Ready to dive into the wild world of credit union predictions? Want to know what’s next for the financial landscape in 2025? Join host Mark Ritter and COO of MBFS Jeff Lyons in this lively episode of Credit Union Conversations as they toss out bold forecasts for the rest of the year! From the chaotic twists of the NCUA board saga to the buzz around potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Jeff and Mark unpack what’s shaking up the industry. Expect spirited banter on how tariffs might play out as a cheeky negotiation tool and why the loan marketplace is hotter than a summer barbecue. Tune in for a quick, fun ride through the economic crystal ball!

IN THIS EPISODE:

• (00:00) Introduction
• (01:14) Discussion on NCUA board chaos, highlighting legal ambiguity in removing board members, predicting Supreme Court resolution
• (04:25) Prediction on interest rates, expecting a half-point Federal Reserve cut by year-end 
• (06:41) Tariffs discussed as a negotiation tool and the budget deal in Congress 
• (11:15) Discussion of the loan marketplace outlook for credit unions and home values
• (13:00) Focus on SBA loans and home-based businesses, predicting a boom in startups due to economic conditions

KEY TAKEAWAYS: 

• Legal uncertainty surrounds the removal of NCUA board members, which is likely to be upheld after Supreme Court appeals.
• Anticipated a half-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut by year-end, with stable inflation and low unemployment.
• Tariffs are being used as a negotiation tool, with minimal impact on trade, and modest 10% tariffs are expected, particularly on manufacturing from China.

RESOURCE LINKS

Mark Ritter - Website

Mark Ritter - LinkedIn

Jeff Lyons - LinkedIn

KEYWORDS: Credit Union, MBFS, NCUA Board, Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Unemployment, Tariffs, Negotiation Tool, Trade, Loan Marketplace, SBA Loans, Home-based Businesses, Budget Deal, Economic Conditions, Supreme Court, Business Startups, Consumer, Tax Cuts, Credit Union Predictions, Financial Landscape 2025

[00:00:27] And a little bit of, that's a good thing because business is much stronger than we ever thought. Agree. Yes. And also

[00:00:41] Mark Ritter - Host: Oh yeah, a absolutely there is kind of those pieces of the universe that are much stronger than others.

[00:01:11] Sure, absolutely. So the first one that we'll do a quick hitter of is the NCUA Board Chaos As we Talk it is tied the, there's one NCUA board member and there is ongoing court cases, and I think maybe in the next two, three weeks, there's a hearing behind it. Of which will mean nothing because it'll get appealed and appealed again.

[00:02:09] So it's kind of one of these silent areas. Yeah. It doesn't have anything about cause, right? No, no. The, I, I always said, oh, you can't do that. It's only for cause. Nope. Well that was actually this other court case. It's not actually in the law. So what I think is it's eventually going to get upheld. That they can do this.

[00:02:49] Jeff Lyons: What do you

[00:02:50] Jeff Lyons: I would agree with that based on that. Clause because there's a lot of other lawsuits. The FTC, I think the National Labor Relations Board is [00:03:00] also had this removal, but they all had that clause.

[00:03:26] Mark Ritter - Host: You know, and the interesting piece of all of this is Todd Harper, the Democrat that got fired, was appointed by Trump during his first term because he had to appoint a Democrat. Right?

[00:03:41] Mark Ritter - Host: yeah, so he snuck in there, then got fired. So. Well, well, hopefully, uh, I, what I wanna see is some clarity behind this and, uh, very much sooner rather than later.

[00:04:11] Exactly. It, it doesn't do anything. It, it's a waste of time. So let's, let's see if they can get that partisanship going here and, and get some real changes made. All

[00:04:25] Jeff Lyons: the end of the year? Well, at first I was thinking. Not much, right? We're gonna stay status quo.

[00:04:58] And maybe it's, uh, [00:05:00] maybe it's September they start to cut rates. But I think you're seeing probably half a point by the end of the year it comes down. Yeah. What's your thought? I,

[00:05:23] Right. I, I think you'll see inflation stay relatively low. I, I, I just, and, but I do think the bond market will stay. Pre, pretty much where it's at now in the treasury market. I, and that's gonna be the key. I don't think that's gonna start lowering down anytime soon. And, and I always say if people have jobs, that fixes a lot and people have jobs, unemployment's low and I don't, barring a Black Swan event, I don't see it going up.

[00:06:06] Jeff Lyons: Yeah, I, I, I think it's, it's, it's, I think there's that fed administration kind of little fight going on so that they each wanna have their own ego. Soothed. So I think that later on in the year that 50%, I think the Fed's gonna say We're worried about the tariffs.

