History is a tapestry woven from choices, accidents, and pivotal moments that could have drastically altered its course. This episode delves into some of the most consequential "what if" scenarios in history, exploring near misses that could have reshaped our world in unimaginable ways. From the Mongol invasion of Europe to the devastating impact of the Black Plague, and finally to the brink of nuclear war during the Cold War, we examine how these pivotal moments could have played out differently. Each hypothetical situation reveals not only the fragility of history but also the interconnectedness of events that define our present. Join us as we pull back the curtain on these unlit corners of history and imagine the alternate roads not taken.

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History is not a straight line.

It's a web of choices, accidents and close calls.

Behind every headline in the history books, there's a shadowy world of what if moments where a single decision or twist of fate could have rewritten everything.

What if the Mongol horde had thundered past the gates of Vienna, conquering Europe and altering the course of Western civilization?

What if the Black Death, already devastating Europe, had managed to spread even further, wiping out entire civil or communities, not civilizations.

Imagine a world where the Ottomans had actually triumphed in their conquest to take Europe with the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, or even the modern world as we know it have taken root.

And then there, of course, you know, recent brushes with disaster.

The Cuban Missile Crisis, where one wrong word could have plunged us into nuclear Armageddon.

These moments are not just speculative, they are history's unlit corners, the alternate roads we never took.

Today we'll pull back the curtain, some of the most consequential what ifs of all time.

Exploring near misses that almost could have, you know, reshaped the world in unimaginable ways.

And we're going to try to imagine them on another episode of the Remedial Scholar.

That's ancient history.

I feel I was denied critical need to know information belongs in a museum.

Stop skipping your remedial class.

Welcome to the Remedial Scholar.

I am your host, Levi, and it's good to see you.

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No, it's.

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Hope you enjoyed all the festivities.

If you partake.

Happy to be here, hopefully.

Well, I hope the yearbook episode went well.

Don't know yet, but I hope it did.

Yeah.

Anyway, that was kind of an interesting thing to try, so I look forward to the feedback I get from it.

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All this guy do is beg.

No, but I guess I will take the hint and we are going to move on with it.

So the topic today is actually a listener suggestion, at least I think it is.

I was given the idea, but I'm not sure it took this.

Like I took it in the same direction that they had in mind.

I'm assuming after it comes out that I'm going to find out whether or not I did it properly.

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I might, you just got to tell me.

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I'm working on it, but I don't know how yet.

Anyway.

Yeah, so that's where this topic came from kind of.

I, I mean it's the.

Basically it's just a what if situation in history.

Right?

You, we have these moments in history where something could have happened, but it didn't or it almost happened.

And that's kind of, that's kind of where I'm going with this.

And I like, I like exploring concepts like this, you know, taking, you know, the context of situations in the.

And twisting them and see just hypotheticals.

It's super fun for me.

And it's also, you know, sets the stage.

Could, could do a sequel.

We could have a sequel episode of this down the road.

I mean there's a lot of things that have not happened and there's a lot of things that have happened and you know, it's a never ending plethora of things.

This probably could be its own podcast of what ifs.

Anyway, that's, that's the idea.

You know, some major things that almost happened or did happen and how it would be if they didn't happen.

There's a wide range going back to medieval Europe, mine to the, to the, to the time of the Mongols, the Black Plague, the Victorian age and the nuclear age.

So lot to go over.

So we're just going to get started.

Let's get into it.

First one involves something that we have danced around in episodes before.

One that should definitely go through fully on its own episode or probably several.

You know, some of the more fascinating aspects of history belong to these people is a lot of anecdotes attributed to their ferocity.

And if you've been paying attention, you can probably guess that it's the Mongols that I'm talking about.

Now understand that the Mongols have this mythological identity thanks to modern resurgence of these cultures.

Same thing with like Sparta and the Vikings.

Of course, like those two cultures, the Mongols did a lot to earn their reputation.

It's not like people are just like, we should say that they're super strong and can conquer everybody.

That'll.

That'll teach them.

No.

As they, they wrecked people and if you were in their Sights, it was probably not good no matter what.

So today I'm talking about the abandoned invasion of Europe.

The Mongols attempted invasion in Eastern Europe, like at the Danube river, which was fortified by Hungarians.

And ultimately the invasion was pushed back.

There's several things that could have caused this.

A lot of people point to how more strong, have stronger the European fortresses and knights could have been in compared to, you know, the, the places that the Mongols attacked in Asia that these, these castles were too much for the Mongol horde.

Right.

Other points are like, you know, there's a death of a con and, and a lot of everybody had to kind of like turn around and go basically do a pilgrimage back to get to watch the new con be selected.

And that was part of their tradition.

So that threw a wrench in the plans.

Right.

But the main thing I think to remember about why they didn't invade Europe as, as intentional, like as hardcore as they did everywhere else, I think that their heart just wasn't in it.

And I mean, it'll make sense in a little bit.

But just to get you up to speed, the Mongols at this point, if you don't know, the Mongols are a nomadic or were, they're pretty sedentary now.

We're a nomadic collection of tribes in the mountainous steps of Central Asia, known for their skills in horseback riding, archery, and their ferocious tenacity and strategy.

These people would unite together under one man, Temujin, AKA Genghis Khan.

Yes, I said Genghis Khan.

Little known fact.

That's how it's supposed to be pronounced.

Nobody knew that.

Probably didn't help having John Wayne play him back in the 60s Pilgrim.

There's a lot of tribes to kind of connect.

And he had to rely on things like diplomacy, military prowess and just sheer determination.

Quickly the Mongol Empire grew and Genghis took his fight to the neighboring kingdoms.

So he's, he's cooking.

