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Get Ready for Turbulent Times In Real Estate with Liberty Lockdown's Clint Russell
Episode 405Bonus Episode4th October 2022 • Real Estate Investing with the REI Mastermind Network • REI Mastermind Network | Real Estate Investing
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Clint Russell is a former Private Money Mortgage Broker for 15 years where he did hundreds of millions of dollars in loans. He is currently involved in a new construction project and understands the real estate market intimately.

Clint has also liquidated hundreds of millions of dollars worth of foreclosures in the 2008 and 2009 crisis. In a nutshell he knows the good, the bad, the ugly, all of it. In his opinion that in this escalating interest rate cycle via the Federal Reserve, we are due for some serious pain.

We chat about:

  • The likely real estate bear market.
  • How to protect yourself.
  • How to take advantage, when the time is right.

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"You can invest 10,000 hours and become an expert or learn from those who have already made that investment." - Jack

Transcripts

::

It's time for a bonus episode, and this one is going to be quite out of the ordinary as I have a special guest with me here today, Clint Russell with Liberty Lock down.

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And we're going to be talking about some politics and some economics, more importantly where the economy is headed and the outlook.

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In his opinion is fairly bleak, so be forewarned as we dive in.

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Welcome to the REI Mastermind network, where host Jack has gathers amazing stories from leaders in real estate investing.

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In each episode, our guests will tell you what they're doing that works, what they've tried, that failed, and best of all, you'll learn actionable steps to take your real estate investing.

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To the next level.

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Now here's Jack with another value packed episode.

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I am honored to have Clint Russell, and he has a podcast called Liberty Lockdown.

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And I've been listening to your show for quite a while, Clinton.

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Like I mentioned, I have a lot of real estate investing gurus that come on my show, paint the outlook in our economy pretty rosy.

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And I know with your experience I know you and your dad.

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I have done a lot of real estate investing.

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I just really wanted.

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Hundreds of 1,000,000, yeah.

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I wanted some bare bones.

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Let's state what's actually going on regarding the economy, and this is the first time I think a lot of people are going to really realize that I slant heavily towards the libertarian side of things.

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You even mentioned on one of your episodes that we have kind of a.

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Superpower and the fact that we understand at.

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A deeper level.

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What's going on?

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And we can.

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Maybe even.

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Take advantage of the situation in in certain regards, so.

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Yeah, Clint, I'm just kind of giving you the floor regarding this.

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Maybe we even have to go down some Austrian economics for some people.

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But I just evaluate your time here today.

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Yeah, well, thank you for having me.

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Yeah, like you said, the show is liberty locked down, so if anybody wants to check it out, feel free.

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I'm on all.

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The normal platforms I started it 2.

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And 1/2.

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Years ago, and right in the beginning of COVID.

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Prior to that.

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I was a private money mortgage broker for 15 years.

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Give or take.

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I know.

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I know of which I speak.

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I understand the real estate market intimately.

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The entrepreneurial aspect of that was about a decade so.

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worth of foreclosures in the:

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So, I know the good, the bad, the ugly, all of it.

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And I am of the opinion that in this escalating interest rate cycle via the Federal Reserve, we are.

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ould have had serious pain in:

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I obviously because of the inflationary pressures that we're experiencing, the Federal Reserve is now feeling driven to hike interest rates, reverse their quantitative easing into a quantitative tightening program.

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And as such, if they maintain that course, I think we will have a terrible recession that will strike.

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maybe not as severely as the:

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Short term, extraordinarily bearish on real estate.

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Long term because of the inflationary pressures, because I believe the Federal Reserve will do what the ECB did to on Monday, where they reversed course because they realized that there was systemic risk at risk and the contagion effects from their plans to hike interest rates that were already.

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Putting Deutsche Bank and a handful of other, you know, major money managers, tycoons on the ropes in their in their neck of the woods.

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For those that aren't aware, our globalized economy is now extraordinarily interconnected.

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If you see.

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The banks in Europe that are on the precipice, that means, via the derivatives contracts, that American banks are under threat as well.

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And the Federal Reserve has not reversed course as of yet, but my expectation is that they will.

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But we see it all, all the time, right?

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We have naturally let the Fed just go.

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Rampant when it comes to, they always overcorrect, whether it's under correct or over correct, and we're the ones dealing with this rubber band in the middle.

