### Key themes
- **RNDC Chapter 11** reshapes national wholesale; two-route-to-market split accelerates
- **Two-speed industry:** price/premium/RTD/NA strength vs. volume, craft, and mid-tier pressure
- **Wine supply destruction** in California alongside K-shaped demand
- **M&A and succession:** Sazerac/Brown-Forman, Cobblestone/Campari assets, Whiting retirement
- **Policy pile-up:** hemp three-tier, DtC enforcement, state pricing, Scotch tariff relief, EPR, labeling
### Major corporate & earnings
- **RNDC:** Ch. 11 (S.D. Tex., July 26); $1–10B liabilities; 100k+ creditors; top-30 unsecured >$300M; Proximo $93.92M largest; DIP $75M; NDC and most JVs excluded; 5,000+ jobs preserved via prior sales (Reyes, Columbia, Martignetti, BreakThru); Quality Brands closes Plains (NE/ND/SD)
- **ABI:** Strong global beat; U.S. +2.7% revenue on price/mix; Ultra, Busch Light, Busch Light Apple top share gainers; Cutwater doubles; NA beer mid-30s%; outlook 4–8% EBITDA; Sept. capital markets event
- **MGP:** Sales -14.5%; EPS beat; Penelope/Yellowstone/Everclear strength; 52-brand cut; Distilling -42%; guidance reaffirmed; ex-Pernod hires; SirDavis liquid for Beyoncé
- **Campari:** +2.7% H1 organic; NA +2.9%; aperitifs +4%; Wild Turkey pressure; selling **Cabo Wabo** & **Bisquit & Dubouché** to **Cobblestone** (Dennis Carr; close by Oct 31, 2026)
- **Rémy Cointreau:** Cognac +7.7% organic; Louis XIII mix; group +1.3%
- **Becle/Proximo:** Q2 -5.8% CC; US/Canada sequential improvement post-RNDC exit; Cuervo soft, other tequilas sturdier; FY low-single-digit decline outlook
- **Brown-Forman:** Whiting retiring; search on (Masick, Farrer flagged); FY26 sales -1%, EPS -17%; FY27 flat sales / OI -3–5%; **Sazerac $15B / $32** bid rejected again (Wells + Apollo backing)
- **Boston Beer:** EPS miss; depletions -6%; GM guide up; A&P/capex trim; Truly Unruly as higher-ABV bet
- **Chapel Down:** H1 +19%; U.S. via Jackson Family (31 states, 250 Whole Foods) +66% intl
- **LVMH W&S:** H1 +5% organic; US Hennessy still soft; VS RTS launch negligible
- **TGI Fridays:** Liquidating Ch. 11 plan confirmed (~99.5% creditor approval)
### Category & consumer tape
- bw166 L12M: beer -5.6%, wine -5.7%, spirits -7.4%; spirits RTDs = 28% of spirits shipments; off-prem $ +1.6%, on-prem $ +5.2%; per-LDA servings index 85.9
- NABCA June: spirits vol +4.8% (extra days); cocktails/RTDs +33.7% vol; tequila broad-based; Scotch -3%; R12 wine still deep red; on-prem spirits firm
- NBWA BPI July = 51 (craft 26; premium lights 52; FMB/seltzer 55)
- NIQ: post-holiday reset lower; prepared cocktails only major dollar-growth segment; domestic premium & seltzer largest $ drains; NA beer and super premium bright; home-bar inventory ~4.9 months (Evercore)
- Circana craft four-week still soft; Athletic Brewing, select IPA SKUs (Voodoo Ranger, Hazy Little Thing, Space Dust, A Little Sumpin’, Pernicious) outperform; Blue Moon -10.4%
- On-prem: Margarita velocity -16% but still #1; Martini +29%; RTD venues ~96k; functional +49%
- IWSR: participation steady; Gen Z LDA+ up; drinks/occasion down; cocktail-led Gen Z
- Conference Board CCI 90.8; RBC $84T wealth transfer thesis (helps premium spirits, hurts beer)
### Wine supply & regional
- CA: ~38k acres out; 40–50k more expected; 500k+ tons unpicked; bulk ~39M gal; 2025 crush 2.62M tons (-8%+); red < white; Pinot -30% since 2021
- **Beckstoffer:** major Lake/Mendocino pullback; holds ~1k Napa acres; 50 of 65 staff laid off
- Agave experiment: ~100 growers / ~1,000 acres / 7+ CA spirit producers (UC Davis); Tohoku climate suitability shift Napa–Sonoma ? Monterey–Mendocino
- **Vine Enterprises** $47M Pleasant Valley Winery reinvestment (Steuben County, NY)
- **WineAmerica:** Trezise out; Kaiser day-to-day
- Innovint/K-shaped: top-quartile wineries ~+11% rev; bottom ~-6%; luxury/$100+ outperforms
### Brands & products to note
- Michelob Ultra / Ultra Zero, Busch Light, Busch Light Apple, Cutwater
- Penelope, Yellowstone, Everclear, SirDavis
- Cabo Wabo, Bisquit & Dubouché, Knappogue Castle, Clontarf
- Jose Cuervo, 1800, Maestro Dobel, Bushmills, B:oost (divested)
- Wild Turkey, St-Germain, Aperol, Hennessy VS RTS, Louis XIII
- High Noon, Truly Unruly, Sauvy B (Gott/Trinchero)
- Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing, Elysian Space Dust, Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’, Wicked Weed Pernicious, Blue Moon, Athletic Brewing
### Regulatory / trade / compliance watchlist
- MI PA 72 (SB 604): ADA fee redesign
- Lawful Hemp Protection Act (Barr/Craig) — three-tier + federal tax risk to warehouse focus
- Intensified DTC stings/ID rules (AL, AK, AZ, GA, IN, KS, MI, SD, others)
- Ohio retailer DtC case ? Supreme Court petition
- NC ABC minimum baseline pricing (strong voter opposition in poll)
- KC singles ban paused by injunction
- WI brewery permit revocation (political/compliance risk)
- Scotch tariff-free restored July 24
- Teamsters push Mexican beer tariff vs. Constellation 74% U.S. value claim
- DISCUS/Wine Institute Oregon EPR amicus (glass vs. plastic fee disparity)
- WA/OR spirits tax burden (Tax Foundation)
- NY “Cheers for Change” tied-house / foot-law modernization
- Public-health push for alcohol harm labeling (CDC 178k deaths cite)
- SAMHSA NSDUH youth trends stable/down; JAMA prenatal alcohol use up 2011–2024
### Big takeaways for operators
1. **Secure route-to-market and working capital now**—RNDC receivables and replacement-distributor leverage are the acute risk.
2. **Double down on what’s still earning dollars:** premium beer icons, spirits RTDs/prepared cocktails, NA beer, selective tequila second labels, aperitif culture, focused branded spirits.
3. **Wine is a barbell:** luxury and top-quartile execution versus bulk/oversupply exit; placement windows may open where RNDC doors loosened.
4. **Expect more consolidation and capital recycling** (distributor territories, non-core spirit brands, CEO succession catalysts).
5. **Budget for policy friction:** hemp capacity competition, DtC compliance cost, state pricing experiments, packaging EPR, and labeling.
