Live from Las Vegas, host Ryan Nauman welcomes DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman to discuss the macro backdrop and portfolio implications. Sherman outlines DoubleLine’s fixed-income focus and multi-wrapper approach across mutual funds, ETFs, and separate accounts. They cover the new Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh, Fed independence, the tension between inflation and employment, and the challenge of financing large U.S. deficits and Treasury rollover needs. Sherman explains why 10-year yields rose during the war amid a repricing of inflation risk, why the Fed’s threshold for cuts has increased, and why he prefers the front end and belly of the curve over long bonds. They discuss tight credit spreads, risks emerging in loans/private credit, agency MBS opportunities and Fannie/Freddie uncertainty, the attractiveness of emerging markets as a way to bet against the dollar, and the role of gold in diversified portfolios.

Zephyr can help financial advisors create modern diversified portfolios. Learn more here.

Learn more about DoubleLine here.

00:40 Walkup Music Banter

01:00 Live From ETF Exchange

01:23 Meet Jeffrey Sherman

01:41 Tahoe Small Talk

03:05 DoubleLine Overview

05:35 Macro Crosscurrents Fed

07:34 New Fed Chair Risks

10:52 Fed Independence Debt

13:21 Why Yields Rose

18:12 Credit Spreads Check

22:14 What Widens Spreads

23:15 Oil and Credit Spreads

24:47 Duration Strategy Today

27:28 Curve Positioning Playbook

28:35 Agency MBS Opportunity

30:51 Fannie Freddie Overhang

35:47 EM Debt as Dollar Hedge

38:32 Advisor Portfolio Takeaways

40:59 Gold and Dollar Outlook

41:44 Tahoe Banter and Wrap

Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn

Welcome to the Adjusted for Risk Podcast.

2

Join myself, Brian Nauman as I

talk market investments economic.

3

Let's get started in life as I help

prepare you for the upcoming in markets.

4

I work for Zephyr in all

of Queens Express by.

5

Self in my podcast, guests are

solely of their own opinions and do

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not reflect the opinion of Zephyr

or Informa its parents company.

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This podcast is for information

and purposes only and should not be

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relied on for investment decisions.

9

Let's go.

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Jeffrey, you like that walkup music?

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I mean, that was amazing.

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That was amazing.

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Did everybody else get to

hear it or is it just me?

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Yeah, I, I hope everyone did be.

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I it took a lot of time trying

to pick that walkup song up.

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Well, the thing is, is that, uh, I

always have walkup music in my head,

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so I wasn't sure if it, I created that

and sourced it, or if it was from you.

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Yeah.

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So I, I, it was a good choice.

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Good.

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Good, good.

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Welcome everyone to zephyr's

Adjusted Forest podcast.

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We are on site at Exchange ETF conference

in Las Vegas, and I tell you I'm really

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happy that we've, uh, we've scheduled

this podcast outside at 11 in the

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morning before it gets really hot.

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That's a beautiful day.

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Perfect timing.

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We got, we got some fake plants behind

us and we got some real palm trees

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in front of us, so it's looking good.

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It's fantastic.

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Um, with me, Jeffrey, you don't

really need an introduction, but with

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me is one of the keynote speakers

of the event, Jeffrey Sherman.

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Uh, Jeffrey, thank you so much

for coming back on the show.

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We.

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At this event last year.

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That's right.

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Great conversation.

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Honor to have you back on.

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Normally when I open up the

podcast, say we're, you know,

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live on the shores of Lake Tahoe.

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We are not in Lake Tahoe today.

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No.

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No Dondo.

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No Dondo.

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You're not, yeah.

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You, uh, you have some connections at ta.

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Uh, yeah.

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Uh, my parents, uh, used to live up there.

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Um, you know, so I, I spent many,

uh, summers up there as well.

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And, um, as I get older, I, I don't

like the, the cold weather as much.

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Yeah.

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But, but, um, I don't think

there's a better lake in the entire

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country up than, than Lake Tahoe.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Uh.

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I am a little biased, a little biased

since I lived there, but, uh, I agree.

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Yeah.

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I, although, although we could use some

snow, Jeffrey, uh, 70 degrees this week.

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Yeah.

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Wow.

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That's pretty amazing.

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Well, there's the heat wave

going through California.

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Yeah.

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Uh, when I drove back from the

office on Thursday, it was like

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97 going through the valley.

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So, um, I guess the rest of the, the

rest of the country's gonna have any,

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any sympathy for us at all though.

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Yeah, they, they can have, they

can have the snow that's, uh.

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Ripping across the

country in those storms.

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Thank you again for coming on.

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It's an honor to have you on.

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Really excited.

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So much to talk about.

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So much to talk about.

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You know, like I said, LA we

spoke last year, same event.

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I think last year we

had the liberation day.

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Ah, to talk about.

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Yeah.

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Now we've got the conflict that

feels as if, you know, things

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have changed, but then maybe

they haven't changed a whole lot.

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Yeah.

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End of year.

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Um, but let's just start.

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Jeffrey, you're the deputy, uh, CIO,

chief Investment Officer at Double Line.

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Tell us a little bit

more about Double Line.

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Um, we're a Los Angeles based, um,

uh, investment management firm.

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We run just shy of a

hundred billion dollars.

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Um, we focus on institutional

and wealth management clients,

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so we have separate accounts.

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We run mutual funds ETFs.

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Shocking.

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We're at the ETF conference, right?

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Um, we run UIDs.

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We have an international business.

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Um, you know, we think of ourselves

as a, a full service investment firm

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with a heavy focus on fixed income.

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And that's, uh, that's one

of our specialties out there.

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And, uh, you know, we just look to

provide solutions to clients and,

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you know, we, we've always been

agnostic to what wrapper you use.

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Meaning do you buy in

a fund, a mutual fund?

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Do you buy in ETFA use it?

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It's just bringing our investment

acumen and expertise mm-hmm.

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Uh, to however people want

to access the product.

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And so, um, you know,

with the kind of, um.

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I would say the amount of growth in

the ETF industry, you can't ignore it.

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Um, but we've also not just

started an ETF business.

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We've been running actively

managed ETFs for over 10 years now.

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Um, a couple of them under spider brand,

uh, spider double line, uh, whether

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that's total return tactical or, you know,

our, our shorter duration product there.

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Um, so we have a, a lot of experience

in the ETF wrapper as well.

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Mm-hmm.

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And then, uh, four, four years ago.

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We launched our own ETF complex as well.

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So, um, we just, we kind of go to where

the markets are moving and where people

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want product and, um, you know, we, we

build products that we wanna invest in

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ourselves and hopefully, you know, that's

what other people, uh, see as well.

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So.

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Um, you know, it's continuing to grow

and, um, we're excited about, um, you

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know, just the opportunity out there.

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Yeah.

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I feel as if that's so important, Jeffrey.

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Like, I don't want to invest

in a product that the manager

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doesn't wanna invest alongside me.

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Yeah.

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Well I always, I always joke 'cause we get

a lot of things where clients will say,

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well, is this your best ideas portfolio?

