Zac McCrary, a partner at Impact Research, shares insights about the competitive political landscape in South Dakota, particularly focusing on the Senate race against incumbent Mike Rounds. With a significant portion of South Dakotans expressing a desire for change, Zac highlights the unique position that independent candidate Brian Bengs could occupy in this election, as he could effectively draw support from disenchanted voters across party lines. The discussion reveals an alarming trend for Rounds, as polling indicates a majority of voters are ready to move on from him, showcasing a notable anti-incumbent sentiment. Zac emphasizes that the dynamics of the race could shift dramatically depending on the viability of Bengs as a candidate, particularly given the challenges facing the Democratic nominee, Julian Baudoin. This episode dives deep into the nuances of voter sentiment and the potential for a surprising outcome in a traditionally Republican stronghold. Zac McCrary, a partner at Impact Research, shares his insights into the political landscape during a candid conversation with David Wheeler. The discussion delves into the intricacies of polling and the current electoral climate, particularly focusing on the upcoming Senate race in South Dakota. With a backdrop of increasing discontent among voters toward incumbents, Zac highlights the significant anti-incumbent sentiment building in South Dakota, particularly against Senator Mike Rounds. He notes that a striking 55% of South Dakotans express a desire for new representation, a number that transcends party lines, including a substantial portion of Republicans who are ready for a change. This dissatisfaction opens the door for independent candidate Brian Bengs, whose appeal lies in his background as a military veteran and constitutional law expert. The conversation further explores the dynamics of the race, emphasizing the challenges faced by the Democratic candidate, Julian Baudouin, who struggles to capitalize on the anti-incumbent wave due to the entrenched partisan divide in the state. Zac's analysis paints a picture of a potentially competitive race if Bengs can effectively mobilize the disaffected voters who are ready to oust Rounds. As they discuss the broader implications, both speakers reflect on the evolving political climate and the possibility of surprising outcomes in the upcoming elections, underscoring the importance of strategic campaigning in challenging environments.

Takeaways:

• Zac McCrary emphasizes the importance of helping Democratic candidates win in tough races, showcasing his extensive experience in political consulting and polling.
• Brian Bengs' independent candidacy is highlighted as a potential game changer in the South Dakota Senate race against incumbent Mike Rounds, especially given the anti-incumbent sentiment.
• Zac notes that polling shows a significant desire among South Dakotans for new leadership, with a majority preferring to elect someone other than Mike Rounds.
• The conversation reveals that Brian Bengs could potentially siphon votes from both independents and disaffected Republicans, making him a viable candidate against the incumbent.
• Both speakers discuss the dynamics of the electoral landscape in North Carolina, pointing out that Governor Roy Cooper has been successful in breaking through in statewide elections.
• Zac expresses optimism about the upcoming election cycle, drawing parallels to previous Democratic wave years and emphasizing the shifting sentiments among voters.

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• American Muckrakers
• Impact Research
• Public Policy Polling
• Marcy Kaptor
• Josh Stein
• Roy Cooper
• Kay Hagan
• Brian Bengs
• Julian Baudoin
• Mike Rounds
• Chuck Edwards
• Mark Robinson

David Wheeler with American Muckrakers. It's another day. It's another Brian Bengs testimonial and delighted to have Brian's holster. Right.

Well, Zac McCrary, welcome to the show and thanks for doing this.

You probably don't get drug into publicly talking about your clients as much lately, but delighted to have you here and tell us a little bit about yourself, your work and your experience.

Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for the chance to come and chat a bit. Yeah. Zac McCreary. I'm a partner at Impact Research. We're a national political consulting firm.

Polling focus groups is our trade. My own personal story is I worked and started working in politics. Got very interested in politics at a very young age.

I was reading a book called the American in the Almanac of American Politics in high school. I was reading it like a novel, even though it's a reference book. So got got bitten by the political, political bug very early.

Started volunteering for races in my early days, did. Wore different hats. I did some field organizing. I did some communications. I did some campaign managing type. Type work.

But the last 20 years or so, I've been in polling.

Impact Research is our current, my current firm and I think my bread and butter and really our firm's bread and butter has been helping beat Republicans in tough terrain.

Whether that's, whether that's beating Republicans in North Carolina for governor, beating Republicans in Louisiana for governor across the country, that we do all sorts of different work. We have all sorts of different clients.

But that's really what gets my juices going, is helping an independent win in a tough place, helping a Democrat Democratic candidate win in a tough place.

And that's, that's, I think our, our bread and butter and where I, where my, I made my bones and why I think this race in South Dakota is so, so interesting.

Cool. Well, we. Sounds like we're birds of a feather in that we're both masochists, enjoy a good fight.

But, you know, sometimes that's where the action is anyway and that's where the fun is.

And certainly we're in business sometimes where the opportunity is so good on you for taking on those races that there's certainly lower profile, lower budget.

But, you know, I think the Democrats sometimes forget that they can win in some of these races if they just put some time and attention and had good guys like you.

Yeah.

Involved with them.

Yeah, I appreciate that. Yeah. I do think these are races where just as a strategist, they make you better.

As a, as an operative, they make you Better because you can't just coast on being on the right side of the partisan divide. A lot of races are just basic. You're just swimming, swimming with the current in a lot of places.

And you don't really have to run that smart, that creative of a race.

But anytime you're trying to elect a Democratic governor of Louisiana, Democratic governor in North Carolina, you're trying to flip longtime Republican seats like I've been blessed to be a part of in, across the country. One of my, one of my clients is Marcy Kaptor, who represents a district in Toledo, Ohio, a district that Donald Trump won by double digits.

She's actually the longest serving woman in the history of Congress. So those are the races that get me, get me really going like working across the country, all sorts of different type of races.

But I think these types of races where you're never swimming, if you're Marcy Captor in a district that Donald Trump won by 10, 12 points, you're never swimming with the political current. You're always swimming upstream. If you're Brian Bengs in South Dakota, you're never swimming with the political current.

So that makes the campaigns more important. That makes every decision on a campaign more important. I think that makes you have to be better and sharper as an operative.

And that's, that's why I really enjoy these types of races.

So I'm glad, I'm glad we have having you on this show then. I mean, it's terrific to hear your perspective.

So did you, you worked with Governor Stein at the time, Attorney General Stein or, or is that, or were you on Cooper's campaigns?

Yeah, yeah. I actually go back to when he was state senator, Josh Stein, one of his, in some of his estate Senate races, he had two terms as Attorney General.

And North Carolina is one of those states where, where, where Democrats have been able to break through at the statewide level. I'm actually very optimistic that Roy Cooper can break through. His decline of our firm as well, can break through at the federal level.

But I really do feel like Roy Cooper is well positioned to break that streak and to break through and flip that open Senate seat in North Carolina. He's not the, not the candidate who's getting the most attention on the Senate map.

He's not, that's not the race that's generating the most headlines, but I think he's the best candidate on the Senate map for Democrats and I'm very optimistic. North Carolina is always very close.

That race is going to be a 2, 3, 4 point race, but I really feel like Roy Cooper is well positioned to break through this year.

Yeah, I'm glad to hear that you're on the right side of those races. Governor Stein.

I have deep respect for and really like his governing style, which is get shit done and, and you know, the publicity and all the attention will come after you've done good things for people. You know, I live out here in western North Carolina where we had Hurricane Helene come through and, and tear up the place.

And, and he has actually been into this small little county of ours. Dozens, I mean, not dozens, probably about I know of at least six different times over the last two years.

And you know, God bless him for taking that time and the effort to do that. And, and you know, Governor Cooper is, is probably the all star in North Carolina Democratic history.

He's just such a terrific person and he wins races. But it's always, you're right, it's always close. I mean, he went through the recount, his first governor run.

Yeah.

But even the second run, I think was fairly close. And so you're right, it's not a top of line race for people because Cooper's such a quality candidate, but it's going to be damn close.

I think that's, I think that's the expectation. And actually western North Carolina, I think is going to play host to a very, very competitive House race as well.

I don't know if that's your district or not, but is it North Carolina 11. Jamie Hager, the Democratic candidate. That's one.

I think every day more and more people are waking up to the fact that in a good political cycle for Democrats, Jamie Eager, a very good candidate. The Republican incumbent, Chuck Edwards, a beleaguered.

It's always, it's always a, a bad sign if you're an incumbent, if the word beleaguered becomes your first name. But beleaguered incumbent Chuck Edwards in North Carolina, bleaker Republican incumbent.

That feels like this feels like the kind of cycle where Democrats can break through in that western North Carolina seat, which a year ago or previous cycles that really didn't feel that plausible. But it's, this feels like a, in a race like that, you need a good political climate which I think is developing for Democrats.

