Is your supply chain ready for the holidays? Today, hosts Scott Luton and Karin Bursa break down the biggest challenges shaping global supply networks this season — from tariff uncertainty and inflationary pressures to shifting consumer expectations and the ongoing semiconductor shortage. Welcome to The Buzz, powered by OMP!

Scott and Karin are joined by Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Company, to explore how consumer behavior continues to evolve, including the accelerating move toward online shopping and the rising demand for fast, reliable delivery during peak holiday periods.

Together, they discuss:

• The ripple effects of tariffs and inflation on pricing, availability, and inventory management
• How the semiconductor crisis is reshaping automotive supply chains worldwide
• The growing role of artificial intelligence in improving supply chain agility and decision-making
• Strategies for maintaining resilience and responsiveness in a volatile market

Listen in as we unpack what’s driving today’s supply chain challenges — and how leaders can stay ahead of the curve this holiday season and beyond.

Additional Links & Resources:

• With That Said: https://bit.ly/WTS-9Nov2025 
• OMP: https://omp.com/
• U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index: https://bit.ly/scn-us-bank 
• Manifest 2026: https://bit.ly/ManifestSCN
• NAM 3Q Survey: https://bit.ly/NAMsurvey3Q 
• OMP eBook: Making AI Work for You: From Explainable to Agentic: https://eu1.hubs.ly/H0pgvWp0
• National Tree Company:https://shop.nationaltree.com/
• Chris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrisbutler101/
• Gartner Survey Shows 49% of Organizations Lack Confidence in Future Manufacturing Strategy: https://gtnr.it/4hUQfQr 
• Learn more about Supply Chain Now: https://supplychainnow.com
• Watch and listen to more Supply Chain Now episodes here: https://supplychainnow.com/program/supply-chain-now
• Subscribe to Supply Chain Now on your favorite platform: https://supplychainnow.com/join
• Work with us! Download Supply Chain Now’s NEW Media Kit: https://bit.ly/3XH6OVk
• WEBINAR- Inside the Cargo Theft Surge: Insights & Predictions for 2026: https://bit.ly/4oVAsms
• WEBINAR- Inside Outdoor Cap’s Warehouse: How Voice Picking Elevated Daily Operations: https://bit.ly/49m4D1z
• WEBINAR- Supply Chain Strength: Strategies that Deliver in any Economy: https://bit.ly/4hqTnTH

This episode is hosted by Scott Luton and Karin Bursa, and produced by Trisha Cordes, Joshua Miranda, and Amanda Luton. For additional information, please visit our dedicated show page at: https://supplychainnow.com/buzz-insights-holiday-consumer-behavior-1506

Welcome to Supply Chain now, the number one voice of supply chain.

Join us as we share critical news, key insights and real supply chain leadership.

From across the globe.

One conversation at a time.

Hey, good morning, good afternoon, good evening wherever you may be.

Scott Lewton and the one only, Corinne Bursa here with you on Supply Chain now.

Welcome to today's Live stream.

Hey, Corinne, how you doing today?

I'm doing great.

It's a fantastic Monday morning and Scott, it is a great day to be in supply chain.

There's never moment.

I knew it.

You dropped it early as you should because I completely agree with you.

And it's a great day to be in Atlanta.

I love the brisk weather we got here today.

I love it.

I step outside, I'm ready to tackle the day after I, I soak it all in.

But Corinne, we've got speaking of great things, we got a terrific edition of the Buzz, folks.

Y' all know every Monday at 12 noon Eastern time, we discuss a variety of news and developments across global supply chain.

Really global business news that matters is what we like to call it.

And Corinne, the Buzz is powered by our right, a software and consulting company delivering advanced supply chain planning solutions specifically tailored to individual industries worldwide.

You can learn more@omp.com okay, Corinne, so we got so much to get into here today.

We've got we're going to be following up on a key automotive supply chain challenge that's playing out out there.

We're going to be touching on the US Warehouse market which is getting hotter and hotter.

We're going to be offering a supply chain leadership pulse check delivered by the one and only Corinne Versa.

We're going to be talking about some of the biggest issues facing business leaders out, including tariff uncertainties and inflation.

All that more.

Plus in about 10 minutes or so, we got a great guest, Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Company who's going to be sharing some really interesting insights, including some of the holiday consumer behavior shifts they've been tracking.

All that and a whole bunch more.

Corinne should be an outstanding addition of the Buzz, huh?

I know.

Let's get started.

The supply chain movers and shakers are waiting.

I completely agree.

And folks, as you weigh in, let's follow Trish's advice.

Say hello and let us know where you're tuned in from.

We love connecting those dots.

So Corinne, there's four things we want to get into before we bring on an outstanding guest here today.

We're going to start with our latest edition of with that Said, which published over the weekend.

Now we celebrated and we, we led with this and with that said, we had two big milestones.

Not only did we just publish 150th edition of with that said, the whole team, it's been an outstanding journey.

Corinne.

Oh my gosh, that's amazing.

1500.

So 10 times the number of.

With that said, oh my gosh.

Well, most importantly.

Well, Corinne, it's been as you know, a big team effort, but most importantly, big thanks to our wonderful supply chain now global fam for joining us on this extraordinary journey.

So what do we talk about?

And with that said, well, we use one of my favorite automotive dad jokes there.

How many parts does it take to build an automobile?

All of them.

Right.

Well, we followed up.

I mentioned that topic, that big topic, big challenge in automotive supply chain circles everywhere.

Nextperia.

I think I said that right.

It's a Chinese owned Dutch semiconductor maker what continues to work through a variety of challenges as holding up shipments of their chips to automotive customers across the globe.