The estimated size of the empire at the time of his Death is around 9 million square miles, which is 23 million square kilometers for any of my non American listeners.

The vast territory included much of Central Asia, parts of present day China, obviously Mongolia, Siberia, the Persian Plateau, and parts of Eastern Europe.

Now, after his death, his successors continued to expand his empire, which eventually grew to its maximum size of about 12.7 million miles square miles, or 33 million square kilometers.

And that was under Kublai Khan, making it the largest contiguous empire in history.

Kublai Khan being the ruler who, if you might remember, was in charge when they tried to invade Japan a couple times and all of their ships sank because the kamikaze or divine winds had sank them.

Also, if you've been around following the show long enough, you might know that I made a little animated video about that too.

So if you don't know, it's on the YouTube.

I believe I posted it on the Facebook and Instagram as well.

But anyway, Kubla Khan also one of the more fun names to say in history.

Kublai Khan.

Okay.

Now Ogedai turned his attention to finishing the conquest of the Jin dynasty in northern China, which had resisted Mongol rule for years.

Leading a coordinated assault with tens of thousands of Mongol troops, Oged Eye worked alongside his brother and the famed Gen.

After capturing the Jin capital of Kaifeng and several other key cities, the Jin dynasty collapsed, leaving northern China firmly under Mongol control.

Ogadai then focused on securing Mongol influence over key trade routes in the new territories in the Caucus and Middle East.

His forces swept through Georgia, the country, Armenia and Persia, which is, you know, modern day, modern day Iran can't talk today.

Subjugating local rulers and consolidating control over the Silk Road pathways, critical to the empire's wealth and influence.

Then they captured several fortified cities, coerced Goryo king into paying tribute.

Though Korean resistance continued over the next few decades.

Odai's most ambitious campaign, however, was directed towards Europe.

With, you know, Hungary very unprepared for this.

And it, it kind of looked like the Mongols could just keep going, but they turned around.

And this led to an unexpected withdrawal as Batu Khan and other generals had to return to Mongolia for the sale for the selection of the Great Khan, a decision that spared them at that moment.

So what would have happened had the Mongols returned?

Well, I mean, they did.

They did return.

It was substantially less intense.

But the biggest thing to think about is how wildly unprepared the Europeans were at that point, specifically Hungary.

When the Mongols left, all of them kind of collectively decided to beef up their defenses.

And Hungary actively amassed an army to protect their eastern border.

Right.

Because they were like, we don't know if this is going to happen again, but it might.

Yeah.

So I think this also contrasts to the early expansion of the Mongol Empire, you know, because Hungary and co had that much more time to prepare for the next iteration of the Mongols.

But then, then again, they also didn't know when it was going to happen again.

In that time, more fortifications were built.

And in contrast to the Asian fortresses, there were many more of them.

And they held specific defensive positions, like atop hills or, you know, embedded in mountains, things like that, which they weren't larger than, like some of the Asian fortresses, but there's a difference, because fortifications in a lot of the places that the Mongols invaded in Asia were surrounding cities, whereas in Europe you had these, like, standalone forts and castles all over the place.

Fortifications in Europe were essentially the medieval version of a space race.

They made more castles.

And because Europe was a bunch of these decentralized powers constantly warring with one another, Asia and Asia had more centralized powers.

The castles were created to withstand many attacks, so they created, you know, more defensive and ingenuitive manners to defend their castles.

However, this is not the point of the episode.

You know, this is.

I'm just kind of giving you some reason, like some rationale as to some of the things that prevented them from, you know, succeeding or continuing.

Some other issues kind of already laid out.

But, you know, it's time to get hypothetical.

What.

What happens if they went all in?

What happens if the khan manages to prevent the issues within his camp?

Or, say the other, like Batu and Subtai don't turn around.

Let's say that the resources that they need and logistical issues that could potentially prevent anything like this were an issue.

You know, they're.

They're inspired enough to approach Europe with the same tenacity that they did with most of Asia at that point.

Well, for starters, would have been pretty.

Pretty horrifying for those on the other end of it.

Full invasion most likely would have stopped also.

I mean, just because of the terrain on that section of Europe, you.

You run into mountains, you run into, like, thick forests.

And the Mongols like their horsies.

So kind of hard to invade in a situation like that.

But for fun, obviously, that's what we're doing here.

Good family fun.

Let's say they just keep going, Defying all the odds, pursuing conquest full tilt.

The Mongols committing fully to an invasion, conquering Europe, their conquest would have really messed things up.

I mean, in a lot of different ways.

You know, the Mongols, known for their swift and highly coordinated military strategies and psychological warfare, would have just.

They would, they would have done some damage.

And I want to put it into perspective of some things because, I mean, everybody knows how upsetting it was when the Norse approached England, right?

When they started working their way down from the northern European areas in like 800, 900, when they started doing that, they, they had very similar tactics.

They weren't on horses, but they were like, we're just kind of gonna raise hell.

We're coming in.

Like, you know, that is very, very similar in, in terms of how unpredictable it could be.

And obviously that had a lasting impact because of how much those people have lingered in the minds of the people, like, just everywhere, right?

So imagining that same thing, but on, like, a way bigger scale with the Mongols.

That's tough, man.

That is rough.

I think also the cities would have been caught off guard in a huge way, because, like I said, you know, we have European fortifications that are spaced out, and the towns and Villages and cities aren't really within wall.

The big, big cities still have walls like from, you know, late Roman Empire and then they've kind of upgraded it and stuff, but not all of them.

And so you get, you get these Mongols coming through the countrysides just pillaging everything.

It would have been bad.

It would have been real bad.

It would have disrupted so many things.