You need a quality Democratic candidate, which I think you have in Jamie Egger. And then you need a damaged Republican and you put all three of those together, the three legs of that stool.

And I think Democrats have a really good shot at breaking through in that House seat as well.

Yeah, I, you know, my guy was Mo Davis and he, he dropped out.

But again, I think the Egger family is catching a break similar to what Stein did in that the candidate is such a scumbag, you know, and Edwards had, you know, I don't want you to talk about this because you represent those campaigns, but I will. You know, Edwards has got girlfriend problems, he's got staff problems.

He's trying, I think he's or trying to some of his staff and they've complained and again, you don't need to comment on that but you know that's going to catch up with him. Similar to what, you know, Mark Robinson. And we helped break that story on Mark Robinson, by the way.

We, I went in and I set up an account on nudafrica.com and screenshotted every single lewd comment that he made and got those out really fast. But.

Well that's gonna, that would give you carpal tunnel syndrome to screenshot all the, all the Mark Robinson's loot comments.

Well, and it was disgusting to have to set up an account there. But all in, all in anything to help Governor Stein at the time AG but all right, so let's, let's move on. Zac, to our good friend Brian Bengs.

I know you've done some polling there. Can you give folks kind of the top line read on this race?

Yeah, absolutely. And this is a survey done actually by the, the firm Public Policy Polling, which polls all across the country.

I'm happy to dive into their to their data and tell it to discuss a little about what we've seen here. And when you look under the hood of this survey, there are really three core elements that jump out to me.

First, a clear majority of South Dakotans are ready to hand Mike Rounds, the incumbent Republican, ready to hand him his gold watch and move on. If you look at the, the, the the atmospheric doom loop for rounds here, 55 of South Dakotans say the country's heading down the wrong track.

59 Of South Dakotans give the other Senator John Thune, an unfavorable rating which to me is very striking and demonstrates the anti incumbent wave building that South Dakota's other senator, he's not up for reelection this cycle but Senate Majority leader John Thune, nearly 60% of the state rate him unfavorably. Now as it relates to Mike Rounds, he's in that same neighborhood right on cue.

55% By God majority say explicitly say they prefer electing someone new over re electing Mike Rounds. And Mike Rounds is not a.

Hold on a second there Zac. 55 For an incumbent negative is not really heard of, is it?

It's very unusual to be a sort of a conventional Republican in a conventional Republican state. I think it speaks to the, this anti incumbent wave that is building. You've even seen some of in North Carolina in the legislative races.

But we've, we've, we've seen two Republican Senate incumbents lose in primaries. We've seen several House incumbent, House incumbent Republicans, members of Congress lose trying to run for governor lose trying to run for Senate.

There is this anti incumbent sentiment building here and that the Thune number is a good example of that here. But this is, this is something new, this is something dynamic that is going on.

And yeah, this is not something that we have seen in previous cycles where you would have a majority again 55% starting with, with a desire to move on from their current Republican Senate.

Yeah, that's, that's a, that is a very promising number. So what, what else, what else did you see in that poll?

Yeah, and this is a guy round who he was but he's been a fixture in South Dakota politics since the movie Ghostbusters was fresh in theaters. I think when Rounds was first elected there wasn't even a South Dakota or North Dakota, just the one Dakota.

But, but truthfully he entered the State Senate in 91, served two terms as governor, now into his second term in the U. S. Senate, literally 35 plus years in the system. South Dakota knows this guy inside and out. And a majority are telling us they've seen enough before. $1 Has been spent against him this year.

South Dakota wants a change, wants to move on from Mike Rounds. It just has to have a comfort level with the alternative. And that's where the catch is, the strategic catch.

That 55% majority who wants someone new other than yet another Rounds term. That majority includes 2/3 of independents. It includes 40% of Republicans.

That both shows you how fragile Round standing is that a lot of conservative minded voters are already out on him. But it Also proves that any path to ousting him runs through non Democratic voters. No one is arguing South Dakota wants to go blue.

The reality of the math in South Dakota is that if you carry a D next to your name, you're just completely landlocked.

There's a deep partisan moat around you that prevents a Democrat from building the multi partisan coalition required to evict an unpopular Republican incumbent. It might not always be like that, but that's certainly where we are now. And that brings me to the second piece of the puzzle.

