Mood Swings with Lauren Goldstein

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Welcome back to Cross Tabs.

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I'm your host, Farrah Bostic.

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I know it's been a minute.

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There are a variety of

reasons for not uploading an

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episode, , in a couple of months.

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They are personal, professional,

uh, home renovation related.

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In fact, on the day I was recording

this conversation, . The electrician was

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here and he was installing new outlets

and switches for this laundry alcove.

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I'm trying to renovate and I

have a kind of weird house.

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So this effort involved him climbing

up into a crawl space over the back of

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my kitchen, and as he climbed back out

again, the plywood panels that cover

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that crawlspace tried to crawl out

with him and on him and all around him.

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So it's been that kind

of chaos ever since.

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I don't know about you, but as the

summer turned to fall, everything

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started to feel very overwhelming.

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Ice CBP and the National Guard

were showing up in places like the

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town of my birth, Portland, Oregon.

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And they were showing up in the small

towns along the Long Island shoreline

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that I live in now, and people whose

salaries are paid by taxpayers.

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Were doing things like deliberately

trying to tear gas, a protestor in a

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frog costume outside an ice facility.

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You know, the ridiculous

can be the sublime.

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It can also be the horrific and the

speed with which events were unfolding,

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including the shutdown, which had

begun only a couple of days before.

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This recording was for me.

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Dizzying, and I'll be straight with you.

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Between the precarity of the non-AI

economy, the uncertainty of the Trump

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trade policies, and then AI itself,

my business has been struggling.

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It feels to me as a qualitative

researcher and a brand strategist that

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the incentives for understanding the truth

of people's experiences have kind of.

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It slipped away and that we are not so

much living in a post-truth world, but

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in an indifferent to the truth world.

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And that means a disengagement from

the kind of authentic data collection

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and interpretation that I do.

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And that seems to be true both

for government and for business.

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This sense of a reckless uncoupling from

truth was on my mind then as it is now.

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And so it was a perfect time in some

respects for Lauren Goldstein, author of

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the Mind the Gap Newsletter on Substack

and a researcher at Change Research.

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And I had a soft launch, an idea we'd

started to cook up over the summer.

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The idea is it would be a monthly

conversation with her about recent

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polling, how that polling is being framed,

and what it tells us about the civic

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mood and the prospects for democracy.

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The first outing of what we're

calling mood swings was informal.

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Lauren had just moved house.

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I was in the throes of

that renovation project.

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Truth be told, it is not over yet, and

we had not quite had the time to create

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an overly formal program for the episode,

and then it took me a month to edit it.

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So here we are a month later.

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In that time, the shutdown

has come and gone.

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Some estimates say that nearly 7

million people in 2,700 locations

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all over the United States

participated in the No Kings protests.

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Democrats won big in off year

races, large and small all over

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the country just last week.

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And at the same time, our

neighbors continue to be

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kidnapped from our neighborhoods.

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Healthcare costs will still balloon for

millions who depend on a CA subsidies, and

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over a million jobs were lost this year.

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So the mood is weird, and it seemed

like as good as any of a way to start

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our conversation by asking Lauren

what her mood was and she said,

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Ugh, the mood.

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The mood is tough.

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I feel like I am in a very

strange position sort of

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personally and professionally.

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And that's sort of the, the

interplay of those two when it

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comes to what's happening in, in

our political systems right now.

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Because on the one hand is, it

is sort of my professional role

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and obligation to stay informed.

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, I also think that's just generally

something that we should strive for as,

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you know, citizens and human beings to

sort of stay abreast of what's happening

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and, and not tune out the greater world.

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At the same time, some degree of

tuning out the greater world is the

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only thing that is helping me keep

putting one foot in front of the

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other because the mood is not good.

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The mood is not good.

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I'm not feeling, I'm feeling

very overwhelmed by it all.

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, I'm feeling sort of confused about

how best to continue to operate

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and like continue making progress

at my job and at my work because.

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It feels like there's maybe a

broader reckoning that we all need

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to have and we haven't had it.

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And I don't know if part of that is

hubris on our, parts and how much of it

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is just like we haven't had a moment.

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You know, there's there, it's not

like there's a natural point at

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which we can say, you know, we're

gonna stop building the plane in

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midair and have a conversation about

what the plane should look like.

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So it's not that I necessarily blame us

for not having that deeper reckoning yet,

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but I worry that maybe we're not going

to have it, uh, because it's just one

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crisis after the other and it's easier

to keep doing what we know how to do.

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Um, so that was a lot.

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The mood is overwhelmed.

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The mood is, the mood is

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yeah.

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I completely hear you.

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It's, it's a sense of where do you

dip your toe in the conversation

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to be part of the conversation.

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What do you wanna add to it?

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What's already been said,

what hasn't already been said?

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, What do we even do now?

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And, and my solution to that problem,

Lauren, was to start gut renovating

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the sort of weird little cubby between

two buttress walls in in my house that

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was the laundry closet, and rebuild

it as a much better laundry closet.

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My answer to these problems, my

way of checking out is to go get a

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crowbar and start ripping out drywall.

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, riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Love it.

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Maybe I, I might train for a marathon, but

something to, so I need something to do

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Exactly.

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Yes.

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No, I think like, , my, my friend Laura

Brownstein, she was like, I like to,

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after a project has closed, like go cook

something that requires a lot of chopping.

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And I was like, exactly the same,

exactly the same instinct as mine.

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Only mine's, , more obviously destructive

and there's nothing delicious at the end.

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There's just, there's just

hopefully, , walls that are in

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fact perpendicular to the floor.

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, That's, that's all I ask,

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

That's a huge win.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

is a huge wind.

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I think one of the other things that's,

, interesting to me in this moment

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about how to respond as a person who

cares about this stuff , the kind of

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question of pacing and what's sticking

and what's sliding away and like, it's

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hard even to tell what's sticking.

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, You know, we had about 10 days of

very concentrated discourse around

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political violence in the wake

of the shooting of Charlie Kirk.

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That feels like it's already

kind of old news again.

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Mm-hmm.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

And I don't know what, at

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what point that flipped.

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I genuinely don't.

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I'm experiencing a feeling of almost

like being gaslit by the news where it's

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Yeah.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

um, the administration is sending

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in troops to every, you know,

every blue city in the country.

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Oh, no, they're not.

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Oh, yes they are.

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No they're not.

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Well, here's the footage of them doing

violence in the suburbs of Chicago.

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Here's footage from Portland where

supposedly we weren't gonna send anybody.

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You know, there have been polls

in the field the last few days

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about like, you know, do you,

do you approve of this or that?

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How, how do you feel about the shutdown?

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How do you feel about, you know,

troops going into American cities?

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And it, it kind of feels a little like,

I don't know how you chase that opinion.

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It seems like it would have to be

super fluid because it's unclear

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even what the facts are on the

ground if you're not on the ground.

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

It is so hard.

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, Yeah, I mean that's one of the number one

questions that I get often from clients

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or perspective clients who are looking

to understand public opinion a little

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bit better in response to this moment.

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Because, and that's one of

the number one questions we

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get is like, what is sticking?

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Can't even

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

tell what's sticking.

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And I almost feel like I, I wonder

if we should abandon that question

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because the reality is like, what does

and doesn't stick is not a few things.

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That's not a, that's not

always a super organic process.

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There's a lot that public opinion

leaders can do to make something

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stick and make it salient.

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So to some degree, there's a little

bit of passivity in that question that

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I would love to see us move beyond and

be a little bit more proactive about.

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What are we going to make?

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Stick what, you know,

what hills do we die on?

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

yeah.

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. , riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

So that's part of it.

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And then the other part of it is like,

yes, so to, to some degree, even in an

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organic fashion, some things stick as

in, you know, resonate and people have

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strong opinions about them, or they've

heard more relative to other things

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that are happening in the news that

they've heard comparatively less about.

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But then there's an immediate next thing.

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And so, like, what do we mean by stick?

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Do we mean, you know, people

are gonna care a year from now?

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I, I, I cannot say with any confidence

that I know what that's going to be.

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, A lot of that depends on the first thing,

which is the extent to which public

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opinion leaders decide to make something

salient, decide to incorporate it in

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perpetuity, in their messaging and in

their outlook and in their communication

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with voters and with, with media.

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I completely understand and

relate to that desire to know what

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is breaking through to people.

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I just think we have to be mindful

of the fact that sometimes what

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breaks through is what people try

really hard to make breakthrough.

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And also the shelf life for what's

salient to people right now is

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just like vanishingly short.

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It's like an avocado in a

Manhattan grocery store.

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You know, you have like a

six hour window on that thing

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before it's just gone, you know?

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So I just, I, I just, I wanna

caution that like without.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

inserted effort,

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I'm not sure anything sticks as

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long as we want to see it stick.

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That requires strategy and that

requires some proactive attempt.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

I think that's right, especially

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given the pace at which all

sorts of things are happening.

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, There's like a immediate memory

hole of all sorts of things.

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I, I feel like every, every once in a

while there's some reminder of a news

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item from all of six months ago that

I'm like, oh, right, that happened and.

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And so if, if I'm feeling that way and I'm

like glued to my phone and, and I'm bing

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this all the time, I don't even know how

like ordinary people are dealing with.

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In fact, I was talking to a friend of

mine, , who's, who is born and raised

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in this little town that I live in,

and, , she is a massage therapist,

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and so she's like in a dark room, in a

basement of a, of a salon spa, massaging

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people all day long, not on her phone.

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, And, uh, yeah, right, and I asked her

the kinda weekend after, , Charlie

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Kirk was shot, I asked her like,

so just outta curiosity, had you

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ever heard of him before this week?

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And she said, no, I'd never

heard of him before this week.

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The, you know, one of the girls

upstairs, she's on TikTok all

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the time, so she knew who he was.

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, And then she kind of said to me

like, the one thing I did hear

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about recently is this thing about.

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The buckets of kitty litter in

schools and, and kids thinking

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that they're cats and dogs.

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And I was like, wow, that story is

like four and a half, five years old.

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And it finally trickled through the

algorithm to her relatively recently.

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And so a thing that I thought was frankly,

largely a dead story by now is still

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just like floating around out there.

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And if you haven't heard

it, then it's new to you.

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So, , and there's just a lot

of, a lot of that that goes on.

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The one thing I do kind of wonder

about, is the cumulative effect of

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things and the sort of residue of a

vibe that's left even after like the

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specifics of the event have dissipated.

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, And I think like in general.

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I would credit, broadly speaking, the

right in this country for doing a better

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job of like, even if they don't remind you

of the specifics of the thing, you have

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to be deep in the Lord to remember about,

you know, the cost of Bill Clinton's

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haircuts or whatever like that, that stuff

nevertheless sort of leaves a residue

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of all of these people are corrupt and

hypocrites and, you know, they, they

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pretend that they care about poor people,

but really they're, you know, they're,

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they're millionaires and blah, blah, blah.

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Like, there's sort of a,

a vibe that's left humming

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Mm-hmm.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

after the, even after the specific

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news is long forgotten or you never

knew it 'cause you weren't even,

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you know, politically conscious.

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Then I think the question then is there

have been over the last few days, even a

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bunch of these like overnight polls about

like, who do you blame for the shutdown?

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Those seem to be a little

bit all over the shop.

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There's also a whole lot of both.

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I blame both parties for the shutdown.

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, I don't know, like, do,

do you have a sense of.

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The mood in the electorate are there?

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Or would you say that I, I feel like

there are many moods, but I'm, I'm

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not sure even how to think, think

about, , I, I feel like this is a

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question a lot of, like TV journal

asks ask What's the mood out there?

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And

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Yeah.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

uh, who, yeah.

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Who are you talking to?

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What town are you in?

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Well that, but that's exactly how I

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would start answering the question

is like, you know, if, if there's one

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truth about the state of the American

electorate right now, it is that it

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depends on who you're talking about.

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Because there's it.

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We're so divided.

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We're divided in our media ecosystems.

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We're divided in our attention

and our attention span.

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It's not just a partisan divide.

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, It's also paying attention

versus not paying attention.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

I

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I think there are plenty of

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people for whom the shutdowns

not even breaking through at all.

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You know?

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I mean, if you are not a government

employee and or you are not close to

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or partnered with, or you know, in

any way closely connected to a federal

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employee and you are not a a, a person

that is particularly tuned to politics,

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there's a very good chance that you

don't know what's happening, let

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alone have a concept of who to blame.

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And I would say the, the people for

whom that applies disproportionately,

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if you're gonna ask them who to

blame, they're gonna say both.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

right?

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, riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Because, and this is just a, a

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hobby horse of mine that I will

plug at any, at any opportunity.

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I, there's a myth of

the independent voter.

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riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

in

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riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Our discourse, this idea of this like

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principled, informed, intellectually

balanced person, this sort of like

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paragon of intellectual honesty that's

sort of, you know, evaluating both

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parties, seeing the truth for what

it is with some degree of objectivity

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that partisans are incapable of,

and that therefore they have better

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access to real true good information.

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That is a myth.

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Most independents are paying

less attention to politics.

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They are less plugged in on the process.

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They are consuming less information and

are generally less informed than strong

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partisans are about current events and,

and what's taking place on the ground.

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And increasingly, I would say independents

are the people we should be looking to

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: 00:14:09

when we're trying to see who are the

double haters, the people who hate both

285

: 00:14:12

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

mm-hmm.

286

: 00:14:13

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Again, there's, I think that there's this

287

: 00:14:14

myth that independents see democratic

de democratic, uh, elected officials

288

: 00:14:19

as having particular strengths and

weaknesses, dito for people on the

289

: 00:14:21

Republican side, and they're sort of

saying, well, you know, depending on

290

: 00:14:24

what's most important to me in my life and

what's happening in the country at this

291

: 00:14:27

moment, I'm gonna lean in one direction

or the other based on my evaluation

292

: 00:14:30

of those strengths and weaknesses.

293

: 00:14:32

What I'm seeing in my data, by and large,

is that when I ask questions about which

294

: 00:14:36

party is better at X, Y, Z, whether

that's protecting social security and

295

: 00:14:40

Medicare and Medicaid, the economy, which

I put in quotes because the separate

296

: 00:14:45

rant, but what does that even mean?

297

: 00:14:48

Uh, healthcare, , childcare,

education, you name it.

298

: 00:14:52

Increasingly what I'm seeing

is that independents are saying

299

: 00:14:54

neither party is good at anything.

300

: 00:14:57

Anything Majorities of independence

on every possible policy measure are

301

: 00:15:01

telling me neither party is good at that.

302

: 00:15:03

So it's a long-winded way of circuitously

answering the question of what's

303

: 00:15:07

breaking through about the shutdown.

304

: 00:15:08

I think it just very much depends on

who we're talking about, because there

305

: 00:15:11

is a non-trivial proportion of the

country that is not paying any attention.

306

: 00:15:15

And so if we're looking to understand

better how they are perceiving the

307

: 00:15:19

shutdown, the parties that inattentiveness

combined with, , lack of perceived

308

: 00:15:26

strengths on the part of either parties

is I think a really important finding

309

: 00:15:29

that we need to pay more attention to.

310

: 00:15:31

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

I completely, completely agree with this.

311

: 00:15:34

This is related to the kind of idea

that, , Mike Potter has written about as

312

: 00:15:38

well of like flat land versus 3D land.

313

: 00:15:41

And like, if you're going to understand

the electorate and what it did, you have

314

: 00:15:44

to include all the people who didn't

vote last time and did vote this time.

315

: 00:15:49

You have to include all the

people who are, have taken the,

316

: 00:15:51

the effort to register to vote.

317

: 00:15:54

And don't like, they're, they

are part of the electorate, even

318

: 00:15:57

if they're not casting a ballot.

319

: 00:15:59

And while their lack of, , a

vote seen in one way means that

320

: 00:16:04

they didn't have a voice in the

outcome, that's not exactly true.

321

: 00:16:08

Like if they had even a gentle preference

between their options and chose not to

322

: 00:16:13

express that preference, that advantage

is one side or the other based on like

323

: 00:16:18

of, of those sides who were able to turn

out their people, who they turned out.

324

: 00:16:21

And I think this is the same

thing I'm seeing on, you know, my,

325

: 00:16:23

my glances up at, , cable news.

326

: 00:16:25

Is this like the net negative, net

positive for either party as like

327

: 00:16:30

a, well, who's winning the day

on the question of the shutdown

328

: 00:16:32

or the economy or immigration or.

329

: 00:16:34

Ice raids or any of the other stuff.

330

: 00:16:36

And it's like looking

for the, the net number.

331

: 00:16:39

But that's just, you know, subtracting

Republican from Democrat or vice versa.

332

: 00:16:43

It's not including this whole

giant gulf of people who are

333

: 00:16:47

going, actually I blame them both.

334

: 00:16:49

And then another 8% who are

like, I don't know, I dunno.

335

: 00:16:52

I don't know.

336

: 00:16:52

I

337

: 00:16:53

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Yeah.

338

: 00:16:53

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

got no idea.

339

: 00:16:54

And I think that this is, this is creating

a really kind of unproductive discourse

340

: 00:17:00

because I think to your point, like the,

the decision to make something salient,

341

: 00:17:05

to make something stick, to , push

forward with a little courage on something

342

: 00:17:11

I think gets tampered down by this.

343

: 00:17:13

Like, no, no, it's okay.

