Artwork for podcast Top Traders Unplugged
GM35: The Drivers of the Commodity Markets ft. Nicky Ferguson
1st March 2023 • Top Traders Unplugged • Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
00:00:00 00:56:21

Share Episode


Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market.


EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Nicky on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science

09:42 - The major players in the energy markets

12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial

18:43 - Forecasting the flow

25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas?

27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets

30:22 - Risk considerations

32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action

34:28 - Measuring demand

36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research

39:46 - Oil on water supply vs land supply

41:33 - The impact of the dollar changes

45:33 - Measuring expectations

48:00 - The state and future of Ferguson's business

53:49 - Key takeaways from Niels

Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved


PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy