Is it better to live one day as the comic singer of a novelty number one, than 100 years as a respected indie band with a cult following?

Nick, Chris and Fraser discuss what constitutes a one-hit wonder, how it applies to other art forms and areas of human endeavour, and whether we should aim for sustained mediocrity or concentrated brilliance.

A few things we mentioned in this podcast:

• UK one-hit wonders
• ‘One Hit Wonderland’ by ToddintheShadows

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Hello and welcome to the Cognitive Engineering Podcast produced by me, Fraser McGruer for Aleph Insights. In this series of podcasts, we take a look at interesting topics and discuss what we think they tell us about analysis and decision making. I'm here with Chris Wragg and Nick Hare of Aleph Insights, and this week we're discussing one hit wonders. And due to the lockdown, unusually, we're recording this remotely. Nick, lead us off. One hit wonders.

Yeah, well, I've recently been watching the odd video by a chap called Todd in the Shadows on YouTube, who's got this really interesting series called One Hit Wonderland, where he looks in detail at one hit wonders. He doesn't use a particularly precise definition of one hit wonder, but we all know it when we see it. Is it pure music? Yeah, it's just entirely music. So one hit wonders, you know, hit people who had one big hit and not really known for anything else. And it's interesting, you know, he goes into what happened to the band before they had the big hit, if anything, and you know what they did afterwards, and gives us all the verdicts about, you know, did they deserve to have a follow up? Didn't. And, you know, you've got bands like Chumbawamba, who had a massive hit with Tub Thumping, but actually had a really long and interesting history either side of that. And, you know, yeah, they kind of, you know, conclusion, yes, they totally deserve to have one big hit. Why not? And then you have people, then you have people like Right Said Fred, you know, who had, in fact, in the UK, they had a couple of hits, but in the US, you know, they just had I'm Too Sexy. And, you know, where he concluded, well, they really weren't particularly good musicians, fair play to them, nice guys, but not, you know, probably didn't really deserve, or at least, you know, deserve that the most to have one big hit.

You see, I've always wondered about Right Said Fred, I assumed they were named after the Bernie Cribbins song. And I'd assumed it was to do with their sort of out of hours activity, because there's that line in it, which is one each end and gently as we go. So I'd always thought that was the origin of their name, but maybe not.

I think you've gone too far. I can't remember what the story is as to why they're named that. But anyway, it did get me thinking, well, you know, being a one hit wonder is not something I don't think anyone aspires to as such. And yet, being a one hit wonder is way more than most of us can hope in a lifetime, on average, right. And I mean, this really, looking across the whole field of endeavours, you know, you've got people who are really very well known for doing a particular thing and not and, you know, not really anything else versus people who perhaps slog away for a lifetime and, you know, and moderately achieve and perhaps in total, achieve more than the person with the one hit wonder. But, you know, and I think I think in a way we we sort of inevitably have more respect for that person than the people who hit it big with one thing. But is it good or bad? Should we aspire to be one hit wonders at least once in our life? I mean, you know, and then, you know, where can you have one hit wonders? You know, who can what kinds of professions can deliver one hit wonders and which ones can't? And yeah, quite interesting bunch of questions, I think.

I like it. I mean, straight off the bat, I think perception is an interesting thing here because we might see people as in whatever the field might be. But let's just take music for a moment. We might we might perceive them as one hit wonders. But as you've pointed out there in the research that that chap did is someone like Chumbawanda. They wouldn't necessarily perceive themselves as one hit wonders. No. And I don't think anyone who

knows about them would think of them that way. Yeah. But the fact that they are known. Yeah. Like almost everyone will not be able to name a single song by them other than Tub

Thumper. You're absolutely right. And it's I think it's that question of of identity as well, is that's why how we identify them. But they wouldn't necessarily identify themselves like that. So interesting set of questions there. Sorry, Nick, can you tell me sort of just go over those questions again? Yeah. So, you know, what was how should is basic

good or bad to be a one hit wonder? But also, are there are there only certain fields where you can be a one hit wonder? Could you be a one hit wonder who was a plumber? You've picked one really difficult boiler once and you've dined out on that for the rest of your life. You know, and if not, why why can you do that in other fields? What's the you know, what makes a field particularly amenable to one hit wonders? And then I have some interesting data which we'll get on to about actually how many one hit wonders there really are.