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And I'm like, of course we, we

don't run a bad idea portfolio.

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Right.

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It may be bad, it may be bad, it may,

it may be a bad idea, but we didn't

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think it was a bad idea portfolio.

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Right.

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So.

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At the end of the day, we, we

have, we're bringing the same

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process to each of our products.

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It just depends on what's the parameters,

the guidelines, the, you know,

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constraints we have there and how it's

supposed to behave through a cycle.

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But in general.

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Regardless of the product you're

getting from us, you're getting the

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same type of thinking, the same folks

that are making those decisions as well.

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Mm-hmm.

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No, that's fantastic.

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I love that.

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Yeah.

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The best, the best product, best ideas.

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Well, of course they're

gonna be great ideas.

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I love it.

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So let's, let's start

on the macro level here.

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Uh, there's a lot to contend with.

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We've got a new Fed

chairman, we've got the war.

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Conflict and Iran, however

you want to say it.

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I think once you've roped in

12 or 13 countries, it's no

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longer a skirmish or a conflict.

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I think you kind of

gotta use the war word.

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So we can use the war.

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That three letter word, we can use it.

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Okay.

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Um, labor market supply,

demand has softened.

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Inflation is cool, but

it remains sticky here.

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So, but with that, economic

growth remains solid.

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Um, right now, how do you shift

through all this macro noise, this

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macro environment, and is there one

item that you're really focusing on?

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Well, that's a, that is a lot.

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Um, so from, from the standpoint

of the Fed, don't forget that

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they don't forecast growth.

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They do put in their forecast, but

their mandate has nothing to do with.

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Growth in the economy.

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So they focus on two things.

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The inflation, they

call it price stability.

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I call it that they only wanna

steal 2% of your money a year.

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Uh, that's what the inflation is.

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And I, I love the planes overhead.

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It makes us feel like we're at home.

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Um, but, but, um, but the thing is,

and then, and they always have a focus

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on what they call full employment.

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And so those two signals are the two

things that they're trying to, that are

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at the core of the central, their mandate.

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Are in conflict with each other right now.

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So that's actually a conflict.

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It's, it's not a war between,

it's not a, it's not a war

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between labor and inflation.

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It's a conflict.

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But, so what you have is, you, you

mentioned the softening and definitely the

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demand side of labor had been softening.

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Um, and, but the other thing that's

happened over the last years is we've had

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a softening of labor supply, meaning that,

you know, we have fewer people working.

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And the last jobs report was a

little tough because the, the

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participation rate, labor participation

rate went down meaningfully.

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It went down like 40 basis

points, which you don't typically

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see in a month to month.

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So I wonder if there's

some noise in there.

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But remember, we we're still kind of

giving the, the, the pullback from the

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government shutdown, you know, um, we

still have some of those things out

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there, but the Fed chairperson, it's,

it's, it's a really interesting pick to

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have wars because wars, if you go off his

voting track record and his vocalization

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of policy, he seems to be antithesis of

what Donald Trump wants of cutting rates.

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Now, obviously to get the job, you had

to at least tell him that at one point.

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So I'm sure that happened somewhere.

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But you know, he, he's, he's

historically been a bit of an

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inflation hawk, meaning that he has

a higher keener eye on, on inflation,

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but also he's a balance sheet hawk.

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He hates the size of

the Fed's balance sheet.

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And if his objective is to reduce

the size of the balance sheet,

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that's not helping monetary pay.

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That's a tightening of policy.

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Mm-hmm.

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And so someone has to buy

those treasuries is the point.

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So.

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I think that it's an interesting

pick from the standpoint that

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I think he's qualified for.

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Sure.

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Uh, I, I think he's a good pick, but

we'll have to see how, how he behaves.

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And I say that because when you

get into like the Trump orbit, you

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just, you can't extrapolate how

people have behaved in the past.

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Yeah.

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He tends to have this,

this power over people.

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So I think it'll be interesting to

watch his first press conference.

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I'm gonna go out on a limb here

and say it's not gonna go well.

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It's not gonna go well.

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'cause the reporters are armed to the

teeth and he's not used to that forum yet.

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Yeah.

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He'll get he'll, he'll,

he'll get into the job.

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But he's only one person.

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And I, I, that's what I want to come

back to is that so much is made of the

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Fed chairperson because we've kind of

made them these mythical creatures,

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you know, starting a Greenspan,

who's called the Maestro, right?

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Uh, everyone subsequent to Volker

has been in this kind of world of.

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Really getting the, the consensus, right.

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He's a, the, the chairperson is

a consensus builder, and what

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you have inside the Fed today

is a lot of divisive opinion.

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Mm-hmm.

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I would say there's probably

more hawkish behavior than

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there's more dovish behavior.

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You know, you have your Miron on

one side and you know you're gonna

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have GULs be on the other side.

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You're always gonna

have this kind of pool.

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But the thing is, is that.

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Even warsh himself can't

flip the vote right now.

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And so to me, that's what I

think the market's gonna watch.

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And I think with this

announcement, you see it out there.

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The markets have been well-behaved.

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It's not a bad pick, it's just

we don't know what it'll be.

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And remember we got him for a long time

now Once, once he gets confirmed, right?

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Yeah.

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And so this isn't just a Trump thing, it's

the next administration, the next as well.

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So I, I think it's a good pick.

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I just don't know what to,

what to make of it, because.

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Of the uncertainty around, I know

know the one criterion for the job

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was you have to lower interest rates.

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Yeah.

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But it flies right in the face

of unwinding the balance sheet.

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Right.

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But you could also argue that maybe

you do both and then we have a

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neutralist policy because of it.

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But then why are you doing it?

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You know?

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I don't know.

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Mm-hmm.

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So, um, I, I, my, my, my, my

verdict is, is yet to be rendered.

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And I'll watch him, uh, on the job.

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Yeah, no, that's a great point, Jeffrey.

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And for, you know, it obviously made

headlines that week that it was announced,

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but I feel as if maybe it just hasn't been

talked a lot about, you know, there's a

264

lot else to talk about right now, but it,

it's maybe more should be considered in

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it or, yeah, I, I think what's the, the,

the worst, or, or the thing that gives

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me the most concern about it is the.

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What Kevin War said about wanting

to work more closely with treasury,

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and that reeks of a little bit of,

of softening the independence there.

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Right.

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And I understand you

have to work with them.

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They're issuing the treasury,

you gotta figure stuff out.

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You gotta get your liability management

exercise under, under control.

273

But are we gonna lower interest rates

because we're spending so much money?

274

Is that the Fed's job?

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Mm-hmm.

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It's really not.

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You know, the, the Fed's

job is to the, the, the dual

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mandate we just talked about.

279

So when I come back and look at

that, you know, we've been talking

280

about fed independence as at risk.

281

That's the one thing I don't think

that's been picked up enough on yet.

282

Um, and we'll see how it works.

283

We'll, we'll just, we'll totally

see how it works over time.

284

But, you know, it's, it's a

challenge because, look, we have

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$10 trillion of treasuries have

to be financed in the next year.