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Yep, yeah, that's why.

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That's why I exited the game, to be blunt.

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I mean, first off, I couldn't evaluate macro risks because of the lockdown set, which were.

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The most UN American unconstitutional evil things I've ever imagined to have occurred in my lifetime.

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I'm sure some of your audience won't agree with that, but I stand by it.

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It didn't prevent or stop the pandemic.

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It hardly slowed it at all, and we are now suffering terrible economic consequences because of it.

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Not to mention all of the drug addiction, overdoses, suicides.

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Children that are.

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Destroyed because of it.

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Not to mention those that aren't destroyed, but simply have, you know, been held back for a couple years in terms of their education.

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trillion in:

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In good conscience, continue doing what I was doing, so I stopped.

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It was a.

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A hard decision, but in hindsight it was the proper one because as a private money mortgage broker I had two to three-year loan durations.

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So almost my entire book has rolled off at this point, which makes me feel great because now I know that if my investors capital is at risk, it's not going to be under my name, it's going to be under some other broker who continued to.

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You know, disperse their capital into a very perilous marketplace.

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So that's kind of my synopsis on everything.

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I hate to be the bearer of bad news.

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I hope that I'm wrong.

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ally, you know, predicting in:

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or:

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It was probably a year early again, my track record is pretty good, unfortunately.

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Yeah, you just said you're finished building 6 houses.

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What does the outlook look like for you there?

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I think I saw whether it was on Twitter or maybe even on your podcast, you even said you did you sell the last one or you got?

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Paperwork on that one.

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I have signed in five of six.

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Or under contract, but until they're done and and closed, that doesn't mean much, you know?

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So, I I'm still in danger in that project for sure, but I think that I'll be OK.

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It's we're already in the framing stage of the five, one of them is already completed and we'll close next week.

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So, I should exit in an OK condition the material costs because of lockdowns and the inflation that we experienced over the past two years increased my input costs tremendously.

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So, it absorbed basically all of the profit that I was expecting to make from the project.

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The prices, the exit price, you know, the sale price of all of them has also gone up.

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But not quite as much as I had.

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Hoped so it's.

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ou know, January, February of:

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OK, so what are your recommendations then?

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What should people be aware of?

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What would you recommend people do now that are still deep into real estate?

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I mean a lot of a.

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Lot of people see this as.

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Their exit strategy when it comes to retirement, frankly.

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Yeah, well, I think if you.

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Have a long enough time horizon.

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You'll probably be OK.

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The majority of my listeners are not professional.

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Estate investors they are.

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You know, single family type folks that if they're lucky enough to own one property and a rental property, they're crushing it.

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So those folks.

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Are the ones that I, I'm usually speaking to a professional investor.

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I hope you're already Privy to the macro risks that we're undergoing right now and and I hope that you're hedging or divesting or liquidating.

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Or I mean I, I pray you've already refinanced into the record low rates when it was, you know, South of 3%.

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If you did that, then I think you'll be fine. You can weather it. I mean, 3% rates are legend.

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Their record-breaking insanity that should have never happened and that's part of the reason that we're in such a bubble.

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From my vantage point, liquidating at if you have tremendous equity, liquidating in this period makes a ton of sense.

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That's my personal opinion.

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I'm not giving any financial advice.

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You do whatever you want with your book.

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Obviously, I would never Dane to tell someone.

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What they should do, however, I think that if you have a long enough time horizon and you can't exit for whatever reason, but your financing costs are reasonable, then it's it'll probably work out OK.

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I mean, long term, there's still obviously a tremendous amount of demand for real estate, I think.

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That that because of the inflationary pressures, which I honestly don't think that the Federal Reserve can maintain this course of hiking interest rates.

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I think they'll blow up the entire financial market if they do so, I think they'll reverse course and probably start with QE and and reductions in interest rates once again.

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And in that environment, we should see inflationary pressures which buoy and.

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Ultimately escalate the real estate market to a higher level than they are right now, but that could be four or five, six years and and for many younger investors in particular, they can't weather that that interim period that three or four years where they're underwater.

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So those are more the people that I speak to on my show for a professional investor you.

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So, you could take a longer time horizon view.

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to this show, it's almost an:

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You know, it's 80% of people that are looking to get into real estate investing. They're trying to decide on making that jump into this and then you have the 20% that listen to it for.

