Transcripts
Hello, and welcome back to another episode of Unboxing the Trends.
Speaker:I'm your host, Tim Ranagan, and I'm happy to be here again today with Lori Boyer,
Speaker:your host of Unboxing Logistics, to talk about some trends that we had over the
Speaker:last month in shipping and logistics.
Speaker:Lori, how's it going?
Speaker:I'm doing so good.
Speaker:I am excited for March.
Speaker:It's my birthday month.
Speaker:Mine too.
Speaker:That's right.
Speaker:We've got birthdays next week.
Speaker:So everyone, if you're on LinkedIn or you're watching here, send all the birthday wishes to us.
Speaker:Yeah, yours is the 11th, right, Lori?
Speaker:Mine's March 13th.
Speaker:Fun fact, I was born on Friday the 13th.
Speaker:So, I'm immune to all Friday the 13th effects.
Speaker:Lucky, lucky.
Speaker:So, okay.
Speaker:Great month, March.
Speaker:We are ready.
Speaker:So Lori a lot happened over the last 30 days since we last met.
Speaker:We talked previously a little bit about tariffs only to find out
Speaker:that they were shelved for 30 days.
Speaker:Over the last couple of days the tariffs have been reinstated, right?
Speaker:So today on this episode, we wanted to get your thoughts on tariffs again.
Speaker:What do you think is going to happen down the road now that those have been reinstated?
Speaker:And we also wanted to talk about the USPS Postmaster General DeJoy stepping down.
Speaker:So let's start with tariffs, Lori.
Speaker:Would love to get your thoughts on what you're seeing out there over the last 30 days
Speaker:and maybe some thoughts on what's to come.
Speaker:Okay.
Speaker:Tariffs are, I think, gonna be kind of the on again, off again, it's kind of like a
Speaker:bad relationship where you're like breaking up, no, get back together, and it may be
Speaker:our story for 2025 for a little bit of time.
Speaker:Yeah, as you mentioned, the tariffs were paused.
Speaker:They went back into effect this week on Tuesday and already we're hearing some chatter that.
Speaker:This is Thursday as we're recording.
Speaker:I know you guys are getting this Friday morning, but that some of
Speaker:those may be paused again this evening.
Speaker:If that happened, throw it into the chat.
Speaker:Let's talk about it.
Speaker:But I really think I, you know, I was doing a lot of analysis around this.
Speaker:So, for President Trump, the economy is a really big deal.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:I know that he keeps a really close eye on the stocks and the market and and what's going on it.
Speaker:And most experts believe that these are mostly bargaining techniques that it's highly likely.
Speaker:I put it earlier this week, I put out a prediction, 60 to 70 percent
Speaker:chance is my probability that most of them will get paused or adjusted.
Speaker:Obviously, we're seeing a lot of things in specifics, you know, whether it's
Speaker:auto or or agriculture, where maybe there's going to be some exemptions.
Speaker:So that being said, short term, expect some disruptions.
Speaker:You know, things will be ironed out.
Speaker:I've seen a few articles that we can expect some delays as well at the borders as
Speaker:some of these are kind of taking effect.
Speaker:And so definitely hedge your bets.
Speaker:I think right now is the perfect time for you to be running some scenarios and
Speaker:saying okay, I do ship a lot from Canada or from China or from Mexico or you know.
Speaker:President Trump's talking about the EU kind of being next on the list.
Speaker:So if that's somewhere that you're you're getting a lot of supplies from or that you're
Speaker:shipping cross border on any of those places.
Speaker:It will behoove you to do some of those risk management exercises.
Speaker:Sit down with your team be like, okay, if this stays, what, how are
Speaker:we going to make some adjustments?
Speaker:There are a lot of companies talking about adjustments as well.
Speaker:Potentially, if you do have options of moving to a different country some of
Speaker:your supplies, your sourcing, that may be a good hedge, hedging your bet right now.
Speaker:But again, that being said, I think 60 to 70 percent chance that most of these tariffs
Speaker:settle down into kind of a much smaller.
Speaker:I don't think we're going to stay at 25%.
Speaker:I think that across the board, most of them eventually are going to kind of ease up.
Speaker:That being said, that does still leave that 30 percent chance that maybe they don't.
Speaker:So again, flexibility, agility, that's the name of the game when it comes to tariffs.
Speaker:Make sure that you're keeping an eye on what's going on and do make sure that you
Speaker:are prepared for any potential delays.
Speaker:Yeah, make sure you're getting your supplies in advance.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:I love those recommendations and that's a lot of what we covered last month, right?
Speaker:Is there still so much unknown surrounding, surrounding all of these tariffs.
Speaker:It's best to just make sure that you have your supply chain networks in check.
Speaker:Do a cost analysis.
Speaker:If there's going to be a slowdown, you know, make sure you're looking at all of these
Speaker:potential pitfalls and making sure you have solutions in place in case all of these
Speaker:various scenarios do in fact come to pass.