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Right.

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In the next year.

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That's what's rolling off of just

treasury, maturation schedule, and

289

it's gotta be financed somewhere.

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Yeah.

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Not to mention that if you

look at, you know, the CBO

292

estimates came out last week.

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It said the first five

months we spent $1.05

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trillion.

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That's our deficit for the

first five months of the year.

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And that has no war budget in it.

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Right.

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So I gotta think it's going up.

299

Right.

300

So we have a lot of challenges here too,

and the Fed has to contend with this

301

as well when they're thinking about it.

302

If we're spending this money and

we're providing so many treasuries,

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they also gotta find buyers.

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So.

305

If they want to unwind the balance

sheet, you need buyers, but we also

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just have this natural, we need an extra

trillion every five months right now.

307

So it, it's a, it's a

tough situation, Ryan.

308

I mean, when I, when I look at

it, and so look, I, I think the,

309

those that are at the Fed, they're

gonna do the best they can.

310

We give 'em a lot of crap because,

you know, it's, it's, our job is

311

to criticize everybody else, right?

312

Don't, don't criticize yourself,

criticize everybody else.

313

But I, I think that when it really

comes back down to it, I think

314

they're gonna do the right thing.

315

And, you know, I, I don't

think Kevin Walsh is being a, a

316

political pawn in this right now.

317

Um, but we'll see, you know, again, I,

I reserve judgment until we get a couple

318

meetings under our belt and we'll see how

he leads the Fed, assuming confirmation.

319

Yeah, no, that's great Jeffrey.

320

A lot of times when I talk to

my guests, I, I was like, I want

321

the conversation to be very raw.

322

A conversation like we're

sitting at a pub, having a beer

323

with the airplanes flying over.

324

Yeah.

325

It gives us that raw

feeling of conversation.

326

I love it.

327

Well, in fairness, we only have

water, so we need to bring the, uh,

328

uh, maybe we ask exchange next year.

329

Yeah.

330

For, for some cocktails out here.

331

Um, let's talk about yields real quickly.

332

Before the conf, before the

war started yield 10 year

333

treasury yields fell below four.

334

Wars started now they're, what are they?

335

Four, 400, almost four 30 basis points.

336

I think I lost checked.

337

Is that counterintuitive?

338

What does that signate To me, I think a

flight to safety yield should come down

339

during this war, but that's not the case.

340

I think it's the market is saying

that there's this, there's gonna be

341

short term inflationary pressure.

342

Um, and you, you still don't, we don't

know the length of this war either.

343

And, uh, I think that's the, the bigger

variable here is that do we have $90 oil

344

price, you know, for the next six months?

345

You know, obviously it's bouncing

around a lot right now, so

346

there is no stability there.

347

But that's essentially, that's

how the market corrects itself.

348

Um, the cure for high

prices is high prices.

349

You're trying to discourage demand right

at the end of the day and consumption.

350

I, I think what you're seeing in the, the

rates market over the short term has been

351

a repricing of the inflation premium.

352

That's what it comes down to.

353

Okay.

354

And you'll say, well,

it's only 20 basis points.

355

Yeah.

356

'cause it's, it's probably, we

get inflation, maybe we get an

357

extra one, one and a half percent

inflation this year because of it.

358

Again, no one really knows,

'cause we don't know where the

359

path of oil is going right now.

360

But, you know, so when you start to price

that through, it kind of makes some sense.

361

By the way, you know, you're referencing a

data point of saying right before the war.

362

We were at the very low end

of the range right then too.

363

So I, I think when you, when you

look back and you go back to, let's

364

just say September of last year,

the 10 year treasury's been in like

365

a 50 basis point range, and the

low end's been like three 80 ish.

366

The high end's like four 30.

367

That's where we've been.

368

And so where are you today?

369

You're kind of at the

higher end of the range.

370

So I don't think it's uncanny to see

rates go up a little bit because of this.

371

And then, you know, probably you're

talking about financing the war, right?

372

It's expensive.

373

So that's probably part of it too.

374

That means there's more interest,

there's more treasuries, and so

375

I think some of that's there.

376

So the flight to quality trade,

you've seen it, you've seen it go

377

into like Swiss Franc, you've seen a

little bit in Japanese yen, but you

378

haven't a lot because of the pain

that you've seen in Japan this year.

379

So I, I think the, the

traditional havens have worked.

380

Okay.

381

But the question is, are treasury

still a safe haven asset?

382

And I still say it depends.

383

Right.

384

And if, if we're just doing a, a, you

know, an un uh, I don't know, probably the

385

best way to say, if, if we're just gonna

go out and spend money and get nothing out

386

of it, then yield should be higher, right?

387

It's not a productive, societal,

productive kind of, um, kicker to GDP.

388

So anyway, I think that's what

the market's pricing and you've

389

definitely pulled a rate cut out of,

out of the market, uh, this year.

390

In fact, last week we got down

to where there was only, it was

391

under one cut for the year and.

392

It kind of feels right, and I, I

don't think that the Fed should

393

hike because there's inflation.

394

This is why they strip

out commodity prices.

395

But I do think that the, the threshold

for cutting got higher, right?

396

Mm-hmm.

397

And I think that's what

the market's realizing.

398

Don't forget, Ryan, we

talked about this a year ago.

399

The, the bond market's been a bully to the

Fed for the last three and a half years.

400

Since, since, since j Powell said we are

done hiking rates back in September of 22.

401

The bond markets try to price

cuts in every single day since

402

then, and it's been wrong.

403

So it's, it's materialized.

404

Like, Hey, we got three cuts last year.

405

We got 'em by the skin

of our teeth effectively.

406

Um, and I think that's where

we are this year as well.

407

I think you still have enough

positive momentum in the economy.

408

It doesn't make sense to be cutting rates.

409

And then we'll see how things

evolve as the year goes on.

410

And look, the war is a, is a really

negative draw on people right now.

411

Like it's, it hurts disposable income,

it's gonna hurt some of the growth story.

412

But, you know, um, we just, markets have

a way of pricing pricing what it has to

413

be, and we'll get, we'll get through it

all, but I think yields make sense here.

414

Um, and I think you'll, you'll

find buyers, if, if they went up

415

another 30, 50 basis points, I

think you'd find significant buyers.

416

Because I think we all look

through the inflation thing.

417

It's somewhat, dare I say the

word transitory, you know?

418

Um, but it may be transitory from

a, I think there's a drinking game

419

for that, for that, for transitory.

420

Yeah.

421

Yeah.

422

It's, it's not as fun with water, but.

423

The thing is, is that I, I do think that

we may be mired in these prices higher

424

than the market's pricing right now.

425

And why I say that is that

there's been a lot of disruption

426

in supply of oil right now.

427

This is not a, Hey, the conflict's

over tomorrow, everybody goes

428

back to business as usual.

429

There's a lot of infrastructural

damage and there's a lot that

430

has to, to recover through there.

431

So, and by the way, it's not over yet.

432

So that's, that's the thing.

