Closing Bell Friday | September 11, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for September 11, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Twenty-five years ago this morning, I was in Oklahoma City working as a commodity and futures broker and hedging specialist. I remember exactly where I was when September 11 began to unfold. I remember watching it happen and realizing very quickly that whatever we thought that Tuesday was going to be about no longer mattered. Some days fade with time. That one never has. Twenty-five years later, I still think about the people who went to work that morning and never came home, the first responders who ran toward danger, and the families who have carried that loss every day since. Today, I simply remember. September 11, 2001. Never forget.

HOST: After that remembrance — the week. The shortened post-Labor Day tape ended with margin pressure shifting rather than disappearing.

SHAWN: Beef packers regained weekly profitability while feedlots moved deeper into the red. Pork margins compressed across both production and processing. Chicken remains the major protein with growing supply. Imported lean continues to trade well below domestic, although physical availability may limit how quickly the new tariff-free window is filled. Crude’s move above one hundred dollars added another layer of cost across freight, processing, and distribution.

HOST: Beef. The margin moved.

SHAWN: Sterling’s Beef Profit Tracker has estimated packer margin at plus one hundred sixty-nine twenty-two a head. Unhedged feedlot margin deteriorated to minus three hundred twenty-eight seventy-five. The breakeven on cattle marketed last week climbed to two forty-two fifty-two against five-area Choice steers averaging two nineteen oh four. A year ago, feedlots were making more than seven hundred a head. One profitable week does not mean the packing problem is solved.

HOST: Cattle sellers were pushing back Friday morning.

SHAWN: Asking prices moved to two twenty-five and higher live, with a small northern dressed trade reported at three fifty-five. Packers are buying for a full upcoming week, but feeders have little incentive to keep surrendering margin now that their own economics have turned sharply negative. Choice was around three seventy-eight. Select held near three fifty-two.

HOST: The more interesting move may be in the grind.

SHAWN: Domestic fresh nineties were around four thirty-five. Eighty-fives around three seventy-nine. Fresh fifties fell to roughly ninety-one cents. USDA characterized beef trimmings as mostly sharply lower on light demand and heavy offerings. That changes the equation even if domestic lean remains expensive. The ninety is only half the story. Watch the blend.

HOST: Chicken. Supply remains the difference.

SHAWN: Year-to-date chicken slaughter is up one point two percent. Cumulative broiler chick placements remain about two percent ahead of twenty twenty-five. USDA describes whole birds as steady with adequate supplies, breast meat at least steady, fair wing demand, and firm dark meat. Export markets were active. Twenty-seven members of Congress are pressing U S T R over remaining China poultry restrictions, arguing lost access is costing U.S. producers more than eight hundred million dollars a year. The pounds are there. Export access will help determine where they clear.

HOST: Pork. Both sides are getting squeezed.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish at forty-three forty-six a head, down from forty-six eighty-eight last week and seventy-six sixty-eight a year ago. Packer margin narrowed to two seventeen a head. Smithfield expects a seventy to ninety million dollar third-quarter operating loss in Fresh Pork, with Hog Production projected to lose another twenty-five to forty-five million. The cutout was around ninety-two cents, with bellies taking another significant step lower.

HOST: Demand is part of it.

SHAWN: July U.S. pork exports fell to five hundred twenty-eight point seven million pounds, down four point six percent year over year and almost one hundred fifty million pounds below the March peak. After production, exports, and imports, Steiner estimates domestic pork availability was two point nine percent above last year. More pork is staying home while margins tighten on both sides of the chain.

HOST: Global. The import window meets physical reality.

SHAWN: The additional three hundred thousand metric ton tariff-free beef window is one of the biggest fall variables. S and P Global says it may be difficult for Brazil and Paraguay to ship anything approaching one hundred thousand metric tons a month. Their team currently estimates U.S. imports could run around thirty-five to forty thousand metric tons a month under current conditions. At that pace, a substantial portion of the window would remain unused. Brazil-origin ninety C L has been indicated around three oh five or lower, against domestic fresh nineties still above four thirty-five. China’s Brazilian beef quota was reported about ninety-nine percent complete. Australian cattle remain tight. Asian buyers continue competing for product. The tariff window is real. The assumption that all three hundred thousand metric tons simply shows up on schedule is not.

HOST: Policy. COOL is back in the political discussion. There is not yet a new mandatory beef-labeling regime. An actual rule change matters more than the headline. On poultry, Chinese access remains unresolved while U.S. chicken supplies keep growing. On beef, implementation of the tariff-free window — not the headline number — will determine how much additional lean actually reaches U.S. buyers.

SHAWN: This week in review. Packer margins turned positive as feedlot losses deepened. Domestic nineties softened, fifties dropped below a dollar, and imported lean stayed substantially cheaper. Smithfield warned of third-quarter losses while Sterling showed pork profitability tightening. Chicken slaughter and placements remain ahead of last year. Crude moved above one hundred.

HOST: Procurement radar.

SHAWN: Blend economics are improving faster than the domestic ninety price alone suggests. Cheaper fifties and discounted imported lean deserve as much attention as domestic lean. Falling wholesale pork values create buying opportunities, but weak producer and packer margins say the economics remain unsettled. Chicken coverage is still structurally less constrained than beef. Recheck landed-cost assumptions. This week’s move above one hundred crude can erase part of a raw-material advantage before the load reaches the plant.

HOST: Into Monday: cash cattle leverage, imported ninety bookings, pork cutout stabilization, post-WASDE feed direction, and whether crude holds above one hundred.

SHAWN: Latest established values from September tenth. Choice three seventy-eight. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four thirty-five. Eighty-fives three seventy-nine. Fifties ninety-one cents. Pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies a dollar twenty-one. October live cattle two seventeen eighty-two. October crude one oh two forty-eight. Cattle slaughter year-to-date down eight percent. Hogs down one point two. Chicken up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: The shortened week gave buyers some openings. Fat trim is cheaper. Domestic lean is backing away from summer highs. Imported lean remains heavily discounted. Pork values are under pressure. Chicken continues to carry more supply. None of those opportunities exist in a vacuum. Cattle sellers are trying to regain leverage. Global buyers are competing for imported beef. Crude above one hundred raised the cost of moving protein through the system. The opportunity is there. The question next week is how much of it survives the landed cost. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell Friday for September 11, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.