Welcome to this week’s episode of Optimal Insights. In this episode, our experts discuss the current state of the mortgage market, highlighting the challenges and opportunities as interest rates hover above 6.8%. The discussion emphasizes the rise in cash-out refinancing due to significant home equity, even as overall volume struggles in the face of increasing rates. Experts provide insights into recent economic indicators, including inflation readings and retail sales data, which remain closely monitored by the market. Additionally, the episode features a detailed conversation about mortgage servicing rights (MSRs). Listeners will gain a clearer understanding of how MSRs impact loan pricing and the strategic considerations for lenders as they navigate the evolving market dynamics heading into 2025.

Key Takeaways:

• The current economic climate shows rising interest rates, impacting mortgage volume and profitability.
• Cash-out refinances are gaining traction as homeowners tap into their home equity despite rising rates.
• The upcoming IMN conference will provide valuable insights into the mortgage servicing rights market.
• Market trends indicate a potential slowdown as we approach the holiday season with less activity.
• Understanding mortgage servicing rights is crucial for loan originators to effectively price loans.

Tune in to gain valuable insights to help you stay ahead and maximize your profitability in the ever-evolving mortgage landscape. #OptimizeYourAdvantage #MaximizeProfitability

Hosts and Guests:

Hosts:

• Jim Glennon, VP of Hedging & Trading Client Services, Optimal Blue
• Jeff McCarty, VP of Product Management – Hedging and Trading, Optimal Blue

Guests:

• Ben Larcombe
• Vimi Vasudeva

Production Team:

• Executive Producer: Sara Holtz
• Producer: Matt Gilhooly

Commentary included in the podcast shall not be construed as, nor is Optimal Blue providing, any legal, trading, hedging, or financial advice.

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Keywords: Real-time data insights, Capital markets commentary, Mortgage industry, Profitability, Lenders, Investors, Rate fluctuations, Mortgage landscape, Expert advice, Optimal Blue, Secondary marketing automation, Pricing accuracy, Margin protection, Risk management, Originators, Originations

Mentioned in this episode:

Be part of the event that will shape mortgage innovation and help to maximize lenders’ profitability. Don’t miss the inaugural Optimal Blue Summit from February 3–5, 2025, at the Marriott Marquis San Diego Marina. Secure your spot and register today – summit.optimalblue.com

Welcome to Optimal Insights, your weekly source.

For real time rate data and expert capital markets commentary brought to you by Optimal Blue.

Let's dive in and help you maximize.

Your profitability this week.

Welcome to Optimal Insights, your weekly source for timely market analysis and expert commentary from Optimal Blue.

I'm your host, Jim Glennon, vice president of hedging and Trading client services at Optimal Blue.

Our clients and industry partners have long relied on Optimal Blue for trusted insights and commentary.

And these podcasts are an evolution of our commitment to keeping the industry informed.

Let's dive into today's episode.

Welcome team.

How's everybody doing this morning?

Doing great.

Today we've got, as always, we've got Jeff McCarty, director of product management.

We've got Ben Larkham, who's new to this podcast.

So Ben's first time on the podcast, but you may know him from our weekly updates and our webinars.

We also have Vimy joining us today.

We're going to talk to talk to Ben here in a sec to find out what's going on in the market.

So as originators and capital markets folks, you know, what should we be watching as we approach the holidays.

And then Vimy is going to talk to us a bit about mortgage servicing rights, also known as msrs.

So we're going to demystify some things there when we get into that.

But first, Jeff and I actually misintroduced Jeff.

Jeff now has a new title on our team.

Jeff is vice president of hedging and trading product here at Optimal Blue.

Just accepted a new position.

So congrats on that, Jeff.

Yeah, thanks, Jeff.

Market has slowed down a bit.

You know, we're getting into the holidays here again.

We'll talk with Ben in a few minutes about, you know, what we should be paying attention to as we get into the holidays and you know, volume gets a little bit thin just across all markets.

We'll see what's going on with mortgages.

But you know, right now, as you guys probably know, we're over 6.8% on the OBMMI.

So interest rates starting to tick up on the conventional 30 year back, close to 7% volume as well, struggling because of that.

A bright piece of that though, I would say is cash out refis.

I think with the 18 trillion ish dollars worth of equity that is in homes right now, there are some folks that are looking to tap into that regardless of where rates are.

