Somewhere out in the middle of the Pacific right now, the ocean is doing something it hasn't done in almost 150 years, and if you keep a feeder in your backyard, that's about to matter more than you'd think. This fall NOAA has put the odds at over 90% that we're headed into a very strong El Nino by winter, with some scientists reaching back to 1877 for a comparable event. I wanted to break down what El Nino actually is in plain terms, and then get into the part I really care about: what a warm, dry winter like this one tends to do to the birds right outside your window. What El Nino actually is El Nino isn't rare or exotic, it's just what happens when the trade winds that normally push warm Pacific water toward Asia and Australia break down or reverse. That warm water piles up in the central and eastern Pacific instead, heats the ocean surface, and that heat rises into the atmosphere and reshapes weather patterns worldwide. It shows up every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to twelve months, you've almost certainly lived through several without ever learning the name. How big is this one, really Scientists measure El Nino by how far ocean temperatures rise above the long term average in a specific patch of the Pacific, half a degree is a weak event, two full degrees is a "super" El Nino. This winter's forecasts are running past that, which is why the 1877 comparison keeps coming up. Our measurement tools are far better now than they were 150 years ago, so a clean comparison is tricky, and our food systems (drought resistant seed, better irrigation) are much more resilient than they were back then too. What a warm, dry winter means for Northwoods birds Birds don't respond to the average temperature on a chart, they respond to food, water, and ice. When a winter runs warmer and drier than normal, all three of those shift, and you start seeing behavior that looks unusual but has a very logical cause behind it. Three groups of birds, three different reasons to watch Waterfowl like ducks and geese stay put longer because the lakes take longer to freeze. Winter finches, redpolls, siskins, crossbills, grosbeaks, and boreal sparrows, may arrive earlier than usual if a poor boreal seed crop up in Canada pushes them south ahead of schedule. And robins and bluebirds may not migrate as far at all, since bare, snow free ground means they can still find fruit and insects without traveling. What to actually watch for this winter Every El Nino has its own personality, the 2015 to 2016 event, for example, didn't bring Southern California the wet winter everyone expected. So instead of predicting exactly what will happen, I'm suggesting you become an outdoor naturalist this winter: keep your feeders up longer than usual, keep water available (I just added a second birdbath), and start keeping simple records, are the ducks still on the pond in December, is it a big finch year, are the robins sticking around. None of this is guaranteed, and that's really the point. El Nino gives you the odds, but your own backyard gives you the actual story. If you notice something unusual at your feeders this winter, I'd genuinely love to hear about it. 00:00 Intro, the Pacific is warming like it hasn't in 150 years 01:32 What El Nino actually is, in plain terms 03:00 How strong could this El Nino get, the 1877 comparison 05:29 Why birds respond to conditions, not the average winter 07:05 Ducks and geese staying later as freeze up is delayed 07:56 Winter finches arriving early 09:24 Robins and bluebirds may not migrate as far this year 11:24 Every El Nino has its own personality 12:24 What to watch for and how to keep your own backyard records 13:22 Wrap up and how to reach Jill [email protected] jillfromthenorthwoods.com
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By choosing to watch this video or listen to this podcast, you acknowledge that you are doing so of your own free will. The content shared here reflects personal experiences and opinions and is intended for informational and educational purposes only. I am not a licensed biologist, ecologist, or wildlife professional. Any nature observations, identifications, or suggestions offered should not be considered a substitute for professional scientific or environmental guidance. Always follow local regulations when observing or interacting with wildlife and natural spaces. You are solely responsible for any decisions or actions you take based on this content.
