Transcripts
Welcome to Unboxing Logistics.
Speaker:Excited to be here.
Speaker:Excited to see our Unboxing Logistics community today.
Speaker:I didn't sleep last night.
Speaker:I was so excited.
Speaker:It was like Christmas Eve because we have on somebody today that you
Speaker:are all gonna be dying to hear from and is like, I'm kind of fangirling
Speaker:here because it's my dream job.
Speaker:So cool.
Speaker:We have Sucharita, and she works at Forrester and is an
Speaker:analyst over everything retail.
Speaker:So cool.
Speaker:So we're gonna be talking about retail, what we expect kind of for the upcoming
Speaker:peak season with the fall, the holiday, and just kind of what she's seeing.
Speaker:The world's crazy out there right now.
Speaker:Say hello and introduce yourself a little bit about your
Speaker:background to our community.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Thank you.
Speaker:I, I think that was the most generous introduction for
Speaker:somebody who nobody knows.
Speaker:So thank, thank you, Lori.
Speaker:I appreciate it.
Speaker:That, that's wonderful.
Speaker:I, I, I rarely get that enthusiasm in my own family, so happy to
Speaker:have it anywhere I can get it.
Speaker:Thank you.
Speaker:Yeah, it's great to be here.
Speaker:Fantastic.
Speaker:So I love data.
Speaker:I love everything that has to do with trends.
Speaker:And right now everything is crazy, we know, and so trends are hard to pin down.
Speaker:Okay.
Speaker:Let's talk retail.
Speaker:What is the general mood you're kind of seeing out there right now across
Speaker:brands, retailers, ecommerce what, you know, before we kind of dig into
Speaker:any specifics, what are you just kind of getting the, the mood from?
Speaker:There's a lot of uncertainty right now.
Speaker:And it is worse in some sectors than others.
Speaker:If you are in apparel or anything discretionary.
Speaker:I think that there is a particularly uncertain vibe and that is a combination
Speaker:of not knowing where the tariff situation may land as well as consumer
Speaker:confidence not being terribly high, which meets that a lot of discretionary
Speaker:items are more vulnerable than others.
Speaker:On the other hand, it does seem like a lot of essentials categories seem to be doing
Speaker:better, whether it is mass merchandise or the dollar channel, or warehouse clubs.
Speaker:So that suggests to me that a lot of the essential goods continue
Speaker:to still hold their own in spite of, of all of the concerns.
Speaker:But when you look at valuations and stock prices for retail companies,
Speaker:almost anybody who is discretionary has basically said that there's you
Speaker:know, they've either lowered their expectations or they're extremely
Speaker:cautious for the back part of the year.
Speaker:And I think that that is being reflected in the retail sectors valuations,
Speaker:which haven't always recovered.
Speaker:There've been, there's some players like Costco, Walmart that, that
Speaker:continue to, to do fine or actually exceeding market performance.
Speaker:But but I, but I think that there's a lot of uncertainty.
Speaker:And the strongest retailers don't show up at, at conferences in many cases.
Speaker:It's often the ones that are looking for answers and are the most challenged.
Speaker:So those are the ones that I often hear from.
Speaker:And there's, there's a lot of uncertainty.
Speaker:There's just not, there's not a sense of what what the outlook is and what
Speaker:will happen with inflation, what, what's gonna happen in the political
Speaker:landscape, what's gonna happen with shopper confidence and so on.
Speaker:So I've done a couple of different surveys recently, and this is just
Speaker:hitting kind of the, you know, getting a little bit of the pulse.
Speaker:And what I'm seeing is
Speaker:consumer you know, my, my highest concern that people have put in as their
Speaker:result is low consumer demand being a concern followed by then by tariffs and,
Speaker:and those kind of costs and whatnot.
Speaker:So what, what are your anticipations, what I'm hearing from you, discretionary
Speaker:that's where the bigger concern is.
Speaker:Obviously it's interesting that you say essentials are
Speaker:doing even better than usual.
Speaker:Anything surprising I guess when it comes to kind of the
Speaker:signals consumers are giving?
Speaker:Any industries maybe that are doing better or or holding on more.
Speaker:Any thoughts around kind of that consumer demand piece?
Speaker:So there has been a lot of cognitive dissonance in the economy
Speaker:for the last few years.
Speaker:And the reason that I say that is that consumer confidence has been quite low.
Speaker:And for the last year it's been as low as the, as it was during the pandemic.
