 
                Are you spending more on ads but getting less in return? You're not alone. In this eye-opening conversation, Preston Rutherford, co-founder of Chubbies (which achieved a nine-figure exit and continues to see 8 years of consecutive growth), reveals why most modern brands are stuck in what he calls "the performance trap." Preston breaks down the crucial 95-5 rule—the reality that 95% of your audience isn't actively shopping at any given time—and explains why optimizing only for immediate conversions is slowly eroding your brand.
He shares the hard-earned lessons from Chubbies' journey, including their midlife crisis moment when efficiency metrics looked great but the business fundamentals were deteriorating. This isn't about choosing between brand and performance—it's about finding the right balance to build sustainable, profitable growth. If you've ever wondered whether your marketing is building a moat or just buying clicks, this episode is essential listening.
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Sponsored by OMG Commerce - go to (https://www.omgcommerce.com/contact) and request your FREE strategy session today!
—
Chapters:
(00:00) Intro
(04:08) The Journey of Chubbies
(08:49) Navigating Early Success and Marketing Performance
(16:10) Identifying Brand Erosion and Its Consequences
(22:00) 1000 Free Postcards with Post Pilot
(22:58) The 95-5 Rule
(28:53) Balancing Demand Capture and Generation
(32:25) Testing and Incrementality in Marketing
(52:30) Understanding The Brand’s Impact on Revenue
(58:47) Insights from Data Analysis
(1:04:18) Running Media Differently for Brand Building
(1:09:37) Identifying ICP for Marathon Data
(1:12:30) Fast Funding the Way You Need It with Wayflyer
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Past guests on eCommerce Evolution include Ezra Firestone, Steve Chou, Drew Sanocki, Jacques Spitzer, Jeremy Horowitz, Ryan Moran, Sean Frank, Andrew Youderian, Ryan McKenzie, Joseph Wilkins, Cody Wittick, Miki Agrawal, Justin Brooke, Nish Samantray, Kurt Elster, John Parkes, Chris Mercer, Rabah Rahil, Bear Handlon, JC Hite, Frederick Vallaeys, Preston Rutherford, Anthony Mink, Bill D’Allessandro, Stephane Colleu, Jeff Oxford, Bryan Porter and more
It's not because my ad sucks,
Speaker:it's because it's speaking
to saying the wrong thing
Speaker:to this person. At this time,
Speaker:I'm not speaking to this vast majority
of people in the way that they want to be
Speaker:spoken to.
Speaker:Hey, this episode is brought
to you by OMG Commerce.
Speaker:That's the agency that I get
the privilege of running.
Speaker:Do you ever feel like it's Groundhog Day
when it comes to your marketing where
Speaker:every day's the same, you're still
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Speaker:got the same ads you're leaning
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to help you dominate with YouTube ads.
Speaker:Well, hello and welcome to another edition
of the E-Commerce Evolution podcast.
Speaker:I'm your host, Brett
Curry, CEO of OMG Commerce,
Speaker:and today we've got a return guest.
Speaker:This guy is lighting up
LinkedIn on the daily.
Speaker:You can hear him on all your favorite
podcasts if you're into marketing at all
Speaker:and you've ever tried to determine how
much should I be putting into performance
Speaker:versus brand and is any of this
real and how do I measure it,
Speaker:then this guy is a beacon
of light in our industry
Speaker:and so excited to have him back on
the podcast. But I've got the one,
Speaker:the only Preston Rutherford co-founder of
Speaker:Looking Good Today.
Preston, how's it going man?
Speaker:And thanks for coming back on the pod.
Speaker:Yeah, I mean, we were talking
about this a second ago,
Speaker:but I think my first go with you is
my first ever podcast appearance.
Speaker:So thank you for just getting me going.
Speaker:But now I'm excited to be here. This
would be a lot fun, that glowing intro.
Speaker:Playing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you
bet. Playing a very small part in
Speaker:your podcast career there. But
yeah, I think it was the first,
Speaker:I was watching LinkedIn, I was like,
Hey, wait a minute, this guy's good.
Speaker:And it looks like maybe he's just
kind starting to post on LinkedIn.
Speaker:So I jumped on it like, Hey,
come on the pod. And you did.
Speaker:I love it.
Speaker:And the rest is history, man.
Speaker:But I love what you and
team built with Chub.
Speaker:I love how it's continued to succeed and
I want to talk about that a little bit
Speaker:in a minute because it's such
an important note to make.
Speaker:And then I think really the time is right.
Speaker:You've been talking about this for years.
Speaker:The time is right to be thinking
about brand building and performance
Speaker:marketing, sustainable, profitable growth.
Speaker:It's just all kind of lining up.
We had the COVID era rock and roll,
Speaker:crazy Hair on Fire growth where just
grow growth, spend, spend, spend.
Speaker:We'll figure out profits later to,
oh shoot, we got to make money.
Speaker:We're not making any money
now. Let's measure everything.
Speaker:And so I think we're coming to
this place where it's like, okay,
Speaker:let's look at this holistically.
And just so you know,
Speaker:I've always felt like marketing
has to drive some kind of actions.
Speaker:It's got to drive some.
Speaker:If we're advertising and people
do nothing with that advertising,
Speaker:what are we doing? In fact,
you'll appreciate this.
Speaker:My first little consultancy
right out of college,
Speaker:I was working with local businesses,
Speaker:my tagline was marketing that builds
your brand and your bottom line.
Speaker:Love that.
Speaker:I was trying to help the local car
dealership and local retail stores.
Speaker:It was super fun, but.
Speaker:Love.
Speaker:That.
Speaker:I love how you guys have done this
and that led to a nine figure exit
Speaker:with Chub and just your perspective
here is really, really valuable.
Speaker:So maybe talk a little bit about the
journey for those that dunno with
Speaker:Chubby, how you got to your
current philosophy on marketing,
Speaker:and then we'll talk about Chubby's success
right now because it's kind of crazy
Speaker:how well it's doing right now, but
tell us a little bit of the story.
Speaker:Sure, sure, sure. Yeah,
absolutely. So I'm a tiny,
Speaker:tiny part of the success.
So one of four co-founders
Speaker:and we started the business back in 2011.
Speaker:We were four or five years out of college,
Speaker:just didn't want to work for other
people more than anything and just we're
Speaker:looking for something to
start and stumbled upon
Speaker:the shorter, short, the whole
vibe of let's just be different.
Speaker:It was different from what was in Vogue
at the time from a men's app peril
Speaker:perspective where it was very stuffy
and Abercrombie and Fitch shirts off
Speaker:guys standing in front of the store,
spring you with cologne playing horrible.
Speaker:I dunno, German house music or whatever.
Speaker:And.
Speaker:You had to look a certain way, we're too
cool for you, you can't hang with us.
Speaker:And there's, thats the opposite
of what we think should exist.
Speaker:So that was like a foundational premise.
And then the shorts were just super,
Speaker:super long and we all kind grew up
either playing soccer or rugby or we were
Speaker:from the south and all of those things.
Speaker:You're used to sort of
shorts actual short.
Speaker:And then there was a sort of
aspirational look back to our dads
Speaker:on their spring breaks in college when
they were growing up and how awesome they
Speaker:look the mustaches and the
shorter and that whole thing.
Speaker:So all that kind of came together
and we're just like, well shoot,
Speaker:let's just try to, we don't
want to work for other people.
Speaker:It'd be fun to work together. Let's just
try to start something. So I was back.
Speaker:In 21. You guys helped.
Speaker:Were you writing that trend or do you
feel like you kind of propelled that
Speaker:trend? Because there was a time,
Speaker:I'm a kid of the nineties and so we were
with my basketball team in high school.
Speaker:We were coming off of all the old uniforms
from the seventies days were super
Speaker:short.
Speaker:Super short.
Speaker:Shockingly, almost
obscenely short. Exactly.
Speaker:And then it was the Fab five for
missions. Everybody's going baggy shorts.
Speaker:That was the rage. Totally. Now
definitely short, excuse me, the trend.
Speaker:Did you guys launch that trend back to
short or did you just ride the wave that
Speaker:was already there? What's
your perspective on that?
Speaker:I mean, dude, this is 2011,
so I'm obviously very biased,
Speaker:but when we came out with shorter shorts,
Speaker:it was absurdly different. Yeah.
Speaker:I think guys really propelled
that. I think you did. I think.
Speaker:So. Yes, I definitely think so.
Speaker:And it's one of those things that
takes 15 years to really kind of get
Speaker:going. It just takes a long time.
But no, we were starkly different,
Speaker:and I think that was one of the main
reasons why we were able to stand out
Speaker:because there was that latent
demand of people who were,
Speaker:it was like sometimes there were
shorter folks who had to cut the
Speaker:shorts that they had.
Speaker:They had to go to Savers or Goodwill
and they had to find older shorts.
Speaker:Or there were folks who generally,
Speaker:maybe they had bigger quads or something
like that and they wanted to show 'em
Speaker:off.
Speaker:Or you had folks who played
sports and just kind of wanted a
Speaker:better short that just kind of
fit with what they were used to.
Speaker:There were all these sorts of things
where there was latent demand,
Speaker:and so there was this niche of
people who were down with it,
Speaker:but broadly it was very
frowned upon and viewed as
Speaker:stupid and less masculine,
all of this kind of stuff.