OK, Chris, any thoughts? Yeah, I mean, I think I think for me, whether, you know, that's that fundamental question of whether it's good or bad. I mean, well, I suppose we perceive it bizarrely as being as being bad. And that's probably the sort of about a boy phenomenon, you know, of that the idea that you you have one one moment that then, you know, subsequently can create generations of sort of idleness and, you know, a lack of requirements to ever achieve anything again. And there's something there's something sort of quite tragic about people who who have had their peak moment and and know the rest of their life and possibly their, you know, their children's life will will never, you know, reachieve that sort of that that level of of success again. So so I think I think that's where the sort of the you know, the downside of it comes. But obviously, you know, you look at you look at what a lot of people do aspire to and particularly in the kind of tech startup phenomenon, you know, that's essentially what people are trying to do. They're trying to be you know, a one a one hit wonder, get rich quick through a successful thing, and then not have, you know, perhaps repeat again, but but not not have to. So yeah, in terms of whether it's a good thing or a bad thing, I mean, I would think most people actually, when it comes down to it, would love to have one concentrated moment of success, and not have to repeat that again, and be able to sustain themselves off off that.

Yeah, well, it's presumably to do with the fact that, that generally people accept that, you know, the lottery is not a skills based exercise. And so it doesn't reflect winning on the lottery, winning the lottery doesn't reflect credit on the people who win it in the first place, they don't well done, you've won the lottery, it's sort of like you lucky bastards, you know, whereas there is a sense in for one hit wonders in whatever area, you know, I mean, they're obviously notable, you know, novelists who've only had one novel, and and we can come on to other other areas in a minute. But, but it's generally thought of as being sort of in a meritocratic area where somebody has done well. And the fact that they can't repeat that success is probably frustrating for them, you know, that they

it's almost like, but even though something that's entirely luck based, in a way, given that we're what we're saying is that luck is, okay, it's okay to be lucky. But it's, you know, and but but the problem with having a one hit wonder in a field where you don't want to believe it's luck is, is that it then just shows that it is it exposes that it's luck. And actually, you were just lucky. You weren't, it's not because you were a great musician. It's because you were lucky. Yeah, I think,

no, I think the inference is that it's that you were good enough to have a one one hit, but not

Oh, yeah. I mean, that must be pretty rare, actually thinking about it. I can only think of sort of novelty type acts like Hale and Pace, perhaps, who, who would be in that?

That is there. I'm gonna say no more than 10. That's what I'm gonna say.

Yeah, I think I'm I think I'm with Fraser on that.

Well, there's actually 60, which will be an average of one a year. They're much more common in recent years. And of course, partly that selection bias, because those people may not have had time yet to have a second hit. But all of them are there, all of the ones that you would expect to be there are there. Right. So the ones that you would immediately think of, and if we brainstorm them.

Before you go ahead, yeah, sorry, let's brainstorm them. But I think there's something linked to this one hit wonder thing is something that sadly died out a bit, which is novelty records. Okay. But

anyway, we need to discuss it.

Yeah. And that's the stigma around one hit wonders as well, that you're not a serious musician. Sorry, Nick,

than the A side. What about the Star Trek song the Trekkies one?

Yeah, I mean, I think so that definition to me sort of moves slightly away from the spirit of what I consider to be a one hit wonder, which is, you know, somebody who is, like, far and away known for one song. Yes, they produced other albums, and they might have got to, you know, their second song might have got to number seven or something, but you can't really remember it or hum the tune.

You're definitely right. But it's precise. That's what's good about it. Yeah. So yeah, actual one hit wonders are far more common. And then because a lot of artists obviously have follow up hits that you don't know about, which got to number 38.