I think, you know, you look at the debt cycle and where credit card balances are and car payment balances and that sort of thing.

You start to, you know, there are folks that absolutely have to tap into that, that equity without moving, you know, without selling their homes.

So seeing a lot of good activity and cash out refis that I'd probably expect to go into the next year.

Yeah, rates aren't going to, you know, sell themselves.

New loans aren't just going to come in on their own like we were hoping unfortunately.

Just know with this backup in rates and still super high and you know, Ben will get into a lot of that here in the market.

Update did want to do a quick plug for our sister podcast, the Market Advantage Podcast.

Had Dave Savage from Mortgage Coach on this past week.

Really good discussion about how loan officers can, you know, become kind of trusted financial advisors for their borrower, which obviously with where we are in rates, where loans aren't just coming in the door on their own, becoming a trusted financial advisor advisor is certainly a really good way where you can try to generate some volume, whether it be for cash out refis or various purchase options that are out there in the market.

Yeah, great point, Jeff.

Definitely give that a listen once a month.

Market Advantage, you can get that on all the platforms the same places you can find this podcast.

Also a plug.

We hope that you're making plans to attend our summit in San Diego early next year.

That will be February 3rd through the 5th at the Marriott Marquee San Diego Marina.

So again, this is a client exclusive event featuring sessions of all types, right, for all types of roles within a mortgage organization.

You know, we'll talk through trends with AI, we'll talk about profitability strategies, market insights and a whole ton more.

Not just secondary or capital markets focused.

We've got some top originators coming in to talk on panels.

We've got some industry partners, some CRMs talking about lead generation, what type of tools are out there in the industry, how you can think about generating more production more effectively.

Yeah, just a ton of good best practices regardless again of what your role is within a mortgage organization.

And we will have some really great capital markets sessions too.

We'll have investors speaking, dealers, clients and Vimy will be hosting an MSR session talking through what the current state of the MSR market.

And of course as we mentioned on the last podcast, we're going to have a ton of great speakers, but a couple that I think right now we'd like to announce and have kind of stick out there is Tony Hawk is one of them.

A legendary skateboarder, Tony Hawk will be speaking at our at our conference as well as Mike Fraten.

Tony, who is the chief economist for the NBA.

Super cool.

Should be some fun conversations there.

Definitely.

So join us.

Register on our website.

I think early bird pricing is still out there through the end of this month.

All right, Jeff, let's go check in with Ben, see what's going on in the markets.

Let's do it.

All right.

Welcome, Ben.

First time on the podcast.

Thank you.

Thank you.

So, jumping right into it, can you give us a quick recap of what's happened in the economy over the past week?

Yeah, yeah.

So, you know, nothing too crazy over the last week where I think the market is still focused pretty heavily on the election and potential policy outcomes, but we did get some big releases over the last week, and thankfully they came in largely in line.

So inflation, a couple big readings.

CPI was up 0.2% month over month, 2.6% year over year.

All of that's basically exactly as expected.

So no surprises.

The core number on CPI, 0.3% month over month, which I think is a touch higher than expected.

And then 3.3% year over year.

A lot of that being driven kind of by the boogeyman of shelter inflation, which we've talked about for quite some time at this point.

Owner's equivalent rent within that break down, like that's a third of cpi.

Most of that being owner's equivalent rent, which we've talked about.

It's its usefulness as a metric for housing inflation.

It's obviously not perfect.

Operates at a huge lag.

We're seeing that massive lag.

So that was pretty stubborn at 0.4%.

And it being such a heavy weight in the CPI, markets didn't react too terribly to the CPI number, but definitely a number that is kind of lingering out there.

And plus just some potential events on the horizon that could bring some inflation challenges as well.

I think markets certainly have that in the back of their mind.

Overall, ppi, so what producers are paying for goods and services was up in a similar fashion.

Right.

As expected, but leveling off to almost being a little spike up from.

From the previous month.

So, yeah, definitely nothing too crazy there, but kind of a sign that this fight to get inflation back below 2.5% even or down to 2% is going to be tricky and we'll see how policy collides with that going forward.

And then the only other really meaningful data I would say we got was retail sales, which was a slight beat.

September was revised up sharply.

That's honestly probably the bigger headline is, you know, we got basically a Doubling of September retail sales from 0.4% to 0.8%.

