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Worst President Ever
Episode 38718th February 2026 • Cognitive Engineering • Cognitive Engineering
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Shownotes

A few things we mentioned in this podcast:

- Trump ranked as worst president https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/20/presidents-ranking-trump-biden-list?

- George W Bush the worst president ever https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/george-w-bush-the-worst-president-in-history-192899/

- The Secretary Problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem

For more information on Aleph Insights visit our website https://alephinsights.com or to get in touch about our podcast email podcast@alephinsights.com

Transcripts

Fraser McGruer:

Hello and welcome to the Cognitive

Fraser McGruer:

Engineering Podcast, brought to you by Aleph Insights and

Fraser McGruer:

produced by me, Fraser McGruer. On this podcast, we take a look

Fraser McGruer:

at a wide range of topics, and today, we'll be asking the

Fraser McGruer:

question, Is Donald Trump the worst president ever?

Fraser McGruer:

It's been a while since I've seen you. It's very nice to see

Fraser McGruer:

you again. Here we go, right? Nick, Donald Trump, worst

Fraser McGruer:

president ever, yeah.

Nick Hare:

Well, as you know, we don't, we're not a political

Nick Hare:

podcast. We don't have an opinion about whether Donald

Nick Hare:

Trump is any good. But according to the famously unbiased source,

Nick Hare:

the guardian in 2024 mind you. So discussing his first term,

Nick Hare:

Donald Trump finished 45th and bottom of a list ranking US

Nick Hare:

presidents by greatness. And I think his list was compiled by a

Nick Hare:

bunch of, again, famously unbiased academics and people

Nick Hare:

like that. Yeah, probably from Harvard, yeah, that kind of

Nick Hare:

thing. So according to them, here's but let me tell you what

Nick Hare:

the Rolling Stone magazine said in 2006 George W Bush, the worst

Nick Hare:

president in history. Many historians are now wondering

Nick Hare:

whether Bush, in fact, will be remembered as the very worst

Nick Hare:

president in all of American history. So, and I recall, I

Nick Hare:

still remember the 80s, when I recall my parents and their

Nick Hare:

right on friends talking about Ronald Reagan and how utterly

Nick Hare:

dreadful he was compared to the great presidents of the past and

Nick Hare:

so well, the question is, how do we make sure we're not just sort

Nick Hare:

of being biassed by recent events. And, you know, how can

Nick Hare:

we tell if, if our judgement that something it seems uniquely

Nick Hare:

bad, is actually correct, but, but just before we tackle that

Nick Hare:

sort of general question, just looking at presidential ratings,

Nick Hare:

which actually is something relatively objective, in the

Nick Hare:

sense that they're just measures of you know what is? What's the

Nick Hare:

average approval rating of every president during the course of

Nick Hare:

their term? Donald Trump is, in fact, lowest, well, at least of

Nick Hare:

all presidents since the 1950s and Kate, would you like to

Nick Hare:

guess who's top? It's quite an easy one. I think Obama. No no,

Nick Hare:

it's going to be Obama's mid, mid range, Roosevelt, Abraham

Nick Hare:

Lincoln, no, is since the fifth, oh, sorry, since the 50s. Oh,

Nick Hare:

Abraham Lincoln, then not those 50s. Since the 50s. I think this

Nick Hare:

is quite easy, if you think about probably it's somewhere

Nick Hare:

never got a chance, really. Yeah, Kennedy's at the top by a

Nick Hare:

long, long shout, and then it's Dwight Eisenhower, remarkably,

Nick Hare:

George H W Bush, I suspect, yeah, and so, but so according

Nick Hare:

to that right, according just looking at the ratings, average

Nick Hare:

ratings for their term, and sorry, was that Trump did come

Nick Hare:

lower. Sorry, did you say that's average approval ratings during

Nick Hare:

Yeah, so in other words, you said, average out their approval

Nick Hare:

throughout their term, and and just looking at that number,

Nick Hare:

Trump's at the bottom, and Kennedy is very much at the top,

Nick Hare:

bit of an outliner outlier. So, so there we are. So it is. Can

Nick Hare:

we therefore conclude that Donald Trump is indeed going to

Nick Hare:

go down in history as the worst president ever.

Fraser McGruer:

Okay, so I mean, one of the things I think of,

Fraser McGruer:

first of all, is how useful are ratings in terms of an actual

Fraser McGruer:

judgement, because opinions change about people over time.