344

: 00:17:15

'cause they're, they're

blamed more than we are.

345

: 00:17:17

And so, so we don't have, we'll

just sit back, you know, it's,

346

: 00:17:21

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Yeah.

347

: 00:17:21

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

it's the James Carville theory, right?

348

: 00:17:23

We'll just sit back and

let them screw themselves.

349

: 00:17:25

And it's like, are they though,

like, is that what's happening?

350

: 00:17:28

Does public opinion matter when the

administration pretty clearly doesn't

351

: 00:17:36

care what we think, like they're gonna

do what they wanna do regardless.

352

: 00:17:40

Like, I, I was just talking about this

last night with my husband about like.

353

: 00:17:44

The shutdown and then these messages

from Vote and whoever else about like,

354

: 00:17:48

we are going to specifically punish and

fire and defund programs that the left

355

: 00:17:54

likes and that the Blue States wanted.

356

: 00:17:56

And so like specifically, I live in

New York, so obviously like the Hudson

357

: 00:17:59

River Tunnel and the Second Avenue

Subway and, and all of these kinds of

358

: 00:18:02

infrastructure modernization efforts.

359

: 00:18:06

, And I'm old enough to remember when

every other week was infrastructure

360

: 00:18:09

week in the first Trump administration.

361

: 00:18:11

, But apparently we don't like it if

it's, if it would benefit cities

362

: 00:18:14

that are broadly speaking democratic.

363

: 00:18:16

And the thing that's weird about that

is like you would think that would be a

364

: 00:18:20

real concern for frankly both the Trump

administration and the Republican party

365

: 00:18:25

and the Democrats, especially like the

not very popular New York Democrats at

366

: 00:18:29

the moment, , that they would want to like

make some kind of hey out of that because

367

: 00:18:33

hey, a midterm's happening next year.

368

: 00:18:35

There was a bit of a

red shift in New York.

369

: 00:18:37

There was a red shift in New Jersey.

370

: 00:18:39

Like you take away these infrastructure

projects that sure annoy people in the

371

: 00:18:43

short term, but ultimately, you know,

create a lot of jobs and opportunity and

372

: 00:18:48

improve the general, , quality of living

hopefully in, in New York City and places

373

: 00:18:52

like it, like those things ought to be bad

for you politically, unless you just kind

374

: 00:18:57

of, I mean, here's my apocalyptic thought.

375

: 00:18:59

My apocalyptic thought is, unless you

just don't really believe we're gonna

376

: 00:19:02

have free and fair elections next year.

377

: 00:19:05

Well,

378

: 00:19:05

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

yeah, that's oof.

379

: 00:19:07

There's a lot to break down there.

380

: 00:19:08

Yeah, yeah.

381

: 00:19:09

No, there's a lot to break down there.

382

: 00:19:10

I mean, quite honestly, I'm

not going, I don't wanna do any

383

: 00:19:14

fearmongering, and I'm not necessarily,

I'm not making a prediction.

384

: 00:19:18

I'm gonna express a concern

385

: 00:19:21

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Because

386

: 00:19:22

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I feel like I have, I have a lot

387

: 00:19:23

of, I feel like I encounter a lot

of people in my life that ask me

388

: 00:19:28

forecast related questions about

the midterms because of my job.

389

: 00:19:31

In a way that almost frustrates

me, because it conveys this idea

390

: 00:19:36

that we were operating under normal

circumstances, you know, of like, oh,

391

: 00:19:39

well we lost presidential last year.

392

: 00:19:42

, And that incumbent is kind of unpopular.

393

: 00:19:44

So, you know, how do you like our chances?

394

: 00:19:46

I always feel a little bit

overwhelmed and at a loss on how

395

: 00:19:49

to respond to that question because

I don't wanna, like perpetuate

396

: 00:19:52

negativity or scare people, but.

397

: 00:19:56

To be honest with you, my concern is

not that we don't win the midterms,

398

: 00:19:59

my concern is that we win the midterms

and then what happens, January 6th

399

: 00:20:05

might prove to be a, a test run.

400

: 00:20:08

I, I don't know, and that's not a

prediction on my part, but it is a thing I

401

: 00:20:11

worry about and think about all the time.

402

: 00:20:13

So, I mean, given that reality,

this question of like, does

403

: 00:20:16

public opinion data matter?

404

: 00:20:18

I mean, some of my questioning of

that is just coming from like a

405

: 00:20:23

sort of sad place because it's,

it's what I do professionally.

406

: 00:20:27

So quite obviously, I think

it matters tremendously.

407

: 00:20:30

But it is dismaying to say the

least, to feel like the powers

408

: 00:20:34

that be are not as responsive to

it as we would want them to be.

409

: 00:20:37

Right?

410

: 00:20:37

Like in a more functional democracy

we would receive signs and

411

: 00:20:40

signals that that mattered more

to the people who represent us.

412

: 00:20:45

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yep.

413

: 00:20:45

, riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

And that's not happening.

414

: 00:20:47

At the same time, I think I really

wanna caution against overinterpreting

415

: 00:20:52

the fact that they are not necessarily

as constrained by that public

416

: 00:20:55

opinion date as we want them to be.

417

: 00:20:56

I don't think that that means that

they're not constrained at all.

418

: 00:20:58

There are still constraints around it.

419

: 00:21:00

I mean, we have seen reporting, for

example, around like a bit of a scramble

420

: 00:21:05

on, on the part of Republicans in

power to try to figure out how to like

421

: 00:21:09

rebrand and better message the one big

beautiful bill because it's unpopular.

422

: 00:21:14

So it, it, it, it's not like

they are utterly unconstrained.

423

: 00:21:19

Public opinion still matters.

424

: 00:21:21

They are not responsive to it in

a way that I think they should

425

: 00:21:24

be, but it doesn't mean that

they're utterly unresponsive.

426

: 00:21:28

I also think like, you know, having

done a lot of polling in deep red

427

: 00:21:33

places, , that are home to a lot of people

that I love and care about, there is

428

: 00:21:38

a lot of value in public opinion data.

429

: 00:21:40

Not just in terms of communicating it to

the powers that be and hoping that they

430

: 00:21:43

do the, the appropriate thing in response,

but it's a way of conveying to other

431

: 00:21:48

people that they have some degree of,

, majority moral, majority power in numbers,

432

: 00:21:55

ability to take collective action.

433

: 00:21:57

I think emphasizing to people that

they're not alone is really important,

434

: 00:22:00

and that's one of the things that I

have tried hard to do professionally

435

: 00:22:03

with my data, but also just personally

in my life since Trump took office

436

: 00:22:06

is sort of correct where I hear it.

437

: 00:22:09

This idea of like, well, I guess

I just don't know this country

438

: 00:22:11

anymore then, because I guess

this is what most people want.

439

: 00:22:14

This is absolutely not

what most people want.

440

: 00:22:16

Most people hate this, and a good

chunk of the people who don't,

441

: 00:22:20

aren't paying any attention.

442

: 00:22:21

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yeah.

443

: 00:22:22

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

So I just, I, I think it's

444

: 00:22:24

a complicated question.

445

: 00:22:25

I have complicated feelings about it

based on, you know, my desire to have the

446

: 00:22:30

maximum impact through my professional

work and worrying sometimes that my

447

: 00:22:34

ability to do that is diminished.

448

: 00:22:36

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

with a,

449

: 00:22:36

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

A wannabe autocrat in power, but

450

: 00:22:39

that is more a, you know, a personal

quandary than it is necessarily

451

: 00:22:45

a, a true sociopolitical reality.

452

: 00:22:47

Public opinion data still matters a lot.

453

: 00:22:49

A lot.

454

: 00:22:50

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

I, I think this is right.

455

: 00:22:51

I think this is the thing that I keep

kind of, I, I have kind of two tracks

456

: 00:22:55

that I'll, I'll try to, I'll go down one

and I'll come back and go down the other.

457

: 00:22:58

The one is just like, there feels

like, , a, a concerted effort in a

458

: 00:23:03

variety of spheres of public life to,

, diminish the role of voice in general.

459

: 00:23:10

And, you know, my, my kind of tagline

for this is less democracy everywhere.

460

: 00:23:13

This is happening in, , in corporate

boards and, and shareholder arrangements

461

: 00:23:18

where, , I think it's Exxon got a, got

permission from the SEC to basically say,

462

: 00:23:23

shareholders shall vote with the board.

463

: 00:23:26

On major issues.

464

: 00:23:27

Like there is no real exercise of

a vote in a shareholder meeting.

465

: 00:23:30

Now you can't say we

disagree with the board.

466

: 00:23:33

, You have, , a variety of cases now

where they're going to the SEC so

467

: 00:23:37

saying, you know, our shareholders

want to have a vote on a specific issue

468

: 00:23:40

and we don't wanna hold that vote.

469

: 00:23:41

And the SEC is saying, fine, you

don't have to hold that vote.

470

: 00:23:44

Like that's like the, the point

of those things was to kind of

471

: 00:23:48

create some voice for shareholders.

472

: 00:23:50

Otherwise, like the value here is

just like, well, I'm gonna give

473

: 00:23:53

you money and hope I get some back.

474

: 00:23:55

And that's it.

475

: 00:23:57

There's no real say in the direction

of the company, which I suppose

476

: 00:24:02

if you really dislike people like

Carl Icahn or something like that,

477

: 00:24:05

that probably feels great to you.

478

: 00:24:06

But like on the other hand, well then

what is the, like these shares are just.

479

: 00:24:12

Bets, like you don't get to advise

the house on how to run the game.

480

: 00:24:17

And in that case, like it's

just a reduction in voice.

481

: 00:24:20

And this is a reduction in

voice for people who have

482

: 00:24:22

resources to use in this way.

483

: 00:24:24

It's also a reduction in, in voice

for pension plans and public employee

484

: 00:24:28

unions and, and other large groups

of institutional investors who are

485

: 00:24:32

investing on behalf of other people.

486

: 00:24:33

It's a reduction in voice for

whoever is managing your 401k.

487

: 00:24:37

Like you get less of a say in

how business runs in the country.

488

: 00:24:41

You get less of a say if we reduce

access to the cores, we get less of

489

: 00:24:44

a say if we just stop even asking

people what they think about things.

490

: 00:24:48

And I think like the everywhere

that we can preserve people having

491

: 00:24:53

voice and that there is some, you

know, some upholding of democracy.

492

: 00:24:59

In little d democracy in more places,

the, the better off that we would be.

493

: 00:25:04

I mean, even like Starbucks announcing

all of these closures of stores,

494

: 00:25:08

like 60% of the stores they're

gonna close are unionized stores.

495

: 00:25:11

Like, you know, coincidence maybe.

496

: 00:25:14

Uh, but, but more, more likely.

497

: 00:25:17

It's a not so subtle

form of union busting.

498

: 00:25:18

And it's a way to say, we don't

really like employees having a

499

: 00:25:21

collective bargaining agreement, and

so we're gonna, we're just gonna,

500

: 00:25:24

not by closing the stores, they

can't stop us from closing the store.

501

: 00:25:27

And this is a very old strategy

for that sort of thing.

502

: 00:25:30

So, on the one hand,

like, I agree with you.

503

: 00:25:32

We, we should continue to do this so

that there is a place for people to

504

: 00:25:35

have voice, but I think the direction of

flow for who needs to hear that voice.

505

: 00:25:40

I think you nailed something really

important, which is we need to hear each

506

: 00:25:43

other's voices and that like we do need

to know that other people don't know that

507

: 00:25:48

much about something and we do need to

know that they have opinions we don't

508

: 00:25:52

agree with and we do need to know that

there is actually more people like me in

509

: 00:25:55

this red state than I thought there was.

510

: 00:25:57

I think that serves a really important

purpose On the other side of that.

511

: 00:26:02

We just relaunched our newsletter for the

difference engine for my, for my company.

512

: 00:26:05

And, and the kind of theme of it was

leadership because we've been doing

513

: 00:26:08

a lot of work around, , particularly

leadership and nonprofits for a

514

: 00:26:11

project we've been working on.

515

: 00:26:12

But, I wrote the essay at the

beginning of it that drew from a

516

: 00:26:17

talk I gave actually literally like

January,: 2020

517

: 00:26:21

, The theme of the talk was essentially

this, it is possible to make

518

: 00:26:24

good decisions even if they don't

work out the way that you hoped.

519

: 00:26:28

that it's, we, we live in a

world that's a lot about what.

520

: 00:26:32

, Poker players.

521

: 00:26:33

Annie Duke writes about this in her

thinking in Bet's book, but, it's

522

: 00:26:36

called resulting where like if your

strategy for your play is, doesn't

523

: 00:26:42

immediately pay off, you change strategy.

524

: 00:26:45

And this is actually not a great way

to, not a great way to play poker.

525

: 00:26:49

It's not a great way to gamble in general.

526

: 00:26:51

It's also really not a great way

to sort of direct your strategy

527

: 00:26:54

as an organization or a business.

528

: 00:26:56

, You have to play a few hands before

you can really figure out whether

529

: 00:26:59

it's the strategy that's not working

or whether it's something else.

530

: 00:27:03

And so this kind of outcome oriented

decision making that's like, as long

531

: 00:27:08

as it works out the way I hoped or

works out better than I expected,

532

: 00:27:11

then therefore it was a good decision.

533

: 00:27:13

Just isn't always true.

534

: 00:27:15

There are a lot of things that

organizations do that are really bad that

535

: 00:27:19

nevertheless pay off in some way and.

536

: 00:27:22

Oh boy, I just suddenly

conjured, , ASEZ recline.

537

: 00:27:25

, riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I did too.

538

: 00:27:26

I was thinking, I, I wonder if we

were thinking the exact same thing.

539

: 00:27:28

'cause I love this, this

line of, of thought.

540

: 00:27:32

Um, I was thinking about

the Tasi Coates interview

541

: 00:27:34

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yes, yes.

542

: 00:27:35

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

where, you know, he was sort of putting

543

: 00:27:37

him on the spot somewhat repeatedly

about, why did Democrats lose?

544

: 00:27:40

Why did, why are Democrats losing?

545

: 00:27:41

And at one point he sort of answers we,

they're losing because sometimes you lose.

546

: 00:27:45

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yes, yes.

547

: 00:27:47

Yeah.

548

: 00:27:47

Sometimes you lose , and also like,

the prescription therefore for a

549

: 00:27:51

strategy is very outcome oriented.

550

: 00:27:55

You know, he, he says there's a sort of a

weird jump cut towards the end, , where,

551

: 00:27:59

I don't know, he's going headed in one

direction and all of a sudden we kind of

552

: 00:28:02

cut from Tan Hasi back to Ezra and Ezra

says, I just, I don't want it to be close.

553

: 00:28:06

And yet his sort of prescription for

that is a strategy that, as near as

554

: 00:28:10

I can tell, has been the dominant

strategy of the National Party.

555

: 00:28:14

Since the nineties, which is

to triangulate and to like move

556

: 00:28:19

to the center and concede some

ground and so on and so forth.

557

: 00:28:21

And sure, I guess maybe we have

fewer pro-life democrats in Congress

558

: 00:28:27

that may have something to do

with the preferences of democratic

559

: 00:28:30

voters in Democratic primaries.

560

: 00:28:32

Yay.

561

: 00:28:32

Even in red states.

562

: 00:28:34

, And you know, as people have rightly

pointed out to him, like many of the

563

: 00:28:37

states he listed as ones that maybe we

should run pro-life candidates in these,

564

: 00:28:41

these states are states that have recently

had public referenda about whether or

565

: 00:28:46

not to protect abortion rights either

in their constitutions or by statute.

566

: 00:28:49

And in most of those states, the public

has chosen to protect abortion rights.

567

: 00:28:54

Even the one that he kind

of retreated back to.

568

: 00:28:55

Nebraska recently had some, some

abortion ballot measure where the

569

: 00:28:59

pro-choice side only lost by like two

points, which makes it a 50 50 issue.

570

: 00:29:03

And even in Nebraska, at which

point you have to ask yourself,

571

: 00:29:05

well, how much benefit do I get?

572

: 00:29:08

I think kind of paraphrasing, Tanana,

HASI Coates of kicking people out of the

573

: 00:29:11

tent in order to bring in theoretically

some people from outside of the tent.

574

: 00:29:16

Of course, part of that is assuming that

those people are just outside all tents

575

: 00:29:19

and not actually over in another tent.

576

: 00:29:21

Um, but like, this is a, this is a

satisficing I just want this outcome.

577

: 00:29:27

And so, uh, whatever gets me that outcome.

578

: 00:29:29

And my question is often like,

what are you going to do with

579

: 00:29:32

the power once you have it?

580

: 00:29:33

Like, fine, Mr.

581

: 00:29:34

Policy has admitted that like, politics

is about power, but power to do what?

582

: 00:29:39

And, and this is part of why, like

in in, in this talk and in in the

583

: 00:29:42

newsletter, you know, there is this

question of like, what is it that you

584

: 00:29:46

are trying to do and how do you do that

with integrity and intentionality as

585

: 00:29:51

opposed to flailing around hoping that

it pays off or placing a bunch of bets.

586

: 00:29:58

In a kind of hail Mary sort of a way, or

in in the other direction, being overly

587

: 00:30:02

cautious, like having too much caution

and not enough courage to try something

588

: 00:30:08

that might actually really pay off

bigger than any of the little incremental

589

: 00:30:11

things that you might do along the way.

