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Time to 1.5 | 1 | 1.5 to Stay Alive
Episode 1 • 1st February 2022 • Threshold • Auricle Productions
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Amy Martin:

Think about something you love, a person or

Amy Martin:

a place, your town, your country, your farm, your

Amy Martin:

neighborhood. Zoom in on one specific face.

Ali:

Hey, it's me.

Audrey:

If you're happy and you know it, clap your hands.

Amy Martin:

Your friend, your sister, your cat, your kid, your

Amy Martin:

mom. Think about how you feel when you're in that place you

Amy Martin:

love. Think about what it's like to look into the eyes of that

Amy Martin:

special person and see them looking back at you.

Addie:

Hi, Mommy.

Amy Martin:

And now imagine that someone comes to you out of the

Amy Martin:

blue with a message. "There's danger ahead," they say.

Amy Martin:

"Everyone and everything you love is at risk." Some of the

Amy Martin:

pain ahead can't be avoided, but if you act quickly and

Amy Martin:

decisively enough, you can prevent the worst. You can make

Amy Martin:

the coming danger less dangerous. You can make it

Amy Martin:

shorter and less frightening. You can help everyone you love

Amy Martin:

suffer less, but you have to act now. This is not a metaphor.

Amy Martin:

This is our reality. The threat is a global climate system

Amy Martin:

thrown into chaos. Some of that danger is already upon us. But

Amy Martin:

it could get much worse, or eventually, if we work hard

Amy Martin:

enough, better. And all of us who happen to be alive right now

Amy Martin:

are choosing between those two options.

Alok Sharma:

So much rests on the decisions that we

Alok Sharma:

collectively take today.

Amy Martin:

After decades of scientific study and political

Amy Martin:

wrangling, the world has agreed- at least on paper- that 1.5

Amy Martin:

degrees of heating must be the upper limit of our impact on the

Amy Martin:

climate system. One and a half degrees Celsius of global

Amy Martin:

heating over pre-industrial temperatures, and no more 1.5

Tina Stege:

1.5 is non negotiable. The safety of my

Tina Stege:

children and yours hangs in the balance.

Amy Martin:

We've already warmed the planet around 1.2 degrees

Amy Martin:

Celsius on average, and more warming is baked in so we are

Amy Martin:

living through the last remaining years before we hit

Amy Martin:

the line that we have decided not to cross.

Keriako Tobiko:

1.5 is not a statistic. It is a matter of

Keriako Tobiko:

life and death.

Amy Martin:

And the trick here is that there's a time lag, a

Amy Martin:

gap between cause and effect. The climate is a huge, unwieldy

Amy Martin:

ship. It can't be turned at the last minute. We can't wait to

Amy Martin:

hit one and a half degrees before we act. The

Amy Martin:

responsibility for preventing warming beyond that rests with

Amy Martin:

us right now.

Twila Moon:

What we do is the determinant.

Amy Martin:

We're on track to reach 1.5 degrees and keep right

Amy Martin:

on going to 2.4 degrees of heating or more. If we want to

Amy Martin:

change that story and limit warming to 1.5 we don't have

Amy Martin:

much time left. How much time? Well, no one can say for sure,

Amy Martin:

but based on current emissions trajectories we have until

Amy Martin:

roughly 2029. We're releasing this in early 2022 so let's call

Amy Martin:

that seven-ish years, maybe a little more, maybe a little

Amy Martin:

less, but approximately the time between kindergarten and middle

Amy Martin:

school, slightly longer than one U.S. Senate term the average

Amy Martin:

lifespan of a guinea pig.

Christiana Figueres:

We now have one last chance to truly change

Christiana Figueres:

our course. This is the decisive decade in the history of

Christiana Figueres:

humankind that may sound like an exaggeration, but it's not.

Amy Martin:

This all sounds very scary, I know, and it is. Our

Amy Martin:

situation is dire, but think about it this way, we don't

Amy Martin:

always get advance warning for human suffering, let alone

Amy Martin:

instructions on how to reduce it. With climate, we do. We can

Amy Martin:

see the danger coming toward us, and we have the power to lessen

Amy Martin:

the pain for everything and everyone we love, including

Amy Martin:

ourselves. Will we choose to do that? And do it fast enough?

Amy Martin:

Welcome to Threshold. I'm Amy Martin, and this is season four:

Amy Martin:

Time to 1.5.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: At 1.2 we're starting to feel the pain. At

Amy Martin:

1.5 there will be more pain, and beyond two, I would strongly

Amy Martin:

advise us not to go.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Adelle Thomas: We are at a critical point. We need to get

Amy Martin:

emissions to zero now, otherwise, things are going to

Amy Martin:

be much worse.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: Everybody's doing a little bit, little bit

Amy Martin:

doesn't count. Are they doing enough to stay below 1.5.

Claire:

So we're in uncharted territory, and we have to

Claire:

embrace it.

Alok Sharma:

Dear delegates, dear friends. Good afternoon.

Amy Martin:

I'm at the global climate talks in Glasgow,

Amy Martin:

Scotland in November 2021 the Threshold team came to this UN

Amy Martin:

conference known as COP26 to learn about how the world is

Amy Martin:

working together, sort of to put the brakes on the climate

Amy Martin:

crisis. Representatives from almost every country in the

Amy Martin:

world are in a cavernous room sitting behind their microphones

Amy Martin:

in long rows. U.S. Climate envoy John Kerry is just a few seats

Amy Martin:

away from me, I can see his leg bouncing in agitation. As you

Amy Martin:

can imagine, it's hard to get everyone in this room to agree

Amy Martin:

on anything, but one concept that almost everyone seems to be

Amy Martin:

on board with is keeping 1.5 alive. Here's the representative

Amy Martin:

from Costa Rica:

Costa Rica:

For Costa Rica, all decisions and all the work here

Costa Rica:

in Glasgow should be framed to keep this 1.5 alive.