So certainly a sign that the resilient.

Yeah, for sure.

We're spending still, man.

No matter what, we're still spending dollars.

The US consumer keeps chugging along I think is the main takeaway there and you know, likely will be the case for the time being.

And honestly the growth prospects of the US economy are quite strong and a lot of the potential policy, which I'll get into in a second is probably going to push growth up higher.

The question is, does inflation also get stoked further?

And I think that's what bond markets are grappling with right now.

Right.

And everybody wants growth and homeowners want home price appreciation and homes are billed as an investment.

But yet it's always been sticky for me.

We have this component of CPI that is basically directly tied to inflation in the price of homes versus the price of a good or something that you buy.

It's literally again, we all want that price inflation on residential real estate, but yet it drives some of these numbers higher as a boogeyman.

Right, exactly.

And you know, we could get in into the weeds here on like what owner's equivalent rent is exactly trying to measure.

But at the end of the day, yeah, it's trying to kind of capture home prices without it explicitly.

You know, it basically asks people what you could rent your primary residents out for.

And so there's a lot of potential flaws in that.

But you're spot on, Jim, in that I'm not sure we want home prices explicitly in CPI measures for a lot of reasons.

That probably leads to much higher inflation figures, especially if you look at the last 20, 30 years for sure with a few bumps in that road obviously.

But yeah, it's a double edged sword.

But yeah, it's certainly a tricky paradigm there.

I think we'll be talking about that more and more obviously in the coming months.

We'll continue to be a focus.

We've talked about supply and obviously the combination of supply and home prices closely linked.

So keep watching that.

So you alluded to the results of the election over the past week.

We've got some clarity over who's controlling Congress.

Yeah, yeah.

And I think we've touched on it a bit in this podcast and kind of across the desk.

But the bond market is obviously trying to price it and do policy kind of on a daily basis as we're getting kind of New developments?

No major new developments, but a lot of appointments.

And we also now know that Republicans will control the House, the Senate and the presidency.

So that gives them a pretty good leeway to implement policy that they deem favorable.

And Trump has campaigned heavily on tariffs, immigration and tax cuts.

And all those things will be very important to the bond market in terms of policy specifics.

So we're going to have to wait to see exactly what those things look like.

But it does seem like Republicans are going to have some room to get what they want done on their agenda.

And we're starting to see kind of the appointees begin to take shape, but also some potential resistance.

We have a, or will have a new Senate majority leader.

John Thune of South Dakota, you know, will be the new Senate majority leader.

Kind of a little bit of a blow perhaps to, you know, maybe some in the Trump crowd.

There was a lot of kind of momentum forming behind Rick Scott.

And I think this matters to the bond market is because how, how much the Senate GOP is willing to push back against Trump.

And maybe some of his policy ideas I think is going to be a, a key dynamic in terms of, you know, do, does inflation reignite, do we get some more aggressive economic policy that we haven't seen for some time that the bond market might not be all that in favor of?

So, yeah, a lot of interesting dynamics there.

We're getting drama even over the weekend in terms of treasury secretary.

So the two leading candidates, Scott Besant and Howard Lutnick, who is the CEO of Canard Fitzgerald, and Besant being a former hedge fund manager, I think he, I believe he worked at Soros Hedge Fund for quite some time there.

So, but two different dynamics.

Howard Lutnick probably viewed a bit more as like the, the Trump loyalist, perhaps more willing to be more aggressive on tariffs, whereas Besant might be a little bit more of the establishment candidate, more in a more maybe a perhaps slightly more traditional treasury secretary candidate.

But again, we'll have to see how all that plays out.

Good recap.

Yeah, we'll be watching that.

December, January, we're still months away from these politicians actually taking office.

So some time to digest.

But as you said, it's every day, every piece of news that comes out, the markets are trying to react to it ahead of time.

Right?

Well, some of these things probably won't have an impact on the economy for potentially years or a year or two down the road.

But bonds obviously love to price that in as much as they can upfront, but they get that wrong sometimes.

And we've seen that quite often, honestly in the last couple years about just the trajectory for rate cuts or really anything.

So things change quickly sometimes.

Speaking of pricing it in, you know, everybody's been watching the Fed, watching Powell.

So we had the Fed decision, Powell spoken a couple times.

