Welcome to Fix-It Friday, the podcast segment that simplifies financial strategies to help you make smarter decisions hosted by Jonathan Blau, CEO of Fusion Family Wealth. This episode tackles the question many investors are asking: how can markets rise amid war, inflation, and economic fear? Jonathan breaks down the critical difference between short-term noise and long-term signal, explaining why earnings—not headlines—drive lasting market growth and why disciplined investors stay the course.
What You’ll Learn:
The difference between market “noise” and long-term “signal”
Why stock markets can rise even during global crises
How corporate earnings drive long-term investment outcomes
Why reacting emotionally to headlines can hurt your portfolio
Want to make smarter financial decisions grounded in clarity and confidence? Subscribe and share the Crazy Wealthy Podcast. https://www.youtube.com/@CrazyWealthyPodcast
To learn more about Fusion Family Wealth’s evidence-based investment strategies, visitwww.fusionfamilywealth.com and request our current disclosure brochure.
Key Timestamps:
00:00 – Disclaimer & Introduction
01:40 Breaking down current events vs. market performance
02:20 Noise vs. signal: the core investing principle
03:05 Short-term volatility vs. long-term growth explained
04:30 Strong earnings data and what it means
05:50 Oil price spike example and market reaction
07:30 Why markets move before clarity arrives
Key Takeaways:
Markets react to headlines in the short term but follow earnings over time
Volatility is normal—and not a signal to change strategy
Strong corporate earnings often outweigh negative news cycles
Staying invested requires discipline and a long-term mindset
👤 About the Host:
Jonathan Blau is the President and CEO of Fusion Family Wealth, a fiduciary wealth management firm he founded in 2013 to help families achieve clarity, confidence, and purpose with their money. With a deep focus on behavioral finance, Jonathan teaches investors how to recognize emotional biases and make evidence-based decisions that support long-term success. A sought-after speaker in wealth management, Jonathan previously held senior roles in tax and estate planning at Arthur Andersen. He holds a BS in Finance, an MS in Taxation, and an MBA in Accounting. Based on Long Island, Jonathan is active in the local business community, supports organizations such as the Middle Market Alliance and Sunrise Day Camp, and enjoys boating with his family.
A copy of Fusion's current written disclosure brochure discussing our advisory [00:00:15] services and fees is available upon request or www.fusionfamilywealth.com.
han Blau: Welcome to another [:
Uh, for the past, particularly for the past month, happens on and off during most crises, but [00:00:35] because of everything that's going on right now, I'm getting it quite often. And that question is, Jonathan, [00:00:40] how could the stock market be going up like it is when the world is coming to an end. Literally, [00:00:45] that's a quote from, from more than one person.
d I understand it, you know, [:
Voiceover: Welcome to The [00:01:05] Crazy Wealthy Podcast with your host, Jonathan Blau. Whether you're just starting [00:01:10] out or are an experienced investor, join Jonathan as. He seeks to [00:01:15] illuminate and demystify the complexities of making consistently rational financial [00:01:20] decisions under conditions of uncertainty. He'll chat with professionals from the [00:01:25] advice world, entrepreneurs, executives, and more to share fresh [00:01:30] perspectives.
your wealth. And now here's [:
Jonathan Blau: Let's answer the [00:01:40] question. How can the market be going up with all this going on the war in Iran and Israel? [00:01:45] Uh, the, the price of oil spiking two days, 20% in March. [00:01:50] Uh, and on and on and on the politics. So. Oil prices while they spiked [00:01:55] 20% in just two days back in March.
o we'll talk about that in a [:
Most of what we are [00:02:20] reacting to emotionally is what I call noise and what actually drives [00:02:25] long-term investment outcomes is what I call the signal. Noise [00:02:30] versus signal. What an important clarification. Let me be clear about something. 'cause [00:02:35] this part matters. When people hear advisors say things like, markets don't [00:02:40] move on headlines or fear, that can sound wrong because obviously prices jump [00:02:45] around what we call volatility, when bad news hits and is advertised.
