Shownotes
I have come to a turning point in the way I invest in crypto. After eight years in crypto I have decided that I need to make some changes. Let's discuss.
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I can be reached by email at mcintosh@genwealthcrypto.com and on twitter at @McIntoshFinTech. My mastodon handle is @mcintosh@podcastindex.social. Looking forward to hearing from you!
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Music Credits
Protofunk by Kevin MacLeod
Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/4247-protofunk
License: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Ethernight Club by Kevin MacLeod
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/7612-ethernight-club
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://incompetech.com
Transcripts
Hey everyone!
Speaker:No one on this podcast is a financial advisor.
Speaker:All information presented on this podcast is for informational purposes only.
Speaker:Now that we have that stuff out of the way, let's jump on in.
Speaker:Welcome to the Generational Wealth of Cryptocurrency podcast.
Speaker:I am your host, MacIntosh, and today we're going to talk about my existential crisis.
Speaker:So before we jump into that, I would like to pause for just a minute to acknowledge
Speaker:that this is the 50th episode of the Generational Wealth podcast.
Speaker:It has been a ride.
Speaker:Been going since, I believe, since August.
Speaker:I think we recorded our first episode back in August of last year.
Speaker:Only we were doing one episode a week.
Speaker:After a while, I did raise that up to two that we're currently doing now.
Speaker:I try to keep it on a schedule, but to be honest, I'm not really very good at that.
Speaker:So two episodes a week, all the news, discussion, commentary, whatever you want to make of that.
Speaker:And we're here at 50 episodes.
Speaker:So we will blow our party favor, and we will celebrate a little bit.
Speaker:But let's talk about my existential crisis.
Speaker:For those who don't know, an existential crisis is, by definition, the group of feelings and
Speaker:questions that we have that deal with the meaning and purpose of our life.
Speaker:So this is really deep.
Speaker:These questions aren't easy to find answers to, and this can leave us feeling stuck.
Speaker:Now, really, by definition, this is not an existential crisis, and maybe that's a little
Speaker:bit of a clickbait title.
Speaker:I try not to do those, but I have been, I should say, conflicted about crypto, about
Speaker:what we talk about here on this podcast.
Speaker:And I'm going to discuss that on this episode, because as I alluded to a few episodes earlier,
Speaker:I've been thinking about making some changes.
Speaker:I'm going to walk through this.
Speaker:I'm going to talk to you about where I'm at and where I was, where I'm at, and where we
Speaker:are going.
Speaker:What do I know?
Speaker:Last episode, we talked about the algo token.
Speaker:We discussed, one of the things that I talked about was Anthony Scaramucci, who is a famous
Speaker:investor.
Speaker:He'd taken a large position in Algram.
Speaker:And one of the things that was in the article that I was reading, he said, I am certain
Speaker:that blockchain is the most disruptive innovation since the internet.
Speaker:That's a quote from the article.
Speaker:It was linked to in the last episode.
Speaker:Now, I have believed that for a long time.
Speaker:I'm glad to hear that he's saying that as well, but that's not something new for me.
Speaker:I have believed that for a long time, certainly since basically the time that I became involved
Speaker:in blockchain, which was in 2014.
Speaker:Secondly, a lot of the content on YouTube and other sources of information such as Twitter
Speaker:is distorted.
Speaker:It's distorted by money, by pride, and by arrogance.
Speaker:Well, and by ignorance.
Speaker:I actually had pride and ignorance.
Speaker:I threw in arrogance on the fly, so welcome.
Speaker:It fits really well in there.
Speaker:And we've discussed this in the past.
Speaker:So as an example, just recently, the last yesterday or today, I was listening to several
Speaker:different YouTube channels.
Speaker:I have several that I listen to on a regular basis.
Speaker:And so I was, at the time, listening to one.
Speaker:It really is one of the most popular YouTube channels today, and I'm not going to bring
Speaker:up their name.
Speaker:That's not the point.
Speaker:I'm not trying to slander them, but they were talking about Solana.
Speaker:Solana, as we have discussed on this podcast, has a long history of failures.
Speaker:Now, I actually found a link on the Solana website to basically a listing of all of their
Speaker:issues, and I'm going to include that in the notes today, including basic network failures
Speaker:multiple times, meaning everything gets shut down just like nothing is going on, and yet
Speaker:it was the darling of their discussion.
Speaker:They all thought it was great.
Speaker:They talked about how it was a great investment.
Speaker:Solana is at $50 right now.
Speaker:It was at $250 at its all-time high, which means that it's at 20% valuation right now.
Speaker:Now, you can view that, oh, by the way, in Ethereum, who they'll talk about in just a
Speaker:minute, it's not down that much, right?
Speaker:Ethereum's all-time high was $4,900.
Speaker:It's at $1,765 as we record right now.
Speaker:So it has not dropped as much.
Speaker:I figured it out prior to the podcast, but just to make sure, and that is certainly true.
Speaker:They're talking about how it's a great investment, about how during the next bull run that it's
Speaker:going to hit $500, it's going to double its all-time high, maybe $1,000.
Speaker:There is literally no evidence to support that, none, and there's no reason for them
Speaker:to be saying that and misleading their listeners.
Speaker:They admit that Solana has a lot of issues.