Speaker:But on the other hand, what you have are still relatively high levels of spend.
Speaker:So consumer spend, even inflation adjusted is at its highest level ever.
Speaker:You have other macro signals, whether it is GDP growth or
Speaker:whether it's unemployment.
Speaker:Unemployment still quite low.
Speaker:You still have the GDP rates being quite high.
Speaker:You have other signals like interest rates.
Speaker:Well, I should say inflation is, is, is approaching that 2% level, which was
Speaker:always the fed's magic number, which was the number that would trigger rate cuts.
Speaker:So.
Speaker:You have lots of, of, you know, kind of conflicting issues where
Speaker:the consumer says that they're not happy, but yet they're employed.
Speaker:Their wages are higher than ever.
Speaker:But, and, and they're spending, but they say that they are unhappy and they're,
Speaker:they're nervous about the future.
Speaker:Where are people?
Speaker:So there's, I have, there's a whole fee, you know, kind of, there's actually quite
Speaker:a bit of data that says why that is.
Speaker:A lot of that is politically tied because when you look at who's unhappiest,
Speaker:it's basically whoever is not in the White House at that moment in time.
Speaker:So during the Biden administration everybody was unhappy.
Speaker:Well, the average numbers were the same, low, low rates of consumer
Speaker:confidence, but it was highly, you know, kind of deflated by Republicans.
Speaker:And now you see the opposite where in the Trump administration you have, again,
Speaker:low rates of consumer confidence, you know, kind of dragged down by Democrats.
Speaker:So, you know, kind of, so there's that, which is the political and
Speaker:the polarization of your, you know, kinda just of, of people that we've
Speaker:noticed over the last, probably decade, probably more than that, but.
Speaker:That's been driving whether or not you're happy and whether or
Speaker:not you're confident, I should say confident, not, not necessarily happy.
Speaker:But then your other question was like, which sectors are growing or not?
Speaker:ecommerce continues to grow.
Speaker:That's the non-store retailer sector.
Speaker:You have essential goods, grocery is doing okay but you have, you
Speaker:know, kind of in the early part of 2025, we actually saw automotive
Speaker:growing pretty strongly because people were frontloading their automotive
Speaker:purchases worried about tariffs.
Speaker:So they were, they were trying to get ahead of that for fear that low
Speaker:prices would be, would be higher.
Speaker:And the, the sector that I find has been most puzzling, which is where
Speaker:I think that there's this complete you know, kind of illustration of the
Speaker:cognitive dissonance is food away from home, which is the restaurant sector,
Speaker:which has been on fire pretty much since, you know, kind of, we started
Speaker:to go out again after, you know, kind of removing masks during the pandemic.
Speaker:And those numbers have been really strong.
Speaker:Inflation is actually highest in that sub-sector.
Speaker:And if there is a discretionary item in our budgets, you know, the most
Speaker:discretionary would be eating out.
Speaker:And yet that's going, that's going up and that's increasing.
Speaker:So, you know, kind of while we're cutting back on things that are discretionary
Speaker:like apparel you know, we're leaning into and continuing to spend on
Speaker:discretionary items like, you know, quick service restaurants or fine dining or
Speaker:whatever the dining situation may be.
Speaker:And, and that was the, the call out to me that I was like, you know, kind
Speaker:of this, these are total crocodile tears when people say that they're
Speaker:distressed about the economy.
Speaker:Because if you were that distrust about the economy, you are not
Speaker:gonna be eating out at Chipotle.
Speaker:So many cool truth bombs there.
Speaker:Love that insight about the fact that people say they're upset,
Speaker:but that's a little bit more just aligned with, we're upset with where
Speaker:politics are going, whoever it is.
Speaker:Their actions don't seem to be following up with what they're saying.
Speaker:So interesting about the discretionary.
Speaker:So some discretionary is cutting.
Speaker:As you said, apparel is falling.
Speaker:Is that in relation at all to, you know, the tariffs, de minimis
Speaker:all of those pieces with China?
Speaker:Is that related to the apparel piece or is that separate?
Speaker:Apparel, I think has been a really, complicated story.
Speaker:I think that there are a few different things that are happening in apparel.
Speaker:The most recent would be the Temu Shein phenomenon, and supposedly those are
Speaker:now billion dollar plus companies.