The Democratic candidate, Julian Baudouin is just structurally incapable of leveraging this anti incumbent climate and mobilizing the voters who are already done with Rounds. And it's not a knock on him as a person or even as a candidate. It's just the cold, hard reality of the brand.

Mike Rounds is unpopular, but the Democratic brand in South Dakota is, is radioactive. So in a state where 55 of the electorate is actively shopping for a fresh face, Bodwan, the Democrat still trails rounds by 25 points, 56 to 31.

Which is basically the Trump over Harris margin in the state all over again. So a Democrat hits a concrete ceiling right out of the gate.

The good news is that it's an entirely different universe the second you put independent Brian Bengs in that slot. Suddenly Mike Rounds drops from a comfortable majority 56 to 31 over a Democrat. He drops from a comfortable majority down into the mid-40s.

On the initial ballot against independent Brian Bengs, Rounds lead shrinks to a narrow four points within the margin of error, 44 to 40. That's a margin of error squeaker with a universally known incumbent well below that 50% survival line.

And why does that map completely shift between those two scenarios? Because the independent label breaks the partisan gridlock. Bings instantly captures a 30 point lead among independents right out of the gate.

The Democrat Bauduin was tied with Rounds among independents. Even more striking, Bengs more than doubles the share of disaffected Republicans he can siphon away from the incumbent.

The independent Brian Bings pulls 24 of Republicans away from rounds. Bodouan takes more like 10%. So fundamentally a Democrat is going to hit a hard ceiling in the high 30s.

Ahead to head of rounds versus Bings, though, shows that's really a live existential threat to Mike Round's career.

And the final piece of the puzzle is really how this race matures when a campaign plays out in this survey respondents here a basic paragraph of positive information about all three candidates it's equal links all positive no negatives are tested here Grounds gets his turn at the plate the Democrat does Bings does and then you retest the ballot this plays out what could happen over the course of a campaign when that happens in the race where it's Rounds versus the Democrat the cement hardens Rounds lead actually solidifies to a 25 point advantage 57 to 32 because a Democratic challenger keeps the Republican base entirely locked down in South Dakota Independents who are more conservative are just not going to flock in mass to a Democrat.

But when you run that exact same exercise with Rounds and independent Brian Bings BS moves from a 4 point deficit to a 2 point lead 44 to 42 once voters here and this is after this is also including replicating the positive message from Rounds from the incumbent giving giving him his due but including they also hear about Brian's Brian Bink's profile as a military veteran constitutional law expert his blue collar roots at that point he he leads rounds by plus two.

He's taking 70 plus among Democrats 60 plus among independents and capturing more than one out of four 26% of the Republican base and peeling off more than a quarter of the Republican base really is the holy grail win number for a challenger in South Dakota and it really at that point if you if that can happen all an independent all Brian Bengs has to do to finish the job is just to further solidify his hold on the Democrats and independents and that's really the easier part of the coalition versus taking the Republicans away from a Republican senator which again we find that he's already pretty much about where he would need to be among siphoning off Republicans and he just has to better solidify everybody else to hit that 50% statewide. So ultimately being status as an independent and is really appealing Biography acts as a circuit breaker for tribal partisan politics.

He gives frustrated conservative South Dakotans a way to fire an incumbent they're tired of and these voters can still sleep like a baby at night. Profile is a blue collar independent, dual branch military vet, constitutional law expert. All of that acts like a solvent on traditional party lines.

It dissolves enough polarization not all of it but enough polarization to allow a totally new coalition to form underneath. Nobody's saying it's easy to beat a two term incumbent in the Great Plains. We know the drill, we know the caveats.

We know that the Republican establishment will spend millions to protect Rounds. But make no mistake, this is a live race.

Yeah, and this is, you know, I read this poll and you did a terrific job of kind of laying out the mechanics of it or the, the numbers. And it's extraordinary that Brian Bengs, six months before or seven months before an election is polling this well in a head to head match.

Don't you think?

Yeah, it is, it is and it's, and it, you know, Brian's an appealing guy, has an appealing biography but really the, the, the game changer here is the anger that voters have where you have majorities and it, you know, Rounds is you know, part of the problem, but it's less about Rounds. It's just, it's just the corrupt system.

It's the system that many, many voters, not just Democrats, not just independents, but a lot of Republicans are sick of and, and looking for a way, looking for people to take out this anger on.

