Today we’re going to discuss recession, what it is, and what to do during one. Spending is down, the stock market isn’t performing, inflation is out of control, interest rates are higher than we’ve seen since 1994, and we feel the effects everywhere in the economy and not just in the US. 

It comes down to how we’re each living our lives financially. Do we have enough built up in our savings? Can we decrease spending on wants so that needs can be met?

Some common things that happen during a recession are:

• Inflation goes up
• Consumer spending goes down
• Hiring slows down and may even freeze
• Many people decide to go back to school
• Unemployment goes up

In 2008, when the housing market crashed housing prices massively decreased. It doesn’t look like that will happen this time. We have already been through a global pandemic which has changed the economic situation dramatically, so many of us are still trying to recover from that. Only time will tell what happens from here.

My guest Brock is our tax strategist here at The Freelance CFO. Join us next week for part 2 where we’ll walk you through some anxiety reducing measures to help you through this difficult time.

We cover ALL of this in the “Get Your Finance Sh*t Together” self-study course at confidentmoneypodcast.com!

Join our community at confidentmoneypodcast.com where we’ll share tips and resources, and you can suggest topics for future episodes.

Enter to win a free strategy session with me!  Leave a 5-star review and include your IG handle to enter. We draw the winner at the beginning of each month. 

FTC/Affiliate Disclaimer: By using some of these links, at no extra cost to you, I may earn a small commission or referral fee, which helps me continue to produce content like this, support my business, and my team.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. My podcast is for educational purposes and is my personal opinion only. To make the best financial decision for your situation, please do your own research and if needed, seek the advice of a fee-based, fiduciary.

Music credit: Neon Fairies by Wolves 

A Podcast Launch Bestie production

Hey, welcome back to confident money podcast.

I'm your host, Caitlin Magnuson.

And today we have a really special guest Brock Brock is our tax

strategist here at the freelance CFO.

And we're gonna be talking about the recession.

I feel like this has been a hot button issue on social media.

And a lot of our clients have been asking questions about it.

And so we're gonna take this episode to explain what a recession is,

what that kind of can mean for people in their finances, and then

stay tuned for the next episode.

Cause we're gonna go into actionable steps for what you can be doing to

better prepare yourself Brock welcome.

Thank you.

Thank you for helping me.

Very exciting.

So everyone's been talking about the recession.

I've been seeing it all over social media Brock.

What is a recession?

Okay.

A recession is basically a decrease in consumer spending GDP.

And it is a result, after continuous downturn in the economy.

Um, until we actually hit the, point of a recession.

So right now, I think this last week we actually hit a bear market,

which is a 20% I believe, decrease.

So the next step would be a recession.

There's there's discussion about if we're actually gonna hit it.

But I from what I've been reading and.

experience that we've seen in the, you know, in the last couple decades,

I'm pretty sure that it's it.

It's a common

I, I would agree with you.

If not this, I would be shocked if it wasn't this quarter, but yes.

So with a recession, What does that generally look like?

You know, economically for a lot of people like I, you and I

both went through, what was it?

2008 recession.

Um, and I, I remember what that looked like for us and for our household and for

myself, cause I was 18 living on my own, but for people that maybe haven't lived

through recession or maybe were living at home and aren't totally up to speed,

how does that impact their day to day lives or, you know, their society around.

Yeah.

So I just remember a lot with 2008 and the additional struggles I think,

you know, always gonna have struggles, in our financial lives and especi.

As we're younger and starting to kind of get into our careers and, and out of

schooling and everything, but it's even more difficult usually during a recession.

So consumer spending usually goes down just because as a result of people just

don't have as much disposable income.

The stock market is not performing.

So people aren't making as much money on their investments.

Um, as we're seeing gas prices are kind of going up, so costs are going

up, but that doesn't necessarily.

Uh, mean anybody's making any more money.

Inflation is out of control as we see interest rates higher, um,

increase than we've seen since 1994.

Um, you know, it's, it's, we really feel the effects everywhere in the

economy and it's not just in the us, you know, um, abroad other countries

that especially ones that do heavy trade with the us are definitely gonna

feel repercussions from the recess.

But really it, it comes down to just the difference of how we're

living our life financially.

So that, that means how are we preparing for it?

Do we have enough built up in our savings?

Are we able to kind of decrease our, um, our spending to kind of match really

where our needs lie versus just our wants.

Another thing that happens in a recession is a lot of people go back to school or

we get a lot more non-traditional students in college and secondary education,

which is actually a great opportunity.

If, you are looking to go back to school for a couple years, Or, or,

you know, get that extra degree, get a certificate, anything like that.