Speaker:And anytime you have an entrance that generates billions of dollars,
Speaker:it's gonna be taking share away from, from other players, and you're
Speaker:doing it by lowering price points and increasing the number of units sold.
Speaker:So so there's an argument to be made that there's, there may be some mall merchants,
Speaker:you know, perhaps the Old Navys, you know, that that could be adversely impacted
Speaker:by, by the Temu Shein phenomenon.
Speaker:On the other hand, there are off price retailers like TJX and Ross
Speaker:that are continuing to do okay, they're in that value sector.
Speaker:So maybe units are not off, you know, kind of off all that much and, and
Speaker:you know, kind of, they're part of the declining unit price, you know,
Speaker:kind of unit per transaction or, you know, kind of part of the the
Speaker:lowering of average average selling price story that may be happening.
Speaker:So, so I, I think that there's, there's definitely you know, kind
Speaker:of price deflation in apparel.
Speaker:And that's actually been pretty much a story since the U.S. lost apparel
Speaker:manufacturing, like in the eighties.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:I mean, we were, you know, North Carolina, where I live, was still
Speaker:manufacturing clothing and soft goods pretty much through the seventies and,
Speaker:you know, kind, kind of the eighties.
Speaker:And as, as China has grown and, you know, that was pretty much in the
Speaker:eighties and, and the nineties is when, when, when Chinese and far East
Speaker:manufacturing really started to explode.
Speaker:You started to see the declining price points in sectors like apparel.
Speaker:I mean, Old Navy really didn't even start until the nineties, right?
Speaker:The early to mid nineties.
Speaker:And, and those were disruptive changes to the apparel landscape.
Speaker:It, they marked the, basically the death of department stores.
Speaker:I mean, department stores were still growing until, pretty much until
Speaker:9/11 and ever since then, it's been a steady, slow slide down for them.
Speaker:And it's, so I think that you have these, these mega macro issues that are
Speaker:happening with respect to where these products are getting manufactured.
Speaker:And then you have these little players here and there that are coming in
Speaker:and you know, becoming big players and disrupting the incumbents.
Speaker:But on the other hand, you, you have other sectors that are very
Speaker:high price point and are, you know, like an Alo or Lululemon that.
Speaker:You know, kind of our, our capturing sales in the premium space.
Speaker:They're not actually huge business.
Speaker:I mean, they're big, but they're not, you know, I mean, these are
Speaker:not $20 billion businesses even.
Speaker:So but you know, kind of, I think that they, they've occupied a
Speaker:niche with affluent consumers and.
Speaker:So, anyway, it's a very long winded explanation of what I think is
Speaker:happening in apparel and to tie it back yeah to right now, I, I think
Speaker:what we're seeing is that it is it is challenged from a cost standpoint.
Speaker:It's challenged from a consumer demand standpoint, and it's challenged
Speaker:from a competition standpoint.
Speaker:So the ability of these apparel manufacturers to be able to raise prices
Speaker:is almost, you know, kind of, there, there's no ability for them to raise
Speaker:their prices in most cases because they're commodities that are easily replaceable.
Speaker:Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker:Are there other industries you're seeing outside of apparel where maybe
Speaker:discretionary spending is falling?
Speaker:Big box ish type category.
Speaker:Obviously footwear, part and parcel with with apparel, although there are
Speaker:success stories, even within footwear.
Speaker:You look at some of the running shoe brands that are not Nike and they're
Speaker:doing quite well, whether it's On or Hoka or, it, you know, can there even
Speaker:smaller emerging brands that, that are, that are out there, that are doing okay.
Speaker:But even outside of that sporting goods.
Speaker:Toys is very challenged, will continue to be challenged.
Speaker:They're heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing.
Speaker:And that's a sector that has very, very little innovation and
Speaker:has had very little innovation.
Speaker:So that is a sector that I think is gonna be incredibly challenged
Speaker:over the next five to 10 years.
Speaker:And you know, so, so I think anything that that is, is in, I. Office supply.
Speaker:You know, I mean, these are all things that, that I, that, that
Speaker:we see much, much more challenge.
Speaker:Consumer electronics isn't really doing phenomenally well.
Speaker:I mean, they too have been challenged by tariff issues because a lot of
Speaker:those goods are manufactured in, in China and you don't have, we're
Speaker:not in a replacement cycle for any.
Speaker:It, you know, there's no, not been any blockbuster new CE release either.