I think people have kind of gone back and forth on what exactly Pal's stance is right now.

You talk a little bit about that.

Yeah, yeah.

So we got, we got some fresh comments from Jerome Powell.

Always nice to hear from him.

Basically, the Fed's in no hurry to cut and not surprisingly, the economic data remains strong to quite strong and perhaps even accelerating a little bit.

Again, this inflation print a little bit higher than what we saw in September.

And then we, you know, strong jobs reports.

And then I think, you know, they're, they don't want to admit this, but I think they are probably a little bit worried about some potential policy and, you know, perhaps not wanting to get ahead of themselves in rate cutting, then just have to reverse themselves in hike rates.

Again, that would be, you know, a pretty bad situation, I think.

But yeah, Powell explicitly saying the strength with which we are seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.

You know, that's Fed speak for we're going to cut slow.

You know, we're going to be patient, we're try not to get ahead of yourselves in pricing and further cuts.

And, and he largely succeeded, as he often does.

So, you know, our December rate cut odds are down near 50%.

They were up close to 75%, perhaps even higher than that.

So.

All right, so the, you know, the Fed's rate path is data dependent, sort of, it's kind of been always been the deal.

Right.

It's, it's supposed to be data dependent.

But some, some policy expectations are sinking in to the path, similar as it is with investors.

Right.

Investors are trying to position themselves for, like you said, the next few years.

Policy changes are not going to make an actual difference for, for years, whether it's tariffs or taxes or spending or even housing policy.

So, yeah, that's interesting that those odds just for December, just for this upcoming meeting have already changed so significantly.

Yeah, for sure.

And yeah, you can think of them as data dependent, but also I think they're almost potentially trying to foresee future data.

And so they're almost getting dependent on how they think the data could develop, which is probably not a bad call.

So, yeah, they're.

I think they're keen to any potential changes in their.

Their dual mandate and the data that might affect that.

All right, so we're getting into the, you know, the holiday weeks here.

Starting to.

Feels like we're slowing down a little bit on important economic numbers coming out.

Can you just talk about what we see coming over the next week?

Yeah, yeah.

So it's mostly no major economic data.

We have a pretty good slate of housing market data.

We already got home builder confidence this morning.

It rose pretty strongly.

So good to see there.

I think it's pricing in likelihood of less regulation, which could lead to better housing production.

So builders happy with that?

We get housing permits and starts tomorrow.

So that'll be a good thing to look at for those looking for, you know, potential good news there.

Then existing home sales Thursday, again, nothing too major in terms of market moving events, but certainly good for housing supply.

And then Fed speakers, Austan Goolsbee tomorrow, Lisa Cook, and then our always hawkish Michelle Bowman tomorrow as well.

So we'll see if any comments there spur any volatility and then, yeah, just keep an eye on political developments.

We'll probably have a Treasury secretary named this week.

That's great.

Thanks, Ben.

You bet.

All right, as promised, let's check in with Vimy.

Vimy is managing director on our desk out in DC.

Vimy is a true expert on all things MSR and she manages our MSR client advisory team.

As you may know, over 70% of all servicing rights valuations go through our MSR system.

So we've got a lot of experience with that.

Obviously, we want to, you know, share with you today a little bit of demystification of what an MSR is and what some of these acronyms mean.

And anyway, welcome, Vimy.

Thanks, Jim.

Happy to be here.

Next week is the IMN conference.

So IMN stands for Information Management Network.

It's the biggest event of the year for MSR quants.

Right.

For the quantitative side of msr.

It's the biggest servicing conference that's out there.

MBA also has a really great surfacing conference that we will probably cover as well.

But this one's again coming up, that's actually later this week.

Is that right, Vimy?

That's right, Yep.

Starts Thursday morning through Friday afternoon.

That's awesome.

So VIMY will be there with some other folks from our team.

And so let's get right into it.

So let's demystify msr, which first of all means mortgage servicing rights.

And yeah, let's, let's get with VIMY here to help us demystify some of these, these acronyms and just some of the components that go into MSRs and what that means to loan pricing.

Great.

Yeah, there are plenty of acronyms to go around in the mortgage servicing space and I will likely use many of these during our chat here.

So a few of the critical ones to think about msr, like you just mentioned, Jim, So the mortgage servicing rate.

And we'll get into defining some of these terms as well as we talk.

