and review your actual plan with you.

The hardest thing to do is to not react. And we, we get that we're all investors as well. Not only do we help clients, but. Obviously we're, we're invested in the [00:19:30] market too. We understand that emotions run really high. Um, when you bring politics into it and religion and other things that are out there that are really close to people's chests, um, emotions just can go haywire.

It's kind of forcing you to sell high in some assets and buy low in some other assets. So looking at opportunistic rebalancing, and if you're really aggressive and the market's down 10 or 15%, you've got cash on the sidelines. Well, that, that's on sale. Um, it [00:20:15] realistically, if I go and look at a t-shirt that I really love and it's 40 bucks.

But if we see a pullback and we see an opportunity there, I'd rather buy a stock at a 10% discount than something at its all time high. So thinking contrarian a little bit and trying to. Not pay attention to your emotions. I know it's [00:20:45] really, really hard to do, but those are little practical steps, little things you can do to try to get ahead of the curve.

Um,

Jeb Graham: I think, I think Ethan, what I'm hearing you say there is you wanna buy low and sell high, or you wanna buy high and sell higher, right? That's

I've seen, I've seen [00:21:15] some, some turmoil that's happened in the markets. But you look back at, you know, when you're in 2005, think about I was, you know, when 2005 and you're an investor, you didn't know that 2008 was coming. And so living in that fear of always thinking, [00:21:30] oh gosh, next year's, the year or the year after, this is the year recession's coming.

I think those are the three most important things you can do.

If you've got cash, that's the time to dump it in. All those things that you've kind of already said, but that, that is, uh. You know, viewing those, trying to [00:22:15] flip that script and viewing those as opportunities instead of, you know, detrimental things is a, is a really good mindset in my opinion there. So,

Ethan Hutcheson: yeah.

Um, so, you know, how would you guys approach that question, um, when, when you get those client calls? [00:22:45]

Jeb Graham: Well, I, I will tell you, I don't know, Eric, if you wanna go first or you want me to, but I

Ethan Hutcheson: Yeah, go ahead. I,

Jeb Graham: yeah, yeah. I, I, I would say, 'cause we could, we get that question all the time, is people, people ask, you know, is now a good time to get in the market?

Do we do something a little bit more stable? Uh, and so on and so forth. And I think this could be a whole nother. Podcast is, is when we talk about [00:23:30] dollar cost averaging. That's something that we've talked about a lot. And if clients don't know what that is, dollar cost averaging would be when, as opposed to if you gave us a million dollars as opposed to investing all million dollars, maybe we invest a hundred thousand of it each month for the next 10 [00:23:45] months.

So a lot of times by delaying getting into the market, all you're doing is buying it at a higher and higher and higher price each month. And there are those times when dollar cost averaging works out. But um, anyway, that was a [00:24:15] long. Answer to a short question and, but, uh, I, I think there, there are th some things that depend, but if you're a long-term investor, I'd say Right, right now this minute Yeah.

Is the time to get in.

Ethan Hutcheson: That's the

Eric Wymore: answer

Ethan Hutcheson: I was looking

Correct [00:24:45] scenarios or what, what kind of situations we're that we're dealing with, what kind of risk are we dealing with, you know, before we just, you know, go ahead and click the buy button. But, uh, you know, asking those questions is a good, good. That's the way to do [00:25:00] it.

Ethan Hutcheson: Going back to, you know, the volatility thing and you know, thinking about the most successful people that you know, when you asked them, how did you make all your money's not.

Um, so you're not gonna. Uh, invest your way out of that. Uh, you need to look at what you [00:25:30] can control, and that comes back to your savings rates, your diversification, and kind of how you've positioned your overall financial plan. So just think about those people that you know that are really well off and have done the right stuff throughout the years.

Jeb Graham: They might have had a couple wins in there, but that, that's not what the, you know what I mean? That's not what drove it. I, I totally agree with that and that's a super good point because I think a lot of people do.

So well, very good [00:26:15] guys. This has been, uh, a good podcast and hopefully everyone that listens to it gets a little bit of value out of it. And by the way. We will see. I'm hopefully we're not in a war anymore. Uh, you know, by the time people actually. Listen to this podcast, which will be, you know, two, [00:26:30] around two weeks from now.

So, um, this is Metcalf Money Moment podcast signing off.

Disclaimer: Jeb Graham, Ethan Hutchinson and Eric Wymore are registered representatives with and securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA SI PC Investment advice offered through W CG Wealth Advisors, a registered investment advisor, W CG Wealth Advisors and Metcalf Partners Wealth Management [00:27:15] is AR separate entity entities from LPL Financial.

The opinions voiced in this podcast are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual to determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you. Consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision.