Bullied by Schick & Banking on Raum: The St. Pauli Blueprint

Justin Crozer: 00:00:19

Well, they say football is a game of extreme highs and extreme lows.

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After five straight wins and feeling

absolutely invincible, we took a

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massive reality check last weekend.

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Welcome back to RBL Talk, the only

solo podcast dedicated to breaking down

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the tactical heartbeat of RB Leipzig.

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I'm Justin, and I know a lot of

you are hurting after this one, but

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that is exactly why we are here.

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We don't just talk

about the masterclasses.

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We break down the missteps in

all their agonizing detail.

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Let's look at the big picture

before we pull up the tactical cam.

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That four-one defeat at the BayArena

hurts, and there's no sugarcoating it.

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But if you step back and look

at the Bundesliga table, we are

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still sitting in third place.

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Stuttgart and Hoffenheim are

still in our review mirror.

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Even the gap has closed slightly.

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The five-game winning streak is

now over, but the season objective

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of securing that Champions League

spot is absolutely still intact.

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Now, it is entirely about how

Ole Werner and the boys respond.

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But to understand how we

respond, we have to understand

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exactly how we were dismantled.

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Let's step off the pitch and get into

the microscopic details of this four-one

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loss to Bayer Leverkusen, because this

wasn't just a bad day at the office.

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This was a structural dismantling.

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Last week on the show, I asked

you all a crucial question.

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Do we stick to our aggressive high line

to try and choke them out, or do we drop

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10 yards deeper to protect ourselves

from their terrifying transition pace?

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Ole Werner chose to roll the dice.

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He kept the high line, and Leverkusen

made us pay the ultimate price.

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When I pulled up the Sofa Score data

this morning, the numbers were sobering.

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The idea that we were going to go

into their building and dictate

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the tempo completely vanished.

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Leverkusen held 55% possession,

which is rare against us.

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But what they did do with that

possession was terrifying.

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They generated a massive four

point four two expected goals.

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They had 23 total shots compared to our

14, and an unbelievable 21 of those shots

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came from inside our own penalty area.

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They essentially set up camp

in our box, generating 10 big

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chances across the 90 minutes.

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The timeline of the game tells the

story of our shattered mentality.

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We actually held firm

for the first 20 minutes.

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But at the 25-minute mark,

Patrik Schick broke the deadlock.

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But the real backbreaker, Nathan Tella

finding the back of the net in the 45th

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minute, right on the stroke of halftime.

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Going into the dressing room down

two-nil against a team that manages

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the ball this well completely

changes your tactical reality.

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To figure out how they generated

21 shots inside our box, we

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have to look at the wide areas.

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The game was empathetically lost on

the flanks and in the engine room.

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Alejandro Grimaldo and Nathan Tella put

on an absolute masterclass out wide.

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Grimaldo pulled a 9.0

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rating.

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Look at his carrying data, over

200 total meters carried, with 120

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meters of pure forward progression.

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Tella managed him with a 9.2

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rating, adding a goal and an assist.

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They completely torched our fullbacks.

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Ridle Baku and Max Finkgräfe had a

nightmare trying to contain them.

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Finkgräfe managed exactly zero clearances

and won only a single ground duel.

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Baku was dispossessed 10 times.

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They were pinned back, isolated,

and completely bypassed.

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And because our flanks had

collapsed, our midfield was

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structured to the breaking point.

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Exequiel Palacios and Alex Garcia ran the

engine room for Leverkusen flawlessly.

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Garcia completed 96% of his

passes and grabbed an assist.

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Palacios completed 94%.

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They were untouchable.

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On the flip side, our usual

midfield generals were suffocated.

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Nicolas Seiwald only managed

42 touches before being

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subbed off in the 65th minute.

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Xavier Schlager fought hard, but

his carrying distance was halved

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compared to the Union match.

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Even Yan Diomande, who was

crowned the MVP last week, was

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brought crashing down to earth.

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He tried to force the issue, carrying the

ball 188 metres, but he was swallowed up.

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He lost possession 16 times and won an

abysmal one out of nine ground duels.

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Tapsoba and Andrich just physically

bullied him every time he tried to turn.

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Our entire build-up was fractured.

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Going into this match, we highlighted

the ultimate battle in the penalty

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area, Patrick Schick versus Willi Orban.

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We said that if Orban could command his

area and match Schick's physicality,

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we could cut off their central threat.

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I hate to say it, but Patrick

Schick empathetically won this duel.

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He was utterly unplayable.

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He didn't just walk away

with the hat-trick, he

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accumulated a staggering 2.84

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XG all by himself on nine total shots.

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But here is the stat that hurts

the most for a centre-back.

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Schick won five of his seven aerial

duels and seven of his 10 ground duels.