European agricultural situations would have been toast, social structures, just everything, you know, and then also head to head military battles that would have out of been tough too.

Beyond the military campaigns, the Mongols also knew how to do biological warfare.

Right.

Which weakened the population within because they all started dying of the plague.

Pretty crazy.

It's, that's so wild now.

You know, I don't want to get into the weeds of like if the Mongols had brought the plague with them and then conquered Europe, but they knew how to, they knew how to use creative ways to mess people's days up.

So it's not that like I'm saying that they would use the plague, but I'm just saying that they could use some stuff that really nobody would expect to see coming.

Right.

Um, yeah.

So politically when the Mongols started, you know, conquering things, this would have thrown the feudal system out of whack local wars.

Local lords might have been forced to, you know, submit as, you know, tributaries to retain their power.

They would have to spend a lot of money and give their money and their things upward.

European society already dealing with some of the devastation of their feudal system at the time of this potential invasion, as things were kind of straining the Catholic Church's influence also would have started to fail.

The Mongols were known for their religious tolerance of the people that they were conquering.

They would have allowed diverse faiths and they would have weakened the church's long standing political stronghold on the people of Europe.

You know, so many religious persecution events happened at the hands of the Catholic Church and you know, most famously, like things like the Spanish Inquisition would not have been a thing underneath Mongol control because there was no, there would be no power structure to enforce that kind of thing.

Mongol governors also might have restructured political hierarchies to align with their empire's governance model, which like I said, would have thrown the feudal system away essentially there there'd be more direct oversight from regional administrators, administrators who were loyal to the khan and economically would have been, I mean it wouldn't have been super different, but depending on how aggressive the conquest was and how much damage was done by the Mongols.

The year, the recovery period for Europe could have taken a little bit.

I think one of the things that would have helped though with that specific aspect is that they would be now included in this expansive trade network, you know, utilizing the Silk Road, having access to so many different goods from all across Asia.

I also think this is important because in medieval Europe there is kind of a, hey, we're not going to trade over there.

Like it was not a thing.

And that's why kind of towards the, towards the Renaissance, you have, we're going to start, we're going to start looking for other ways to get to Asia because we're not going to use the Silk Road, you know, so having access to that, unfettered access to it could have, could have made things really interesting.

Yeah, global power dynamics would have shifted.

Real heavily weakened Mongol controlled Europe might have been integrated into the Mongols network which extended, you know, from China, Persia, all over the place and would have shifted Europe's focus eastward rather than, you know, colonial expansion.

The age of exploration, like I said, you know, probably would have been delayed or halted entirely just because of the resources that they were trying to get to, were that much easier to get.

Now you didn't have to sail all the way around Africa or you didn't have to try to sail around the globe to get there.

In this alternate reality, Asia's dominance in trade and politics might have, you know, been more solidified.

Europe would be more isolated and less influential.

They would have been, you know, seen as a subsidiary instead of the main actor and what's going on, which, I mean, who knows what that could have, like how that would have changed literally everything.

But yeah, so that's, that's kind of the guesstimate.

I mean it's hard to, it's hard to predict anything outside of what was already kind of going on like you know, 600 years into the future after the Mongols invaded Europe and succeeded.

I have no idea, like it's so hard to imagine.

I don't know how technology would have changed.

I don't know what, what that would look like.

But I welcome any and all hypotheses.

But now I would be remiss if I neglected to transition from the Mongols to the Black Plague by way of the Mongols using the plague to invade places.

Just that Sijikafa is so interesting.

Anyway, we're going to back up a little bit.

The earliest known appearance of the Black Plague, Yersinius pestis bubonic plague It's a bacterium that primarily resided in fleas, which attached to them, at which attached to various rodent populations.

The black plague unleashed a wave of horror across Europe in the 14th century.

Its brutal grip.

Man, I'm struggling.

Left a deep and lasting scar on the psyche of the continent.

Originating in the steppes of central Asia, the black.

The black plague, Yersinia pestis bacterium.

Initially spread by fleas that thrived on rats.

As trade routes like the Silk road facilitated movement of goods and, you know, people, the disease crept westward, finding its way onto merchant ships that docked in Europe.

From there, it swept rapidly through towns, villages, transforming ordinary lives into scenes of unimaginable horror.

Infected individuals experienced a nightmarish array of symptoms that marked the disease's brutality.

Victims, you know, suffered with things like fever, chills, excruciating pain, as swollen lymph nodes known as buboes emerged in their groins, necks, and armpits.

These grotesque swellings were often accompanied by dark patches on the skin.

The infection spread, and blood vessels began to break down, leading to a gruesome phenomenon known as blackening.

Also sounds awful.

Though stricken faced a rapid decline, many succumbed within days, leaving trail of despair and horror in their wake.

The psychological toll of the plague was equally devastating.

Fear and panic gripped communities as the disease seemed to strike without warning, claiming victims indiscriminately.

Families were torn apart, and survivors watched helplessly as loved ones succumbed to the plague's relentless advance.

In their anguish, many believe that the disease was punishment from God, leading to a sense of fatalism that permeated in society.

Some individuals turned to extreme religious practices such as flagellation in an attempt to atone for their sins and seek divine mercy.

While others, they sought solace in the embrace of death itself, maybe even rejecting their religion.

The streets became eerily silent, filled with echoes of mourning, coughing, people, you know, fleeing from the infected, or simply abandoning those who are suffering.

As the death toll mounted, the psychological scars deepened.

Survivors were often left in a state of prolonged grief, struggling to comprehend the staggering loss of family and friends.

The pervasive atmosphere of death led many to experience a deep sense of hopelessness, and communities fragmented under the weight of collective trauma.