Amy Martin:

And from the Marshall Islands:

Marshall Islands:

To get us on the trajectory to 1.5 that is

Marshall Islands:

the lifeline for my country, and I argue it's the lifeline for

Marshall Islands:

everyone in every country.

Amy Martin:

And from the United States:

United States:

We have to reduce emissions by 45% in the next 10

United States:

years in order to keep 1.5 degrees alive.

Amy Martin:

And from Grenada:

Grenada:

The world is watching and expects us to do the right

Grenada:

thing, and that is to close this COP with a truly ambitious

Grenada:

outcome which keeps 1.5 alive. We cannot let them down. This is

Grenada:

our last real chance.

Amy Martin:

So what is this number 1.5 all about? What does

Amy Martin:

everyone mean when they say we have to keep 1.5 alive? Well,

Amy Martin:

that story begins with a simple problem, the need for a goal.

Amy Martin:

Back in the early 1990s when countries first came together to

Amy Martin:

start working on climate they pledged to keep greenhouse gas

Amy Martin:

emissions, quote, "at a level that would prevent dangerous

Amy Martin:

anthropogenic interference with the climate system."

Amy Martin:

Anthropogenic means human-caused so that was the best we could

Amy Martin:

come up with at the time, we were going to limit human-caused

Amy Martin:

interference to a non-dangerous level. But what was that level?

Amy Martin:

How much interference with the climate was too much? How could

Amy Martin:

that be quantified so the whole world had something to work

Amy Martin:

toward and work to avoid. The process of answering those

Amy Martin:

questions was both scientific and political, and I mean

Amy Martin:

political in the broadest sense of the word, the complicated

Amy Martin:

process of groups of humans trying to make decisions

Amy Martin:

together. We're going to trace both threads of the 1.5 origin

Amy Martin:

story in this episode, starting with the question of how a

Amy Martin:

number that sounds so small could matter so much

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: we cannot negotiate with nature, we cannot

Amy Martin:

negotiate with the planet.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström will be our guide through the

Amy Martin:

scientific side of the 1.5 story. He's a professor of Earth

Amy Martin:

Systems Science at the University of Potsdam in

Amy Martin:

Germany. He's originally from Sweden, and he consults with

Amy Martin:

business and government leaders around the world on climate and

Amy Martin:

UN says we've already heated up the planet close to 1.2 degrees

Amy Martin:

Celsius. That's average global temperatures. Some places like

Amy Martin:

the Arctic and many parts of Africa are much hotter already.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: So 1.2 is a lot that we've done already now, and

Amy Martin:

going to 1.5 would be very dramatic.

Amy Martin:

Johan knows it can be hard for people to get why

Amy Martin:

they should care about something that sounds as small as one and

Amy Martin:

a half degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, but he says

Amy Martin:

from a climate perspective, it does really matter and to

Amy Martin:

understand why, he says it helps to know that the Earth has three

Amy Martin:

basic steady states, three versions of climate equilibrium.

Amy Martin:

The first is called Snowball Earth, which is like an ice age

Amy Martin:

on steroids, where the whole planet is completely frozen. The

Amy Martin:

second is called Hothouse Earth, with a lot of carbon dioxide in

Amy Martin:

the air, no ice left anywhere, extremely high seas and large

Amy Martin:

portions of the planet most likely uninhabitable for humans.

Amy Martin:

So those are the two extremes.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: And then in the middle you have this, this

Amy Martin:

oscillation with a planet that has periods of ice age and

Amy Martin:

shorter interglacials.

Amy Martin:

This middle ground is where we are now, fluctuating

Amy Martin:

between ice ages and slightly warmer periods called

Amy Martin:

interglacials.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: And it is this interglacial state that we have

Amy Martin:

more and more evidence is the only state that can support the

Amy Martin:

modern world as we know it.

Amy Martin:

Our current interglacial period is called

Amy Martin:

the Holocene. It started about 12,000 years ago.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: We have been around on Earth as humans, as

Amy Martin:

fully fledged modern humans, perhaps some 200,000 years. Now,

Amy Martin:

we've been largely hunters and gatherers during almost all that

Amy Martin:

time.

Amy Martin:

So picture your distant ancestors running around

Amy Martin:

the planet for around 200,000 years. They have all of the

Amy Martin:

intellectual firepower that we have now. And theoretically,

Amy Martin:

they could have invented writing or started building pyramids at

Amy Martin:

any point, but they didn't.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: Until we leave the last ice age and enter the

Amy Martin:

last 12,000 years into glacial the Holocene, and that's where

Amy Martin:

we have the takeoff point for civilizations as we know it.

Amy Martin:

And here's where we can start to see how seemingly

Amy Martin:

small temperature changes can have a big impact on humanity.

Amy Martin:

For most of the Holocene, the global mean temperature was

Amy Martin:

around 14 degrees Celsius, or 57-ish degrees Fahrenheit.

Amy Martin:

Scientists know this through studying chemical signatures

Amy Martin:

left in ancient sediments, ice cores and fossils. So the

Amy Martin:

Holocene has been a remarkably stable period in terms of

Amy Martin:

climate, and people put that stability to good use.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: When we enter the Holocene, that's when we

Amy Martin:

domesticate animals and plants and start developing agriculture

Amy Martin:

and sedentary communities that has been, we know, the very

Amy Martin:

prerequisite for for civilizational development and

Amy Martin:

the modern world as we know it.

