In this episode, Justin and Jared dive into several key topics shaping today’s financial landscape. They discuss Kyle Busch’s lawsuit against Pacific Life and what it says about life insurance, the growing trend of advisors moving away from broker-dealers, and the latest shifts in used car prices, housing, and interest rates. They conclude with a look at AI’s influence on the economy and what these changes mean for investors.

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Welcome to Financial Planning for Oil and Gas Professionals, hosted by certified financial planners Justin Brownlee and Jared Machen of Brownlee Wealth Management, the only podcast dedicated to those of you in the oil and gas profession to help you optimize investments, lower future taxes, and grow your wealth.

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Welcome back to another episode of FP O N G Financial Planning for Oil and Gas Professionals.

This week on the podcast, we're going to do a lightning pod.

We're going to tackle a few different topics.

10 minutes or less.

We're going to talk about Kyle Busch suing Pacific Life over a life insurance policy.

He was sold.

We're going to talk about the growing number of advisors who are departing from wirehouses and what that means for the world in the future.

And we're also going to talk about used car prices.

Used car prices are dropping, delinquencies are moving up and kind of what that means.

But Justin, before we start, surprise segment, right?

This is where I ask you a question.

You don't know what the question is and you just got to give me an answer.

Just whatever rolls off the cuff.

You are stuck on an island and you get one beverage and an I and an ipod touch with one album.

What are your weapons of choice?

Okay, one beverage.

Here's the thing.

If I'm stuck on an island, Jared, I can't live without coffee.

So coffee.

I think we probably have to go coffee.

And if we don't go coffee, we have to go caffeine adjacent.

I'm thinking Mexican, Coca Cola, maybe.

I could also go for that pure cane sugar, Dr. Pepper.

So.

But I, I really think if, if I'm giving you one answer, it's gotta be coffee.

It's gonna be a pour over.

It's gonna be beans that were roasted in the last five days.

They're gonna be just incredible coffee beans.

And they're probably going to be roasted in our, like, fancy pour over machine that we have in our Fort Worth office.

So not sure if this island is ready for the infrastructure that's coming on the coffee front, but let's go coffee now.

Ipod touch.

I have to pick one album.

I am really tempted to say my kids have loved the Zach Bryan album.

Not a big pop culture guy.

So I'm going to, you know, look a little ignorant here.

I don't have the slightest clue what any of his albums are called.

I mean, I don't even have a guess.

I have a playlist that I've curated on Spotify over The last, you know, many years.

It includes so many albums, so, boy, I'm pretty stumped.

So I. I think that's my answer.

Some sort of random Zach Bryan album.

Oddly enough, Zach Brian's really not on my curated Spotify playlist at all.

And this is the first I've ever heard you mention Zack Bryan, so I'd be curious how that.

And you didn't even know the name of an album.

Yeah, I've never been to a Zach Bryan concert.

Like, I'm a. I'm a 6 1/2 out of 10 fan.

I like his music.

I don't know what any of his albums are called.

I kind of like that.

Maybe the best way to get to know an artist is by getting introduced to their music on the island.

That's a great point.

Unconventional take.

Awesome.

Well, all right, let's chat about life insurance.

So Kyle Busch is suing Pacific Life Insurance, and, like, it's all over everywhere.

And basically the claims that were made is it.

Was it.

The policy was misrepresented, Right?

And it's an indexed universal life policy, which is permanent life insurance.

He's alleging that if he made five years of premiums at a million dollars a year, beginning at age 52, he would be able to withdraw $800,000 a year.

Justin, what do you think about all that?

Jared, this is just an unbelievable story.

Iul really?

Any cash value?

Permanent life insurance.

The vast, vast, vast majority of them are terrible.

These policies are sold.

They are not bought.

And this is a classic example.

There's some details in this story that blow my mind.

If you're watching us on YouTube, I'm putting this in quotations, so my hands are both up.

We're doing the quotations.

Financial advisor, quote, unquote, sold him this policy that had $5 million in premiums going into this life insurance policy.

I want to say the advisor was paid a 35% commission, and this happened immediately.

So think about this.

This advisor is getting, you know, almost $2 million in a commission, if I'm tracking this correctly.

That's unbelievable.

