Capital is moving out of software and back into physical systems. What actually changes when that happens?
In this episode of VHTB, Justus Kilian, Brian Mejeur, and Matt Gjertsen look at the rise of what JPMorgan calls “Halo stocks”, heavy asset, low obsolescence companies spanning robotics, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
We break down why investors are suddenly re-rating hardware, from AI-driven disruption in SaaS to geopolitical pressure on supply chains and a cultural shift toward rebuilding industrial capability. Beneath that momentum, a more complex reality is forming.
Capital is moving faster than talent can adapt. Early-stage hard tech companies are raising quickly, but hiring remains constrained, with top engineers increasingly opting to found companies themselves or work in flexible, high-autonomy roles instead of traditional employment.
What this means for founders becomes clearer: how vision and compensation are evolving, and how team structures are shifting in a market where money is abundant but alignment is harder than ever.
Episode Highlights
[00:00] Introduction to VHTB and the “Halo Stocks” framework
[01:48] Why investors are rotating from software into hardware
[03:01] AI pressure, geopolitical risk, and the return of industrial strategy
[07:32] COVID, supply chains, and the urgency to rebuild infrastructure
[09:53] Why capital is flooding early-stage hard tech companies
[12:25] Why top engineers are choosing founding over employment
[16:40] Vision vs comp: what actually attracts great people today
[18:49] The new rules of hiring in a capital-rich hard tech market
Episode Takeaways
- Why investors are shifting back into hardware, and what “Halo stocks” actually signal about the next cycle
- How AI is reshaping software investing and pushing capital toward physical systems
- Why supply chain fragility and geopolitics are accelerating demand for industrial capacity
- Why “low obsolescence hardware” is more complicated than it looks in practice
- The real hiring bottleneck in hard tech: too much capital, not enough aligned talent
- Why top engineers are increasingly choosing founding or consulting over full-time roles
- How compensation alone is losing power as a lever in elite technical hiring
- Why storytelling and vision are becoming the most important hiring tools for founders
- What this imbalance between capital and talent means for the next wave of hard tech companies
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