Britain has spent a century as a two-party country. That may be over - and this week's local elections may be the strongest signal yet of a big breakup.

This week, I talk with Matthew Price, analyst and strategist at Focal Data in London, about what's happening to British politics right now — and what the polls are (and aren't) able to tell us about it. They cover what the 2024 MRP polls got wrong about Labour's vote share, how public polling shapes voter behavior (including the Conservative "stop the supermajority" strategy), the unprecedented rise of five-party competition in a system built for two, and why the modeling tools that defined the last election may not be up to the next one. This episode is a shorter one to provide some background to the elections this week - a follow-up episode on MRP methodology and UK polling institutions is coming soon.

Our Guest

Matthew Price is a Research Manager in Focaldata's Analytics team. He previously worked as a pollster at Deltapoll, and has contributed political analysis to BBC Radio, Newsnight, and the Channel 4 election night coverage. Matthew holds a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of Oxford and an MPhil in Philosophy from Trinity College Dublin. You can follow him on Bluesky at @matthewbprice.bsky.social.

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