590

: 00:30:13

And, you know, so again, contrary to

my interests as a researcher, , my

591

: 00:30:18

recommendation was like, actually,

before you pour more data on a

592

: 00:30:21

decision, maybe it's time to take

a step back and say, do we have a

593

: 00:30:24

good process for making decisions?

594

: 00:30:26

Do we reward intentionality and integrity

and a kind of net benefit calculus

595

: 00:30:31

for us as an organization, our state,

our stakeholders, our shareholders,

596

: 00:30:35

our employees, our customers?

597

: 00:30:36

, Does it work out for enough

people for it to be worth it?

598

: 00:30:40

And does it pay off enough for

the business to allow us to do

599

: 00:30:43

other things that we want to do?

600

: 00:30:44

Or is it just this incrementalism?

601

: 00:30:46

Are we retroactively justifying

our decisions because

602

: 00:30:49

hey, that one worked out?

603

: 00:30:50

Or did we have a good

process for doing this stuff?

604

: 00:30:52

And of course, you know, when I gave that

talk to the Bank of Canada, like, it,

605

: 00:30:55

it's not like it never occurred to them.

606

: 00:30:57

, But they don't, one of the things

we talked about in that session was

607

: 00:31:00

like, what would be the necessary

incentive structures for, especially

608

: 00:31:05

in business people to feel like

they were rewarded for making good

609

: 00:31:08

decisions, even if they didn't work out?

610

: 00:31:09

Because most of the time you're

bonused on results, not on.

611

: 00:31:13

Your process.

612

: 00:31:14

And I think the same is

true of elections, right?

613

: 00:31:16

At the end, you either have more votes or

not more votes, and you won or you lost.

614

: 00:31:21

Theoretically there aren't any,

ribbons for participation here.

615

: 00:31:26

But I think that isn't necessarily true.

616

: 00:31:28

I think part of the reason people are

feeling like, well, they're both to

617

: 00:31:31

blame, they both suck, they're both

bad at everything, is there isn't

618

: 00:31:34

even a good process for losing, you

know, you blow a billion dollars in a

619

: 00:31:38

hundred days and you still can't win.

620

: 00:31:40

It starts to feel to people like

maybe you're bad at your job.

621

: 00:31:43

And like that, that also

has its own effects.

622

: 00:31:46

Like people do have to feel like,

, you, yes, lost, fair and square in

623

: 00:31:51

the basic like rules of the game,

but also that you tried and that

624

: 00:31:55

like you did things that were.

625

: 00:31:56

Generally good for the people

that you are representing.

626

: 00:31:59

I mean, look no further than

sports fans who get really upset

627

: 00:32:03

when a team just isn't in it.

628

: 00:32:05

Like they're just not,

they're not there today.

629

: 00:32:08

They're not playing their best game,

they're not making good decisions and like

630

: 00:32:11

you could forgive them if they, you know,

left it all out on the field, as they say.

631

: 00:32:15

But if they just kind of phoned it in,

then the fans get really upset about that.

632

: 00:32:19

And I think the same thing

is happening here as well.

633

: 00:32:21

And so I do kind of also think like, are

we asking the right questions anymore?

634

: 00:32:25

Like if, if we're going to have this

in a situation where the wannabe

635

: 00:32:29

authoritarian isn't that responsive

to public opinion, then should

636

: 00:32:33

we be asking different questions?

637

: 00:32:35

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Gosh, you said so much

638

: 00:32:35

there that I agree with

639

: 00:32:37

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

I'm sorry,

640

: 00:32:37

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

and wanted and wanna dig into.

641

: 00:32:39

No, no, that's a good

642

: 00:32:40

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

on you.

643

: 00:32:40

I, sorry.

644

: 00:32:41

I

645

: 00:32:41

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

No, that's such a good thing.

646

: 00:32:42

That's such a good thing.

647

: 00:32:43

I mean, yes, fundamentally, I

think we are, we are frequently

648

: 00:32:47

asking the wrong questions.

649

: 00:32:48

I think the question of whether or

not something is popular is, is one

650

: 00:32:52

that I would love to sort of do away

with in its in its current form.

651

: 00:32:55

And that is not to undermine what

I said before about the fact that

652

: 00:32:57

public opinion matters and that

in a functional democracy, elected

653

: 00:33:00

leaders will be responsive to it.

654

: 00:33:02

It's more that what is popular

is a function of so much effort.

655

: 00:33:06

So much context.

656

: 00:33:07

It is not static, it's not shelf stable.

657

: 00:33:10

Sometimes it is consistent, and

those are issues that we should

658

: 00:33:13

take particularly seriously.

659

: 00:33:15

And I will take a moment to plug the fact

that one of those rare issues is abortion

660

: 00:33:19

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

mm-hmm.

661

: 00:33:20

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

consistently polls in the

662

: 00:33:23

sixties on the mostly illegal

versus mostly legal question.

663

: 00:33:27

And that is a stable finding over decades.

664

: 00:33:29

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

665

: 00:33:30

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

But by and large, , and this is true of

666

: 00:33:32

abortion too, the way that you portray an

issue in terms of the way that you word

667

: 00:33:38

the question, the context that you choose

to omit versus provide the framing, the

668

: 00:33:44

high profile messengers who do or don't go

to bat for that issue, all of that deeply

669

: 00:33:49

influences the popularity of an issue.

670

: 00:33:53

And then interacting with that

is what's actually happening

671

: 00:33:56

on that issue in real time.

672

: 00:33:58

So immigration is a great example of that.

673

: 00:34:00

Trump was partially swept into office

based on his ideas around immigration and

674

: 00:34:08

how he integrated those ideas into his

economic message by basically conveying

675

: 00:34:14

to people the reason why you are not

doing well economically or as well as you

676

: 00:34:19

should be doing, is because of immigrants.

677

: 00:34:21

It is because of other people who are

taking something that should be yours.

678

: 00:34:26

They shouldn't be here, they

shouldn't have access to what should

679

: 00:34:30

be yours, and I'm gonna fix all of

that for you so that you prosper.

680

: 00:34:34

There was a real interplay between

his economic message and his

681

: 00:34:40

incredibly xenophobic agenda.

682

: 00:34:42

For some people that

was very, , compelling.

683

: 00:34:45

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

684

: 00:34:46

But

685

: 00:34:46

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

If you take a look at what's

686

: 00:34:47

actually happening now,, there is no

connection between the two issues.

687

: 00:34:50

People are not doing any better

financially, and innocent people

688

: 00:34:53

are being disappeared off the

streets, lives are being ruined.

689

: 00:34:56

We are being treated to horrific

visual displays of violence a

690

: 00:35:02

police state, things that are

almost universally unpopular.

691

: 00:35:08

So that's another sort of flaw in the

concept of what's popular or not popular

692

: 00:35:12

in the way that we have been talking about

it and the way that media tends to cover

693

: 00:35:16

it, which is, well, you know, Trump's

agenda on immigration is, was popular.

694

: 00:35:23

Why isn't it popular now?

695

: 00:35:24

The context is completely different.

696

: 00:35:27

And when people are abstractly

responding to a poll question

697

: 00:35:30

about whether they think we should

have higher or lower immigration.

698

: 00:35:34

Has virtually nothing to do with

how they respond to ice disappearing

699

: 00:35:38

innocent people off of the

streets in their neighborhoods.

700

: 00:35:41

They have nothing to do with each other.

701

: 00:35:44

And that has everything to do

with the fact that we process

702

: 00:35:46

information in some biased ways.

703

: 00:35:48

We exceptionalize specific people and

we other, under certain circumstances.

704

: 00:35:54

It, it's, it is just so much more

complicated than this idea of, you

705

: 00:35:57

know, I think immigration is a,

is a, just a flaw in the system.

706

: 00:36:00

And I voted for the guy who was

going to course correct it, and

707

: 00:36:03

I sort of give him free reign

to go about that as he sees fit.

708

: 00:36:06

That is not how it works.

709

: 00:36:08

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

so

710

: 00:36:09

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

That public opinion can be thermostatic,

711

: 00:36:11

it can be responsive to who's in power,

but it can also just fundamentally shift

712

: 00:36:16

as a function of context and framing.

713

: 00:36:20

So yeah, I would say in some ways we're

definitely asking the wrong questions.

714

: 00:36:24

One of those wrong questions, I

would say is, is something popular?

715

: 00:36:27

I think that's just the wrong frame.

716

: 00:36:29

It's not that we shouldn't

care about how things pull.

717

: 00:36:32

Or how the public perceives things.

718

: 00:36:34

We absolutely should now more than ever.

719

: 00:36:36

But that's not the right question to ask

if that's what you're trying to learn.

720

: 00:36:40

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

yeah, so I wound up getting into a bit of

721

: 00:36:42

a back and forth yesterday with Laha Jain.

722

: 00:36:44

. Who has come on the show, , and

you know, is a perfectly nice guy.

723

: 00:36:48

, But he was posting about a piece

that Jerusalem Duns had written

724

: 00:36:53

for the argument about, , that

I will un charitably right now.

725

: 00:36:56

, Characterize as get in ladies,

it's time to be optimistic about

726

: 00:37:00

progress as if like we are not,

and also like op optimism really.

727

: 00:37:06

Have you looked out a window lately?

728

: 00:37:08

, the piece was sort of looking

at, it, highlighted a couple

729

: 00:37:10

of specific questions.

730

: 00:37:11

One was about, . Self-driving cars.

731

: 00:37:14

One was about nuclear power and it

demonstrated this gender gap in approval

732

: 00:37:19

of either of these technologies.

733

: 00:37:20

And now neither one of them

were the same question.

734

: 00:37:24

One was like, would you, ban

or permit self-driving cars?

735

: 00:37:30

And another one was just sort of like

how, you know, do, do you approve

736

: 00:37:33

of or disapprove of nuclear power?

737

: 00:37:35

And there, there is demonstrably

a gender gap between those things.

738

: 00:37:39

There are also, interestingly

enough regional variations on

739

: 00:37:42

those things and a variety of

other variations on those things.

740

: 00:37:44

And my argument was not actually

about the poll question results.

741

: 00:37:50

My argument was like the greater

characterization of this was that if

742

: 00:37:55

women are more likely to want to regulate

these technologies or are more concerned

743

: 00:37:59

about the safety of these things or more

kind of skeptical of them, that therefore

744

: 00:38:04

in Desus is kind of construction of

this, they are skeptical of progress.

745

: 00:38:08

Yeah.

746

: 00:38:09

And like that is very odd to me.

747

: 00:38:12

I just did a 125 person study where we

interviewed all of these people about

748

: 00:38:17

how they use AI mode in Google search.

749

: 00:38:20

And like, here's an interesting finding.

750

: 00:38:23

Middle-aged women love them.

751

: 00:38:24

Some voice activated AI mode search.

752

: 00:38:28

They love talking to the Google app.

753

: 00:38:29

And like, so tell me, are they, are they

techno pessimists or techno optimists?

754

: 00:38:35

, You know, we saw this years ago in like

the video game industry where it was

755

: 00:38:39

like, well, men are gamers except that

when you look at casual games, mobile

756

: 00:38:42

games, , mostly women are playing those.

757

: 00:38:45

And actually quite a few women are

playing the other kinds of games too.

758

: 00:38:49

It's just like anytime it's like 60

40, then it all, it only men do a

759

: 00:38:54

thing, um, every time it's like 55, 45.

760

: 00:38:57

Well, it's a male audience and it's like

you are just ignoring a whole lot of

761

: 00:39:01

money and customers when you do that.

762

: 00:39:03

But it's also just a poor characterization

of things and so, you know, part of what

763

: 00:39:07

I've responded to is like, first of all,

you are asserting that technology has

764

: 00:39:10

been a net good for women's productivity,

free time, happiness, et cetera.

765

: 00:39:14

When there is actually like whole books

written about how that is not true, that

766

: 00:39:17

the advent of household technologies have

freed you up from the drudgery of doing

767

: 00:39:22

laundry by hand and created new drudgery

for you to fill that time with because it

768

: 00:39:27

shifts the goalposts on what cleanliness

is and it enables you to own more

769

: 00:39:31

clothes that then have to be wandered.

770

: 00:39:33

And so you're doing more loads

of laundry than you ever did

771

: 00:39:35

when you had to do them by hand.

772

: 00:39:37

Like there's just like genuine

documented stuff about.

773

: 00:39:41

How that didn't have the effect

that it was supposed to have.

774

: 00:39:43

It also hasn't closed the pay gap.

775

: 00:39:45

It hasn't reduced the work week.

776

: 00:39:47

It hasn't made, uh, family leave paid

or more culturally acceptable at work.

777

: 00:39:52

We have all of these tools for

remote work, but it's return to

778

: 00:39:54

office or else, and like, so come on.

779

: 00:39:57

Has it, has it significantly improved

our lives and now, like there's a lot

780

: 00:40:00

of technology coming online that's

gonna threaten lots of people's jobs.

781

: 00:40:04

I mean, some very large proportion of men

in this country make their living driving.

782

: 00:40:09

And if you get to self-driving

cars, self-driving trucks, like

783

: 00:40:12

they're going to be out of work.

784

: 00:40:13

There are a lot of jobs that are

administrative and assistive and, , you

785

: 00:40:18

know, very much about like, writing

things that aren't really that important.

786

: 00:40:23

, And those jobs are gonna

go to AI in the short term.

787

: 00:40:25

They will swing back because the

AI's not very good at doing them.

788

: 00:40:29

But those are women's jobs a lot

of the time and they're entry

789

: 00:40:31

level jobs a lot of the time.

790

: 00:40:32

So I, I, you know, even if I wanted

to accept your framing as true that

791

: 00:40:37

women are not as techno optimistic as

men are, , there might be some good

792

: 00:40:41

cultural context for that that doesn't

have to do specifically with, like,

793

: 00:40:43

it's not caused by being a woman.

794

: 00:40:46

Exactly.

795

: 00:40:46

It's caused by the, the kind of

cultural construction of being a woman.

796

: 00:40:50

And so it's not like there's

some biological fact about women

797

: 00:40:53

that makes them techno skeptical.

798

: 00:40:55

, It's also just not true.

799

: 00:40:56

Women adopt technology.

800

: 00:40:58

They don't adopt all

the same technologies.

801

: 00:41:00

The other side of this, of course,

is like, why are men optimistic

802

: 00:41:02

about self-driving cars and space

and gene editing and whatever?

803

: 00:41:05

Like, because they're investing in it.

804

: 00:41:07

Because they, they use their

STEMI checks to buy crypto.

805

: 00:41:10

And if a young mother, you know,

used her STEMI check to buy

806

: 00:41:14

crypto, she'd be frowned upon.

807

: 00:41:16

She should have used that to pay

down a credit card or to put food

808

: 00:41:18

on the table or to buy her kids

a pair of shoes, or pay rent.

809

: 00:41:21

Like that's what that was for.

810

: 00:41:23

And it's just very different.

811

: 00:41:24

Like these things are very socially

constructed, uh, constructed differently.

812

: 00:41:27

But even this makes me think about

like, what is the, what are people

813

: 00:41:31

bringing to that question about

popular or approval or, I like it.

814

: 00:41:35

I don't like it like.

815

: 00:41:37

Like it In what way?

816

: 00:41:38

Like it, 'cause I, I like using it or like

it, because I think it's generally good

817

: 00:41:42

for society or I think it's good for my

community or, , I'm like, I don't like it.

818

: 00:41:47

'cause I'm, I mean, I have yet

to sit in a self-driving car.

819

: 00:41:51

There aren't any out here where

I live and they're not really

820

: 00:41:54

available yet in New York City.

821

: 00:41:55

They're coming online, but, I haven't

ridden in a Waymo or whatever they are.

822

: 00:41:59

So I don't have this experience.

823

: 00:42:01

I'm still a little skied by it.

824

: 00:42:02

Not sure I like the idea very much.

825

: 00:42:05

Other people seem to love it, whatever.

826

: 00:42:08

But like what are you bringing to

it when you answer that question?

827

: 00:42:11

And this came up literally right

before we got on here today.

828

: 00:42:15

, Matt Novak was writing about these

people who have been losing ridiculous

829

: 00:42:19

amounts of money to crypto scams that

they think are coming from Elon Musk.

830

: 00:42:24

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

God.

831

: 00:42:24

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

So like a Florida guy lost $41,000

832

: 00:42:27

to his crypto scam that used Elon

Musk's face because he thought.

833

: 00:42:32

He was, he thought he was giving

money to his hero, Elon Musk.

834

: 00:42:36

There's also a story about a woman

in her seventies who lost $65,000

835

: 00:42:40

and, , she understood that she had

been scammed, but she thought she had

836

: 00:42:45

been scammed by the real Elon Musk.

837

: 00:42:47

, So didn't even understand that it wasn't,

and it wasn't any, it's a fake Bitcoin.

838

: 00:42:51

And she writes in this, in this comment

like, I'm begging you pretty all caps,

839

: 00:42:55

I'm begging you pretty pleased to help

me recover the money that he scammed me.

840

: 00:42:58

He is a billionaire so he can

afford to give it back to me.

841

: 00:43:01

I didn't mind when he made me fall in love

with him, but the money is very important

842

: 00:43:04

to me as I need it for my dental implant

surgery like this to me is both, and I,

843

: 00:43:10

you know, I reposted this and said this,

like, as a researcher, this is terrible.