Speaker:So we just tried to turn the tables
and did all of these things where from
Speaker:a brand and positioning perspective
made it seem completely,
Speaker:our goal at least was to
make it completely inarguable
that shorts were meant to
Speaker:be short, and that if you were
scared to show off your actual legs,
Speaker:maybe that was representative of a lack
of confidence or that you're hiding
Speaker:something or that what's in
those pockets of those shorts. So
Speaker:yeah, no, it was very rare at the time.
Speaker:It certainly wasn't a trend
that existed in a big way.
Speaker:Totally makes sense. So yeah, I'm going
to credit you guys with that for sure.
Speaker:So you say you don't want to work with
people, you want to work for yourselves,
Speaker:you want something that's not the stuffy
kind of will tell you how to be cool
Speaker:type of thing like Abercrombie
and Fitch and stuff like that.
Speaker:So you launched the brand
then pick us up from there.
Speaker:Sure, yeah.
Speaker:So I mean at the beginning it was like
we had no money and the first person that
Speaker:we went to work with to actually make
some shorts for us just took our money.
Speaker:So it wasn't a blazing
start I guess I would say.
Speaker:But we kind of funded the
early days with pre-sales.
Speaker:We were just trying to get emails,
Speaker:sign people up or we were doing
straight up in-person sales.
Speaker:We'd do events at bars or we
would sell shorts at the park
Speaker:very hand-to-hand combat sort of thing
that I think I highly recommend for
Speaker:anyone who's just starting a
brand sell stuff in person,
Speaker:but then started to get some early success
Speaker:and I think started to grow a little
bit, which was the early goal.
Speaker:And it was the time of Facebook ads
were just becoming a thing and you could
Speaker:spend a dollar get 10 out or
whatever the exorbitant number was at
Speaker:the time, same.
Speaker:Numbers.
Speaker:And you just start to feel
this godlike power that,
Speaker:I mean, you can't necessarily cure cancer,
Speaker:but you can sell shorts on the internet
and put a dollar in and get 10 out
Speaker:pretty.
Speaker:Print profit profits at will. Yeah,
Speaker:it was kind of like the very early
days of Google where you were literally
Speaker:getting five and Tencent clicks.
Speaker:It's like you could literally print money
and then those were such unique times
Speaker:that great take advantage of that.
It was never going to last forever.
Speaker:So that's kind of.
Speaker:Well didn't, that's the thing,
we didn't know that, right?
Speaker:I mean it's hard to know that because
you're like, why would this stop?
Speaker:No, I don't understand the macro dynamics.
Speaker:So we basically got obsessed with
that kind of thing, just like, oh,
Speaker:following the trend of what works,
what drives that 10 x ROAS or whatever.
Speaker:And so I think we were growing and
I think because we were just so new,
Speaker:we were doing the brand building thing,
Speaker:we just knew that was the way to
differentiate and we couldn't spend 30% of
Speaker:revenue on marketing,
Speaker:so we had to do crazy stuff that was free.
Speaker:So that did the brand building
stuff in the early days.
Speaker:But then as we started to get more of a
flow and we needed more consistency and
Speaker:predictability,
Speaker:that's when we just rotated into
just the pure demand capture.
Speaker:There was this latent demand
for fun apparel short kind of
Speaker:thing,
Speaker:and we were just capturing that so we
didn't feel the pain because we didn't
Speaker:need to create new demand for our brand,
Speaker:for our product until we needed to.
And then that was less fun and that was
Speaker:about halfway in. And so we hit a little
bit of a midlife crisis if you'll,
Speaker:but then that's kind of where we had to
rebuild the business from the ground up
Speaker:again, all the credit to the team, all
the credit to the other founders here.
Speaker:I'm just a tiny, tiny part. I just
talk about it on the internet,
Speaker:but I was generally the one
who was representative of
all of bad decision making
Speaker:and it was the other founders who
were more representative of like, no,
Speaker:let's build this thing for the
long term. Let's find balance.
Speaker:And so then we had to learn what
demand creation, demand capture,
Speaker:what that balance looks like, how to
measure it, how to think about it,
Speaker:how to allocate that capital. But
ultimately it resulted a great,
Speaker:you mentioned all I can share
is a nine figure acquisition,
Speaker:but now we're going on eight years
of top and bottom line growth.
Speaker:I'm not in the business anymore,
Speaker:but Rainer one of the four co-founders
and exceptional team, great guy,
Speaker:great team on an absolutely
crushing it. It's.
Speaker:Awesome. Yeah,
Speaker:it really speaks to what you guys
built in the early days and to
Speaker:see that sustained growth means
that you got a lot of it right?
Speaker:You got product right, you got team,
Speaker:you got the approach to brand
building and performance marketing.
Speaker:You got that mix. And so I want
to dive in here a little bit.
Speaker:One of the things you talk about a lot
online and that you and I have talked
Speaker:about one-to-one is had this
idea of the performance trap and
Speaker:brand erosion,
Speaker:which I know is kind of the trap you
guys fell into when you thought the 10 to
Speaker:one row as was going to go on
forever and ever, and then it did,
Speaker:and then you're like, oh shoot, what
do we do now? How to rebuild things,
Speaker:but talk about that a little bit.
Speaker:What is that performance
trap and brand erosion?
Speaker:How does a brand know they're in it?
Speaker:And then we'll talk about
how do you get out of it?
Speaker:Sure. Yeah. I mean I
think it's that feeling,
Speaker:you feel it in your gut
where you're just like, Hmm,
Speaker:this can't be right.
Speaker:This doesn't feel like this
is what leads to a long-term
Speaker:generational sort of thing.
Speaker:You kind of look back at
your actions and you're like,
Speaker:am I truly generating building
desirability for my brand
Speaker:kind of thing or am I just making all
of these withdrawals without making any
Speaker:deposits? If you want to use a
bank account metaphor analogy,
Speaker:but then it shows up in the data too.
Speaker:I mean people will cite
a variety of stats.
Speaker:My C is going, my customer
acquisition cost is going up,
Speaker:or my CPMs are going up,
or my reach is going down,
Speaker:cost per a thousand accounts reached
going down or contribution margins
Speaker:going down. I ran a sale this year,
Speaker:I ran the same sale last year and the
lift from the sale this year was like
Speaker:50% of what I got last year. So next
year I'm going to have to double the
Speaker:discount. Or the only way
I can scale spend on X, Y,
Speaker:Z channel is if there's a really strong
offer now and I can't just talk about my
Speaker:product, I've got to throw an offer on it.
Speaker:All of these sorts of things where you
just look at the business and you're
Speaker:like, man,
Speaker:do I feel like I'm in a more defensible
position or do I feel more reliant on
Speaker:the ad platforms?
Speaker:Am I getting as much of my revenue from
people searching for my brand name and
Speaker:coming to my site and buying as I am
from a click on a buy button on an ad?
Speaker:You start to realize that probably
the answer is no to that, right?
Speaker:That part of, let's call it,
Speaker:I don't want to call it organic
demand or unpaid demand,
Speaker:but just the purchase behaviors
that were driving the mix of that
Speaker:over time can start to
get a little bit more over
Speaker:indexed onto the Let's fight for clicks
and get the click kind of thing. You
Speaker:get into a place where
you're like, well, shoot,
Speaker:my ROAS is like whatever the number is,
Speaker:and I've been able to grow
it, but has my business grown.
Speaker:You start to see those disconnect between
these metrics that we use to evaluate
Speaker:how we spend our money
and the actual business.
Speaker:And you start to get into these perverse
incentive situations where you're like,
Speaker:okay,
Speaker:I've got to be at a marketing efficiency
ratio of a five or something like that.
Speaker:Great. And then I need to maximize
realize within that context. Great,
Speaker:and I need to get a blended five
on that. So you're like, okay,
Speaker:well I could just remove
some audience exclusions and
Speaker:that will help me get a
little bit of a higher,
Speaker:realize I could retarget
a little bit more.
Speaker:I could spend a little bit
more on brand key with,
Speaker:you can do all these things
where you're just like, well no,
Speaker:we need to capture that demand. We need
to make sure we're defending our brand.
Speaker:We need to make sure we're
doing X, y, z, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker:The meta algorithm will
handle it or whatever.
Speaker:And we can get into these slippery
slopes where it's like, huh,
Speaker:but maybe I'm just claiming credit for
a lot of transactions that would've
Speaker:already happened. So anyways, there's
this whole cycle where it's like, okay,
Speaker:well we're spending more to get less.
Speaker:I'm discounting more now.
Speaker:I'm more and more competing on
the level of features and price
Speaker:rather than just who I I'm as a brand.
Speaker:It ultimately manifests generally in
contribution dollars going down or
Speaker:contribution margin going down just like
the cash flowing through the business.
Speaker:Even if revenue's going up,
Speaker:the cash actually dropping
to cover your fixed costs,
Speaker:you're not looking as good as you
would generally like it to look.
Speaker:And if you trend that out two
years, three years, four years,
Speaker:it's no bueno kind of thing.
Speaker:You see where we're headed
in the wrong direction.
