Do you know how to spot profitable business opportunities and avoid fleeting fads?

Nathania Christy, a 2023 GreenBook Future list honoree, joins this week's podcast to discuss her career and work with trends. As an expert in trend insights and analysis, Nathania shares her perspective on how to differentiate between fleeting fads and profitable business opportunities. She emphasizes the importance of cultural context in understanding trends and unpacks the underlying forces that shape them.

Check out Trend-Driven Innovation: Beat Accelerating Customer Expectations

You can reach out to Nathania on LinkedIn.

Many thanks to Nathania for being our guest. Thanks also to our producer, Natalie Pusch; and our editor, James Carlisle.

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Hello, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the GreenBook Podcast. I’m happy to be hosting today. It’s Karen Lynch, and I have the privilege of interviewing one of our Future List Honorees from the 2023 GreenBook Future List Honoree List. Today’s episode will be featuring Nathania Christie, who will happily be going by her nickname today, [Nia 00:00:34].

Well, thanks. Thanks for having me. It’s a really great opportunity to be here. Thank you.

You’re very welcome. Yeah, tell the audience a little bit about your current role and then we’ll move on to talk about the Future List.

Sure, yeah. So, my current role at Quantum, so Quantum is this human insight and strategy firm. We do a lot of different frameworks and deliver a lot of different client projects, but basically in essence, what we do is we look at a business problem through a human science lens. So, anything and everything from psychology, ethnography, culture, semiotics, linguistics. So, a client comes to us with this really tough problem that they can’t solve, but we apply that thinking through human science.

So, that’s fascinating that you mentioned sort of the toolbox, right? Talk to me a little bit about that. What does that mean? What’s in that toolbox?

In Quantum’s toolbox, you mean?

Yeah, just for the trend work in general—

Yeah, so typically, when we look at trends, I mean, there’s so many different ways to, like, define trends, right? Trends can come in all shapes and sizes, can be very big or very small, can be very macro, when you’re talking about trends is can be, like, just industry trends, or flavor trends, ingredient trends, it can be anything. But the way we define a consumer trend is that it’s a new manifestation of a fundamental human need, want, or desire. Or simply put the other way around, is that trends emerge when innovators address people’s needs in a new way. And so, when we look at trends, we basically look at, okay, yes, the world is changing all the time, on the one hand, and the change is so fast, everything is just accelerating, but yet sometimes what we forget is that, on the other hand, people’s need don’t change at all.

So, you started in your current role, right, in the middle of the pandemic, so consumer change is happening in that time is probably an understatement.

[laugh]. Yeah, yeah. Everything was just in flux [laugh]. Everything was changing big time.

Yeah. Well, we’re so excited that you’re on the Future List, and some of the work that you’re doing, I think will be highly, highly important to our audience when we can get you on an IIEX stage to talk about it. But first of all, let me pause and say, congratulations.

Yeah, I think when I received it, I was really surprised because, like, I just didn’t expect it at all. It was… when I submitted it, I didn’t really do much about it. It was more like an internal push that, you know, someone in our company just said, “Just submit name and write something about you.” And then I kind of forget about it. But I think once I get it, it’s really… I think one specific thing is that it really gives me the confidence that I needed to, like, pursue trends further, especially, I think both internally at Quantum but also externally for the wider industry.

Yeah. I think learning is something that we hear from other honorees as well the idea that they are continually trying to learn and to push themselves, to explore new territories. That is a theme among a lot of the other honorees in previous years and also the current year. What would you say would be some of the other skills that either you bring to the field of trendwatching or that you know others in the industry have? Every, you know, researcher might have a unique skill set, but trendwatching is something different. So, what do people who do what you do lean into?

Oh, that’s a good question. I think with trendwatching, it’s not just about primary research or secondary research or ethnography. It’s not very defined, you know? And so, I kind of find it a little bit hard to slot myself into this, like, maybe more well-defined discipline. And then when I see the trendwatching community, I think these are people who are just basically inherently curious. They’re very observant as well. They just look at so many different things, different data points that maybe just don’t really make sense, but then they come, they sit down, they talk to one another and then just connect the dots together.

Yeah. And I think it’s interesting because a lot of those questions you just brought up in that what if space is very much aligned with, kind of, creative thinking and what the possibilities are, which is a little different from prediction and some futurists who are all about predicting the future. You’ve mentioned that part of your work involves opportunity identification, right, identifying where the opportunities might be. How might somebody who does do trend work, decide what is a passing trend versus what is a true business opportunity? How does that work?