And somebody who's been in politics for 30 years, he's in his second term in the Senate, but I guarantee you when we get into focus groups in South Dakota people are going to think he's been there forever, which he sort of has. He's been in politics forever. He's the personification of what really voters find so distasteful.

And Brian, Brian Bengs is a really great antidote to it. A blue collar independent, military credentials. His most recent, most recently he's working as a park ranger out in small town South Dakota.

So it really feels like the moment here, if this was four years ago, 10 years ago or maybe 10 years from now, maybe the, the ingredients in the cocktail don't quite come to get together but it really does feel like the man and the moment are meeting here in terms of a very anti incumbent sentiment building in the electric bubbling up. You have somebody who totally represents what voters don't like about Washington about the political status quo.

And then you have Brian Bengs who is, whose background, whose bio, his, his, his vibe, the way he, he, who he is, how he comes across is really a great antidote.

So that you put all that together in a race like this comes online in a way that, that, that, that you know, most of the experts would have thought well this, not that it couldn't happen until you actually see it with the, the cold hard number.

Right. And, and PPP is This is a scientific poll. This isn't just, you know, scratch your own back, Poll. Correct.

Yeah, no, this is absolutely, this is, you know, from a, from an outlet who pulls across the country who has, you know, very good, very good track record here. And you know, the, this is a survey where that accurate, accurately reflects the Trump I mentioned.

This is not, you know, this is not looking at pollyanish numbers here. This is very clear eyed in terms of the fundamentals of the state here and is accurately reflecting the conservative underpinning of the state here.

And despite all of that, we, we find that the incumbent Republican is in real danger here. And you know, frankly, uh, it, it, it does feel like the Senate majority is in play in a way that, yeah, I would have been skeptical.

Would have been the case six months ago, 12 months ago. And certainly if whatever the Republican path to keep 50 Senate seats is, that path really hits a brick wall.

If somebody like a Mike Rounds, if they don't have the Mike Rounds around, they don't have his vote to rely on the Republican, the Republicans who are currently hanging on to their majority with their fingernails. We see Donald Trump's approvals in the country, you know, melting like he's a wicked witch of the West.

If, if, if, if Mike Rounds could be ousted here, it gets very, very difficult for Republicans to get to 50 seats and a, in a majority in the Senate.

Holy shit. Yeah.

I mean, Brian Bengs again, you know, he would come in as an independent, but you know, he's a constitutional lawyer and I assume he could be a vote to send Trump packing.

Yeah, I mean my understanding is that he's, that, I mean the way he's talked about it, he's not going to caucus with either party. So he would not be a, he would not be a vote for, for either party and he would vote for what's best for South Dakota on, on, across the board.

There's, there's precedent for that. There's other independent senators in the, who have done that in, in, in the history of the U.S. senate.

Uh, there's multiple, as I'm sure you know, David there and talked about, there's other independents running in, in Nebraska, in Montana, in Idaho. There could even be a small group of independent senators that have a lot of sway.

But if nothing else, that Brian Bengs in the Senate would make it very, very difficult, nearly impossible for Republicans to return the gavel, return the power to the Trump aligned Republican Senate majority. Yeah.

And off the top of your head, do you remember what the Trump approval was in this poll?

He's right around 50. 50.

So we've seen Trump in free fall in the national polling and really in free fall in a place like South Dakota, even though still closer to 50, 50, because it's the DNA of the state of the last decade plus has been, you know, very, very Republican. But Trump's numbers here are, are pretty darn unimpressive for what, where you would expect a Republican president to be in South Dakota.

Right. And that's really without any active opposition to Rounds or anybody else in South Dakota yet.

I mean, obviously Brian and Democrat are out there campaigning, but you know, they haven't, they haven't been on the air like they will be.

So.

Yeah, yeah, here's a couple things that make me excited about this race. Number one, you're, you're telling us and, and obviously this is a poll and kind of looks back and things could change.

So I don't want to put words in your mouth, but this poll says scientifically it would be a monumental hill for the Democrat to beat Rounds in a head to head race. Correct?

Yeah, it's very, it's, I can't even, I would have to do much more than squint. I don't know how that happens.

Right. And this guy is inexperienced, this candidate, and I listen, I don't know him.

I don't mean to begrudge anybody that sticks their neck out to run for public office because that's a sacrifice. However, I did a little research myself, Zac, and this guy has literally 20 collection actions against him that I found in court records.