Speaker:So all of these things I, I think have led to when you look at the sales of
Speaker:Best Buy or you, you know, kind of the mall merchants or you know, any sporting
Speaker:goods retailers if they are doing well, and many of them aren't necessarily, you
Speaker:know, kind of reporting out of this world metrics, they have very, very cautious
Speaker:outlooks for the rest of the year.
Speaker:Okay, so let's talk about the rest of the year then, as we go into the holiday
Speaker:season, into the peak season for a lot of our ecommerce retailers, everybody,
Speaker:what do you, obviously we're in a season of uncertainty, so you know, not
Speaker:holding you do what's gonna happen here?
Speaker:But what would you anticipate that, you know, people who are
Speaker:listening, they're ecommerce sellers, they're retailers, they are, you
Speaker:know, wondering, you know, advice.
Speaker:What, what do you see happening?
Speaker:What, what do you anticipate happening?
Speaker:And, and I guess, what kind of advice do you have for maybe protecting
Speaker:margins or, or working through some of these macroeconomic challenges?
Speaker:I don't know that there are any easy answers to that because we don't know.
Speaker:We'd be rich, Sucharita, if we knew it all.
Speaker:Exactly.
Speaker:Exactly.
Speaker:I mean, I don't know that we, we really know what the, what the future holds.
Speaker:I think that a lot of people don't really understand what's happening with tariffs.
Speaker:And if, you know, if I can share my opinion, it doesn't seem to me that
Speaker:tariffs are necessarily the end.
Speaker:They're, they're sort of a means to the end, which are tied to a whole slew
Speaker:of other macroeconomic issues like the U.S. being in in debt and you know,
Speaker:kind of essentially having to spend a significant part of our budget every
Speaker:year, the, the U.S. federal budget on things like interest payments on
Speaker:that debt or military payments to protect other regions in the world.
Speaker:And I think that the goal is to reduce some of those payments ultimately,
Speaker:you know, it's not, and tariffs you know, could be a means to that end,
Speaker:but it's more that tariffs, I think, are a negotiating tactic to just
Speaker:straight up get payments, you know?
Speaker:So I, I don't know that, that these are, this is gonna necessarily
Speaker:be the topic that we're gonna be talking about a year from now.
Speaker:Plus you, you know, kind of like.
Speaker:I think it's, it's fairly well known even amongst White House economists that,
Speaker:you know, kind of tariffs in, in, you know, kind of the, the form as they're
Speaker:being portrayed by the media would almost certainly lead to a recession.
Speaker:And I don't know that anybody wants to head into a recession particularly as
Speaker:we're going into an election year too.
Speaker:So, so I, I, I don't.
Speaker:So, so I think that there's, so, anyway, to answer, to go back to your
Speaker:question of what's gonna happen, I don't know, and I don't know that anyone
Speaker:knows how to respond in this scenario where there is so much uncertainty.
Speaker:Because there are two scenarios, right?
Speaker:It's like, you know, kind of, we could continue to have, you know, kind of
Speaker:these threats of tariffs, and they could go up and down, and who knows
Speaker:where it's ultimately gonna shake out.
Speaker:And if, if you do believe that tariffs are the end game, then where
Speaker:you are probably best positioned to act now is to front load supply.
Speaker:You know, kind of get as much inventory, perhaps as unfinished
Speaker:goods to wherever you can so that as needed, you can start manufacturing.
Speaker:On the other hand, if you don't believe that tariffs are long-term and they
Speaker:are just political theater that would be a tremendous waste of working
Speaker:capital to be front-loading anything.
Speaker:So, and then you potentially risk wasting resources and hurting
Speaker:your cash flow, which is usually the fastest route to bankruptcy.
Speaker:So I, I, I think that there's a lot of wait and see.
Speaker:There's a lot of, how late can we act?
Speaker:Can we shrink our, do we need to shrink our business and shrink expectations for
Speaker:our business while still staying alive?
Speaker:And I think that's really what companies are doing is, is, you
Speaker:know, kind of, they're not investing.
Speaker:They're not hiring, they are trying to be as cautious and issue cautious
Speaker:earnings announcements, wherever possible.
Speaker:So I think that that's, that's what they're doing is just hunkering down
Speaker:and, and seeing how they can just stay alive and maintain cash flow.
Speaker:That's, you know, I think that's what you, that's the best you, you can do.
Speaker:Do you feel like this is gonna be kind of a race to the
Speaker:bottom discount sort of season?