Some survivors turned to denial, while others fell into despair, unable to cope with the reality of.

Of their situation.

A sense of isolation palpable as people increasingly withdrew from one another.

Hearing the very touch of their neighbors might bring the plague upon them.

The fabric of European society continued to unravel as the plague disrupted traditional structures.

The sign significant loss of life not only devastated communities, but also shifted balances of power a little bit.

Labor shortages emerged, leading to newfound leverage for peasants and laborers who demanded better wages and conditions.

The feudal system, which was already strained at the time, began to crack under the pressure of these changes.

Yet amid the in, yet amid the chaos, there was a growing recognition of the humanity shared among the survivors.

Fragile bond formed in the ashes of the tragedy that was before.

Like falling up words.

Culturally, the horrors of the plague found expression in art and literature, where themes of mortality and suffering began to show themselves.

Artists and writers, influenced by the pervasive presence of death, depicted the grim realities of the time.

The dance of death or Danse macabre emerged as a poignant motif, illustrating the inevitability of death that haunted every corner of society.

Meanwhile, literary literature, like Dante's Divine Comedy, explored the profound spiritual questions raised by the calamity.

Ultimately, the Black plague left so much, so much weight on the collective consciousness of the people of Europe.

The horrors experienced by those infected, coupled with the psychological devastation felt by the survivors, reshaped societal values and relationships.

In the aftermath, the shadows of this despair kind of receding.

Communities began to rebuild, but they were forever changed by the lessons of the plague.

But what if this disease just kept going?

It already killed 20 to 35 or 25 to 30 million people, which shifted demographics.

Depopulated metropolitan areas.

Labor shortages gave workers a little more leverage on how they were able to bargain for better wages.

It weakened the feudal system, and peasants now had leverage to their landowners.

Farming had innovation to compete with massive loss of labor.

You're losing people left and right.

You got to get creative on how you're going to do some of this crop tending.

Right Again, it set the stage for the Protestant Reformation later on.

The faith in the church had been so low because of the devastation and the plague, Many health practices were also being adopted at the time, with heretical accusations being a thing of the past.

You know, they weren't worried about Satan coming to get you if you're washing your hands.

They were, we got to do whatever we can to not let this happen again.

The biggest thing in my mind is how the plague preceded the Renaissance.

The rebirth of the arts, education, things like that came from the ashes of this dark time.

So what would the outcome be had the disease just kept going?

Or conversely, what would happen if it never went To Europe at all.

Now we're going to start with if it continued to spread, which, you know, could have been due to any number of reasons, you know, it's.

It is a.

It is a frightening aspect, and that's why I'm chuckling just like, it just kept going and we could stop it, all right?

Anyway, whether the warmer weather contributed to it or it started jumping to different animals, the consequences for Europe and the broader world Would have continued to be catastrophic.

Extended epidemic might have resulted in, you know, breaking down the society even further, you know, wiping out entire communities, skyrocketing the death tolls.

Some places could have just been straight up abandoned.

Ongoing instability would have sparked significant political transformations.

You know, we would have had people rioting, trying to figure out a way to fix it, right?

In such a chaotic environment, Alternative government models would emerge, including communal decision making or democratic assemblies, Fundamentally getting rid of the feudal system as a whole.

Socially prolonged suffering could have transformed gender roles as well, with women stepping into roles typically held by men, Resulting in a greater gender equality over time and altering the family dynamics.

Economically, the continuous threat of the plague Would have created a cycle of disruption, with further economic instability, Leading to food shortages and increased prices.

However, the labor shortages caused by the pandemic also allowed the surviving workers to negotiate for better wages and working conditions, so that led to the burgeoning middle class.

This new class of skilled laborers and tradespeople had greater influence and purchasing power, and it helped shift the focus of the economy away from feudalism To a more market oriented structure, so we would have seen more of that.

The need for skilled laborers could have accelerated advancements in medical science, Leading to significant innovations and more pronounced understanding of hygiene.

Culturally, ongoing despair might have fueled radical philosophical movements Questioning the existence of life and morality, Shifting to shifting the focus of art and literature to themes of chaos in the human condition.

The disruption of trade routes due to a persistent epidemic could also have isolated certain regions, which would diminish the cultural exchange, leading to localized economies.

In the realm of education, a focus on public health Might prioritize medical training, Establishing universities and formal education systems that lay the groundwork for future intellectual movements.

Furthermore, environmental impacts could arise, you know, as cultivated lands were being reclaimed by nature because there's less people to work them, Altering local ecosystems.

With fewer people to exert pressure on the environment, Ecosystems could recover in ways not possible under normal circumstances.

On a global scale, a weakened Europe may have had less capacity for exploration and colonization, Delaying or changing the course of global imperialism and its effects on, you know, the various indigenous populations.

Ultimately, the intertwining of these changes could create a vastly different society, fundamentally altering the trajectory of Europe and, you know, the impact that it would have on the world.

So how, how exciting that could have been.

And had the plague never happened, never spread to Europe?

Well, it would have been the exact opposite, essentially, um, first and foremost, the demographic stability would have continued.

It would not have shuttered.

There would have been less people dying.

Right.

You have way over that four year period, you have 30 million extra people.

Communities would not have faced, you know, such a dramatic depopulation that led to labor shortages, which means that the feudal system would have persisted longer.

Landowners would have more power, continue.

People who need land, need, need work.

You know, you have more and more people.

Well, that's less people that I have to care about.

Because if that guy doesn't want to do his job, I can kick him out and get somebody else to come in.

You know, if that guy wants more money, I can get somebody else to do it.

Right.

Economically, the plague would.