Another one to think about is the srp.

In contrast to the msr, the SRP is a servicing release premium.

So what a lender would get paid to sell the servicing right versus retaining the servicing Right.

And a part of that value.

Here comes more acronyms is attributed to the P and I.

So principal and interest and the T and I, taxes and insurance.

So those are the four that I'd kind of like to focus on.

And I'm glad that we're spending some time on this, Jim, because acronyms are definitely intimidating.

You can just ask me anytime I'm talking to any of the gen zers on our desk.

I certainly have to ask them to break down these acronyms as well.

But so when we think about mortgage servicing, it typically involves collecting the payment from the borrower.

Right?

And it's taking that payment and it's remitting the P and I portion to the note holder of the loan.

It's remitting the taxes and insurance to the appropriate agencies and many other functions.

And then where the mortgage servicing right comes into play is that many lenders often don't retain the right to service the mortgage they actually elect to sell.

The Ms.

Are into the secondary market, which means that a borrower's mortgage is actually being serviced by another entity.

Right.

So if I'm a home mortgage originator, you know, maybe I'm a broker, I'm a loan officer, and I'm locking a loan in for a borrower.

A piece of the price of that loan or the premium on that loan is directly related to the servicing rights and I'm bringing the borrower to the lender.

Right.

And they were going to pay me a certain amount to originate that loan.

And then either the lender who I'm closing the loan with is going to keep that servicing Keep that piece of the value and actually take payments from the borrower, report to the agencies, do all those servicing related tasks and they're going to get paid a premium every year to do that.

Right.

Part of the interest rate.

So that's relatively simple.

Or they could sell it as well for like a current value of what that servicing is worth.

That's exactly right, yeah.

And you have to think about what are, how do you determine what that servicing is worth today, whether you sell it out into the secondary market.

And you get that srp, so you get that cash upfront, which allows you to reinvest in continuing to originate or any other business function.

And then if you retain it, you have to think about the economics there.

So how do you get paid and what does that look like?

And yeah, people think that it's super crazy hard math behind the valuation of MSRs.

And I think to get really get down to the fine details of it, it really is.

Especially if you've got billions of dollars tied up in mortgage servicing rights and you're looking to either value that on an ongoing basis or sell it or if you're a buyer of msr.

But in general there's some components that are pretty simple to understand.

Right.

Could you walk through some of those?

Just generally, where does an MSR come from?

Like what are the major components of what makes an msr worth like 100 basis points to me today?

Yeah, absolutely.

So I'll start off by saying that typically the servicing fee will range anywhere between 25 to 50 basis points, depending on the product.

And when I say that, what I mean by that is that the it would be a quarter percent to half a percent.

That's an annual rate of the remaining balance of the loan.

And at 1:12, because it's an annual rate, 1/12 of that is what's paid out monthly.

So servicer collects a borrower's payment, remits it like we had mentioned a minute ago, but keeps that quarter point in that example as to compensate for all the administrative duties involved in servicing the mortgage.

And so even to walk through an actual numeric example, let's suppose that the outstanding balance on a mortgage loan is $100,000.

There's a 25 basis points.

So again, quarter percent service fee.

So we'll take that quarter percent, we'll divide it by 12 again because it's an annual rate and we'll multiply it by the outstanding balance of $100,000.

And so my back of the napkin math there tells me it's a little less than $21 per month.

Part of that, $21 of the payment that the servicer can hold onto.

So that is the fundamental income, cash flow that a servicer would receive.

So I hold onto this, I do these duties, I'm going to make about $21 a month assuming all goes well.

But there are many other components to consider.

Okay, so the servicing fee itself, major part of the income side of the calculation.

Right.

I'm getting a quarter point in this example every year as long as the borrower is making payments.

And then I guess I have to decide, you know, what other components are involved, whether the components add value or subtract value.

And then, and then how long do I expect that cash flow to come in?

Is it going to be six months, 30, you know, it's a 30 year loan.

Is it going to come in for 30 years?

Do I have to value it that way?

Yeah, that's a great question.

So certainly some other opportunities to earn income which we'll touch upon very high level.

So float income has always been or has recently become a very critical part of the value given the yield curve.

And so generally the float income refers to the opportunity for a servicer to own, to earn float income on part of the balance.