Amy Martin:

And now for the punchline here. Guess how much

Amy Martin:

average global temperatures changed during this period.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: The Holocene, the only state that we've been

Amy Martin:

able to develop civilizations in has a maximum range for the

Amy Martin:

global mean temperature of plus minus one degrees Celsius. So

Amy Martin:

the planet never exceeds plus one.

Amy Martin:

But now it has because of us, and we can

Amy Martin:

already see a disrupted climate beginning to disrupt human

Amy Martin:

societies. This is a key concept that I hadn't really thought

Amy Martin:

about that much before I started reporting on climate the

Amy Martin:

importance of stability for human development on the

Amy Martin:

individual level, it's easy to see. A kid growing up in a

Amy Martin:

relatively peaceful home has a better chance of doing well in

Amy Martin:

school than a kid who's forced to constantly deal with chaos

Amy Martin:

and upheaval. Stability means kids can spend more of their

Amy Martin:

internal resources on their own growth, instead of warding off

Amy Martin:

danger or worrying about the next unwelcome surprise. But the

Amy Martin:

same could be true for us at the civilization level. Maybe it's

Amy Martin:

only when we have some predictability around our basic

Amy Martin:

resources, food, water, shelter, that we can start to focus on

Amy Martin:

things other than survival. Johan says that's what seems to

Amy Martin:

have happened around 10,000 years ago.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: We domesticated animals and plants largely

Amy Martin:

simultaneously on different continents. So something very

Amy Martin:

special happened with Planet Earth, eight to 10,000 years

Amy Martin:

ago, when we could benefit from from tremendous harmony in our

Amy Martin:

rainy seasons, in our growing seasons, in the stability of our

Amy Martin:

climate. That made sense to sow and harvest, because we could

Amy Martin:

get the benefit from that investment basically each year.

Amy Martin:

So that is, I think, a very strong piece of the puzzle here,

Amy Martin:

that the Holocene is so so necessary for us.

Amy Martin:

So throughout the last 10,000 years or so, average

Amy Martin:

global temperatures fluctuated around the 14 degree Celsius

Amy Martin:

mark, but not by much. The Earth never got more than one degree

Amy Martin:

colder or hotter than that until people started burning massive

Amy Martin:

amounts of fossil fuels, releasing heat-trapping gasses

Amy Martin:

into the air.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: So we have already crashed through the

Amy Martin:

warmest temperature on Earth since we left the last Ice Age.

Amy Martin:

We've already gone through. So we are de facto already outside

Amy Martin:

of the Holocene range.

Amy Martin:

One thing that's really important to understand

Amy Martin:

here is that climate is not binary. It's on a spectrum. So

Amy Martin:

it's not like if we hit 1.6 degrees we suddenly wake up to

Amy Martin:

an utterly changed world.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: It's not an escarpment where we just

Amy Martin:

abruptly collapse, but the risk is that things start gradually

Amy Martin:

and unstoppably moving in the wrong direction.

Amy Martin:

So think of global heating, like turning the knob

Amy Martin:

on a stove, not flipping a light switch. Changes are incremental,

Amy Martin:

but as Johan said, even at one and a half degrees of warming,

Amy Martin:

we're already far outside of what would be happening

Amy Martin:

naturally if we hadn't started binging on fossil fuels around

Amy Martin:

200 years ago.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: Just think of this, the IPCC, the

Amy Martin:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the science

Amy Martin:

panel of the UN shows that if we continue burning fossil fuels as

Amy Martin:

today, we may reach between three and four degrees Celsius

Amy Martin:

warming by the end of this century. And if you check that

Amy Martin:

point, what would that correspond to in time? If you

Amy Martin:

would wind that back in geological history, well, it

Amy Martin:

would actually wind back the climate clock to the planet as

Amy Martin:

we had it at roughly 10 million years ago.

Amy Martin:

Wow.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: 10 million years ago. So in my mind, that

Amy Martin:

sentence is enough to say, how, how can there be one skeptic in

Amy Martin:

this, in this world? I mean, I mean, it's never happened

Amy Martin:

before, as far as we know geologically, that anything has

Amy Martin:

changed so fast. It's been changing, I can assure you, but

Amy Martin:

never at that rate, and never at that scale.

Amy Martin:

Johan says if we manage to keep temperature rise

Amy Martin:

to one and a half degrees and no more, we might just barely be

Amy Martin:

able to hold on to something like the Holocene. But we can't

Amy Martin:

say for sure, because of this whole climate is on a spectrum

Amy Martin:

thing, or maybe a better way to think of climate is as a complex

Amy Martin:

network of processes, and each of them is on a spectrum. And no

Amy Martin:

one knows for sure where the tripwires are, how and when we

Amy Martin:

might trigger interactions between the planet systems that

Amy Martin:

could send us into truly terrifying territory, maybe even

Amy Martin:

the hothouse Earth scenario, which would fundamentally alter

Amy Martin:

all life on the planet. A huge proportion of species would go

Amy Martin:

extinct and human civilizations would crumble. We might not die

Amy Martin:

out as a species, but we would be radically changed, and it

Amy Martin:

would hurt.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: And as you can imagine, this is like the grand

Amy Martin:

quest. Where is that tipping point where we are at risk of

Amy Martin:

moving from a Holocene state that can support us towards

Amy Martin:

gliding towards a hothouse? And the truth is, we do not know

Amy Martin:

where that point is.