The absence of the plague would have led to a sustained continuity in trade and agricultural practices.

Established trade routes would not have faced the same interruptions.

Labor supply would remain steady, reducing the pressure on landowners, which ultimately would maybe stifle innovation or improve working conditions.

Right.

The stagnation might have delayed the agricultural revolution, slowed overall economic progress.

Culturally, the lack of the plague would have altered the focus of art and literature as well.

All these themes of mortality, suffering, doom and gloom, stuff that gained prominence during the time would not have resonated with many at the time.

And that kind of thinking could have delayed or changed the character of the Renaissance.

Later on, religiously, the church's authority might not have been so fragile towards the end, they would have been a little more robust.

Without the disillusionment arising from the plague's devastation, people still would trust them.

Hey, we're still alive.

The things are going great, I guess, which could have potentially slowed down or tweaked the Protestant Reformation in a way which, you know, if you listen to the Gunpowder Plot, you know, that had a pretty intense impact on everything.

Furthermore, the absence of demographic and economic shifts would have resulted in less impetus for exploration and colonization.

Desire to seek new lands and resources that emerge from labor shortages could have diminished at the same time.

That might have still gone down.

Just because you have so many more people, you have to feed in different ways.

So now you have to have to start getting creative in that way.

Additionally, the lack of a health crisis would meant there was less urgency for medical research and public innovations and sanitization.

Environmentally, the absence of the rapid population decline would have continued this urban sprawl effect in places like London and Paris and things like that.

Obviously those places are big now, but they could have continued to grow at a faster rate on a larger scale.

The geopolitical landscape would have been altered.

The balance of power in Europe and the world shifted.

Places like the Ottoman Empire, which gained, you know, gained a lot from the weakened European powers at the time during the plague, might not have achieved their same level of prominence.

So essentially the same would have continued just a little bit longer.

And advancements which the plague brought on because of, you know, trying to, trying to compensate for it might not have happened for a little bit longer.

This is like the main period when you, when, when people talk about the Black Plague, that's it.

And those years were pretty, pretty formative on how civilization, especially, you know, Western civilization formed.

Continuing the trend of talking about something that was touched on in the last section, let's talk about Ottomans.

And no, not the thing you put your feet up on at old people's houses, although those are great.

I kind of actually wish when I had one under my desk.

Ottoman Empire, one of history's most influential and enduring empires, traces its roots back to late 13th century in Northwest Anatolia, where Osborn I established a state that would gradually grow into the formidable power.

Starting as a small principality, the Ottoman state took advantage of the weakening Byzantine Empire and the disintegration of the Seljuk Turks, carving out territories that would lay the foundation for vast empire.

Under Osmund's successors, his son Oren and others, the Ottomans steadily expanded, seizing the city of Bursa, which became their first major capital.

Empire continued to grow in strength and ambition, culminating in one of the most monumentous events in early history, the capturing of Constantinople.

After 53 days, his forces breached the defenses of the city, ending the Byzantine Empire.

Byzantine Empire, as you might know, formed from the broken western or eastern Roman Empire.

So kind of, kind of impressive.

This victory not only reshaped the regional dynamics, but established the Ottomans as a dominant power, bridging Europe and Asia and attracting the attention of Christian Europe at the same time.

With Constantinople as its capital now, the Ottoman Empire grew rapidly extending its influence across the Balkans, capturing Serbia, Bosnia, creating Vassal states to secure its western borders.

The new territories brought a wide array of cultures, religions, languages into the empire which the Ottomans managed to manage through a sophisticated administrative structure they implemented which was called the Millet system, allowing religious minorities a degree of autonomy including self governance in religious and legal matters.

The Ottomans became known for fostering culture, cultural and intellectual advancements with Constantinople which they changed to Istanbul, emerging as a center of trade, art, scholarship, attracting talent from all across the empire.

And further, the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent marked the height of the Ottoman power.

Known for his legal reforms, military conquests and contributions to the arts, Solomon expanded the empire's borders even further, led campaigns against Persia's Safa Safavid empire and established control over territory spanning North Africa and the Middle east from Egypt to Iraq.

And this was a pretty defining moment for the Ottoman Empire and their European relations.

Although the siege ultimately failed, it symbolized the Ottomans formidable power and how they, you know, had an interest in further pushing into Europe.

Alongside these military pursuits, the Ottomans engaged with the European powers diplomatically establishing alliances with France and England and fostering trade relations that wove into their empire and kind of also fed Europe a little bit.

By the time the Ottomans attempted deeper incursions into Europe they had become a powerful and sophisticated empire which was renowned for its military strength and their architectural achievements and complex administration administrative structure.

Their early successes, cultural contributions and initial advances into European lands set the stage for a centuries long engagement with Europe that would not only shape their fate but also European history as well.

With the failure in Vienna, they still kind of shaped European history.

So what would it look like had they actually been successful?

You know, plenty of things prevented this from being a reality.

But as was the case for the other parts of this episode, let's look into what would have happened had the stars aligned in them being successful.

If the Ottoman Empire had succeeded in its conquest to expand into Europe, the continent would have resembled the kind of far reaching impact that the Mongols kind of did.

Right?

Compare just a comparison.

They did have a very similar like religious tolerance thing.

It wasn't the exact same but it would have, it would have been close to that, I guess.

The Ottoman controlled Europe for instance, would have introduced a layer at layered administrative structure that respected local customs but subordinated them to the Sultan's authority.

Now this one would have been a little more focused on overseeing everything.

It was more centralized than the decentralized Mongol type and, and also the the comparison is kind of important because whereas the Mongols kind of considered it just territory that they were taking, the Ottomans saw it as like a, like a legitimate piece of what they were building.