In fact, a Honda plant in Saleya, Mexico, I think I said that right.

Has shut down production at least until November 21 due to next period shortages.

Some say the tentative China US Trade deal will help Brazil resolve the problems.

Stay tuned.

We also featured a great story from Max Garland with Supply Chain Dive, who's I tell you, he's one of the best in the business, especially in the logistics space.

Max reported on how warehouse demand here in the US it continues to rise.

Right.

So that lots of resources, tools, live events, you name it.

Give with that said, a read and let us know what you think.

Corinne, did you happen to work in a little bit of weekend reading with that set?

Of course I did.

And let me just comment on that lead story on the chip crunch continues.

First of all, let's talk global for just a minute.

We've got a Dutch company operating in China with a Chinese owned manufacturing facility that is supplying a Japanese owned auto manufacturer for a plant in Mexico.

And then you sprinkle in a little tariff turmoil in the mix as well.

And you talk about, about complexity because you know these are important parts, raw materials for the assembly plant.

And so the best planning I'm sure has gone around this.

Nobody was surprised by the order, it's the delivery of the order and getting that all synchronized.

So you know, as manufacturers attempt to get back in the, in the driver's seat to orchestrate their supply chains, you know, disruptions and shortages continue, whether it's geopolitical or other supply side disruptions.

Yes.

But I just, I had to chuckle at kind of the global, just the big moves in that equation.

Corinne, well said.

And you know, all the articles I've been consuming on this topic, a lot of them have big statements from big automotive brands that are trying to not only plan for the current challenge, but plan for, to prevent it from happening again.

And all of them to an individual talk about how it takes a lot of time to find a quality supplier to step into what they're doing and what they're getting from next period.

So we'll see.

We're gonna keep our finger on the pulse.

And a lot of folks are reporting a little bit of a breakthrough.

We'll see and we hope that the tentative China US Trade deal does indeed help.

Folks, give with that said, a read and let us know what you think.

Moving right along.

We got a great guest, folks.

Stick around.

Chris Butler with National Tree Company is here.

Corinne, we got a big leader as a guest here today.

Got a big leader that I'm co hosting with today.

You work with all the movers and shakers out there.

It's hard to believe supply chain organizations are really busy right now.

Not only are they working through peak season, but they're dealing with a variety of old and new challenges as well.

We just touched on a couple.

Given your work, you got your finger on the pulse like few do.

What is one of the top priorities for world class chief supply chain officers right now as we dive into another supply chain leadership pulse check?

Yeah, I think, Scott, really the big challenges we've just talked about is tariffs and the uncertainty around the tariffs.

And what that means is that as a chief supply chain officer, they're relying on their team to run multiple scenarios for their business honestly with their current suppliers.

For short term needs.

They can change suppliers, you know, in the longer term horizons, but that takes time.

So working through those details, the different scenarios is absolutely critical.

So simultaneously, chief supply chain officers are looking for some wins with artificial intelligence.

Intelligence, the whole C suite is looking for corporate wins with AI, whether it's in the area of predictive and analytic AI generative in the way their teams are interacting with systems, or if we're going all the way to agentic and they're able to actually automate portions of their planning process, lot of focus there.

And they're looking for wins.

They're looking to stack up some wins to show progress and either better decisions, more precision, more scenarios so that their teams have greater confidence in network performance.

Yes, that's right.

While they free up time for those precious teams, they're doing such great work.

Excellent perspective there from Corinne Bursa.

Really quick.

Andrew is back with us from Shropshire.

I think I said that right.

Andrew, great to see you and I appreciate you sharing some great resources after last week's show.

Let us know what you think here today here on the bus.

Okay.

Speaking of resources, Corinne, I got two more things we share before Chris Butler joins us.

The first of those, hey, one thing that chief supply chain officers and really all business leaders out there making decisions need.

Well, that solid information, insights and analysis.

Our friends at U.S. bank provide that on a regular basis, on time and in full.

US bank released their most recent freight payment index on Thursday.

October 30th is just about 10 days or so ago.

And after some surprises we saw in Q2 Korean, including national and across the board regional shipment volume increases, the new data showed that the freight marketplace regressed in the third quarter.

And as we do each quarter, in fact, Corinne Versa joined us last quarter.

We had a great economist with the with the ATA.

We're going to have the podcast ready soon, coming up really soon so you can download that.

And in the meantime, Corinne, folks should go out, not walk.

We're dropping the link.

Tricia's already on it.

Drop a link right there in the chat to do just that.

Corinne, really quick.

This is, you know, when you fold this in with a variety of other resources, data driven resources and boots on the ground insights, you roll it up.

It's a pretty powerful recipe, huh?

Yeah, it's a great resource.

I love the quarter to quarter comparisons and looking at this as a real indicator of commerce of what happening in the market today because these are products that are in motion.

Right.

They're moving to distribution points or out to customers.

So great resource.

I love that they, they come and share it with the supply chain now, fam on a regular basis every quarter.

Right.

They're bringing it to us, giving additional insights.

But download this report because it's a great resource to look at as your business grows or as you look at optimizing your current network.

Well said, Corinne.

And hey, one, one more little tidbit here.

Two of my favorite parts I think.

Number one, we've got to better understand history, right?

Because that's how we identify trends and better plan for what's ahead because we understand it more.

And secondly, I love the blend.

It's not just freight data.

It's a blend of economic data, industry data and trends.

It's really a nice holistic resource.

So check it out again.

Trisha's dropped link right there in the chat.

T squared holds down the fort for us on YouTube is back.

Says bring on the nourishment is coming.

It is coming here today.

Got Nadeem tuned in again via LinkedIn from Saudi Arabia.