Amy Martin:

Let's not find out.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: Let's not find out. I mean, we cannot

Amy Martin:

experiment with our home because we don't have a, you know, we

Amy Martin:

don't have an alternative.

Amy Martin:

But one thing we do know is that once we hit a

Amy Martin:

tipping point, it's next to impossible to untip it. That's

Amy Martin:

because of the time lag I mentioned earlier, this gap

Amy Martin:

between cause and effect in the climate system. Johan thinks

Amy Martin:

about this in terms of commitment time and impact time.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: Impact time is the moment when things blow up.

Amy Martin:

Meaning, when can we expect six meter sea level rise? When can

Amy Martin:

we expect the Greenland ice sheet to have melt? When can we

Amy Martin:

expect the collapse of the coral reef systems?

Amy Martin:

Impact time gets a lot of attention. When will we

Amy Martin:

lose all the sea ice? When does Miami become uninhabitable? When

Amy Martin:

do these various climate bombs explode? But Johan thinks we

Amy Martin:

should be paying a lot more attention to commitment time,

Amy Martin:

because that's the point at which we've set the course that

Amy Martin:

will inevitably lead to those outcomes when we've assembled

Amy Martin:

the bomb and set the timer with no way to turn it off.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: And what we find in science, increasingly,

Amy Martin:

is that the commitment time for many of these occurrences is in

Amy Martin:

the next 10 years. We have to avoid pressing the on buttons,

Amy Martin:

and that is about commitment time. It's not about impact

Amy Martin:

time, it's commitment time.

Amy Martin:

So I've got some good news and some bad news for

Amy Martin:

you now. Let's start with the bad. It's quite likely that

Amy Martin:

we've already moved through the commitment time for hitting 1.5

Amy Martin:

degrees in the future, that damage has been done, but the

Amy Martin:

good news is that we can still influence the crucial question

Amy Martin:

of what happens after that. Are we going to reach 1.5 degrees

Amy Martin:

and keep on going, continuing to warm the world, or will we graze

Amy Martin:

the 1.5 mark and then start bending the temperature curve

Amy Martin:

back down. The difference between these two options is

Amy Martin:

vast, and that's what we're deciding right now and over the

Amy Martin:

next seven-ish years. It's like we have a lit stick of dynamite

Amy Martin:

in our own living room, and we're watching the flame move

Amy Martin:

closer and closer to the explosives, but we haven't

Amy Martin:

decided whether or not to put it out. It's an extremely dangerous

Amy Martin:

situation, but our choices have a huge impact on whether or not

Amy Martin:

that danger gets amplified or diffused.

Amy Martin:

This might sound bizarre in such a dark time, honestly, but I

Amy Martin:

actually find great hope in that. Like, we haven't pushed

Amy Martin:

the button yet. We're really close, but we haven't, like we

Amy Martin:

actually still have time to not do that.

Amy Martin:

Johan Rockström: Yeah, that is correct, and that's that's a

Amy Martin:

very good way to put it, that as far as we know today, at 1.2

Amy Martin:

we're starting to feel the pain. At 1.5 there will be more pain,

Amy Martin:

but as far as we know, we will not cross irreversible tipping

Amy Martin:

points. There won't, won't be a pressure of the on buttons. So

Amy Martin:

if we can hold the 1.5 line, we will have you know, higher

Amy Martin:

frequency of extreme events. We will have you know adaptation

Amy Martin:

challenges, but at least we will still be within a manageable

Amy Martin:

Holocene, like planet, and it's between 1.5 and two that it

Amy Martin:

starts getting, you know, scary and beyond two, I would strongly

Amy Martin:

advise us not to go.

Amy Martin:

The reality is, no amount of tinkering with our

Amy Martin:

climate is safe. So what we're really talking about here is how

Amy Martin:

much risk we're willing to live with as we transition off of

Amy Martin:

fossil fuels. That's what 1.5 degrees is, essentially: a

Amy Martin:

mutually agreed upon level of danger. And this is where the

Amy Martin:

earth science and the social science really start to weave

Amy Martin:

together, because the level of danger you're willing to accept

Amy Martin:

has a lot to do with who you are and where you live,

Amy Martin:

Dr. Adelle Thomas: Between one and a half degrees and two

Amy Martin:

degrees. We can see islands underwater.

Amy Martin:

We'll have more after this short break.

Matt Herlihy:

Threshold is nonprofit, independent and

Matt Herlihy:

listener funded. You can support the show at thresholdpodcast.org

Amy Martin:

Welcome back to Threshold. I'm Amy Martin, and

Amy Martin:

in this episode, we're trying to understand how the world landed

Amy Martin:

on 1.5 degrees as our global climate goal. Before the break,

Amy Martin:

we spent some time on the physical science. Now for the

Amy Martin:

politics. I'm standing in a crowd of 10s of 1000s of people

Amy Martin:

in Glasgow, Scotland. They've gathered to try to push world

Amy Martin:

leaders to take meaningful action at the UN climate

Amy Martin:

conference.

Protesters:

What do we want? Climate justice! When do we want

Protesters:

it? Now!