Speaker:Sometimes as ROAS climbs
or often as ROAS climbs,
Speaker:your overall contribution margin may
be going down and the incremental
Speaker:impact, incremental lift of your marketing
dollars often going down as well,
Speaker:meaning we're making ourselves feel good
by looking in the ad account and pat
Speaker:ourselves on the back
with great ROAS numbers,
Speaker:but ultimately we're not driving
new customers at an acceptable cost.
Speaker:We're not fueling we organic growth,
Speaker:we're not actually
driving the brand to grow.
Speaker:And that is absolutely no bueno.
Speaker:Two points of nuance on that super
quickly, two points of nuance on that.
Speaker:We were mentioning CAC
and customer acquisition.
Speaker:I got to hit my new customer count.
Speaker:So then one of the things that you do
kind of as a last ditch effort or it just
Speaker:continues and you don't stop it,
Speaker:but it's like bring them in with these
big promos, right? You're like, oh,
Speaker:I hit my new customer goal
crushed on new customers.
Speaker:And then you look back six months later
and you're like, wow, that cohort LTV is
Speaker:horrible and I'm predicting
some of my worst.
Speaker:Customers that I've ever had right there.
Speaker:Yeah. I'm predicting I'm requiring so
much revenue from that cohort to just
Speaker:float my business and it's not
manifesting. That's doom spiral land.
Speaker:You know what I mean? And so that's
one other thing where you're just like,
Speaker:oh wow, okay,
Speaker:I'm predicting an LTB to CAC and
now that's not a real number at
Speaker:all because of how I've driven so much
new customer acquisition through just buy
Speaker:now promo 15 minutes rather
than I freaking love this brand,
Speaker:I'm going to buy from them. Stepping
nuance number one where it's like, okay,
Speaker:it's not just about hitting your new
customer count goals, it matters,
Speaker:but it's like how we get them in.
Speaker:Number two is maybe more
of a subjective thing where
Speaker:I kind of think about it
as being the wacky, wavy,
Speaker:inflatable tube man kind of blow up
mascot at used car dealerships where it's
Speaker:That kind of being the typical or
even the sleazy used card sales person
Speaker:where it's just like, okay, we're
going to use all the tactics.
Speaker:That's the whole idea. You look at,
Speaker:if I'm just going to be putting out 10
million impressions of those 10 million
Speaker:impressions,
Speaker:how many of those impressions are with
creative that is like fricking buy right
Speaker:now. Here's a problem you
have. Here's my solution,
Speaker:here are the top features and here's
50% off if you buy right now versus
Speaker:I'm just going to make you laugh and it's
going to tie back to what I do and who
Speaker:I'm, but that builds the brand,
that builds the desirability,
Speaker:that preps the 95% that I know
we're going to talk about.
Speaker:You pick your head up as a founder,
as a marketer, as a whoever,
Speaker:and you're like, I don't like how
this mix has shifted. I don't really,
Speaker:is this how I'm presenting myself
to the world? You know what I mean?
Speaker:And that is one of those humbling
things where you're just like, oh crap.
Speaker:Regardless of what any metric says,
that just is not right. You know what I.
Speaker:Mean? If.
Speaker:All we are at the end of the day is a
feeling that gets someone to take an
Speaker:action to stop them from buying the
incumbent who's currently meeting their
Speaker:needs for what I'm trying to do, that's
the thing where you're just like,
Speaker:I think I got to change. So those
are two nuance on that front.
Speaker:Yeah, I love that. And
I'll share a quick story.
Speaker:When I was right out of college,
Speaker:I was doing some consulting with local
businesses and met this piano dealer.
Speaker:Great guy, loved him,
Speaker:but they found out that the only success
they were really having was these going
Speaker:out of business sales.
Speaker:And so they would sign up to
acquire this distressed piano
Speaker:dealer and then they would
just do a liquidation sale.
Speaker:And they got so addicted to their,
Speaker:we just got to go out
of business every month.
Speaker:They have these distressed
inventory sales every month,
Speaker:and that's legitimately what
they did. So they would start,
Speaker:we've got this distressed inventory
from this dealership in Illinois,
Speaker:it has to go today, and that's
all they could get to work.
Speaker:So it's like we're going out of business
every month. That's our strategy.
Speaker:And that's an extreme example,
but totally this discount spiral.
Speaker:That's what some D two C brands can
get into as well where it's like,
Speaker:I can only exist if I give these
deep discounts and dial up the
Speaker:urgency to 11, then I can make money
otherwise I can't. And it's like,
Speaker:I like this brand building where
you're still creating desire,
Speaker:still making people say, I want that.
Speaker:I want those shorts or I want that look,
Speaker:but it's not the same buy now limited
inventory going out of business type of
Speaker:thing. It's just a totally
different approach.
Speaker:Totally. Yeah. I mean we can talk
tactics and positioning all day,
Speaker:but the going out of sale thing and
only doing that over and over is just
Speaker:classic.
Speaker:Yeah,
Speaker:it's like the perfect picture
there of the trap we can get into.
Speaker:For.
Speaker:Sure. Everyone can imagine the sign.
Speaker:You can imagine what the ad
looks like on local tv, right?
Speaker:Because all seen it before.
Speaker:I kind of joked too. I was like, we need
to start running ads where we're like,
Speaker:we're still going out of business,
Speaker:it's just we're going out
of business again. So yeah,
Speaker:pretty funny. Today's episode
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out. But this is for new users only.
Speaker:Just go to post pilot.com and tell
them that we sent you to claim your
Speaker:credits break through that digital
noise and beat rising ad costs.
Speaker:That's direct mail done post pilot.com.
Speaker:Well, let's talk about this shift
that you had where you talk about your
Speaker:95 5 rule,
Speaker:and I think part of the point that you've
been making and I've been making for
Speaker:years is a lot of our businesses
have succeeded off of just capturing
Speaker:existing demand. Not a bad thing.
Speaker:We got to have demand capture
and demand generation.
Speaker:You got to have those balanced
and the right mix and whatnot.
Speaker:But talk about the 95
5 rule. What is that?
Speaker:How do you use that to
approach healthy growth?
Speaker:Yeah, and this is not,
I wish it were mine.
Speaker:I think it comes from
the Berg Bass Institute,
Speaker:which I would definitely
look them up and John
Speaker:and Byron Sharp and the
book, how Brands, all This
Speaker:availability gets into
some marketingy stuff,
Speaker:which kind of makes me
gloss over personally,
Speaker:which is why I try to make this
stuff a little bit more fun.
Speaker:But the general idea is, and I didn't
know about this until more recently,
Speaker:so I felt it felt like a jumble of
pain and anxiety in my soul when I was
Speaker:actually running the media myself
and in the trenches operating.
Speaker:But just the general idea that
Speaker:95% of our audience at any
given time is not actively
Speaker:shopping for my category.
Speaker:So what there is two things. One,
Speaker:if I'm spending 95 or a hundred
percent of my marketing dollars where
Speaker:the goal or the outcome of
success is I convince you to
Speaker:purchase, there's this massive mismatch,
Speaker:and this is how I think we were
for a long time at Chevy's,
Speaker:we were spending 95% of our
dollars going to demand capture,
Speaker:rational appeal product offer urgency.
I'm going to get you right now.
Speaker:And a better ad is just an
ad that is more convincing,
Speaker:but we were only hitting that five ish
percent of people, the vast minority,
Speaker:whether it's 95, 5 or 85, whatever
the number is, there's that.
Speaker:And then the other idea,
Speaker:it's simply being the creative
Speaker:that crushes it for the 5% just
goes in one year and out the
Speaker:other for the 95%, right?
Not actively shopping.
Speaker:So it's kind of like if you've heard
of the term reticular activation or
Speaker:reticular.
Speaker:Love, it's like.
Speaker:Okay, I want a red Ferrari,
Speaker:so then I see red Ferraris
Freaking everywhere kind of thing.
Speaker:Where if it's not that, you just don't
see it, right? You don't even see it.
Speaker:So I'm just like if I'm
only evaluating my creative,
Speaker:my media, whatever it is by
how I'm capturing that demand,
Speaker:my job with the 95 is to prep them,
generate a memory, generate a feeling,
Speaker:get someone to say, I freaking
love that ad when X, Y,
Speaker:Z happens with that brand.
Speaker:One of my favorite ads of all time,
that just maybe hit me at a great time.
Speaker:I don't know,
Speaker:it was the classic Dollar Shave Club
ad that YouTube ad was just so epic,
Speaker:funny, so memorable. You had to
watch it, could talk about it.
Speaker:It was easy to refer to
watch it multiple times.
Speaker:And I'd like to think CHS made a bunch
of those as well, and I think we did.
Speaker:But from another brand
and just going way back,
Speaker:that was one that just true classic true
classics. First big video ad I think
Speaker:was fricking awesome. The guys sitting
in the office love their product boss.
Speaker:It's just such a memorable scene where
just that captures what we're all about.
Speaker:And I remember it and
there's countless examples,
Speaker:but I'm just thinking about
more modern brands and that
Speaker:probably did a really good,
Speaker:both of those probably did a really
good job at capturing demand, right?
Speaker:You're like, that's freaking awesome
because these are unicorn basic creative,
Speaker:but it did a much better job at just
prepping all of these people who are,
Speaker:I don't need a razor subscription
today kind of thing, but,
Speaker:or I don't need a bunch of t-shirts
today because I just bought some crappy
Speaker:Hanes at Macy's or whatever.