Speaker:It's centralized.
Speaker:It's backed by VC money, which sounds great, until you realize that those VCs own most
Speaker:of the profit in that system.
Speaker:And they have this history of failures that are getting worse, and yet they're betting
Speaker:that this is going to be a great system, and they're telling their listeners that this
Speaker:is going to be a great system.
Speaker:And at the same time, they were downplaying Ethereum, talking about the gas fees.
Speaker:Now, I am not hiding my head in the sand.
Speaker:Ethereum has high gas fees at times.
Speaker:I actually looked it up prior to this podcast.
Speaker:For days now, Ethereum gas fees have been $1.50, not hundreds of dollars.
Speaker:That in fact is what they said.
Speaker:Those values are reached during periods of intense activity, such as when that board
Speaker:8 NFT land thing went on, which was $1 billion worth of activity, and they did not handle
Speaker:that properly.
Speaker:In my opinion, that should have been done through a roll-up, not through the Ethereum
Speaker:mainnet.
Speaker:Now, regardless, everyone is aware of that.
Speaker:However, at the same time, you do not see Ethereum going down.
Speaker:You do not see Ethereum having these systemic problems.
Speaker:And yet, Ethereum is getting poo-pooed while they're saying that this system that, as far
Speaker:as I can tell, is not even beta-worthy at this point, and yet this is the next big thing.
Speaker:Now, the ETH 2.0 merge is coming up, so on another website, another YouTube channel,
Speaker:another very popular YouTube channel, they were actually talking about Ethereum.
Speaker:Now, I do not know that they were not talking about Solana at the time.
Speaker:I think they were actually talking about Cardano, but they were talking about Ethereum and saying
Speaker:that the fees are high and it is just old and blah, blah, blah, and Cardano is going
Speaker:to end up beating it.
Speaker:Again, that is their opinion.
Speaker:They have nothing to back that up.
Speaker:Now, it is possible.
Speaker:Cardano certainly is taking their time and doing things in a proper manner, but Cardano
Speaker:has nowhere near the market share of Ethereum.
Speaker:Ethereum is at number two in total market cap.
Speaker:The next closest competitor is a quarter of that, of their market share.
Speaker:And yet, I do not know, Ethereum is persona non grata.
Speaker:Why?
Speaker:Well, they cannot get the merge out fast enough.
Speaker:They are doing it properly.
Speaker:They are making sure that it does not cause issues, and yet they are being derided for
Speaker:it.
Speaker:Now, will the merge solve everything?
Speaker:No, absolutely not.
Speaker:It will not solve gas fees, but it will let them move on to go do other things such as
Speaker:work on these gas fees problems.
Speaker:Now, I have gotten ahead of myself because I have gotten a little wound up, so I am going
Speaker:to have to go back.
Speaker:It is possible Solana is going to hit $500.
Speaker:It is possible Solana is going to hit $1,000, but in my opinion, there is a far less chance
Speaker:of Solana hitting those figures before blowing apart, which is most likely is what is going
Speaker:to happen in my opinion than ETH does of hitting $8,000 or $10,000 or more dollars.
Speaker:So why would I bet on Solana?
Speaker:Because I can get a few more X potentially out of my return, but I stay up late at night
Speaker:worrying about it.
Speaker:When is the next crash coming?
Speaker:When is my blockchain going to be offline for a day?
Speaker:Boy, that looks great.
Speaker:It did happen with Solana just a few months ago.
Speaker:So I do not want to question their motives, but I do want to question their thought process.
Speaker:I do know in fact that both of these channels, now they are not getting paid by Solana, certainly
Speaker:that I am aware of, and I do not think that is happening, but they do get paid by a lot
Speaker:of different companies to promote different products.
Speaker:As I have discussed, that puts a spin on things, and there are certainly cases when it causes
Speaker:a real issue.
Speaker:If I am getting backed by Coinbase, if they are sending me money every month, then why
Speaker:would I talk about how Coinbase goes down every time that there is a huge spike in traffic,
Speaker:a big jump up or a big drop down in the market, and everybody is trying to buy or sell, and
Speaker:Coinbase conveniently goes offline?
Speaker:You will not hear that from a website, from a YouTube channel, from a podcast that is
Speaker:getting paid for by Coinbase.
Speaker:I have become even more aware, I guess, over the last few months of how important this
Speaker:is, of how messed up this information is.
Speaker:I am already getting emails from people wanting me to promote stuff on my podcast, and I am
Speaker:like, you do not understand.
Speaker:I do not have anybody.
Speaker:I have a very small audience.
Speaker:Well, we will pay you $1,000 to promote X, Y, or Z.
Speaker:There is a lot of money.
Speaker:There is enough that it can skew things and just mess the whole picture up, and I am not
Speaker:saying that everybody... There are people on YouTube who do not take any money.
Speaker:They have made hundreds of videos, and they have never taken a dollar.
Speaker:I applaud those people, and it gives their information that much more value to me.
Speaker:Could Ethereum become less than number two?
Speaker:It is possible.
Speaker:I do not think it is probable, and I do not think it is very responsible to run around
Speaker:and say things like that, and I will tell you, in my opinion again, what will happen.
Speaker:From everything that I have seen, and I listen to the developers when they talk, which I
Speaker:am not sure that some of these people do, the merge will happen in August.
