In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer breaks down the competing peace proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine and explains why each carries major strategic risks. The discussion examines a U.S.-backed 28-point plan that largely accommodates Russian territorial demands, Ukraine’s alternative 20-point framework emphasizing demilitarized zones and reconstruction, and Europe’s growing role as Washington signals limits to its long-term involvement. Beyond the battlefield, the episode explores Russia’s mounting economic strain, its struggle to sustain a war economy, and Ukraine’s increasingly effective deep-strike campaign against Russian infrastructure. The conversation widens to assess ripple effects across Europe and Asia, where allies like Japan and South Korea are rethinking defense self-reliance amid uncertainty over U.S. commitments. Ultimately, the episode asks whether peace is realistic.

Takeaways:

1. Proposed peace plans risk legitimizing territorial conquest
2. Ukraine rejects any deal surrendering sovereign land
3. Demilitarized zones would require risky international enforcement
4. Europe is accelerating defense independence from the U.S.
5. Russian military faces equipment shortages and manpower strain
6. Ukrainian deep strikes are degrading Russia’s war economy
7. Global allies are reassessing reliance on U.S. security guarantees

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