Recession's actually kind of a, a good time to do that because, we are

still able to go and get student loans and funding and everything like that.

But , we don't really have a lot of other El other things that we can

do because, growth, in the consumer sector and in, in the job market and

everything very much slows hiring typically freezes with most companies.

backfilled roles, are kind of stop.

I would say there tends to be a lot more attrition too.

Um, people get really scared.

And there's a lot of panic that ensues and I think a lot of panic spending

which as we've seen through COVID can lead to all kinds of other detri.

You know, at the grocery store, as we're already seen with gas.

It's multifaceted and it's, it's really the best way that I think of

a recession is a time to really cut back in and look at your financial

picture and make sure that you can survive through, um, a time where the

economy really isn't in your favor.

Um, of course people too, who have very heavy investments in the stock market and

who aren't as liquid, run into a lot of issues, because they have intense losses.

You know, if they depend on that as regular income, that's gonna

slow and everything like that.

So when we are bearing, you know, we go through a bear market and

we're gearing up for a recession is the perfect time to really.

At your finances, make sure you're prepared.

Definitely look at your area in general too.

I mean, the, recession is gonna affect all of us.

Um, but definitely more areas get more affected.

You're gonna see a lot more urban areas get hit pretty hard.

but you know, it, it kind of just depends.

Everyone's gonna feel in a little different of a way, because

it deals with our economy.

It, there's just so many different areas that we're gonna see some

repercussions and some effects from, from how the economy has been doing.

I feel like inflation has just been crazy and we are really feeling that.

Think it has a lot to do with the housing market this time around,

because I think last time, a lot of the housing market discussion.

was around the recession.

Yeah, I think that that's gonna be really interesting

because as some of our listeners know, I bought my last house or my first

house, technically at the age of 20, which everyone's like, oh, that's great.

Which it's great.

It was a huge accomplishment.

Right.

But it was only because of that 2008 recession that I could afford that

house it's sold in 2006 for more than I could have afforded in 2010.

And we saw kind of a full scale.

Collapse and revamping or rebirthing even of the housing, you know, the,

the loan industry and everything that was going on that allowed or

set this up kind of for the perfect storm and perfect collapse in 2008.

And for everyone listening, I, we actually have a mini season coming out.

In just a couple of weeks with a loan officer where we talk about the like

actual differences and changes that have been made to loans since that time.

But everything that I've been reading and I'm interested in, you know, getting

your thoughts on this Brock, but normally a recession is marked by, you know,

that negative growth as you know, in the economy as a whole and a decrease in home

prices and increase in unemployment rates.

Right.

So all of.

Kind of a, Hmm.

You know, period of decline, depression in, you know, economic activity.

And we saw that being really pretty heavy in the unemployment

and the housing market arena.

And this time around.

From what I've seen.

I don't think it's going to cause the massive decrease in home prices like

we saw in the last recession, because there have been a lot of changes in

the loan practices, but there's also still such a massive demand for homes.

And my understanding is that home building has not ramped

back up to where it was pre 2008.

And so we're still behind in building homes that are needed for buyers.

So we might see, you know, maybe.

a stagnation in prices, but I'm not expecting to see some,

you know, massive decrease.

What do you

Yeah, no, I think you're right, because I think a lot of the

issues the last time were people were qualified for loans that they couldn't.

We were oversaturating the market with, with qualifications that

weren't true qualifications, really.

So those have gotten a lot stricter and really what we're seeing now is

just the pricing of the houses and that that's really putting people out

of the, the housing market completely.

So I don't think we're gonna feel it as much on the housing.

When you mentioned unemployment and everything, I think that we've

been dealing with unemployment so strongly since COVID that I think

going into a recession, we're not gonna feel that abruptness like

we did, in the last recession.

And I think that maybe.

Hopefully, you know, we, we have kind of looked at ways

to recover from unemployment already in the last couple years.

And some of those are already kind of in motion and, and the job market kind of

is expanding, you know, not as quickly as we'd like, but we have a long way to go.

Right.

We went, you know, COVID really just did some detriment.

To, to the job market and unemployment was, you know, all time high.

So to come back from that takes takes quite a while.

But I think given that the last recession was not too long ago and

still kind of fresh in people's minds.

And it scared a lot of people that I hope that people are a little bit more

prepared this time, so that maybe the unemployment doesn't hit us as hard.

Um, but that being said, you know, people are still recovering from COVID.

You know, people still are getting their finances, trying

to get them back in order.

So recession does not come at a great time,

No, it doesn't.

I'm not gonna say there's ever a great time for it, but I feel

like we're just getting, you know, kicked while we're down.

Right.