And, yeah, this is a terrible policy.

This has become so much more difficult these days to make it as a life insurance agent because, Jared, how did people hire financial advisors 40 years ago?

They probably asked their neighbors, right?

No one does that today.

They ask their neighbors.

And then you know what they do?

They go to Google, they go to chat GPT and they begin to do research.

Who should I hire?

How to hire things to watch out for.

I think our generation as a whole is Just pretty skeptical.

And so we like to kind of investigate and vet things out.

So this whole track, if you are kind of entering financial services and you're selling life insurance, it is an incredible uphill battle because literally every week that goes by there are thousands or Americans that are doing this research and they're figuring out that you should, you should run from anyone selling life insurance in this manner.

Dave Ramsey has probably been the prominent voice on this front.

He has coined the phrase that whole life insurance or cash value insurance, basically any life insurance that is not a fixed lowcost term policy.

He calls it the payday loans of the middle class.

So predatory, terrible financial products.

And I think that's what we're seeing here with Kyle Busch, the NASCAR driver, in an 8 million doll lawsuit over this.

What else do you see here, Jared?

I would say that product stinks, but I would say Iuls don't stink in general.

They're just grossly misapplied in the vast majority of cases.

Right.

Like if you think about, like if I, if I buy insurance for estate planning, I need permanent life insurance, right.

And like, like if I have a business and I have liquidity constraints and my estate can't manage the liquidity, irrevocable life insurance trust with some of these types of policies could make a ton of sense.

But this is not the use case that Kyle Busch was hoping for or intended.

Right.

And it's like, like this is not some like no name, like made like this isn't a Ponzi scheme.

This is wasn't some no name person.

This is like Pacific Life, the company that does like all the sponsors, all the college football, right?

And like you see their commercials everywhere and they just have the, the most peaceful whale ever.

A big beautiful whale.

Pacific Life has paid over the last 20 years they've paid over $6 million in fines to various regulators.

Right.

So like this is just something that they deal with, you know what I mean?

Like this is just the reality of being in the business and that's.

And that's what's paid to state regulars.

That's not even what's been settled out of court or anything like that.

So like it's crazy that in this day and age there's still like people getting sold policies like this and also, right, like these people are like repeat offenders and they're continuing to sell policies like this.

They have paid that much to state regulators.

Yes.

$6 million.

Yeah.

Is what I'm seeing.

And that's over the last 20 years.

You have all of these very well known nationwide life insurance companies.

This is how they operate.

And I do, I will read my exact notes in here because it kind of conveys how I think about this.

So one of the notes I wrote, Jared, not all annuities are bad.

So annuities have gotten a terrible wrap.

And I do want a ton of.

Annuities are probably not in the best interest of who purchases them, but not all annuities are bad.

I do think the vast majority of cash or whole or index universal life insurance policies outside of a fixed term, I do think like 99% of them are bad and the 1% that are not are.

Jared, the exact use case that you just mentioned.

Yeah.

An estate planning tool to provide liquidity for potential estate taxes or maybe a business by sell type agreement where permanence is a necessity.

So term insurance cannot fit the bill.

Permanence is a must.

Here's something I want to even say there and I know you agree with this and we talk about this all the time.

It's always been billed where, hey, most life insurance is bad.

Like Dave Ramsey is right, the normal person shouldn't buy life insurance.

But it's an incredible estate planning tool.

I think something we talk about a lot, Jared, and I do want to say it here.

You can solve for estate liquidity without using life insurance.

So it's possible that it's a great use case in that scenario, but it's emphatically not required.

And in many cases you don't have to do it.

There are other ways to solve that problem.

I will say one of the things about insurance is there's estate liquidity is the timing is perfect, right?

Like you can match, you can match up the.

When the cash becomes available to exactly the moment you need it.

But yes, that is just a tool in the tool belt, right.

I would say generally with insurance like this complex life insurance that has big commissions, there's also a big variance in commissions, right.

This is an egregious policy, right.

You could probably get a comparable policy for much less than 35% upfront commission.

Even all that being aside, I would say I would approach insurance.

I would say it innocent until proven guilty, right?

Like if you just, if somebody sells you, sits you down and tries to sell you a policy, just Google is policy a good idea.