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But I just I.

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Just I just puckered their *********.

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I would say so, yeah.

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But I mean, we have to face reality.

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And like I mentioned, I get a lot of real estate investing gurus on who paint a really rosy picture and they basically onward and upward and they focus.

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Very heavily on.

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This is when millionaires are made.

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You know the market gets down and your this is the time to buy or you're on the verge of being in a situation.

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It it's the time to.

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Buy and in what and what market?

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Is it down?

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I mean what are they referencing when they say that the markets down?

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Right now, in my market I'm already seeing softening of prices.

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They're starting to draw up on real estate and with the with the interest rates.

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Climbing the pool of buyers is shrinking fast.

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It is, but this is the beginning.

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I mean, really, a real estate decline usually takes 18 months or so for the teeth to really sink in.

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I know.

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I strongly disagree that buying right now is when millionaires are made.

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I would say.

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Millionaires are the people that sell right now, and they go to cash.

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I mean that.

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That's my honest opinion now.

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I do agree with them that millionaires are made in bear markets, but this is not a bear market in real estate yet.

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It will be and I think that will be your opportunity.

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So, if you are listening right now and you don't own real estate, well then count yourself lucky because I think you are setting incredibly pretty, especially if you have your income and your credit in order and you're able to qualify for a mortgage.

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When the time comes, I think that you will be able to enter the real estate market probably.

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25% under what it was just six months ago that's.

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Tremendously advantageous, especially if you have a shorter, you know time horizon in terms of your, your hold, your flip, whatever you're planning to do, it will hurt you because the interest rates are elevated significantly from what you could have bought, you know late last year.

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But if you don't hold for the duration that interest rate doesn't matter tremendously.

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So, I think that that's the opportunity, but really.

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I think that the thing.

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I I'm stunned that professional real estate investors in particular wouldn't see this as you know tremendous headwinds in front of us in the sense that escalating interest rates due to the debt-to-income ratios and the qualification process for.

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How is it that they're going to acquire these properties at these price levels?

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The answer is the vast majority of people will not be able to.

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So that means that the prices will come down to meet that.

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Demand because the demand is not at.

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These levels, not at these interest rates, it's not.

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So, I mean, give me push back if you got any, man, I.

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Would love to.

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I would love to be more.

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I'm not going to push.

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I'm not going to push back.

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In fact, that's.

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I would love to be.

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Why I have you.

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On Flint, you know, that's why I have you on because I like I.

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I'm just, I'm tired of hearing it.

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And when you are facing facts with the lockdowns and everything that went on, we saw a huge sharp increase in.

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In not only labor costs, but we also going to your local Home Depot, I mean everything, everything was increased.

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And now we are dealing with on the Verge, you said maybe 18 months is going to be a bear market when it comes to.

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Real estate investing.

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All of this has created the perfect storm.

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I mean, it's just a mess.

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I in fact, my underwriting calculations are just completely off right now.

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I can't trust any of.

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It right?

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I completely agree, man, and and that's why I exited the market two years ago, because even at that point I couldn't evaluate things in a secure fashion.

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'cause I realize that if you're going to print 7 trillion, you're going to create inflationary pressures.

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That's obviously bullish for.

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The flip side of that is inflation causes the Federal Reserve under their mandate if they're going to abide by it, which they don't have any legal necessity to do so, but because of pitchforks, because the people will ultimately rise up if inflation gets and stays severe enough that it the pain is so significant that they feel as if they're being wronged egregiously, which they are.

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Mind you.

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Then the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates to defend the dollar and to ultimately keep their position of power.

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And that's what they're doing currently.

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But I think that when it comes to do they decide to protect the citizen via sound money or do they protect their interests, which is the biggest banks, the biggest money managers?

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On Earth, I think that they're going to side with the banks.

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So, I think that they will ultimately revert to an inflationary cycle and.

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And they will let us suffer and languish underneath it.

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That's my expectation.

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I could be wrong.

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I hope I'm wrong, but I don't know.

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We'll see.

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Well, it.

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Just seems like they don't even learn from their own lessons.

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I mean, we keep we keep going through these cycles.

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Inflation is a record high.

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They just keep printing money and then.

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Whether it's bailouts or the lockdowns, we print how many trillions of dollars for that?

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And then we're sending more trillions.

