Episode #156: Even two years after the coup, the Tatmadaw continues its campaign of terror, disrupting communities, causing a massive refugee problem and destroying the country’s infrastructure. And because the military looks for loyalty rather than competence in choosing personnel, it has led to incompetent economic managers heading the country’s banks. Not surprisingly, the result is the effective collapse of the country’s economy. This is the subject of today’s episode with Zach Abuza, a professor at the National War College and specialist of Southeast Asian security and politics.

Abuza also expresses a fear about the proposed upcoming elections, which are most likely to be a sham. He believes that any election will result in at least some part of the international community accepting military rule in Myanmar, putting the NLD between a rock and a hard place: If they boycott the election, the narrative will be that they refuse to participate in democracy; and if they participate, the election will be rigged against them.

Addressing the hypocrisy of pro-democracy countries failing to support democratic efforts in Myanmar, Abuza says that, at the end of the day, a country’s support is largely one of self-interest. Most nations in the West have limited trade and investments in Myanmar, and so intervention is not an economic or political priority for so-called champions of democracy. Plus, without a figure like Aung San Suu Kyi, the NUG lacks someone who can command the attention of Western policymakers.

And while Abuza is sure that PDFs will never defeat the military through combat, he asserts that the Tatmadaw will soon realize they do not have the necessary manpower or resources needed to win the war, which will result in increasing defections. However, in the meantime, Abuza emphasizes that in spite of the long pent-up desire to forcefully redress past wrongs caused by the military, the NUG must maintain a moral high ground.

Yet Abuza emphasizes that the military’s mentality will not allow them to back down gracefully. High-level military leaders, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, are “are surrounded by sycophants who tell them what they want to hear. They’re happy to rule the country and run it into the ground because they think it is their birthright to do so.”