844

: 00:43:13

And it's wonderful because it really

shows like people have some idea of

845

: 00:43:17

how things are supposed to work that

they bring to these interactions and.

846

: 00:43:23

It doesn't occur to them

that they're being scammed.

847

: 00:43:26

And then if they've clock that

they've been scammed, it doesn't

848

: 00:43:29

occur to them that they're being

scammed by a, you know, some, somebody

849

: 00:43:32

that's not who they say they are.

850

: 00:43:34

Right.

851

: 00:43:34

And then it doesn't occur

to them that they can't have

852

: 00:43:36

the money returned to them.

853

: 00:43:37

Like he's a billionaire.

854

: 00:43:39

He can afford to give it back to me.

855

: 00:43:40

She has a model in her mind

of how this ought to work, and

856

: 00:43:44

none of it worked that way.

857

: 00:43:46

And like if you don't understand the

model they're bringing into this question,

858

: 00:43:51

then, then I don't know, like what

we're even measuring here are, are men

859

: 00:43:55

optimistic about these technologies?

860

: 00:43:56

'cause they think, they'll get rich

off of them, or because they're just

861

: 00:43:59

generally like on board with cool stuff.

862

: 00:44:02

, and then what is the connection

between liking a particular technology

863

: 00:44:05

and being optimistic about progress?

864

: 00:44:07

Like those are totally separate

questions and concepts, and yet

865

: 00:44:11

we're conflating all of them.

866

: 00:44:12

We really need more understanding

people's mental models about things.

867

: 00:44:16

And I'm glad that you brought up the

immigration stuff because, the wonderful

868

: 00:44:19

people over the bulwark, , have been doing

live events lately where Sarah Longwell

869

: 00:44:23

talks about like, look, it is broadly that

the immigration stuff, mass deportations

870

: 00:44:26

broadly popular in the country.

871

: 00:44:29

And I'm like, except they're not.

872

: 00:44:31

Like they kind of are in the

abstract and not in the concrete.

873

: 00:44:34

Which of course made me think of,

you know, work you've done on, on

874

: 00:44:38

abortion and other things where like

when you actually dig underneath

875

: 00:44:41

like specific circumstances, all of

a sudden it's like, oh no, no, it

876

: 00:44:44

should be legal there, it should be

legal here, it should be legal here.

877

: 00:44:47

Like all of a sudden it's, it's, it

should be legal in most instances,

878

: 00:44:51

in which case it should be legal.

879

: 00:44:53

And then when people actually have

the right taken away, suddenly

880

: 00:44:55

people are like on second thought.

881

: 00:44:57

I am in favor of abortion rights and,

but like in the abstract, it's icky and

882

: 00:45:03

the abstract, it runs contrary to my

moral ideals or my religious beliefs.

883

: 00:45:08

And so when you're just asking

me in the abstract, if it doesn't

884

: 00:45:11

really feel under threat to me,

then I'll tell you I don't like it.

885

: 00:45:14

And so this popularity thing is,

I think you're absolutely right.

886

: 00:45:17

It's like if there was a question

I would slingshot into the sun,

887

: 00:45:21

it would probably be that one.

888

: 00:45:22

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Yeah.

889

: 00:45:23

Yeah.

890

: 00:45:24

I mean, and it's not to do away with the

concept of caring about what people think.

891

: 00:45:28

That's, that's not at

all what I'm trying to

892

: 00:45:30

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yeah.

893

: 00:45:30

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

It's just to your, to your point

894

: 00:45:32

and your, your perfect example.

895

: 00:45:34

Sometimes that question does a

really poor job of answering the

896

: 00:45:39

question we actually care about.

897

: 00:45:40

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yeah.

898

: 00:45:41

, riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I, and I'm reminded again of, of something

899

: 00:45:43

that Taana Hassi Coates mentioned in

that EZ Recline interview towards the

900

: 00:45:46

end, where he sort of, , made reference

to a friend of his, , who said something

901

: 00:45:50

to the effect of like, you know.

902

: 00:45:51

Throughout American history.

903

: 00:45:53

If we, if we situate ourselves where

we are right now, this is the best

904

: 00:45:56

group of white people we have ever had.

905

: 00:45:58

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yes.

906

: 00:45:59

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Like, this is the best we've ever done.

907

: 00:46:01

This is the best it's ever been.

908

: 00:46:02

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yep.

909

: 00:46:03

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Of course that is not to suggest

910

: 00:46:04

that it can't be meaningfully

better, but when we situate it in

911

: 00:46:08

history, it's the best we've had.

912

: 00:46:11

That was what kept coming to mind when you

were talking about this idea of optimism

913

: 00:46:15

because it's, it's a perfect example

of what we miss when we ask a surface

914

: 00:46:18

level question in a poll and we don't

follow up and we don't dig any deeper

915

: 00:46:21

and we don't try to understand the why.

916

: 00:46:23

Is it, it just reminds me of that

question of, you know, are, are

917

: 00:46:26

things going in the right direction

or are they off on the wrong track?

918

: 00:46:29

Well, what does that mean?

919

: 00:46:30

What do we really mean when we ask

that, you know, it are white people

920

: 00:46:34

in this country as situated in our

long history, going in the right

921

: 00:46:38

direction or off on the wrong track?

922

: 00:46:40

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yeah.

923

: 00:46:41

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I, I probably going in the right

924

: 00:46:43

direction all things considered,

that doesn't mean it's good enough.

925

: 00:46:46

That doesn't necessarily mean that I would

say that I'm super optimistic about what

926

: 00:46:49

the next five or 10 years look like, but

if you're asking me to think about it in

927

: 00:46:53

the long arc of history, better than it's

ever been before, that, that probably

928

: 00:46:58

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yep.

929

: 00:46:59

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

And so I would say going

930

: 00:47:00

in the right direction.

931

: 00:47:01

, But, you know, I think it, it's sort of

in, I think it's incumbent on everybody

932

: 00:47:05

who does public opinion research of any

kind, to sort of sometimes pause and

933

: 00:47:08

evaluate the questions that we ask and

ask ourselves how we would answer them.

934

: 00:47:12

Because sometimes I think I've

written a question that is, you know,

935

: 00:47:15

straightforward and easy to answer, or

I'm just, I use the right direction,

936

: 00:47:18

wrong track question, don't get me wrong.

937

: 00:47:20

, It has utility.

938

: 00:47:22

It just requires a follow up.

939

: 00:47:23

And sometimes I think about what kind of

follow up question I would need or, or

940

: 00:47:27

the, into which I might write a question

and think that I'm, I've covered all

941

: 00:47:30

my bases, and then I look at it and I

think, well, if I wanted to answer this

942

: 00:47:32

question, I feel like I would want a text

box, because none of this quite captures

943

: 00:47:36

my sort of constellation of snowflakes

944

: 00:47:38

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yeah.

945

: 00:47:39

And I

946

: 00:47:39

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

terms of how I would answer this.

947

: 00:47:40

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Totally, and I, and I think that this

948

: 00:47:41

is one of the, one of the challenges, I

mean, obviously I, look, I'm always gonna

949

: 00:47:45

come to this conversation with the bias

of the qualitative researcher who gets to

950

: 00:47:48

spend 45 minutes talking to people about

their favorite soda flavors or whatever.

951

: 00:47:51

But like, my frustration with the

thing in the argument was you're

952

: 00:47:54

taking two questions that yes.

953

: 00:47:56

Demonstrate some sort of gender gap.

954

: 00:47:58

You are extrapolating from that, a

universe of meaning that is just not

955

: 00:48:01

evident in the evidence you're presenting.

956

: 00:48:04

So, no, actually I'm not, I am not

disagreeing with you about what the

957

: 00:48:07

data is and even what it nominally says.

958

: 00:48:10

But I am, I am disagreeing

with how you interpret it.

959

: 00:48:12

I, I think like you are leaving a

whole lot of stuff off to the side

960

: 00:48:16

that can't be left off to the side.

961

: 00:48:17

And when we ask those kinds of

questions, , I think we're just leaving

962

: 00:48:21

a whole lot of things off to the side.

963

: 00:48:22

And even like.

964

: 00:48:23

You know, the discourse around what

were people so upset about in: 2024

965

: 00:48:26

The economy was doing great, inflation

was slowing jobs, numbers were,

966

: 00:48:30

you know, looked like they were

really good and you know, sure.

967

: 00:48:34

Except that I will just tell you that

like lots of people I talked to last year

968

: 00:48:39

felt like the job market was terrible.

969

: 00:48:41

Our business was as

down as it's ever been.

970

: 00:48:44

And like it was a slog

getting through last year.

971

: 00:48:47

It has been a slog

getting through this year.

972

: 00:48:49

I was talking to the electrician earlier

today and he said the same thing.

973

: 00:48:52

He was like, across the trades out

here, the spring and summer were really

974

: 00:48:56

slow to the point where people were

freaking out and then like August

975

: 00:49:00

1st hit and all of a sudden everybody

wanted to have something fixed.

976

: 00:49:04

And like, why?

977

: 00:49:05

I don't know.

978

: 00:49:06

But we had the exact same

pattern in our business.

979

: 00:49:08

And so if you're asking me.

980

: 00:49:10

How's the economy?

981

: 00:49:12

Like we, you know, we still own our house.

982

: 00:49:15

We still could afford all of our bills.

983

: 00:49:17

You know, my, my husband is still

gainfully employed in a, in a actual job.

984

: 00:49:21

And, , and I'm still working,

but it doesn't feel great.

985

: 00:49:24

Like, it, it, it doesn't feel great.

986

: 00:49:26

And so, you know, do you want to now

TT at me and say, well, you're wrong

987

: 00:49:29

because look at all these economic data,

or do we wanna admit that like we are

988

: 00:49:34

living in a country that increasingly

has, what my friend Ferris Jacob calls

989

: 00:49:38

me is diverging economic destinies that

like if you were born rich or you managed

990

: 00:49:42

to gamble and win, then you are in a

different group of people then if you

991

: 00:49:47

work for a living in any kind of job.

992

: 00:49:49

And I don't even mean like blue

collar jobs, I just mean people

993

: 00:49:51

who are dependent on paychecks or

money for work in order to live.

994

: 00:49:56

You're living in a different

universe than the people who.

995

: 00:49:59

You know, struck big on crypto

or we're born with a trust fund.

996

: 00:50:03

And so like all of these

things are just not the same.

997

: 00:50:06

Which makes me wonder actually, 'cause

you also wanted to talk about the kind of

998

: 00:50:09

subject of Thermostatic public opinion,

which is one of my, , favorite topics too.

999

: 00:50:13

But I wonder like, are we even really

thinking about that the right way?

: 1000

00:50:16,798 --> 00:50:19,588

'cause I think like the kind of pop

culture construction of thermostatic,

: 1001

00:50:19,638 --> 00:50:22,728

, public opinion, to the extent

there's a pop culture construction of

: 1002

00:50:22,728 --> 00:50:26,388

thermostatic public opinion, but, you

know, amongst the commonary is like,

: 1003

00:50:26,598 --> 00:50:29,578

well, , you know, the Republicans won

this time, so next time the Democrats

: 1004

00:50:29,578 --> 00:50:31,738

will win and then the Republicans will

win and then the Democrats will win.

: 1005

00:50:31,738 --> 00:50:33,118

And we're just gonna kind

of go back and forth.

: 1006

00:50:33,478 --> 00:50:35,998

But I, but like, hmm.

: 1007

00:50:36,298 --> 00:50:41,578

Is it more like you place a bet

you, you win or you lose and now

: 1008

00:50:41,578 --> 00:50:44,758

you feel differently about the bet

you placed in the first instance?

: 1009

00:50:45,148 --> 00:50:46,888

, Like, is it just missing this like.

: 1010

00:50:47,288 --> 00:50:50,198

There they're responding to

something other than just sort

: 1011

00:50:50,198 --> 00:50:52,118

of a general dissatisfaction.

: 1012

00:50:52,688 --> 00:50:55,958

I don't know, I, is it even right

to call it thermostatic or what

: 1013

00:50:55,958 --> 00:50:57,218

is the thermostat measuring?

: 1014

00:50:57,618 --> 00:50:58,008

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Right.

: 1015

00:50:58,503 --> 00:50:58,923

I mean,

: 1016

00:50:59,323 --> 00:50:59,673

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

think

: 1017

00:51:00,108 --> 00:51:01,188

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

a few things.

: 1018

00:51:01,588 --> 00:51:07,625

I'm just generally never of the opinion

that passivity is, , the right strategy

: 1019

00:51:07,715 --> 00:51:09,575

or the most logical explanation.

: 1020

00:51:10,235 --> 00:51:14,445

So I would not want folks to interpret

thermostatic public opinion as a

: 1021

00:51:14,445 --> 00:51:19,615

concept to mean that there's something

deterministic about the idea that, well,

: 1022

00:51:19,645 --> 00:51:22,855

that party won last time, so this party's

gonna win this time, and therefore I don't

: 1023

00:51:22,855 --> 00:51:25,105

need to do anything or change anything.

: 1024

00:51:25,375 --> 00:51:29,455

I just need to sort of let the public

view how this is going and allow

: 1025

00:51:29,725 --> 00:51:31,105

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

The James Carville case?

: 1026

00:51:31,105 --> 00:51:31,525

Yes.

: 1027

00:51:31,530 --> 00:51:31,645

The,

: 1028

00:51:31,675 --> 00:51:31,915

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

right?

: 1029

00:51:31,915 --> 00:51:35,305

I need to just allow the people in

power to like, make their own bed.

: 1030

00:51:35,335 --> 00:51:35,515

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

yeah.

: 1031

00:51:35,515 --> 00:51:35,755

Play

: 1032

00:51:35,785 --> 00:51:37,375

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

then I can just, you know, yeah, I'll,

: 1033

00:51:37,435 --> 00:51:42,605

I'll just, you know, I'll, I'll ride

the, the inevitable wave back into

: 1034

00:51:42,605 --> 00:51:44,675

power when people see how this is going.

: 1035

00:51:45,425 --> 00:51:49,365

I don't subscribe to that at all, and I, I

don't think that that's what's happening.

: 1036

00:51:49,765 --> 00:51:50,065

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

You know,

: 1037

00:51:50,270 --> 00:51:52,430

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I think a lot of what we might

: 1038

00:51:52,430 --> 00:51:55,580

refer to as thermostatic public

opinion is just a, a context

: 1039

00:51:55,835 --> 00:51:56,255

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

mm-hmm.

: 1040

00:51:56,720 --> 00:51:58,190

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

You know, what was the context

: 1041

00:51:58,190 --> 00:52:01,520

for evaluating immigration in

: 2024

: 1042

00:52:01,550 --> 00:52:02,870

It's a fundamentally different landscape.

: 1043

00:52:03,270 --> 00:52:05,340

It just, it means something different.

: 1044

00:52:05,610 --> 00:52:11,140

So it's not, I don't think we're

necessarily observing that There's a

: 1045

00:52:11,140 --> 00:52:13,960

ton of like, attitude change happening.

: 1046

00:52:14,125 --> 00:52:17,215

I think it's more,

well, I don't like this.

: 1047

00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:17,820

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

mm-hmm.

: 1048

00:52:18,205 --> 00:52:19,135

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I had a different idea

: 1049

00:52:19,135 --> 00:52:20,125

of how it was going to be

: 1050

00:52:20,245 --> 00:52:20,485

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yep.

: 1051

00:52:20,885 --> 00:52:22,085

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

and I don't like how it's going.

: 1052

00:52:22,531 --> 00:52:25,771

, we have to appreciate a lot of nuance

and we have to generally be a lot more

: 1053

00:52:25,771 --> 00:52:29,911

proactive than to just sort of passively

say public opinion will self-correct.

: 1054

00:52:30,311 --> 00:52:35,741

That said, I do think in a hyper

divided, hyper hyperpolarized climate,

: 1055

00:52:36,141 --> 00:52:40,401

I think there is a little bit of

inevitability to the idea of, you know.

: 1056

00:52:41,061 --> 00:52:42,531

One party can only stay in power for so

: 1057

00:52:42,946 --> 00:52:43,366

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

: 1058

00:52:43,611 --> 00:52:45,321

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I worry that that is the case.

: 1059

00:52:45,391 --> 00:52:50,821

, I mean, I think we have a fairly

unusual streak happening now

: 1060

00:52:50,881 --> 00:52:53,941

of like one term presidencies.

: 1061

00:52:54,031 --> 00:52:54,121

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

mm-hmm.

: 1062

00:52:54,511 --> 00:52:56,161

, riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

historically most presidents I

: 1063

00:52:56,191 --> 00:52:57,721

think have have won second terms.

: 1064

00:52:57,871 --> 00:52:58,171

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

yeah.

: 1065

00:52:58,511 --> 00:53:00,191

, riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

It's too early to know how, how

: 1066

00:53:00,191 --> 00:53:01,511

much this is a trend or blip.

: 1067

00:53:01,931 --> 00:53:06,251

But I do wonder and worry that one of

the consequences of a highly polarized

: 1068

00:53:06,251 --> 00:53:09,491

electorate is that we're just gonna

bounce back and forth repeatedly

: 1069

00:53:09,971 --> 00:53:12,991

without, , much long-term consistency.