Yeah. Okay. So, I think it’s worth mentioning that, you know, some people think of a trend as a fad, actually, but, like, a fad does come and go very quickly. Like, TikTok is maybe a fact just for this generation, but what is the real trend behind it? Fad are fast-moving, but trends are kind of slower.

Yeah, and I should have said to our listeners, that Nia is located in Singapore, and it is 12 hours away from me here on the East Coast of the US. And I think that what’s interesting is when you talk about culture-based trend work and culture-based trend frameworks, it makes me wonder whether you are studying only kind of the Asian culture or whether you are studying global cultures in some of the work that you’re doing.

Yes, I think for now, our focus is pretty much Asia. So, Quantum is a global company. We do have an office—our European—Western presence is in London for now, but we were born from Asia. So, we’re from Asia, for Asia, a company started 30-plus years ago in India. And then from there, we branch out to Southeast Asia to China to now we have an office in Dubai. But I think what we really offer to our global clients is this very strong perspective and deep thinking on culture in Asia. So, for now, I think Asia is our focus. Yeah.

Thank you. Yeah, I’ve been curious about that. You know, one of the things that we talked about in advance and we’re planning to talk to you a little bit about tonight was some of the frameworks that you are using for your trend work. I know that you have, for instance, you know, a purpose or a sustainability framework, and you have this culture-based trend framework. But I wanted to take a step back and ask you about frameworks in general. What is your, kind of, working definition of a framework and why are those important in the work that you’re doing?

Yeah, I think when we talk about frameworks, why is it important is because with trends, sometimes you just get so lost in all the things that you’re seeing, and then you’re just like, “Okay, so why is this interesting? Why is this important for businesses?” And so, then framework really helps to sort of anchor our thinking, and then you always go back to the framework to ask yourself the same questions for everything that you see, and then that’s where you are able to sort of connect the dots. So, as I said, like, the framework is looking at the drivers of change—it could be shifts or triggers, long-term, short term—and think about the macro forces, like, the [steep 00:12:48] framework, and then you look at the innovations that you’re seeing, you look at basic human needs, and then you ask yourself, “What gives rise to this innovation? Why is innovation possible now and not the past?” What has changed, whether in the economy, maybe there’s a rising middle class, maybe from a sustainability point of view, maybe people are now more willing to pay higher for something that aligns with their values and that’s different from the past?

Yeah. No, that’s really interesting. And I love how tuned in you are to the current culture that you’re studying, but also in the context because many of our listeners are kind of in the US-based and in Europe and I think it’s helpful for us to understand that it is not universally the same for everybody, the same missions and directives have different meaning in our lives, so cool stuff. One of the questions I have for you is if you have uncovered any trends that have been particularly surprising, or that kind of stopped you and you’re like, “Oh, this is really interesting.” Without giving away anything proprietary, of course, but is there anything kind of, you know, like, cool that you can share with us that you’ve learned?

Yeah. So, I think I had this one trend, it’s not very new, but now I think we’re seeing the re-emergence of it. But I remember so clearly, like, back then when we first, sort of, saw this innovation and then thought, “I think this could lead to something,” and then I presented it. So, this trend, okay, basically, it’s called virtual companion and it’s about our deepest need for connection and how we’re sort of seeking to satisfy this through AI and voice-[led 00:14:59] assistants. It was, I think back in 2017, or 2018.

Yeah. Well, and it doesn’t surprise me at all. So, first of all, you know, you think about it, you were a few years ahead of some of the generative AI platforms right now, where you can actually have this interaction with the machines that have learned how to have these very natural and organic conversations. But it also it is reminding me of, you know, every now and then one of my children—as I mentioned, I have, you know, young adult children who, you know, have virtual pets, and they, every now and then are like, “Oh, you know, hold on, I have to take care of my cats.” And I’m like, “What cats are you talking about because you’re not even home?”

Actually, speaking in virtual pet, there’s, like, a few innovations where, you know, this virtual pet is being introduced in hospitals. And it’s really wonderful because when kids go to the hospital, they actually feel scared, they don’t like the environment, and then the hospitals provide it to give them, like, comfort and warmth. So that’s, like, some application that, you know, could work.