But I will when my wife says,
Speaker:you look ugly, and I'm going to think.
Speaker:So I think those are the things
where if it was just like 20% off
Speaker:product shot, white
background, buy now, buy now,
Speaker:that'd be total wasted money. I think
that's the kind of general idea was that
Speaker:totally floored me where
it was like, oh my gosh,
Speaker:it's not because my ad sucks,
Speaker:it's because it's speaking to
the wrong saying the wrong thing
Speaker:to this person at this time,
Speaker:I'm not speaking to this vast majority
of people in the way that they want to be
Speaker:spoken to. My job there is to
prep to drive that emotion,
Speaker:whereas with the 5% or whatever
the number is, rational appeal,
Speaker:be as efficient as possible. You've to
your point, you got to balance that.
Speaker:We call it brand and
monetization, build that brand,
Speaker:build that mental
availability, build whatever,
Speaker:but then you got to clear
that funnel the best of them.
Speaker:And many of us are good at that, right?
Speaker:The thing we're not doing is filling
the funnel or building the desirability,
Speaker:but it's not,
Speaker:the whole idea here is just to add
balance because many modern brands,
Speaker:they've gotten out of
balance and it makes sense,
Speaker:right? Because the data that we now
have access to makes us feel like we're
Speaker:media gods and that that's all
there is and that's capital T
Speaker:truth.
Speaker:But I think everyone kind of learns
when you start to feel this and everyone
Speaker:feels this and you earn this problem,
Speaker:this means you've gotten to this place
and you've stayed in business long enough
Speaker:to have
Speaker:is the ceiling for my brand or why am I
spending more to get all of these sorts
Speaker:of things? So you earn this problem,
it's a great problem to have,
Speaker:but it's just like a classic what got
us here won't get us there sort of
Speaker:situation. And it's like, okay, reset.
Speaker:What does balance look like for us now?
Speaker:How do we get to that
next stage of growth?
Speaker:And I would love to hear
your perspective on this.
Speaker:I've got a couple thoughts myself,
Speaker:but how do we find that
right mix of demand
Speaker:capture and demand generation?
Speaker:I do agree with you that most modern
brands are better at the demand capture
Speaker:piece, whether that's through met Google
or likely a combination of the two.
Speaker:But how do we find that right mix of
demand generation, demand capture?
Speaker:How do you view that?
Speaker:Totally. I mean I think what we learned
for the Chu's example, for instance.
Speaker:Would say.
Speaker:We're at 95 5 in favor of performance,
right? 5% was just the slush fund,
Speaker:you know what I mean?
Speaker:That just would get cut if you miss
a number on a month kind of thing.
Speaker:And I was like, okay, great. Nice to
have. I don't have any metrics against it,
Speaker:blah, blah, blah. And then I think
Speaker:where we evolved over time after
midlife crisis, let's say two,
Speaker:three years after that, and
again, buckets are tough.
Speaker:So to say this is brand and
this is DR and blah, blah, blah.
Speaker:It's like a channel tactic, creative
kind of thing. What's the job to be done?
Speaker:So we can have that conversation,
but broadly, just to give numbers,
Speaker:it got close-ish to that 60
40, right? The classic brand,
Speaker:60% to brand, 40% to activation.
Speaker:And it's not just on the paid side
too, right? It's like we've got email.
Speaker:Email is a freaking awesome way
to capture demand workforce,
Speaker:and I'm not paying that much for
what we did a lot and SMS too.
Speaker:So what we did a lot of was like,
Speaker:let's also view that as our demand
capture engine as well. And not
Speaker:only use paid for bottom funnel
demand capture because that can just,
Speaker:and it's a math problem,
Speaker:but what is the cheapest
way to get you to exit my
Speaker:funnel is kind of part of the way
to think about it. But yeah, man.
Speaker:And that freaks people out,
right? No one is at 50 50,
Speaker:no one's even at 40% to brand. No, I
mean maybe if you're Clorox or whatever,
Speaker:but if we're talking modern
brands that freaks people out,
Speaker:they think lack of accountability,
lack of measurement,
Speaker:they think lighting money on fire.
Speaker:So the easier answer and what I
think is a productive answer is just
Speaker:more To brand building more to demand.
Speaker:You're so far from having
a conversation, we're like,
Speaker:is this too much brand building?
Most of us are sub 10%.
Speaker:So if it's 10, get to 11.
If it's 11, get to 12%.
Speaker:Find a way to inch that up
and just test maniacally.
Speaker:And you can talk about what
we're testing and how we measure.
Speaker:But I think one of the big things is
Speaker:there's this humbling
reality that for many brands,
Speaker:if you just take the 10%
least efficient spend on dr,
Speaker:well first of all,
Speaker:you got to do those tests to find
what the 10% least efficient is.
Speaker:Most brands are just like, no, this
is my bread and butter. It works.
Speaker:And if you ask them, how well does it
work? If you were to cut spend 10%,
Speaker:what would happen if you were
to pulse spend up 30% in a week?
Speaker:What would happen? Would you see 30%
more growth? No, I've not done that.
Speaker:We can't do those tests. No. Or you
explain it away in a variety of different,
Speaker:so I think the first part there is let's
get to a little bit more precision on
Speaker:the level of incrementality.
Speaker:If we're spending 95% on performance
and the thing like the bread and butter,
Speaker:like our top spending ad sets, let's
pressure test the hell out of that first.
Speaker:And that kind of opens up the conversation
because the whole reason why there's
Speaker:a debate about the split of brand and
performance is because a fear that you'll
Speaker:waste money if you put it towards brand.
Speaker:But the reality is that
most brands not all,
Speaker:are already wasting way more money,
Speaker:not pressure testing their
existing performance spend.
Speaker:They don't have a testing framework.
They're testing, and I love house.
Speaker:I think they're the coolest.
Speaker:I love measured all
incrementality testing is amazing.
Speaker:However, what I would encourage, and
I'm sure they encourage the same,
Speaker:is let's test some of our
bigger closer held assumptions
Speaker:rather than these little ticky tack
micro optimizations on the margin that
Speaker:you're like, oh, was trying nothing.
Speaker:Is trying a view content
versus an add to cart,
Speaker:is that going to, sure, maybe
there's something there,
Speaker:but what about my bread
and butter kind of thing?
Speaker:These are the things that I encourage
us to get a better feel for the
Speaker:incrementality of because
that's more fundamental.
Speaker:And that's where we could basically say,
Speaker:if I'm spending a hundred
million bucks a year on X, Y, z,
Speaker:I can free up $15 million because
it's really not doing anything for me.
Speaker:Or the marginal contribution dollar
generation on that 15 million is
Speaker:so low that either I could not spend it
Speaker:or I could just put it to
demand gen, but nothing,
Speaker:there would be no downside to that in
my business. I think that's kind of step
Speaker:one in a lot of these
situations we're just like,
Speaker:let's get a little bit of humility
around where all of the money's going to
Speaker:acknowledge that we're probably
wasting quite a bit of money there.
Speaker:So then that takes the conversation
away from the fear being wasting money.
Speaker:And then it can be a conversation
around different things.
Speaker:How are we going to build brand? How are
we going to measure it? Yes, I agree.
Speaker:Having more demand makes sense. So
then what are we going to do about it?
Speaker:But it's like let's make it as
inarguable as possible and less of this,
Speaker:I know I'm not wasting money on
performance. I'm running a massive,
Speaker:I'm taking a massive flyer, a massive
risk of wasting money on brand.
Speaker:That's a fundamentally flawed
premise that I think we need to get
Speaker:alignment on first before we then talk
about what the ideal split should be.
Speaker:So it's kind of like those
two things, it should be more,
Speaker:and then we're already wasting way
more money on our bottom funnel demand
Speaker:capture kind of stuff.
Speaker:So let's acknowledge those things and
then I think we can have productive
Speaker:conversations going forward.
Speaker:Yeah, it is really a great point.
And I think that first piece,
Speaker:we've got to key in on whatever
you're doing now to build your
Speaker:brand to drive demand rather
than just to capture it.
Speaker:You got to start testing
doing more of it. And yes,
Speaker:we would love to get to a point with
our marketing where we've got 0% waste,
Speaker:probably never going to happen. Nope.
And it's certainly not happening now,
Speaker:even if you think you're measuring all
of your marketing the way that you should
Speaker:be. And so I really do credit
house, I'm glad you brought them up.
Speaker:I'm a big YouTube guy,
Speaker:and so they've done a lot for us where
this huge YouTube mentality test and
Speaker:showed that man, you look at
YouTube performance and platform,
Speaker:the actual incremental impact is probably
almost three and a half times that.
Speaker:And so really showing, hey,
the way you're measuring it,
Speaker:what you should be thinking about
is this driving a creative growth or
Speaker:incremental growth or growth
I wouldn't have already had.
Speaker:And there there's some challenges there,
but I love the way you frame that.
Speaker:And I would be curious,
Speaker:how do you look at maybe some of
those initial tests or initial looks
Speaker:at how do we understand how
incremental this activity is?
