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Montgomery's $8M Question: Dead Cap Math the Media Won't Tell You - EP 019
Episode 1914th January 2026 • Lions Grey Manes • Lions Grey Manes
00:00:00 01:05:02

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he David Montgomery situation isn't what the hot-take crowd wants you to believe.

When Brad Holmes gave his cryptic answer about Monty's future at the January 8th press conference, Lions media immediately declared him gone. But the we don't deal in knee-jerk reactions - we dissect the numbers, the cap implications, and the strategic realities that casual fans overlook.

In this episode, we break down the actual financial impact of trading or cutting Montgomery (spoiler: $4.8M in dead cap for $1.3M net savings), analyze the replacement cost matrix that makes moving on nearly impossible, and explain why a 29-year-old power back with a young family and championship aspirations has every reason to run it back in Detroit for 2025.

We'll decode Holmes' carefully worded response, examine the three realistic scenarios (Monty-initiated departure, Lions-initiated pay cut, or blockbuster trade offer), and reveal why Sonic and Knuckles are far more likely to share the backfield again than the narrative suggests.

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Lions Grey Manes is produced by Chris Stone at https://CastAhead.net

Transcripts

[0:02] Today, we're breaking down the David Montgomery situation with actual cap numbers the media won't touch. Then we're launching our brand new segment, the Gray Maines Hall of the Underrated with a legend who deserves far more recognition. Let's get into it. Forward down the field.

[0:23] All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Lions Gray Maines. My name is Chris Stone. I'm at castahead.net and the other gentleman on your screen and in your ear balls on your audio podcast, Dan Keener, DK, DBC, Dr. Brent Kreider. Welcome to the show today, fellas. I know it's the off season. Playoffs are going. We're not a part of it, but man, the Lions stuff that's happening in the back rooms and all the stuff that's happening in Allen Park right now, pretty interesting. right? Oh, yeah. Plenty to talk about. We are part of, we are part of the playoffs. I'm out there talking smack with these bears fans today. Cause you know, they're just running their day of miles out there. Oh, you know, we've got, we, I think it was Kyle Brant that started it, you know? Oh, well, you know, all, all, all Ben Johnson does is beat the Packers. I'm like, you know who he didn't beat? That would be us. Thanks for stopping.

[1:30] It touched a nerve with the Bears fans, man. They get a little pissy about it. There's a lot of coping and seething going on and a lot of, I enjoy your vacation and Cancun. I'm like, I'd love being Cancun, man. Ohio sucks right now. It's very dreary. So, you know, whatever. Might have been a little too soon for those in Chicago, right, Brent? Well, they're still playing.

[1:56] Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Here's a live look, ladies and gentlemen, here. Mike McDaniel. No, they are letting him in. In fact, we have a live look at Allen Park. Here's Mike McDaniel. They're not allowing him out, ladies and gentlemen, of Allen Park. Insane asylum. Yeah, just go ahead and book it, Mike McDaniel. Can you imagine Mike McDaniel on the sideline with Dan Campbell? Um, yeah, Amy, I just, I mean, that would just like, especially after like some incredible wild play for, for a touchdown where Jameer Gibbs is, you know, pitches it over to Oman Ross St. Brown and he flips it through his legs and they score a touchdown. Um, and then you just kind of go to the sidelines and there's MCDC and Mike McDaniels. And then, you know, I don't know what he does. You know, maybe he takes my shirt off like Ben Johnson does. I don't know. Or rip his pants like this photo, um, uh, man. And Chippendale have to go.

[2:57] Right, right. Forget the Packers. I think that's what he said, right? Wanda Rich, thanks for joining us as always. Folks, the chat is open. Wanda Rich has taken full advantage of the chat. We've got a lot to cover tonight regarding the David Montgomery situation. We're excited to see you as well, Wanda. Thanks as always for joining us. So let's get into it guys because i know there's a lot to talk about dan uh outstanding work um for putting together um the written word because you know we get all of we get all excited because we get on the screen with our microphones and our cameras and we do podcasting and all this stuff but ladies and gentlemen we do have a website it's called thegraymanes.com and dan put together an outstanding piece here on where we stand right now with david montgomery there's a lot of stuff going on out there in the interwebs, Dan, about David Montgomery. Is he staying? Is he going? So let's first kind of start and break down this piece and Brent, jump in when you can fit in on this. I think it starts right here with.