Welcome, welcome in.

Great to have you here.

And Leah Kim is back From Seattle on LinkedIn.

Lee, I'm gonna be up in your neck of the woods this week at a great Amazon Reshape event.

So great to have you here today.

Okay, one more thing, Corinne, one more thing.

What's that?

They've been, they get their, they have their act together.

They plan well ahead like the rest of us Supply chain folks do 150 sessions over 150 sessions over 400 speakers across three days of innovation, strategy and real world insights that all shape the future of supply chain.

Prices are about to increase Friday, November 21st.

You don't want to lose those dollars.

But the good news folks, our supply chain now audience members have a great opportunity to save a couple hundred bucks off the current price which is 900 bucks off the show up on site price.

But you got to get your registration in now, Corinne, we're going to have to get you to Vegas with us in February.

You ready to go, Corinne?

Vegas is definitely the place to be in February and Manifest has grown year over year.

And last year you had a great show.

You were there.

I think you were exhausted afterwards.

You may have needed a couple of days of R and R. There were so many conversations happening and I know it's going to be bigger and even better this year.

So true, so true.

And yes, my feet still hurt from last year.

We were on the go throughout two and a half days there.

So looking forward to it, folks.

Check out the link.

Tricia is dropping resources, making it really easy for y' all to check it out.

And if you're there at Manifest, give me a shout.

Love to connect.

And Ahmed, great to see you.

Also from Saudi Arabia via LinkedIn.

Looking forward to your take here today.

Okay, Corinne, are you ready?

We've got a terrific guest as promised.

Are you ready?

I'm ready.

You're always ready, Corinne.

You're always ready.

Well, as I mentioned, folks, we've got a terrific guest joining us here on the Buzz, powered by our friends at omp.

Chris Butler is the Chief Executive Officer of National Tree Company where he leads the organization's growth across E commerce, omnichannel, retail and global manufacturing operations.

That's quite a full plate.

Now, with a career spanning over two decades in consumer products, digital commerce and retail strategy, Chris has a proven record of driving revenue growth, optimizing operational efficiency and building higher, higher performing teams.

Not just high, higher and higher.

Prior to joining National Tree Company, Chris held senior leadership roles at Advantage Solutions, Mondelez International and Nestle Waters.

Please join me in welcoming Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Company.

Hey.

Hey, Chris.

How you doing today?

I'm good, Scott.

I'm good, Corinne.

How are you guys?

Well, I'm good, Corinne.

We really enjoy talking shop and talking holiday trends in the pre show.

We should have published that as a separate podcast.

And we're delighted to have Chris here today, huh?

Absolutely.

It's your season, Chris.

This is it.

It's definitely our season.

Sales are ramping up exponentially.

You know how it works.

It's, you know, October starts a little bit and then November every weekend, basically the sales are exponentially larger than the prior weekend.

So until you hit, until you get Thanksgiving weekend where it's absolute peak and you know, all hell breaks loose, saves there for a While and then December 15th is cut off there.

As you know, FedEx ups no longer Gap deliveries and, and then post Christmas.

Post Christmas and post New Year's is a big, big sales season.

One of our customers does about 60% of their volume post Christmas, which is amazing.

And then by January 15th, it's then slows down and it's kind of restarting all over again, you know, putting our orders through and everything.

But yeah, it's a business that never sleeps.

But yeah, peak season is absolutely right now.

Well, Chris, you've already shown you've got your finger on the pulse.

Tell you of the business and of industry.

Stay tuned folks, as we dive into some big topics.

But first, but first I want to start with a fundamental question.

So, Chris and Corinne, this first day is the stuff of my nightmares.

This International Accounting Day.

Yikes.

My least favorite topic.

It's also the United States Marine Corps birthday.

It's World Science Day.

But here's a special one, that one I want to use to pose a couple a fun warm up question to both of y'.

All.

So with that in mind, Chris, I'm gonna lead with you here with that in mind.

What is one show, TV show, you name it, that was completely inseparable from your childhood or your upbringing?

Oh man, that's a tough one.

Only the people in England would get this if you're a very old English person like myself.

So I'll say Grange Hill, which is kind of like a kid soap opera about a bunch of unruly teenagers at a London school.

So you know, and then as I got a little older, the A Team, Knight Rider, you know, all of the Hasselhoff specials.

So yeah, that was my formative years, which had an intelligent answer for you, but that's what I watched as a kid.

Well, I love it.

And I'm so disappointed because I guess I'm old because that's how you preface your answer.

And I love the 18.

And Knight Rider I got check out Grand Chill.

That was a new one to me.

Don't waste your time.

I'm sure we did at the time, but I think it's probably past its prime day.

Corinne, same question to you.

What was a big show when you were a kid?

I was a fan of Sesame street when I was young.

Young.

But I have always been kind of a techie.

And so Star Trek was a show that I always watched and I'd watch it with my grandmother who I guess was way ahead of her time.

But just think of the number of things where we had had recorders and communicators and now we're all walking around with all of those things.

So I'm just waiting to say beam me up, Scotty.

I'm ready.

Well, Corinne, I'm so glad we established you're a fellow Truckee.

I learned something new and I've known you for a long time.

Live long and prosper.

That's what supply chain organizations are everywhere trying to help us all do.

Right.

And Gene Roddenberry, you mentioned just how forward looking, you know, he had an incredible vision and as you mentioned, it's so interesting to see kind of what we enjoy today and how he basically predicted it and put it into shows, you know, a long time ago.

So.

All right, couple quick comments.

Mesfine, great to see you via Ethiopia, via LinkedIn.

Great to see here.

They're looking forward to your perspective.