And there's probably somebody who's done some sort of analysis of understanding the mechanics so you get a really good idea of that.

And like again, like A lot of these policies are sold, not bought.

Like what problem is life insurance functionally solving for you?

And it's kind of like a spork, right?

If you want it to be tax free investment, if you want it to be your retirement accumulation portfolio, if you want to provide estate liquidity, if it's trying to do all these things, it's probably not going to do any of them well, right?

So the more, the more things something tries to solve for, the more hesitation you need to have in pursuing it.

But Justin, I, I feel like, who is Kyle Busch's team, right?

Like, it seems like at that level of wealth you would have like a, A, a financial quarterback, if you will, who could kind of vet these deals, right?

And like, that's kind of one of the things I'm surprised of is like this didn't even pass the smell test, right?

Like he, he said, if this is true, is that, hey, you put in a million dollars for five years and then you could take out $800,000 a year, that's, what is that, a 20, 25% withdrawal, 20% withdrawal rate.

It doesn't really, really take anyone to spend any amount of time to realize that that math purely doesn't work, even absent a fee, right?

So like, I don't know, I'm just kind of, I'm kind of dumbfounded that how, how has he even sold this policy?

Did he not have anyone in his corner?

Right?

And it gets to something we talk about a lot is like, hey, I, you need somebody, you know, your advisor's not gonna advise you on everything, but they need to be in your corner looking at stuff, maybe even outside of their purview, thinking about balance sheet optimization.

Because like, again, a lot of these people will sell you products and they might sound good, but they don't actually serve a need.

And you look under the hood and there's a lot of contingencies and it's actually way more expensive and doesn't mean a need.

It's constantly amazing when you read, whether it's professional athletes or if you read family office reports, people even at the highest levels of wealth do not do a good job hiring advisors.

And it is pretty jarring how many people at the highest levels of wealth are still in an advisory relationship with just wild conflicts of interest.

And so I think it all comes back to that.

I do want to make a really quick point on this.

This is going to be a little bit of an uphill battle for Kyle Busch to win this lawsuit.

And so this insurance company like all insurance companies, they, marketing wise, they can position themselves as a financial advisor, which sounds like they are giving financial advice.

We are not financial advisors.

Instead we are salespeople.

The reason why that's important, if you're listening, is that means that legally they are not under a fiduciary standard, they are under a suitability standard.

So these lawsuits get brought up all the time.

This one's in the news because Kyle Busch is famous and the dollars are huge in this one.

But this is going to be an uphill battle because they can claim, hey, we weren't giving him financial advice, we were just selling him a product and this product is reasonably suitable.

I think the other lesson here is like access.

Like if, if Kyle Bush isn't getting a good policy, you're probably not going to get one either with way, way less money and influence.

Right.

Like if you're swimming in this pond, you're probably not going to get a sweeter deal than Kyle Busches.

So like, there's like, there's an interesting lesson in here of like, I would just generally avoid these things unless there's a really clear and compelling reason that you've decided for yourself, not someone else has decided for you as to why it fits into your financial plan.

Totally.

All right, Justin, let's talk about used car, like the state of the used car market.

This is just kind of like a fascinating, I would just say anecdote, but I mean, cars are kind of wild.

I think the price is, you know, the delinquencies.

Let's say we have this awesome chart just just under 5%, which is, you know, the largest we've seen in pre.

Since pre Covid levels and also pretty close to what we were seeing in great recession times.

What do you, and I guess what do you kind of.

What are your general thoughts about that as you hear that?

I mean, I think the question that everyone's been wondering is can we ever get back to a time where you can buy a reasonable car at a reasonable price?

Obviously the pandemic happened and car prices, well, buying a car, getting a car became a task and then getting a car at a reasonable price was not possible.

So it is interesting.

You know, wholesale prices have apparently dropped for 25 weeks in a row.

So is that potentially a sign that we're on the path to getting reasonable, affordable pricing?

Again, I would say probably not.

Right.

Like, I mean, that's the thing, right?

Like inflation slows down, but it's like a new base we're operating off of.

Right.

Like it never gives up the beach head that it took.

That's right.

That's exactly right.

That's exactly right.