Speaker:There is a very good chance of that happening.
Speaker:We are in a bear market.
Speaker:We have all decided that, yay, we are in a bear market.
Speaker:At this point, we do not know how long we are going to be in a bear market, but it is
Speaker:a perfect opportunity for the Ethereum developers to get this merge done and go on about their
Speaker:way and do other work and get things taken care of while the retail is not around.
Speaker:They are not going to lose their number two place in a bear market.
Speaker:That would happen during a bull market.
Speaker:We will see where they are at at the start of the next run, whenever that is.
Speaker:Maybe it is 2024.
Speaker:I think it will be sooner, but whatever that is.
Speaker:We will see, but do not write them off just because, I do not know, somebody made some
Speaker:money on Solana.
Speaker:I have no idea why these people are talking like this.
Speaker:It is like I wonder.
Speaker:The older I get, the more I filter what I listen to when it comes to this stuff.
Speaker:I look and I question why do they say this and why do they say that, and you should be
Speaker:doing the same.
Speaker:Number two, most crypto platforms will not make it long term.
Speaker:That is a fact, and that is a verifiable fact.
Speaker:Do you understand?
Speaker:I have some figures here, pulled up from CoinMarketCap.
Speaker:As of a couple of months ago, there are almost 18,500 cryptocurrencies.
Speaker:There are probably 18,500 by now.
Speaker:That is a lot.
Speaker:This is counting everything, every crypto that has ever been made, dead, alive, almost
Speaker:dead.
Speaker:It is like the old Monty Python quest for the Holy Grail.
Speaker:I am not dead yet, but in fact, you almost are.
Speaker:We know that in 2009, Bitcoin was created.
Speaker:Within the next few years, you had a coin called Namecoin, one called Litecoin, which
Speaker:is still around, and Peercoin.
Speaker:I do not remember Namecoin and Peercoin.
Speaker:I do remember Litecoin, and like I said, it is actually still around in active use.
Speaker:It has not done that great.
Speaker:It is a fork of Bitcoin.
Speaker:I think it happened in 2013 or 2012, somewhere around there, and it was about the blockchain
Speaker:size, if I am not mistaken.
Speaker:I hope I got that correct.
Speaker:But it is clearly lost, but it somehow has managed to retain a community and at least
Speaker:be somewhat active.
Speaker:By the end of 2013, there were over 50 different cryptocurrencies.
Speaker:By the end of 2014, this is kind of where we hit our stride.
Speaker:There was over 500.
Speaker:I got involved in crypto around 2014.
Speaker:I do not remember all these currencies.
Speaker:I am sure a lot of them were already dead by that point, but what people do not understand
Speaker:is or they do not think about is that most of these cryptocurrencies do not make it.
Speaker:In fact, the vast majority do not.
Speaker:Or if they are around, they have ridiculously small caps and ridiculously, you are not going
Speaker:to make any money with them.
Speaker:So you have got that going on.
Speaker:That is a fact.
Speaker:When I got involved in crypto in 2014, if you will indulge me for just a minute, this
Speaker:will hopefully give you some perspective on where I am coming from.
Speaker:As a computer person, I work in computers on a day-to-day basis.
Speaker:I was fascinated by the technology of blockchains, and of course, like everybody else, well, most
Speaker:everybody else, I was wanting to make some money.
Speaker:I realized early on that blockchain technology could potentially change the world and be
Speaker:a very disruptive force.
Speaker:I have since come to the conclusion that it will.
Speaker:I do not see how that is not going to happen at this point.
Speaker:I have never believed that this is all going to be done in one blockchain.
Speaker:Let me repeat that.
Speaker:I have never believed this was all going to be done in one blockchain.
Speaker:As much as I like Bitcoin, I can never be a Bitcoin maxi because Bitcoin cannot serve
Speaker:the financial needs of the world.
Speaker:Now, there is a lot of things that Bitcoin can do and do well, but it cannot serve the
Speaker:needs of everything in the financial world.
Speaker:Finance in particular, money, whatever, is an area that very easily translates to blockchain
Speaker:and it makes a lot of sense.
Speaker:It is a huge market where it is hundreds of trillions of dollars.
Speaker:In my job, I have worked with different products and whatever and I have become a pragmatist
Speaker:about technology.
Speaker:I use whatever is best.
Speaker:That is what that means.
Speaker:I am pragmatic.
Speaker:I use a Mac not because I am an Apple fanboy, but because I think that Macs in general are
Speaker:more stable than a Windows server or Windows computer laptop.
Speaker:At this point, I do not think Linux is really viable on a laptop and in fact, all the servers
Speaker:that I work on, and it is a lot of them, they all run Linux.
Speaker:There you go.
Speaker:I am being pragmatic about it.
Speaker:I believe the same thing about crypto.
Speaker:I believe that Bitcoin has a place.
Speaker:I believe that there are other projects that will have a place in this long term.
Speaker:I believe that we can be fairly confident in some of those at this point, Ethereum,
Speaker:Cardano probably, and maybe, well, I am not sure we can go much further than that at this
Speaker:point.
Speaker:Long term.
Speaker:The next few years maybe, but not long, long term.