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We're just printing money to foreign countries.

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It just doesn't stop.

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Yeah, well, and and now the US Central bank is essentially the backstop to the global economy.

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It's not.

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It's no longer that we're just looking after our own assets and our own companies and our own people.

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We're now the backstop to any defaults that happen in any major money manager across the world.

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We do. What's it called?

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I don't know if it's credit swaps or I can't remember the.

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Term, but essentially, it's the Fed window is now open to currency swaps like in in Europe.

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Right now, we're doing that.

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From what I've read, we've also been doing that for the Japanese with the yen.

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So, this is completely unsustainable that you cannot be a central bank for the world.

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I'm sorry, like you can have a lot of hubris, you can have a tremendous amount of confidence in yourselves, but you guys can't even manage it just for the United States, much less the planet folks.

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So, I think that ends in absolute disaster and we're already witnessing it.

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That's what the fascinating thing is that even though the United States is experiencing.

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In my lifetime, the greatest inflation we've ever experienced within the 8-9. A lot of people think it's higher, but we'll just go with CPI numbers. Say it's 8%.

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What's fascinating, though, is that the US dollar compared to the baskets of other western currencies and even some eastern ones.

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We're crushing it. We're way stronger. I mean the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, while on the yen, everything else is confetti. Compared to the US dollar, we're very, very strong. So, this is a global phenomenon and because of that I am extraordinarily concerned about.

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Where we're headed?

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'cause, if you have a global currency crisis, it's one thing if you have, you know, you had the Asian flu, they called it in the late 90s.

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You had the peso in Mexico and and the Latin America financial crisis in the late 80s, early 90s.

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This is if you have a one off or if you have even a basket of currencies or countries that have issues with their solvency.

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That's one thing, but if you have a global system that is all insolvent, we have never experienced that before in human history.

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I don't know what that means, and anybody that tells you exactly what that means is lying 'cause we have never seen it.

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There is no cognate.

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There is no historical comparison where I can go.

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I've seen this before.

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I know what that happens next.

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No, I don't, but I am very concerned about it, and if you're not paying attention to it, you should be.

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Particularly if.

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You're a real estate.

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Investor, I hate to shift.

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The conversation a little bit, but I keep coming back to the last couple of years where we just tolerated these lockdowns and everybody just kind of went into lockstep regarding the messaging.

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Do you think that we're going to see some sort of propaganda associated with this that everybody just?

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Kind of adapts and just lives with it like we're not.

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Well, yeah, no, we certainly are, and we and we have been, I mean the, the blaming inflation, for instance, they, they attempted very strongly to blame all of our inflationary issues on Vladimir Putin.

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That was the that was the initial narrative as to why our economy was in in shambles.

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It wasn't the seven trillion we printed, or the record interest rates that we maintained.

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For 15 years.

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Had nothing to do with that.

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It was just Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine.

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I mean, it's total ****.

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You see, I mean, not saying that that has no impacted.

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I'm sure it has some impact, but to blame it on that entirely is just laughable.

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So, I think that the next propaganda push will likely be that Central bank digital currencies are the only answer.

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I think that that will be their Band-Aid offered and it will probably be implemented via universal basic income.

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Because the financial pain will be so significant that people will just say, look, I need help.

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How am I going to get help?

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And the central banks are going to turn to you and say, hey, we have help, but it's a new currency, it's called the digital dollar and we will give you X amount of it per month.

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You just have to give over all of your biometric data and and here you go, bobs, your Uncle CBDC is rolled out.

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That's my expectation that's more along the conspiracy thinking.

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I'm not saying that for a fact the other stuff.

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I'm very confident about this.

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I'm less confident about.

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But I do think it's the probable outcome because I don't see an alternative, honestly.

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Where the conspiracy probably comes to reality though, as we already saw it with Visa and MasterCard.

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You, you go into digital currency, have one bad tweet according to their opinion, and they will shut you down.

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I mean, we already see that.

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It already happened in Canada with the with the Freedom convoy they did it to the truckers and and that was yeah, I think that that's.

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That's the inevitable conclusion of this is that, you know, unfortunately, the Western world has been following in the footsteps of the CCP.

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They want to have social credit systems, they already have it on the corporate level via ESG, environmental, social and governance, and I think that they're going to implement it to the consumer level via universal basic income.