And Amanda says she loved Sesame Street, Mr. Rogers, the fraggles, and of course Reading Rainbow.

Good stuff there.

All right, so we got to get to business and we got to talk about some tough topics that aren't nearly as fun as Big Bird and Elmo and you name it.

But start with some context.

Chris Butler, you and the team have been on the move National Tree company for years now.

Let's level set.

Can you tell us a little more about what the organization does?

Yeah, sure, absolutely.

So National Tree is the leading artificial decor company in the country, specializing in Christmas decor.

So trees, wreaths, garlands, outdoor, indoor.

We do some other seasons as well, you know, Easter, spring, some shrubs.

So we've been around for 50, 60 years now.

But yeah, it's, it's, it's an amazing industry.

If I can take a few seconds on that, you know, America, you know, 85% of Americans celebrate crypt Christmas with a tree.

So you're looking at Almost, you know, 100 million households, about 80% of those households celebrate with an artificial tree.

So definitely more of a leaning in the States to artificial trees.

And you know, every year we, we do a survey and we try and find out, you know, where people are buying and what they're buying and what they look for in a tree.

And you know, every year we say, you know, what are some of the things that you want to see in a tree or you would prefer as a tree.

And you know, again, 85% of consumers are looking for a, a full green triangle basically with lights.

So you know, the trends don't necessarily change too, too much.

About 30% of those of trees are bought online.

You know, that number stayed fairly, fairly stationary.

I think people like to feel and touch and get a Full view of it.

But of course, with online, you have the ease of purchasing and the, you have a Honda Civic.

It's tough to get a seven and a half foot tree in the back of that from your local Walmart.

So we definitely see a decent percentage of people buying those online, which is where we mainly sell.

I've tried to do that in the Honda Civic.

So you're absolutely right, Corinne.

I love the, I love the trends that he's got his finger on the pulse of and I love that he's coming to us.

He's, it's like he's surrounded by his products there and they're all gorgeous.

What'd you hear there, Corinne?

Oh, absolutely.

I, I am surprised 80% are using artificial trees.

I say I'm surprised.

We switched to artificial probably about five or six years ago.

And then, Chris, we've added every year.

Yeah.

To the assortment.

Right.

So there's multiple trees now.

And in fact, we put ours up this weekend.

So thank you very much and we are good to go.

And the outdoor decor and I would say our neighborhood, some of these inflatables are really like Santa's village has popped up just down the street for me.

So it's pretty impressive.

Yeah.

Love it.

As we were talking pre show, some families have a real tree and then some artificial trees in the kids rooms or different rooms of the house.

And whatever it takes to get you into the holiday spirit.

One of the things that artificial trees don't do is they don't bring that wonderful pine scent into your home.

But National Tree has these things called scent sickles.

Is that, am I saying that correct?

That's correct.

Scent sickles, yes.

They are fabulous.

So they're like, you hang out like an ornament in your tree.

And so when you get close to your tree, it smells like fresh pine everywhere.

It's really genius.

Smell of Christmas in a bottle, for sure.

Yeah.

Yes.

Love it, Chris.

And I also loved your, your perspective there.

You're really tied to customers and what they want and you're certainly not sitting on your laurels.

It sounds like you're rolling out some new innovative products.

Let's do this.

I want to talk business and get you to wait on some broader topics.

But first, Nadeem says he loved Star Trek as well.

Captain Spock was his favorite character.

Nadim, you and millions of other people.

Leonard Nimoy, he was quite the actor.

Okay.

So just last week, Corinne and Chris, I was sharing some findings from the national association of Manufacturer Third Quarter survey, where manufacturing leaders, you can see it there in front of you.

Cited their top current business challenges.

And this probably doesn't surprise anybody.

Trade uncertainties, including tariffs, a whopping 78%.

Number one, primary current business challenge.

So we're going to drop a link to this survey.

There's a lot of good stuff here.

But Chris, I want to get you to weigh in on how you see tariff uncertainty.

And it's not so fun.

Cousin inflation influencing a variety of factors.

Let's start with your thoughts on how all of that's been impacting pricing and availability first, Chris.

Yeah, for sure.

So 90% of the Christmas decor business was made in China.

And so historically, you know, 90% of all items to do with Christmas or came out of that country.

You know, we moved a few years ago, we started to move out of China just from a, just for flexibility, diversity perspective.

I think it just makes a lot of sense to do that from a business perspective.

But, you know, the industry still remained there.

So when the, when Liberation Day came and tariffs started to really hit, you know, a lot of companies had made some moves because of the warning of tariffs, but a lot of companies hadn't.

And so that became a mad scramble, especially when tariffs went to 145, 145% on China, oil production stopped in the country.

So oil production in China basically came to a grinding halt while companies tried to figure out, well, we can't afford to bring in, you know, product that are two and a half times more expensive than they would be normally.

So a lot of things stopped for about 30 days.

There was no production on Christmas.

A lot of companies also moved and quickly try to find other supply chains.

You know what's interesting, I saw your piece about the automotive industry.

It's not easy, but it's not as difficult to find factories to set up shop in other countries for make Christmas trees.

Christmas trees don't require the same number of parts as a car, for example.

So, you know, it is a little easier.

But it did gum up and slow down the entire supply chain of raw materials moving from country to country, etc.

Etc.

So, you know, we also then when the 145% came back down, we saw companies, retailers beginning to reorder from China at the 30% rate and, but at a lesser level because I think at that point companies were starting to get worried about consumer demand and the consumer profile going into the season.

So from a supply profile, we definitely think there'll be less supply in the season.

Right now we brought in about 20% less than we did last year.