433

And I think the market has become a

little complacent because a lot of

434

these things that Trump backs off.

435

But it just sure doesn't feel like

the US is backing off anytime soon.

436

Yeah.

437

No, that makes sense.

438

Jeffrey, going back to what

our conversation we had last

439

year, I did pay attention.

440

I've got notes here about what you

talked about last year, so I'm holding

441

you to, how long was I, what year?

442

How long was I about everything?

443

You, you were pretty spot on a year ago.

444

Okay.

445

Between what's happened in a year.

446

A year ago, you reduced risk.

447

In your portfolio credit risk.

448

Yep.

449

You took the reduced credit risk, you

went into more risk off, um, treasuries.

450

Yep.

451

Agency MBS, um, and it wasn't

because of geopolitical risk,

452

it was more credit spreads.

453

Weren't getting rewarded.

454

How do you feel about

credit spreads today?

455

Are you still bearish on credit?

456

So we were never bearish per se.

457

It was more of a, a, a thing of like, we

didn't like the riskier parts of credit.

458

And I still stay in that camp today,

and I think we've seen more of the

459

risks show up in the last six months.

460

Right.

461

You've seen this a lot in the loan market.

462

You've seen it kind of

in the private markets.

463

We're just at the tip of the

iceberg of this loan kind of issues.

464

'cause the pain's been in the loan

market for the last few years.

465

Mm-hmm.

466

'cause they had the, all the hikes

hit them, the, the, the fastest.

467

And so when I look back at it, we

ended up, you know, as yields got

468

lower in the year, we actually went

and put more credit risk on in the

469

summer and it turned out to be okay.

470

Um, and then we had this huge risk rally

in the last month or so of the year

471

that was mainly in corporate bonds.

472

And then the securitized markets were on

fire for the first six weeks of the year.

473

And so now we're back in that

position where a few weeks ago we're

474

like, yeah, it doesn't make sense

to be adding more credit risk here.

475

Um, but now given some of the little

noise we've seen here, it's starting

476

to look a little bit better, but let's

talk about invest rate corporate bonds.

477

Okay.

478

Off the lows, we're 15 basis points wider.

479

Should I be, how excited should

I be about 15 more basis points,

480

Ryan, on a seven year asset, right?

481

I mean, is that really gonna

change my outlook on things?

482

Probably not.

483

The high yield market off the

tights were probably 50 to 60.

484

Just depends on pricing

this morning, uh, wider.

485

That's not a lot either.

486

So the thing is, is that I and I, it feels

like there's much more headline risk.

487

Forget, forget the geopolitical.

488

It seems that there are

credit problems right now.

489

And are they gonna be okay?

490

Yes, they always are.

491

Um, but we're gonna

find out who's exposed.

492

And I think it's gonna take a lot longer

than we all think because we're all used

493

to analyzing public markets and saying.

494

Oh, well, once you've, we all know

it's, the market will punish you.

495

You can't punish the private trade.

496

Private will just be what it is.

497

So I, I think that this

thing stays over us longer.

498

Um, and we'll see how the workouts

work and at the end of the day, there

499

was a lot of money that went into it

and we'll see how the underwriting is.

500

Um, but when I look at the

market and I look at like bank

501

loans, they're weak right now.

502

They're bleeding into

the CLO market, right?

503

Um, it's hitting other things.

504

And so, um, these are the things

we're talking about, but they

505

last longer than you think.

506

They, they, they, the, the excesses

last longer and also so does the pain.

507

And I think that's what we're

all trying to digest right now.

508

And, but things have

been very well contained.

509

I mean, I just had an investment call

with the team, with all the sector heads

510

and, you know, certain markets are immune

right now, like the a BS market has.

511

You wouldn't even know there's a war

you wouldn't even know there's conflict.

512

So there's, there's just little

pockets out there and I think what

513

we're seeing in credit in general

is that there's still a bid for it.

514

And there is because a lot of the

under, a lot of the US companies

515

are in good shape and so that's

why credit spreads are tight.

516

So I reminded the team last year

that just because spreads are

517

tight doesn't mean they widen.

518

They can stay very tight

for a long period of time.

519

And history shows you this from like 2003.

520

To 2006, which was a very good time.

521

We were coming off the recession.

522

The IG market traded in like a 40

basis point spread band over that

523

three year period, and we got to some

of the lowest spreads on record, and

524

it takes a catalyst to do it and.

525

You know, you need a

disruption in credit to do it.

526

And that will come at some point when

some of the bad underwriting shows up.

527

It.

528

Jeffrey, that's a perfect segue 'cause

I was gonna ask, you know, we are

529

oil's over a hundred dollars, we've

got all this noise out there, all this

530

concern, but like you said, spreads,

if only widen by 15 basis points.

531

What do I dare ask?

532

Maybe I shouldn't ask this, but.

533

What's it gonna take for spreads to

get more attractive at this point?

534

You, you kind of mentioned it, but

it's like, we have all this noise yet.

535

Yeah, but it's, it's noise

as you said, like oil prices.

536

Are they gonna stay here for five years?

537

I don't know.

538

Right.

539

We don't know what it looks like.

540

And so I think, you know, the, the

first thing is to, to shake it off and

541

slough it off and say it's not a big

deal, but ultimately it's how long it

542

lingers around and goes into the input.

543

It's just like tariffs, right?

544

Tariffs were a debacle after

we got liberated, right?

545

And it's like, oh, we

have to dial it back.

546

Well, then it's like, okay, now we have

some, it's, you gotta find that balance.

547

And so it's just re-underwriting

is what it comes down to.

548

So the question is, is how

do you price oil today?

549

Like, how do you put that into

your model of your inputs?

550

And by the way, oil is the most

important commodity in the world.

551

It just still is.

552

You know, I, I know people would argue

semiconductors and chips pretty close.

553

I would agree with that.

554

But oil is still very important.

555

We all use it every day.

556

So.

557

I think that what you're seeing

there is that, is it temporary

558

or is it gonna be a longer, you

know, kind of structural problem.

559

And I, I don't know, I think

the market is being a little too

560

aggressive and assuming it's all

gonna go away and go back to normal.

561

But then again, that's our job as bond

investors is to worry about things.

562

Yeah.

563

So do you think then credit spreads are.

564

C, you know, reflect it at the

right level right now you think?

565

I, I do.

566

I do, I do.

567

Because I think that it,

you go back to fundamentals.

568

And so, you know, if you're talking

about credit that you know doesn't have

569

a lot of oil or energy input into the

business model, then why, why should it,

570

uh, have, have any reflection on that?

571

It comes down to leverage, it comes

down to interest coverage, it comes

572

down to all the metrics we'll look at.

573

To say, can you pay your bills back?

574

And so, you know, again, one part that's

been hot shocking is the energy names,

575

you know, in the high yield space.

576

Right.

577

Uh, they've done very well

recently because they're gonna,

578

they're gonna make their payments.

579

Right.

580

So I, I think it's, it's trying

to say how long does this go?