Speaker:But I am absolutely, Ethereum, we got smart contracts, we can do a lot more complex things
Speaker:that we can do on Bitcoin, and yet, there are things that Bitcoin do better, and it
Speaker:is Bitcoin that in fact is being chosen as a store of value and as a currency, and we
Speaker:see that now at the nation state level with countries like El Salvador and the Central
Speaker:African Republic.
Speaker:But you cannot do a complicated smart contract on Bitcoin.
Speaker:You just cannot.
Speaker:Now the Bitcoin maxis will all be going, jumping up and down and saying, but, but, but, I will
Speaker:let the market settle it, and I'll go from there, okay?
Speaker:I am looking at the long view here and where the world is going in terms of finance and
Speaker:this kind of thing.
Speaker:All right.
Speaker:I also realized Bitcoin and crypto, crypto in general, this whole market, whatever you
Speaker:want to call it, is the wild, wild west.
Speaker:I've said this a number of times.
Speaker:I realized that early on, I signed up in 2014 with Mt. Gox and literally within days they
Speaker:were bankrupt because of the Mt. Gox hack and their bankruptcy.
Speaker:With the ability to make great wealth in this market, there's also, there's a lot of uncertainty
Speaker:and we're getting clarity and regulation and this kind of thing as we move along, but certainly
Speaker:in these early days it was not there.
Speaker:All right.
Speaker:One of the things I realized early on is that Bitcoin was important.
Speaker:I didn't really have the same realization about Ethereum early on.
Speaker:Even so, because of my pragmatism, because of this viewpoint I have about technology
Speaker:during the 2017 bull run, I didn't concentrate on Bitcoin and Ethereum as I probably should
Speaker:have.
Speaker:I invested in a number of different projects, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, mind you.
Speaker:I did make money during the run up of Bitcoin to $20,000, which was the peak of that market.
Speaker:I didn't hold on to those profits and as the market slid down in 2018, I froze.
Speaker:I didn't sell anything.
Speaker:I didn't convert anything to Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Speaker:I just froze and I didn't buy at the bottom and I didn't DCA.
Speaker:Every one of those were mistakes.
Speaker:Every one of them, they were mistakes and I have lost a lot of money because of that.
Speaker:The reality is between 2018-ish, early 2018 and early 2020, I was away from the market.
Speaker:I kept the coins, but I really didn't pay attention to the crypto news.
Speaker:I was so discouraged that I kind of blocked it out, if that makes sense.
Speaker:When I got going in early 2020, most of those assets outside of Ethereum and Bitcoin were
Speaker:garbage.
Speaker:They were down 90 plus percent and they were worthless.
Speaker:I dozed coin, which ironically, because of Elon Musk tweeting something, it explodes
Speaker:back to life after I sold it, but I don't even care about that.
Speaker:Oh my goodness, there was a number of different assets that they were worthless.
Speaker:I converted them into either Ethereum or Bitcoin and I moved on.
Speaker:Since that time, I did learn to be a little bit more cautious.
Speaker:I invest in projects that I do understand what's going on.
Speaker:My current list is this.
Speaker:I actually made a list tonight before I started this recording.
Speaker:Bitcoin, of course, Ethereum, Cardano, and a token called ADAX, which is a Cardano decentralized
Speaker:exchange, Polygon, Polkadot, and Loopring.
Speaker:All of these are utility tokens.
Speaker:All of them, but Loopring and ADAX are in the top 20.
Speaker:I looked it up to make sure of MarketCap as listed on coinmarketcap.com.
Speaker:All of them, except Loopring and ADAX.
Speaker:I don't hold very big positions in either one.
Speaker:They were, to an extent, speculation.
Speaker:I believe in both of those projects.
Speaker:They're both doing legitimate things, but they are very early in their process, and
Speaker:I don't yet know.
Speaker:I certainly haven't made the return I would like off of them, and I went ahead and held
Speaker:them.
Speaker:They were not large positions for me, so even as the market went down, I just decided to
Speaker:hold them.
Speaker:I will hold on to them until the next upturn of the market.
Speaker:Before we reach the top of the next market, I will make a decision.
Speaker:Are these two, Loopring and ADAX, are they actually doing things that make sense, and
Speaker:are they making progress?
Speaker:Is their token price going up, and so on and so forth?
Speaker:I may convert them at that point or decide to keep them.
Speaker:It will not affect my portfolio if I lose them, if they turn to dust, so to speak, during
Speaker:the next.
Speaker:That's my background in a nutshell.
Speaker:That's where I'm at right now, and my crisis is this, and this is really where I get my
Speaker:show title from.
Speaker:I want everything to succeed.
Speaker:I do.
Speaker:I believe in crypto so strongly.
Speaker:I want everything to succeed, and yet they won't.
Speaker:They will not.
Speaker:I want to put money into Crypto Blockchain X and make 100X returns in the next 30 days,
Speaker:just like I see on YouTube and Twitter, and yet, statistically, that's not going to happen.
Speaker:I want everything to be rainbows and unicorns.
Speaker:I hope you know what that means.
Speaker:I want it to all be nice, because blockchain fixes everything.
Speaker:That's what they say.
Speaker:If I get paid to go out and walk, how is that not rainbows and unicorns?