Speaker:Because there are some tools out there,
Speaker:some of them are really quite expensive
and house is probably in that bucket for
Speaker:a lot of brands. How do you start to test
incrementality? What did you guys do?
Speaker:What do you recommend that people.
Speaker:Do? Great question. And the thing
about the YouTube findings with House,
Speaker:what we're seeing with Marathon,
Speaker:which is just effectively just trying
to measure the longer term stuff,
Speaker:is that it's even more pronounced.
Speaker:So I think houses helpers understand
the short-term impact of YouTube and a
Speaker:variety of tactics on
YouTube, which is strong,
Speaker:stronger than chosen platform.
Speaker:But then the longer term impact we're
also seeing is also pretty massive.
Speaker:So it's like there's generally
people are sleeping on YouTube,
Speaker:I guess is my point, both from the
short and the long-term perspective.
Speaker:And it backs out to a rational
first principles perspective.
Speaker:You're at the end of the day,
Speaker:seconds of focused
attention is the thing that,
Speaker:and so that's why TV has
been a thing for so long.
Speaker:Like the switching costs.
Speaker:Really odd, built some of the best,
Speaker:the most iconic brands were often built
on tv. YouTube is our version of tv.
Speaker:Exactly. Right. And with YouTube,
Speaker:I dunno what it's like 50%
of impressions are on a tv,
Speaker:I don't dunno the exact
number, but I think it's.
Speaker:Between 50, 60%. Yeah,
it's growing, growing.
Speaker:So I don't know where else you get
those seconds of focused attention
Speaker:as cleanly and efficiently
and effectively as on YouTube.
Speaker:So anyways, that's one note
that I want to mention,
Speaker:but in terms of how do we start to
think about incrementality testing?
Speaker:So there's the poor person A,
Speaker:let's call it the duct
tape solution thing.
Speaker:I was going to say poor man solution,
but let's call it bubblegum duct tape.
Speaker:And then there's like, let's do it, right?
Speaker:But then broadly philosophy,
philosophy on measurement,
Speaker:and obviously I'm biased because I
started the measurement software company,
Speaker:but this is why,
Speaker:it's because I think brands
under invest in measurement,
Speaker:if we're going to spend in aggregate,
let's call it, I dunno what the number is,
Speaker:1% of our marketing
budgets on measurement,
Speaker:you just say it like that rather than
thinking about it as a fixed cost and I've
Speaker:got a broad software budget.
And then you're like, oh, okay,
Speaker:is that a good no, you think about
it, percentage of marketing spend,
Speaker:do I think I can get more than a
1% improvement in the results? From
Speaker:my experience? You're
wasting way more than that,
Speaker:not knowing some of these answers.
Totally. So I highly recommend, yes,
Speaker:use all platform tools, but
then have your MTA tool,
Speaker:have your incrementality
tool, have your MM tool,
Speaker:and then while we're building marathon,
Speaker:your long-term have precise
performance brand stuff too,
Speaker:which was a big missing piece is
why we're trying to take it invest,
Speaker:don't short shrift the
measurement stuff. And even,
Speaker:I know you were on the Marketing
Operators podcast recently,
Speaker:if you think back on one of their older
episodes was when times were maybe a
Speaker:little bit tougher and they were talking
about what do we cut and what do we not
Speaker:cut? And I think Cody from Ridge made
a good point where he was just like,
Speaker:thing you do not cut is marketing
software. You just don't cut that, right?
Speaker:Because that's marketing
measurement software, sorry,
Speaker:because that's the north
star. If you're flying blind,
Speaker:our marketing spend is our
biggest cost in this business.
Speaker:So if it's not guided by anything
that's really, really bad,
Speaker:you can get really upside
down on your economics.
Speaker:So it's like a broad philosophical thing.
Speaker:It's like whatever you're investing in
measurement software now invest more and
Speaker:then obviously use it, prioritize
use of it. You can have
Speaker:an account with name your tool,
and if you don't spend time on it,
Speaker:you're going to waste money. So
essential something like how,
Speaker:if you're wanting to
just try some tests now,
Speaker:first it's a mindset shift outside of
I need to use measurement software.
Speaker:And that's really important. Or
measurement tools, let's call it.
Speaker:If you're not going to, regardless
of how you're going to test,
Speaker:you need to commit to, this is not
going to change my business tonight.
Speaker:This is an evolution in how we operate.
Speaker:So let's think about what each test
for the next 12 months looks like.
Speaker:Let's plan it out and let's commit to it
and let's allocate enough budget to it.
Speaker:And let's just know that
it's more about information
Speaker:gathering,
Speaker:like neutral information gathering
than test if that's a failure or
Speaker:not. And that's a different way to
approach it. So that being number one, but
Speaker:I would start with some
of our core things.
Speaker:If you think about an ad set
where you spend your most dollars,
Speaker:let's pressure test that. Let's cut
that 30%, cut that 40% for a week,
Speaker:see what happens.
Speaker:Post it up hundred
percent geos if you can,
Speaker:and measure those geos if
you're set up to do that.
Speaker:Yes. So then we can talk about
that. So the pulse up and down,
Speaker:just do that to everything
and cycle through that.
Speaker:I mean starting with the
specific strategies that
you're spending the most on at
Speaker:any given time.
Speaker:Because the other thing
is the result from a may
Speaker:test doesn't necessarily apply.
Speaker:Next May might not even apply to December.
Speaker:These are moment in time tests
kind of thing, which is fine.
Speaker:That doesn't make it bad.
Speaker:It's just like we tried that two
years ago and it didn't work,
Speaker:so we're not going to try it ever again.
Speaker:We don't want that stuff to
happen because things change.
Speaker:Economics change auctions
change, ad products change,
Speaker:our brand changes, our creative
changes, but just cycle through,
Speaker:if I'm going to test and just work down
from the things that I'm spending the
Speaker:most on, pulse up, pulse down is a great
way to do it. True point on holdouts.
Speaker:Holdouts are great.
Speaker:We've built the long-term brand
version of it at Marathon House,
Speaker:measured name your tool.
They've got amazing tools.
Speaker:Some people run them
themselves and that's okay,
Speaker:but I caution because you can do it wrong.
Speaker:And then if you don't understand the level
of statist complic significance or if
Speaker:you don't, all of these, it's,
it's a statistical exploration.
Speaker:It's less like I tested Texas
and Texas grew faster than rest
Speaker:of country. It's like, no,
Speaker:Because Texas behaves different from
rest of country for a of reasons.
Speaker:It's got a different seasonality curve.
Speaker:You went into that month
with different numbers,
Speaker:and so it's like you can very easily
Speaker:be steered in the wrong way. And
I've made this mistake personally,
Speaker:I would just like, let's just
Texas, California, New York,
Speaker:let's just do it there.
Boom. That's our test.
Speaker:I'd say.
Speaker:I dunno. I dunno if that's better
than nothing, to be honest.
Speaker:To the extent you can get
down to a DMA level And do
Speaker:it in that way or even a zip level, I
think that's better. But regardless,
Speaker:you got to spend more and you got to
run it for longer generally. I mean,
Speaker:I think people want
answers today, tomorrow,
Speaker:and you want to spend
as little as possible.
Speaker:And that's why I think these tools are
clear on how confident are we in these
Speaker:solutions or what is the variability of
potential outcomes Here I'm showing you
Speaker:some number, but that's not
the number. That's not as,
Speaker:that's not the specific,
Speaker:there's a range of outcomes and I
would always just caution double
Speaker:click on what that number is, what the
range of outcomes is, what the error,
Speaker:are you happy with this outcome? Are we
happy with this outcome kind of thing.
Speaker:It could be something like that,
especially if we cut the test off earlier,
Speaker:whatever. So the way you set this up,
Speaker:the way you run the test,
Speaker:just counter the short-termism that
we as humans are fully laden with
Speaker:and know that it's just a systematic
thing. You got to give it enough time,
Speaker:you got to run it
correctly. But the pulse up,
Speaker:pulse down and just understand, okay,
Speaker:I added a marginal 20%, what did I get?
Speaker:And do that over and over and over and
over because you're always going to have
Speaker:variables.
Speaker:You're going to have a good product launch
on the next week and you're going to
Speaker:have a bad product launch on next week.
Speaker:Totally.
Speaker:Email toss. So that's why you got
to do it multiple times as well.
Speaker:It's not just a one and
done thing. It's broadly,
Speaker:I'm committed to learning
this set of things this year.
Speaker:I'm not going to boil the ocean. Because
you look back and you're just like,
Speaker:even if you think about running
a test that maybe is a little bit
Speaker:longer, you're like, oh my
God, that's an eternity.
Speaker:But then it's like it takes you
10 to 15 years to get to any
Speaker:real material scale and profit
generation anyway. So you're like,
Speaker:you're not going to spend a month testing
what could be something that changes
Speaker:your changes the way you spend
30% of your marketing. Again,
Speaker:I would've felt this exact thing
and I was the one who was like,
Speaker:no, we can't test that stuff. Just we
got to go. We got to go. We got to go.
Speaker:We got to go. So I'm the guilty guy
here. So I've felt all of these things,
Speaker:but those are just some thoughts
as it relates to how to do tests.
Speaker:Yeah, man, it's so valuable
and so much to unpack there.