581

And, uh, obviously none of us know,

but the conflicts in the Middle

582

East tend to last a lot longer than

ever forecasted by our politicians.

583

Yeah, exactly.

584

It's been more than a week.

585

Yeah, it's been, yeah, it has.

586

I think this is the third week

now, you know, and it sure doesn't

587

look like it's any, uh, any less,

uh, less, uh, toxic than it was.

588

Exactly.

589

Let's, uh, talk a little

bit about duration.

590

There's kind of that, what do you

do at this point with duration?

591

Do you lock in some of these yields

that are, could be attractive at

592

this level, or do you go shorter?

593

Yeah.

594

Because of the uncertainty out there?

595

Well, I mean, I think that when you think

about locking in yields, the question

596

is, okay, what's the Fed gonna do?

597

So if the Fed cuts rates this

year, let's say a couple times,

598

does the backend follow it?

599

Sure hasn't thus far.

600

Right?

601

So that's a different story.

602

But if you're talking about locking

in, you think there's a couple cuts?

603

Maybe owning something on the

two year part of the curve

604

ma does make a lot of sense.

605

Right?

606

So in our shorter duration products,

we actually have lengthened our

607

duration a little bit because we

had rolled down, you know, that's

608

the one thing about a bond investor.

609

Every day your portfolio gets

shorter, you know, just by that

610

you have to reinvest some things.

611

And so what we had was, um, you know,

we, we rolled some of our exposure out.

612

Uh, on our t-bills and things,

trying to move out the curve a little

613

bit, but we still own floaters.

614

I still, you know, in the low duration

product, you know, have roughly

615

20, 22% floating rate debt still.

616

Why?

617

It's kind of because the bond market's

been wrong on that and I'm not,

618

we're not forecasting that side.

619

And if I have good credit

that floats, it's fine.

620

So I understand why investors are skittish

of duration and, um, there's a phrase

621

we like to use that in general that

we say investors fight the last war.

622

I'm not talking about the one ongoing

right now, but we're still fighting the

623

inflation war and I think that that has

burned a lot of people and it's still

624

seared into their memories and they're

skittish on duration for that reason.

625

And what I tell people is if you

think cash rates are coming down,

626

you probably should be moving

out the curve a little bit.

627

And so from our standpoint, we like

front end paper, like we like stuff in

628

the one to two year parts of the curve.

629

There's different parts of the

market you can buy there and you can

630

do a hundred, 125 over cash today.

631

So that's pretty attractive.

632

Mm-hmm.

633

Um, and, but if you start to buy

duration and you move into the

634

belly of the curve, now you're

only picking up maybe 150 to cash.

635

But there is the potential, if things slow

down, if this causes some slowdown, I do

636

think yields come down across the curve.

637

So I like a mix of it.

638

But in general, general, um, I,

I, I really don't mind owning

639

intermediate duration risk.

640

But we hate the 30 year treasury.

641

We hate the backend of the curve,

and I hate the backend of the curve.

642

In every market, the developed

world, backend rates have been on

643

a tear upward, and almost every

single developed world country

644

trades near the high of those ranges.

645

This is not just a US phenomenon.

646

This is something that permeates the

entire developed world because we

647

all have these same fiscal problems.

648

So when it comes to duration, I don't

think you should load the boat up with it.

649

Mm-hmm.

650

I think you ought to be careful here.

651

And look, I like the five

year part of the curve.

652

Just to me, that's the economy.

653

And if things slow down that part rallies.

654

Um, but you don't get huge

pickup, continue to go out.

655

'cause the curve isn't that steep.

656

You know, where it's steep is two is

the thirties and it, I think it's steep

657

for a reason, is that a lot of us are

skittish on that back and the curve.

658

Yeah.

659

That's fantastic.

660

So you diversify a little

bit across the curve then?

661

Yeah.

662

Yeah.

663

I mean, I, I like owning

credit on the front end.

664

I like owning rates in the belly.

665

Right.

666

And own a little bit more like in the

10 year and a little bit out, just to

667

kind of balance out some duration there.

668

But I think owning shorter duration credit

today is very interesting because I don't

669

have to deal with, you know, tariff and

certain, I, there's, I I, it's easier to

670

calculate on a shorter path than saying,

are you gonna survive for 10 years?

671

Mm-hmm.

672

Right.

673

But there's a reason that credit

spreads are tight is because

674

the underwriting has been good.

675

And don't forget, these companies have de

levered just based on their stock prices.

676

Right now that can reverse and that can,

you know, lever you up a little bit.

677

But the quality of the, of the overall

market is higher than it's been, but

678

there's just a lot of debt out there.

679

Yeah, no, fantastic.

680

So one of the best performing fixed income

asset classes over the past year has been.

681

Agency mortgage backs fantastic year.

682

Do you think there's more

room to run mortgage rates?

683

They've come down some, does that concern

you about maybe some prepayment risk

684

there or are they still attractive?

685

Yeah, they're still attractive.

686

Um, but they're not like they were, so

mortgages really suffered in 22 and 23

687

because they were over owned by the banks,

you know, so remember the way the banking

688

system works, when we got those stimulus

checks and it went to the banking system.

689

It sits there, they have to invest

and they bought a lot of mortgages.

690

So mortgage spreads got extremely

tight in like the summer, let's call

691

it, of 21, um, all the way through 22.

692

And then we got this big reversal.

693

And so they were mired

out there for a while.

694

It, it took really the second

half of the year for agency

695

mortgages to really come down.

696

And a lot of that was rate

volatility coming down.

697

So, 'cause you have, you're short

an option, blah, blah, blah.

698

No one cares about all this stuff.

699

But the thing is, is that you do have

prepayment risk on buying that trade.

700

That trade today probably yields

one 20 over comparable treasury.

701

So I'm not using a spread, I'm

just giving you duration match.

702

Um, but you can, you can

actually manage that risk.

703

Ryan, there's when to do it,

and there's these things called

704

seasoned coupon mortgages.

705

These are these old archaic

706

They have two and a half, three

coupons, three and a half coupons.

707

So with that, they don't

have prepayment risk.

708

Now you can say, well,

what if someone refis it?

709

Well, great, those bonds traded

like 85 cents in the dollar.

710

I like things that I buy at 85 that

pay me a hundred really quickly.

711

So there's a way of managing

that risk through it.

712

Now it doesn't have as much yield on

that for good reason 'cause you don't

713

have that, that negative convexity.

714

But at the end of it, I think

that managing that together

715

is a very interesting way.

716

And by the way, you can put that

portfolio together and you have a

717

higher yield than IG corporates.

718

Now it doesn't mean I hate IG corporates

'cause I think IG corporates, they, they

719

behave well in the same environment.

720

And they don't have that prepayment side.

721

Mm-hmm.

722

So I think there's ways of managing

the two together that are, are

723

ways of dialing your risk down.

724

Um, but look, you know, mortgages got

very tight on that GSC announcement

725

that President Trump did, and it

lasted like two days and we gave it

726

all back because everybody's like,

yeah, there's really nothing there.

727

Right.