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And Central bank digital currencies.

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That's my expectation.

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There's, I mean, they talk about it.

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Christine Lagarde, who's?

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The head of the I think the ECB.

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I forget what her exact title is, but she was talking about it just this week.

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The We have fed papers.

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We have fed white papers that are discussing Central bank digital currencies like this.

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This is not, you know, me, just pulling stuff out of thin air like they are openly discussing it, they're openly working on it, they have been working on it.

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For years and that work has speed up ever since the lockdowns began, so I think it's just a.

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Matter of is it.

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Ready for Showtime, because if it is that I think that.

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It'll be implemented very soon, and if it isn't, then they're going to delay the day of reckoning via manipulating the interest rates to be the Federal Reserve until they can get to that.

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I honestly believe that's the only outcome that I can envision, because the alternatives are so.

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I mean, and for the record, that's about as dystopian as it gets, but from the normies perspective, someone who doesn't understand any of the stuff.

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I'm talking about they're still going to view you buy and a central bank digital currency as an improvement over 10 to 20% annualized inflation.

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That just shreds our savings and our purchasing capacity for decades and decades moving forward.

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I don't think that anyone going to be happy about that outcome.

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And they're not.

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They're just gonna look at the CDC as, you know, a bailout.

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And they couldn't, they couldn't be more.

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You have a something, Clint.

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What can people take advantage of here?

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You mentioned that.

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That we might have a ability to have a superpower when it comes to.

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To the outlook, you already made it mentioned you know hold onto your resources until it's time to strike, but would you say when that time comes would you, would you focus on single family, would you focus on multi family, would you focus on storage units because that's where we're all.

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Living, yeah.

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I mean, I certainly wouldn't focus on cities.

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I would.

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I would probably be most interested in purchasing real estate early because I think if we do enter a sustained inflationary period.

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You'll see crime and all sorts of craziness within the cities that you.

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Want to have to part?

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You don't want to be a landlord over a property where there's a ton of crime.

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So, I think a lot of people are already have been and will continue to migrate to the more rural living and at this point I think that those will be the value buys during the bear market in real estate.

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I also think that long term.

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You know that that's probably going to be some of the best investments you can make because the dollar and and globally Fiat currency by Fiat.

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Since your audience isn't libertarian, I'll just explain.

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It just means printed money.

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Money that's just backed by the, you know, the full faith and promises of the government, whatever that means.

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So, I think that as we see more and more Fiat currencies.

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Essentially dissipate.

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You'll see a tremendous amount of further increasing interest in the Bitcoin market.

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I would highly recommend, if you haven't at least got what I consider an insurance plan in some Bitcoin.

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I think that now would be a good time to take a look, because as a.

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Eight months ago, before this bear market began, you would have been paying 60 to 70,000 per Bitcoin. You can now get it for under 20.

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I'm the type of investor.

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When I see that, then I start to become interested.

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Most the average investor sees the price go from 20 to 70.

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Then they get interested.

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I do the opposite.

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It's a much better way to live.

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Trust me.

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So, I think that that would be a good hedge against inflation, especially if they do migrate to a central bank digital currency, in which case you will have full Panopticon surveillance and you don't want to live that way.

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Well, Bitcoin will be a much less easily trackable mechanism for, you know, purchasing things and transferring assets, things like that.

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So, I think that that will be a.

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Huge opportunity.

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I think that there may be lower entry points.

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Let me be very clear.

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I think that you know, Bitcoin could go significantly lower from here, in which case I would, I would advise dollar cost averaging.

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Like get a little bit now just as it drops every, every time it goes ticks down another thousand, get a little bit more and then you know if it gets down to 10,000 or something like that and you feel like, OK, but I feel like this the bottoms and OK.

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Well then get.

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Whatever the.

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Rest you want and then just set it aside like that.

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That's my that's my plan.

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I think over a decade.

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That will be.

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In credit, just an incredible opportunity.

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So, I like that if it's just a couple percent of your portfolio, I think that over a decade that could potentially make up for the rest of your portfolio like that.

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Honestly, that's how bullish.

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I am.

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So, I think that that's one hedge and then if you're if you're interested in real estate, I think that in the next two years you will have opportunities to do so.

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But I'm, uh, I'm gonna keep your powder dry when there's uncertainty, and the uncertainty for me, pretty high.