: 1070

00:53:13,291 --> 00:53:17,701

I should qualify that by saying, it's

not like I want to give the people

: 1071

00:53:17,701 --> 00:53:20,401

currently in power, the old college,

try and say, give 'em two terms.

: 1072

00:53:20,401 --> 00:53:21,241

It's gonna be fine.

: 1073

00:53:21,241 --> 00:53:22,081

Like, of course I am

: 1074

00:53:22,481 --> 00:53:23,151

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Completely.

: 1075

00:53:23,181 --> 00:53:24,531

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

pot committed on making this.

: 1076

00:53:25,311 --> 00:53:29,451

A, a one term Republican, , situation,

and then ideally taking back power

: 1077

00:53:29,451 --> 00:53:30,501

for as long as we can keep it.

: 1078

00:53:30,501 --> 00:53:33,471

But I, I worry that one of the byproducts

of polarization is that that's gonna

: 1079

00:53:33,471 --> 00:53:35,271

be harder and harder and harder to do.

: 1080

00:53:35,436 --> 00:53:35,796

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

yeah.

: 1081

00:53:36,086 --> 00:53:38,666

That was another interesting

exchange between Asana.

: 1082

00:53:38,666 --> 00:53:40,146

Hasse was like that.

: 1083

00:53:40,146 --> 00:53:41,796

I don't, I don't want it to be close.

: 1084

00:53:41,916 --> 00:53:45,576

And so honestly was just like, I

think it's gonna be close for a while.

: 1085

00:53:45,906 --> 00:53:50,406

The reality of the polarization is

that it's not like, , well, at the

: 1086

00:53:50,406 --> 00:53:55,036

moment it is not like there is, uh, I

mean, this is part of what's, what's

: 1087

00:53:55,036 --> 00:53:59,836

fascinating is that there's a lot of

issues that are actually like 60% issues.

: 1088

00:53:59,956 --> 00:54:06,326

And some of them, and some are more than

that, but some of those issues are not.

: 1089

00:54:06,326 --> 00:54:07,736

When you then look at the like.

: 1090

00:54:08,426 --> 00:54:11,356

Party id, , are not polarized on party id.

: 1091

00:54:11,626 --> 00:54:15,136

A lot of them though are, and so you get

this sort of like, well, 60% of Americans

: 1092

00:54:15,136 --> 00:54:18,406

agree about this, and it's because like

90% of Democrats are on that side and

: 1093

00:54:18,436 --> 00:54:20,656

10% of Republicans are on that side.

: 1094

00:54:20,656 --> 00:54:22,096

And so that gets you to your 60%.

: 1095

00:54:22,876 --> 00:54:27,693

, But as long as that divide is so

clearly demarcated, like whenever

: 1096

00:54:27,693 --> 00:54:31,773

something becomes coded as right or

left, then people who identify as

: 1097

00:54:31,773 --> 00:54:33,693

right or left know what side to take.

: 1098

00:54:33,998 --> 00:54:34,348

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Right.

: 1099

00:54:34,693 --> 00:54:36,103

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

I think this is one of the things

: 1100

00:54:36,103 --> 00:54:40,543

that, , frankly, the MAGA people, the

Republicans, the Tea Party, all of the

: 1101

00:54:40,543 --> 00:54:44,863

kind of iterations of conservatism have

just been better at like conscientiously

: 1102

00:54:44,863 --> 00:54:47,163

doing, we are going to say.

: 1103

00:54:47,958 --> 00:54:49,338

Vaccines are liberal.

: 1104

00:54:49,738 --> 00:54:53,808

We are going to say that, you

know, , being against fascism

: 1105

00:54:53,808 --> 00:54:55,428

is lefty and therefore bad.

: 1106

00:54:55,878 --> 00:54:59,538

And like, I mean, that, that is the thing

that above everything else that has been

: 1107

00:54:59,538 --> 00:55:03,618

driving me crazy over the last couple of

weeks is these media conversations where

: 1108

00:55:03,618 --> 00:55:08,178

it's like, but how do you feel about,

you know, these, these anti-fascists?

: 1109

00:55:08,178 --> 00:55:12,198

And it's like, good, feel pretty

good about people who oppose fascism.

: 1110

00:55:12,378 --> 00:55:14,238

I too oppose fascism.

: 1111

00:55:14,418 --> 00:55:18,168

Like that would be, if Pi Morgan

asked me that question, I'd be like,

: 1112

00:55:18,258 --> 00:55:19,908

thumbs up for the anti-fascists.

: 1113

00:55:19,913 --> 00:55:22,413

Like, , like I'm on side for all of that.

: 1114

00:55:22,633 --> 00:55:26,623

But like the, that is something

that they're very, very good at.

: 1115

00:55:26,683 --> 00:55:27,313

And I think the.

: 1116

00:55:27,713 --> 00:55:31,793

Frankly, the last 30 years

of the Democratic response to

: 1117

00:55:31,793 --> 00:55:35,033

that has been to apologize.

: 1118

00:55:35,433 --> 00:55:36,183

Oh, I'm sorry.

: 1119

00:55:36,393 --> 00:55:38,883

I, I, we, we were offending real America.

: 1120

00:55:38,943 --> 00:55:41,313

And then also well, how

do we meet in the middle?

: 1121

00:55:41,493 --> 00:55:44,613

Like, oh, maybe, maybe because you are

real America and we are obviously not.

: 1122

00:55:44,733 --> 00:55:47,013

We should get closer to

where you are on this.

: 1123

00:55:47,073 --> 00:55:49,533

And of course then they get

closer to where they are on this

: 1124

00:55:49,533 --> 00:55:50,973

and find, oh, that doesn't work.

: 1125

00:55:51,073 --> 00:55:54,583

The as reclined prescription of we should

run pro-life candidates in these states,

: 1126

00:55:54,583 --> 00:56:00,160

or we should run cultural conservatives

in red states in order to win election

: 1127

00:56:00,490 --> 00:56:05,860

feels like conceding something that maybe

that's actually not the move to make.

: 1128

00:56:05,890 --> 00:56:09,790

Maybe the move to make is to

push and to try to push public

: 1129

00:56:09,790 --> 00:56:11,170

opinion while you're at it.

: 1130

00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:13,840

That like instead of chasing

public opinion, you actually

: 1131

00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:14,560

try to leader shape it.

: 1132

00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:17,330

Which I think is what you were saying at

the very beginning of this conversation,

: 1133

00:56:17,675 --> 00:56:19,325

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

100%, yes.

: 1134

00:56:19,535 --> 00:56:21,065

I mean, I think the deference.

: 1135

00:56:21,465 --> 00:56:26,480

Is, , exceptionally frustrating to me

sometimes it feels like conservatives

: 1136

00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:30,230

are just evaluating the world they

have versus the world they want and

: 1137

00:56:30,230 --> 00:56:34,850

responding organically, and that liberals

are looking at the electorate and the

: 1138

00:56:34,850 --> 00:56:36,830

country as like a science experiment.

: 1139

00:56:37,216 --> 00:56:40,576

, I just wanna try to understand, I just

wanna understand them a little bit better.

: 1140

00:56:40,576 --> 00:56:42,286

There's, there's just

an understanding gap.

: 1141

00:56:42,594 --> 00:56:45,864

It's not to say that that's not

necessarily true, but on the

: 1142

00:56:45,864 --> 00:56:51,144

numbers, we are not a minority

liberals, Democrats on the numbers.

: 1143

00:56:51,144 --> 00:56:52,194

We are not a minority.

: 1144

00:56:52,794 --> 00:56:58,744

So let's just start there and then

appreciate the fact that when, when

: 1145

00:56:58,744 --> 00:57:01,114

Trump lost, he said we cheated.

: 1146

00:57:01,199 --> 00:57:01,619

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

: 1147

00:57:01,894 --> 00:57:03,874

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

And when we lose, we try to

: 1148

00:57:03,874 --> 00:57:05,164

extend to the other side.

: 1149

00:57:05,599 --> 00:57:06,709

Understand them better.

: 1150

00:57:07,159 --> 00:57:11,449

I find that an incredibly frustrating

response for several reasons.

: 1151

00:57:11,539 --> 00:57:16,169

One of which is, and to return to

your Ezra Klein example, it feels

: 1152

00:57:16,199 --> 00:57:21,122

like this moment of reevaluation

and capitulation of just like, oh,

: 1153

00:57:21,122 --> 00:57:23,792

I guess they, they didn't wanna buy

what we were selling, so let's, let's

: 1154

00:57:23,792 --> 00:57:25,652

figure out how we sell something else.

: 1155

00:57:26,282 --> 00:57:27,992

I don't wanna sell anything else.

: 1156

00:57:28,392 --> 00:57:32,127

Your, your loyal consumers don't

want you to change the product.

: 1157

00:57:32,907 --> 00:57:36,747

Don't sell something else, especially

if you don't believe in it.

: 1158

00:57:37,224 --> 00:57:40,704

There is such a difference between

trying to appeal to more moderate

: 1159

00:57:40,704 --> 00:57:44,364

people or people who exist outside of

your ecosystem, your media ecosystem,

: 1160

00:57:44,429 --> 00:57:44,749

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

: 1161

00:57:45,149 --> 00:57:51,029

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

and talking to the most extreme, radical,

: 1162

00:57:51,449 --> 00:57:54,989

organized, powerful, possible people.

: 1163

00:57:55,379 --> 00:57:56,849

That is not how you get to the middle.

: 1164

00:57:57,179 --> 00:58:00,389

And I've had to say this to a few

people in my life who sort of, uh,

: 1165

00:58:00,569 --> 00:58:04,179

again, like responded with this sort

of like incredibly sad, I guess this

: 1166

00:58:04,179 --> 00:58:05,379

isn't the country that I thought it was.

: 1167

00:58:05,379 --> 00:58:09,579

I guess most people don't agree with

me response to: 2024

: 1168

00:58:09,579 --> 00:58:12,009

yeah, I mean, I guess, you know, in

order to understand the country a little

: 1169

00:58:12,009 --> 00:58:14,439

bit better, in order to bridge those

divides in order to appeal to more

: 1170

00:58:14,439 --> 00:58:17,589

voters and broaden the tent, we have

to talk to people like Steve Bannon.

: 1171

00:58:17,989 --> 00:58:19,409

Why, why?

: 1172

00:58:19,499 --> 00:58:22,439

And for one thing though, like

people who are actually moderate

: 1173

00:58:22,439 --> 00:58:23,519

don't listen to Steve Bannon.

: 1174

00:58:24,299 --> 00:58:26,339

They don't, they probably don't

listen to politics, period.

: 1175

00:58:26,739 --> 00:58:29,379

Go someplace apolitical

if that's the goal.

: 1176

00:58:29,619 --> 00:58:32,484

But there's this idea of like, I'm

blue, you're red, and if I just

: 1177

00:58:32,504 --> 00:58:33,724

mix 'em, then we'll get purple.

: 1178

00:58:34,164 --> 00:58:34,824

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yes.

: 1179

00:58:35,019 --> 00:58:37,704

I, I think this is, I think this is right,

I was saying this to someone the other

: 1180

00:58:37,704 --> 00:58:41,244

day they were talking to me about wanting

to understand people's kinda engagement

: 1181

00:58:41,244 --> 00:58:44,334

in civic participation and their,

their models of civic participation.

: 1182

00:58:44,334 --> 00:58:48,204

And I have spent a lot of time

researching the concept of civic

: 1183

00:58:48,204 --> 00:58:51,114

participation and the ladder of civic

participation, those things, which

: 1184

00:58:51,114 --> 00:58:52,434

is a conversation for another time.

: 1185

00:58:52,764 --> 00:58:57,174

, But like one of the things that I

think if you want to take at face

: 1186

00:58:57,174 --> 00:59:01,264

value that, , Trump and, and his,

you know, MAGA ilk going on all of

: 1187

00:59:01,264 --> 00:59:07,344

these, , non politics podcasts, , to

reach young men specifically,

: 1188

00:59:07,644 --> 00:59:11,304

. Played, you know, an important

role in his, his victory in: 2024

: 1189

00:59:11,594 --> 00:59:14,564

, , Then a thing you have to understand

is that a lot of people do not

: 1190

00:59:14,564 --> 00:59:19,574

apprehend civic participation or

news through traditional channels.

: 1191

00:59:19,574 --> 00:59:24,224

They are not volunteering in their

community or part of a church group

: 1192

00:59:24,224 --> 00:59:29,234

or, uh, you know, knocking on doors

during elections or whatever they are,

: 1193

00:59:29,264 --> 00:59:32,654

or participating in marches or going

to, you know, town council meetings.

: 1194

00:59:32,954 --> 00:59:37,934

, They are watching streamers on

Twitch and they are listening to

: 1195

00:59:37,934 --> 00:59:39,194

the radio while they're at work.

: 1196

00:59:39,224 --> 00:59:43,044

And they are, , you know,

watching the football like that.

: 1197

00:59:43,044 --> 00:59:48,124

That is, that is where they are

getting their information and, , I

: 1198

00:59:48,124 --> 00:59:48,994

should put information, quotes.

: 1199

00:59:48,994 --> 00:59:49,894

It is in fact information.

: 1200

00:59:49,894 --> 00:59:53,434

It's just, it's not news channels

and yet they are absorbing

: 1201

00:59:53,434 --> 00:59:54,604

news through those things

: 1202

00:59:55,024 --> 00:59:59,534

it may not be how you want it to be

as a highly educated person, but it

: 1203

00:59:59,534 --> 01:00:02,894

is how it is for a lot of people.

: 1204

01:00:03,644 --> 01:00:06,284

You know, my, my, my friend

Nicole spends most of the day,

: 1205

01:00:06,554 --> 01:00:07,904

as she would put it, rub an ass.

: 1206

01:00:07,934 --> 01:00:11,774

Like, she's not listening

to, you know, Adam Toos talk

: 1207

01:00:11,774 --> 01:00:13,514

about economics on a podcast.

: 1208

01:00:13,514 --> 01:00:14,864

Like that's not what she's doing.

: 1209

01:00:14,864 --> 01:00:17,954

And she's a, you know, she has a

college degree, but she has this kind

: 1210

01:00:17,954 --> 01:00:21,314

of service industry, job . And she

has two kids and she's busy and like.

: 1211

01:00:21,689 --> 01:00:26,189

You know, she gets information where

she gets it and it's a random video that

: 1212

01:00:26,189 --> 01:00:27,989

someone shares on her Facebook wall.

: 1213

01:00:28,079 --> 01:00:30,299

And do we even have walls

on Facebook anymore?

: 1214

01:00:30,299 --> 01:00:30,899

I dunno, I left.

: 1215

01:00:30,899 --> 01:00:34,679

But like that, that kind of,

that's, it's ambient, right?

: 1216

01:00:34,679 --> 01:00:37,829

It's just sort of vibes coming

at her and conversation.

: 1217

01:00:37,829 --> 01:00:41,159

She overhears at the reception

desk and stuff for her husband

: 1218

01:00:41,159 --> 01:00:42,719

talks about and stuff her dad says.

: 1219

01:00:42,719 --> 01:00:45,539

And like, that's how

she's getting the news.

: 1220

01:00:45,899 --> 01:00:49,339

And , and frankly, she's not

altogether inclined to watch the news.

: 1221

01:00:49,339 --> 01:00:52,039

Like the thing that she was most excited

about, that she'd watched recently,

: 1222

01:00:52,069 --> 01:00:54,799

last time I talked to her was the

Charlie Sheen documentary on Netflix.

: 1223

01:00:54,799 --> 01:00:57,649

Like, that's, that was the thing

that she was most interested in.

: 1224

01:00:57,709 --> 01:00:59,959

And like, that's the ordinary person.

: 1225

01:01:00,359 --> 01:01:03,029

And so if you want to do

something else, then like.

: 1226

01:01:03,794 --> 01:01:05,144

Skate to the puck, man.

: 1227

01:01:05,204 --> 01:01:09,939

Like, like I just, and, and to your

point, like no brand would do this, right?

: 1228

01:01:09,969 --> 01:01:10,089

No.

: 1229

01:01:10,119 --> 01:01:10,329

No.

: 1230

01:01:10,329 --> 01:01:13,869

Brand would say, well, there's a

whole lot of people who will never

: 1231

01:01:13,869 --> 01:01:16,899

buy our product and so I guess we

better stop making our product.

: 1232

01:01:17,109 --> 01:01:20,559

Like, instead you go, well, we've

got this group of people that are

: 1233

01:01:20,559 --> 01:01:24,429

buying our product pretty, you know,

consistently, and we wanna keep them.

: 1234

01:01:24,954 --> 01:01:27,534

And we might make a new

product for somebody else.

: 1235

01:01:27,534 --> 01:01:30,684

I mean, that's the difference in, in

commercial land is like, you might

: 1236

01:01:30,684 --> 01:01:32,094

make a new product for somebody else.

: 1237

01:01:32,754 --> 01:01:36,654

But I also had a client, you know, two

years ago in, in, , sports apparel.

: 1238

01:01:36,684 --> 01:01:39,944

And we did a audience segmentation

for them you know, a youth segment.

: 1239

01:01:40,004 --> 01:01:43,754

And when we came back to them, we had

like, you know, as you usually do,

: 1240

01:01:43,814 --> 01:01:45,104

somewhere between four and six segments.