And I don't, I don't want you to comment but I think the voters of South Dakota need to learn more about this Democratic candidate and I doubt the Democrats that put him up were aware of this. But you know, he sounds like he's going to be a flawed candidate. It's going to be a waste of time and money.

Is there any indication that Rounds put this guy up to it?

You know that's a good question. He certainly is, is useful to Rounds, I can tell you that much.

And we actually saw that, we actually saw that in Nebraska where in it thankfully it was thwarted where the Republican senator, incumbent senator in Nebraska put up a right wing activist to try to capture the Democratic nomination To, to do exactly, to put, to put Dan Osborne in Nebraska in exactly the same place Brian Bengs is now of having to navigate being an independent challenger with a Democrat on the ballot. Thankfully Nebraska that was thwarted.

But that's exactly what happened in Nebraska was the incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts put up and they didn't even really deny it. It was, it was, it was almost done in plain sight.

And so at a minimum all I can say in South Dakota, not all the, all the intricacies is that Julian Bowdoin, the Democrat is, is serving a very useful, useful, playing a very useful role to Mike Rounds as he tries to navigate reelection despite a majority of the state being ready to, to, to send him packing.

Yeah. And a three way Brian has a really tough field of climb because this Democrat's going to get what, 30% of the vote?

Yeah, yeah, I'd admit, yeah, something like that. They probably divide it down the middle. You know the, the, if you take the 55% who are ready to do.

There, there's a couple states where you, you would have a runoff if, if, if no candidate hits 50% in the November election. That's not the case in, in, in South Dakota.

If, if Rounds is the, if you have a divided opposition to Rounds and he's only 42% in November he slips back into office, slithers back into office despite a Majority looking for somebody, looking to do something else.

Okay, so folks that are listening to this, this is Zac McCrary, pollster for Brian Bengs and an advisor to his campaign. And he's talking about a PPP poll which is a legitimate scientific poll. And here's what you need to take away. Folk, this is just my opinion.

This is not Zac's or Brian's or anybody else's. So don't attribute it to them.

But listen, you need, you need to get on the phone, you need to email and, and see if we can gently and pleasantly friend in a friendly manner, see if we can get this Democrat to step down and, and endorse Brian just like it happened in Nebraska.

The Democrat who won that primary, I don't even think it was 24 hours after the primary, maybe 48 withdrew from the race and endorsed Dan Osbor who's an independent labor guy there. We need the same thing to happen up in South Dakota and I'm willing to stick my neck out and try and make that happen.

But I need help from folks like you that call the Democratic Party in South Dakota and I will put all this up on the show notes, call Jillian Bauduin or Bowdoin campaign and ask him in a pleasant way, do not berate the guy, do not embarrass him. We just need to logically explain to him why he should drop out.

And listen, I firmly, I bet I grew up in Iowa as most of our listeners know and I've been to South Dakota quite a bit and I love this part of the world. And Brian Bengs is just the guy that South Dakota needs.

And I'm saying that from my experience of working with Tom Harkin and Tom Vilsack, they're level headed people, they're common sense people and they get shit done.

I mean you look at Harkin and Vilsack both, they both did a lot in their careers for the people they represented and there was no bullshit and, and no, you know, long lasting controversies about them. So. And I believe Brian Bengs is, is that guy and should be the next senator from South Dakota.

But I need help folks, getting this Democrat to see the light and step down. So let's say this Democrat does not get out of the race. Is there any path for Brian at all?

I mean did we, we have to destroy this guy or you know, Brian doesn't have to, but is what path would there be if, if it's a three way race?

Yeah, I think it's just very difficult at that point. You know, I think one would have to just sort of take a deep breath once that is locked in and determine what the path is.

You know, again, this is a cycle where I think there's going to be some upsets. If there's going to be a cycle where something like that could be pulled off. I think that this is the cycle.

This is where we're going to see a lot of surprises. Maybe not exclusively with Republican incumbents, maybe some Democratic incumbents too.

We've seen Democratic incumbents, some Democratic incumbents struggle in the primaries, for example. So I don't even say this is, this is not just as a single, doesn't just go in one direction in terms of the partisan piece here.

But, but certainly Rounds is as weak as he's ever been. I think head and shoulders, a one on one. Brian Bengs versus Rounds is. He's, he's extremely vulnerable. It gets much more difficult after, after that.