So, like, I don't know, like, do these things make it more affordable around the, around the edges?

Yeah.

Like also, with the private equitization of everything that you and I always talk about, the average car price just continues to move up.

Basically.

You know, features just become baseline and standard that there's, I would call feature expansion.

And, and I think interest rates are also a big part of the story here.

Right.

Like, so long as interest rates stay high, there's just not a ton that can be done.

I think, you know, there's just so much like, I think it'll improve, but like not meaningfully to like a pre Covid time.

What about you?

Yeah, that's right.

And I do think, you know, the point that you made is important to reiterate that even if pricing becomes normal, you still have to deal with the dynamic that no one's making actual cars anymore because every car maker has figured out that it's far more profitable to Instead just build SUVs and then they can make kind of 30,000 the absolute baseline for a bare bones new car instead of 18,000.

The marketplace is just seeing only the more expensive options.

And that's going to be a factor whether interest rates go a certain way or whether just the car market in general normalizes.

I would also say that they use delinquencies rising.

I mean, that's not a great sign.

But also we're just kind of coming off of like a crazy base where like the average, like I think this is a delayed signal from like the market digesting higher interest rates.

Right.

And like kind of like higher for longer in this kind of new, new economic reality, if you will.

So like, it's definitely something to watch and it's not, it's not encouraging.

Right.

But I don't think like this is like sound the alarms.

It's all going to Hell in a handbasket.

Get scared.

Right?

I agree.

I think this is kind of tangential.

You, you added this into, into the show notes.

But talking about, it's kind of like the same thing here.

Like, hey, the average long term US mortgage dipped to 6 point, which is the lowest in a year.

But like, that just feels too high for me.

That feels like a nothing burger.

It's like, hey, this is the lowest and it's in a year.

That hasn't changed the supply demand equation in any meaningful way.

I don't think there's anybody who goes, man, it was 6.8, now it's 6.2.

So my payments, like they're not anchored to that.

They're anchored to five years ago at.

2% on that point.

Jared, Harvard University has a joint center for Housing Studies and they're saying that the lower interest rates have not offset the effects of high home prices.

And effectively the data is just saying, well, homes are still just sitting on the market and activity is not really speeding up.

Which I take that to be something that makes a lot of sense that it's just homes are really expensive and interest rates are one component.

Right.

Of making a home more affordable.

That's the thing is like, I think there's a short term bias, right?

Like, like everybody's like, oh man, houses are sitting on the market now.

It's like, yeah, that's probably a good thing, right?

Like our housing market is normalizing.

And again, right.

Like, you know, volumes are down, but we're operating off a base where like nothing sat on the market.

People were buying stuff side on scene with things waved.

Like for most of American history in the housing market, there was a healthy amount of inventory and inventory kind of sat on the market a little bit, right?

And like, so like, I think this is all just kind of things normalizing.

When you see the headline of like mortgage rates are down, it's like to, they're down from an astronomically high amount to a more reasonable but still overly high amount relative to the last 10 years.

That isn't going to do anything to the marginal buyer.

Quick example on this.

Pretend that we're talking about an $800,000 house.

Well, if you purchase that house last year, you might have had a 7 1/2% interest rate.

And so if you're comparing the exact same price with those two different interest rates, I mean, Jared, it's 6,000amonth is your mortgage payment with property taxes and insurance included for the 7 1/2% interest rate, 6,000amonth.

And at 2 1/2% it's 4,000amonth.

And so you're talking about a 50% increase on the same house.

And so a more apt comparison is probably, well, that 800 is now 1.2, in which case, oh, and the property tax is higher.

So now we're comparing 4,000amonth to 8,000amonth.

And that is for the exact same house.

And so I'm not surprised interest rates came down a little bit.

Harvard is saying, well, it's not really boosting home sales yet.

Not surprising.

That gap, that spread is massive.

And so interest rates would have to come down a lot more for it to truly ignite home sales.

Speaking of things that I don't think the economy has fully digested, I think new rates are one of them.

You like what I did there, Justin?

The next thing is you posted this talking about AI and its economic boost not showing up in the gdp.

Business Insider had an article kind of talking about that.

Justin, what was kind of the essence of that article and what do you think it means for our listeners?

