Today on the podcast, the results of our late September update of our global analyst outlook survey. We conduct this survey several times a year, pulling together the views of our equity analysts around the globe for the US, Europe, Canada, and Australia.
The big things you need to know:
First, across all industries and regions, our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months.
Second, at the global sector level our analysts have the most positive performance outlooks for REITs, Materials and Financials.
Third, our analysts were slightly less optimistic on forward performance for Europe/UK than other regions.
Fourth, our analysts generally had mixed views of the policy backdrop.
Fifth, when we look at some of our macro indicators, Canada has been the bright spot in terms of performance YTD and over the past month.
If you’d like to hear more, here’s another three minutes.
Starting with Takeaway #1: Across all industries and regions, our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months.
There was a little less optimism on demand and valuation, though still a favorable tilt.
Meanwhile, Views on the policy backdrop were mixed.
In an optional write-in question, most saw lower interest rates as a positive for economic activity, spending, and valuations.
Moving on to Takeaway #2: At the global sector level our analysts have the most positive performance outlooks for REITs, Materials and Financials.
They also had constructive performance outlooks on Health Care, Industrials, and Utilities, but to a lesser degree.
Performance outlooks are the least constructive for Consumer Discretionary and Energy.
There were some differences at the very top of the list by region. In the US, for example, the top three were Financials, Real Estate and Materials. In Europe, the top two were Health Care and Industrials.
Takeaway #3: Our analysts were slightly less optimistic on forward performance for Europe/UK than other regions.
This seems to be largely due to less constructive valuation assessments on Europe/UK.
Valuation views for Europe were dragged down by Financials, Industrials, and Staples with negative or neutral views. Most other sectors had positive valuation views.
Takeaway #4: Our analysts generally had mixed views of the policy backdrop.
The main exception was Canada, where our analysts were more constructive on the Canadian policy backdrop.
We asked our analysts to identify what specific issues were driving their views: tariffs/trade, regulation, and energy/climate were the issues most in focus globally.
There were some variations on what topped the list by region – in the US it was tariffs and trade; in Canada – Energy/climate; in Europe – regulation; in Australia – Energy/Energy transition.
Wrapping up with Takeaway #5: When we look at some of our macro indicators, Canada has been the bright spot in terms of performance YTD and over the past month.
The US has come in 2nd. Europe is in third but is starting to pick up.
th improving expectations for:
Canada was seeing this as well until recently but has slipped a bit.
The US has also been most resilient on economic surprises.
That’s all for now. Thanks for listening. And be sure to reach out to your RBC representative with any questions.