Speaker:Or do you think I, I'm seeing different articles all the time on how different
Speaker:retailers are, you know, just today I read an article, Walmart says that
Speaker:they're gonna raise prices and you know, but then we'll see some other
Speaker:retailers saying they're not going to, or, you know, we're keeping things.
Speaker:What, what do you think is gonna happen, I guess, between that fight between, you
Speaker:know, potentially low consumer demand and raising prices or rising costs.
Speaker:So what I guess do you anticipate, and what do you feel like
Speaker:is a smart move for people?
Speaker:I suspect we'll see a bit of a redux that we saw during the pandemic,
Speaker:which is there will be price increases on inelastic goods, which
Speaker:tend to be in essential categories.
Speaker:And now the risk with that is that that will almost definitely trigger an economic
Speaker:downturn because you know, kind of, that is the most visible way that inflation
Speaker:is reflected in the, in the economy.
Speaker:And it's, it's, you know, it's like all the angst that people have about
Speaker:egg prices or milk prices or, you know, kind of these basic commodities.
Speaker:So, but that is yet where I, I, I would imagine, you know, kind
Speaker:of there's the easiest ability to, to raise, to raise prices.
Speaker:Whether or not Wal, Walmart and the grocers actually do,
Speaker:I think remains to be seen.
Speaker:I mean, one of the good things about the U.S. economy and, and U.S. retail is
Speaker:it's so hyper competitive that it's very, it's quite difficult to raise prices.
Speaker:So I, I don't know that, that, that will necessarily shake out.
Speaker:I mean, the only time in recent years that we've seen holiday not be a discount
Speaker:you know, kind of discount season is the year that the Suez Canal was backed up.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:You know, so, and those were supply chain related issues where you had
Speaker:significant issues with factories or you had significant, significant issues
Speaker:with, with trade routes and that, that led to, you know, kind of less
Speaker:inventory at critical times which meant that you just couldn't discount because
Speaker:you didn't have things to discount.
Speaker:But I, I don't, I don't anticipate, you know, I mean, retail is hyper competitive
Speaker:and if you have products, you need to get rid of those and you're gonna, if
Speaker:you have inventory, you need to sell it and you're gonna sell it you know,
Speaker:whatever price it, it gets sold at.
Speaker:And there's no, there's no reason to hold onto that inventory and hoard it.
Speaker:So, you know, kind of, unless there's like a supply shock, I can't, I can't, I
Speaker:can't envision a scenario where it's not gonna be another heavy discounting season.
Speaker:Okay, so I'm kind of reading between the lines a little bit here, but as
Speaker:we look towards this upcoming holiday season, do you anticipate, what I'm
Speaker:hearing is that people are saying that they're cautious, but their actions
Speaker:aren't necessarily proving that.
Speaker:Do you feel like, you know, when we wrap things up that we'll end up
Speaker:seeing probably a similar amount of shopping that took place as we have
Speaker:in the last few years, or do you still think that there's a potential that
Speaker:there will be, you know, dips this year in the amount of goods sold?
Speaker:The only scenario where there will be dips is if prices go up substantially.
Speaker:So right now inflation is just north of 2%.
Speaker:That's the fed's magic number.
Speaker:That's where they want it to hold steady.
Speaker:And so if, if anything were to change that, so if food apparel, you know,
Speaker:if any sub-sector in consumer spend were to increase its prices due to
Speaker:supply chain issues or due to tariffs or some other factor then, you know,
Speaker:kind of, I, I do think that you'd see a potential downturn, but it
Speaker:doesn't, nothing seems to suggest that prices are going to go up suddenly.
Speaker:You know, kind of, there's, people say that that's what they're
Speaker:doing, but we haven't actually seen it in the CPI data yet.
Speaker:And retail numbers are still trending quite positive.
Speaker:So when you look at the censuses spend numbers.
Speaker:They're still the highest levels ever.
Speaker:I don't see that falling off a cliff between now and the holiday season.
Speaker:So and there would have to be other major macro changes.
Speaker:Like you would have to see employment spike or wages go
Speaker:down for, for significant changes.
Speaker:But, but that hasn't happened either.
Speaker:So as long as we stay kind of status quo as we are now, we can probably
Speaker:anticipate nothing crazy going on.
Speaker:Okay.
Speaker:That's great.
Speaker:And I think that a large part of the reason, I mean, the tariff situation has.