So that was interesting.

Business Insider reported on this.

It's coming from Goldman Sachs.

The premise is that the AI economic boost is not fully portrayed in GDP yet.

So AI is adding 160 billion to the US economy.

Goldman is saying, but only 45 billion appears in GDP because of how growth is measured.

Now, I think a tangent to this topic is just, I think a lot of people are sharing the idea that, well, the S&P 500, the US economy is kind of in a little bit of a bubble and the stilts that are barely propping it up for the potential of future growth is just betting on AI being some game changer.

I think we'll continue to see what happens in the coming years.

It's also kind of like the stock market is not the economy.

Right.

Because like, let's say this is good.

Part of the way this shows up in the boost in GDP is companies improving efficiency or increasing your earnings per share in a less capital intensive way.

Right.

Which could be bad for the consumer because the entry level position could be reduced because a lot of AI can do a lot of this stuff.

So it's kind of.

But, you know, which would kind of Increase potentially unemployment.

Right.

So there's so many, the intricacies and the interdependences just make it very hard to say, hey, here is exactly what's going to happen and here is the consequence of that happening, right?

And then, okay, how much of that is priced in and is AI boost good?

Depends on what industry you're in, what level of work you do and you know, like, is it good for me personally, my future job prospects?

That's a highly personal question.

I think the applications are still not very well understood, but I do think there's an insane unlock in terms of what it can do to our economy for sure.

Final thing you wanted to talk about today, there's a brokerage house exodus.

You want to talk about what is going on, why you think it's happening and what it means?

Absolutely.

So this topic has been reported on by a few different publications, but the gist is this, advisors, financial advisors are leaving wirehouse firms in droves.

And so real quick, Jared, what is a wirehouse firm for our listeners?

Justin, you came from one, so I want you to explain it.

How about I just give the five biggest ones, Wells Fargo, ubs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, those are kind of the big monsters that everyone knows.

And so big nationwide big box, you know, giant financial service firms.

Now for really the past 15 years there has been a growing exodus.

So there has been a steady flow of financial advisors leaving those wirehouse firms.

And the biggest recipient, the biggest boom has been independent RIAs like us Jared, like Brownlee Wealth Management, Fee only independent investment firms.

Now it is to get dived into some of the numbers.

So a few things to point out.

Remember this data is very, I mean you always need to wait about a year, couple years to get the full report on, on who's leaving and where they're landing.

We have ISS Market Intelligence as well as investment news, noting that the rate of departure, they've lost about 10 to 12% of their of their staff in that time.

Tom and that's like I said, this is a regular phenomenon.

It's really not new but it's always interesting to see these numbers pop up because it continues to emphasize just how regular and how this, this movement isn't dying.

The idea that hey, most financial advisors are going independent, they're leaving firms that are not fee only and they're joining fee only firms.

And again, the quick difference there, Historically a fee only firm has always legally had to be a fiduciary.

They've had to do what's in your best interest.

Now we've had a myriad of fiduciary laws at the federal and the state level in the last five, even 10 years.

So that's kind of muddied the waters a little bit to be able to say that well, everybody kind of has to be a fiduciary.

But wirehouses have fought that tooth and nail, which is really interesting.

They have spent millions of dollars lobbying Washington to fight fiduciary laws, which is kind of funny, spending millions of dollars effectively to lobby against their own clients.

I think we can cover a lot here.

Jared, what all should we talk about on this topic?

My guess would be it's, it's part of it is a generational thing.

Like I think big brand, big box brand used to equate to trust and now I think big box brand is not necessarily like a symbol of trust in the way it was.

Right.

And like, like early on, like if you wanted a job in this profession, going to work for the big brokerage firm was probably this the best way to build external credibility because there was no social media, there was no right.

There's no way to demonstrate your expertise like, like on a podcast or something like we're doing now.

So like getting that name attached to you used to be a good thing.

Right.

And then also they didn't really understand the underlying mechanics of how this firm was working, how they were making money when they, when they had lawsuits filed against them and things of that nature.

So it made sense in the past.

I think going forward, I think the small firm will continue to win.

I think people connect with people.

The independent space is all about getting the enterprise infrastructure and the autonomy to implement for your perfect client.