Speaker:For those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, there is a token called Stepin where
Speaker:you literally get paid to go walk.
Speaker:Just pause right there and think about that.
Speaker:Where's the economics behind that?
Speaker:That right there should just be like put big flashing warning signs around you.
Speaker:Stepin, and I did look it up, and I want to include an article in the show notes, and
Speaker:we'll even discuss this article a little bit.
Speaker:It has zero chance of long-term success.
Speaker:It is very much a pyramid, a Ponzi scheme.
Speaker:The way that they make money is by bringing in new people, and I promise you, at some
Speaker:point, people will stop moving into that system, so-called system.
Speaker:We're actually seeing this a lot in the market right now, not to get on a sidetrack, but
Speaker:Netflix, for example, basically operates on that same model.
Speaker:There's 7 billion people in the world, and we'll bring TV streaming service to them all,
Speaker:and that's how everything's going to keep going up, and yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker:They found out very recently that that's not actually going to happen.
Speaker:In fact, they had a big drop in subscribers' quarterly growth, year over year, whatever
Speaker:it was that they did, and because of that, their stock dropped like a rock when they
Speaker:did their earnings report.
Speaker:Going back to Steppen, to me, at least, it's very obvious.
Speaker:It's a scam project.
Speaker:It is.
Speaker:I don't know what else to call it.
Speaker:It's a scam project, and yet, on that very same channel that we were talking about earlier
Speaker:that was talking about Solano like it's a great investment, and at the same time saying
Speaker:that Ethereum has issues, within 10 minutes of that, they were talking about, they were
Speaker:giving away, I don't know, Steppen came up, and they were giving away something that you
Speaker:need to get involved.
Speaker:It's insane.
Speaker:This channel has thousands of people on a live stream listening to this.
Speaker:Many of them don't critically think about what they hear, and they just, oh, Steppen,
Speaker:yeah, everybody's into Steppen.
Speaker:Oh, look, I invested $500, I invested $1,000, I invested $10,000, and it's down 50% in the
Speaker:last few weeks, and then it slides another 50% and another 50%, and it's gone.
Speaker:The people who created the project, I promise, they made millions, and the people who got
Speaker:in early, they made millions, a few people, and everybody else is left to be schmucks,
Speaker:and it's depressing.
Speaker:Despite all that, I refuse to give up on crypto.
Speaker:Despite the charlatans, despite the charades and the scammers, I refuse to give up.
Speaker:I have been involved in this too long, and I know that it will end up being a major part
Speaker:of technology.
Speaker:I believe that fiat, paper money that has no real backing, the US dollar, is very rapidly
Speaker:dying, and I believe that Bitcoin specifically, with no clear competition, and if there is
Speaker:some, please let me know.
Speaker:You can email me macintosh at generationwealthcrypto.com, whatever, I'll give the email at the end.
Speaker:It can act as both a store of value and as currency with the Lightning Network.
Speaker:Prior to the Lightning Network, it could not, not since the very early days.
Speaker:It made no sense to use it as currency.
Speaker:Now it does.
Speaker:I also think, aside from Bitcoin, that other solid projects will succeed in the long run.
Speaker:Not every one of them, not even projects that are solid necessarily.
Speaker:They may fail in the long run, but there will be projects that do.
Speaker:So that's my way out of my existential crisis.
Speaker:I'm not giving up, and I will do this going forward.
Speaker:This is my long-term plan.
Speaker:I'm going to be keeping 50 to 60% of my portfolio in Bitcoin.
Speaker:Is it possible that Bitcoin goes to zero?
Speaker:Yes, anything is possible.
Speaker:Is it statistically significantly possible that it's going to go to zero?
Speaker:No, it's not.
Speaker:Bitcoin is used by millions of people.
Speaker:It's being adopted by nation states.
Speaker:It's being used for international commerce.
Speaker:The chances of it going to zero are very, very small.
Speaker:I'm going to keep another 25 to 35% of my portfolio in Ethereum.
Speaker:The remaining 15%, so 50 to 60% in Bitcoin, 25 to 35% in Ethereum, and that will total
Speaker:up to 85%.
Speaker:The remaining 15%, I'm going to divide up among other projects that I believe in, and
Speaker:I'm going to keep that number very small, around six to eight different tokens, and
Speaker:roughly what I've got right now.
Speaker:Now I may change out those tokens from time to time.
Speaker:Like I said, if Loopring and Adax don't make it, they'll get replaced.
Speaker:If one of these projects don't make it, it'll get replaced, or if I believe that it's reached
Speaker:its limit, and I will monitor those.
Speaker:In my opinion, we have not reached the market bottom, and it will be somewhere, and I may
Speaker:be wrong about this.
Speaker:I'm absolutely willing to accept that I'm wrong about this, but I believe it's going
Speaker:to be somewhere around 20 to 22K.
Speaker:I talked about that 200-day simple moving average, how once we've broken through the
Speaker:50-day simple moving average, every time we've reached it, we have not reached it yet.
Speaker:It is at like 22.4K.
Speaker:We're roughly $6,000 off of that right now.
Speaker:I do believe, I'm quite confident we will reach that.
Speaker:Maybe we go below it for a bit.
Speaker:We may go below 20K.