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Right now.

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Yeah, and you said Fiat?

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It reminded me I have to share that it was one of the proudest moments I've had in a long time.

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My 16-year-old daughter.

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We were sitting at the kitchen table and and I said Fiat in a conversation and my wife asked what do you mean by that and my daughter explained it to her.

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Oh, that's good.

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I was just like a.

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Man, that that made me happy that night.

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I was worried you're going to say she's like, I don't really like that car.

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No, that was just really great.

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No, that's incredible, man.

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That's great.

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It's good work.

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So, well, Clint, I appreciate you giving me the time here tonight regarding this.

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And and again, I want to remind everybody, head over to Liberty Lockdown for the podcast that Clint hosts.

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You have some amazing get guests on Clint, including I listen to interview with somebody just the other night.

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I'm sorry, I forgot.

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His name.

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But the amount of interest that we pay on notes for the United States is it was shocking, especially.

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And then he goes, well, this is the amount.

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Of tax dollars we collect.

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It was.

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It doesn't pencil.

::

It doesn't pencil.

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Jason Byrek, who was the guest there?

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Jason Berg, yes.

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Yeah, he's the host of Wall Street from Main Street.

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Brilliant Central bank analyst and.

::

And he definitely has added to my wealth of knowledge.

::

Today I did an interview with Greg Foss, who's been a bond trader for 35 years, as well as Guy Swan who is quote UN quote the man who has met read more about Bitcoin than any human being on Earth and and between the three of us.

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We did a 2.

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And 1/2-hour deep dive.

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Into the economy, and I would highly recommend people check that out if you want to.

::

Horrifying understanding as to why particularly the libertarian audience is so bearish right now.

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That'll do it.

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That'll scare you straight.

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It won't be.

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It won't make you feel warm and fuzzy inside.

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But my, my personal opinion as a professional money manager and as a lifelong investor, it's not about.

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Being warm and fuzzy, it's about looking the truth right in its face and planning accordingly so that you can profit from it and hopefully look after your friends and family.

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Talk a lot on.

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The show, Clint, is that we look for return on investment, but we also look for environments.

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I'm concerned.

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We look for return on time.

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Right.

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And and the investment that I place into your podcast has been especially valuable to me.

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You wearing a naturalist capitalist shirt too?

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Well, thank you.

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I like that podcast as well.

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Yeah, I'm just giving support.

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To my buddy, you know.

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Yeah, he is so.

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Again, liberty lockdown.

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I'll make sure to have links corresponding links in the show notes, but I can't thank you enough.

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Clint, I promised to try to keep this to 30 minutes, so I'm going to try to do my best to do that.

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But is there anything else that we you can think of that we should have covered?

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Any questions I should have asked?

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I mean there's so much more I could talk about with the economy.

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So, I don't, I don't think it's worth me going deeper 'cause it would stretch us out for another hour.

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But you know, I just, I just really want to double down and emphasize that in bear markets that is where life changing money is made.

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My only emphasis would be the real estate market is not a bear market yet, just.

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Sit there, be ready.

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Pounce when you see the opportunities.

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There will be opportunities.

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I just don't think that they are right this minute.

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So yeah, you can make life changing money during these periods though I completely turned my life around. I went from basically a broke college kid to a millionaire in five years because of my ability to invest in in the 08.

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Through:

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To dissuade you or make you put your head in the sand, or you know, cow, or become horrified.

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Like that's what investing is about, men, it's about evaluating risk and realizing when outsized returns can be found.

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And if you find them, you can change your life.

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So, I hope that people will take away from this a sense of optimism, even though I've presented nothing but negative information.

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Well, thank you so much Clint.

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I can't ask for a better 30 minutes.

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So, I really appreciate it and but hope hopefully we'll talk again sometime maybe in the bearish market we I can bug you again.

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My pleasure, Jack.

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Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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When I when I feel like there's an opportunity to buy in real estate, feel free to.

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Coming back.

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Yeah, we maybe have a rosier outlook.

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Yeah, I hope so, man.

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I would love.

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To be a.

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Bull again.

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Well, thank you, Sir.

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We'll talk to you.

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Thank you.

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Soon, have you learned at least one actionable step to incorporate into your real estate investing?

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And Twitter.

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You can find links to all of our social media accounts in the show notes. See you next time.