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Decoding Hype Cycles: Brad Garlinghouse on Crypto and Tech
Episode 211st June 2021 • Decoding Digital • AppDirect
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How can companies use technology to solve problems? Brad Garlinghouse believes it’s about embracing innovation. In this episode of Decoding Digital, he talks about his impressive career and shares insights into where growing companies commonly make mistakes. He also discusses cryptocurrency and how it will have a lasting impact on customers and businesses.

Press play to hear Brad’s thoughts on…

The Problem with Traditional Payments

“It's amazing to me that you can stream video from the space station, but if you want to send money to me in London, that's going to take days to get there and it's going to cost you a fair number. And it's like, wait, how did we end up here? Where I can do all these things on an almost instantaneous basis, but I can't move my own money from point A to point B.”

Disrupting the Middleman

“Today, if you and I were going to transact, there has to be a middleman involved. Pick your middleman, but there's a middleman everywhere. With a blockchain we’re saying ‘Hey, take out the middleman. You can still transact. You can have certainty, but you don't have to have trust.’”

The Power of Blockchain

“I think if you want to impact the most people and really put a dent in the universe, how do we reach 99%? Not, how do we get the 1% using Bitcoin for payments to 2%, 3%. No, I'm going to go work with the major institutions, the major governments. And I'm going to introduce these technologies in such a way that they can have a broad impact on a broad cut of the population—the unbanked, the underbanked—in ways that I think are pretty profound.”

Transcripts

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It's not about the speculation

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and the price speculation of

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where's the price of Bitcoin

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going. It's about how do we use

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these technologies to solve real

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problems for real customers, and

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to the extent that is delivering

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utility and there is value in

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those underlying technologies

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and underlying assets.

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That's Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of

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Ripple, a $10 billion company

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behind XRP, the world's second-

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largest cryptocurrency by value.

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Under Brad's leadership, Ripple

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has received widespread

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recognition, including being

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named to the CNBC Disruptor 50

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and recognized as a Technology

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Pioneer by the World Economic

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Forum. Before Ripple, Brad

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served in senior executive roles

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at Yahoo and AOL. For all the

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crypto fans out there, in this

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episode, you get to hear Brad's

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insights on the crypto space,

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how

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to avoid what he calls the

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peanut butter trap, and what he

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thinks is in store for the

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future of Silicon Valley. This

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is Daniel Saks, Co-CEO of

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AppDirect, and it's time to

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decode cryptocurrency and

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FinTech. Welcome to "Decoding

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Digital," a podcast for

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innovators looking to thrive in

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the digital economy. I'm your

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host, Daniel Saks, and I'll sit

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down with other founders, CEOs,

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and change-makers, to decode the

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trends that are transforming the

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way we work. Let's decode. Brad,

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thanks for joining us today.

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Thank you for having me, Dan.

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Good to see you. Happy

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quarantine to the extent that it

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doesn't seem too strange.

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Thanks. I think the last time we

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met, we had nice coffee and

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maybe some breakfast, which we

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won't be doing today.

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Well, coffee, but

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remotely.

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Yeah. We can do that. Before

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joining Ripple, you worked at

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early Internet powerhouses,

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Yahoo and AOL.

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At the time, they were

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powerhouses. Less so today.

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Maybe that's a good leading

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question. Tell us about what

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drew you to those companies?

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Maybe also from an observation,

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what went wrong?

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I'll start with Yahoo. My thesis

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joining both companies is quite

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different. Yahoo, I joined it

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the end of 2002, beginning 2003.

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That was a dark moment of the

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Internet's evolution. The dotcom

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crash had happened. Measuring

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these things by market value,

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Yahoo's stock price, I think

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that the market cap of the whole

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company was a few billion

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dollars, and had a couple of

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thousand employees. It

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definitely had gone through a

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lot. My viewpoint generally was,

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on the hype cycle, people got

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too excited about what's going

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on the Internet, and the despair

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cycle, people gotten way too

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skeptical about what was going

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on with the Internet.

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Fundamentally, I felt the

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Internet was changing the nature

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of how information is

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transmitted, and it's super

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obvious now, nearly 20 years

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later. At the time, it felt

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Yahoo had the opportunity to be

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one of the most substantial

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Internet companies. What went

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wrong? That's a longer Yahoo

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story which we'll probably spend

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some time on as we talk today.

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People forget that in 2005, 2006,

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Google was barely on the scene.

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Gmail had launched. Gmail is

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really Google's second product,

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the only thing that they had

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researched. Yahoo was, what was

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at the time, a big deal.

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It was a great

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experience. It felt it was an

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amazing group of people. The

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alumni network from that chapter

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in my life was extremely strong.

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Initially, I had a guy named

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Mike Speiser reporting to me. I

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got Stewart Butterfield

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reporting me. I got Scott

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Dietzen, the CEO of Pure Storage,

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reporting to me at various times.

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Jeff Bonforte. A really

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interesting group of people that

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went on to do frankly more

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interesting things than I

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have gone off to do.

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Yahoo, I think lost its way, and

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we can talk more about that.