Speaker:But great, great suggestions, Lori.
Speaker:Love those recommendations.
Speaker:I want to say, Tim, as well, it is, it's true.
Speaker:It's the question everybody's asking.
Speaker:When I was at Manifest recently, in every session I was at, those were some of the questions.
Speaker:What's happening with tariffs?
Speaker:What are we going to do?
Speaker:Is this going to work?
Speaker:And the truth is nobody really knows for sure.
Speaker:I'm not even sure President Trump and his staff know for sure exactly
Speaker:what their plan is moving forward.
Speaker:So, I think that, yeah.
Speaker:If I knew, I would be like, probably way higher paid than I am, but all of us, just
Speaker:hang in there and know that you're not alone in being uncertain about what's going on.
Speaker:That's great.
Speaker:Well, let's let's go ahead and pivot Lori away from tariffs.
Speaker:Let's talk about the recent announcement that the USPS Postmaster General DeJoy has
Speaker:announced that he will be stepping down.
Speaker:What does that mean for the world of ecommerce?
Speaker:What does that mean for, you know, the big four carriers?
Speaker:Specifically, what do you think that means for USPS in general?
Speaker:Yeah, that was a big topic that hit a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker:He has been a very controversial figure.
Speaker:Some have loved his kind of bold changes he's worked to make.
Speaker:Others have been frustrated by kind of the slowdowns of, you know, things getting out the
Speaker:raising in prices and, and so I see a lot of people who have been excited for the change and
Speaker:and some who are a little disappointed, of course, and you get a figure and that's what you get.
Speaker:It's all going to depend.
Speaker:So a couple of things that I'm keeping an eye on.
Speaker:Timeline.
Speaker:So I haven't seen anything that said the timeline.
Speaker:If any of you have more insider info on that, let us know.
Speaker:But I have not seen anything.
Speaker:I know that I'm speaking at the National Postal Forum at the end of April, and he
Speaker:is still on the docket to speak there.
Speaker:So that will be as well.
Speaker:So timeline, I'm not really sure on.
Speaker:A lot of questions, you know.
Speaker:The new plans that have come out, our 10 year deal.
Speaker:Is that still going to be going?
Speaker:What's going to happen with consolidation?
Speaker:It really is going to depend.
Speaker:You know, there's been some murmurs that maybe the whole department will get
Speaker:moved under the Department of Commerce.
Speaker:So it, it will be really, really interesting, I think, to see.
Speaker:And this is one area that is going to be just something that I really recommend
Speaker:that you kind of keep an eye on.
Speaker:And who is the person?
Speaker:What kind of background do they have?
Speaker:What kind of goals do we think they're setting?
Speaker:Is this, you know, we brought in DeJoy as our first like not career postal worker
Speaker:and it didn't necessarily go as well.
Speaker:You know, he came from a logistics background, but you know, will we have another kind of
Speaker:commerce, kind of logistics background person?
Speaker:Will we go more of a traditional route?
Speaker:Those are questions that I have.
Speaker:I would love to see, you know, are we going to get more adjustments to the service
Speaker:levels and plans that are out there?
Speaker:I think it's just something that is fun and exciting to keep an eye on.
Speaker:And it is going to have some big impacts, I think, but again, it's kind of a wait and see.
Speaker:And I haven't had any whispers yet.
Speaker:Maybe it's you, Tim.
Speaker:Is that, are you going to be the new postmaster general?
Speaker:Oh yeah, secret's out.
Speaker:It's, it's going to be me.
Speaker:Okay, okay, well, if it's Tim Ranagan, then, you know, everything is going to be running so.
Speaker:Unfortunately, this is kind of an episode of like, let's wait and see.
Speaker:It's sort of straight out of Washington, D. C. for this episode, is everything going on.
Speaker:And that is just what it is.
Speaker:To me, I kind of like change and I, it's exciting to me when, when you
Speaker:never know what's going to happen.
Speaker:So I'm an optimist.
Speaker:I think that things are going to settle in.
Speaker:I think that we'll have some bumpy spots though.
Speaker:So risk management across everything is always important and, and keep your ear to the floor.
Speaker:That's my recommendation for next month.
Speaker:And we'll see what March brings, besides our birthdays.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:And I would add, you know, I think the theme of this episode is let's wait and see.
Speaker:That's true of the tariffs.
Speaker:That's true of the postmaster general news.
Speaker:Let's just wait and see how, you know, how the dust settles, so to speak.
Speaker:And this goes out to our listeners.
Speaker:If you have any insights, right, we all operate in the world of shipping, logistics, and ecommerce.
Speaker:If you have any insights into, or thoughts on how these two topics may affect, you
Speaker:know, shipping and logistics on the whole or ecommerce, feel free to let us know, put some
Speaker:comments into the chat, get involved, and we would love to hear your thoughts and actually
Speaker:share your thoughts on next month's episode.
Speaker:Until next time, we will talk to you then.