Amy Martin:

This is just one of dozens of times I heard the

Amy Martin:

words "climate justice" during the two weeks of the conference,

Amy Martin:

and it wasn't only at protests. This phrase is all over the

Amy Martin:

climate discourse, but I think it's possible that some people

Amy Martin:

hear it and think, wait, isn't climate a science problem? How

Amy Martin:

is it a justice issue? The truth is, it's both, and the justice

Amy Martin:

part can be traced back to the simple fact that the climate

Amy Martin:

crisis was created by people and it was not created equally. Some

Amy Martin:

countries have done a lot more to cause the problem than

Amy Martin:

others, and climate damage doesn't land equally either,

Amy Martin:

many of the people and places that are feeling the impacts of

Amy Martin:

climate change first and hardest, did the least to cause

Amy Martin:

it. One of those places is Bangladesh.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: Well, Bangladesh is very much a global

Amy Martin:

poster child for the impacts of climate change.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq is the director of the

Amy Martin:

International Center for Climate Change and Development at the

Amy Martin:

Independent University Bangladesh.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: You're free to call me Saleem. That's my first

Amy Martin:

name.

Amy Martin:

The first time I talked to Saleem was in August

Amy Martin:

of 2021 I was in the US. He was in the capital of Bangladesh,

Amy Martin:

Dhaka, and you can hear the sounds of the traffic out his

Amy Martin:

office window while we talked.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: We are a poor, very dense populated country,

Amy Martin:

living on the delta of two of the world's biggest rivers, the

Amy Martin:

Ganges and the Brahmaputra, which regularly flood. And we

Amy Martin:

also suffer from cyclones that come in regularly from the Bay

Amy Martin:

of Bengal and affect the coastal population of the country.

Amy Martin:

Saleem says from where he sits, the question of

Amy Martin:

what the global climate goal should be has never felt

Amy Martin:

abstract or academic. He's a biologist, and he served as a

Amy Martin:

lead author on multiple UN Scientific Reports.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: We've known for quite a long time now that

Amy Martin:

we are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and we've

Amy Martin:

been investing in improving our ability to cope with those

Amy Martin:

impacts of climate change, and also advocating at the global

Amy Martin:

level for countries that are responsible for causing the

Amy Martin:

problem to reduce their emissions so that we don't have

Amy Martin:

a much bigger problem than we otherwise might have.

Amy Martin:

When Saleem says he wants the countries responsible

Amy Martin:

for causing the problem to reduce their emissions, this is

Amy Martin:

what he's referring to. According to the UN Environment

Amy Martin:

Program, the G20 nations that's 20 of the world's biggest

Amy Martin:

economies, are responsible for 78% of cumulative global

Amy Martin:

greenhouse gas emissions. In rough terms, that means 10% of

Amy Martin:

countries have done almost 80% of the damage. That's a

Amy Martin:

statistic that's worth hanging on to, because it informs

Amy Martin:

everything about climate I mean, we all know how annoying it can

Amy Martin:

be to have to clean up our own messes, but to be forced to deal

Amy Martin:

with a mess that someone else has made that's spilling out

Amy Martin:

onto you, that's a whole 'nother thing entirely. And that's

Amy Martin:

what's happening in Bangladesh, the average person there burns a

Amy Martin:

tiny fraction of the carbon that the average American burns every

Amy Martin:

year, but the impacts of climate change are hitting the country

Amy Martin:

very hard. As Saleem said, Bangladesh is a densely

Amy Martin:

populated country. About 165 million people live there, about

Amy Martin:

half the population of the United States living in an area

Amy Martin:

roughly the size of the state of Illinois. And as the climate

Amy Martin:

warms and sea levels rise, all of those people have less and

Amy Martin:

less land to live on. The coastal areas of Bangladesh are

Amy Martin:

getting swallowed up by the sea, and without a dramatic reduction

Amy Martin:

in global emissions, soon, millions of people will be

Amy Martin:

forced to relocate.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: If that happens, which we hope it won't

Amy Martin:

happen, it can still be prevented, then we are talking

Amy Martin:

about millions of people being displaced from the low-lying

Amy Martin:

coastal area of the country. The order of magnitude of numbers of

Amy Martin:

these climate refugees or migrants is about 10 million

Amy Martin:

over the next decade or two. We are certainly not prepared for

Amy Martin:

that, but we are thinking about what we can do and how we can

Amy Martin:

prepare for that.

Amy Martin:

Saleem has been trying to help his country

Amy Martin:

prepare for decades. He's attended every single one of the

Amy Martin:

global climate conferences, starting way back in 1995.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: That's right, so I'm one of the few people

Amy Martin:

who's been to every single one of the 25 conferences of parties

Amy Martin:

that have been held so far, I should point out, I don't go as

Amy Martin:

a negotiator. I'm a I'm a researcher, I'm an academic, I'm

Amy Martin:

a professor. I go as an observer.

Amy Martin:

So Saleem has had a front row seat to this question

Amy Martin:

of what the global climate goal should be. From the beginning,

Amy Martin:

there was that fuzzy objective back in the 90s of preventing

Amy Martin:

dangerous anthropogenic interference, but to figure out

Amy Martin:

what dangerous interference actually meant in scientific

Amy Martin:

terms, and then to get the whole world to agree to that was no

Amy Martin:

simple task. It took years, and during that time, as studies

Amy Martin:

were run and climate conferences were held, two degrees emerged

Amy Martin:

as the target. Limiting global heating to two degrees above pre

Amy Martin:

industrial levels. That was never officially decreed or

Amy Martin:

anything. But in 2015 as the world headed to the Paris

Amy Martin:

Climate Conference, two degrees was the number on many people's

Amy Martin:

lips. There was just one problem. Some people, including

Amy Martin:

Saleem, said that was the wrong goal.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: The vulnerable countries came together, and

Amy Martin:

they argued that two degrees is no longer a safe threshold. The

Amy Martin:

argument was that it's safe for many who are better off, but

Amy Martin:

it's not safe for the poorest people on the planet, and we're

Amy Martin:

talking hundreds of millions of the poorest people on the

Amy Martin:

planet, they will not be safe under two degrees. In order to

Amy Martin:

make them safe, we have to lower the threshold to 1.5 degrees.