But again, not sure what that demand profile looks like because I'll get into that now, I guess the demand profile of the season, you know, consumer uncertainty, I think is tough.

The cost of the product, definitely there's a small cost increase on a lot of products.

Manufacturers have eaten some of it.

You know, we've eaten some of it and we have passed on some costs to the consumer.

You know, we know that, you know, a lot of companies in the industry have passed on costs, again through public information, just seeing prices this year versus prices last year.

So, you know, I think supply is tighter and costs have slightly risen.

Not astronomically and not breadline type supply situations, you know, but, but certainly it's impacted, impacted both of those.

But the biggest concern for me right now and the biggest concern going into the season is one of the other things you had on your chart and that's consumer sentiment and consumer demand.

And you know, in this business you never know, you know.

Right, exactly.

The weekly domestic economy there.

So you never know what's going to happen.

And you know, what we've seen so far, you know, Halloween we've heard was soft.

Our Halloween was okay, but Halloween across the board we heard was quite soft.

And then what we're seeing right now, definitely demand has been soft so far versus last year.

So again, you know, I think consumer behavior has changed and we can talk about that a little bit later.

But you know, I do think that demand is going to be a little soft right now.

So you're probably going to start to see, you know, retailers offering deeper discounts to try and get us to buy some of the inventory that they have.

So all in all, difficult year.

And I think, you know, I liked what you said earlier about the chief supply chain officers.

I think it's, you have to be flexible and you have to be fast.

And obviously the more complex your supply chain is, the more difficult that is.

Again, I think, you know, our team has done a great job of pivoting a lot.

We got ahead of it a little bit, which helped us.

But you know, we've had to pivot many, many times this year between countries, between factories, between items, different source of kind of distribution, selling to our customers.

So it's definitely been a challenging year.

I'm proud of the team and I would 100% agree with what you said.

You know, flexible and fast are the key attributes of any good supply chain organization.

Well, so Corinne, I heard a lot there from Chris.

I'll start with this because he mentioned all this, the complexity or the challeng depending on the complexities of your supply chain.

I am so glad.

As someone that has made parts for the automotive industry in my past, I am so glad I'm not an automotive here in the in recent years.

Secondly, he mentioned, you know, costs, input costs, other costs.

Someone's got to eat it, right?

Some companies have been somewhere.

Some companies have absorbed that more so than others.

Some are passing along to customers for sure.

And one last thing he touched on, which we're talking about in every single conversation almost as often as AI is uncertainty.

And it's interesting, I was reading a great article from the World Economic Forum.

I mentioned this earlier last week.

It was focused on how we quantify uncertainty and a lot of economists, a lot of analysts that look through, you know, decades of data point to the current uncertainty as being historic in terms of how it's impacting global business decision making.

Corinne, your thoughts on what we heard there from Chris?

Yeah, I think we're all much more sensitive on a global basis now and our expectations are very different as consumers, we've been trained to be more aggressive about our expectations as well.

The one thing that I would add that obviously Chris deals with every day is his portfolio is very seasonal.

Certainly.

Chris, I think you said you do a lot of other seasons other than the holiday, the Christmas season, but this has got to be the big one for you.

I would think with lots of inside and outside decor is set to a central part of the celebration of the holidays.

So on top of all of that volatility, his team has got to think in terms of, you know, excess inventory at the end of the selling period as well.

And we're going to touch on a similar topic in just a second.

Corinne, as usual, you're predicting the future and you're really good at that.

Maybe Chris is too, based on what I'm hearing.

Really quick, folks.

Trish is dropping a link to that survey that we've referenced a couple times.

Check it out.

What I shared there is just the tip of the iceberg.

There's tons of good insights there.

Also, one other thing I want to share a quick resource with all of you good people out there.

Cool resource from the team over at OMP who are powering the buzz all month long in November.

New ebook entitled Making AI Work for you.

From Explainable to Agentic.

Kind of what Corinne was talking about earlier.

This ebook explores how decision centric planning powered by Unison IQ enables organizations to move beyond explainable AI toward truly agentic systems.

You can check it out.

Trisha is dropping the link as I speak.

Good stuff.

Okay, so Corinne, I'll pick back up on what you're just sharing.

Chris.

Smearing.

The smearing effect, right.

It's been in play for years as retailers have spread out sales and deals across the year rather than just at the end.

I'm going to share a couple things here.

You know, holidays, Chris, think you mentioned Halloween earlier year, right?

Perfect example.

It's been promoted in stores in the spring, in recent years, months before the ghouls and goblins show up at your door for trick or treat.

And in fact, some folks have dubbed this trend as Summerween.

But here's a what behind this, Chris and crank, get this, the National Retail Federation.

Corinne, you know we look for data, facts, not feelings, right?

The National Retail Federation has been polling Americans on whether or not they celebrate Halloween.

They've been doing it for clearly decades.

So no wonder retailers want to capitalize on the sentiment and demand kind of throughout the year, more so than just in a, you know, 30 day cycle.

So Chris, your thoughts on the smearing element that's been at play for years.

Really?

Yeah, no, it's super interesting.

You know, again, year after year as a consumer, it drives me crazy when I see Valentine's candy, you know, on December 1st, you know, but, but, but I get it.

You know, it's all of these candy companies shoving their inventory into the stores because if it's there, it sells, it's expandable consumption.

Right.

Guarantee someone who buys a huge bag of M and Ms. Valentine's candy on December 1st that is not lasting till the February 14th that's gone by December 2nd and then they'll keep buying, et cetera.

So, you know, it makes sense from a retail perspective.

Retail is a brutal business and so you want to make sure you get your product in front of consumers as much as possible.

