Remember that CPI is not inflation

• Mar 2023 US CPI was 5%, down from 6% in Feb and off its June 2022 peak of 9.1%
• Mar 2023, the food component was up 8.5% but has come off its Aug 2022 11.4% peak
• Mar 2023, the energy component was down 6.4, a massive fall from its 41.6% June 2022 peak
• In Mar 2023, all other items were flat MoM at 5.6%, down from Mar 2022 6.5% high
• Without a surge in oil US, we forecast CPI could end 2023 at 4%

Two things that could derail YE23 4% …

• An oil price surge would push end-2023 slightly higher than 4%, but only slightly because it takes a few months for an oil price rise to impact CPI
• A US recession could quickly bring CPI below 4%

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