Yeah, that’s really cool. And yes, like, we might be moving into a time with digital therapy dogs, which, you know, may be hard to get your head around, but also then maybe not at all based on the way things have been playing out in our world. You know, you mentioned earlier in this conversation, you mentioned kind of other trendwatchers and people who are in your community. And I know that there is a community of people doing the work that you do. So, what is it you kind of gain from having that network? What are some of the benefits of joining other people who do what you do in this kind of thinking?

Yeah, I think with trendwatching especially, community is really important because it’s not like an isolated field. And you’re always biased, right? You come from a particular background, culture, history, and then that’s the lens that you use to sort of analyze trends. And so, to help you remove that bias a little bit and to also really see if this trend is happening elsewhere, how it’s manifesting elsewhere, you really need that perspective. And so, with the community, it’s almost like we crowdsource this collective intelligence and then we ask our community, “Hey, do you see something like this happening in Africa, in South America, in this remote parts in Indonesia?”

Yeah, that’s really neat. And it sounds to me… you know, I had mentioned—I brought my own bias into this—I’d mentioned, like, can you share something that’s not proprietary. It almost sounds like some of the work that you’re doing is not proprietary; it can be kind of shared with peers that are doing the same sort of work with you. How do you find that balance of what you can’t talk about and what you want to talk about?

Yeah, that’s a very interesting question. Actually, with TrendWatching, our stand is always just share more [laugh], share everything and that’s how we even build our own trend thinking. And actually, within the trend community, I mean, everybody write trend reports, right? And then there’s this one guy, who will kind of consolidate all the trend reports from different trend companies and then create, like, a map of trends. And then you just see the different trend names.

Yeah. What’s the interplay between the different departments in an organization you might be helping? You know, are you operating within the innovation departments or the R&D departments? Or you’re operating with the consumer insights teams? How does that work? Who are your people [laugh] internally and what’s that, sort of, cross-functional collaboration, if there is any?

Yes. So, at Quantum, we primarily work with consumer insights people. And so, with trends now, we’re trying to break that and shift that more into innovation team. And then it can even be more. So, back at TrendWatching, when we do trends work—I mean, trends are very versatile, it can be applied to anyone and everyone as long as you’re able to sort of go deeper and tease out what’s, like, the principles behind the trend.

Of all of those different, sort of, categories that you operate in, do you have a favorite? Like, is there a space where you really like to apply this thinking?

Oh, it’s hard to say because I think the exciting part is that you’re able to apply to just so many different fields and then when you get a project, then you’re sort of thinking, “Huh, okay. So, how does the—like, what’s the world view of this field? How do they perceive things, view things?” And then you sort of apply a trend and try to fit into this field. So, I think if the diversity that I enjoy.

Yeah, cool. You know, back to being on the Future List. And the whole idea that, you know, a GreenBook, we’re all about the future of insights, right? So, we are constantly… not trying to be futurists, although many of the speakers that we feature do some predictive analytics and they do have some tools in their toolboxes that allows them to imagine what if, what might happen, and what is coming and help people make those types of predictions. So, I’m wondering, what you think the future of this sort of trend work is? How do you imagine it might be playing out in the future? Do you see the industry changing or the industry evolving? What do you think?

I think… so there can be many different trajectories. I think one of it is that as more and more—Asia especially, we’re seeing, like, this rise of tier two, tier three consumers and more… just diverse people coming into the consuming class. One angle, when we look to the future, it could be that research and trend analysis, the weight of it will focus much more on diverse group of people. So, it’s not just about talking about this one consumers. Like, “Consumers will now want to blah, blah, blah,” but it’s more about this specific consumers, that specific consumers, the people who are more marginalized. I think that’s one angle in demand for the future.

Yeah. Well, we certainly talk a lot about ChatGPT, don’t we? I mean [laugh], so we are talking about it here in our work, we’re talking about it in our social media, you know, we’re talking about it in content circles, and we’re talking about it in research circles. So, I’m a little bit curious about any trends that you’ve identified around kind of, you know, machine learning and that artificial intelligence. Anything that’s coming down the pike for us that we should just say, “Well, here’s where we’re headed with that.”

[laugh]. What’s next with ChatGPT? Oh, it’s really hard to say. I mean, we’ve already seen examples of it and how it’s being used by just different professionals, students, to write things. And… I don’t know, man… it’s… I’m also curious to see how it’s going to play out.