You know, the interesting thing about the interesting thing about Christmas, you know, really, you've got Halloween on, you know, October 31st, obviously, and on November 1st, it's immediate.

Everybody's mindset changes into, into Christmas mode.

You definitely see trees, wreaths and garlands and other things put up in some retailers earlier than that.

But typically, you know, November 1st is that big turnaround you know, it's interesting, a few retailers this year, because of the supply chain issues, theirs aren't going up yet.

They haven't gone up, and they won't be going up until the middle of November, end of November.

So.

Which obviously is a disaster for them.

But yet in general, smearing is, is here to stay.

And you know, like you said, Summerween makes.

Makes me shake.

But, you know, as a seller of Halloween goods, I'll take it.

And we will.

We will take those fine customers who buy from us in all around.

That's right.

I'm probably the oddball here, but to one thing Chris mentioned, Corinne, just the last few days, my family went straight to Christmas.

My kids, Amanda, you name it, straight to Christmas.

I'm like, hey, timeout, time out.

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the entire year.

And it's like Rodney Dangerfield.

It gets no respect.

It gets no respect.

But Corinne, whether it is that yearly challenge or the smearing that's been at play, again, this is not nothing new.

Your thoughts will hear different, Chris, and what you see out in industry.

Yeah, well, I think it's.

It's important.

And what, what Chris mentioned is, you know, is a technique that's been in place for a while and that is demand shape.

And, and so especially around these highly seasonal celebrations, if we can stretch that time period out, that gives us a bigger opportunity to sell.

So as manufacturers or retailers look at actually shaping or incentivizing demand, promotions, et cetera, if the floor space is available or the endless aisle of online ordering is available, then that opens up a longer selling period and an opportunity to move more product over a longer period of time.

So I think it's very real.

I think the season, especially for the highly seasonal celebrations.

That's right.

You gotta get those dollars when you can smoke them if you got them.

Chris, were you about to add one more thing for us?

Shift over to consumer references.

Just think about that Valentine's candy.

Anything but those terrible hearts that have been around for 100 years.

That they're all pasty thing.

Oh my gosh.

Gotta throw those out.

Okay, so I want to dial in as y', all, if y' all can't already tell, man, Chris and the team, they are dialed in on consumer preferences and behaviors.

I'm going to share a couple of facto.

And we're going to get Chris and Ren both the way in.

So Capital One released some interesting research earlier this year.

None of this will surprise you.

I bet 64% of American consumers shop in stores on a Weekly basis.

I'm one of those because I bet I'm in my local Kroger about every other day.

I have no idea.

You would think I can plan better.

That's just, that's just reality.

You have three young children at home.

That's got something to do with it.

Thank you.

That's right.

Only 24% of consumers prefer to purchase furnishings and appliances online.

That doesn't surprise me at all.

About 20% of US consumers prefer to purchase groceries and household goods online.

And I bet that number's growing.

I think we get, with the exception of our trip to Costco, we get all of our groceries Online.

Consumers are 148% more likely to select ship to home over in store pickup, which is the second most popular fulfillment method.

And here's one more to get this, Chris and Corinne for each day a delivery is late, right?

Each day a delivery is late, consumers are 1.1% more likely to return ecommerce purchases.

So that clock is ticking.

So Chris, when it comes to holiday consumer behavior in general, what shifts are you tracking, Chris, especially related to timing of purchases and E commerce versus in store?

Yeah, it's great question.

There's a lot of stats there.

So, you know, one of the things is consumers have again, the peak for us is the Thanksgiving weekend.

And so, you know, a lot of consumers wait until Black Friday through Cyber Monday and then, you know, Tuesday.

Those five days are by far our busiest through the year.

We've seen that concentration of buying more and more as the years have gone on.

So I think more and more consumers are becoming more deal savvy.

So from a buying perspective, that is the absolute peak for us.

And you know, we'll do 60 plus thousand packages a day across our network during that time.

It's a lot of trees, you know, so I basically live at the warehouse not because I can add any value or help, but because I like walking around.

And you can learn a lot of, you know, when you look at the labels, the shipping labels, like you learn a lot.

You know, you see, oh, all the pallets go into one particular, you know, customer or one particular retailer.

You just get a lot of insights and things when you're live on the ground.

But you know, the other thing I'd say to your point in terms of late orders, the closer you get to Christmas, the more important that delivery date.

So if you're buying your tree on Black Friday and it says, you know, deliver to your home by December 10th, that's not great.

If you're buying on Black Friday, it says deliver to your home in two days.

Then that's, that is a major indicator of buying that product.

So price, promotion, style, those are all important.

But the time it takes to get that product delivered during the season is probably the most important differentiator between choosing an item or not choosing an item.

So, you know, for us that means we have to have an excellent kind of outbound system that's very tied to our customers.

So yeah, it's, you know, delivery.

I didn't know that stat late delivery is really interesting.

And you know, overall our industry tracked it about the same as the furnishings industry.

So about 30% of our business or the industry's business is sold online.

Most of our business is online, but 30% of the overall industry is online.

I think it's because again, people like to touch and feel to get an understanding of what they're buying.

Well said, well said.

Really quick aside and a big thanks to Amanda and Tricia behind the scenes handling production every single day along these lines of consumer preferences.

Folks, you could check out a show we did last week with our friends at easypost.

Amanda, let's drop a link to that last week.

Lots of data and better what shippers can do about it.

Corinne, as expected, Chris is his fingers on the pulse.

Right.

Of what customers want both now and maybe next year, maybe next five years.

What did you hear there from Chris?

I really appreciate the insights from Chris and the national tree business as a kind of a bellwether of what's happening certainly in these highly seasonal periods.

I'm with you though.

