Philip Tetlock’s research on the qualities of Super-forecasters explains why forecasting is hard and how diverse models and systematic thinking can help close the gap.

We discuss:

• Improving predictions by regularly updating data
• The Brier Score and why it really matters
• Why larger samples permit more accurate short term predictions
• The difficulties with the “Long Now” narrative

Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.