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He bullied our backline, acting

as the perfect target man to bring

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Teller and Ibrahim Maza into the play.

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To be fair, Willi Orban, he

fought like an absolute warrior.

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He logged 12 defensive contributions,

five crucial clearances.

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He won the majority of

his own aerial duels.

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But with Grimaldo and Teller ripping

down the wings and the midfield pivot

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unable to stop the bleeding, Orban

was constantly dragged out of position

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into desperate, unwinnable situations.

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Schick was the hammer and the

wing-backs were the scalpels.

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Orban was just left trying to plug

a dam that had already been burst.

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Before we move on, we have to talk

about Ol Werner's half-time mystery.

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He subbed off El Chadaille Bitshiabu

at the break for Castello Lukeba.

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Now, if you look at the first 45

minutes, Bitshiabu was arguably

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our best, most secure defender.

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He had a 7.4

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rating, completed 100% of his 29 passes,

lost possession exactly zero times,

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and had five crucial blocked shots.

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Taking him off felt bizarre.

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Was it a knock?

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Was it desperate tactical roll

of the dice from Werner to try to

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find a more progressive passing

from the back with Lukeba?

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Whatever the intent, it backfired, as we

shipped two more goals in the second half.

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The only real bright spark in

the second half was Brajan Gruda

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coming on for Antonio Nusa.

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He brought some actual fight, creating

two big chances and grabbing the

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assist for Christoph Baumgartner's

lone goal in the 80th minute, a

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brilliant header that registered 0.93

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xGOT, but unfortunately, by

the time Baumgartner scored,

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the damage was already done.

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It's time to shake off the Bay Arena

and head into the RBL Talk segment.

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This is where we hand the mic over

to you and bring the voices of the

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digital terrace right onto the show.

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I asked for your takes on the high line,

and it is safe to say the reactions to

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this heavy defeat have been pouring in.

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First up, we have a message from

the Discord from Laz Jazzman,

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who dropped this take just as the

tactical picture was taking shape.

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They say, Regarding the defensive

strategy against Leverkusen, I think a

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lot will depend on the first 10 minutes.

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I believe that we'll start

with a high back line.

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If we can create chances and maybe

even score a goal, it'll stay this

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way until the very late in the game.

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But if we only run into counterattacks

or even concede a goal, I'm pretty sure

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that we'll pull back until the very end.

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The most important thing to

remember is that Leverkusen has

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something to lose, the chance of

playing Champions League next year.

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Therefore, I think it'll be pretty tight.

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Laz Jazzman, mate, reading this back

after the fact is fascinating because

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you hit on the exact tactical tightrope.

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Old Werner was walking.

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You were spot on about Leverkusen

playing like a desperate team

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fighting for the Champions League.

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They played with incredible

intensity, but were the reality

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devastated from your prediction

is how we reacted to going down.

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When Schick scored that goal

at the twenty-five minute

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mark, we didn't pull back.

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We kept the high line and

try and chase the game.

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And Teller and Grimaldo just

kept running into the cross

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of the space we left behind.

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It was a massive tactical

gamble and did not pay off.

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Great insight into the

pre-match mentality though.

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Next up, we have a tweet

from Grant Voges over on X.

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Grant says, "I think they missed

Raum's leadership at the back.

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Completely undone on the first goal.

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Never felt in reach past that."

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Grant, you have hit the

absolute nail on the head.

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When you look at how badly our

flanks got torched, the absence

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of David Raum was glaring.

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Max Fingrafi stepped in,

but the data is brutal.

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A five point eight rating,

zero clearances, and he only

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won a single ground duel.

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He was completely

overwhelmed by Nathan Teller.

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Raum brings a grit, a vocal

leadership, and a physical edge

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that anchors that left side.

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When we went one-nil down, you

could see the heads drop a bit,

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and that is exactly when you need

a guy like Raum barking orders and

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keeping the defensive shape intact.

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We missed him massively.

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Huge shout out to everyone on

the Digital Terrace who wrote in.

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Keep them coming because this

segment is all about your voices.

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Speaking of bouncing back, the calendar

turns to a brilliant opportunity, but

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also a massive potential banana skin.

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Next up, we are back home at

the Red Bull Arena to face St.

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Pauli.

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If you look at the Bundesliga

table right now, St.

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Pauli is sitting in seventeenth

place with twenty-six points.

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They are dead even on points with

Wolfsburg for that sixteenth place

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relegation playoff spot, and six

points adrift of pure safety.

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They have not won a match in their

last eight attempts, coming off

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back-to-back losses against Mainz and

Heidenheim, plus a five-nil thrashing

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by Bayern a thr- few weeks ago.

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Make no mistake, a team fighting

for their Bundesliga life is a

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desperate, unpredictable animal.