[00:06:41] Mark Ritter - Host: All right, next up, tariffs. Okay. What's gonna happen with the tariff world and the any impact it has

[00:07:00] I'm not that smart. I think so everyone wants to sell to the United States, right? We're, we're the, the consumer that everybody targets, so. It's not hurting us in that respect other than, you know, we might pay more for a few things here and there. It hurts the other countries more. So I think they're gonna be coming back to, to the table for negotiations quicker than we would be on the other side.

[00:07:52] And I think there's going to be a modest 10% tariff [00:08:00] and with maybe a little bit higher in some areas that the US. Could manufacture if they wanted to, or you know, things like steel, you know, where, where, where we get hit with some of those. And, and so I think you'll see a little bit, but I honestly think at the end of the day people are going to say, oh, what about at the end of the year we're gonna be like, Hey, remember the, all the tariff conversation?

[00:08:51] Jeff Lyons: Yeah.

[00:09:10] I think it's always gonna be there, but it's a, it'll be, it'll work itself

[00:09:22] Jeff Lyons: You know, this whole Elon Trump fight that's just broken out on, on X is, is entertaining to me. They went from. Heroes to zeroes real quick with each other. And part of me thinks, did they do this on purpose to gain more attention?

[00:10:08] I don't know that it passes the Senate to be honest with you.

[00:10:36] That, and I think everybody agrees with that. And you'll see some stuff get thrown in there. Little, you know, everybody will kind of have these little carve outs and, but I don't think you're gonna see massive spending cuts. No, uh, I don't think, I don't think the Congress people have the appetite for it.

[00:11:15] Jeff Lyons: Well, uh, like we talked about right in the beginning of this, it, it has been pretty robust and, and we're doing good. And, but there are pockets here and there where for various reasons, not just, you know, there are, it's not, the economies aren't well in these areas, but the credit unions have have decided to take those steps back.

[00:11:57] But we've seen these 7, 8, 9, [00:12:00] 10% loans. I mean, interest rates for a long time. It's, it's probably normal. It gets you more income on your, your, your money in your money market. So it's not an abnormal or horrible interest rate scenario. And I think people have just got comfortable with it. Yeah. His, so I think it, sorry.

[00:12:19] Jeff Lyons: rates are pretty average. Yeah. And, and I think they'll come, like we talked about, maybe a 50% drop. That'll help a little bit. I don't know what it does to pricing. I, you know, I've talked to a few people who are trying to sell their homes now, and there's just not a lot of takers. All of a sudden there's not a lot of visitors, so there's a little concerning there as far as values.

[00:12:45] Mark Ritter - Host: Yeah, I think, I think home values were so inflated. That, uh, it, what, what I think we'll see a little bit more normal and if the, if the market softened just slightly, it's still pretty good market. [00:13:00]

[00:13:15] I mean, home-based businesses are easier than ever to start up. They're the SBA, for whatever reason, always does well. So I see. This boom coming from the for on those SBA type of startups and new type of businesses. I think we're gonna see a good jump in that aspect too, down the road. So maybe not this year per se, but the end of this year into 26, I think it's gonna do very well.

[00:13:56] Jeff Lyons: Yeah. You know, I, I bleed red and everyone's screaming about, you know, [00:14:00] they have a tough schedule. Well, I mean, I, you know, looking at it, I.

[00:14:24] They got 12 games, you know, Ohio, Miami, Ohio, Norfolk State, there's three right? Um, Rutgers is picked to finish in the middle of the pack, their ninth. Okay. Looking at the schedule, the hard part, and it's actually the end of the season, right? We play Oregon, Ohio State and finish with Penn State, like boom, boom, boom.

[00:14:53] Mark Ritter - Host: Seven and a half. So I'm going with, unfortunately, I think Penn State's gonna have the same season they [00:15:00] have as last year of 10 and two, gets them into the playoffs and then you never know because they'll have a veteran team.

[00:15:17] Mark Ritter - Host: Indiana and Nebraska. So if they have, uh, there's some tough teams in there, but we'll see. Well,

[00:15:26] Mark Ritter - Host: have Villanova, the tougher basketball game than a football game.

[00:15:30] Jeff Lyons: on. Right. Who else are you playing? Nevada. FIU. Okay. Yeah. It's the same thing, right? I mean, Penn state's up, they're picked to finish third, and, and they play the two teams above them. They play Oregon at home. That's a showcase game. They could pull that one off. Right?

[00:15:57] Jeff Lyons: Oh boy. Fingers crossed.