It was a state that they could rely on for different things like that.

They saw it a little bit differently.

So that's something to think about in religious terms.

The Ottomans tolerance policy through the millet system would have brought Islamic governance and multicultural practices to Christian Europe.

The religious diversity would have increased, but it would have been interesting because, you know, Islamic, Catholic and Protestant faiths kind of intermingling.

There would have been, there would have been some tension, but the overall governor or governance being through Islamic authority would have been the.

This is, this is the rule of the state.

Like this is what we're saying.

You can't disobey that.

But as long as you're not trying to like overthrow them, do what you want.

Now economically it would have been, would have been a little interesting because Ottomans would have shifted trade routes through places they controlled and by doing so they would have had, they had like a toll system.

So if you're moving goods through, you're essentially paying a tax as you're going through.

This would have been largely different than how the Europeans were handling things at the time and super different than how the Mongols would have done it.

But it was essentially just a way to ensure that they knew what was being moved through and kind of kept an eye on things in that way.

Culturally, Ottoman Europe would have had a lot of Islamic influences in the art and architecture.

It would have been kind of interesting seeing, you know, Gothic cathedrals next to, you know, these Ottoman mosques or, you know, calligraphy blending in with one another, like the different styles.

I think it would have been kind of have been kind of sweet actually, just to, just to think about, I mean, because there are some like really lovely buildings, you know, medieval Islamic influence, buildings that I think could mesh well with certain aspects of like medieval European things.

But yeah, militarily, Ottoman expansion would have led to an early arms race in Europe.

You know, they, they would have been panicking to defend themselves, but after they would have, they would have had to kind of adopt a lot of the Ottoman techniques, which might have been pretty interesting for a lot of, a lot of them, but might have been pretty sweet also.

Now I'm imagining like full breastplated knight with like these accents of like a, like a royal flourish of, you know, of like a 15th century Ottoman headdress.

Like, I don't know, I think it'd be sweet, but it could just be me.

Maybe that's how, maybe this is how, like fantasy art artists, like, get their ideas.

They're just like, what if I meshed this and this.

Anyway, ultimately Ottoman influence would have been a little more permanent.

It would have been an immediate.

Also, whereas the Mongols were kind of hands off, you pay us, do your thing, as long as you're still paying us kind of thing.

The Ottomans were like, would have been more focused on not assimilating, but it would have been close.

Right.

You're going to live in synchronicity with our culture and that's going to bring a lot of our people this way.

And there's going to be a lot of movement and a lot of different buildings and a lot of different art stuff going on, which I think would have been cool.

I think also being that close to the Middle Eastern cultures, I think that would have been helpful for medical and scientific advances, because at the time the Middle Eastern cultures were way ahead of medieval Europe.

So having a lot of that come over might have been super beneficial to a lot of places.

But yeah, so that's, that's the medieval section of this episode.

And now we're going to, we're going to travel from fighting people one by one to some really intense ways of, of eliminating a lot of people.

Right.

Of course, if you remember, we're going to the nuclear age.

You know, nuclear Armageddon, it's a little more effective than a Mongol horde.

I mean, maybe, I guess, I don't know.

I didn't witness one of those, but I didn't witness a nuclear Armageddon either.

Never mind.

Anyway, anyway.

Nuclear Armageddon.

What, you know what, what else can I say?

A lot of, lot of good, wholesome family fun going on.

Setting the groundwork for both of these moments.

They kind of came from the same time period.

Not exactly the same, but kind of under the same umbrella.

Right.

If you're up to snuff on your nuclear holocaust history, probably know where I'm going with this.

You know, it's the Cold War.

Following the War to end All Wars 2.0, the two predominant superpowers of the Soviet Union in the States struggled to maintain their foothold on things.

With the, you know, Germany being divided up, the communist leaning USSR was trying to influence many different nations with their eyes, with their ideals, and trying to grow their sphere of influence as well, while simultaneously gaining allies who supported their government.

Meanwhile, the United States, super.

Not into that.

The red scare and McCarthyism were in full swing.

And quickly they began to Panic as the United the USSR brought other countries in under their wing fearing that the Soviets would do the exact same thing that America was doing.

The US would support the opposition to the USSR's campaigns in places like Korea and Vietnam.

Between those there was Cuba, the revolutionary action which led to Fidel Castro taking power.

So very quick summary of events and probably a topic for another day but basically what you got to know is that at the beginning the United States and Castro pretty amicable.

But after Castro took power the United States was no longer an interest of his.

He didn't really care for them because he got what he wanted.

He quickly nationalized businesses and made the store owners, the US owners of those businesses very unhappy.

Soon diplomatic relations between Cuba and the United States were dissolved and the USSR stepped in to be the bigger brother to this new government and of course support their communistic nature.

By the time Dwight D.

Eisenhower was on his way out and John F.

Kennedy was on his way in, a plan to overthrow Castro with the use of the Cuban exiles invading and creating a revolutionary band from within was drawn up.

The infamous famed.

The infamous failed.

Not famed, that would, can't put that word right next to the other one.

The infamous failed Bay of Pigs invasion only strained the tensions even further.

This basically was a lose lose for the United States because not only did their plan fail, but it also caused Cuba to bond with Russia even more.

They felt it was only fair given the fact that the US had nuclear weapons in like Italy and Turkey.

This was alarming, right?

How could they be so sneaky?

I mean a spy plane really, that's what we're doing, no, the revelation was that the Soviets were going to be that much closer to have ready missiles that closer nuclear missiles to the United States under 100 miles from the American land.

President Kennedy and his advisors debated on how to respond.

Military action, a blockade, diplomacy were all considered.