: 1241

01:01:45,104 --> 01:01:47,084

I can't remember what they were, but

there was this one group that was

: 1242

01:01:47,084 --> 01:01:50,474

super interesting because they did

not really act like the rest of them.

: 1243

01:01:50,474 --> 01:01:52,664

They looked like the rest

of 'em demographically.

: 1244

01:01:53,084 --> 01:01:54,944

They were a little less college educated.

: 1245

01:01:54,944 --> 01:01:56,954

They were a little more blue collar.

: 1246

01:01:57,224 --> 01:02:00,804

, They were a little bit lower income,

but they were more likely to tell

: 1247

01:02:00,804 --> 01:02:03,654

me that their personal heroes

were people like Jordan Peterson.

: 1248

01:02:03,834 --> 01:02:08,663

And they were more likely to express

kind of prepper tendencies, I would say.

: 1249

01:02:08,754 --> 01:02:12,894

And so they read just like,

not hyperpartisan, but like low

: 1250

01:02:12,924 --> 01:02:14,454

key, culturally conservative.

: 1251

01:02:14,814 --> 01:02:17,694

And it kind of low key

pessimistic about the future.

: 1252

01:02:18,384 --> 01:02:21,964

And , and we presented all these segments

and said, and and there's this interesting

: 1253

01:02:21,964 --> 01:02:25,924

group, they're not a small group, but

I don't know how you feel about this.

: 1254

01:02:25,984 --> 01:02:30,614

And they kind of went, well, they buy

our stuff, but we don't design for them.

: 1255

01:02:31,014 --> 01:02:32,514

We design for these other groups.

: 1256

01:02:32,934 --> 01:02:35,934

And so we're not gonna do anything to

like, say to them, we don't like you

: 1257

01:02:35,934 --> 01:02:38,004

and we don't want you, but we're not

gonna do anything special for them

: 1258

01:02:38,004 --> 01:02:42,594

either, because that would distract us

from what we're doing over here with

: 1259

01:02:42,594 --> 01:02:45,444

this much larger set of people that

have more in common with one another.

: 1260

01:02:45,564 --> 01:02:47,484

And like, this is just

a decision you make.

: 1261

01:02:47,574 --> 01:02:50,634

It's not a I'm writing

you off, you're out.

: 1262

01:02:51,034 --> 01:02:54,604

It's a look, you either like what we're

selling or we don't, but we're not gonna

: 1263

01:02:54,634 --> 01:03:00,274

go out of our way to cater to you because

we have to serve this group of people.

: 1264

01:03:00,674 --> 01:03:02,894

, Or we believe in this set

of values or we design our

: 1265

01:03:02,894 --> 01:03:04,244

products in this particular way.

: 1266

01:03:04,454 --> 01:03:08,779

And so I like, this is why I find

the like, well, I guess we're gonna

: 1267

01:03:08,784 --> 01:03:12,444

have to throw a whole bunch of people

overboard in order to get these people

: 1268

01:03:12,444 --> 01:03:14,484

that don't vote for us to vote for us.

: 1269

01:03:14,604 --> 01:03:16,314

And my reaction to that is

like, well, why not just say

: 1270

01:03:16,314 --> 01:03:17,904

that you're a Republican Ezra?

: 1271

01:03:17,964 --> 01:03:21,572

Like if, if you feel like what is

happening here is that Republicans

: 1272

01:03:21,572 --> 01:03:24,152

are winning and Democrats are losing

and you wanna be on the winning

: 1273

01:03:24,152 --> 01:03:25,892

team, you could just do that.

: 1274

01:03:25,922 --> 01:03:27,092

You could just switch.

: 1275

01:03:27,259 --> 01:03:28,069

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

And well, and that's where I

: 1276

01:03:28,069 --> 01:03:31,069

get stuck too, because it, you

know, and he references the

: 1277

01:03:31,069 --> 01:03:32,509

fact that politics is for power.

: 1278

01:03:32,509 --> 01:03:35,479

So my response to this idea of we

should run pro-life candidates in

: 1279

01:03:35,479 --> 01:03:39,288

red areas, I mean, putting aside your

important factual correction, that

: 1280

01:03:39,288 --> 01:03:41,149

that's not even a recipe for success.

: 1281

01:03:41,549 --> 01:03:42,089

Why?

: 1282

01:03:42,299 --> 01:03:45,239

I mean, I, what I couldn't quite grasp

in that, in that interview is whether he

: 1283

01:03:45,239 --> 01:03:48,659

was advocating something of like a Trojan

horse, you know, like a sort of Brett

: 1284

01:03:48,659 --> 01:03:52,169

Kavanaugh in his, in his confirmation

hearing saying, you know, I respect

: 1285

01:03:52,169 --> 01:03:54,419

precedent and like, wink, wink, nod, nod.

: 1286

01:03:54,479 --> 01:03:56,159

We all knew what he would do.

: 1287

01:03:56,769 --> 01:03:59,079

, But he sort of played the game and,

and said what was necessary to say.

: 1288

01:03:59,079 --> 01:04:02,829

I couldn't quite tell if it was sort of

like a, a, an operative strategy that he

: 1289

01:04:02,829 --> 01:04:06,729

was recommending this idea of like, you

know, somebody that at the end of the

: 1290

01:04:06,729 --> 01:04:10,479

day is gonna vote with us on abortion as

well as on every other important agenda

: 1291

01:04:10,479 --> 01:04:14,619

item, but they're just sort of willing

to Trojan Horse their way into office.

: 1292

01:04:15,069 --> 01:04:17,019

I couldn't tell if that

was part of the idea.

: 1293

01:04:17,019 --> 01:04:18,309

I, I'm not in favor of that either.

: 1294

01:04:18,699 --> 01:04:23,349

But if it was a straightforward idea

of like, we need to expand the tent,

: 1295

01:04:23,349 --> 01:04:24,339

we need to make room for people.

: 1296

01:04:24,739 --> 01:04:26,119

Who have pro-life views.

: 1297

01:04:26,149 --> 01:04:29,599

My response to that is

why, sincerely, why?

: 1298

01:04:29,599 --> 01:04:30,679

I mean, like, what, what?

: 1299

01:04:31,099 --> 01:04:31,788

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

What does it get you?

: 1300

01:04:31,969 --> 01:04:33,049

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

okay, so right.

: 1301

01:04:33,049 --> 01:04:35,479

Let, well, so like, let's, let's

imagine that that was a strategy

: 1302

01:04:35,479 --> 01:04:37,249

to pick up seats in, in red states.

: 1303

01:04:37,249 --> 01:04:39,889

Let's imagine that that was a recipe

for success and that it worked.

: 1304

01:04:40,099 --> 01:04:40,699

To what end?

: 1305

01:04:41,284 --> 01:04:41,374

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

: 1306

01:04:41,629 --> 01:04:45,949

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I mean, what proportion of Democrats who

: 1307

01:04:46,429 --> 01:04:49,249

voted for Democrats in that given election

: 1308

01:04:49,949 --> 01:04:50,169

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

say

: 1309

01:04:50,269 --> 01:04:51,319

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

it's because they want to see

: 1310

01:04:51,319 --> 01:04:52,429

Democrats protect abortion

: 1311

01:04:52,739 --> 01:04:53,159

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

mm-hmm.

: 1312

01:04:53,719 --> 01:04:54,979

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I mean, that is a core

: 1313

01:04:54,979 --> 01:04:56,719

element of our platform.

: 1314

01:04:57,349 --> 01:05:01,082

There is absolutely nothing in the

public opinion, , data to suggest that

: 1315

01:05:01,082 --> 01:05:02,372

we should walk away from that position.

: 1316

01:05:02,402 --> 01:05:05,762

It's, it's, it's popular, it's

exceptionally popular, under

: 1317

01:05:05,762 --> 01:05:07,172

appropriate context and framing.

: 1318

01:05:07,172 --> 01:05:10,352

And when you give all of those necessary

clues, but even when you don't and

: 1319

01:05:10,352 --> 01:05:13,352

you evaluate it in the abstract, it's

popular even without that context.

: 1320

01:05:13,592 --> 01:05:17,642

So like that example just didn't make,

if politics is for power, then what

: 1321

01:05:17,642 --> 01:05:19,142

do you wanna use your power to do?

: 1322

01:05:19,562 --> 01:05:20,372

What is the point?

: 1323

01:05:20,717 --> 01:05:21,887

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Strategically, it also doesn't

: 1324

01:05:21,887 --> 01:05:23,147

make any damn sense, right?

: 1325

01:05:23,482 --> 01:05:27,337

We, we have been here before

with the so-called, the blue dog

: 1326

01:05:27,337 --> 01:05:29,587

Democrats, the conservative Democrats.

: 1327

01:05:29,804 --> 01:05:31,994

, They made it exceptionally hard

to pass the Affordable Care Act.

: 1328

01:05:32,314 --> 01:05:35,774

, Manchin and cinema made it exceptionally

hard to do a lot of things, , during

: 1329

01:05:35,774 --> 01:05:40,964

the Biden administration and like,

so, okay, we, we have the numbers.

: 1330

01:05:40,994 --> 01:05:41,864

What are they for?

: 1331

01:05:41,894 --> 01:05:47,054

I guess they're for, , approving judicial

nominees and cabinet nominees and other

: 1332

01:05:47,054 --> 01:05:50,674

executive, , you know, agency heads

that have to have Senate confirmation.

: 1333

01:05:50,704 --> 01:05:51,154

Like that.

: 1334

01:05:51,154 --> 01:05:53,254

That sounds to me like

that's what that's for.

: 1335

01:05:53,654 --> 01:05:57,629

And then there is this problem of you have

to then govern and you have to show that

: 1336

01:05:57,629 --> 01:06:01,724

you got things done that consolidate your

electorate, that attract more people to

: 1337

01:06:01,724 --> 01:06:05,654

you because you were successful that, you

know, satisfy the people who are in your

: 1338

01:06:05,654 --> 01:06:07,574

tent who did the work to get you elected.

: 1339

01:06:07,663 --> 01:06:11,744

And if you instead have a whole bunch of

spoilers, a whole bunch of Joe Lieberman's

: 1340

01:06:11,744 --> 01:06:14,504

and Bart stoop acts and whatever, sitting

around going, no, I don't think so.

: 1341

01:06:14,504 --> 01:06:16,964

I think I like, I think I like

private healthcare better.

: 1342

01:06:16,964 --> 01:06:17,444

Thank you.

: 1343

01:06:17,634 --> 01:06:18,234

, Than like.

: 1344

01:06:18,849 --> 01:06:20,329

Where, what are we like again?

: 1345

01:06:20,329 --> 01:06:21,409

What are we doing?

: 1346

01:06:21,469 --> 01:06:24,979

And I, part of the reason I think that

people do feel so dissatisfied with both

: 1347

01:06:24,979 --> 01:06:29,099

parties, , but Democrats in particular

are so down on the democratic party.

: 1348

01:06:29,099 --> 01:06:33,419

Leadership is just like, what have you

guys done for us lately that actually paid

: 1349

01:06:33,419 --> 01:06:35,969

off in near enough terms for us to get it?

: 1350

01:06:35,969 --> 01:06:39,959

Like it just today we were talking about

whether or not to replace our circuit

: 1351

01:06:39,959 --> 01:06:43,979

panel and wondering if that would have

any kind of, you know, should we do it

: 1352

01:06:43,979 --> 01:06:48,538

before the end of the year when the IRA

tax credits expire for those kind of green

: 1353

01:06:48,538 --> 01:06:50,839

energy and, and efficiency, , purchases.

: 1354

01:06:50,939 --> 01:06:53,729

Setting those things to

expire ever was stupid.

: 1355

01:06:53,839 --> 01:06:59,009

, Setting them, , to not

start until: 2025

: 1356

01:06:59,069 --> 01:07:03,059

Like all of these bargaining, you

know, chips that they do make, make

: 1357

01:07:03,059 --> 01:07:06,029

it so that people feel like, well,

you said you did it, but I haven't

: 1358

01:07:06,029 --> 01:07:07,349

seen it hit my bank account yet.

: 1359

01:07:07,349 --> 01:07:10,739

I haven't seen it hit my

pocketbook as they like to say yet.

: 1360

01:07:10,859 --> 01:07:11,879

And so like.

: 1361

01:07:12,324 --> 01:07:12,714

I don't know.

: 1362

01:07:12,714 --> 01:07:17,049

It, it feels to me, , there's a, a, a

parallel conversation to the Ezra Tasi

: 1363

01:07:17,049 --> 01:07:21,129

Coates one, which was Tim Miller and Van

Lathan from The Ringer talking about this.

: 1364

01:07:21,129 --> 01:07:23,709

And one of the things that Van Lathan

said that I loved was this idea

: 1365

01:07:23,709 --> 01:07:26,959

of like, I'll tell you what, I'll

trade you seas, I'll trade you some,

: 1366

01:07:27,079 --> 01:07:28,669

some compassion for some courage.

: 1367

01:07:28,819 --> 01:07:32,929

Like you can give me your compassion

and I'll give you some of my courage

: 1368

01:07:32,959 --> 01:07:36,979

because we need to actually do some

stuff here and the kind of get caught

: 1369

01:07:36,979 --> 01:07:39,679

trying thing is a big part of it.

: 1370

01:07:39,709 --> 01:07:45,239

The pressing your message and making

things salient and, pounding, , the table

: 1371

01:07:45,239 --> 01:07:50,099

and going on every podcast or going on

every TV show or showing up everywhere.

: 1372

01:07:50,429 --> 01:07:51,989

Like, I honestly don't know why.

: 1373

01:07:52,389 --> 01:07:53,349

It's not just like.

: 1374

01:07:53,804 --> 01:08:00,044

The Grateful Dead perpetually on

tour, you know, Bernie, a OC, Ani,

: 1375

01:08:00,314 --> 01:08:04,754

John Ossoff, whoever, like just stay

on tour, go out talking all the time.

: 1376

01:08:04,994 --> 01:08:09,464

I don't know why we're not doing kind

of participatory democracy exercises

: 1377

01:08:09,464 --> 01:08:13,004

where people are able to, you know,

get together in small groups and talk

: 1378

01:08:13,004 --> 01:08:16,904

about what they want and talk about

what their problems are and invite

: 1379

01:08:16,904 --> 01:08:19,964

their friends who don't know anything

about politics instead of these like

: 1380

01:08:19,964 --> 01:08:22,604

very top down organized structures.

: 1381

01:08:22,934 --> 01:08:26,624

Like there is a way to show what the

alternative would look like when you don't

: 1382

01:08:26,624 --> 01:08:28,184

have any power to do the alternative.

: 1383

01:08:28,274 --> 01:08:31,184

And instead we're doing

the Play Dead routine.

: 1384

01:08:31,514 --> 01:08:33,224

But like, what are we doing

: 1385

01:08:33,624 --> 01:08:34,613

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

What are we doing?

: 1386

01:08:35,408 --> 01:08:37,959

Being the opposition party is a verb

: 1387

01:08:38,499 --> 01:08:38,919

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

: 1388

01:08:39,068 --> 01:08:40,179

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

that is an active,

: 1389

01:08:40,899 --> 01:08:41,118

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yes.

: 1390

01:08:41,229 --> 01:08:42,368

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

opportunity to do something

: 1391

01:08:42,374 --> 01:08:43,658

very active with that.

: 1392

01:08:44,318 --> 01:08:45,368

I would say, you know.

: 1393

01:08:45,969 --> 01:08:47,529

Something that feels

relevant at this point in the

: 1394

01:08:47,529 --> 01:08:50,889

conversation is to mention this.

: 1395

01:08:50,919 --> 01:08:55,328

There's this question that I like to

ask, in my research, I like to give

: 1396

01:08:55,328 --> 01:08:59,919

people a list of options and ask them to

indicate what they think are the biggest

: 1397

01:08:59,919 --> 01:09:06,078

problems our politics and our, our world

as it functions now, and what they think

: 1398

01:09:06,408 --> 01:09:08,538

the most impactful solutions would be.

: 1399

01:09:08,959 --> 01:09:15,434

So two separate questions repeatedly

across place, across race, across

: 1400

01:09:15,465 --> 01:09:17,415

age, I see the same things.

: 1401

01:09:17,711 --> 01:09:25,144

People broadly are fed up with feeling

that our political leaders care more

: 1402

01:09:25,144 --> 01:09:30,493

about scoring points for their team

than about delivering real results, and

: 1403

01:09:30,493 --> 01:09:33,630

that they're excessively beholden to

special interests , and corporations

: 1404

01:09:33,904 --> 01:09:34,193

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

what

: 1405

01:09:34,249 --> 01:09:35,184

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

they want to see.

: 1406

01:09:35,621 --> 01:09:39,491

Is leaders who will put regular

people above partisan bickering

: 1407

01:09:39,890 --> 01:09:40,111

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

and

: 1408

01:09:40,111 --> 01:09:41,970

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

and above the wealthy and will

: 1409

01:09:41,970 --> 01:09:43,770

actually serve the public.

: 1410

01:09:44,341 --> 01:09:44,631

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

that

: 1411

01:09:44,881 --> 01:09:46,381

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

sounds really obvious.