Fraser McGruer:

That's the first sort of thing that I think of. But anyway,

Fraser McGruer:

it's not me answering this, it's you guys. So where do we start

Fraser McGruer:

with this? Chris, what are your thoughts? What have

Chris Wragg:

you got on this? Well, I think there's a specific

Chris Wragg:

issue with with Donald Trump, and the perception of Donald

Chris Wragg:

Trump, which is one of the reasons why Donald Trump is

Chris Wragg:

viewed as a bad president. And that's really like if you look

Chris Wragg:

at his phraseology, it's kind of at the level of a a playground

Chris Wragg:

child. His eloquence is very low, and I think that's what a

Chris Wragg:

lot of people would say they talk about the weave, and is

Chris Wragg:

really him being pretty inarticulate and and not trying

Chris Wragg:

to hide that fact. And I think so for a lot of people, I think

Chris Wragg:

there's this sort of connection, maybe a dubious connection,

Chris Wragg:

between eloquence and intelligence and ability to

Chris Wragg:

lead, and I think Donald Trump is uniquely bad at that,

Chris Wragg:

whereas, if you look at his antithesis, somebody like Obama,

Chris Wragg:

exactly, Obama was highly eloquent and viewed by lots of

Chris Wragg:

the intelligentsia as Being an excellent president. So I think

Chris Wragg:

this, there's this conflation going on between ability to

Chris Wragg:

articulate oneself and ability to preside.

Fraser McGruer:

Yeah, I think there's an interesting thing

Fraser McGruer:

there about, you know, can intelligent, clever people be

Fraser McGruer:

wrong? Unthinkable.

Nick Hare:

Yeah. And well, and also it does. How much does that

Nick Hare:

actually matter when you're being a president? Because the

Nick Hare:

thing is, I think what people miss, well, particularly kind

Nick Hare:

of, you know, anti, anti Trump, people miss, is that, yeah, he

Nick Hare:

isn't very eloquent, but he's very good at kind of reading the

Nick Hare:

room. I mean, there's something quite impressive about him, and

Nick Hare:

the way that he, he kind of manages a crowd. And, you know,

Nick Hare:

I'm not saying any of that is conscious. I mean, I suspect

Nick Hare:

it's just a sort of accident or something that he has learned to

Nick Hare:

do, but he's good at something when it comes to well, and if

Nick Hare:

you look at his what it isn't is, is spinning an excellent off

Nick Hare:

the cuff phrase. I mean, you can't really imagine him

Nick Hare:

delivering a speech

Chris Wragg:

and about his sort of his debate performance in the

Chris Wragg:

original set of primaries and then against Hillary Clinton,

Chris Wragg:

when he was, you know, elected for his first term. There, there

Chris Wragg:

are some very sort of famous asides that he, that he makes,

Chris Wragg:

that are considered to be kind of quick, quick with but they

Chris Wragg:

are. They are not. They're not high Brower sides, you know,

Chris Wragg:

they're,

Nick Hare:

they're and, I mean, that's all of a piece with him,

Nick Hare:

and his appeal in general, yeah, is what you'd expect. Yeah,

Nick Hare:

yeah. And I think, you know, there's something Republican

Nick Hare:

presidents are supposed to be hokey, you know, they're

Nick Hare:

supposed to be kind of common, the common man, I know, yeah,

Nick Hare:

that's sort of so you get your you know, Bush was the same,

Nick Hare:

Reagan was the same. You know, they're not meant to come out

Nick Hare:

with intellectual things that sound like you're a history

Nick Hare:

professor from Harvard. That's the job of Democrat presidents,

Nick Hare:

isn't it? So that's right, but, but anyway, I mean, look, I

Nick Hare:

think, I think the problem we really want to talk about is,

Nick Hare:

how do we know how much of that is our immediate investment in

Nick Hare:

the kind of low recent local political situation? So how much

Nick Hare:

of the reaction that people have to Trump and their judgement

Nick Hare:

that he's the worst president ever, how much of that is is

Nick Hare:

based on some on a kind of objective judgement of the kind

Nick Hare:

that you might be able to have about a 19th century president,

Nick Hare:

and how much of it is merely recency, you know, that's,

Nick Hare:

that's, that's really the question I think we want to look

Nick Hare:

at because, you know, this is, this crops up all the time,

Nick Hare:

right? You this common pattern of, I come along and say that

Nick Hare:

here is something that's kind of uniquely bad and terrible and

Nick Hare:

needs to be dealt with. And then, you know, the flip side of

Nick Hare:

that argument is, well, people have said that in the past. It's

Nick Hare:

what they said about George W Bush, what they said about

Nick Hare:

Reagan, you know, or I come along and say, Look, you know,

Nick Hare:

global warming is going to destroy the world. And you go,

Nick Hare:

Well, that's what they said about acid rain and global

Nick Hare:

cooling and the population. Why should we listen Yeah, why

Nick Hare:

should we listen to you? And so we have this, this common

Nick Hare:

pattern that you get of this is uniquely bad and terrible, and

Nick Hare:

we've got to do something about it versus but uniquely bad and

Nick Hare:

terrible things, according to people like you, happen all the

Nick Hare:

time. So one side is saying, you know, you're being alarmist, and

Nick Hare:

the other side is saying you're being complacent. And how do we

Nick Hare:

make sure? Because you know people are wrong. Intelligent

Nick Hare:

people are wrong. You know, you think of like the Yeah, Paul

Nick Hare:

Ehrlich's Population Bomb, 1968 well now you know. And now, of

Nick Hare:

course, everyone's being alarmist about population

Nick Hare:

collapse. So how do we, how do we know whether we should be

Nick Hare:

scared of something, or whether we should say, Yes, this is

Nick Hare:

actually uniquely terrible, versus how much are we going to

Nick Hare:

go, Well, you know what? In the morning, it'll look different.