Ultimately, Kennedy announced a naval quarantine to prevent more Soviet missiles from reaching Cuba and demanded the removal of the existing ones.

For 13 days the world held its breath as the two superpowers inched towards nuclear conflict, with both sides negotiating and signaling their resolve.

Crisis ultimately was resolved when Khrushchev agreed to remove the missiles from the from Cuba in exchange for US pledge not to invade Cuba and also a secret agreement to remove American missiles from Turkey, which may or may not have ever happened.

But you know, that's, that's what, that's what they agreed to and we're not here for the reality.

So let's look into the horrific potential of what could have happened had the United States decided against the agreement.

Right.

If the USSR had refused to remove its nuclear missiles from Cuba, could have been a pretty wide variety of consequences.

Intensified public anxiety that was already high at the time.

Catastrophic global warfare could be on the horizon.

At the least severe end of the spectrum.

The crisis would have likely intensified the anti nuclear movement.

Its public fear into, you know, would turn into strong demand for disarmament.

Growing public and political pressure could have motivated governments worldwide to pursue arms control agreements sooner, shifting the Cold War's tone and possibly curbing the nuclear arms race.

However, even without direct conflict and extended standoff would have placed severe strain on both economies as military expenses mounted and trade networks faced ongoing disruption.

Psychological impact as well on citizens would have been super intense.

Pervasive fear of nuclear annihilation would have affected daily life.

I imagine there was going to be even more duck and cover drills.

Consumer confidence, economic stability, all could have been up in the air.

This economic and psychological toll, though nonviolent, would have rippled out to impact not just the United States and the Soviet Union, but their allies as well, which would increase overall global anxiety.

Refusal to negotiate would have also widened the diplomatic rift between the United States and the Soviet Union, causing a breakdown in relations that could have made future cooperation nearly impossible.

With each side even more suspicious and entrenched.

The Cold War could have possibly became more aggressive, with both sides accelerating their influence in volatile regions.

This deterioration could have led to more proxy conflicts and dangerous buildup of arms, inching the world closer to a broader conflict.

If Khrushchev could have offered a compromise by, you know, agreeing to inspections of the missiles but refusing to withdraw them, United States might have found itself in a precarious position accepting Soviet weapons so close to this main, so close to its mainland.

Such an arrangement would have represented a loss of influence for the United States in the Western Hemisphere, likely encouraging the Soviet Union to push even further its influence down in like Latin America.

And this would.

This outcome would avoid immediate conflict, but also shift in power, especially in the Western hemisphere.

Had all diplomatic avenues failed, President Kennedy might have turned to military action.

An actual invasion of Cuba would have led to a bloody confrontation with Cuban forces likely backed by Soviet support, escalating the situation even further.

The risk of Soviet retaliation would have hung heavily on this with potential attacks on American forces in Cuba or even direct military engagement with Soviet assets, raising the danger of a broader war between the superpowers.

The crisis would have become truly severe if the United States attack on Cuba triggered a Soviet response from the Soviet response from the Soviets.

A nuclear response was the word.

A limited nuclear strike, perhaps on US Bases or allies, could have marked the beginning of nuclear warfare, something both nations feared.

Yet prepared for such an exchange could be devastating and difficult to control, likely triggering further retaliatory strikes and escalating towards full scale nuclear conflict.

The worst outcome imaginable, however is all out nuclear war.

In this scenario, both nations doctrines of mutually assured destruction would come into play with nuclear strikes launched on major cities across the US And USSR and all over Europe.

Everywhere else basically immediate devastation would be unimaginable, with millions of civilian lives lost, entire cities reduced to rubble.

Beyond the human toll, the resulting nuclear fallout could have led to a nuclear winter, dramatically altering global climates, decimating agriculture, plunging the world into a prolonged and deadly humanitarian crisis which is super fun.

Now another event which follows very similar circumstances, but instead of it being strategic placement of missiles and involves the strategic response to imminent danger.

S.

Intercontinental intercontinental intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The system reported five missiles launched towards the Soviet Union, suggesting the first wave of a potential nuclear strike.

Under Soviet military protocol, this reading should have been relayed up the chain of command to initiate a retaliatory strike as the policy dictated an immediate counterattack in the event of a confirmed nuclear launch from the United States.

However, this decision was in the hands of Lt.

Col.

Stanislav Petrovn, who was the duty officer in the Soviet Union's Nuclear early Warning center near Moscow.

Petrov was immediately skeptical.

Only five missiles seemed suspiciously low for a first attack.

Like first strike, right?

A US Attack would likely involve hundreds of missiles to disable the Soviet response capability.

He reasoned that a genuine attack would not start with a limited amount of missiles like that.

Additionally, there had been known malfunctions in the Soviet radar system before, so he cautiously doubted the reading.

Rather than immediately reporting it as a confirmed attack, the responsibility weighed heavily on him.

Miss.

Miss Inter.

Man.

Misinterpreting an Attack would mean failing his country, while mistakenly confirming a false alarm would mean unleashing global nuclear war.

You know, pretty, pretty fun choices to be made.

Petrov made the courageous decision to choose to trust his instincts and reported it as a false alarm rather than escalating it any further.

In the aftermath, it was determined that the alert was indeed a malfunction.

Sunlight reflecting off of clouds had triggered a misreading in the early warning system satellites, leading them to detect non existent missile launches.

Petrov's decision to question the system's accuracy prevented a full scale nuclear response and very likely saved the entire world.

So way to go, Way to go Stanislav Petrov.

Although his actions were kept largely secret for many years, his choice eventually came to light and is now considered one of the most remarkable examples of personal judgment averting global catastrophe.