728

Um, so I think a bigger concern still

that overhangs the agency market is

729

what happens with Fannie and Freddie.

730

Are they gonna, you know, make 'em public?

731

Is it gonna be some quasi

public private thing?

732

And I say, who knows still also why I, I

I always ask, why, why would you do this?

733

And it doesn't make sense.

734

'cause I think that actually could

potentially increase borrowing costs.

735

That doesn't sound like someone trying

to solve an affordability crisis.

736

Yeah, right.

737

Exactly.

738

So anyway, I, I do think that's a

attractive part of the market that's

739

not owned enough across folks as well.

740

And I think, um, there's just ways

of executing those trades I think

741

are, are, are very interesting today.

742

That you can mitigate a lot of that risk.

743

I feel as, I'm glad you brought

up Freddy and Fran Fannie.

744

Um, it feels as if that's been an

issue and a talking point for years.

745

What to do with them?

746

Well, I, well I think it comes back

to why did we let 'em be what they

747

were in the early two thousands.

748

Um, um, I worked for a guy that

used to call 'em the biggest

749

hedge funds in the world.

750

They get to borrow at agency rates and

they lever up a mortgage portfolio and

751

they, they don't know how to manage the

convexity and they'd screw it all up

752

and they'd still make profits, you know.

753

But, um.

754

Trump has been on this from

his first, first campaign or

755

for his first administration.

756

He, he, he thinks that

they should be public.

757

Um, you know, and so I, I don't know.

758

Or, or I guess they should be private.

759

They should be, they should

trade in the public markets.

760

What I was thinking, um, but I don't

understand why, and the criticism

761

is that, oh, why, you know, like

Fed bo these mortgages, they juiced

762

house prices, all that stuff.

763

Well, they did that in oh

eight because there was no bid.

764

And by the way, housing still fell 50

to 60% depending on your region, right?

765

So, um, the Fed buying mortgages

didn't distort the mortgage market.

766

Um, they were just, what happened

when the Fed first did it?

767

When Bernanke did it, he didn't

wanna be Japan and own too

768

much of the treasury market.

769

Now, I think if you ask the Fed Governors,

you even ask Wars, they would rather

770

own treasuries than mortgages because

they had at least controls the interest.

771

So don't forget this, Ron.

772

I'd like to remind people of this

because I think it gets lost a lot.

773

Every single treasury that sits

on the Fed's balance sheet,

774

because Fed rebates, treasury.

775

Those are financed at zero.

776

You know what's not financed at zero?

777

The mortgage is 'cause the

mortgage is in the pool.

778

They're just, they're just

putting that back into the

779

income of the treasury account.

780

So there is something special about owning

your own treasuries, is that because of

781

the mechanism there is financed at zero.

782

So coming back to Fannie and Freddie

though, is that if we're gonna

783

increase borrow cost to homeowners,

how is that a helpful thing?

784

Now you can say that they should

have never been in the market.

785

We've done it for 50 years roughly.

786

Right.

787

And so we'll have to

see what, what happens.

788

And it sounds like they may just

sell a piece of it, but that's

789

what, what Fannie and Freddie

were back in the two thousands.

790

They were quasi-public and private.

791

And so what is your objective?

792

Is it to generate return for shareholders?

793

That doesn't sound like

you're helping affordability.

794

It sounds like you're maximizing

profit, but I, I don't know.

795

It's, it's the answer.

796

And if you do anything to

increase the cost of borrowing.

797

Uh, that doesn't sound very popular to

me in, in, in the US populace today.

798

Yeah.

799

No, that's fantastic.

800

It's always, it seems like it's always

been a question for, for a long time.

801

Well, it's, it's easy target, right, too.

802

Yeah.

803

'cause it feels like

it's being manipulated.

804

There's something happening there.

805

But remember for from 2007 till like 20

11, 20 12, that was the only game in town.

806

There was no private

lending and mortgages.

807

The only way it was happening is that

if it was Fannie Freddie eligible.

808

To be able to put in those

conforming pools to do it.

809

And so that market had to reopen in like,

I think it was like 20 12, 20 13, we

810

started seeing non agencies come back.

811

Mm-hmm.

812

And restructure of this stuff.

813

So, you know, if you want to know where it

should trade, go to the non-agency market.

814

That means you're gonna slap on,

depending on the capital structure,

815

2020 to like 70 basis points, you know?

816

So, and by the way, another thing.

817

We already have the mechanism

to bail out the taxpayer.

818

On Friday and Friday, we created these,

these securities called credit risk

819

transfers back in the, in the mid-teens.

820

Uh, and the reason for that was that

the taxpayers shouldn't be on the hook.

821

By the way, those things

are extremely well bid.

822

They trade very well.

823

And there's will investors willing

to go out there and support that.

824

And these are like, they're not

technically first loss pieces.

825

They're second loss,

but they're very thin.

826

And so we already have the mechanism

to protect the to the taxpayer.

827

And it's already, so that's what

I don't understand, like mm-hmm.

828

I come back to why.

829

But if I sat around and thought

about this administration and why I

830

would just lose brain cells, right?

831

I, I, I can't ever figure it out.

832

Yeah.

833

Jeffrey, a lot of people ask me, why,

why, Ryan, why, why are you doing that?

834

Yeah.

835

I feel like a 2-year-old, right.

836

Why?

837

Right.

838

I'm going through my why

stage of life right now.

839

But I, I think that coming back

to it, it's that I, I think that

840

the administration thinks it's

better off, and I, I don't think

841

they're doing it with mal intent.

842

Um, but you know, it has knock

on effects and, uh, I just, I

843

can't see the societal benefit.

844

At this point because we have that

mechanism to protect the taxpayer

845

already and the market trades well.

846

Yeah.

847

Real quickly, Jeffrey, too, emerging

markets, whether it's equities or fixed

848

income debt, they've had a fantastic year

outperformed regardless of asset class.

849

This might be more of a question

for the US dollar, but do you

850

think that's another, is still

attractive there, moving forward?

851

Or do you think it's gonna run its course?

852

Some definitely.

853

I think it's definitely attractive

and, uh, we, we've been buyers of it.

854

We started buying it, you know, kind

of early in the summer last year, so

855

we were a little late to the trade.

856

I'll, we'll admit it.

857

Um, but it's something that we continue

to add and I think with this turmoil

858

right now that's going on, it's, it's a,

it's becoming a little more interesting.

859

And here's the difference is

that yes, it's a dollar trade.

860

At the end of the day, you're buying

this to bet against the dollar,

861

but to me, it's the best way of

betting against the dollar right now.

862

And so coming into before this, let's

call war, um, you had every tailwind,

863

you had higher yields, you had kind

of better fiscal positions, you had

864

commodity producers, whether it's

copper, nickel, you had the gold miner.

865

I mean, there was every, every confluence

of things was in a positive manner.

866

Um, and now you kinda

hit a little speed bump.