And so whether that is the P and I before the servicer has to remit to the agency, or if it's on the taxes and insurance, you know, on the, on the escrow balance, there's all this opportunity to earn there.

But to the second part of your question, Jim, that's a very important component of valuing the MSR is because unlike any other bond, the mortgage backed securities of course have that inherent callable option which means that the borrower has the opportunity to prepay.

And whether that's an entire prepayment or whether it's paying small portions ahead of schedule, what that means is that that cash flow is not going to be around for the entire 30 years as one might have expected.

Prepayment modeling is a really critical component of MSR valuation.

Right.

So some of that scary math is trying to determine in all types of possible rate environments or different moves in the market or elections or you know, catastrophic events, how many years do I truly expect that quarter point payment to come to me over the long haul and that's how that allows me to then give a value of what that's worth to me today.

Exactly, yeah.

And I'd be remiss if I didn't touch upon a couple of the cost components tied to MSR as We, as I talked about the opportunity to earn, float on parts of the balance like the P and I and T and I, we do have to consider the fact that if a borrower is delinquent, the servicer is on the hook to advance that payment in certain situations.

So they have to advance the P and I, they have to advance the T and I, and they, it comes to them at a cost, whatever their cost of funds is.

Right.

And there's also just the cost of running the servicing business.

Right.

To have people or systems or if you're outsourcing it, like actually physically taking the payments and making sure that they're up to date and answering the phone like that's a cost that subtracts from that value for sure.

Yep.

The base cost of service.

And then as you get into delinquency and foreclosure modeling, of course, there are many other things to consider too.

But one other final point with respect to another income component, and we had talked about this the last time I was on the podcast, is the opportunity for recapture.

And just to think about the magnitude of how that impacts our audience, how this impacts front end pricing, is that we've seen this year, a lot of investors were paying up for that recapture opportunity and that went directly to the rate sheets.

That was part of the price that the borrower was quoted.

Because the MSR is a big component of that.

It was a distinguishing factor for many investors.

Right.

We've talked a lot about it on this podcast and in other places where, you know, MSR is such a large component of what makes one investor, one lender's price, different from another.

Right.

You can see the bond prices in the market and you know exactly what Those are.

The LLPAs are largely established by the GSEs.

Then you've got your own margins and your lo comp.

Right.

But that's kind of a lender by lender profitability calculation.

But then you've got this MSR piece that can be, that can fluctuate or vary by tens, if not hundreds of basis points.

And a huge component of that recently, as you said, is we're seeing this on the desk.

We see it from clients.

We even have investors out there talking about it.

They're establishing a piece of that MSR as a value of what they think they will make in the future on refinancing that borrower once, twice, three, four, five times over the next few years as we anticipate rates to go down.

So when you sell a loan to an investor, you always take that risk.

Right.

Some investors put a pretty hefty value on that.

Therefore, they're going to have a better price out in the market.

So they're going to accumulate more loans.

But they're also a lot more confident about their ability when rates do drop that you're probably not going to get as good of a shot at refinancing that borrower as they are.

So they're paying you to kind of take that away.

Precisely.

Great conversation, Bimmy.

As we said, Bimmy's going to be headed out to the IMN conference later this week, and then she's going to join us again next week to talk about, you know, what she heard and saw and talked about at that conference.

We'll get.

Yeah.

Looking forward to bringing notes from the field next week.

Wonderful.

All right, thanks a lot, Vimy.

Appreciate it.

Thank you.

Okay, let's close this thing out.

Jeff, big thanks to Ben and Vimy for being here and for sharing their insights.

Always a pleasure.

We will have a podcast next week, even though it is a holiday week.

Look for more MSR discussion with Vimy when she comes back from the conference.

And also make sure you register for our summit on our website here in the next couple weeks so you can get, you know, take advantage of that, of that early bird credit.

Pack your skateboard.

Get your skateboard ready.

Get your skateboard signed by Tony Hawk at the.

At the conference.

Jeff could not wait to meet Tony Hawk.

Yeah, I hope it happens for you.

Very excited.

It is really cool.

So please do register for our summit.

Yes.

That's it for today.

Join us next week for another episode of Optimal Insights, where we'll continue to provide you with the latest market analysis and insights to help you stay ahead.

Don't forget to follow us on LinkedIn for more updates and to access our latest video episodes.

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