Yeah. And I find that far more interesting, because psychologically, that is the one hit wonder, the person who keeps striving and had previously striven to strive to do so. But for whatever reason, things came together at one moment for them. And I think I think it's looking at those factors and how many of them are, you know, how many of them are related to the agency of the individual and how many of them are external factors. I think that's the interesting aspect of it. And, you know, there are a couple of things that that occur to me and, you know, that might drive this, you know, one of one of them is an element of luck, right? The sort of zeitgeist of the moment, right? The fact that you happen to be producing a particular type of music or, you know, music about a particular subject that just happens to catch something. So you think of Nina and 99 Luftballons and, you know, that that moment of the Cold War, you couldn't produce that song in, you know,

now it wouldn't it wouldn't work. So, you know, there's also I mean, things like things which happen to not even which are more mysterious and more to do with accidentally hitting on the right sound once we're hitting on a thing where there's only space for that for one record, which sounds like that. And the example I always think of is the Macarena, which is it's a great song, right? But there's only room for one Macarena.

Yeah. And also, I mean, it might be, you know, it's like the sort of Jamiroquai effect of like somebody produces songs, but all their songs sound the same, effectively. And you only really want one of those. It's not it's not just that, you know, it's a similar kind of feature, but it's just that their formula was to produce, you know, that type of music. And once you've had one of them, that's kind of that's kind of enough of that.

Well, I think this brings us quite nicely, actually, on to books, because I think I think this is a much more in the world of novels where there's obviously a lot more work goes into a novel than it goes into a hit song, at least on the part of the individual. What would you expect if I if I'm looking at the top 10 best selling books of all time? When you say what we expect, what do you mean? Hey, do you think it's more or less prone to one hit wonders than the world of songs?

Yeah, I mean, intuitively, you'd think it's less, but you're going to tell me it's more.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think I mean, there are obviously notable examples like well, recently sort of over, you know, over overturned examples like like the Harper Lee, you know, To Kill a Mockingbird example where but, you know, and subsequently, she published, you know, with a with a 50 odd year hiatus, you know, Go Set a Watchman. But, you know, that's that's sometimes that's down to the author themselves that they produce a book. In fact, David Mitchell, he's constantly going on, you know, obviously, the Cloud Atlas is the book that he is most known for, but he's written a lot of other books, a lot of other very good books. I think I've read something else by him. Yeah, you brought the Black Swing screen. Yeah, of course. Black Swan Green, I think. Yeah. So David Mitchell, obviously, you know, renowned for Cloud Atlas and having having written a lot of other books. But he he obviously feels this very keenly because in in a lot of his other novels, there's a there's a recurrent character. He's appeared in at least two books. And I could forget the character's name now, but he harks on about this book that he once wrote called something like Desecrated Embryos or something. So this is this character and is a blatant call out to his own experience of of having written Cloud Atlas. And every all of the books, this author, who's a bit of a sort of rake producer subsequently, are never as well received. And everybody always goes on about this particular book. And he's really bitter about it. So, yeah, it's my sense is that it would probably be it's probably less the case in in in literature because you get sort of everybody goes, oh, I really liked e.g. The Kite Runner. I'll I'll buy, you know, the author's next book, which turns out to to be terrible. But you buy the second the second book. Yeah. Yeah, that should that ought to happen with music is all right.

But I mean, the I think it is hard here because because actually I have never found I haven't found a list, an equivalent list. I suspect there'll be a lot more one hit wonders, but they're not none of them are the really big sellers. So tragically, right. The top 10 bestselling books of all time are written by only three people. Now, there will be no prizes. So this is just in the UK. Sorry. No, no, no, no. You're not thinking mass market enough. But who is that? I tell you, one person is going to be J.K.

Rowling must have J.K.