I think that the shipping and shipping direct to home home is important, especially for larger bulk items or things I'm buying in quantity.

Right.

If you're decorating the outside of your house and you're putting up Christmas wreaths, you may not just put up one, you may put in the south.

We put them on several windows.

So, you know, we've got five actually on the outside right now.

So when you think of that in that those bulkier items, you made a joke earlier about, you know, carrying a tree home on a Honda Civic.

It's nice to get that delivered to your door and so that becomes important.

And I agree with Chris's point about, you know, having confidence in getting delivery in, you know, a day or two versus a two week window of time makes it a little more uncomfortable, especially with all of the challenges in supply chain.

So customer experience is critical because I'm going to assign my overall experience with the item I'm purchasing.

The retailer may Get a piece of that, you know, if I'm in the store.

But it's all about that brand protection and making sure that we're creating raving fans for the business as well.

And folks, for all of you shippers out there, one thing we talked about last week, Chris and Corinne, is don't assign that brand promise to a third party or if you do, do so at your own peril.

Because to Corinne's point, customers that brand promise runs from the time they first stumble onto the site and select what they want until the time they get it back or get it home, unpack it and use it.

Any point in there there.

Your brand certainly is at risk for any bad experiences.

Okay, we got so much to talk to you about, Chris.

We're going to have to have you back.

Really have enjoyed the time here today.

Let's do this.

One more question I got for you is how can folks connect with you and the National Tree Company?

I think I got a little snippet Your, your site snows as we're selecting Christmas trees.

I love it, Chris.

So, yeah, this is our site, nationaltree.com so that is the best way.

But we're available on Amazon, Wayfair, Walmart, T. Target, Michaels, Macy's, Coles.

So all of the major retailers, you'll be able to find our products.

But you know, one of the best places is our own website, nationaltree.com it.

Is just that easy.

Corinne, I think me and you might be on that site later today.

What you think?

I think there's some potential there.

I'm trying to hold back given everything that we put up this weekend.

There's, there's always.

Listen to you.

There's always just a couple more things.

Just a little more, you know, true.

Let's see here.

Trisha is dropping the link.

Link.

Check it out right there.

You want to click away from checking out the great work and products that Chris and his team are bringing to bear.

Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree company thanks so much for being here, Chris.

Thanks so much for having me.

I really appreciate it.

All right, Happy holidays.

We'll see you soon.

You got it, Corinne.

I love it.

We're going to have to have Chris back.

I love his perspective he shared not just on cool things they're doing at National Tree company but man's understanding of supply chain and economics and fantastic.

I really enjoyed that.

A CEO that can talk supply chain to me is always ways that much more interesting, I think and just brings to the forefront how important supply chain is to a business Right.

And a business that is manufactured overseas, whether it's in China or elsewhere.

He gave us a couple of really good examples of some of the big moves that National Tree has taken in response to tariffs and changing patterns of buying periods and all that kind of good stuff, too.

Yes.

Well, you know, you beat me to it.

I was gonna ask you some key takeaways and you just shared it.

You're reading my mind here today.

Today.

But folks, if you do interact with National Tree Company, we'd love to hear from you, give us your experiences and your thoughts.

I'm really impressed with his appearance here today.

All right, so, Felicia, our dear friend Felicia Prisbala is back with us here.

Felicia, great.

So great to see you.

We're talking about those consumer preferences earlier.

She says, I have grocery delivery, Walmart or Instacart two to three times a week.

It saves me so much time.

Hey, completely get it.

That resonates with me for sure.

And Amanda also.

Same.

She says same.

Felicia.

It used to take three to four hours on the weekend to put my list together, go grocery shopping, and then unload it all.

Now I order Saturday night.

It's all delivered Sunday morning.

Nice priceless convenience.

Corinne, how do y' all do groceries?

We do it the old fashioned way.

Except I have made one upgrade when I got married 30 some odd years ago, and that is that my husband does most of the grocery shopping, so he likes to go in person.

He's a big produce guy, so he's still out there, you know, touching and inspecting the local produce on a regular basis.

And so I, I get to piggyback on that except for big celebrations.

Then I've gotta go and, you know, do some of the heavy lifting for Thanksgiving, for example.

You know, speaking of produce, I saw in that capital owner research, there's a ton of data there, but I was surprised to read that Almost somewhere between 2 and a half, 3% of all produce is sold online.

How about that?

So times are changing.

All right, Corinne, a second ago here, we got a couple more things to wrap up here on the November 10th edition of the Buzz, powered by our friends at OMP P. You were just talking about the importance of supply chains, the importance of supply chain leaders.

Here's some Gartner research that came out just a week or two ago.

And this research doubles down on what many of us already know, the importance of strong CSCO leadership.

The role of the chief supply chain officer, of course, is essential in driving alignment between supply chain manufacturing while adapting strategy for the wave of innovations on the horizon.

Horizon.

Gartner says at least their survey.

The research says that 49%, 49% of organizations lack confidence in their manufacturing strategy to deliver on future business outcomes over the next one to three years.

However, survey respondents reporting to the CSCO are 68% more likely to feel their strategy is effective compared to respondents who report to the coo.

So Corrine, your thoughts on this research?

A couple of things.

One, the headline is a headline, right?

49% of organizations lack confidence in their future manufacturing strategies.

So not necessarily what's happening today in their manufacturing environments, but their ability in the future for AI driven automation, some robotics, process improvements, et cetera.

Gartner is telling us that they're going to see a stall, a stall in advancement here.

But the thing that you just highlighted on manufacturing and those organizations where manufacturing or reports into the chief operating officer versus manufacturing into the chief supply chain officer or the csco, I am fascinated by this continually because to me, manufacturing is a pivotal part of the supply chain and it should report organizationally into those programs.