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They will come to our building ready to

sit incredibly deep, absorb pressure,

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and try to scrape a dirty, scrappy point

to keep their survival hopes alive.

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And history tells us they are very

good at dragging us into an ugly game.

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If you look at the head-to-head

streaks, six of our last seven meetings

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with St Pauli have seen under 2.5

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goals when we played them back in January.

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It was a frustrating 1-1 draw.

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We are undefeated in our last four against

them, but they know exactly how to congest

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the middle of the pitch against us.

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The key to this match

is going to be timing.

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Looking at the goal distribution data

for the season, St Pauli is incredibly

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vulnerable right after half-time.

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They've conceded 13 goals

in that 45-60 minute window.

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If we don't break them down in the first

half, we have to come out of the locker

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room absolutely firing to catch them cold.

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But we have to be warned, our own

late-game focus has to be flawless.

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We have conceded 14 goals this season

in the final 15 minutes of matches.

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If we let St Pauli hang around until

the 80th minute, their desperation

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could punish our late-game lapses.

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We have to be incredibly clinical,

move the ball with rapid precision,

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and kill this game off early.

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Which brings us to this week's player

watch and our key tactical battle.

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If we are going to crack St Pauli open,

the battle line is drawn between their

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defensive anchor, Eric Smith, and our

flying left wing back, David Raum.

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Let's pull up Eric Smith's numbers first.

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When you look at his season heat

map, you can see exactly how

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it dictates the game for them.

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He's heavily concentrated right

in the centre of his own half.

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He averages over 70 touches a

game and completes 93% of his

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passes in that deeper role.

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He loves to sit deep, sweep up, and

hit long diagonal balls, attempting

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over seven of those a match to

try and bypass the midfield.

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However, here is a

vulnerability we have to target.

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Under pressure, he cracks.

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Smith has two errors leading to a shot,

two errors leading to a goal, and has

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conceded two penalties this season.

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If we press him high in his own

box and force him onto his weaker

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foot, he will make mistakes.

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But to apply that pressure and

actually break down their low block,

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David Raum has to be the main man.

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Looking at Raum's data, his

season heat map is almost funny.

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He's listed as a defender, but

his heat map is painted entirely

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red in the attacking third.

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He operates purely as a left winger.

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The space against St Pauli is

going to be out wide, and Raum

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is a chance creation machine.

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He has six assists on the year,

but look at his underlying numbers.

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He has generated a staggering 12.16

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expected assists and

created 22 big chances.

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He's whipping in nearly three

accurate crosses a game.

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He's putting the ball on an absolute

plate, and our forwards just haven't been

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finishing them at the rate they should be.

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Here is the tactical

tug-of-war for Saturday.

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Raum plays high-risk,

high-reward football.

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He loses possession about 20 times a game,

trying to force those dangerous crosses.

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When he loses the ball, St.

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Pauli's Eric Smith is going to immediately

look up and try to hit his long diagonals

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right into the massive empty space

Raum leaves behind on our left flank.

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If Raum's final ball is

clinical, he will dismantle St.

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Pauli's low block single-handedly

and force Smith into panic stations.

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But if Raum is wasteful, he gives

Smith the exact ammunition he needs

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to launch their counterattacks.

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It is the ultimate tactical duel.

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Now it's time to turn

the show over to you.

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We are coming off a physically draining,

heavy defeat, and we are stepping

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right into a match against a team that

is going to park the bus and make us

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work for every single inch of space.

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So here is my question for you

on the Digital Terrace this week.

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How much do we rotate

the squad against St.

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Pauli?

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Given how exhausted the midfield looked

chasing Leverkusen, and considering

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we need ultimate creativity to break

down this low block, who has to start?

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Does a guy like Brajan Gruda, who

came on and created two big chances,

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deserve a spot in the starting 11?

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Or does Ole Werner need to send out our

absolute strongest, most established

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lineup to make a statement, regain

confidence, and secure the three points?

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Get your voice heard.

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This podcast is built for RB Leipzig fans

all over the world, and I want your takes.

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Drop your thoughts in the Digital

Terrace Discord channel, hit up the

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social media pages, or my favorite,

leave an audio message via SpeakPipe.

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You've got up to five minutes to

record your thoughts, and the most

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insightful takes will get played

right here on the very next episode.

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And if you love these tactical deep

dives and want to help keep RBL Talk

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running and the server costs covered,

please consider supporting the show.

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Check out the show notes for the support

links, the Discord invite, and other

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ways to submit your SpeakPipe audio.

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That's all for today's extended breakdown.

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Shake off the Leverkusen loss,

keep backing the lads, and

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let's get ready to dismantle St.

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Pauli.

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I've been Justin Crozer, and

until next time, bye-bye for now.

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