Right.

And so I think firms will become more specialized and I think everybody wins in that case because I think you can't do really good work if you're doing it for 10 different client sub demographics.

So I think this is better for consumers.

I'm not surprised it's happening.

I would be curious to see what percent of those people that are leaving the wirehouses are going independent or just hanging it up entirely, hanging the cleats up because our profession is also old.

Way more people on the twilight of their career than at the very beginning.

So I'd also be curious and I'm sure I know I don't see it in here, but it is an interesting idea to think about who is gathering that market share, if anyone.

I think that's a great point.

I mean, when I think about this growing trend of people leaving giant firms and going independent, I mean, my story is exactly this.

I knew I wanted to be at a fee only firm, you know, more than a decade ago.

Jared, to your point, not only is our industry old, our industry was very slow to kind of migrate to the fee only fiduciary movement.

Ten years ago, it was really hard to find a good career path at a fee only firm.

The vast majority of them were tiny firms that had no career growth opportunity.

I remember, you know, my best next option was Fidelity, just because Fidelity was kind of the best of the bunch in terms of way less conflicts of interest and wonderful opportunity to build a career.

I remember thinking, I would never send them to a hybrid duly registered firm.

I would never send them to a discount brokerage, to any sort of brokerage, to a wirehouse.

I would send them to a fee only firm, full stop.

It went something like, at this point, if you are still working with a broker, I honestly think you're out of your mind.

And it just reiterated that idea that, hey, I would never have my parents work with an advisor who's not fee only.

And then you see it in the New York Times, hey, if you're still working with an advisor, that's not fee only, you are out of your mind.

And Jared, here's the thing.

None of the wirehouses are fee only.

So if you're at Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, ups, JP Morgan, you're.

You're failing that super basic elementary test that you know, if a financial advisor is going to manage your money, they should at least pass that test.

I also want to reiterate the name brand thing that's been a major force in this.

If you're trying to start a career and you want to convince people to hire you as their financial advisor to give you money, their money to manage Guess what?

It's pretty helpful to have Merrill lynch behind your name.

Ubs, even Wells Fargo.

Guess what?

It's a demerit.

It's a negative to have that today.

People hate bank of America, Wells Fargo.

Wells Fargo has been in the news a comical amount of times for doing things that.

It almost makes you laugh how much they hate their own clients.

That's the story here.

That's why it's happened in droves.

That's why it's happened just tens of thousands of people leaving them.

And that's why it's probably going to continue to happen.

Yeah, but it's just opportunity for people like us to win.

I guess it's the business owner in me.

But I like, I have like a, what I call the super bowl effect, where if I see a company that can afford a Super bowl commercial, it just feels like a misallocation of capital.

Right?

Like, it's just like there's too much, like there's too much money for, like, if you could afford a Super bowl commercial just to the general public, you don't have a clear enough audience or you're overcharging is, like, my gut reaction as somebody who, like, is like a business owner and, like, thinks about, like, marketing spend and getting snitching and all that stuff.

So, like, I think that's just.

That's a general good rule of thumb.

I think it'll continue.

It's sad that, like, it'll still keep that.

It's a slow burn, Right.

I think inertia is one of the most powerful forces in finance.

Right?

Like, there's a good chance inertia led Kyle Busch to that iul because it was a friend, it was a family, they had momentum.

Seemed like a nice guy.

Right.

Like, it was just kind of one of those things you woke up when you made a terrible decision.

Right.

And it was probably a bunch of little decisions along the way.

And I think this migration will continue to happen, but it'll be.

It'll be a slow burn.

And.

And we welcome all the brokerage house refugees with open arms, ready to serve you at a much more reasonable price and go much deeper in your.

On your.

In our relationship.

Absolutely.

Well played, Jared.

Cool.

Well, that about wraps it up.

For those of you listening or watching on YouTube, you'll notice that I'm in Justin's chair, so it feels weird to be doing this from his chair.

He's recording remotely and I'm in our office and I'm on the side he's usually on.

So it feels Feels weird to sign us out over from this side from this side of the office, but great being with you all.

Love hearing ideas for future episodes podcasts @brownlee wealth management.com thanks.

We'll see you next time.

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