Speaker:If we go below 20K, it's going to get kind of crazy in terms of Ethereum.
Speaker:If Bitcoin is at 22K or so, Ethereum is going to be at $1,000 or so, $1,100, $1,200.
Speaker:It may go below that.
Speaker:If it breaks $1,000, it will probably head on down towards $800.
Speaker:I don't think it'll go below $800.
Speaker:Then it gets down to these levels, I don't know how long it's going to stay near this
Speaker:bottom.
Speaker:It may bounce and turn and head right back for 40K or something.
Speaker:It may bounce, come back up a little bit, and then go back down and revisit it.
Speaker:It might bounce a few times, or it may just kind of stay in this 20 to 25 to 30K range
Speaker:for months.
Speaker:Now, for DCAers, that would actually be the ideal scenario, collect as much as possible
Speaker:during that timeframe.
Speaker:I plan to accumulate as much as I can near the bottom.
Speaker:Will I invest in projects outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum when they're at these lows?
Speaker:Probably not, and again, in those general ratios, I will invest in Cardano.
Speaker:I may throw some money at Polygon, Polkadot.
Speaker:I probably won't buy any more Lootbringer, Adax at this point, although frankly, they're
Speaker:both such a small cost.
Speaker:I might buy 10, 50 bucks, I don't know of each, just to...
Speaker:If they do reach their potential, that would be a really good return on investment, and
Speaker:the downside is 50 bucks, right?
Speaker:That's what I'm going to lose.
Speaker:I'm not going to be speculating anymore.
Speaker:I'm not buying anything because somebody promotes it, and I tried not to do this in the past.
Speaker:It's just really hard not to.
Speaker:I'm not going to do it because somebody said that it's going to 100X.
Speaker:I don't care who it is.
Speaker:It could be anybody, and it doesn't matter.
Speaker:I'm going to buy an asset because I believe that it has a long-term future in a blockchain
Speaker:ecosystem that will support both world finance and economies.
Speaker:If I can't take the time to research and understand what's going on on a blockchain, on a specific
Speaker:blockchain, then there is no reason for me to be involved.
Speaker:If there's not a real end goal for that project, there's no investment coming from me.
Speaker:Stepping, walking, shoes, getting paid to go...
Speaker:That is not an end goal.
Speaker:I'm sorry.
Speaker:That is a pyramid scheme.
Speaker:Not a dime of my money will go into that, and I would highly encourage you not to do
Speaker:the same until Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, any of these other, quote, meme coins, show me proof
Speaker:that they've got a place in this future ecosystem.
Speaker:Not any money of mine, and I have done that in the past.
Speaker:I think I actually still...
Speaker:One thing I didn't add to that list, it's a very small position.
Speaker:What is that one called?
Speaker:It is a meme coin, it's SCAR.
Speaker:You can look up the token.
Speaker:I'm upside down in it.
Speaker:It's a very small position though, and that one is another one.
Speaker:I would add it to that list along with the ADAX and LoopBring.
Speaker:If I don't see something, well, I will be exiting that one when it does get to be positive
Speaker:simply because I don't see a long-term thing in that.
Speaker:I just don't.
Speaker:The whole metaverse thing, and I may be wrong about this one, and I'm willing to admit that.
Speaker:The whole metaverse saying all of it, I don't get it.
Speaker:I don't understand it.
Speaker:To me, it's just pure speculation.
Speaker:I don't get it, and I'll just go ahead.
Speaker:There was a point where I thought maybe that wasn't true.
Speaker:NFTs, I actually can get along with a lot better than that.
Speaker:The whole metaverse thing, which NFTs are part of, but I just don't get.
Speaker:It's okay.
Speaker:There's plenty of opportunity elsewhere for me.
Speaker:If you understand that and you believe in that, then I would say you go for it.
Speaker:Now I would say my ratios, I would recommend your most stable asset should be the largest
Speaker:percentage of your portfolio.
Speaker:Stable is not the right word because, of course, we want these things to go up.
Speaker:Your safest asset.
Speaker:If you're going to speculate, and I would call this speculation something like sand
Speaker:right now, which is a metaverse type token, it should be a small part of your portfolio.
Speaker:If you don't agree with that, that's okay.
Speaker:You're welcome to do whatever you want, and that's fine.
Speaker:This is where I'm at, and I've gotten at this after, oh man, this is scary, six, seven,
Speaker:eight years at this.
Speaker:Crypto isn't done.
Speaker:There is a lot of room to grow, and people, I think, don't understand that sometimes.
Speaker:We are, I've talked about this, we're not anywhere near the end of this.
Speaker:I believe before it stabilizes, in other words, kind of stops growing in value overall, that
Speaker:it's going to be a hundred trillion dollar market at minimum.
Speaker:It could be a lot more than that.
Speaker:It depends on how much of the financial markets and whatever that it becomes involved in,
Speaker:and I think ultimately it will be a lot of it.
Speaker:But even though the market cap is going to be so large, there are not going to be hundreds
Speaker:of blockchains running that technology.
Speaker:There's not.
Speaker:There's probably going to be 20 or less that have significant portions of that hundred
Speaker:trillion dollars.
Speaker:Let that sink in, and I think a lot of people, they think every blockchain is going to make
Speaker:it.
Speaker:That's not true.