So that when we're doing things like shaping demand in the future or we're looking at quick ship options and different ways that we're leveraging our production capabilities, we want that synchronized with the whole supply chain.

And even though you can do that inside of an organization, I think reporting in to the same C suite individual really accelerates that process.

Yeah, I have not dove into deep into the research, but at a high level, not only do I agree with you and I think there's one other element here at play and it's an obvious one, I think, to me at least, we were just talking about it really.

It's been a theme throughout the whole show.

Supply chains touch the customer so often.

And when I think about effective strategies that are really rooted in reality, course they're connected like none other with customers and what they really want.

There's no fooling when it comes to what customers want.

And so when I see that the survey respondents that are reporting up to and into the CSCO's office, naturally they've got that supply chain connection, which means they've got the customer connection, which means the strategy is much more rooted in that reality that's so, so critical, important.

Now again, that's a generalization.

I get it.

I'm not saying coos can't do that or don't do that, but that's.

That was one of my first thoughts as I read this research.

Corinne, your response.

And then we're going to share a Quick event with folks.

I think the research underscores what you're saying.

Right.

68% are going to be more effective according to the Gartner research.

So it's recent in, you know, taking a look at the market dynamics.

And I don't want to infer that the chief operating officer doesn't care experience because I think they do.

It's just having it as part of the actual fabric of what's happening in supply chain so that you don't have this, you know.

Oh well, we gave them the production orders to run.

Right.

And then they, a different group in the organization went and ran them.

I think thinking of it holistically from a culture perspective is very, very important.

And chief supply chain officer has a seat at the table.

They're a strategic lever in the business, business.

So let's make sure that everybody's focused on the same priorities and we're removing any of those roadblocks.

Yes, you said it much more eloquently than I did.

And I would just add that chief supply chain officers were delivering on the customer experience long before customer experience became, became formal study.

Good stuff there, Corinne.

On a related note, one of my favorites, Noha Samara.

Not only is Noha going to be back with us with Mike Griswold and a few weeks, but Corinne, we're going to be out at the Gartner supply chain planning summit in Denver.

Right.

I think they just wrapped up the one in London, I think.

Yep.

Last week in just a couple weeks there in Denver, is that right?

That's correct.

Looking forward to it.

And certainly Noha Samara is one of the very well respected analysts that will be there there with Gartner.

So true.

And we only can hope that by the time that rolls around that the government is up and running and air travel all the, I mean I feel so bad for all the people out there, kind of kidding aside, but the people that are still working, not getting paid and then all the travelers.

Folks, I don't have to tell you all this because we're all feeling it together.

Gosh, all the delays and the redirects, more uncertainty out there.

So hopefully, hopefully I had one holiday wish.

I think Steve Martin had a SNL skit on that way back in the day.

But if I had one wish, I hope all of that is back normal so that all the hardworking folks out there can take a minute and celebrate the holidays with their families.

Corinne, I'm gonna give you the last thought and then we're gonna wrap today's edition of the Buzz.

I'm with you.

I hope that all gets settled this week.

There's, you know, some news this morning that makes it promising that, that we'll, we'll be able to reopen everything and make sure everybody's paid and, and has the resources that they need.

So if you are a government employee that's been directly impacted by this, not just because of your travel plans, but other things, we, we're with you and we're, we're thinking about you.

But it's just another example of the uncertainty in the marketplace today, right when we think of geopolitical events and the impact that they have on our households as well as on our businesses.

So I'm going to say, Scott, it's a great time to be in Supply Chain because you guys understand this, you understand what you can do to make a difference, to increase the visibility and resilience of the, your, of your businesses.

And so I just want to applaud everybody that's here getting things done on a day to day basis.

Well said, Corinne.

Me too.

Folks, on a much, much lighter note, thank y' all for being here today.

Appreciate it.

Hearing from folks really around the globe.

Really enjoyed Chris Butler, CEO with National Tree Co. Really enjoyed his perspective.

We're going to work hard through his agent, rock and roll agent, to get Chris back.

We'll have to do a, a review once we get a new year.

We'll do a review on a holiday season and then and see what lessons learned they had.

We dropped a lot of links.

I'll tell you, Tricia is on it, making sure folks can connect with some of the resources and the people that we mentioned here today.

Big thanks to Corinne Versa, my esteemed co host.

Corinne, what a great episode of the Buzz here today, huh?

Oh, it was really interesting and Chris Butler really brought it today.

So thank you so much for all the insights you shared.

And Scott, once more, congratulations on the milestones for the team at Supply Chain.

That is amazing.

Congratulations, man.

I tell you what, it feels like we just started.

Maybe we're just still getting started.

We'll see.

But I appreciate that, Corinne, great to have you as part of this journey and Big thanks to the team Karakoze.

That's right.

Noha is incredible and great guests.

Much like I talk about incredible, the extraordinary Kurai Kozay.

Great to see you.

Maria tuned in from beautiful Spain.

Great to see you.

And folks, hang in there, there.

Hang in there.

We're going to get through these crazy times together.

But most importantly, you got to take something today.

You got homework, folks.

You know, we got a challenge with some homework.

Each and every show, take one thing you heard from Corinne or from Chris and share it with the team.

Put it into practice, deeds, not words.

That's how we're going to get into an exciting new future and continue to transform global supply chain while we do it.

So with all that said, I'm gonna have to hold hard hitting always on the move.

Supply Chain Now.

Team Scott Luton challenge.

You do good.

Give forward.

Be the change that needed.

We'll see you next time right back here on Supply Chain Now.

Thanks, everybody.

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