Amy Martin:

Saleem says scientists and policy makers

Amy Martin:

from Bangladesh had been pushing to make 1.5 the goal for over a

Amy Martin:

decade already, and they weren't alone.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Adelle Thomas: We are at a critical point. We need to get

Amy Martin:

emissions to zero now, otherwise, things are going to

Amy Martin:

be much worse in the future.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Adelle Thomas is a Senior Fellow at the Climate

Amy Martin:

Change Research Center at the University of the Bahamas, and

Amy Martin:

she's a senior research associate with climate

Amy Martin:

analytics. Is a global think tank. Her area of expertise is

Amy Martin:

geography, and like Saleem, she's been a lead author on

Amy Martin:

multiple UN Scientific Reports.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Adelle Thomas: At one and a half degrees, it's going to be

Amy Martin:

worse than it is now, but at that level of warming, we still

Amy Martin:

have a shot to survive. At two degrees Celsius, it becomes much

Amy Martin:

more difficult for us to envision a future for many of

Amy Martin:

our islands.

Amy Martin:

The Bahamas is part of a group of countries known as

Amy Martin:

"small island developing states" or SIDS. Think Fiji Papua, New

Amy Martin:

Guinea, Jamaica. Adelle says scientists living and working on

Amy Martin:

these islands have been seeing the impacts of climate change

Amy Martin:

for a long time, and not only sea level rise, they're also

Amy Martin:

dealing with drought and many other problems.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Adelle Thomas: Our marine systems, which are so incredibly

Amy Martin:

important for us, are absolutely at risk at two degrees Celsius.

Amy Martin:

So coral reefs at one and a half degrees, there's still a chance

Amy Martin:

of coral reefs being able to survive. At two degrees, 99% of

Amy Martin:

coral reefs are expected to die. So there is a significant,

Amy Martin:

significant difference in the risks that we face at one and a

Amy Martin:

half versus two degrees, which is why SIDS came up with this

Amy Martin:

whole "1.5 to stay alive" slogan that they used the negotiations

Amy Martin:

to really try to bring across how important it is for us to

Amy Martin:

limit temperatures to one and a half degrees.

Amy Martin:

1.5 to stay alive. This became the rallying cry of

Amy Martin:

small island developing states and dozens of other countries

Amy Martin:

that could see the writing on the seawall, even one degree of

Amy Martin:

warming put them at enormous risk. Two degrees was

Amy Martin:

unthinkable.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Adelle Thomas: For low lying places like the Bahamas, the

Amy Martin:

difference between one and a half and two degrees is your

Amy Martin:

islands will be underwater.

Amy Martin:

So it's existence.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Adelle Thomas: Yes, the difference between one and a

Amy Martin:

half and two is the existence of an island.

Amy Martin:

Of a whole nation of people's homes, of everything

Amy Martin:

they've ever known and their whole history.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Adelle Thomas: Yes, yes. So this is why we have to be so

Amy Martin:

vocal, and, you know, not passive, because our existence

Amy Martin:

is at risk. And I think that if it was any other country whose

Amy Martin:

existence was at risk, they would be just as adamant about

Amy Martin:

us limiting temperatures to 1.5.

Amy Martin:

A few years ago, while reporting for season two

Amy Martin:

of our show, I spent time on the island community of Shishmaref,

Amy Martin:

Alaska, which is also very threatened by climate change.

Amy Martin:

And while I was talking to Adelle and Saleem, faces of the

Amy Martin:

people I met there were flashing through my mind. Kids who were

Amy Martin:

playing a few yards from the seawall, elders pointing out

Amy Martin:

into the ocean, telling me what the place looked like a few

Amy Martin:

decades ago. Where I saw nothing but waves, they saw all of these

Amy Martin:

drowned ghosts, places and memories buried by the sea.

Amy Martin:

Shishmaref and dozens of other coastal Alaskan communities are

Amy Martin:

facing the same existential crises Adelle is talking about

Amy Martin:

in the Bahamas. But when I left Alaska and tried to explain the

Amy Martin:

situation there to other people, more than one person said, Well,

Amy Martin:

you know, winners and losers. If their island is getting washed

Amy Martin:

away, I guess they can't live there anymore sad, but I'm not

Amy Martin:

really sure it's my problem. I asked Adelle how she responds to

Amy Martin:

that line of thinking.

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Dr. Adelle Thomas: I think people that say winners and

Amy Martin:

losers often are the winners because they can't imagine what

Amy Martin:

it would be like to be a loser. If you were faced with prospect

Amy Martin:

of not having a home, then I think your mentality would be

Amy Martin:

much different, and you would be able to see why it's such a big

Amy Martin:

deal. So if you yourself could imagine that you no longer have

Amy Martin:

a country, and you would be, you know, at the whim of whoever

Amy Martin:

wants to take you in. When we see the attitudes towards

Amy Martin:

immigrants currently, imagine now we have complete countries

Amy Martin:

where no one can live and those people must move somewhere else,

Amy Martin:

imagine yourself as that person. And can you still say there are

Amy Martin:

winners and losers and the losers just have to figure it

Amy Martin:

out. I think people should try to be much more empathetic and

Amy Martin:

put themselves in a situation of not having anything and and see.