867

But I think that the difference here

is I, if I bet against, let's say the

868

Euro or I bet against the yen or the

pound, I have an issue because our

869

rates are too high relative to their, so

it's hard for me to see why the dollar

870

should go down against them until we

get more yield convergence, meaning that

871

there, there's either come up or, or

it's come down, we meet in the middle.

872

So to me, the reason the emerging

market trade is a better way, one

873

is I think that there's much more

room to run in the dollar there.

874

But while I wait, I get

more, I get more yield.

875

So where if I build a developed world

portfolio, I'm giving up a hundred

876

to 150 basis points to US rates.

877

I'm picking up 200 or two

50 relative to treasury.

878

So I get paid for the trade.

879

Now I know I get more

volatility though, right?

880

But, uh, I do think that this is a, a

secular trend that one wants to play on.

881

And if we're gonna continue

to print, you know, a trillion

882

dollars every five months.

883

Um, I think the, the direction

of the dollar is still down.

884

Yeah, no, that's fantastic.

885

And a lot of people are probably

underexposed there to emerging markets.

886

They left a lot of, you know,

diversification's a big theme.

887

Well, it didn't work for,

it didn't work for a decade.

888

And that, that's, that's the issue.

889

Right.

890

And so, you know, once you,

once you get in, you say,

891

that's never gonna work again.

892

What that means is it's

about to work instantly.

893

Yeah.

894

Right.

895

Whenever you hear never, it means

it's gonna happen instantaneously.

896

And that's where we all

were with US equities.

897

Right.

898

And so even though, yeah, last

year was a good year in equities,

899

it was better if you were anywhere

else in the world practically.

900

Yeah.

901

Yeah.

902

Fantastic.

903

Jeffrey, one last thing.

904

We've talked a lot about

a lot of different topics.

905

What's it all mean?

906

Why?

907

What's it all mean for financial advisors

trying to build a diversified portfolio

908

with, you know, fixed income now that.

909

Divers or diversification

is back in vogue.

910

Yeah.

911

I mean, you, you have the ability

to offset risk in portfolios that

912

that's what it comes down to.

913

So I think that, you know, for

advisors, it's like, don't get

914

caught up in the headlines.

915

That's what always tell folks.

916

Like if you're, if you're a better

war general than ours, then go do it.

917

You know?

918

Um, but in general, you, you

can't get caught up in headlines.

919

You have to figure out what fundamentals

are, what are driving things.

920

And you know, look, we go through

different political regimes.

921

We go through different macro regimes and.

922

Right now the setup is, is a way where

you can still get income on this side.

923

Um, bond portfolios do outstrip

inflation in my viewpoint right now.

924

Um, and you know, you still have a

labor market that's holding up well

925

enough to support the consumer.

926

So all those things say that rates

should be somewhat range bound.

927

Probably.

928

You're gonna get some wiggles and

jiggles here, but at the end of it,

929

you gotta think about what you want.

930

And what I think about is one of the

bigger risk out there, and I don't

931

think it would be, it would shock you.

932

But it's the AI tech trade, and

you know what, a lot of that

933

doesn't exist in the bond world.

934

And so we can get things that, you know,

if you're talking about mortgages, you're

935

talking about, you know, commercial real

estate, you're talking about different

936

things, emerging markets, they're

not really exposed to these risks.

937

Like, yeah, the tail will wag the dog

at some point, but I think that, you

938

know, trying to double down on risk in

every asset class, that's the danger.

939

And so what we try to do with our credit

books is we try to say, okay, if we like

940

energy, do we want to own that in em?

941

Do we own that in the us?

942

Do we want to IG produce?

943

Do we want a high yield pro?

944

Where's the best value there?

945

And so I think that's what people need

to think about on the diversification

946

too, is that, you know, look,

bonds will work again unless we

947

have a high inflation environment.

948

And you know, people will say, well,

949

Bonds are dead forever.

950

They had to ReRack and reprice.

951

That's what they did.

952

And there's been periods of this

in the mid nineties where you had

953

this, when inflation's a problem that

everybody's gonna point to the seventies.

954

But in the mid nineties we had

inflation was running in the four or

955

5% range and bonds didn't do well.

956

So that's, you need real yields

is what it comes back down to.

957

And you have that today.

958

And even if you have this oil price spike,

I don't think that it keeps this pressure

959

on inflation for the next 12 months.

960

I think it's gonna be short term.

961

And the cure for high price is high price.

962

So bring it all back together.

963

You probably don't own enough gold.

964

You didn't own enough today, but you

know, it doesn't feel like the best time.

965

But I if you're, if you don't, if you

don't love the dollar either, I still

966

think gold is a very good bet there too.

967

And so I think that's another

piece of portfolios that

968

people need to think through.

969

And especially as the world kind of um,

central banks around the world really

970

start to restock those positions.

971

That's been the bid.

972

This has not been a retail

or wealth management bid.

973

This has been an institutional bid

and I think that, you know, by the

974

time this administration's over,

you may see gold double again.

975

Wow.

976

Well, just because of the

path of the dollar as well.

977

Yeah.

978

And just, there may be some, I don't

want to be wedded to dollars over the

979

next decade or two, and that, that,

that takes a long time to, to play out.

980

But it sure feels like that's

been playing out in the last,

981

you know, 15 to 16 months.

982

I'm glad you threw that nugget

in about gold, gold nuggets.

983

Yeah.

984

See what I did there?

985

Yeah.

986

You, you were looking for that hotel.

987

Is the cold nugget still exists?

988

I think it does.

989

It's in downtown Right know.

990

And interesting enough, uh,

Tahoe, it was a hard rock.

991

Yep.

992

And then the gold golden nugget took

it over then the past few months.

993

Yeah.

994

My, uh, my parents like to go down

there and eat too at, at the Hard Rock.

995

I, I always kinda enjoyed that place too.

996

Yeah.

997

I think it's changed names about, yeah.

998

Half dozen times in a couple years.

999

I mean, yeah, those

casinos flip over a lot.

00:42:13,544 --> 00:42:13,814

Oh yeah.

00:42:13,819 --> 00:42:14,115

They, the names.

00:42:14,294 --> 00:42:17,924

So I wish they'd flip over on

the inside and re and remodel

00:42:17,924 --> 00:42:18,975

and clean 'em up a little bit.

00:42:19,035 --> 00:42:19,274

Yeah.

00:42:19,274 --> 00:42:22,450

The, but the Caesars one did, I think

when they changed names and, uh, yeah.

00:42:22,544 --> 00:42:22,754

Yeah.

00:42:22,754 --> 00:42:24,089

But no, it's, it's always, yeah.

00:42:24,134 --> 00:42:24,285

Yeah.

00:42:24,285 --> 00:42:26,174

Tahoe, Tahoe does need some CapEx.

00:42:26,444 --> 00:42:26,685

Yeah.

00:42:26,685 --> 00:42:27,495

They really do.

00:42:27,495 --> 00:42:30,615

They, the, the street,

they need a lot of work.

00:42:30,734 --> 00:42:30,794

Yeah.

00:42:31,649 --> 00:42:33,419

But we'll, we'll take it.