Speaker:They're not.
Speaker:Most of them will not.
Speaker:99% of them in the end will not, in fact, maybe even higher.
Speaker:It's increasingly obvious to me that Bitcoin itself will be powering the world economy
Speaker:on I would call it a base layer, maybe a layer zero.
Speaker:Other people don't use that term.
Speaker:They use it differently, but we say a layer one is like a Bitcoin blockchain, right?
Speaker:That's Bitcoin, it's the token, you've got the blockchain, that's the layer zero, Ethereum
Speaker:layer zero, but then you have layer two, which is, well, lightning on the Bitcoin network
Speaker:would be a layer two example.
Speaker:I would call this layer zero of the overall Bitcoin blockchain economy, if you want to
Speaker:call it that, and I don't know, maybe that's just being silly, but it's going to power
Speaker:the world's economy.
Speaker:At least that's the way I see it at this point.
Speaker:What I'm talking about is things like world currency reserves.
Speaker:It's inevitable.
Speaker:The IMF cannot stop it.
Speaker:They want to, it will not.
Speaker:They will not stop it in the end, and it doesn't matter.
Speaker:It has the least chance of failure at this point of any blockchain.
Speaker:Despite Silvio McCauley's views, the guy who created Algorand that we talked about last
Speaker:episode, despite his views that it's Neanderthal, I think that at this point, Ethereum has the
Speaker:best chance of powering the majority of the complex finances, right, the smart contract
Speaker:based stuff.
Speaker:I would say in the long run, this may not be true.
Speaker:Cardano may end up being the biggest.
Speaker:I think there will probably be several.
Speaker:There may be multiple at this level doing this type thing.
Speaker:You may have Ethereum, you may have Cardano.
Speaker:Maybe Algorand is in there, right?
Speaker:What I don't think you will see, and maybe this is just me being a curmudgeonly old man,
Speaker:but I don't think Solana, who this would be their market, I don't think they'll be around.
Speaker:I don't.
Speaker:That's just my opinion, and I would not recommend investing them.
Speaker:There may be new tech like Algorand, came online in 2019, it's only been a few years.
Speaker:Maybe they'll come in and jump everything, right, and become the lion's share of the
Speaker:market.
Speaker:Time is going to tell.
Speaker:And that's it.
Speaker:That's my plan in a nutshell.
Speaker:I am going to simplify things.
Speaker:I am not going to get distracted on this side or the other, and I'm going to stop any speculation
Speaker:that I might have done.
Speaker:You could certainly argue that, for example, Scar was speculation on my part.
Speaker:But that won't be happening anymore, that type thing.
Speaker:It's distracting, and it's just wishful thinking, really.
Speaker:And these more, these tokens that have less of a chance of a success, but a higher upside
Speaker:to them, a higher potential upside, they will be a smaller part of my portfolio for sure.
Speaker:So I do have a little bit of news.
Speaker:Oh, well, let's talk about this article real quick.
Speaker:Talk about some news.
Speaker:Let's talk about this article real quick, and it all ties in together.
Speaker:Of course, it's just, I don't know.
Speaker:It's been a fun week, I tell you.
Speaker:So this was an article in Forbes, and it's kind of embarrassing that Forbes would actually
Speaker:have this.
Speaker:I'll read a little bit of it, bits and pieces of it here and there.
Speaker:So hopefully you'll understand this, and I hope when you read this, it makes sense to
Speaker:you why it's so obvious that this is a Ponzi scheme, right?
Speaker:The only way this is going to work is if you continue to bring people into this.
Speaker:What would encourage you to do more exercise?
Speaker:The obvious answers say the founders of Stepin is Cold Hard Cash.
Speaker:Their move to earn running app offers its users cash rewards to get more active, and
Speaker:it's already persuaded millions of people to sign up in the space of just a few months.
Speaker:Do you want to incentivize people to change their behaviors and do more exercise?
Speaker:Well, that sounds great.
Speaker:To participate, the users must download the Stepin app and then buy a virtual pair of
Speaker:sneakers in the form of a non-fungible token, an NFT.
Speaker:By the way, that cost $1,000.
Speaker:Once they've done that, each time they go for a walk, jog, or run outside, Stepin's
Speaker:GPS tracking and motion sensor technology monitors how far they have traveled and rewards
Speaker:them with tokens.
Speaker:These tokens can be spent inside the game on upgraded sneakers, for example, or cashed
Speaker:out in hard currency, really tokens.
Speaker:I think it's Solana and then one other token, something like that.
Speaker:Now here's the thing.
Speaker:Where's all this money coming from?
Speaker:It's coming from selling these silly shoes, okay?
Speaker:And they're very expensive.
Speaker:And people will get very quickly to the point where they don't want to spend that kind of
Speaker:money to potentially get anything.
Speaker:And as it dries up, the whole thing will fall apart, all right?
Speaker:So the sneakers are priced in Sol, which is the native currency of the Solana blockchain.
Speaker:And that's what Stepin operates on.
Speaker:Oh, well, the entry price, according to this, which this was a bit ago, it's gone well above
Speaker:$1,000.
Speaker:So there you go.
Speaker:To me, sounds like they're basing the whole thing on selling these sneakers.
