Three hundred thousand tons of diesel (tons, not barrels) is what Trump says he extracted from Putin. The deal is easy to mock, but it’s worth understanding why it happened. Diesel is at record highs, and every European leader publicly condemning the move is privately relieved somebody finally told Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries. What the 5D-chess crowd misses is simpler: Ukraine and Iran are now the same war, because diesel trades globally and two kinetic conflicts are squeezing the same supply. From there, the harder question- what comes after Trump? America still wins gold, but it needed a Cameroonian center to beat a team of pudgy Serbs. The games are tighter now.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:02) - Paris Market Fire
(02:27) - Trump Diesel Deal Readout
(03:55) - Energy War and Hormuz
(08:39) - Zelensky Leverage and Midterms
(21:14) - After Trump and Multipolarity
(37:53) - Limited Force Iran
(38:50) - Trump Strategy Document
(39:48) - Neocons Versus Deals
(42:24) - America Behind Curtain
(43:54) - Regime Change Values
(50:53) - After Trump Realism
(52:46) - Houthis Scenario Menu
(54:05) - Trump Houthi Deal
(56:58) - Regional Wildcards
(01:00:28) - Houthi Strategy Shift
(01:01:14) - US Reacts Not Leads
(01:02:16) - Voters And Israel Test
--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
