Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave
05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?
10:40 - When is the recession coming?
13:13 - The outlook for inflation
18:36 - The problem with designification
21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy
27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?
31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and China
36:12 - An epic boom in emerging markets
40:20 - The structural growth in China
43:28 - Middle East joining forces
46:53 - Dealing with the debt
50:43 - Inverted yield curve and the bond market
54:09 - How will AI affect the economy?
59:22 - Good advice and book recommendations
01:02:00 - Thanks for listening
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