Speaker:I want to talk a little bit
about your measurement stack,
Speaker:and then I want to really dive into
what marathon data is measuring,
Speaker:how that fits into the overall stack.
Speaker:But I'll give a quick analogy
here that I think will help.
Speaker:And you talk about how running one test
is silly. You had to run multiple tests.
Speaker:So there's the heart issues in my
family, at least with a few people,
Speaker:and it's like I'm diving
into some of this.
Speaker:And so you can measure your
resting heart rate. In my heart,
Speaker:resting your heart is really good.
Speaker:You can then measure heart
variability and how that speaks to the
Speaker:health of your heart.
Speaker:You can also then do lipid panels
and see what's my cholesterol,
Speaker:but not just cholesterol,
Speaker:but there's 20 ways to measure
cholesterol. And then it's like, well,
Speaker:I need to measure that
probably three or four,
Speaker:five times throughout the
year because you measure once,
Speaker:it could be based on some other
factors. And so then you're like, well,
Speaker:maybe I need to do a calcium
check and all of these things,
Speaker:but if you want to say,
I want be healthier,
Speaker:or I want to build for the
longterm with my health,
Speaker:you're going to have to
measure all of those things,
Speaker:understand what they're measuring,
understanding then based on the reading,
Speaker:what do you do with that? And
then measure on an ongoing basis,
Speaker:which kind of feels a little bit
overwhelming, but it's just the way it is.
Speaker:And I feel like it's the
same with marketing. We can't
run one test and be like,
Speaker:great, we know what to do
forever now with our marketing,
Speaker:or this is the salvation for our
brand. We have MTA now multi,
Speaker:multi touch attribution. Everything
is solved. It's never the case, right?
Speaker:It's like we've got to stack these things.
Speaker:We have to understand what they're
measuring, what that's telling us,
Speaker:what we expect, and then what do we
do with it? And so talk about that.
Speaker:What do you believe is your perfect
marketing measurement stack?
Speaker:And then let's go deep on
Marathon data.
Speaker:For sure, for sure. Yeah.
So I mean, I think broadly,
Speaker:before you even start talking
about marketing measurement stack,
Speaker:there's a bit of these things are true
Speaker:and you can't really argue them.
Speaker:And maybe this applies to the whole
conversation, but where it's just
Speaker:most likely if you're running into a
little bit of this with I'm spending more,
Speaker:getting less or CACs up or
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker:You've just reached that stage where
it's like, maybe we got to change.
Speaker:I think we tend to jump to like, oh,
it's like conversion rate optimization,
Speaker:or I need more creative diversity or blah,
blah, blah, blah, blah. But I'm like,
Speaker:those are symptoms rather than
the cost. Part of it is like,
Speaker:let's get to the cause and
let's understand that most
Speaker:likely it's that we've just
eaten through most of the
Speaker:people who know about us, care
about us or thinking about us.
Speaker:That's very rational. And I think
we need alignment on that first.
Speaker:Great. Now let's talk about measurement
stack, and that's more specific,
Speaker:but I do think that there's a
nice multi-touch attribution tool.
Speaker:Awesome.
Speaker:A lot of people don't know that
GA has that. It does. It does.
Speaker:So you can get it in a variety
of different places and then some
Speaker:kind of experimentation
platform to just test something.
Speaker:And so we all, I think,
Speaker:know the great vendors there some
kind of statistical analysis tool like
Speaker:an mm M of sorts,
Speaker:an MM where you could just put a lot
of data in and get an understanding
Speaker:of what's doing what, and it's not
susceptible to the cookie apocalypse,
Speaker:to the iOS 14, to the blah, blah,
blah. It's just stats, right?
Speaker:So that's what I would view as just,
Speaker:and I think all of the ad platforms
put out papers where they talk about,
Speaker:that's the trinity of measurement,
right? It's MTA, it's testing,
Speaker:it's MM, M, all of that
together, you triangulate.
Speaker:And then in my strong opinion,
Speaker:we need to understand how we're building
the long-term compounding value.
Speaker:How are we going to over time make sure
we get more and more of our revenue
Speaker:coming from people searching for our
brand coming direct to our site where it's
Speaker:not fighting in that auction all
day, every day to get that click.
Speaker:And so I think that's maybe
the segue to marathon,
Speaker:but definitely all of them.
Speaker:And I recommend that if
you're spending, I don't know,
Speaker:more than a million bucks a year or
something like that on marketing.
Speaker:So it's actively every brand to
have a full measurement stack.
Speaker:Got to have it.
Speaker:And I think that that's one of the flaws
that people are coming to understand is
Speaker:MTA alone won't solve it, right?
Speaker:It's good to see click data
and clickstream data and
what are people doing after
Speaker:they see an ad? It gives you some insight,
Speaker:but you need that m that shows correlation
when spend goes up on TV or YouTube,
Speaker:what happens to sales if there's no
correlation, there's no causation,
Speaker:but then you got to run experiments to
see, okay, but is there causation? Is it,
Speaker:is there causation? So all
those things work together.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Let's.
Speaker:Talk about, I think
the other thing though,
Speaker:the one point that I think might be
helpful, and I know we're short on time,
Speaker:but I think this might be helpful, is
Speaker:the MTA or even the
end platforms, we think
Speaker:they know all of the clicks and
they know all of the purchases,
Speaker:and that's deterministic.
Speaker:Whereas models are probabilistic
and therefore less trustworthy.
Speaker:The reality is 85% of people are
opting out of tracking on iPhones.
Speaker:A lot of our.
Speaker:IPhone users, you hover over
the little I in ads manager,
Speaker:when you're looking at data and
it says, this data is modeled.
Speaker:So even the click based roas,
Speaker:which we think is the highest we
switched to from seven day click,
Speaker:one day view down to one day click
because we're like, we're accountable.
Speaker:And then the reality is that the vast
majority of this data is modeled because
Speaker:there's so much data loss. So
Speaker:there are often questions around, okay,
Speaker:I view what's in platform
as capital T truth, right?
Speaker:Because you've got all of the
clicks, you know what everyone did.
Speaker:It's unfortunately bullshit.
Speaker:And so I think the more we
realize that the flaw of this,
Speaker:just from that perspective,
Speaker:not in terms of all of the other negative
implications that it has on us in
Speaker:terms of optimizing just for short term
and just getting into this doom spiral,
Speaker:but of the fact that that data is modeled,
heavily modeled, I dunno how much,
Speaker:I don't know the specifics, but just
hover over the little eye in Mads manager,
Speaker:I'll tell you. And then look at the data.
Speaker:The vast majority of people are opting
out of being tracked on their phones,
Speaker:and I don't know what the number is,
Speaker:but 70 to 80% of sessions
are on mobile for many of our
Speaker:brands, for many of our DC context, I
don't know what the number is for Amazon,
Speaker:but it's like it's all modeled
and that's okay. It's okay.
Speaker:So let's not poo poo statistical analysis.
Speaker:Let's not poo P all of this stuff that
we tend to poo because all of it's
Speaker:modeled.
Speaker:Great point, great point. Love that.
Speaker:And it's only going to
become more and more true.
Speaker:There's going to be less and less clarity.
Speaker:There's going to be more and more
privacy. That's kind of part of this,
Speaker:but we can then still
triangulate and understand, okay,
Speaker:when we're doing these things,
Speaker:it leads to this kind of business
outcome that I'm looking for.
Speaker:And so walk through the, and I'm fine
on time actually just to clarify that,
Speaker:but what's the thesis
behind marathon data?
Speaker:What problem are you solving? And
talk to us about how that works.
Speaker:Totally. Well,
Speaker:it starts with this realization that
brand is important. Brand is the moat.
Speaker:Brand is the thing that protects our
ability to generate profits over time.
Speaker:Protects us from competition,
Speaker:protects us from someone who's willing
to come in and try to steal my customers
Speaker:because they can spend
twice as much as I can.
Speaker:Or some brand from name
your country who just
Speaker:straight up copies my product and
tries to sell it for half price,
Speaker:which has happened to I think many of
the listeners of this podcast ourselves
Speaker:included. What then do we have?
Speaker:How then do we continue to have people
come to our site and pay twice as much
Speaker:for our thing, you know what I mean?
Speaker:Or keep coming to us and
not need to only buy on a
Speaker:discount or whatever, selling our souls,
Speaker:that being important and that being
something that tends to happen to every
Speaker:brand as they reach some level of success.
I don't know what the annual revenue
Speaker:is, but this general idea
that brand is important,
Speaker:brand is ultimately the most important
thing for many of us consumer brands,
Speaker:unless we have some patent,
Speaker:some other IP brand ends up
being that IP if we're just
Speaker:selling consumer goods.
So, okay, that being said,
Speaker:it's been really hard to measure
that so that we can connect
Speaker:that to actual revenue
growth. Historically,
Speaker:the way it's historically been done
is surveys, brand tracker surveys.
Speaker:Let's get our brand awareness. Number
two, problems with that, right?
Speaker:Is that you've got this
intermediary metric. First of all,
Speaker:it took three months to get that
metric. So you're already like, okay,
Speaker:what is this? Okay, my brand
awareness went up five points,
Speaker:but what period of time are we even
looking at? I don't even remember.