: 1412

01:09:46,781 --> 01:09:51,341

It's also something that I would love

to see become a concerted strategy of

: 1413

01:09:51,431 --> 01:09:56,001

a visual optic strategy and a messaging

strategy, because I'm not sure that

: 1414

01:09:56,001 --> 01:10:01,502

we've made meaningful use of it yet,

I'm not sure that that has been tried,

: 1415

01:10:01,502 --> 01:10:05,132

and I'm not sure that that has really

been promised beyond a couple of

: 1416

01:10:05,132 --> 01:10:07,442

isolated candidates and circumstances.

: 1417

01:10:07,502 --> 01:10:12,332

But really that is what everybody is sick

of, and that is what everybody wants.

: 1418

01:10:12,392 --> 01:10:16,442

They are just so tired of feeling

like elected officials are trying

: 1419

01:10:16,442 --> 01:10:20,342

to beat elected officials on

the other side of the aisle.

: 1420

01:10:21,002 --> 01:10:24,627

They're trying to point fingers, they're

trying to blame, , rather than just

: 1421

01:10:24,722 --> 01:10:26,402

trying to make people's lives better.

: 1422

01:10:26,747 --> 01:10:29,837

And again, I realize

how obvious that sounds.

: 1423

01:10:30,257 --> 01:10:33,587

I realize how many people who hold

elected office now might feel like

: 1424

01:10:33,587 --> 01:10:34,997

that's exactly what they are doing.

: 1425

01:10:35,397 --> 01:10:36,507

It's not breaking through.

: 1426

01:10:37,013 --> 01:10:39,443

I'm not going to give everyone the

benefit of the doubt and say that

: 1427

01:10:39,443 --> 01:10:41,693

that's what everybody is doing, but

I'm sure that that is what a lot

: 1428

01:10:41,693 --> 01:10:42,833

of people feel that they are doing.

: 1429

01:10:42,833 --> 01:10:44,423

And some of them are doing it really well.

: 1430

01:10:44,573 --> 01:10:46,133

Some of them are doing it really well.

: 1431

01:10:46,673 --> 01:10:49,733

But by and large, I would love to

see that become our political brand.

: 1432

01:10:49,793 --> 01:10:53,183

If there is going to be some sort of

reckoning of like, we need to adjust,

: 1433

01:10:53,183 --> 01:10:56,363

we need to shift, we need to change, we

need to appeal to people in a new way.

: 1434

01:10:56,763 --> 01:10:58,563

Let's not throw women under the bus.

: 1435

01:10:58,743 --> 01:11:00,813

Let's not throw immigrants under the bus.

: 1436

01:11:01,213 --> 01:11:02,713

Let's not turn on our neighbor.

: 1437

01:11:03,113 --> 01:11:10,383

Why don't we try going all in on a

more authentic approach to politics in

: 1438

01:11:10,383 --> 01:11:15,633

which we are in a much more deliberate

way, issuing special interest money.

: 1439

01:11:15,773 --> 01:11:22,713

Cracking down on exploitative corporate

policy and incorporating as a messaging

: 1440

01:11:22,713 --> 01:11:28,983

strategy and as a communication

strategy wherever possible, centering

: 1441

01:11:29,223 --> 01:11:33,853

the voter and the American public

and couching everything in terms of

: 1442

01:11:33,853 --> 01:11:40,063

whether they are being served well

rather than using politics and using

: 1443

01:11:40,063 --> 01:11:41,983

whatever fight we are currently having.

: 1444

01:11:41,983 --> 01:11:45,043

Framing it through the lens of

like a political football and

: 1445

01:11:45,043 --> 01:11:47,023

a horse race and a competition.

: 1446

01:11:47,423 --> 01:11:49,313

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

There is a lot of talk of authenticity

: 1447

01:11:49,313 --> 01:11:51,233

and I see it too with our brand clients.

: 1448

01:11:51,233 --> 01:11:54,323

Like, you know, consumers

value authenticity from brands

: 1449

01:11:54,323 --> 01:11:56,273

and it's like, okay, but but

what the hell does that mean?

: 1450

01:11:56,273 --> 01:11:56,543

Right?

: 1451

01:11:56,593 --> 01:11:58,723

Some of it is like, it has

to pass the smell test.

: 1452

01:11:58,723 --> 01:12:03,133

Like, don't tell me like BP that

you are beyond petroleum and

: 1453

01:12:03,133 --> 01:12:04,633

that you're now a green company.

: 1454

01:12:04,633 --> 01:12:05,893

I know what you do for a living.

: 1455

01:12:05,973 --> 01:12:09,633

Maybe that's actually the better way of

articulating what does authenticity mean?

: 1456

01:12:09,753 --> 01:12:10,863

It means don't lie to me.

: 1457

01:12:11,493 --> 01:12:16,023

And this I think is, . It's just like the

thing that's missing most of the time.

: 1458

01:12:16,053 --> 01:12:19,373

And I think this is the, the another

piece of the frustration with, Ezra's,

: 1459

01:12:19,403 --> 01:12:20,663

you know, politics is about power.

: 1460

01:12:20,693 --> 01:12:25,913

Okay, what's the power for , just

winning is kind of insufficient

: 1461

01:12:26,313 --> 01:12:27,423

for the moment, right?

: 1462

01:12:27,423 --> 01:12:30,243

Like, this is not merely about

winning the next election.

: 1463

01:12:30,243 --> 01:12:34,863

We have an a party in power who very

clearly would be perfectly happy

: 1464

01:12:34,863 --> 01:12:39,073

for the federal government to be one

branch and just the executive , the

: 1465

01:12:39,073 --> 01:12:43,393

Republican Congress has basically

abdicated most of their responsibilities.

: 1466

01:12:43,633 --> 01:12:45,943

The executive branch has said you

can pass whatever budget you want.

: 1467

01:12:45,943 --> 01:12:48,373

We'll only spend what we wanna

spend on what we wanna spend it on.

: 1468

01:12:48,523 --> 01:12:51,913

And , and we have a Roberts court

that's just sort of willing to say,

: 1469

01:12:52,033 --> 01:12:53,233

you go on with your bad selves.

: 1470

01:12:53,293 --> 01:12:58,343

And like that is, that's the world

they're perfectly happy having and.

: 1471

01:12:59,003 --> 01:13:02,003

That is a problem that is

a much bigger problem than

: 1472

01:13:02,003 --> 01:13:04,343

expanding the child tax credit.

: 1473

01:13:05,123 --> 01:13:11,423

And like should we be moving towards like

broader principles in the conversation

: 1474

01:13:11,693 --> 01:13:14,243

instead of just sort of defaulting to

this like, well, the average person

: 1475

01:13:14,243 --> 01:13:16,823

doesn't know what democracy means and

they also don't know what an oligarch is.

: 1476

01:13:16,823 --> 01:13:20,123

And so I guess we'll just go back

to talking about expanding Medicaid

: 1477

01:13:20,663 --> 01:13:23,693

and it's like, I mean, I think you

have to walk and chew gum at the same

: 1478

01:13:23,693 --> 01:13:26,813

time, probably here, but like what's

the, why are we expanding Medicaid?

: 1479

01:13:27,053 --> 01:13:30,983

What is it that we believe that then

makes us choose this policy as opposed

: 1480

01:13:30,983 --> 01:13:34,013

to just like choosing a policy and then

hoping that that adds up to something,

: 1481

01:13:34,403 --> 01:13:35,843

which I feel like is very much like.

: 1482

01:13:36,488 --> 01:13:37,298

For good or ill.

: 1483

01:13:37,598 --> 01:13:39,728

The policy sphere is where

as recline comes from.

: 1484

01:13:39,728 --> 01:13:40,748

It's where he's most comfortable.

: 1485

01:13:40,748 --> 01:13:44,358

He would very much like to go back there,

he said, so in the interview, , and

: 1486

01:13:44,358 --> 01:13:48,498

like, just leave me alone so I can think

about policy positions and, you know,

: 1487

01:13:48,498 --> 01:13:50,538

read NBER papers and, and be happy.

: 1488

01:13:50,568 --> 01:13:54,077

And that's the world he wants to

get back to, you know, peace time.

: 1489

01:13:54,438 --> 01:13:57,048

But in the meantime, he seems to

be willing to sit across the table

: 1490

01:13:57,048 --> 01:14:00,408

from his friend and say, but I might

have to kick you out of the tent.

: 1491

01:14:00,827 --> 01:14:04,338

Like I, I might have to throw you over in

order to get these other people to agree

: 1492

01:14:04,338 --> 01:14:06,108

with me just enough to get into power.

: 1493

01:14:06,508 --> 01:14:09,238

And like, then what, then

what do you do with it?

: 1494

01:14:09,793 --> 01:14:11,233

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

uh, that's where I get stuck always

: 1495

01:14:11,233 --> 01:14:13,633

is like to make what kind of world

: 1496

01:14:13,918 --> 01:14:15,808

Authenticity can mean a

lot of different things.

: 1497

01:14:15,808 --> 01:14:18,148

There's actually, I've seen some really

interesting research showing that, you

: 1498

01:14:18,148 --> 01:14:23,368

know, when people say and respond to

Trump with this idea that he's authentic,

: 1499

01:14:23,758 --> 01:14:24,178

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm.

: 1500

01:14:24,508 --> 01:14:26,068

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

their metric for authenticity

: 1501

01:14:26,068 --> 01:14:27,568

is, is prejudice.

: 1502

01:14:27,968 --> 01:14:33,138

, like, the fact that he says

such prejudice things indicates

: 1503

01:14:33,138 --> 01:14:34,428

that he's not self-censoring.

: 1504

01:14:34,458 --> 01:14:38,418

And it proves to me that he is honest

and that he is an authentic person.

: 1505

01:14:38,818 --> 01:14:41,458

So authenticity can mean a lot of

different things, and some of them can

: 1506

01:14:41,458 --> 01:14:44,098

be very sinister as, as the interpreted.

: 1507

01:14:44,198 --> 01:14:47,738

, an important piece of authenticity,

if we're looking at it, you know,

: 1508

01:14:47,827 --> 01:14:51,314

from the, side of wanting to do

good in the world and not poison it

: 1509

01:14:51,339 --> 01:14:51,759

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

: 1510

01:14:52,064 --> 01:14:54,114

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

is what you mean, and.

: 1511

01:14:54,114 --> 01:14:57,174

Have something to say, I think is

the other half of that equation.

: 1512

01:14:57,264 --> 01:15:00,864

And that's where I get worried again

about this idea of moderating and where

: 1513

01:15:00,864 --> 01:15:03,324

I keep coming back to the question

of, to make what kind of world.

: 1514

01:15:03,474 --> 01:15:07,584

And I wanna say like, I understand and

I empathize with this idea of wanting

: 1515

01:15:07,584 --> 01:15:10,943

to win for the sake of winning under

these circumstances, because I do

: 1516

01:15:10,943 --> 01:15:15,174

understand why that has value in and of

itself when it feels like it's us or the

: 1517

01:15:15,174 --> 01:15:19,794

autocrats like it's us or it's decline

and fascism at the end of this road.

: 1518

01:15:20,184 --> 01:15:23,094

And we just dunno how, how far down

the road they're going to walk us

: 1519

01:15:23,094 --> 01:15:24,534

before we're able to course correct it.

: 1520

01:15:24,774 --> 01:15:29,424

So if the question is like, you know,

hold ground on the status quo, it's us

: 1521

01:15:29,424 --> 01:15:32,254

or it's them, I empathize with that view.

: 1522

01:15:32,344 --> 01:15:32,764

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

: 1523

01:15:33,244 --> 01:15:35,614

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I understand and empathize with the

: 1524

01:15:35,614 --> 01:15:39,634

general impulse to get more cautious

when the stakes feel really high.

: 1525

01:15:40,174 --> 01:15:43,174

I just don't think it is going to work.

: 1526

01:15:43,174 --> 01:15:45,214

I don't think it's going

to work and that's the main

: 1527

01:15:45,214 --> 01:15:46,324

reason why I wouldn't do it.

: 1528

01:15:47,104 --> 01:15:51,334

I also think even if it did work,

it wouldn't accomplish anything.

: 1529

01:15:51,589 --> 01:15:51,919

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Right.

: 1530

01:15:52,318 --> 01:15:54,779

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

So I don't see why voters

: 1531

01:15:54,779 --> 01:15:56,009

would see it any differently.

: 1532

01:15:56,429 --> 01:15:59,669

I think you mentioned this earlier

in the conversation, but the idea

: 1533

01:15:59,669 --> 01:16:02,669

of trying to appeal to more voters

by sounding more like a Republican,

: 1534

01:16:02,669 --> 01:16:04,499

I think is just kind of a dead end.

: 1535

01:16:04,529 --> 01:16:07,139

Because if that's what they

want, they have a candidate.

: 1536

01:16:07,539 --> 01:16:09,639

Most of our elections are not nonpartisan.

: 1537

01:16:10,179 --> 01:16:10,389

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yep.

: 1538

01:16:10,479 --> 01:16:12,068

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

If it's a Democrat and a Republican

: 1539

01:16:12,068 --> 01:16:14,469

running, and the Democrat wants

to win more votes by sounding more

: 1540

01:16:14,469 --> 01:16:17,349

like the Republican, all that's

going to do is reinforce the idea

: 1541

01:16:17,349 --> 01:16:19,809

of like, yeah, those are the good

ideas, and that guy has more of them.

: 1542

01:16:19,899 --> 01:16:21,459

So I just, I have a candidate.

: 1543

01:16:21,549 --> 01:16:22,629

That's what I wanna hear.

: 1544

01:16:22,959 --> 01:16:24,129

I already have a guy.

: 1545

01:16:24,223 --> 01:16:27,283

Being a halfway Republican is not gonna

be better than being a Republican.

: 1546

01:16:27,283 --> 01:16:31,813

If what that voter wants is a Republican,

give an alternative, have an idea.

: 1547

01:16:31,903 --> 01:16:33,763

What is your better world?

: 1548

01:16:34,243 --> 01:16:35,743

That has to be the metric.

: 1549

01:16:36,236 --> 01:16:38,541

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

so this is, this is I guess maybe

: 1550

01:16:38,541 --> 01:16:41,241

a place where we can, , start

to come to an end since we're

: 1551

01:16:41,241 --> 01:16:42,321

only like in an hour and a half.

: 1552

01:16:42,371 --> 01:16:46,911

The like thing I keep thinking

about is also the kind of.

: 1553

01:16:46,911 --> 01:16:52,876

Uh, concept of a coalitional

politics and how that has been.

: 1554

01:16:53,426 --> 01:16:57,956

, I think that's like endemic to, as for

client's prescription, I think that's, , a

: 1555

01:16:57,956 --> 01:17:02,696

lot of what winds up guiding, , some of

the message testing that gets publicized.

: 1556

01:17:02,696 --> 01:17:05,366

It's some of the policy

positions that get publicized.

: 1557

01:17:05,366 --> 01:17:10,186

It's even, I think part of the, , angst

about the so-called groups, right, is

: 1558

01:17:10,186 --> 01:17:16,076

that like these are uneasy, , tentative,

, transactional possibly, , and certainly

: 1559

01:17:16,076 --> 01:17:20,516

contingent coalitions where it's

like, I'll support you on abortion

: 1560

01:17:20,516 --> 01:17:23,066

if you support me on healthcare.

: 1561

01:17:23,066 --> 01:17:24,925

I'll support you on this if

you'll support me on that.

: 1562

01:17:24,925 --> 01:17:26,366

And that's sort of the assumption of it.

: 1563

01:17:26,516 --> 01:17:31,026

And the problem of course, is that

you then have people like, the

: 1564

01:17:31,026 --> 01:17:34,266

lieberman's, the mansions, the

cinemas, whatever, who are like, well.

: 1565

01:17:34,641 --> 01:17:39,641

You know, actually I'm not gonna,

I'm not gonna vote with you on, , you

: 1566

01:17:39,641 --> 01:17:42,791

know, some of the green energy stuff

in the Inflation Reduction Act because

: 1567

01:17:42,851 --> 01:17:46,151

look, my family money and my, my

state's economy is dependent on coal.

: 1568

01:17:46,721 --> 01:17:49,391

So, no, no, there's,

there's no trade here.

: 1569

01:17:49,571 --> 01:17:53,291

Sort of problem there is then it

doesn't really feel like they're a team.

: 1570

01:17:53,951 --> 01:17:59,300

And if we're doing this now, , and we are

and have been for a long time as like team

: 1571

01:17:59,300 --> 01:18:04,371

affiliations more like fandoms than like,

I dunno, I don't know, whatever they think

: 1572

01:18:04,371 --> 01:18:08,871

they, that it is, , whatever the kind

of idealized version of what voters are.

: 1573

01:18:08,871 --> 01:18:13,441

These like deliberative, beard,

stroking, long form reading, NPR,

: 1574

01:18:13,441 --> 01:18:17,881

listening, , , people who are deeply

evaluating every policy position and

: 1575

01:18:17,881 --> 01:18:20,761

weighing up the cost and benefits and

selecting their candidates accordingly.,

: 1576

01:18:21,151 --> 01:18:24,121

You know, I, I think there's

this question in my mind of.

: 1577

01:18:24,521 --> 01:18:31,751

If coalitions are so contingent and

so transactional that I'm willing

: 1578

01:18:31,931 --> 01:18:37,481

to tell you to sit down for a while

while I court this other group of

: 1579

01:18:37,481 --> 01:18:40,601

people that I'm hoping to bring into

coalition, to make the coalition big

: 1580

01:18:40,601 --> 01:18:42,071

enough to get the outcome that I want.

