What can we know about the oil that gets through Hormuz?

Turns out most of what we know filters through a single data point: a company called Kpler.

Before the war, Kpler's numbers were solid. They combined transponder tracking with loading and unloading records, following each ship payload from port to port.

But then the shadow fleet tankers switched their transponders off. No one reports their cargo any more. Now, Kpler has to fall back on satellite images. And those are redacted by the Pentagon...

Now, says Philip Pilkington, we're all in the woods looking for Yetis - and we can't tell whether we've hit a real Sasquatch, or just a guy in a woollen suit.

Brent was $70 to 80 when everyone agreed the Strait was shut. It's now above $90. In July, 'Oil Glut 1.0"' knocked about $30 off the price. But 'Glut 2.0' has only moved it by about $10 - well within ordinary weekly volatility.

Does the market no longer believing the people pushing these stories?

***

Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’.

And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era.

Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen.

You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack.

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