Speaker:I'm thinking about Black Friday, cyber
Monday, right? So what? There are two,
Speaker:so whats that are unanswered? What
did I do to get that? And then what's,
Speaker:how much more money am I
making because of that?
Speaker:So we're intending to kind
of get out of surveys,
Speaker:focus on actions like
you're mentioning, right?
Speaker:Everything I do should drive an
action. Yes, love. So behaviors,
Speaker:what people do rather
than what people say.
Speaker:There's a crap ton of that being
generated every day on the internet.
Speaker:So use behavior and then solve
the two. So whats that have been?
Speaker:The pernicious problems with measuring
the impact of brand one is tie it to
Speaker:action as much as you can.
Speaker:Not everything, But as much as you
can tie it to actions you've taken.
Speaker:Give yourself a daily number
that is in the form of dollars,
Speaker:which is solving the second.
Speaker:So which is like how do I
quantify or predict or look
Speaker:back and analyze the
incremental revenue impact
Speaker:of this brand building stuff,
actually make that connection.
Speaker:And so those are the two things
we're trying to do with brand.
Speaker:And so think of us as
Speaker:all of the things I was talking about
on the short term kind of stuff,
Speaker:but for long-term.
Speaker:So our whole focus is not the
clicks, not the short-term purchases,
Speaker:but what's happening over the next
six months and how can we think about
Speaker:building that bank revenue if you'll
that future revenue that I'm going to be
Speaker:building into and
realizing. But then also,
Speaker:how am I driving what we focus on, which
is called resilient baseline revenue.
Speaker:So even as you look at an mm m readout
for instance, over short-term stuff,
Speaker:you'll always get some percentage
of the revenue that wasn't explained
Speaker:necessarily by your short-term
tactics. It was the base sales, right?
Speaker:The sales you would've gotten anyways
is kind of another way to talk about it.
Speaker:The big aha for us was like, yeah,
Speaker:it's fun to look at all the
colors in the chart of the MMM,
Speaker:but what about this base sales?
Speaker:Wouldn't it be cool if that was much
larger If the sales I would've gotten
Speaker:anyways was more?
Speaker:That seems like that's awesome from
the perspective of resilience and risk
Speaker:reduction and better
forecasting and less reliance
Speaker:on third parties that I don't control.
But these all seem like good things.
Speaker:Why do I focus on trying to build that?
Speaker:And we realized there was
nothing out there that does that.
Speaker:So think of us as how do I
build that resilient base,
Speaker:however you want to define it, right?
Speaker:If it's like revenue from
brand search or if it's not as
Speaker:simple, right? You've got
to remove all the spikes.
Speaker:You've got to invest for spend and
seasonality and blah, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker:How do I build that
resilient base of revenue?
Speaker:How do I drive more people to search
for my brand and buy or just memorize my
Speaker:fricking URL I'm coming by?
Speaker:Those are the purchase actions that I
want to drive more of. And that comes from
Speaker:activating the 95% when they become the 5%
Speaker:sure they're going to be more
likely to click on my ads,
Speaker:which will make my
performance more performant.
Speaker:But I also want them to just not
have to go through that thing.
Speaker:Let's play different games.
Speaker:Let's spend our dollars to drive brand
search and revenue from brand search,
Speaker:that kind of stuff. So anyways,
we're trying to, for modern brands,
Speaker:turn this, it's like
incremental future growth.
Speaker:Think about it that way. Less
brand brand's a scary word,
Speaker:but it's an important word and you got
to stand by it because brand matters from
Speaker:a performance marketing mindset mindset.
Speaker:We're just trying to turn incremental
future growth beyond what you would
Speaker:achieve if you were just continuing
to spend in the way you are today.
Speaker:So brand but into performance,
Speaker:into a performance marketing workflow
where I get data today on what I
Speaker:did yesterday so that I can act
and make decisions and basically
Speaker:run a full funnel ad account basically
across YouTube and meta TikTok,
Speaker:whatever.
Speaker:Man, I love that. I 100%
agree brand is moat.
Speaker:At the end of the day, it's what you have.
Speaker:And I think brand shows up in
the ability to charge the right
Speaker:prices. You can protect your profits.
Speaker:It's the ability to continue
to grow and to have people
Speaker:searching for your brand.
I know Mark Pritchard,
Speaker:the marketing director at p and g always
says one of the greatest signs that we
Speaker:look for knowing that a brand
has traction is brand search
Speaker:growing over time. That's
what we need to measure.
Speaker:And I like this idea of resiliency,
Speaker:this baseline revenue is that growing
and that's going to be an indicator of
Speaker:am I doing things right?
Speaker:And I do think there's this sense that
brand is mushy and it's fluffy and you
Speaker:can't measure it and it's
just in the ether or whatever,
Speaker:but that's not really true.
Brand can be measured,
Speaker:you just don't measure it in the same way.
Speaker:And you do kind of need
of a collection of tools.
Speaker:But I think this piece that you're
solving of how do we measure the resilient
Speaker:growth of our brand shows
up with chubby, right?
Speaker:Would you say eight years in a row?
Speaker:Like the top bottom line
growth or whatever. Yeah.
Speaker:Even in the midst of craziness.
Totally. It's important.
Speaker:It's important to have
that resilient growth.
Speaker:And so I guess maybe as we wrap up here,
Speaker:what are some of the insights that pop up?
Speaker:Do you have any examples
of with this data,
Speaker:these are the insights that pop up and
then what we can do with those insights?
Speaker:So some of the data that
has come to the surface,
Speaker:it's actually pretty interesting. So
Speaker:the one point though that I would make
is that sometimes people think about, ah,
Speaker:it seems too good to be true that
you can measure this brand thing in a
Speaker:performance markety ish way
or even measure the impact,
Speaker:the revenue impact of the
brand. The reality is that
Speaker:p and g or Ford or these massive
Speaker:advertisers,
Speaker:they've worked with firms to
build these custom models,
Speaker:they cost millions to
build and to maintain,
Speaker:and they take a really long time to get
all the data in, et cetera, et cetera,
Speaker:which is why we lowly 50,
a hundred million dollars.
Speaker:Brands don't really do this,
Speaker:but they've been doing it for a long time.
Speaker:But they've just been these crazy
complex models that were built by these
Speaker:analytics firms and they
took just a really long time,
Speaker:but it's proven methodology. They've
been measuring this stuff for forever.
Speaker:How else
Speaker:for us modern consumer brand builders
to think that all of the traditional
Speaker:multi-billion dollar brands have just
gotten there because they've been flying
Speaker:blind, they've had no data. I think
we need a little humility ourselves.
Speaker:These are very precise people. Absolutely.
It's expensive to do it that way.
Speaker:So I think the thing that we're doing in.
Speaker:America, not that it's not measurable,
Speaker:it's just not measurable in the way
we're used to. And so makes sense.
Speaker:Not in the way we're used to and then
up until I guess what we're doing is,
Speaker:and not a way that we could afford.
Speaker:Because.
Speaker:It would be very expensive
to build these custom models.
Speaker:So part of the thing that we're
doing is, let's try to generalize it.
Speaker:A lot of the people who built those
super custom models for those big
Speaker:advertisers from these analytics
firms are the ones who were like,
Speaker:this is how I would do it if I
would democratize this for everyone.
Speaker:So when we came together it
was like, oh, this is awesome.
Speaker:Let's figure this out. But some of
the big things that have stood out,
Speaker:one of the things we've
always knocked on is
Speaker:whether or not a follow
or a share is valuable.
Speaker:I think we've all gone through this.
Speaker:Well at least I have this hype
cycle of that's all that matters.
Speaker:It's the worst thing. There's
no value. Maybe it does matter.
Speaker:So the reality though is somewhere in
the middle there's some value of someone
Speaker:taking an action and that is an
action, it's a precursor action.
Speaker:It's a non shopping behavior,
Speaker:but there is a statistical relationship
between people taking those actions and
Speaker:your future revenue. So
if you can find that.
Speaker:So I think that's one of the big things.
Speaker:So we think about then spending
our money not to drive a purchase.
Speaker:So now I'm talking about
non purchase campaigns,
Speaker:which freaks people out
because they're just like,
Speaker:why would I do a subscriber
campaign that is insane?
Speaker:Does it have value, blah, blah, blah
Speaker:to get IG follows, to get, TikTok
follows to get Facebook follows.
Speaker:Can you imagine getting a
Facebook page like that?
Speaker:But the reality is that these sorts
of things are opening up additional
Speaker:reach, lowering the cost per
a thousand accounts reached,
Speaker:reaching different people. Because as
you think about if you're the ad auction,
Speaker:right,
Speaker:you're going to serve media because you're
going to get the highest bid on this
Speaker:set of people.
Speaker:It doesn't make sense to serve media to
these people who haven't shown all these
Speaker:intense signals that they're in
market. So they're not going to do it.
Speaker:So then when you choose
different objectives, yeah,
Speaker:the bid is different because the auction's
different and you're reaching all
Speaker:these people that you
weren't otherwise reaching.
Speaker:And if you use your best creative
creative that our friend Jacque makes or
Speaker:that any of these brands have
made that has earned engagement,
Speaker:talks about who they're what to do,
Speaker:you're doing the brand building thing
in a performance market. You don't only
Speaker:have to do billboards and linear tv,
you can do enough performance market.