But I think one would just have to take a deep breath and see where we stand.

I think that would be sort of August when, when that would potentially firm up if indeed Baudouin stays in the race and sort of take a deep breath and figure out how to make the math work at that point.

You know, the other thing I would say, my understanding and I, again, I have not talked with anybody about this and I could be over my skis here, but my understanding there's even possibilities that the Democrat Baudouin doesn't could run for their other offices, other statewide offices available here that is not necessarily US Senate or nothing, but there's other down ballot offices in South Dakota that that could be positions he could land in. And so I think that could be perhaps the best of both worlds.

Yeah, I agree with you 100%. I think there's a lieutenant governor spot that's still open. So that could be an alternative.

Folks that are listening when you call his campaign or call the Democratic Party in South Dakota suggest that he run for lieutenant governor, that spot's open. This guy's an African American. That would be a, a stepping stone for him to maybe run for governor someday. He's a former state trooper.

I don't want to question his motives, but we gotta explain to him that the time is now. We are at a critical moment in this country's history and imagine if Mike Rounds goes down, how that could affect this country.

But, and, and help folks in South Dakota. So. All right, Zac, I really appreciate you taking some time to visit with me and, and listen to my rumblings and ramblings.

You clearly know your business what. One final question, and then we'll say thank you and, and let you have a enjoyable weekend. So what else are you seeing across your clients?

You know, the numbers for some of your clients across the country. Are there any trend, any trends that are promising or scary or keeping you up at night?

And I think we're seeing some of the, some of the, the storm clouds for Republicans starting to resemble, resemble those, those cycles. So I think that's compelling. And really what happens in wave years is I, I think of it as the two eyes, they start to align.

One of that is the intensity advantage. Democratic voters are angry. Republican voters are sort of dispirited from what they're seeing out of the, out of the Trump administration.

Most Republican voters didn't vote for what they're seeing out of the Trump administration. You know, they were hoodwinked in some ways by what Trump promised. Lower prices has not been delivered. No, no, no.

More wars has not been delivered, among many other problems coming out of the Trump administration. So Democratic voters are angry and motivated. Republican voters are dispirited and sluggish.

That you see that in special elections that we, over the last year, plus with the New Jersey, Virginia gubernatorial elections where Democrats did really well. The primary turnout we've seen has been very indicative of Democrats being motivated.

So that's one of the two elements that has to happen in a political wave, the intensity advantage. And we see Democrats have the intensity advantage. The other, the second I is independence.

Independents break in the same direction and we actually see that starting to develop as well. Independents in Most elections are 50, 50, 52, 48. You know, pretty, pretty competitive throughout the election.

And we're starting to see independent voters harden and solidify against Republicans, against the status quo in Washington.

And that's when waves happen, is when you have those, the two eyes, the double barrel eyes there, the intensity advantage and the independent voters breaking in that same direction. We're just in June. There's miles to go before we sleep here.

But it really seems like the, the elements are developing for a really, really strong election year for Democrats and Republicans taking it on the chin in a way that we haven't seen in perhaps 20 years in a generation of politics.

And when those wave years develop, a Republican like a Mike Rounds gets beat, a Republican Democrat like Jamie Ager in western North Carolina, breakthrough. This is the cycle when those types of races don't just get competitive, but really have a chance to break through.

All right. Well, Zac McCrary down in Alabama today. I really appreciate your time, your insights.

You're really kind all this time to speak with myself and our listeners and.

Yeah, so much fun. David, thanks for having me and always, always happy to.

And where can folks learn a little bit more about you and your firm if they want to?

Yeah, yeah. You know, Impact Research is our firm. You know, I've, I've got a Twitter account people can find.

So, so yeah, just, just Google me and you know, see what I've got to say. And you can find out more about our firm.

We, we uphold for I, I, we, there's members of the squad that we pull for and there's, there's some more sort of moderate to conservative Democrats that we pull for.

So I enjoy the ability that to run the gamut and, and pull for and be, be part of campaigns across the country, all sorts of different races, all sorts of different candidates. That's, that's what keeps my job a lot of fun in my mind. And folks can find out more about me and Impact Research just with a simple, simple Google.

All right, well, thank you so much again, Zac.

You're a terrific guy for doing this and for helping these candidates in races that have a, a little more, more headwind than maybe some in safe Democratic districts. You're a terrific guy for doing this. And this has been muck u.