Speaker:It's been more limited in which categories it's actually touching.
Speaker:It's there's a lot of announcements and then a lot of retractions and it,
Speaker:you know, kind of companies saying that they have things in bonded warehouses,
Speaker:but you know, again, it's not yet flowing through to shopper prices
Speaker:that are visible in the aggregate when you look at CPI numbers yet.
Speaker:So we shall see.
Speaker:I mean, it's June and you know, I mean, there's still months to
Speaker:go for, for some of that to make its way through the economy.
Speaker:Do you recommend frontloading?
Speaker:Is that something you would recommend right now or in the 90 days?
Speaker:I, I see like the pros and cons, like sometimes it seems good,
Speaker:but then also the shipping lanes through the oceans are really high.
Speaker:Those prices are going way up because so many people are frontloading.
Speaker:So for me, I, I, yeah, again, this is just.
Speaker:The, the opinion of Sucharita.
Speaker:Not us though.
Speaker:What do you think?
Speaker:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker:I mean, I don't, I I think that there are so many factors that go
Speaker:into making those decisions, right?
Speaker:What is the, what's, what's ultimately the fully loaded cost once you, once
Speaker:you incorporate transportation or any bonded warehouse cost to that,
Speaker:you may need to incorporate there or other you know, kind of storage
Speaker:fees that you may have to incur.
Speaker:I mean, what I've, what I've heard from some retail, some manufacturers,
Speaker:actually suppliers it depends on your margins and your categories.
Speaker:I mean, even with really high tariffs.
Speaker:It is not worth their, it is not worth it to even switch manufacturing because
Speaker:their margins were so substantial.
Speaker:And they wouldn't, you know, kind of be able to get a competitive price even
Speaker:if they switched manufacturing to other, other supposedly low cost regions.
Speaker:So.
Speaker:You know, I mean, it just, it really really depends on the, the category.
Speaker:It depends on your anticipated demand, and perhaps the biggest
Speaker:issue is do you have cash?
Speaker:You know, I mean, if you, if you don't have any money and you don't have any
Speaker:savings, you know, does it make sense to put yourself in a credit card debt?
Speaker:No.
Speaker:You know, I mean, so I think it just really depends on so many scenarios.
Speaker:If you can afford it you know, perhaps.
Speaker:It probably, if you can afford it and it's a commodity where, you know what
Speaker:the demand is gonna be for your item.
Speaker:Sure.
Speaker:But it, you know, I mean, if it's fashion I don't know that front loading
Speaker:anything in fashion makes that much sense because you could be stuck with a whole
Speaker:bunch of inventory that doesn't sell.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Ends up in the landfill.
Speaker:Honestly.
Speaker:Or driving you bankrupt, you know?
Speaker:I mean, I, I, I mean, the lack of cash flow is the number one reason
Speaker:that companies go out of business.
Speaker:So you, you know, you have to manage.
Speaker:I love that.
Speaker:I, I'm just gonna stop and say that businesses listening, the
Speaker:lack of cash flow is the number one reason you go out of business.
Speaker:So think about the cash flow.
Speaker:Sorry to interrupt.
Speaker:Go ahead.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:I mean, so that's yeah.
Speaker:Yeah, that's massive.
Speaker:I mean, that's huge.
Speaker:And sometimes people do.
Speaker:I know I talk to retailers all the time, you know, and sometimes,
Speaker:well, it's okay, maybe I'll just get into debt on this and do.
Speaker:So cashflow issue, looking at an individual.
Speaker:Are there any other sleeper trends or something that you feel like
Speaker:retailers should have on their radar?
Speaker:As we're going into the back half of this year?
Speaker:You've covered a ton, but.
Speaker:As far as carriers and shipping and ecom, not, not necessarily.
Speaker:I think that there there are larger macro issues that, that
Speaker:are in the landscape and we're in the middle of of an AI revolution.
Speaker:You know, kind of, you, you know, kind of you're cautious
Speaker:about your financial situation.
Speaker:You're cautious about your, your healthcare situation.
Speaker:Always ask questions.
Speaker:The same thing.
Speaker:Needs to be the same approach with, with any, you, you know, kind of anything
Speaker:in, in your, your life or your job or your personal information with respect
Speaker:to big technology companies, I, I don't think that we can assume you know,
Speaker:kind of that any big tech company is looking out for our best interests.