Speaker:So we're getting people to take those
actions because that's a lot of the
Speaker:playbook that we used at to do this.
Speaker:It was very much like let's build
our community by distributing
Speaker:content that wouldn't crush
it in a bottom funnel.
Speaker:Performance marketing a set
necessarily wouldn't beat the
Speaker:very product offer urgency sort of thing
that you got to do. Not knocking that.
Speaker:Totally. So then I think the key
things are run media differently,
Speaker:use different objectives and it matters.
It helps, it works kind of thing.
Speaker:And if you want to lower CPMs,
you want to reach more people,
Speaker:those are the unarguable rules.
Speaker:But now we're helping to provide a
little bit more context on how valuable
Speaker:it's so that you can think
about how much to budget,
Speaker:think about what is the split
for me given my cash profile,
Speaker:given what I demand from an incremental
role on a 30 day roll basis,
Speaker:whatever that might be.
So that's kind of what we're finding,
Speaker:but finding that YouTube is
super valuable on a long-term
Speaker:context, pretty meaningfully.
Speaker:But then Facebook as well, I
mean just going out absolutely,
Speaker:whether it be post engagement campaigns
or trying to get Facebook page likes,
Speaker:yes, that action matters,
Speaker:but then it's also the fact that
you're just reaching people you weren't
Speaker:otherwise reaching. And then it's
like, ah, do I have the creative?
Speaker:Everyone has more brand building creative,
Speaker:whether it's amazing and fricking
awesome, different conversation,
Speaker:but everyone's got to start
somewhere. You know what I mean?
Speaker:And so we're helping you
to put numbers to your gut,
Speaker:whereas that putting this piece of content
in front of what people is just good.
Speaker:That's who we are. That's
what we do kind of thing.
Speaker:Now we're just validating
that with numbers. But yeah,
Speaker:I mean to your point, brand
search not a perfect metric. Yes,
Speaker:it's tied to spend. Yes.
If you spend more on dr,
Speaker:you will get more brand
search. That's not the point.
Speaker:The point is that there are other ways
to spend your dollars to more efficiently
Speaker:drive brand search And to more efficiently
then get those clicks to your site
Speaker:and more efficiently have them be high
converting. That's more the point.
Speaker:What we learned at Chubby's is like, yeah,
Speaker:let's spend our money to drive
brand search more efficiently.
Speaker:That's what I want to do. That's
how I want to use the ad platforms.
Speaker:That puts me in a different bucket where
I'm leveraging it to meet my needs.
Speaker:And so we're just trying to help brands.
Speaker:I don't want to say see the light because
that's implying that they're blind or
Speaker:whatever, but just free them up.
Speaker:To.
Speaker:Do the things that'll help to truly
drive their business without seeing this
Speaker:mythical dip. I think that's the other
thing is people transition. They're like,
Speaker:oh, I going to go out of business. Well,
Speaker:I'm transitioning to reality is absolutely
not, but it matters how you do it.
Speaker:It matters how you do it.
Speaker:And so we're trying to help
people through that as well.
Speaker:But those are some just quick takeaways.
Speaker:That's so important and putting data
behind your gut and your intuition.
Speaker:I trust and believe that if I invest
in marketing in this way with a
Speaker:really strong brand message
that compels people,
Speaker:but it's not the buy now save a
hundred percent type of thing.
Speaker:It's like it's a good brand message.
I believe that's going to work.
Speaker:I'm going to trust it, but I'd
sure like some data to back me up.
Speaker:And that's what you guys have
built and what you're doing here,
Speaker:and it just makes sense.
Speaker:We look at this all the time with YouTube
and then there's been such an influx
Speaker:of people coming to MG for us
to help them solve YouTube,
Speaker:which we do all the time. But hey,
Speaker:if we can reach the right audience
maybe for a five or $8 CPM or a
Speaker:$10 CCP M and you're getting a
30 or $40 CPM somewhere else,
Speaker:that's going to have an impact.
Speaker:And if I can drive more branded search,
Speaker:which comes to me at 50 cents or whatever,
Speaker:that's going to be better than driving
$7 clicks and some of these other areas.
Speaker:And so it's understanding some
of those things are powerful,
Speaker:but now you're putting some of the
measurement behind it to see the real
Speaker:business impact of those things.
Speaker:And then just trying to validating
it with straight up well run.
Speaker:Do you hold that incrementality studies
so that when you get those results,
Speaker:yeah, I mean it trains your
MMM or your statistical model,
Speaker:but it also gives you data that you can
take to the CO and CFO and just be like,
Speaker:because the tough thing
that always happens,
Speaker:and you probably deal with this with
your clients, it's like, oh crap,
Speaker:October soft or September was rough.
Speaker:You.
Speaker:Got to cut all that stuff,
right? Only bottom funnel.
Speaker:And then when you don't have
Speaker:any kind of causal holdout data,
there's no way for you to say,
Speaker:we would be doing worse if we weren't
doing this brand building stuff.
Speaker:There's no way to say that. But
that's true Or it's potentially true.
Speaker:And if you're running these
experiments constantly,
Speaker:if you have this culture
of experimentation, you can
actually say that, right?
Speaker:Here's the data.
Speaker:Look at these geos doing way worse where
we're not doing this demand gen stuff
Speaker:or I don't want to say demand
creating net new demand for our brand,
Speaker:let's call it. And so that's
what we really encourage.
Speaker:Anyone who's doing any kind of stuff
that doesn't necessarily optimize for
Speaker:driving that short-term today
purchase is just run experiments
Speaker:so that you can have that
conversation where it's just like, no,
Speaker:this is the whole goal.
Speaker:We want to make more money than we would
had we just been sticking to bottom
Speaker:funnel demand capture. That's the goal.
Speaker:More profit dollars sustainably
over many, many years.
Speaker:We're all aligned on
that front, right? Yes.
Speaker:So if we have some numbers
in this missing fluffy
Speaker:piece, that is the compounder,
right? That's the end of the day.
Speaker:It's the compounder. It's the compounder.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:The bottom funnel land capture.
Speaker:It is the thing that cash
is in on the compounding.
Speaker:But if you don't have a compounding,
right, I mean, then we're in trouble.
Speaker:So we want to solve that.
Speaker:In trouble. Man, it's so good. So good.
I could keep going on this all day.
Speaker:I absolutely love this stuff.
Speaker:But we do need to wrap up and we'll have
to do another round in the future and
Speaker:hopefully not wait a couple years,
but who is marathon data for?
Speaker:What's your ICP or your ideal client
profile and how can people find out more?
Speaker:Sure. So ICP, it's like,
Speaker:let's call 'em generally
modern consumer brands who
Speaker:maybe reached a point
where they're just like,
Speaker:I think part of the reason maybe why we're
not seeing the results we want to see
Speaker:is because maybe we haven't been
able to invest in this brand stuff,
Speaker:or
I know brand is important,
Speaker:but I can't figure out how to
invest in it or measure it.
Speaker:So there's that little bit
of pain or I'm crushing it,
Speaker:but I don't know what I'm doing
that's helping my pressure.
Speaker:What should I be doubling down
on? What should I be cutting?
Speaker:Everything's seemingly working? What's,
Speaker:there's those things You're generally
spending a lot of money on meta, Google,
Speaker:YouTube, TikTok, you've
got active socials,
Speaker:you're trying to expand multichannel,
right? You start a D two C,
Speaker:now you're on Amazon, now you're
in Walmart or Nordstrom or whoever,
Speaker:and you don't have to
be all of that stuff.
Speaker:But those are generally the folks that
we work with may need to be around for
Speaker:three, four years to have enough
history. So all that stuff,
Speaker:but pretty much any consumer brand.
Speaker:Love it. Love it. And then
how can they find out more?
Speaker:Where can they get a demo? How can
they dive in? That sort of thing.
Speaker:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker:So you can just slide
into my dms on LinkedIn,
Speaker:just search Preston Ruther with shorts
in the middle of the first and last name.
Speaker:Or you can go to marathon data co com or
Speaker:Marathon Taco. Someone told me
that I think is a way better.
Speaker:Way to taco marathon taco. That's
perfect. You'll never forget that.
Speaker:But yeah, hit me up on LinkedIn,
Speaker:read some of the stuff that kind of
helps articulate these Yammer rings
Speaker:on the internet, but.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yep. Love it, man. Really appreciate
the time. I'll double down on this.
Speaker:You're still one of the best follows
on LinkedIn out there if you're in the
Speaker:marketing and brand building
and consumer product building.
Speaker:And if you're in marketing, you got
to follow precedent on LinkedIn.
Speaker:So just do that.
Speaker:Checkout marathon data co.com or
Speaker:the taco. I like that even better. And
so Preston, thanks man. Ton of fun.
Speaker:Thank you Brett, as always,
and always great to catch up.
Speaker:Pleasure dude. Love what you're
doing and thanks for the opportunity.
Speaker:Hope this is helpful for the audience.
Speaker:A hundred percent. And as
always, thank you for tuning in.
Speaker:We'd love to hear from you. What would
you like to hear more of on the show?
Speaker:If you found this episode helpful and
you think it'd be helpful for someone
Speaker:else, please share it. And with that,
until next time, thank you for listening.
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