Amy Martin:

That if it's still possible for us to limit temperatures to 1.5

Amy Martin:

then we should be doing everything possible to do that.

Amy Martin:

So why not do that? If holding warming to 1.5

Amy Martin:

degrees means preventing entire countries from getting wiped off

Amy Martin:

the map and protecting millions of people from becoming

Amy Martin:

homeless, if it means having some chance of maintaining the

Amy Martin:

Holocene like climate that has allowed us to flourish, why not

Amy Martin:

aim for that? Why was two degrees the de facto goal back

Amy Martin:

in 2015 before the Paris Climate Conference? To answer that, we

Amy Martin:

have to return to the 10% of the countries who've created 80% of

Amy Martin:

the problem. Setting the global goal at 1.5 versus two degrees

Amy Martin:

meant those countries would have to make more changes faster. To

Amy Martin:

put it very simply, aiming for 1.5 is harder than aiming for

Amy Martin:

two so the major emitters strongly resisted as long as

Amy Martin:

they could.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: Going into Paris, the United States, China,

Amy Martin:

they were all against it. They were not going to agree.

Amy Martin:

In fact, Saleem says being against 1.5 was almost the

Amy Martin:

only thing the U.S. and China agreed on at the start of the

Amy Martin:

Paris conference.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: And I'll give you a rough framing of how these

Amy Martin:

private conversations would go, particularly with countries like

Amy Martin:

the US and Germany and the UK and so on. In private, they

Amy Martin:

would say, don't ask us to agree to 1.5 it's just too difficult.

Amy Martin:

It's going to be, you know, very, very difficult for us to

Amy Martin:

do that. Two degrees is difficult enough, 1.5 is even

Amy Martin:

more difficult. It's going to be extremely hard for us to sell it

Amy Martin:

or agree to it. To which our answer was, it may be difficult,

Amy Martin:

but it's not impossible, and as long as it's possible, you have

Amy Martin:

to do it.

Amy Martin:

Saleem says representatives of the poorer

Amy Martin:

and more vulnerable countries came into Paris prepared to

Amy Martin:

press harder than they ever had before. They knew it was now or

Amy Martin:

never they had to get the 1.5 goal written into the agreement

Amy Martin:

if it was ever going to have a chance of being realized. And he

Amy Martin:

says that led to a lot of intense conversations.

Amy Martin:

When you say that there was a lot of arm twisting and backdoor

Amy Martin:

conversations. I mean, were you privy to any of those? Were you

Amy Martin:

seeing somebody like, I'm from the Marshall Islands, and you've

Amy Martin:

got to listen to me, like, is it that personal?

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: Very much so very, very personal.

Amy Martin:

It was personal, he says, because the stakes are so

Amy Martin:

personal and so incredibly high.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: You cannot have a heads of all the

Amy Martin:

governments of the world meeting and effectively saying that we

Amy Martin:

find it too difficult to help the poorest people on the

Amy Martin:

planet. So you guys are on your own. You're not going to

Amy Martin:

survive, and we're not going to do anything to help you. We will

Amy Martin:

help the other five, 6 billion people who are better off to

Amy Martin:

help them survive climate change, but we are writing you

Amy Martin:

off. You the island, small island states. You the poor,

Amy Martin:

vulnerable, developing countries and people, sorry, we're not

Amy Martin:

going to help you. And that's a impossible thing for them to

Amy Martin:

say.

Amy Martin:

But that is in effect, what they were saying,

Amy Martin:

even if they didn't want to say it in public. So in Paris,

Amy Martin:

thousands of scientists, political leaders, negotiators

Amy Martin:

and activists came together to force the issue. Representatives

Amy Martin:

from the small island developing states, especially the Marshall

Amy Martin:

Islands and other parts of the developing world took a leading

Amy Martin:

role. They had a unified message, two degrees is not good

Amy Martin:

enough. We have to aim for 1.5. They argued in the side

Amy Martin:

corridors. They protested outside the conference grounds.

Amy Martin:

They carried signs saying, "1.5 to Stay Alive." But Saleem says

Amy Martin:

throughout the whole two weeks of the conference, it was not

Amy Martin:

clear what would happen.

Laurent Fabius:

It is my deep conviction that we have come up

Laurent Fabius:

with an ambitious and balanced agreement.

Amy Martin:

This is Laurent Fabius speaking through an

Amy Martin:

interpreter at the Paris Climate Conference. Fabius was France's

Amy Martin:

Minister for Foreign Affairs at the time, and he was also the

Amy Martin:

conference president. This recording is from a speech he

Amy Martin:

gave on December 12, 2015, the 13th day of what was supposed to

Amy Martin:

be a 12 day conference with all the global delegates gathered in

Amy Martin:

a big hall.

Laurent Fabius:

We need to show the world that our collective

Laurent Fabius:

effort is worth more than the sum of our individual actions.

Amy Martin:

The battle over 1.5 versus two degrees was just one

Amy Martin:

of many issues they'd been struggling to address at the

Amy Martin:

conference. There had been tons of drama, accusations of

Amy Martin:

subterfuge, unlikely alliances, sub deals and side deals and

Amy Martin:

multiple all nighters. And now, on the last day, delegates from

Amy Martin:

195 countries have a final draft of the agreement in their hands.

Amy Martin:

Fabius is essentially giving them a pep talk before they go

Amy Martin:

off to scrutinize it and decide whether or not to approve it.

Laurent Fabius:

This text, the one that we have built together.

Laurent Fabius:

Our text is the best possible balance.