Nick Hare:

So let's say that we, that a lot of people in the US think that

Nick Hare:

Donald Trump is this kind of, you know, once in a lifetime,

Nick Hare:

threat to democracy, to democratic institutions, and you

Nick Hare:

know, he's going to impose martial law on the US. He's

Nick Hare:

going to try and run for a third term. It's going to become his

Nick Hare:

personal dictatorship. It does seem to be trying. So that's

Nick Hare:

what a lot of people perceive, you know, and well, but

Nick Hare:

obviously, you know. And so the question is, Well, should we do

Nick Hare:

something about that? How much should should we believe that

Nick Hare:

that's true? And therefore, how much should we, you know,

Nick Hare:

resist? How much effort should we put into resisting that which

Nick Hare:

is not dissimilar from, you know, this question of, well,

Nick Hare:

what do we how much effort should we put into preventing

Nick Hare:

climate change, because, you know, yeah, well, this is all

Nick Hare:

doom and gloom, but at the same time, that's what they said

Nick Hare:

about, you know, the ozone layer, and that seems to have

Nick Hare:

fixed itself, admittedly, thanks to human intervention. But, you

Nick Hare:

know, you get the idea it's like, okay, well, how do I know

Nick Hare:

how alarmed to be when it's of kind of battle between the

Nick Hare:

alarmists and the complacentists in general. Is there a general

Nick Hare:

pattern of better thought that we should use to try and solve

Nick Hare:

that problem?

Chris Wragg:

Yeah, and I think there's a, I think there's a

Chris Wragg:

second sort of factor about judgement to do with judging

Chris Wragg:

things in your own time, and that. It's not only that you you

Chris Wragg:

get these, these emotional you know, when you're judging things

Chris Wragg:

in your own time, you are affected by them, and so you

Chris Wragg:

have an emotional response to them. So it's easier to be

Chris Wragg:

objective about something that's 100 years ago than it is

Chris Wragg:

something today, right? But I think also that the second

Chris Wragg:

factor that means time is a factor when, when, sort of

Chris Wragg:

considering whether something's good or bad, is that, over the

Chris Wragg:

course of that time, what is good or bad changes according

Chris Wragg:

to, you know, cultural standards. So, you know, you

Chris Wragg:

take somebody like Washington, who you know, is still perceived

Chris Wragg:

to be a great president, obviously, but you bring in

Chris Wragg:

factors like slave ownership, or, you know, other sort of

Chris Wragg:

positions that he took that are now totally unpalatable because

Chris Wragg:

of the shift of what is considered to be, you know,

Chris Wragg:

okay, by today's standards, what's what's good by today's

Chris Wragg:

standards as a president, is partially subjective. There are

Chris Wragg:

certain things where you can say, yes, okay,

Nick Hare:

I feel like not owning slaves is probably a

Nick Hare:

right, probably something that some of the voters are going to

Nick Hare:

look for. Yeah, right, exactly,

Fraser McGruer:

which also beggars the question how the

Fraser McGruer:

Confederacy won the war right? The end of civil war, let's say

Fraser McGruer:

yeah. And let's say there were, had they won? Yeah, right. Let's

Fraser McGruer:

say that. So you ended up with two Americas. Let's say in the

Fraser McGruer:

South. I'm guessing that Abraham Lincoln would probably be

Fraser McGruer:

thought of being a bad president, probably. I think he

Fraser McGruer:

is, in some ways, some but that's what ties into this

Fraser McGruer:

thing. I'm sort of labouring the point there, really. But you

Fraser McGruer:

know, the context changes.

Chris Wragg:

Yeah, yeah. So, so I guess what I'm saying is, not,

Chris Wragg:

not only do we have to aim off for the emotional aspect of the

Chris Wragg:

near term versus the longer term in the past, there's also a

Chris Wragg:

change in values that occurs, which then, you know, you assess

Chris Wragg:

things differently.

Fraser McGruer:

So that's helps us with this sort of ratings,

Fraser McGruer:

real time ratings, as it were, that sort of helps answer that

Fraser McGruer:

sort

Nick Hare:

of question. But it also, I mean, it suggests that

Nick Hare:

it's not dissimilar to that question of like, would you, you

Nick Hare:

know, would you take a pill that changed your your preferences

Nick Hare:

and made you, you know, want to desert your family, and you run

Nick Hare:

off with a supermodel and you know. And then you actually, you

Nick Hare:

might just, you know, you might enjoy that if you took that

Nick Hare:

pill, you wouldn't, then care that you've done that, but you

Nick Hare:

now do care about that. And so like, let's say someone observes

Nick Hare:

that. Well, if we, if we leave Trump running, and he runs for

Nick Hare:

another two terms, you know, we will all start to accept that

Nick Hare:

America looks like Trump's America, and kids will grow up

Nick Hare:

and think it's normal, and people will stop caring about

Nick Hare:

they'll go, yeah, I remember when we had those annoying

Nick Hare:

democratic institutions that were slowing everything down

Nick Hare:

and, like, really getting in the way and gumming up our ability

Nick Hare:

to govern properly, you know. So you might observe that, well,

Nick Hare:

we, you know, we, we actually won't care in the future as much

Nick Hare:

as we think we care now. So perhaps that's that, you know,

Nick Hare:

that's an argument in favour of the complacency people is that,

Nick Hare:

well, you know, even though, actually, yes, us now care about

Nick Hare:

this, us in the future will just accept it well. And I suppose

Nick Hare:

you can make a similar argument. I think some economists have

Nick Hare:

made the same argument about about global warming. It's like,

Nick Hare:

well, we actually will just adapt to it. And, yeah, it'll be

Nick Hare:

a bit chaotic to begin with, but in 100 years time, you know,

Nick Hare:

it'll just be hotter, and we'll have, will have got

Peter Coghill:

used to it, yeah, we're quite growing our grapes

Peter Coghill:

in in Surrey, yeah.

Chris Wragg:

But, I mean, there's a, there's a parallel,

Chris Wragg:

I'm not a sort of Stark here, but, you know, famously terrible

Chris Wragg:

Roman leader Julius Caesar, obviously changed the foundation

Chris Wragg:

of of the Republic, you know, and subsequent to that, while

Chris Wragg:

people complained about the sort of erosion of democratic

Chris Wragg:

institutions, arguably, you know, Rome's power grew after

Chris Wragg:

that. But nobody looks back. And really, you know, when you think

Chris Wragg:

of Caesar, 90% of people don't think about what he did to Roman

Chris Wragg:

institutions. Do they close out the territory

Peter Coghill:

confident and the and this sort of the the getting

Peter Coghill:

used to the normalisation of the new bad. Kind of assumes that

Peter Coghill:

there is a continuum of bad, bad scale you can slide Exactly.

Peter Coghill:

There might be things like global warming and other and

Peter Coghill:

catastrophic, you know, not necessarily, but sort of

Peter Coghill:

systemic changes in government and things can actually be a

Peter Coghill:

sort of threshold beyond which change happens very much more

Peter Coghill:

rapidly. So it might be. That when you're plumbing the depths

Peter Coghill:

of the bottom, you sort of fall off a cliff, rather than just

Peter Coghill:

keep finding new depths of it, yeah, so it

Nick Hare:

might be that the barrel is five times deeper than

Nick Hare:

you thought.

Peter Coghill:

Yeah. You suddenly fall off a shelf down

Peter Coghill:

into a

Unknown:

cloth, a cliff, yeah, under a barrel, yeah?

Peter Coghill:

So, you know, so it might be that Trump's seeming

Peter Coghill:

efforts to dissolve the institutions of democracy, if

Peter Coghill:

he, if he succeeds, means that they can't, you can't, then

Peter Coghill:

climb back out of that anymore. And global warming gets to a

Peter Coghill:

point where the the the Gulf Stream shuts off, and we're

Peter Coghill:

stuck in a localised Ice Age in the north in North Europe,

Peter Coghill:

Northern Europe. So there's like, it's yeah, it's not.

Peter Coghill:

Things aren't continuous, yeah, in complex systems,

Fraser McGruer:

we are. So where are we with this? At the moment,

Fraser McGruer:

we've,

Nick Hare:

well, we haven't mentioned the secretary problem,

Nick Hare:

which is not dissimilar to this kind of thing, where you're

Nick Hare:

trying to form some judgement or adopt some strategy of sort of

Nick Hare:

trying to work out you don't know how good or bad things can

Nick Hare:

get, and you're trying to work out how you know good or bad.

Nick Hare:

The current situation is, say, Yeah, and you haven't you know

Nick Hare:

that you've only got a limited sample. Well the so the

Nick Hare:

secretary problem, the idea is you've got to choose a secretary

Nick Hare:

for a number of candidates. You, let's say, you know, there's

Nick Hare:

going to be 100 candidates. You're going to see them all,

Nick Hare:

one off the other, and you can tell how good they are when they

Nick Hare:

walk in and and your job is to work out, or at least, maximise

Nick Hare:

your chances of choosing the best one. And it turns out, the

Nick Hare:

strat, the optimal strategy with this is to sample. Just treat

Nick Hare:

the first 30 as a sample against which you then, you then sort of

Nick Hare:

use that as a baseline, and you then pick the next person who

Nick Hare:

walks in, who's better than the best person from that sample.

Nick Hare:

And if that doesn't happen, well, you fluffed it. But the

Nick Hare:

thing is that that strategy turns out to be mathematically

Nick Hare:

optimal, so I think the analogy here is, well, actually, you

Nick Hare:

know, we should, you we should use the past, to some extent, as

Nick Hare:

a sample, and then make our judgments based on that sample.