Speaker:Why devices, we're looking at anything with new technology, new,
Speaker:especially things that are super hyped, it's always good to make
Speaker:sure that you're being cautious.
Speaker:I had to say for the first time ever, and I know we're running late,
Speaker:so this was fun, but for the first time ever I was doing kind of a deep
Speaker:dirt deep research on something.
Speaker:And I came up with ChatGPT and I was working through something and
Speaker:it had come up with a stat, which is always, you know, you're suspicious.
Speaker:So I was like you know, what is this?
Speaker:This seems like interesting.
Speaker:I need a citation and, you know, can you get me to the source and what's my.
Speaker:It came back and it was the first time I experienced this.
Speaker:This actually came from internal documents, from company blank,
Speaker:and it says, so I don't have a source to share with you.
Speaker:I was like, did it really?
Speaker:You know what I mean?
Speaker:Somebody must have uploaded something and it shared that info with me.
Speaker:So I, I think it is wise, we don't know for sure if we're just sending stuff
Speaker:out there of, of what may be shared.
Speaker:So again, I, I wish I could have you for like three hours because you're so fun.
Speaker:Just to close up though, if, if you could leave anyone with a piece of advice
Speaker:as we're hitting the last six months, uncertainty is in the air what, what
Speaker:piece of advice would you leave them with?
Speaker:So two things.
Speaker:One is you can control what you can control businesswise.
Speaker:And there are some things that you, I mean, there are more ecommerce
Speaker:sales being transacted on things like mobile devices and make sure
Speaker:your site's mobile optimized.
Speaker:There is a large amount of return fraud that seems to be growing so leverage
Speaker:data and AI and machine learning to, to, you know, kind of what we're,
Speaker:what it seems to be a trend toward is more of more conservative returns
Speaker:policies, more conservative shipping policies, but with exceptions where you
Speaker:may give certain high value shoppers or people who may be part of your
Speaker:loyalty program more generous feature sets than, than maybe what you promote
Speaker:to the general, the general public.
Speaker:So I think that those are some of the business things people can control.
Speaker:From a, a larger life standpoint.
Speaker:If you are in the United States, the single biggest piece of advice that I can
Speaker:give is to vote in your primary elections.
Speaker:The delta between the percent of people who vote in primaries and the
Speaker:percent of people that vote in general elections is like 30 to 50%, and
Speaker:elections, particularly for Congress, are determined in the primaries.
Speaker:Participation in primaries is super low.
Speaker:And my advice is to educate yourself.
Speaker:The lack of independent voters in primaries.
Speaker:The lack of willingness of independent voters to vote in primaries is
Speaker:part of the reason we are in the polarized environment that we are in.
Speaker:So, and part of the, the, the mess that we see ourselves in with,
Speaker:you know, kind of big tech getting away with, with everything.
Speaker:So if we, if you think that any of this needs to change I would
Speaker:suggest doing some homework and voting in those primaries.
Speaker:Yeah, no, I love that.
Speaker:And I just, I've had multiple people on who work closely with Congress, and
Speaker:always a recommendation is let your voice be heard, reach out to people as well.
Speaker:Like if you may be a small business, but your Congress person does actually care
Speaker:and read those things and say, oh, my small business people are saying this.
Speaker:And so sometimes we do just sit back and be like, well, there's nothing I
Speaker:can do and just life's horrible, and no.
Speaker:Get out there, vote.
Speaker:Write your Congress people.
Speaker:Do whatever you can to try to help yourself and protect yourself.
Speaker:Love the advice of controlling what you can control.
Speaker:Huge truth bomb there when it comes to your business, there are little
Speaker:things that when the economy is woo beautiful and bright, that we
Speaker:let kind of fall by the wayside.
Speaker:Take a look at those.
Speaker:Great advice.
Speaker:Thank you again so much for being here.
Speaker:If anyone wants to connect with you or follow you, where would they do that?
Speaker:If anyone wants to reach out, I mean, I, you know, kind of at this point, I'm fine.
Speaker:You know, it's first initial, last name at Forrester.
Speaker:If anyone has questions or I. You know, kind of wants to, wants to connect.
Speaker:Oh, I love that.
Speaker:And thank you again for all your insights as we're trying to
Speaker:figure out this crazy season, and it's been wonderful having you.
Speaker:Yeah, thank you, Lori.
Speaker:It's been great to be here.
Speaker:Great.
Speaker:We'll see you all next time.