Speaker:So when the sneakers stop getting sold, because the infinitesimally small percentage of people
Speaker:who will do that, they've done it, then the whole thing will fall apart, it's that simple.
Speaker:And I don't think I'm incorrect in that.
Speaker:So that, here's our little bit of news, which directly relates to Stepin, which is partially
Speaker:what got me off on all of this.
Speaker:Came out this week.
Speaker:Oh, the Stepin token dropped 50% in one day because of this news.
Speaker:It's recovered a little bit, but eh, whatever.
Speaker:Stepin to block mainland China users to comply with regulatory practices.
Speaker:So we already described the gain.
Speaker:It's going to ban users in an attempt to follow Chinese regulatory requirements.
Speaker:Now what this article, and shame on Cointelegraph, but what this article doesn't say is what
Speaker:that means, this regulatory requirements.
Speaker:China, I saw this from another source, China is saying it's a Ponzi scheme.
Speaker:Don't let our people do this.
Speaker:Now that's not brought up in this article.
Speaker:They just say for regulatory requirements.
Speaker:So it was created by two Chinese immigrants who live in Australia.
Speaker:I don't quite understand.
Speaker:This other sentence says the company's uncertainty has been fueled by rumors that we forced to
Speaker:leave mainland China.
Speaker:So I don't know if that means the company itself is in China or if they're talking about
Speaker:the users.
Speaker:I don't know.
Speaker:It doesn't matter.
Speaker:It's just, it's crazy.
Speaker:It's crazy.
Speaker:So this came out and the government looked at this and said, this is a Ponzi scheme.
Speaker:Our people shouldn't be involved in this to protect them.
Speaker:It's that simple.
Speaker:So I don't really fault them on that.
Speaker:And the token went down 50%.
Speaker:Yay.
Speaker:If you go back and look at it, when it came out, had a huge jump up and then it's just
Speaker:been sliding down ever since.
Speaker:And I don't think that's going to change.
Speaker:And I don't really think it's because of the market.
Speaker:I think they've already reached their limit and it doesn't matter who pumps it or whatever.
Speaker:Anybody who thinks about this for more than five milliseconds realizes what this is.
Speaker:That's our news for the week.
Speaker:There really, it's only been a few days and there wasn't a whole lot.
Speaker:I am recording this early.
Speaker:It will come out on Monday morning.
Speaker:The markets right now are at 28.8.
Speaker:We were down again for the day.
Speaker:In fact, we closed at about 28.6, if I'm not mistaken, which is a very critical level.
Speaker:And we had been below that earlier today.
Speaker:It's a three-day weekend for the US.
Speaker:Memorial Day is Monday.
Speaker:The markets will be closed.
Speaker:We will have low volume over the weekend.
Speaker:I'm not sure that the price won't go down.
Speaker:It may pop back up.
Speaker:But if we get much below that 28.6 level for very long, that may start the next leg down,
Speaker:which we've been going down consistently for a few days now.
Speaker:So it will not surprise me at all if that happens.
Speaker:So be safe.
Speaker:I hope I've at least given you something to think about.
Speaker:I don't idly do this.
Speaker:This work takes me, it takes me a lot of time to do this.
Speaker:This episode in particular, I have put a lot of thought into.
Speaker:And I don't lightly take putting out.
Speaker:And these, of course, these are all my opinions.
Speaker:You can do whatever you want.
Speaker:But there's a lot of stuff going on in the crypto market.
Speaker:There's always been stuff.
Speaker:I believe it's getting worse.
Speaker:I think it ultimately, some of it, a lot of it will go away.
Speaker:But people are always looking as a basically a way to make easy money.
Speaker:Why do you think somebody came up with something like Shiba Inu?
Speaker:It's easy money.
Speaker:There's nothing behind it.
Speaker:There's no thought to it.
Speaker:What are we going to do with this?
Speaker:Ah, we're just going to make a crypto coin because we can make money off of it.
Speaker:So what these projects do, it actually does matter in the end.
Speaker:So at least think about these things.
Speaker:Hey, the Generation Wealth Cryptocurrency Podcast supports Podcasting 2.0.
Speaker:It's a value for value podcast with no sponsors and no advertising.
Speaker:As we've talked about, it helps us retain our journalistic integrity, if you want to
Speaker:call it that.
Speaker:I can talk about anything, but is Steppen going to sue me?
Speaker:I doubt it.
Speaker:I'm just a little guy out here talking about facts that I see in the news.
Speaker:You can support the podcast in three ways, time, talent, and treasure.
Speaker:If you want to support the podcast and has the time or talent, I could use some help
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Speaker:Treasure is just what it sounds like.
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Speaker:And I would highly encourage you to go try out one of those.
Speaker:I use the Fountain app quite a bit.
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Speaker:If you like the content, I would love it if you would tell your friends about the Generational
Speaker:Wealth of Cryptocurrency podcast.
Speaker:That is the best way that we can grow.
Speaker:Thanks for being here.
Speaker:I do really truly hope this has been helpful and I would love to hear from you.
Speaker:I'm on Twitter at MacintoshFintech and you can reach me by email at macintosh@genwealthcrypto.com.
Speaker:And of course, the Generational Wealth website is at genwealthcrypto.com.
Speaker:Now go out and make it a great week.