Fraser McGruer:

How, how do you measure, though, and how do you

Fraser McGruer:

know that what you're measuring is the right stuff?

Nick Hare:

Yeah, yeah. Well, that's the problem. You can't

Nick Hare:

really apply it to the real world, where there's no sort of

Nick Hare:

finite, it's not like there's some finite number of samples,

Nick Hare:

but you should think in terms of, well, we've got a kind of,

Nick Hare:

there's a certain amount of information we're getting, you

Nick Hare:

know, and then there's, and then there's a, you know, a certain

Nick Hare:

amount of action that we perhaps want to apply. So, you know,

Nick Hare:

there's every, everything that happens, gives you. Gives is

Nick Hare:

valuable for for information purposes. Let's put it that way.

Nick Hare:

So on one hand, you might think, well, we don't know if Trump is

Nick Hare:

uniquely bad or whether it can get worse. Let's let it run for

Nick Hare:

a bit. Let's give him another five terms, and we'll see what

Nick Hare:

happens. And then we'll have some really good information

Nick Hare:

about how bad things can get, and then we'll know what to do

Nick Hare:

next time. But obviously, at the same time, you might think,

Nick Hare:

well, well, we don't really want to pay the potential cost of

Nick Hare:

doing that like it's not worth we think this actually might be

Nick Hare:

particularly terrible, and so we are going to try and put a stop

Nick Hare:

to it now. So I'm just, I'm just saying that, you know, it is,

Nick Hare:

there is a bit of both going on, and the amount of effort you

Nick Hare:

might think, well, the amount of effort we put into stopping it.

Nick Hare:

Put in stopping him, you know, actually maybe ought to be

Nick Hare:

proportional to how bad he really is. And we don't know

Nick Hare:

actually how bad he really is, because, you know, there could

Nick Hare:

be someone a lot worse down the line. And then we'll really want

Nick Hare:

to say, No, this one really is bad, you know, the the actual

Nick Hare:

Hitler turns up, you know, and, and then you think, Well, no, we

Nick Hare:

now, we, you know, now it really is this guy makes, you know,

Nick Hare:

compared to this guy, it makes Trump look like Bush compared to

Nick Hare:

Trump. Yeah, I mean, what I mean? It makes

Fraser McGruer:

me think, sort of everyone's sitting there,

Fraser McGruer:

sort of wondering about Hitler, and going, No, this is this? Is

Fraser McGruer:

it actually, this is as bad as it gets. Maybe they were wrong.

Fraser McGruer:

Maybe there could be someone worse than Hitler. I don't know,

Chris Wragg:

but I guess the advantage of having had someone

Chris Wragg:

like Hitler, yeah, is that other countries have, like, your

Chris Wragg:

sample, and you've got a baseline of what really, really

Chris Wragg:

bad looks like.

Fraser McGruer:

That does look so bad, yeah,

Nick Hare:

yeah, something to avoid. Yeah, it's good. So he

Nick Hare:

did us a favour, really. I mean, he was the sort of the sort of

Nick Hare:

bad secretary, yeah. And now we well, but in a sense that's

Nick Hare:

true, right? I mean, in a sense it is true that is useful to

Nick Hare:

have this historical comparison. I mean, at the time we stopped

Nick Hare:

Hitler right at Munich, if we'd have actually deterred him from

Nick Hare:

doing it, there could well have been a worse Hitler, because we

Nick Hare:

wouldn't have had Hitler. We would have had all the same

Nick Hare:

technology as we've got, you know, today, but we wouldn't

Nick Hare:

have had a Hitler to kind of switch on our, you know, Hitler

Nick Hare:

detection algorithm.

Peter Coghill:

Because, I think, you know, certainly anecdotally

Peter Coghill:

sending out. At the time, there was disbelief in in France,

Peter Coghill:

Germany, sorry, France, UK and America, about the activities,

Peter Coghill:

the sort of the genocidal activities of Stalin and Hitler

Peter Coghill:

that like, surely, nobody would actually ever do that, but only

Peter Coghill:

when presented with hard evidence. So they go, my God,

Peter Coghill:

these people are sorry.

Fraser McGruer:

So we're saying Stalin was bad as well, right?

Fraser McGruer:

Stalin was, I thought they were on opposite sides, therefore he

Fraser McGruer:

wasn't great.

Nick Hare:

I got to rethink this whole stuff. Yeah. So, so I

Nick Hare:

think, and I think that is true in general, in terms of actually

Nick Hare:

being able to get people to do things, a prediction isn't often

Nick Hare:

enough. So, I mean, you know that, as I said, like, I don't

Nick Hare:

think it's reasonable to have expected us to declare war on

Nick Hare:

Hitler after he invaded Czechoslovakia, for example,

Nick Hare:

like we wouldn't have had the support for it. It would have

Nick Hare:

looked like, you know, the UK was being the aggressive one.

