Shownotes
Political polling and forecasting are complex and fraught with uncertainty, yet they remain crucial tools for understanding elections and voter behavior. The challenge lies in accurately modeling likely electorates, communicating probabilities to the public, and interpreting correlations between issues and voting patterns.
In this episode, Farrah talks to John Sides, a political scientist and professor at Vanderbilt University. Sides discusses the difficulties in surveying young voters, the limitations of issue-importance questions in polls, and his ideal dataset for studying voter behavior across election cycles. He emphasizes the need for more nuanced interpretations of polling data and forecasts, urging us all to embrace uncertainty while still finding value in the data.
Resources
Good Authority
By John Sides:
Our Guest
John Sides is a distinguished political scientist and professor in the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. His research focuses on political behavior, public opinion, and the dynamics of American elections. Sides is also a co-founder of Good Authority, a publication that brings academic insights to bear on current political issues. Previously, he was a founding editor of The Monkey Cage, a popular political science blog that was later published by The Washington Post.
Sides is known for his data-driven approach to analyzing political trends and his ability to communicate complex political concepts to a general audience. He has authored several books on American politics and elections, including The Gamble and Identity Crisis, which examined the factors behind Donald Trump's 2016 election victory.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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