John Moran analyzes an account that has a 40% decline in traffic and 81% drop in sessions by socials. He dives into the account to figure out what’s causing the declines. He also discusses why running Performance Max campaigns and Meta Ads for this particular business might be causing more harm than good, the potential risks and benefits of different advertising strategies, including the importance of balancing profitability and scale. He then suggests alternative strategies and where to focus on to achieve business growth. Listen to this episode to learn more.

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0:00 Intro

0:19 When Performance Max with Meta Ads Might Be a Bad Mix for Your Advertising Efforts

6:50 Decline in new customers

13:27 Strategies recommended by John

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So what the Facebook in app shows is, wow, we spent 81 percent

2

less and made 41 percent more

revenue for the lack of top line.

3

Yeah.

4

So this is going to be a slow death

5

What other marketing does he run facebook?

6

yeah, and asked for access to his

facebook so that Pleasant and I can

7

look at What they're doing because

he said in the meeting I had with him

8

that they've switched from outbound to

mostly remarketing in their facebook

9

So we wanted to go in there and double

check he's only running PMAX in there.

10

So we've talked about relaunching standard

shopping and seeing what, but pending

11

what they're doing in Facebook, cause

we want to actually see it for ourselves

12

and not just take his word for it.

13

not only did he switch heavily

to remarketing, he also,

14

it looks like pulled back.

15

This 30 days compared to previous 30 days.

16

So there's an overall drop of

24%, which I would imagine, did

17

that sometime around March 20th.

18

Yes.

19

we met the end of April,

for the first time.

20

And he had mentioned recently

switching over the PMAX.

21

So there's a 40 percent loss in traffic

and 81 percent drop in sessions by social.

22

let's just say he had

a UTM whoopsie daisy.

23

that would mean that direct

would go up and it's not.

24

So it's definitely a pullback.

25

which pullback search, pullback,

direct pullback, direct sales.

26

now search is up here, but the reason

why Facebook has now attributed is

27

they did go probably towards more

remarketing, so what the Facebook in

28

app shows is, wow, we spent 81 percent

less and may 41 percent more revenue.

29

For the lack of top line.

30

So this is going to be a slow death,

but the bad part is now it's going to be

31

solely up to Google to bring in the new

traffic, which we're using a platform.

32

That's just going to try

to hover at that point.

33

this is also reducing

sales here that we can see.

34

So there needs to be a

prospecting source somewhere.

35

and I think that the prospecting source.

36

my opinion would be I would be going

after the angle of election season and

37

instability in the socioeconomic climates.

38

that would be my recommendation.

39

How's the pricing competitively?

40

from what I understand, it's, fairly

competitive not like the cheapest,

41

So they sell Dura Steel is the brand

they just started putting on Amazon.

42

Apparently.

43

But I couldn't find anything with

their company brand, within Amazon,

44

but he said they're on there.

45

I'm hoping to clear that up with him.

46

Gotcha.

47

Gotcha.

48

Gotcha.

49

So water distiller, distill water

machine, classic distiller, distill.

50

So I think one of the reasons why

we're seeing a stability is obviously

51

it's a lot of good cold traffic.

52

No, one's really looking

for the brand name.

53

but right here, best hit

the fan water filter.

54

This is that pepper thing right there.

55

this is definitely gonna be

a prepper type of mantra.

56

I would share this with them.

57

Just say, hey, by the way,

with remarketing pulling back,

58

we're having obviously a lot

of good success with Google.

59

Now, our cold traffic in Google is good.

60

That's why, with a 40 percent

reduction in Google Meta traffic are

61

orders didn't decrease, but there is

a increase in return customer rate.

62

So this could be a false positive for

the short term until that atrophies

63

because returning customers can

only buy so many water filters.

64

so the data is already starting to support

our theory about what's going to happen.

65

Yeah, so if we look at new customers,

since March 21st, this is when

66

they switched to remarketing.

67

February 4th, March 20th.