Rowling. We're talking specifically fiction. Is that right? Seven of the top 10 bestselling books. I mean, that is unbelievable. Dan Brown has written two of them. Right. The other the other one. And this really is an indictment is Fifty Shades of Grey by E.L. So the and in fact, it's the same goes for music. If you look at the top 50 bestselling hit singles of all time, actually none of them are one hit wonders. And most of them are pretty well known. So I and I said, I mean, as Chris said, there's this there's this sort of issue here of there being a sort of self-fulfilling element. But it also challenges the idea of what the work is. So if you take something like Harry Potter, the work, the thing that is the hit is not the book, Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone. I mean, the work is the world of Harry Potter. That's the invention, which is the big hit. No one would expect J.K. Rowling. It's going to be inconceivable that she could come up with this bigger hit again ever. So but I mean, yeah, it's challenging to come up with a concrete sort of definition, I think, of a one hit wonder in the literary world. But I think it's fair to say that actually one hit wonders are pretty rare. You know, most bands, most songs that are well-known, most of the bestselling versions of anything, the bestselling things are generally by people who are known for more than one of those things.

Yeah. Look, I mean, we're actually we've already come quite a long way. We're close to needing to wrap up. Not that close.

Inventions. Well, I'm trying to work out where is where are the one hit wonders?

Right. So this is what I want to ask. So we've talked about music. We talked about literature. Where else? Where else? Where else can we establish this?

Well, I think I mean, I was just going to say I was surprised by what Nick was saying, that that the one hit wonders are are rare because you would you would think, you know, the phenomenon of regression to the mean that they would be less, less rare, you know, that if you've achieved something very, you know, very high, your next achievements are more likely to be mediocre. But maybe that's the point that, you know, that you don't suddenly go from being at, you know, the very extreme upper end of success to being right down back to the middle again. You you know, you sort of regress to the mean more gradually than that. So so you know.

So I think and I think this is a key part of a sort of a coherent theory of one hit wonders. I would say there's a necessary characteristic of the of the field and it's that success is long tailed. You cannot have a one hit wonder in a in a in a normally distributed success sort of field. Right. So people who kind of if you take something like, yeah, plumbers, plumbers are good and bad, but they aren't like plumbers who are stratospherically better than other plumbers. You can't get a one hit wonder winner takes all kind of, you know, plumber. Whereas in the world of you look at novel sales, you know, you basically publishing how publishing works is, you know, 95% of books make a loss and then 5% of hits. And that's and it's and I would assume it's a similar pattern with music. So you cannot you're not going to get one hit wonders unless you're in a world same business. Right. So startups, you know, most of them just make some money and that's it and go under. And and others, you know, become Facebook and Twitter. And I and I sort of think you've got to have that. But the problem, the other issue is like so the fact that actually it can be self-fulfilling. So it's how sustainable and how how much of a sort of monopoly you can get, you know, by by having that big success. How much does that success help help feed your next, you know, your next success? And I think it's something like Elon Musk, you know, obviously made lots of money with through PayPal. I think it was, wasn't it? And but then is able to then he's able to start a space program. And, you know, most people can't do that. If Elon Musk had tried to start with the space program, he wouldn't have made the money or with Tesla. They wouldn't have made the money. He wouldn't have been able to do it. And I think it's the same with, you know, Harry. I mean, it was J.K. Rowling's second book was a lot of it was a much easier sell than her first book because the first one had been a hit. It was nowhere near as much work for her to get that published than it was to get the first one published. So, yeah, I think as you know, as Chris said, there is that's going to be the trajectory, isn't it? You're going to have, you know, most once you've achieved that height, it isn't just an immediate plummet off the cliff. If there's a decline, it's going to happen gradually because it's much easier for you to keep producing stuff once you've had a hit.

Yeah, look, we need to finish off. There's a question I want to ask. But before we do, just one thing, it strikes me that even if we think about music and I think maybe this is what you're talking about, Nick, I don't know. But even people who we don't think of one hit wonders have really established well-known groups of musicians are often in a way one hit wonders. It's just that their line, you know, the peak and then the long tail drop off just happens at a higher level, as it were. So, you know, and the classic, you know, the difficulty of the third album is that kind is that's kind of what we're talking about. So there's sort of a lot of one hit wonders out there in a way, I think. I don't know. There is a question you want me. I want to ask. You ready for me to ask that? Yeah. Really predictable question. OK, but it can be in any field you want, whether it's music or elsewhere. Favorite one hit wonder.