We we've gotten through the majority of COVID.

We, you know, have a pretty good handle on it.

We had some support programs that were rolled out, you know, during the pandemic.

And now a lot of those support programs have ended or had funds exhausted,

and we're still not totally recovered.

Economically socially, you know, health wise to where we were pre pandemic.

And I'm gonna be interested to see, because it's caused such a shift in

industries and in work and in, you know, people's focus on health and

work life balance and working remotely.

I'm gonna be really intrigued to see what that looks like.

If we do go into a recession because we are.

I'm gonna say maybe primed a little bit better for it than we were beforehand.

We may not see as big of a hit as we saw in 2008 with unemployment.

absolutely.

I think even just technological advancements, advancements in business

in general, really do allow us other routes of cost cutting and other

ways that we can do our business.

Whereas we didn't have some of those, um, opportunities in 2008 at that time.

And then, you know, another thing you kind of mentioned the, the programs that have

kind of ended since COVID, you know, and we, the worry I have with those is we've

seen so much criticism, um, politically with how those programs were rolled out.

If they were effective, if not now, a lot of people kind of put a lot of

blame towards inflation because of them.

Um, and I, you know, and of course I don't wanna get political, but

what I'm saying is, I don't know that there's gonna be as much.

Opportunity for getting saved.

Maybe as there was in the last recession and stuff, we, we are

not gonna have as many bailouts and everything because COVID cut us.

So try anyway that, you know, I just don't really think policy makers and

everything are gonna be out there really pushing, to kind of help out,

each other because we we've already extended ourselves so much through COVID.

Um, and we're, we're still where we're at.

Mm-hmm oh,

right.

No, we're we're.

Yeah, exactly.

There's been a lot of financial outlay over the last, what?

Two, two and a half years.

and yeah, I, I have a lot, I think it, I think it helped a lot of people.

I think programs could always be done better, but I think that was

a lifeline that was so incredibly needed for so many people.

Especially for, there were companies that couldn't be open and I know I've seen

a massive reshuffling of our downtown here in Boise, even cuz I moved here.

less than six months before the pandemic started.

And I've gone back to Portland since, and Portland has completely changed

just the businesses that weren't able to stay afloat during, you know, all the

shutdowns and everything that went on.

And so I think we would've seen so much, so many more shutdowns

during that time or so many more closing or shuttering of businesses.

Had we not had a lot of those programs, but I think a lot of it, I know you did

a lot of this and we did a lot of this, um, was getting our clients qualified

for a lot of, you know, the assistance and funding and programs that came

through because they weren't always the easiest to navigate for people that,

you know, That wasn't their forte.

And I feel like they were constantly changing what was going like

we, we saw it with PPP, right?

Um, they changed how you could qualify and if you're qualifying enough, you,

you could pick 2019 versus whatever.

And you could look at what was it your, I think, gross profit versus net profit.

And if you'd already done it, you couldn't like get it revamped.

And so there's always things that could have been done better.

Uh, but I agree.

I think we have exhausted sort of.

Political or economic Goodwill for a lot of these, you know,

funding programs or lifelines and makes me a little bit nervous.

It makes me, it would make me more nervous if we were looking at something

like the size of 2008, but I think that.

Having COVID has prepared a lot of us.

And I think people hear recession, especially that are in their thirties

or forties that have lived through and were adults during the last recession.

And they're, they're really nervous or stressed out about it, or, you

know, it's causing anxiety and

we've kind of, yeah, we've kind of lived through that a little bit already.

Right.

With COVID even just recently.

And so I think that made a lot of us reassess our finances.

And so preparing for this may not be that different for a lot of people, as it would

be, you know, like preparing for COVID.

We did see very weird buying habits and spikes and things during COVID that

I'm hoping we see less of during this.

I was going to mirror that statement because.

I also wish that, um, do I feel like that?

No.

I think that we know how consumers react to things, and a fear

reaction grows strong with us.

So I think that we will see a lot of the, things that we saw in the last time.

I think there are gonna be some businesses again that are going to very much love.

This

kind of panic consuming, across the board.

But I really do think that people, because of the news and everything the mass

awareness is so much stronger right now, um, than it was probably around 2008.

And like you said, the fear of what's already happened in 2008, I think

keeps us a lot of us on our feet,

um, that, you know, at least for me, um, and you, we watch the

market, we see that it's coming.

And what I do is I'm like, okay, I'm I'm I wanna be ahead of the game.

I wanna be prepared.

I wanna make sure I have all my ducks in a row.

And I think that the businesses that did make it through COVID, um, you know,

whether it be, and thank God for PPP for, for so many different industries.