Nick Hare:

You know, people were able to make excuses, and then it's

Nick Hare:

like, even after Poland, well, there's still kind of a sense

Nick Hare:

of, it's not really our business, you know, but you but

Nick Hare:

you can't. There's some point at which you can't act before it's

Nick Hare:

got worse, because people won't believe that it's not too bad,

Nick Hare:

just until it does exactly. Yeah, I wonder as well. It just

Nick Hare:

feels like a very perennial

Chris Wragg:

problem, yeah, but there's so the question of

Chris Wragg:

whether or not something can get worse, whether or not leaders

Chris Wragg:

can get worse, and what the theoretical minimum quality

Chris Wragg:

worst is, the absolute worst president is, and where, where

Chris Wragg:

the current President sits on that, that scale is one thing.

Chris Wragg:

So you know, you can say, right? Well, let's assume the best

Chris Wragg:

president is here and the worst president is here,

Chris Wragg:

theoretically. And you know Trump's about in the middle,

Chris Wragg:

right of the of the full scale of presidential terribleness,

Chris Wragg:

badiosity. Your badiosity? Exactly. That's interesting. But

Chris Wragg:

you might decide there's some level at which you don't want to

Chris Wragg:

go below anyway, regardless of how much further there is to go.

Chris Wragg:

You know, it might be like you set, you know, a height, like

Chris Wragg:

they used to have height limits for the police, for example, you

Chris Wragg:

know, you've got to be over five foot 10 to be in the police. We

Chris Wragg:

know there's people a lot shorter than that, but, you

Chris Wragg:

know, that's where we're drawing our line for this, this quality.

Chris Wragg:

You've got a rubber rugby tackle, a six foot four, right?

Chris Wragg:

Robber, exactly. Yeah, you can't be three foot four. No, no. So,

Chris Wragg:

so, yeah. So I So, I think that the point is is not, how much

Chris Wragg:

worse could it get, but what is an acceptable standard to

Chris Wragg:

perform this role?

Nick Hare:

Yeah, and, and, I mean, I get, I suppose part of

Nick Hare:

the problem is that we form our view about what the distribution

Nick Hare:

of standards should be based on historical experience, right? So

Nick Hare:

we, we don't, we don't really come free with a kind of sense

Nick Hare:

of, Well, that's the absolute line in the sand. I mean, as you

Nick Hare:

said, you know the debate about slavery, which these days we

Nick Hare:

would consider to be very much you know, the line of where what

Nick Hare:

was acceptable in 1850 is absolutely miles away from the

Nick Hare:

discourse about what's acceptable now, right? But at

Nick Hare:

the time, you know, as far as they were concerned, actually,

Nick Hare:

there were kind of all these positions in between which kind

Nick Hare:

of involved actually owning slaves being okay, yeah. And so

Nick Hare:

how do we know? I mean, the idea, then, that you might get

Nick Hare:

to a situation where it was owning slaves was as

Nick Hare:

preposterous as we think it is, would have seemed ridiculous

Nick Hare:

then. So, you know, we we might think, well, we've got our

Nick Hare:

sliding scale of badness, and you know, Trump is skating at

Nick Hare:

just where that line is. But who knows, another 100 years, we

Nick Hare:

might look back and go, God, I wish we could get Trump back.

Nick Hare:

That guy was amazing, yeah, you know.

Peter Coghill:

Or things might, things might generally improve,

Peter Coghill:

such that we think drum is a lot worse than we currently think he

Peter Coghill:

is. Yeah, a

Fraser McGruer:

couple of things, yeah. We actually need

Fraser McGruer:

to sort of draw us to a conclusion reasonably soon. But

Fraser McGruer:

this sort of feels, I don't know if you're familiar with the

Fraser McGruer:

concept. This is something called the Aleph and and it sort

Fraser McGruer:

of this feels surprisingly familiar to other sort of things

Fraser McGruer:

that we've talked about, like, how do we know when change is

Fraser McGruer:

happening, for example, but I just wanted to sort of make that

Fraser McGruer:

observation, we do found, yeah, is quite profound. Thank you.

Fraser McGruer:

Now we do need to sort of move towards a conclusion. What do we

Fraser McGruer:

got? What do you want to finish off?

Nick Hare:

I've got a well, I've got a number. Okay, so is Trump?

Nick Hare:

Is Trump? Like, well, just we've only got average approval

Nick Hare:

ratings for his first term. And as I said, of all the

Nick Hare:

presidential terms since the 50s, that he is the lowest 41.1

Fraser McGruer:

right, just to check. So when we say average,

Fraser McGruer:

is it taking average over that term, but across all sorts of

Fraser McGruer:

different kind of points? Calling sources and,

Nick Hare:

okay, sorry, no, it's Gallup. So Assistant survey that

Nick Hare:

they would, I, I would guess that, you know, every month or

Nick Hare:

something, throughout the throughout the you know that the

Nick Hare:

term they are then just taking the average, because, of course,

Nick Hare:

it always starts out high and falls Yeah. So, you know, there

Nick Hare:

are other measures you could look at, like approval after a

Nick Hare:

certain amount of time or whatever. But this is quite

Nick Hare:

it'll do, is what I'm saying. And if you is kind of, they're

Nick Hare:

roughly, they're not, but not far off a kind of normal

Nick Hare:

distribution. And if you take, if you assume it's a normal

Nick Hare:

distribution, and that each time we draw a presidential approval

Nick Hare:

rating from this distribution, Trump is sort of roughly at the

Nick Hare:

10% point right? So 41.1 as an approval rating is, is, sort of

Nick Hare:

cuts, is above about 10% of presidents. You could, you could

Nick Hare:

have, if so, if that's true, it means that he's one in a 40 year

Nick Hare:

level of badness. Okay, yeah. So basically, you know, in other

Nick Hare:

words, every 10 presidents, you get one as bad or worse than

Nick Hare:

Trump, purely, and by bad or worse I mean purely in terms of

Nick Hare:

average approval, right? And in fact, lo and behold, if you look

Nick Hare:

at the his approval at the beginning of this term, 2025 it

Nick Hare:

was actually higher than his approval at the beginning of

Nick Hare:

2016

Chris Wragg:

Ryan, believe that. And I think this is a sort of

Chris Wragg:

key factor in in that that form of measurement of average

Chris Wragg:

approval rating over the term, if you take somebody like Joe

Chris Wragg:

Biden, actually the second lowest, right, okay, so, but I

Chris Wragg:

would imagine that at the point at which it was apparent that

Chris Wragg:

he, you know, he had sort of advanced dementia, or whatever,

Chris Wragg:

that his, his, you know that that sort of six or 12 month

Chris Wragg:

period towards the end of his presidency, I can only imagine

Chris Wragg:

his approval ratings were, were very low at that point and and

Chris Wragg:

that he was deemed, you know, if you're a terrible president for

Chris Wragg:

let's say you start A nuclear war, or you're or like Nixon,

Chris Wragg:

yeah, you know, you eat one lousy foot. They call you a

Chris Wragg:

cannibal, right? Exactly at that point. You may have been

Chris Wragg:

perfectly mediocre throughout the rest of your presidency, but

Chris Wragg:

if you do one really terrible thing, right, in the last you

Chris Wragg:

know, the dog days of your your incumbency, you could be the

Chris Wragg:

worst, the worst president, yeah.

Nick Hare:

I mean, I think if you if, if you imagine having a

Nick Hare:

president who actually has dementia for one quarter of his

Nick Hare:

term, I think you might say, well, you know, that's not

Nick Hare:

great, yeah. That's not what we kind of ideally would have,

Nick Hare:

yeah. So, you know, I think it seems for that period, they were

Nick Hare:

the worst president, well, ever been? Yeah, yeah.

Fraser McGruer:

Possibly, I got a question finish off, but just

Fraser McGruer:

before we do, it makes me wonder, like, if you were living

Fraser McGruer:

in an autocracy that you know I you would still be having these

Fraser McGruer:

same debates. Let's say if you were allowed to right, which you

Fraser McGruer:

wouldn't. But let's say you're in the People's Republic of

Fraser McGruer:

China. Wouldn't publish them. Yeah, you wouldn't publish them.

Fraser McGruer:

You wouldn't talk to them about it. You huddle quietly in a cup

Fraser McGruer:

and talk about it, but you'd still be talking about leaders

Fraser McGruer:

that are better or worse than others. Yeah, I don't know.

Chris Wragg:

It's because, and of course, approval rating in

Chris Wragg:

that context is less important. It's not like approval doesn't

Chris Wragg:

count in autocracies, because, you know, revolutions topple

Chris Wragg:

them, yeah, you get killed exactly, but, but it is less

Chris Wragg:

immediate. And, you know, actually approval is, is, is

Chris Wragg:

quite a fickle thing, right? And so that's why, perhaps the

Chris Wragg:

retrospective judgement about presidents is different, because

Chris Wragg:

you actually can then look at things like what their record

Chris Wragg:

was, what did they achieve? You know, large infrastructure

Chris Wragg:

projects that might be massively unpopular at the time suddenly

Chris Wragg:

turned out to have been a really good idea. I mean,

Fraser McGruer:

it makes me think that I wonder if it will

Fraser McGruer:

always be the case that people be looking at stuff and

Fraser McGruer:

wondering, Is that good or bad?

Unknown:

Well, there's something to that's, you know, to chew on.