Amy Martin:

Fabius knows there are a lot of people in that room

Amy Martin:

who are not happy. Some think it goes too far. Some say it isn't

Amy Martin:

nearly strong enough. So he's basically begging everyone to

Amy Martin:

keep moving forward despite their differences.

Laurent Fabius:

Today, we are close to the final outcome, if

Laurent Fabius:

adopted this text will mark a historic turning point. It

Laurent Fabius:

confirms our key objective, the objective, which is vital, that

Laurent Fabius:

of continuing to have a mean temperature well below two

Laurent Fabius:

degrees, and to endeavor to limit that increase to 1.5

Laurent Fabius:

degrees.

Amy Martin:

And finally, later that day, it happened.

Amy Martin:

The Paris Climate Agreement was accepted.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: I was there. I was in the room when that

Amy Martin:

happened.

Amy Martin:

What was it like?

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: Well, we are all on our feet, you know,

Amy Martin:

clapping and like crazy, because it was a huge achievement.

Amy Martin:

I mean, if I were you, I would have been bawling.

Amy Martin:

Were you crying when the gavel came down?

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: I was I was very emotional, very emotional.

Amy Martin:

With the signing of the Paris Agreement, the world

Amy Martin:

had finally united around a central climate goal, and

Amy Martin:

limiting warming to no more than 1.5 degrees was part of it. The

Amy Martin:

language wasn't as robust as many people wanted. 1.5 was

Amy Martin:

included as an aspiration, not a firm commitment, but still, it

Amy Martin:

was a major step forward.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: We did everything we could do to

Amy Martin:

persuade other countries to come on board. And one by one, by one

Amy Martin:

by one, they came on board. They supported us.

Amy Martin:

And since Paris, the case for making 1.5 the global

Amy Martin:

goal has only grown stronger. More science has come out,

Amy Martin:

making it even clearer that two degrees of heating is

Amy Martin:

dangerously high by insisting on protection for their own

Amy Martin:

communities, the 1.5 to stay alive crowd was actually

Amy Martin:

protecting all of us.

Amy Martin:

Dr. Saleemul Huq: To me, that is really the essence of whatever

Amy Martin:

we want to do to tackle climate change. It's the 1.5 it's the

Amy Martin:

iconic number that everybody now has to be judged by. And we can

Amy Martin:

judge countries on whether they're doing enough or not to

Amy Martin:

stay below 1.5, we can judge companies whether they're doing

Amy Martin:

enough. We can judge cities whether they're doing enough.

Amy Martin:

This is now the measure of testing the seriousness of

Amy Martin:

actions. Everybody is doing a little bit, little bit doesn't

Amy Martin:

count. Are they doing enough? And how do you define enough?

Amy Martin:

Are they doing enough to stay below 1.5.

Amy Martin:

The more I learn about climate change, the more I

Amy Martin:

believe that the heart of this problem is conceptual. We

Amy Martin:

understand the core scientific processes at work here. We know

Amy Martin:

what we need to do: shift our economy away from coal, oil and

Amy Martin:

methane gas as quickly as we possibly can. That's difficult,

Amy Martin:

but by no means impossible. What makes it feel next to impossible

Amy Martin:

is our inability to imagine alternative realities. It's hard

Amy Martin:

to visualize a modern, technologically advanced society

Amy Martin:

that isn't powered by fossil fuels. It's hard to conceive of

Amy Martin:

what life would actually be like in a perpetually chaotic climate

Amy Martin:

spiraling toward a hothouse Earth, and it's very hard for

Amy Martin:

people living in relative comfort, people like me, to

Amy Martin:

imagine losing everything and having nowhere to go, no one to

Amy Martin:

turn to, no one who wants to take us in. But people who are

Amy Martin:

already living closer to the edge can imagine it, and because

Amy Martin:

they could feel what more than one and a half degrees of

Amy Martin:

heating might mean for them, they rallied to prevent that.

Amy Martin:

We're used to thinking of world leaders as the people with the

Amy Martin:

most power, but with climate, the true world leaders might be

Amy Martin:

the people with the least power. And the best imaginations.

Claire:

I'm Claire from Charlotte, North Carolina.

Claire:

Reporting for this season of Threshold was funded by the Park

Claire:

Foundation, the High Stakes Foundation, the Pleiades

Claire:

Foundation, NewsMatch, the Llewellyn Foundation, and

Claire:

listeners. This work depends on people who believe in it and

Claire:

choose to support it, people like you. Join our community at

Claire:

thresholdpodcast.org

Amy Martin:

This episode of Threshold was produced and

Amy Martin:

reported by me, Amy Martin, with help from Nick Mott and Erika

Amy Martin:

Janek. The music is by Todd Sickafoose. The rest of the

Amy Martin:

Threshold team is Eva Kalea, Taliah Farnsworth, Caysi Simpson

Amy Martin:

and Deneen Weiske. Our intern is Melvin Zaid. Special thanks to

Amy Martin:

Sarah Sneath, Sally Deng, Maggy Contreras, Hana Carey, Dan

Amy Martin:

Carreno, Luca Borghese, Julia Berry, Kara Cromwell, Katie

Amy Martin:

deFusco, Caroline Kurtz and Gabby Piamonte. Additional

Amy Martin:

special thanks to our beloved home public radio station,

Amy Martin:

Montana Public Radio, and also to Addie Terwilliger, Ali

Amy Martin:

Solomon, Audrey Martin, Gaylen Wobeter, Matt Herlihy, and

Amy Martin:

Michael Connor. In our next episode, join me for a guided

Amy Martin:

tour of the atmosphere.

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