I don't know how many examples there are of that, but I mean I, I appreciate his work.

In later interviews, Petrov downplayed his role, saying he was just doing his job.

However, his decision exemplifies the razor's edge on which the Cold War tensions balanced on and the vital role individual discretion could play in.

Even in systems built on ironclad protocols.

Probably one of the most important decisions in recent history.

Had he done what his instructions were and reported it up, things could have been very similar to the Cuban Missile crisis.

What if there is a potential that had he followed the script, you know, had done the thing, they still would have figured out that it wasn't real.

Because that is an early warning detection system.

They still have potential to see it from various other things.

So there is a potential that it could have stopped at another section, but you know, let's just say it didn't.

For, for fun, you know, the tensions were already super high.

Granted this was kind of towards the tail end of the Soviet Union, but that also might have made them more likely to do something crazy.

They would have launched their own missiles and then the United States would have seen their own.

They had their own early warning systems.

So then they would have launched a bunch of missiles.

You know, you fire five, we fire ten, then you fire a thousand or whatever is, that's, that's the mutually assured destruction model, as it were.

Once Petrov reported report reached, Soviet military leadership, like I mentioned, probably would have retaliated pretty, pretty quickly.

They would have more than likely seen the first five as just like a first wave.

I mean, I am with him though.

I mean if I saw five nukes coming for Russia, like you're any way more than that dude, that's a lot of land.

So you under packed?

Yeah.

So that they would have sent back and back and forth and it would have been the worst game of racquetball ever.

Now as missiles would have been flying through the air, it would have thousands, thousands of nuclear warheads all over the planet.

Human toll, death toll would have been astronomical.

And then not just from the blast, but the radiation and fires that would have spread across North America, the Soviet UN all in Asia.

The effects, you know, extending far beyond the initial blasts.

Detonation of all this warheads would have put a bunch of smoke into the air, a lot of soot into the air, potentially blocking out the sun, creating a nuclear winter.

As mentioned, like in the missile crisis section.

This could last for years in this new frozen world.

Crop failures and famine would be widespread and it just would have kept getting worse and worse.

Political sections would have completely collapsed.

Survivors would have had to make their own kind of way in a various amounts of different ways.

Not great ones either.

Blast zones would have like immediate impact zones obviously in shambles.

But places far from blast zones would have had their own ripple effects coming out.

Humanity's progress would have been set back centuries.

Surviving population struggling to adapt to harsh radioactive world would face challenges much like those would it had it gone to the like.

The Cuban Missile crisis would have been up.

Petrov's decision ultimately to pause, question the data, trust his own gut over the machine driven protocol spared the world from just a calamity like no other.

Although on a positive note, we could have hung out with dog meat, which is, which is awesome.

That's a fallout reference if you're not familiar.

Dogmeat is the wasteland's bestest boy.

So ultimately tons of super fun things could have happened.

Not a lot of positives to take away from all these, other than maybe the religious tolerance in a Mongol controlled Europe would be pretty interesting I think specifically just the lack of like religion being used as a method of controlling people like in medieval Europe.

Specifically like having the power structure be outside of the church would have been pretty interesting.

They would have been free to be religious, but it wouldn't have been weaponized like it was in a lot of ways.

Also imagining a Mongol led campaign to establish colonies in the new world.

First of all, if their boats ever make it, they are very bad at mounting sailing expeditions.

But like they get to the New World.

And then they get to interact with the indigenous people there.

You know, I mean, native tribes and the Mongols hanging out.

It'd be pretty cool.

When the.

When.

When the Spanish arrived and introduced horses to the New World, the indigenous people took to them very well.

And they also really loved their bows.

Synchronicity, you know, the Mongols and then might have got along really well.

Who knows?

Maybe.

Maybe it would have been real dangerous.

We're never going to know, unfortunately.

But I also do want to make a note that when I'm talking about the Mongols in this way, I'm not ignoring how insanely brutal they could be.

Right.

I think that that happens a lot when people are looking about things in.

In history on different civilizations.

I found a lot of it when I was researching the Maya.

I know that just a lot of diluting the ferocity of some of these places and people kind of painting them as this otherworldly, peaceful society.

No society is completely perfect or peaceful.

Right.

Every group of people who have ever existed has made at least one other group of people very nervous about it.

Something to keep in mind not only for this episode, but just kind of, you know, for life in general.

I think the platitude of, well, you know, there's bad guys on both sides or anything similar to that, kind of pointless, right?

We know.

It's obvious.

Unless you live in blissful ignorance of sunshine and rainbows, I think it goes without saying that there are bad people in every group.

Maybe I'm just cynical.

I don't know.

Who knows?

Many rant aside, I do think topics like this are hard to discuss because conceptualizing potential events or outcomes of things isn't always easy.

Things I spoke of here are not absolute.

You know, it's all hypothetical.

And I just want to reiterate that I'm not.

Like, this is exactly how it would happen.

Like, this is just some guesses, some.

Some hypotheses, right?

I do find it interesting that things like the bubonic plague had such a massive impact on the world we already live in.

Right?

Like, it did a lot of damage, but it could have went even farther.

And like, this is where we ended up kind of interesting.

It's also kind of weird because they all seem to kind of pay off for us, right?

This is like if you live a good life, I guess.

I mean, obviously there's people who don't.

We know that.

But just kind of an interesting thing.

But anyway, that's it.

That's all I have for you on this episode.

What are some things you found interesting?

What what are your own hypotheses on what I talked about?

Do you believe that it would have happened, how I set it up?

Do you have any alternate theories?

Do you have any other what ifs that you'd like to ponder or have me ponder for you in a future episode?

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See you next time.