Unknown:

I'll let

Fraser McGruer:

you, you know, let that one sit with you. I've

Fraser McGruer:

got a question. I want to keep it on you, as presidents,

Fraser McGruer:

actually, and I was wondering if there are some precedents which

Fraser McGruer:

are kind of more or less universally viewed as being bad,

Fraser McGruer:

not good. But are there any of those presidents that you've got

Fraser McGruer:

kind of a sneaking regard for? You think, actually, there was

Fraser McGruer:

bits and pieces they did. I rather like about them. So

Fraser McGruer:

Peter, go for

Peter Coghill:

it, yeah. So Richard Nixon wasn't very well

Peter Coghill:

liked. Did some bad things. Wasn't pretty popular, but was,

Peter Coghill:

yeah, it was that. Middle of the table, turns out, in middle of

Peter Coghill:

the table. But yeah, he Yeah. Famously, was impeached for

Peter Coghill:

trying to rig the election, which is a bit of a no, a bit of

Peter Coghill:

a no go area in the United States. Well, he resigned in the

Peter Coghill:

end there, he did, yeah, yeah, but did some pretty decent

Peter Coghill:

things. So he ended the Vietnam war,

Unknown:

peace with honour. Yeah, Vietnam. He, he

Peter Coghill:

opened relations with China. Debatable.

Fraser McGruer:

China thing is very Yeah, go, yeah, quite

Peter Coghill:

a big deal. So paved the way for globalisation

Peter Coghill:

in the last part of the 20th century, which has uplifted the

Peter Coghill:

standards of life for many, many around the world, environmental

Peter Coghill:

protection, civil rights, Native American self determination and

Peter Coghill:

lowering the voting age plus space exploration, the

Peter Coghill:

continuing the Apollo missions throughout his tenure. Yeah.

Peter Coghill:

Okay, so some big things

Unknown:

good old Nixon.

Chris Wragg:

I also, what I also really like about Nixon is that

Chris Wragg:

he had a chip on his shoulder, and that he railed against the

Chris Wragg:

sort of liberal intellectualism, and he hated that sort of clique

Chris Wragg:

of ivy league, sort of Kennedy type, right? Exactly. So

Chris Wragg:

personality wise, I'm much more on his side as a bit of an

Chris Wragg:

outsider, not a not a terribly naturally popular man. I

Chris Wragg:

thought, yeah,

Fraser McGruer:

yeah, no, absolutely. I think that's some

Fraser McGruer:

good points there.

Nick Hare:

Chris Nick, well, I I'd like to put in a word for

Nick Hare:

LBJ, you still mind go, yeah. Keep going, yeah. Well, he

Nick Hare:

mainly because he was obsessed with his balls. I'm not

Nick Hare:

interested in the he was always going on. It was apparently used

Nick Hare:

to ring up his tailor and moan about the fact that his

Nick Hare:

testicles weren't sitting comfortably, and like, where,

Nick Hare:

where his knob should be, and stuff. But he used to get,

Nick Hare:

apparently used to get his genitals out, to to sort of

Nick Hare:

deliberately intimidate people and things. I mean, I just feel

Nick Hare:

like that's not I feel like, if

Chris Wragg:

Donald's not used enough, I feel like,

Nick Hare:

if Donald Trump did that in a way, nobody would be,

Nick Hare:

nobody would be. I actually think it would raise an eyebrow,

Nick Hare:

even if Donald, like Donald Trump, has done incredibly

Nick Hare:

outrageous things, I still think he got his, he got his genitals

Nick Hare:

out. It would make the news.

Fraser McGruer:

I think you're probably right. Yes, I wonder if

Fraser McGruer:

it made the news at the time

Unknown:

with LBJ, though I doubt it was no biography, yeah,

Unknown:

yeah, yeah.

Fraser McGruer:

We've done everyone. We have done Chris.

Fraser McGruer:

Oh, sorry. Chris,

Chris Wragg:

yeah, well, Nixon would have been my shout. But I

Chris Wragg:

also have a, have a strong, sort of soft spot for George W Bush.

Chris Wragg:

I think he was just an extreme, like in terms of presidents that

Chris Wragg:

actually do what they think needs to be, needs to be done.

Chris Wragg:

You know, act on the basis of integrity. I felt he did.

Chris Wragg:

Whether he got things right or not is another matter, but I

Chris Wragg:

felt like he's one of the few presidents you can look back on

Chris Wragg:

that didn't feel like a bit of a shyster. And he also did a lot

Chris Wragg:

in terms of tackling HIV and AIDS in, you know, across Sub

Chris Wragg:

Saharan Africa. So, I think, and he came up with the that

Chris Wragg:

immortal line, didn't he about the problem with the French, as

Chris Wragg:

they have no word for entrepreneur, which I think is,

Chris Wragg:

is just such a brilliant quote.

Chris Wragg:

So,

Fraser McGruer:

so George W Bush, yeah, no. Good shout. Good

Fraser McGruer:

shout, yeah, I shan't bother because LBJ was mine for the

Fraser McGruer:

same reasons. Yeah. All right, lovely. Let's stop there. You've

Fraser McGruer:

been listening to the cognitive engineering podcast, brought to

Fraser McGruer:

you by Aleph insights and produced by me, Fraser McGruer.

Fraser McGruer:

If you haven't already, please like and subscribe. We try to

Fraser McGruer:

release an episode every week or two. If there are any topics

Fraser McGruer:

you'd like us to cover, please do get in touch via email. You

Fraser McGruer:

can find out more about Aleph Insights at Alephinsights.com

Fraser McGruer:

thanks as always for listening until next time. Goodbye.

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