Spring Cleaning – Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning remain one of the NHL’s model organizations, but another first-round playoff exit raises serious questions about whether their championship window is beginning to close. After finishing second in the Atlantic Division, Tampa Bay lost a tightly contested seven-game series to the Montreal Canadiens, marking a fourth consecutive opening-round elimination. Neil Smith and Vic Morren examine the Lightning’s regular-season excellence, postseason scoring problems, major injury challenges, and the difficult decisions awaiting General Manager Julien BriseBois.
IN THIS EPISODE:
[00:00:00] The Lightning finish second in the Atlantic Division before losing to Montreal in seven games during the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It becomes Tampa Bay’s fourth straight first-round defeat since reaching the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.
[00:00:30] Despite the playoff disappointment, Neil emphasizes the extraordinary consistency of the organization. Since winning their second consecutive Stanley Cup in 2021, the Lightning have averaged more than 102 standings points per season.
[00:01:00] Jon Cooper continues to get strong results regardless of injuries or roster limitations. Even when key players are unavailable, Cooper consistently finds combinations that allow Tampa Bay to remain competitive.
[00:01:30] Nikita Kucherov delivers another elite regular season, recording his fourth consecutive 100-point campaign and the sixth of his career. His production keeps Tampa Bay among the NHL’s most dangerous offensive teams.
[00:01:50] Jake Guentzel reaches the 30-goal mark for the sixth time in his career while setting a personal best with 88 points. Brandon Hagel also produces a career season with 36 goals and a plus-34 rating.
[00:02:10] Defenseman Darren Raddysh provides one of the season’s biggest surprises, finishing with 22 goals, 48 assists, and 70 points while posting a plus-21 rating. His breakout season positions him for a significant contract as an unrestricted free agent.
[00:02:30] Brayden Point experiences a major decline in goal production. After previously scoring 51, 46, and 42 goals, he finishes with only 18 while missing 19 games due to injury.
[00:02:50] Injuries become a defining part of Tampa Bay’s season, with the club losing 339 man-games. Victor Hedman appears in only 33 games because of injuries and a leave of absence to focus on his mental health.
[00:03:10] Ryan McDonagh, Emil Lilleberg, and Erik Cernak also miss significant time, often leaving the Lightning without multiple regular defensemen simultaneously.
[00:03:30] Neil believes Cooper deserves serious consideration for his first Jack Adams Award. He compares Cooper’s candidacy with Dan Muse in Pittsburgh and Lindy Ruff in Buffalo.
[00:04:00] While the regular-season product remains excellent, the Lightning’s postseason results reveal a troubling trend. Tampa Bay has now failed to advance beyond the first round in four consecutive seasons.
[00:04:25] Tampa Bay scores only 15 goals during its seven-game series against Montreal. Because nearly every game remains within one goal, a single additional offensive play could have changed the outcome.
[00:04:45] Brandon Hagel leads the Lightning with six playoff goals, but the rest of the offense struggles. Jake Guentzel and Dominic James finish with two goals each, while Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov score only once apiece.
[00:05:05] Kucherov’s postseason production becomes a major concern. Despite his regular-season brilliance, he has scored only two goals across his last 22 playoff games over four seasons.
[00:05:30] Corey Perry and Nick Paul also fail to provide the secondary scoring Tampa Bay needs. Neil believes the Lightning occasionally become too focused on making the perfect play instead of creating simpler scoring opportunities.
[00:05:50] Montreal goaltender Jakub Dobeš delivers an outstanding performance in Game 7, helping the Canadiens survive despite Tampa Bay controlling much of the play.
[00:06:15] Andrei Vasilevskiy forces the deciding game with a 1-0 shutout in Game 6, although he faces only nine shots. In Game 7, Alex Newhook scores the series-winning goal on a puck that caroms off Vasilevskiy after being played from behind the net.
[00:06:45] Attention shifts to Julien BriseBois and the offseason ahead. Tampa Bay owns six selections in the 2026 NHL Draft but does not have a first-round pick after trading it to Seattle in the Oliver Bjorkstrand deal.
[00:07:10] The Lightning also lack a fourth-round selection and enter the offseason slightly above the projected salary cap before the July 1 reset.
[00:07:30] Unrestricted free agents include Oliver Bjorkstrand, Corey Perry, Mitchell Chaffee, Scott Sabourin, Darren Raddysh, and Declan Carlile. The Lightning have no restricted free agents requiring new contracts.
[00:07:50] Several members of the core remain signed through the 2029-30 season, including Guentzel, Point, Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, Cernak, and J.J. Moser.
[00:08:10] Nikita Kucherov becomes eligible for unrestricted free agency after the following season. With Kucherov, Point, and Vasilevskiy currently carrying team-high salaries of $9.5 million, BriseBois may soon need to open the vault to retain his superstar.
[00:08:35] The Lightning are also becoming one of the NHL’s older teams. Neil believes their win-now window remains open, but the organization must acknowledge that its championship core cannot remain at the top forever.
[00:09:00] Tampa Bay’s limited draft capital and consistently low draft position have weakened the prospect pipeline. That makes it difficult to replace aging veterans with inexpensive young players.
[00:09:30] Neil concludes that free agency may be Tampa Bay’s most realistic path for supplementing the roster in the immediate future. Until the Lightning rebuild their collection of draft picks and prospects, BriseBois must continue using creative trades and veteran signings to keep the team among the NHL’s contenders.