Yeah, I tell you what, I discovered a guy who when I was I was looking a little bit at business one hit wonders. Again, very tricky to define, actually, because, you know, it's hard to say how much is, you know, someone's ability and most people can go on to use their money to do something else. So on one hand, you've got people like Howard Hughes, who not that not that Howard Hughes. It was actually his dad, Howard Hughes Sr., who invented the two cone drill bit. You know, the two cone drill bit. You probably got one at home. No, it was big in the oil game. Came along at the right time. Very good. Apparently it's smashing through rock and getting to oil. I became a multi-billionaire, you know, off off the back of this two two cone drill bit. Invented other things, but they were mainly drill bits. So he's I would class him as a sort of one hit wonder, really. Technology one hit wonder. But the one guy, a guy called Lonnie Johnson, who I didn't know anything about, but he's a skiffle.

No, that's Lonnie Donegan.

Oh, sorry. Well, who isn't a one hit wonder because he had other hits. Excellent musician.

My old man's a dustman.

Yeah, well, but also I was thinking the Rock Island Line. Rock Island Line, yeah. I was putting money on the road. It's the road to ride. Anyway, so Lonnie Johnson invented loads of things, things about sort of film, film batteries, thermo electrical converter systems, you name it. And since he's invented loads of stuff, had his own in basically like modern day Edison inventing place, which, you know, but he's his big hit. His big hit was the super soaker. He'd got a patent on a new kind of you remember when we were when we were in the in the 80s, in the 70s, 80s, you know, water pistols were crap, weren't they? Rubbish. And he invented the super soaker through this new mechanism for a for squirting, squirting water out of a squirt gun. So I that's the kind of career I can have a lot of respect for, you know, somebody who's got they've done they've got their chops inventing thermo electrical converter systems. Then they hit it big with the super with the super squirt. It's a bit like, you know, it's a bit like those is a bit like bands like Chumbawumpa, you know, who are sort of known as esoteric kind of experimental musicians and then have their massive. Yeah, like like Marilla, you'll find that a lot of in a lot of these one hit wonders that the fans of that band really hate them like Kaylee by Marillion. You know, you've got these sort of heavy metal fans who really like Marillion but hate Kaylee. Yeah, yeah.

Chris? Yeah, I think probably for me, it'd be kind of historical figures. So so where they're not necessarily one hit wonders themselves, but within their kind of culture at the time, they were one hit wonder. So you think of somebody like Alexander the Great, you know, and the fact that he created, you know, one of the biggest land empires there's ever been. But as soon as it was time to kind of hand it over, it all fell apart. You know, Charlemagne is similar. You know, the the Carolingian Empire never achieved the heights that he that he brought it to. So, yeah, I think I've got a place for individuals who came along within a dynasty or within a system and, you know, were were clearly amazing throughout their entire life. But their their predecessors or their ancestors could never quite.

Successes could never quite recreate that success in a rather more pedestrian fashion. I'm going to bring it back to music and one hit wonders. I have to say, I do love the first record I ever bought, and I was probably seven or eight years old, was Joe Dolce, as we said, Shut Up Your Face. And I think I played it until I nearly wore it out. But actually, in a similar vein, I do have and I still do love for novelty records. And I still play them these days on Alexa more than I should. So, for example, as we were talking about, Right Said Fred, Bernie Kribben's Right Said Fred, I think it's a phenomenal song. I absolutely love it.

Of course, Bernie Kribben's had other hits like, yeah, he did a song about digging a hole in the ground, digging it, don't want it there, then digging it here, that one.

Yeah, yeah. Yeah. And also someone who's famous for all sorts of like Benny Hill and Ernie, The Fastest Movement. I think that's a fantastic song. It's got great lines in it. When she saw the size of his hot meat pies, it very near turned her head. Yeah. And also Pasteurized. I'll put pasteurized milk in it. I'll be happy if it comes up to my chest. Right. On that note, let's stop there. I really enjoyed that. So thank you, as always, for listening to the Cognitive Engineering Podcast. I'm Fraser McGruer. We've been here with Nick Hare and Chris Wragg of Aleph Insights. Until next time, goodbye.

Cue yakety sax.