[4:06] Brad Holmes and the quote. And I think that's what a lot of people are sort of reading into with that quote. And, um, you know, that Dan, let's start with that quote. What did you hear in that answer from that press press conference that the hot take crowd maybe missed? It's an interesting response. I mean, you know, it's typical Brad Holmes. He doesn't really say anything by saying a lot, you know, but it, the things I picked up on here, it feels like this, you know, and this obviously has been alluded to by Montgomery himself, you know, he went out and had a couple cryptic posts on social media that people were interpreting. And then he, you know, Brad was asked at his end of season presser, basically, do you expect Dave Montgomery to be here next year? And he gave about a one minute answer on it, kind of rambling. But basically what I took from it is the Lions love Montgomery. They want him here. It does not appear. And again, I'm using this loosely because we don't have insight to what's going on. But it appears it was a if there's a change and Montgomery is somehow either cut or traded or whichever, it seems to be initiated from Montgomery's side. And it appears to possibly be related to playing time, which I find bizarre.

[5:33] You know, the guy's going to be making a lot of money on his current contract unless he's asked to renegotiate. But really, in reality, his numbers were down, but they weren't down that far. But I think Brent brought up a great point a few shows ago. You know, it was really, it wasn't his overall use. It was when he was being used. in last year. He was the starter, you know, he trotted out on the field that he ran the first series and then Gibbs came in. Well, bro, you're 29 years old, 28 years old, almost 29. Gibbs is a dynamic running back. He can hit the home run every single time he has surpassed you in the eyes of our running back coach and our offensive coordinator and our head coach. He has surpassed Montgomery as being the guy that needs to be on the field to give the Lions the best chance to win. And, you know, the other thing is that we really didn't have the opportunity this year to use Montgomery as a closer. And I think he relishes that role. I think he relishes coming in and just hounding the rock into these guys in the fourth quarter and closing that game out. We just did not have enough opportunities this year to do that. You know, we were playing from behind so much in the year, you know, and even with the struggles with the old line, he was still doing okay. But when games, when he struggled, Gibbs also struggled. We, we struggled mightily. So it didn't matter who was running the ball.

t of operate this thing since:

[8:06] When Dan first brought up, you know, the quote from the press conference, the things that jumped out to me were, you know, he may not be here next year. Excuse me. And he pointed out, he said, I hope that's not the case. I really want David Montgomery to be here. And he reemphasized again that he wants him, Dan and him want him there. So you guys all know this. I am a big fan of David Montgomery. I actually wish they had sort of kept the model that they had last year. And we all know Jameer Gibbs is a special talent. But if we had kept the same model, I don't think we would even be having this conversation.

[8:49] It was rare. If we went back and broke down all the film, it was rare that Jameer Gibbs broke long runs in the first series of any game. We often struggled on first series. to find our footing. And so the bottom line for me was, I questioned Johnny Morton's use of him up until the point where Dan took over. And then I just think, you know, at that point, you can't go back and say, okay, we're going to switch it up and have Monty start and Gibbs come off the bench. I mean, you can't take a superstar like Gibbs off the field once you make the decision to put him on the field in that role, especially for a young guy, right? Very proud. You know, all these folks are proud. And I think that may be part of this here is, you know, Monty has got his ego a little bit hurt.

[9:37] His use wasn't what he thought it should be. And frankly, I tend to agree that he could have probably had a much bigger impact had they used him in the manner that they used him last year. And we were the third or fourth best offense in the history of the NFL. So there's all these different factors that go into it where Monty posted the picture ultimately of his shoulder pads, almost like a farewell tour kind of picture is the way I took it. And then, you know, who knows what's happening behind the scenes, because I don't think Monty, everything I've watched, a lot of videos about him, his personal life. He was at Iowa State a game a few weeks back when the Lions had a bye. Well, he's just a stand up guy. And let's be honest. Very, very respectable person. It's a great story. Came from a rough upbringing and he wants to bring you back to young people and trying to be a mentor, an example of how to get out of a bad situation. If he wants to hold out, then that's fine, but he's just hurting himself. And I think he probably had a very personal conversation with Brad and Campbell, and that conversation's probably the reason why I'm not even addressing this press conference. You are at the end of your career. You were set to make $6 million next year. We could have said, shut up. He's signed. He's signed, right? Play your role. Guess what? This is the first year since you've been a Lion you played in all the games, because you know why?

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