: 1581

01:18:42,471 --> 01:18:45,796

But I have no unifying vision

for what we should all have in

: 1582

01:18:45,796 --> 01:18:48,556

common, what holds us together.

: 1583

01:18:49,276 --> 01:18:50,656

It's just transactional.

: 1584

01:18:50,686 --> 01:18:53,956

It's just to get through the next election

or just to get through the next vote.

: 1585

01:18:54,556 --> 01:18:55,996

Then like what good is it?

: 1586

01:18:56,026 --> 01:18:57,496

It feels extremely weak.

: 1587

01:18:57,526 --> 01:19:02,446

It feels extremely soluble, and I

keep wondering about like, where

: 1588

01:19:02,446 --> 01:19:03,946

is the politics of solidarity?

: 1589

01:19:03,976 --> 01:19:05,386

Like what, what does that look like?

: 1590

01:19:05,386 --> 01:19:10,856

What is the vision that is big enough that

in the same way that like, you know, Trump

: 1591

01:19:10,856 --> 01:19:15,506

is one of these people that operates like

a lot of popular brands do, and that is

: 1592

01:19:15,686 --> 01:19:19,046

people will hang on it whatever they want.

: 1593

01:19:19,446 --> 01:19:23,226

Whatever they like about themselves

or wish that they were more like,

: 1594

01:19:23,256 --> 01:19:28,686

or want for their own futures,

they will project onto that brand.

: 1595

01:19:29,016 --> 01:19:32,675

And you know, the most, the most beloved

brands in the world, your Apples, your

: 1596

01:19:32,675 --> 01:19:34,746

Cokes, your Nikes, they are like that.

: 1597

01:19:34,746 --> 01:19:36,936

People will project anything onto them.

: 1598

01:19:36,996 --> 01:19:38,346

And they're big tent brands.

: 1599

01:19:38,376 --> 01:19:40,536

Like, they're not actively

trying to reject anybody.

: 1600

01:19:40,986 --> 01:19:47,806

And so they create enough softness

around them in order to absorb that.

: 1601

01:19:48,166 --> 01:19:52,576

But they also like pick something

aspirational that is easy

: 1602

01:19:52,576 --> 01:19:53,746

for a lot of people to share.

: 1603

01:19:53,776 --> 01:19:55,966

Like Apple for a long

time is about creativity.

: 1604

01:19:56,326 --> 01:19:59,866

And Nike has this, if you're a

body, you're an athlete idea.

: 1605

01:20:00,256 --> 01:20:02,986

And even if you're just gonna put

the sneakers on and mow the lawn

: 1606

01:20:03,166 --> 01:20:06,196

deep down inside, we know that

you have the heart of an athlete.

: 1607

01:20:06,196 --> 01:20:06,946

So we are for you.

: 1608

01:20:07,336 --> 01:20:11,146

And, you know, Coke is about happiness

and like, that's, that's what it's about.

: 1609

01:20:11,546 --> 01:20:14,636

These things are fairly ephemeral and

probably inappropriate for politics.

: 1610

01:20:14,756 --> 01:20:18,356

But I think like there is still some kind

of like, what is the grand unifying idea?

: 1611

01:20:18,356 --> 01:20:21,086

What, to your point, what is the

world we are trying to build?

: 1612

01:20:21,136 --> 01:20:22,516

What is the point of this power?

: 1613

01:20:22,576 --> 01:20:25,966

And when people like us recline talk

about it, it's this like, well, once

: 1614

01:20:25,966 --> 01:20:28,636

we're in power will protect all of you.

: 1615

01:20:29,086 --> 01:20:31,726

And it's like, okay, so

who's we and who's you?

: 1616

01:20:31,816 --> 01:20:35,836

And like, why would I trust you to

protect me when you were willing to

: 1617

01:20:35,836 --> 01:20:38,446

throw me under the bus in order to

get into power in the first place?

: 1618

01:20:38,656 --> 01:20:41,116

It's just like, it, it

can't be this transactional.

: 1619

01:20:41,116 --> 01:20:42,646

There has to be a better

vision for all of this.

: 1620

01:20:42,646 --> 01:20:45,166

And then the final thing that I've just

been thinking about a lot is, and I'm

: 1621

01:20:45,466 --> 01:20:46,606

curious what you'd make about any of it.

: 1622

01:20:46,636 --> 01:20:49,486

We can carry on this conversation 'cause

we're not gonna solve it in seven minutes.

: 1623

01:20:49,786 --> 01:20:54,336

But like there is a question

in my mind of this will be my

: 1624

01:20:54,336 --> 01:20:56,136

left-handed optimism version of this.

: 1625

01:20:56,166 --> 01:21:01,876

Like, let's, as a thought experiment,

, accept that, , the third Republic of

: 1626

01:21:01,876 --> 01:21:06,346

the American constitutional system start

with the Articles of Confederation.

: 1627

01:21:06,346 --> 01:21:07,876

Then you have the Amer,

the US Constitution.

: 1628

01:21:07,876 --> 01:21:11,506

Then you have, reconstruction

and like, maybe we're on four,

: 1629

01:21:11,506 --> 01:21:12,706

maybe we're on five, who knows.

: 1630

01:21:12,706 --> 01:21:14,896

But like the, the next American Republic.

: 1631

01:21:15,136 --> 01:21:16,696

Is it going to look like this one?

: 1632

01:21:16,936 --> 01:21:18,046

Should it look like this one?

: 1633

01:21:18,106 --> 01:21:22,456

Should we move into finally, because I

feel like we're still kind of in a liminal

: 1634

01:21:22,456 --> 01:21:24,136

space between the 20th and 21st century.

: 1635

01:21:24,136 --> 01:21:24,736

Sometimes.

: 1636

01:21:25,036 --> 01:21:27,796

Like, can we move into being

a modern society with a modern

: 1637

01:21:27,796 --> 01:21:31,546

constitution and a modern set of

values, and what would that look like?

: 1638

01:21:31,606 --> 01:21:34,546

Might that be a better selling point?

: 1639

01:21:34,546 --> 01:21:37,786

Rather than we're gonna reset

everything back to normal.

: 1640

01:21:37,786 --> 01:21:40,876

We're gonna take everything back to the

way it was before Trump came on the scene.

: 1641

01:21:40,925 --> 01:21:42,666

Those times weren't that great either.

: 1642

01:21:42,963 --> 01:21:45,123

, Isn't this an opportunity to do.

: 1643

01:21:45,827 --> 01:21:49,338

As I believe George Herbert Walker

Bush that one time, that vision thing

: 1644

01:21:49,738 --> 01:21:54,238

is, isn't a time like, and is like,

isn't it a wonderful opportunity?

: 1645

01:21:54,238 --> 01:21:55,228

You're out of power.

: 1646

01:21:55,678 --> 01:21:58,138

You're not being allowed to govern,

you're not getting anything you want.

: 1647

01:21:58,288 --> 01:22:03,228

Why not be building a, a solidarity

movement around a new American founding

: 1648

01:22:03,618 --> 01:22:10,098

that like, brings everybody into the tent

as opposed to arguing about, you fall into

: 1649

01:22:10,098 --> 01:22:13,848

this set of banners on the cross tabs, so

therefore you must care about this policy.

: 1650

01:22:13,848 --> 01:22:15,978

And so we're gonna talk to you about

that policy and over here we're

: 1651

01:22:15,978 --> 01:22:18,498

gonna talk to these people about

that policy and hope that somehow

: 1652

01:22:18,498 --> 01:22:20,958

it all congeals into an electorate.

: 1653

01:22:21,288 --> 01:22:23,327

It just, it, uh, when are we

gonna stop playing small ball?

: 1654

01:22:23,448 --> 01:22:24,077

That's my question.

: 1655

01:22:24,478 --> 01:22:24,768

Yeah.

: 1656

01:22:24,943 --> 01:22:26,173

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

God, I wish I could answer that.

: 1657

01:22:26,573 --> 01:22:31,103

Uh, to be honest, not to try to take

us out on a deeply dark note, but my

: 1658

01:22:31,103 --> 01:22:36,023

longstanding fear, uh, since: 2020

been that this is all going to get a lot

: 1659

01:22:36,023 --> 01:22:37,282

worse before it gets measurably better.

: 1660

01:22:37,795 --> 01:22:38,638

don't know how much worse.

: 1661

01:22:38,698 --> 01:22:40,858

I don't know what the timeline

is, and I don't know if I'm right.

: 1662

01:22:40,858 --> 01:22:42,618

You know, I'm like, I'm

not a prognosticator.

: 1663

01:22:42,618 --> 01:22:45,488

I, I this is just a, a fear that

keeps me up in the middle of the

: 1664

01:22:45,488 --> 01:22:46,718

night, so I'm just sharing it.

: 1665

01:22:46,718 --> 01:22:49,058

So it can be a fear that keeps

everybody off, that listens to

: 1666

01:22:49,058 --> 01:22:51,398

this up in the night if they would

like to add it to their roster.

: 1667

01:22:52,088 --> 01:22:56,438

You know, the, I love the, the

idea it basically, I mean, and

: 1668

01:22:56,438 --> 01:22:57,878

it's, it's out there, right?

: 1669

01:22:57,878 --> 01:23:00,368

This idea of like, Democrats

need a project: 2029

: 1670

01:23:01,103 --> 01:23:01,373

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yeah.

: 1671

01:23:01,733 --> 01:23:02,543

Please don't call it that.

: 1672

01:23:02,813 --> 01:23:03,202

But yes,

: 1673

01:23:03,278 --> 01:23:03,758

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Right?

: 1674

01:23:04,053 --> 01:23:12,965

Yeah, I, I think what I most want is a

version that sounds like yours and not

: 1675

01:23:13,265 --> 01:23:16,295

a attempt to sort of reverse engineer.

: 1676

01:23:16,695 --> 01:23:22,245

A popular platform that will bring most

people in under the tent, and that just

: 1677

01:23:22,245 --> 01:23:25,665

sort of sidelines every issue that we

feel is a little bit thorny or a little

: 1678

01:23:25,665 --> 01:23:29,565

bit divisive or, you know, splinters

the, the, the potential coalition in

: 1679

01:23:29,565 --> 01:23:31,425

some way that, that feels inconvenient.

: 1680

01:23:31,825 --> 01:23:35,815

I don't think that any meaningful change

in our politics and any meaningful

: 1681

01:23:35,815 --> 01:23:39,925

improvement in our lives is going

to come from reverse engineering

: 1682

01:23:40,325 --> 01:23:41,615

what we think is going to win

: 1683

01:23:41,955 --> 01:23:42,375

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

mm-hmm.

: 1684

01:23:42,605 --> 01:23:44,735

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

It has to be an answer to the

: 1685

01:23:44,735 --> 01:23:47,265

question to build what kind of world.

: 1686

01:23:47,915 --> 01:23:48,135

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yep.

: 1687

01:23:48,675 --> 01:23:51,135

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

So as long as that's the North star,

: 1688

01:23:51,645 --> 01:23:54,045

I think that's exactly where we

should be putting time and energy.

: 1689

01:23:54,434 --> 01:23:58,005

And I would love to be wrong about

my pessimism that we're only going to

: 1690

01:23:58,005 --> 01:24:02,665

get there as a function of having to

emerge from some really deep, dark pit.

: 1691

01:24:03,445 --> 01:24:07,525

I would love to circumvent the

pit altogether and just, you know,

: 1692

01:24:07,525 --> 01:24:10,434

what if we just tried this and

what if we just built momentum for

: 1693

01:24:10,434 --> 01:24:11,865

it and, and what if we won on it?

: 1694

01:24:12,275 --> 01:24:12,695

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Mm-hmm.

: 1695

01:24:13,105 --> 01:24:15,655

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

I don't think there's anything else we

: 1696

01:24:15,655 --> 01:24:17,335

can or should put our energy toward.

: 1697

01:24:17,575 --> 01:24:18,985

I think that's what we have to try.

: 1698

01:24:19,385 --> 01:24:24,965

My fear is that, you know, for one reason

or another, we're not going to be able

: 1699

01:24:24,965 --> 01:24:30,275

to develop it successfully and sell it

successfully unless it is in response

: 1700

01:24:30,275 --> 01:24:35,802

to, a, a meaningful worsening of our,

of our divides and of our circumstances.

: 1701

01:24:36,312 --> 01:24:42,252

But I would love to be wrong about

that, and I feel like I'm putting my

: 1702

01:24:42,282 --> 01:24:48,642

professional effort behind your version,

which is let's try now, let's try,

: 1703

01:24:48,672 --> 01:24:49,992

let's try to build that right now.

: 1704

01:24:50,112 --> 01:24:50,412

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yeah.

: 1705

01:24:50,762 --> 01:24:51,992

, riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

But I do worry about

: 1706

01:24:52,742 --> 01:24:52,982

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

when,

: 1707

01:24:53,582 --> 01:24:55,142

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

we will actually succeed at it.

: 1708

01:24:55,541 --> 01:24:56,952

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

When you've got all the warning lights

: 1709

01:24:56,952 --> 01:25:01,812

flashing and, , we're accelerating towards

something whether we want to or not.

: 1710

01:25:02,388 --> 01:25:03,648

, you couldn't see it coming.

: 1711

01:25:03,648 --> 01:25:06,378

At the very least, you can

do some scenario planning

: 1712

01:25:06,588 --> 01:25:10,907

and imagine various outcomes.

: 1713

01:25:10,938 --> 01:25:13,848

You could sort of just decide to

go through the thought experiment

: 1714

01:25:13,848 --> 01:25:17,058

of like, let's say this is all

temporary, everything goes fine in

: 1715

01:25:17,058 --> 01:25:20,898

: 2026

maybe they take back the Senate,

: 1716

01:25:20,898 --> 01:25:22,733

probably not, but it gets close.

: 1717

01:25:23,058 --> 01:25:28,678

And then in: 2028

make it outta the primaries, right?

: 1718

01:25:28,678 --> 01:25:29,038

And

: 1719

01:25:29,168 --> 01:25:30,238

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

This is a beautiful dream.

: 1720

01:25:30,478 --> 01:25:30,657

Go

: 1721

01:25:30,688 --> 01:25:31,018

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

right.

: 1722

01:25:31,048 --> 01:25:36,568

And, uh, and all the, and, and Pete

Hegseth does, but he is such a loser

: 1723

01:25:36,968 --> 01:25:42,818

that he loses like profoundly to, I

don't care who, , uh, I don't know.

: 1724

01:25:43,358 --> 01:25:46,358

You got anybody that, like, who,

if you could just play the fantasy

: 1725

01:25:46,358 --> 01:25:50,118

baseball right now, who's, who's

democratic president in: 2028

: 1726

01:25:50,598 --> 01:25:50,988

I dunno.

: 1727

01:25:51,048 --> 01:25:51,868

I don't even know who it would be.

: 1728

01:25:52,503 --> 01:25:52,623

I,

: 1729

01:25:53,048 --> 01:25:53,613

riverside_lauren_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0181:

Oh, God.

: 1730

01:25:53,913 --> 01:25:55,653

I don't, I don't, I don't have a favorite.

: 1731

01:25:55,713 --> 01:25:57,153

I haven't even gotten that far.

: 1732

01:25:57,223 --> 01:26:00,073

, But if, if we're playing a little

fantasy game in which Pete Hegseth

: 1733

01:26:00,073 --> 01:26:03,253

has taken down, I would love to be,

I would love for it to be a woman.

: 1734

01:26:03,313 --> 01:26:03,913

Oh my God.

: 1735

01:26:03,913 --> 01:26:04,663

I would love that.

: 1736

01:26:04,723 --> 01:26:06,223

riverside_farrah_bostic_raw-audio_cross_tabs_0180:

Yes, yes.

: 1737

01:26:06,463 --> 01:26:07,273

That is true.

: 1738

01:26:07,303 --> 01:26:09,853

That is the necessary condition

there for that to be really poetic.

: 1739

01:26:09,943 --> 01:26:11,593

And so like that, that's

a beautiful future.

: 1740

01:26:11,653 --> 01:26:14,623

We could, we could just sort of hope

that like actually the system isn't

: 1741

01:26:14,623 --> 01:26:17,113

disintegrating under our feet and

it'll all be fine and we'll have our

: 1742

01:26:17,113 --> 01:26:18,763

elections and then this will happen.

: 1743

01:26:19,223 --> 01:26:22,223

, And, you know, the, the Democrats in

Congress will be able to stymie Trump

: 1744

01:26:22,223 --> 01:26:26,282

for a couple years and, , the Supreme

Court will come to its senses and

: 1745

01:26:26,373 --> 01:26:29,103

read the Constitution spontaneously.

: 1746

01:26:29,853 --> 01:26:30,963

Well, they'll read the room, right.

: 1747

01:26:30,963 --> 01:26:33,423

The Democrats will win and they'll be

like, eh, maybe we gotta pull this back.

: 1748

01:26:33,452 --> 01:26:37,383

And so that's, that's one

on one end of the spectrum.

: 1749

01:26:37,563 --> 01:26:41,523

And on the other end of the spectrum is

maybe not, I know that this is like a

: 1750

01:26:41,523 --> 01:26:45,543

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