[:
Volatility responds to the noise, the [00:03:15] political issues, the wars, the inflation, the pandemic, et cetera. [00:03:20] Compounding long-term responds to the signal. Earnings. It's, as I said, many [00:03:25] times earnings and only earnings that drives long-term stock prices, not these other [00:03:30] things that we call noise over longer periods of time.
al that matters the most are [:
Companies do the opposite. They'll pay down debt, they'll lay off workers, they'll do whatever's [00:04:00] rational. Uh, for the second reason that they keep growing, which is the CEOs and leaders of [00:04:05] these public companies have a fiduciary duty to maximize our value as [00:04:10] shareholders. And that's exactly what they do, maximize value.
d third, to minimize losses. [:
88% of those [00:04:40] companies have beaten earnings expectations, and that number really matters in [00:04:45] context because historically, the five year average earnings beat rate is about [00:04:50] 78%. The 10 year is about 76%. So, [00:04:55] so far this earnings quarter having, uh, 88% beat the [00:05:00] earnings is dramatically, uh, better than long-term averages, not just good.
And [:
Companies don't panic with guidance, and investors don't permanently [00:05:30] reprice businesses lower. So even though headlines feel unsettling, the market's [00:05:35] saying so far, the businesses themselves are holding up. That's why you can have [00:05:40] wars, oil shocks, recession talk, and still see markets trend higher over [00:05:45] time.
ier in the discussion is the [:
Earnings forecast didn't collapse, and companies absorbed [00:06:10] cost pressures better than feared or passed them along to the consumers. [00:06:15] The market didn't ignore the shock. It processed, it adjusted, and moved on. [00:06:20] Short-term volatility showed up. Long-term earnings power stayed intact. [00:06:25] Why this always feels wrong.
In real time. Uh, [:
Crisis versus the others. But because of resolution, all of the [00:07:00] others have been resolved. This one still has the perceived uncertainty surrounding it. When and how [00:07:05] will it get resolved? And so that's called the rear view mirror trap or hindsight bias. Again, [00:07:10] episode 23 is worth revisiting there, but every major stress point feels like this [00:07:15] time should be different.
Uninvestible, the financial [:
The noise in the short run, that's volatility. But over [00:07:45] time, prices follow earnings, not fear. And I'll close with a quote. That captures this [00:07:50] better than anything I could have said myself. It's from a gentleman named Fred McLean, [00:07:55] who's the president of Heritage Investment Group, which CNBC recently ranked as the number one [00:08:00] advisory firm in the country.
said was, quote, we are very [:
Tactical allocations when we change that plan in response to [00:08:35] every short term economic forecast and market move. Tactical allocation [00:08:40] is, is in our view, disastrous to success. So tactical allocation reacts to noise. [00:08:45] Strategic allocation, which is what did I put [00:08:50] together in my portfolio when I did my plan?
% a year after [:
[00:09:15] Stay focused on what matters, and thanks for tuning in to this week's. Fix It Friday. [00:09:20] You can catch us on all your favorite podcast venues Crazy [00:09:25] wealthy podcast.com as well as fusion family wealth.com.[00:09:30]
into another episode of The [:
Disclaimer: The previous podcast by Fusion Family Wealth, LLC Fusion was intended for general information [00:09:55] purposes only. No portion of the podcast serves as the receipt of or is a substitute for personalized investment advice from Fusion or any other [00:10:00] investment professional of your choosing. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and it should not be assumed that future performance of any [00:10:05] specific investment or investment strategy or any non-investment related or planning services, discussion or content will be profit.
Be suitable for your [:
[00:10:20] Fusion is neither a law firm nor accounting firm, and no portion of its services should be construed as legal or accounting advice. No portion of the video content should be [00:10:25] construed by a client or perspective client as a guaranteed that he or she will experience a certain level of results if Fusion is engaged or continues to be [00:10:30] engaged.