68

Okay.

69

is what we get to compare that to.

70

So 1.

71

they lost 26 new customers.

72

between them turning off meta and going

to remarketing, but since they lost 33

73

new customers, it was falsely added up to.

74

now we have a few

existing return customers.

75

And it looks like only just recently here.

76

I think that's one of the

reasons why since the 28th, we're

77

probably having some good success.

78

Yeah.

79

There's your success here.

80

Success here.

81

81 percent more orders, but that came

from all the returning customers.

82

it could have been a restock.

83

It looks like they're using a lot

of in app ROAS to be like, yeah,

84

we're successful, but they're

missing the forest for the trees, but

85

they really are stuck on the ROAS.

86

Yeah.

87

Yeah.

88

That sounds about right.

89

That's why this thing's all flip floppy.

90

I would draw them a bigger picture.

91

Say if we take a step back and we don't

take any sort of in app platform metrics

92

and distill what's going on here.

93

they'll like that joke.

94

Then we look at the loss of their

cold traffic has done, a small

95

number, in decline of new customers.

96

It's been recently made up

with existing customers.

97

But those existing customers will

become less valuable over time because

98

they're going to be doing replacement

filters, which is also why they probably

99

saw a spike up in return customer

rate and the drop of their AOV by 38%.

100

and those are gonna be like, gasket set

parts, and plastic lids, and a switch.

101

So they're a couple of takeaways

is losing core product,

102

sales, new customers are down.

103

33 from the switch to remarketing.

104

What does Google say

in the last seven days?

105

I would imagine that's probably

showing some, Dura still distiller

106

parts that might be coming from

their existing customers or people.

107

People have purchased from them before

that forgot about water distillers.

108

com because that is a very generic

name and not only resellers are

109

not investing in their brand.

110

so that makes a lot of sense,

especially if jurors still

111

went out of stock somewhere.

112

This is like woohoo free existing

customers that probably didn't

113

buy from us before they had a

backlog issue several months ago.

114

They ordered well in advance

because they had been having

115

procurement issues for a while.

116

Makes sense.

117

It's cool when you come

and take a step back.

118

And once you start, looking at these

things, I would say, in app ROAS on meta

119

is most likely up 100 percent or more.

120

that'd be a good question.

121

In app ROAS is most likely

100 percent or more.

122

Yes.

123

But that's also because we're

No hemorrhaging our own clients.

124

return customer rate is up 30 percent

which is offsetting the top line

125

metrics to a, slightly down trend.

126

But our future business is at risk.

127

if you're measuring business

performance year over year.

128

This is down 30%, down 50% down

30% down 13% because that's up 42%.

129

so this is what's interesting

is this here is floating.

130

That these here are all metrics.

131

So these are your correlating metrics.

132

Your return customer rates up

'cause they're buying refillables.

133

And because of your own customers

it's up because, they, they trust you.

134

But our top line is we're going to

see a slow decay and that's why year

135

over year, this will say, we need

a cold traffic, channel to push.

136

Now performance max can probably do that.

137

it may not, It's a full build.

138

It's a Okay.

139

What is enabled?

140

Standard chopping is not

really the answer here.

141

it could be because they're going to be

doing a lot of remarketing on meta, but

142

I think that their meta was actually

performing better than what they saw.

143

They were just judging it wrong.

144

actually let me do that

and do this theoretic.

145

so if we did January to the 19th year

over year, What was going on between

146

October, 2023 and December, 2023.

147

Do you remember?

148

Oh, I don't know.

149

I just took over and I don't believe

we touched on that during the meeting.

150

it might have been the stock issues

that, that was a kind of a pervasive

151

issue for them for a little bit.

152

but yeah, from a marketing standpoint,

I know they've been reducing their

153

budget gradually from, I think

they were at 8, 000 and they've

154

been trickling down to 3, 500.

155

so that might be a factor.

