Farmers and growers are normally exposed to a wide range of risks arising from weather variability, natural hazards, and pests and diseases. Agricultural and fresh food production relies heavily on the natural resource base and climate conditions. Similarly, shocks to the market from both domestic and international sources, like supply shortages due to drought or fluctuations in exchange rates, can result in price volatility. These risks directly affect the economic returns from agriculture, the livelihood of our farmers and growers, and in the long run, the capacity of farmers to invest and innovate.

But, what we have all experienced in the last 12 months is totally unprecedented.

Feed, fertiliser, fuel and labour costs have all risen dramatically squeezing margins from profit into loss. With all sectors forced to rein in inputs this will lead to reduced yields and production. Left unchecked, there could be double-digit cuts in output across all sectors of UK food production. Those output cuts could bite as early as the autumn, with wide-scale shortages an even greater likelihood in 2023.

Surging energy prices are central to the potential cutbacks in output. Farming systems depend heavily on energy for fertiliser manufacture, food storage, crop drying, milk pasteurisation and for heating everything from glasshouses to livestock sheds. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, energy costs have gone through the roof.

Fertiliser prices have risen as high as £1,000/t in recent weeks, compared with £250/t a year ago. Farmers are facing key purchasing decisions in the coming weeks and months. New season buying starts from June for arable growers, while livestock and dairy farmers often buy at first-cut silaging. Ukraine also grows about 10% of the world’s wheat, and exports have slowed to a trickle since February. Next season’s grain crop is shrouded in uncertainty with men of working age fighting and millions fleeing the country.

How this will affect the harvest and what the knock-on for next year will be is hard to gauge..

But the dire situation facing food in the UK cannot be blamed on the Ukraine conflict alone. Input prices and post-Brexit policies were already causing pain long before the Ukraine conflict. The war has only worsened an already serious situation and shone a light on how much our food supply is increasingly in the hands of other nations.

We go live with the AHDB and a number of key industry experts for an insightful panel discussion. This is with the key aim to shine a light on this hugely important subject and give direct guidance to the sectors as to how the risks can be potentially mitigated.