I mean, we wouldn't have a hospitality industry right now if it wasn't for PPP,

but will they, you know, they're just taking this time right now to kind of

recover from what they just got through.

So, you know, it there's that concern that it's.

You know, we, are we gonna kick 'em when they're already down again

and how negatively is that gonna affect our, not just our job market,

but just our consumer market.

Um, you know, business, poor businesses have been through a lot.

Well, I mean, individually we've all been through a lot, but, You know,

small businesses are, you know, constantly, constantly struggling,

um, to meet, to, to meet demands and then to, to structure, you know, the

kind of their plan through to navigate through these recessions and everything.

And they don't have as many options.

Absolutely.

No, and I.

I think that, that, that is the part of this recession

that potentially concerns me.

Right.

Because we have just started to kind of recover recoup funds.

People are taking vacations, you know, we're starting to see some,

or we were starting to see some increase in spending a little bit

last summer, you know, a little bit of a dip over the winter and then kind

of again, with school, getting out.

You know, in the last couple of weeks, we always see sort of an uptick in

that and spending, and we do, we see a decrease in all that when we have

a recession, you know, discretionary spending decreases because people.

Contract, because it's kind of, you know, chicken or the egg, right.

Um, you end, we come into a recession.

People spend less because we're in a recession as well, which then

kind of, you know, furthers some of the, like the recession qualities,

because if you're spending less, then there's less demand for supplies, for

goods, for jobs, for everything else.

unemployment, unemployment just flies up and.

you know, we're, we're struggling enough to get unemployment down.

And that, that part really, really does frighten me.

Um, travel is definitely already seen a big hit, our gas prices and everything.

And I think many are quick to, uh, we kind of touched on this earlier,

but many are quick to look at the housing market and the gas prices.

And say that's where our recession is lying and they're just small

factors into a really big problem.

You know what I mean?

Like we, we see what's happened with inflation and everything and you

know, like you said, spending goes down, jobs, go down, unemployment

goes up, public assistance is down.

It's just such this effect.

And I, I worry, you know, It really does further that disparity between the

people who are prepared and who aren't, because it's such so much more drastic

and housing prices right now are so out, you know, costly that if somebody

says, you know, I'm paying too much in rent, I'm almost up for my new lease.

Gotta get into a, you know, a more affordable place.

Well, whether you want to or not is not necessarily, if you can't, you

know, if you're going to, because the, you know, the demand and

supply and the housing market is so.

You know, just in despair because I mean, I am right now, you know, I have

been looking, um, for an apartment in, in New York and just the, you know, how

quick things go, the prices are just, you know, so high, higher than we've

seen, obviously in the last couple years, because of COVID that people need to

be prepared that not only are we gonna about to see some recessionary measures.

but we already have things working against us, uh, before that.

So I feel like, because we've seen that last recession, we have to prepare

ourselves even more for this one.

Um, because if you don't, you're gonna be, you know, kind of left out

there in the dark and it can be very scary because like we said, trying

to navigate this one without kind of the government on your back, like

back there to kind of support you.

Um, if, if, if, if we do fall, which we all needed the last time, you know, we,

we see how, how it works with consumers.

Like, um, I think what did I read the other day that statistic that

36% of people that make over a hundred thousand dollars right now

are living paycheck to paycheck.

If you would've told me that in 2008, I would've, you know, my,

my head would've blown up, but it's, it's the new normal and.

That is, you know, just us going into the bear market.

So we've, you know, and I think that it's gonna scare people and then

God, everything's just gonna happen quick, but hopefully we are more

prepared and more educated about how to navigate with this time,

which I

think next episode, we will do great with that.

that's exactly what I was just gonna say.

I was like, and, and now that we've kind of educated everyone about.

You know what a recession is, what to, you know, what to potentially expect.

And again, we don't have a crystal ball, right?

So we are just making educated guesses on what we have seen, you

know, over the last 12, what 14 years, and what we expect to see.

I know, I know I just did the mathematics, like, oh my God.

Um, and what we can expect to see based on what we know that has changed in,

you know, our present day and with that.

So this is not meant to be an episode of.

Oh, despair.

There is no hope.

Um, what we're gonna cover on our next episode are actions that you

can be taking now to help set you up.

And I think also ease some potential anxiety right around

your finances around a recession.

So stay tuned for that next week.

And we're gonna go into some real, tangible action steps Brock.

Thank you for being here.

We will have you on next week to chat through what we're gonna

be doing to set everyone up for.

anxiety.

Decreasing measures is what we'll call it.

Yeah, absolutely.

Well, thank you for having me, Caitlin.

It's been awesome.

And I look forward to chatting soon.