00:42:33,660 --> 00:42:34,620

Yeah, we'll take it.

00:42:34,950 --> 00:42:37,919

Speaking of Tahoe, we, we need to

get you up there that maybe we can

00:42:37,919 --> 00:42:41,790

do the, uh, podcast literally on

the shores, Zephyr Cove, right?

00:42:41,850 --> 00:42:42,149

Yeah.

00:42:42,154 --> 00:42:42,245

Yeah.

00:42:42,870 --> 00:42:43,680

So we were founded.

00:42:43,740 --> 00:42:44,069

I know.

00:42:44,069 --> 00:42:45,000

It's a great launching boat.

00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:46,529

That's a good boat launch deck too.

00:42:46,529 --> 00:42:47,460

Yes, it is.

00:42:47,910 --> 00:42:50,850

Maybe we'll do it, maybe we'll do as

we'll do it from a pontoon boat out there.

00:42:50,879 --> 00:42:51,480

Oh yeah.

00:42:51,484 --> 00:42:51,805

That'd be really cool.

00:42:51,805 --> 00:42:52,109

There we go.

00:42:52,410 --> 00:42:57,419

You know, I often talk, it's like I love

doing the podcast because it typically,

00:42:57,419 --> 00:42:59,430

my conversations are with ski bumps.

00:42:59,790 --> 00:43:01,200

And nothing wrong with ski bumps.

00:43:01,229 --> 00:43:01,290

Yeah.

00:43:01,500 --> 00:43:05,580

But it's nice to have conversations that,

that people are passionate about investing

00:43:05,669 --> 00:43:07,379

and, uh, so I love doing the podcast.

00:43:07,379 --> 00:43:11,939

I feel as if we need to have exchange,

maybe move the conference up there.

00:43:12,240 --> 00:43:12,540

Yeah.

00:43:12,540 --> 00:43:16,799

I mean, um, there's not a big, uh, the

Venn diagram intersection isn't big

00:43:16,799 --> 00:43:18,899

between ski bums and investment folks.

00:43:19,169 --> 00:43:22,620

But I do know one, uh, MEB Faber, I was

just, I was gonna say me Meb is probably

00:43:22,620 --> 00:43:24,000

the quintessential example there, right.

00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,570

You know, I almost reached

out to MEB a couple weeks ago.

00:43:27,570 --> 00:43:30,150

Hey, Sherman's gonna be on the podcast.

00:43:30,150 --> 00:43:31,020

We're doing it live.

00:43:31,020 --> 00:43:32,820

Maybe we get MEV on here too.

00:43:32,820 --> 00:43:34,830

And I, I, I love Meb.

00:43:34,860 --> 00:43:35,490

I think he's great.

00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:36,030

I think he's great.

00:43:36,035 --> 00:43:36,085

Yeah.

00:43:36,090 --> 00:43:36,210

Yeah.

00:43:36,210 --> 00:43:39,570

He's always, he's always thinking

about, uh, he, he's definitely thinking

00:43:39,570 --> 00:43:40,800

about different stuff out there.

00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:44,220

And I think he's one of, I think the,

the finance world's better for having

00:43:44,370 --> 00:43:45,840

thought, thought leaders like him as well.

00:43:46,290 --> 00:43:47,590

Yeah, you're exactly it.

00:43:47,670 --> 00:43:49,980

It kind of, sometimes they

think it's outside the box.

00:43:49,980 --> 00:43:50,190

Yeah.

00:43:50,190 --> 00:43:53,610

I may get a lot of fanboy emails on that,

that I'm, I'm, I'm a, I'm a me fanboy.

00:43:53,610 --> 00:43:53,880

So.

00:43:54,690 --> 00:43:55,890

Awesome, Jeffrey.

00:43:55,950 --> 00:43:57,240

Great conversation.

00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:57,510

Alright.

00:43:57,510 --> 00:43:59,310

Thank you so much for coming out again.

00:43:59,370 --> 00:44:00,870

Always really enjoy it.

00:44:01,050 --> 00:44:02,130

Uh, all the insight.

00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,500

I learn a ton in our conversations.

00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,320

Where can our audience get more

information about Double Line?

00:44:07,620 --> 00:44:08,100

Uh, it's easy.

00:44:08,100 --> 00:44:09,030

Double line.com.

00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,670

Um, it's the easiest way to

do it, but also, uh, we have

00:44:11,670 --> 00:44:12,570

a lot of YouTube channels.

00:44:12,570 --> 00:44:14,820

We put out a lot of our macro

research and stuff out there.

00:44:15,315 --> 00:44:18,435

Uh, so YouTube, do youtube.com/double

00:44:18,435 --> 00:44:21,075

line capital, you know, so someone

already got the double line.

00:44:21,075 --> 00:44:22,665

We had to add the capital

in there to get that.

00:44:23,234 --> 00:44:26,475

I'm really impressed, Jeffrey,

because obviously we've

00:44:26,475 --> 00:44:27,944

posted podcasts on YouTube.

00:44:27,944 --> 00:44:33,375

I couldn't tell you what my YouTube,

maybe I shouldn't, I need to do that.

00:44:33,375 --> 00:44:35,265

You, you know what, it's, 'cause

I had a podcast with Sunday.

00:44:35,265 --> 00:44:36,585

They beat me over the head with it.

00:44:36,585 --> 00:44:39,705

That you're supposed to announce

this, you gotta announce the date.

00:44:39,705 --> 00:44:40,845

I'm like, this is too complicated.

00:44:40,845 --> 00:44:41,384

I can't do it.

00:44:41,415 --> 00:44:43,065

So anyway, it's, it's

ingrained in my memory.

00:44:43,380 --> 00:44:47,070

Well, you guys, the pie, the

content you guys produce.

00:44:47,070 --> 00:44:48,570

I know it's hard to believe to some.

00:44:48,570 --> 00:44:52,620

I do do a little bit of research

before, uh, having these conversations

00:44:52,620 --> 00:44:54,360

and I go the double line a lot.

00:44:54,540 --> 00:44:55,470

All right, well, appreciate it.

00:44:55,500 --> 00:44:56,280

Well, thanks everybody.

00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:57,960

Thanks for listening and

thanks for having me back on.

00:44:57,960 --> 00:44:58,260

Yes.

00:44:58,260 --> 00:44:59,070

Thank you, Jeffrey.

00:44:59,070 --> 00:45:01,230

Thank you everyone for

listening to this episode.

00:45:01,230 --> 00:45:03,420

Is Zephyr just for Risk podcast.

00:45:03,420 --> 00:45:06,555

You can watch all of our other

episodes on the Zephyr YouTube channel.

00:45:07,410 --> 00:45:11,340

And, uh, Spotify and please be sure

to like, subscribe to those channels

00:45:11,340 --> 00:45:12,750

and give us a follow on LinkedIn.

00:45:13,050 --> 00:45:15,145

Thank you very much and have

a good rest of your week.

00:45:25,590 --> 00:45:26,010

Let's get started.

00:45:54,540 --> 00:45:55,170

Let's go.