156

Yeah, it looks like when everything

was being pushed, especially on

157

Facebook, Your direct is going to go up.

158

Your social is going to go up.

159

So your search is going to

go up, just not as much.

160

Cause it's going to be the return brand.

161

but this is year over year, fourth

quarter, 23 to fourth quarter, 22.

162

Now, fourth quarter is going to be always

like, the land of milk and honey, Oh,

163

that's a burkey ver like, competitor.

164

I would definitely push less

hard into metal remarketing.

165

That was too big of a shift.

166

. Your in-app.

167

Rowa is gonna look amazing

until you're out of business.

168

so that'd be the first thing to say is,

Hey, trying to do good by your business.

169

This is not something that is sustainable.

170

Half the traffic is not sustainable.

171

I would say, and then make the

mention that the mix between meta

172

and performance max is performance.

173

Max is going to remarket heavy and if

metas remarketing heavy remarketing

174

is always going to have a better row

as just like brand, it always will

175

just at very much lower volumes.

176

it's almost a fact of do you

want high profitability or do

177

you want, scale or a mix of both?

178

If you want high profitability,

then just hang tight here.

179

if you want profitability and scale, we

need to start pushing more cold traffic.

180

The sources that the source as to which

I would recommend would be in meta

181

just because it's an election year.

182

And this is where we're going to

start to see more prepper mentality

183

closer and closer to the election.

184

There's also Trump is on trial.

185

he is of the base.

186

I would say that this is

probably going to mostly with.

187

And the results of those trials could

cause potential for the theoretical,

188

socioeconomic or not socioeconomic,

but just the social climates really.

189

so I think he may be missing a mark on

capitalizing his base, during probably one

190

of the most important times of the year.

191

Yeah.

192

so even if we just don't put all back

into where, into there, but I would say

193

that's, that would be the angle I would

begin to test and then watch top line.

194

there's, you can see extreme correlations

between their shifts and what they've

195

been making now, what in a bro as

potentially would look like, but what's

196

actually going on in this business.

197

What I really want to do is, yeah, I

really wanted to get us that access to

198

facebook so we can take a look and then,

hopefully softly convince him to let

199

us take over as meta so we can do this.

200

All together in house instead of trying

to fight with his meta people and

201

fight with him and, that's the goal.

202

the thing I would say is, hey, if

you're going to do all remarketing,

203

why don't we just do all brand?

204

You're going to have, TEDx's

across the board easy.

205

Now, no one ever find you again, but all

of that returning customer every day,

206

we're going to go down to the 30 percent

of people that are left, which is fine

207

because apparently Google can go down only

to 50 percent of the people that are left.

208

So why don't we just make the full shift

in there and just, ride out that high

209

amount of volume until, we part ways.

210

would honestly ask him that, just

say, Hey, not to be exaggerated,

211

but if we're 50 percent of the

meta traffic, why don't we cut out,

212

50 percent of the Google traffic?

213

we're going to be down a hundred

percent year over year, but

214

it'd be extremely profitable.

215

No, I don't want to do that.

216

we've already made one of those changes.

217

So I'm asking, I'm curious

as to why that's okay.

218

We were halfway there.

219

So all it is to be said is when

you poise those questions, you want

220

to get them thinking differently.

221

Looking at Navarro, I'd be like, crap,

we can do the same thing on Google.

222

All I have to do is just go after your

brand name and then boom, amazing results.

223

Yeah, we're already 50

percent of the way there.

224

If we go a hundred percent of the way.

225

Yeah, you cut out 77 percent of your

traffic and make, 50 percent of the sales.

226

Great.

227

that's pretty cool.

228

Look at that.

229

You look at how much profit there minus

77 minus 53, that 20 percent right

230

there is just pure cash in the bank.

231

Why would we do that again?

232

I don't want to do that.

233

so why don't we think about how

to slowly push rather than just,

234

cut off one leg in a marathon.

235

Yeah, lots of work.

236

Thanks, John.

237

You got it.