Right? Tap your network. Let’s put that out there into that network of other future-thinking folks. So, let me ask you this, when you do have a question or when you do seek advice, do you have sort of a mentor in this space? Do you have somebody that you really look to, whether it’s an author or an educator, somebody you would turn to that’s been formative in your career? What’s your source?

Yeah, yeah. There’s so many inspiring people around the trendwatching field, but I think a couple of people that I would mention would be Reinier. So, he’s the founder of TrendWatching. And he’s really this very, like, optimistic guy that looks at everything as opportunity. And so, I think it’s just the way that—it’s just his personality and the way he views the world that makes it… it’s kind of translate into the DNA of the company, that when we spot trends, it’s all about spotting new opportunities for businesses.

I love that you have a manager that does that for you. To me, you know, whenever I’ve worked with people that also challenged my thinking, that’s something that I appreciate and respect, too, so I love that. You know, one of the things we haven’t talked about yet is that you’re also, or you have been a guest lecturer at university yourself. So, talk to me a little bit about that, what kind of guest lecturing you’ve done? Because you will be inspiring the next generation of people who do this work. So, tell us what you’ve done in terms of wearing that hat and then we can talk a little bit about what they’re learning from you.

Yeah, so I think for me, like, it wasn’t really part of my job scope or anything, but I just always love, like, the education space. I think it’s, like, something personal for me. I’m originally from Indonesia, but then I moved to Singapore when I was 15 years old because I received, like, a government scholarship program and it just, like, really changed my life forever. And I was like, yeah, just really grateful for the opportunity, you know? And so, I thought, I didn’t want to actually have a career in consumer insights. It wasn’t something that I thought of. I thought I would venture into something more education-related. So, I’m digressing a little bit, but I’ll get there.

Yeah, that’s great. So, you know, I was going to ask, what advice would you give some of these students today, but it sounds like the advice is, consider this particular, you know, subcategory in the industry, you know? Do they ever ask you how you got started or do they ever ask you kind of where they can learn more?

Yeah, yeah. They will ask these questions and then I would just point them to the different books Trend-Driven Innovation is one. I think there’s a lot more that’s about trends that, like, I think The Future Laboratory also has a guidebook on trendwatching. Yeah, so many different—

Yeah, I’m pretty sure we can certainly connect with you, make sure we get that information in the [show notes 00:31:07], too, so our listeners who are curious about trend work know, kind of, the book that you’ve referred to. [Natalie 00:31:13] will take care of that, our producer. So, what’s next for you? Like, if you think about, you know, everything you’ve done so far, obviously, you know, there will be a speaking spot at an IIEX event in your future. But either some exciting projects that you’re working on or initiatives that are coming down. What’s next for you?

Yeah, this is a very difficult question at this point because [laugh] as I said before, what’s next for me is motherhood. And so, my mind—

I’m so glad you went there because I’m sitting here thinking, like, I would love to talk about the next phase of her life, but it’s highly personal. So, Nia, thank you for sharing that. I love that you’re having a child. It’s also going to broaden your world in terms of trends because you will be suddenly paying attention to parenting trends and trends in motherhood, and then you’ll be watching your child’s trends. So, chances are it’ll blow your career right out of the water [laugh].

Yes. I think, like, it’s a little hard for me to think of what’s next because I know things will just change, like, majorly. So, right now, for me, it’s like, “Yay, I got this GreenBook Award and now I’m going on maternity, and then let’s see what comes [laugh] after that.” But I’m definitely, like, with this award, especially, like, interested to, like, push trends further.

Yeah, and again, that’s an example of why you are on this list. It’s because your brain is going to be, you know, trying to carve a new way through this industry. And coming back to it, you know, after you’ve made this transition, recognizing that you won’t stop being who you are, and learning and growing. So, it’s going to be fun to pay attention to you as you move on. And I can’t wait to hear all about the baby once they arrive. So, what do you wish, Nia, I had asked you that I didn’t have a chance to ask you?

I don’t know. I think you’ve asked me a lot.

A lot. Some that you knew was coming, some that you didn’t know was coming.

LinkedIn. LinkedIn is the best.

Okay. All right, well, we will include that link as well, in the [show notes 00:34:11]. It has been such a pleasure. I love hearing about the work that you’re doing and I love hearing about how you do it. It’s certainly something that has always intrigued me, so I really appreciate you being here today.

Thank you. It’s been a nice conversation. Thanks a lot.