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AOL is a totally different

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animal. AOL, I joined with a

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thesis that this massive

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audience. 100 million active

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monthly users was using AOL when

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I joined in 2009. They had a lot

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of cash and it was spinning out

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of Time Warner. This is the

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post-Time Warner mergers. I spin

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out AOL. It's got a lot of cash.

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It's got a lot of visitors.

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Let's reinvent what AOL is. I

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got very excited with that

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entrepreneurial opportunity to

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say, "Hey, we've got all these

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users, and the audience, it's

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there. If we can introduce them

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and engage them in new ways,

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that can be compelling." I now

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subscribe, more so than I did

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then, to the Warren Buffett

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saying of, "Most turnarounds

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don't turn." It turns out that

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in this case, that was certainly

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the case. It was a really hard

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journey. I was traveling back

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and forth. The headquarters are

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in New York City, working for a

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guy named Tim Armstrong, and

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finally said, "Look, this is

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tough," and decided to pull the

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parachute and look at something

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more local. Anyway, those are a

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couple of starting thoughts on

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those early Internet powerhouses.

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What lessons can you take from

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that to, let's say, traditional

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businesses that are looking to

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digitally transform and embrace

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innovation in a new way for the

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first time to move into the

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digital age and hopefully become

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a growth player in the industry?

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I've two thoughts on that. One

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is, you have to be really clear

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about what you're trying to

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achieve. I remember I'm sure,

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Dan...Well, this may be before

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you got as involved in

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than I am.

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Back in the late '90s, '97, '98, '

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99, there was this phenomena of

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bricks and mortar retailers

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adding a .com to their name as

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if like that was a digital

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transformation. By the way,

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their stock price would go up

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when they did that. It's just

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like, "Oh, boy." I

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think it missed the point.

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Understanding where you're going

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and understanding what outcome

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you seek, I think having clarity

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about that going in will help

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enable a robust digital

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transformation. Some people

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just say, "Hey, we're going to

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hire a chief digital officer."

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That was all the rage for a

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period of years. You had all

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these companies, "Hey, we got

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our chief digital officer, but

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what does that mean? What were

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they empowered to do? How are

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you going to measure? What are

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their OK hours that we care

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about?" The second thing I

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would really push on is focus,

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focus, focus. Be clear about

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what outcome you're seeking, and

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then focus, focus, focus.

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Certainly, this was true at

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Yahoo and one of the things that

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became well known for is I wrote

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this document called the "Peanut

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Butter Manifesto." The Peanut

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Butter Manifesto was really

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talking about how Yahoo was

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trying to be all things to all

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people. I did this exercise at a

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leadership off-site. I remember

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where we were when we did this

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at one hotel down in San Pedro.

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About 30 or 40 people in the

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room, and I said, "OK,

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everybody's got a piece of paper

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in front of you. On that piece

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of paper, I'm going to say a

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brand. When I say the brand, I

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want you to write what word

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comes to mind." At the time,

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again this is back in 2005 or

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2006. I would say, "eBay."

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People would say, "Auctions." I

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would say, "PayPal." They'd say, "

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Payment centered." I'd say, "

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Google." At the time, it was

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just search. I would go through

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five or six of those. I would

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say, "Yahoo," and I'd say, "No,

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don't say it out loud. Just

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write it down." We would go

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around the room and ask people

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to share what was the word that

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the Yahoo brand represented.

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What would happen is you go

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around the room and some people

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would say, "Sports." Some people

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would say, "Fantasy." Some

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people would say, "Search." Some

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people would say, "Mail." Some

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people say, whatever. The point

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I try to make is, if we as a

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leadership team are confused

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what the Yahoo brand represents,

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certainly our consumers are also

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going to be confused about what

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the Yahoo brand represents. To

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me, that was the point of The

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Peanut Butter Manifesto. If we

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aren't focused on some specific

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thing, we're not going to be

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successful at anything. We're

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going to be very average at

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everything. As companies decide

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to focus on certain things to be

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the best in the world at search,

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then we're not going to win that.

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There are a lot of things that I

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think Yahoo could have done

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better in retrospect, but that

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was certainly one that we didn't

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handle perfectly. If you're

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trying to kick off a digital

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transformation, one, be clear

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about what outcomes you want.

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Two, focus, focus, focus, and

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don't let the new bright shiny

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object interrupt you from that

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focus. That's true for

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entrepreneurial endeavors as

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well.

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Tell us about the origins of

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cryptocurrency? How did it

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evolve? Why did you join Ripple?

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I'm not the best person to give

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you the first part of that

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question, the origins of

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cryptocurrency. I didn't get

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involved with crypto deeply

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until I was at Ripple. I did own

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Bitcoin already when I joined

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Ripple. I had been exposed to

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crypto a bit before then through

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a good friend of mine who sadly

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has passed away, Dave Goldberg.

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Dave knew that I was an angel

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investor in various companies,

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and said, "Look, Brad. Whatever

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you usually write in check for

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into an angel invest, you should

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buy that much worth of Bitcoin,

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and to think about it that way."

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I was like, "Dave's smart guy."

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I like him, and he badgered me

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into it. To my point, the way I

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think about the origins of

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crypto, it really was born of

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this idea during the financial

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crisis of 2009, 2010, that the

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banks are bad for society. An

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idea that we shouldn't trust

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government to manage currency.

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There are certainly examples

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where that bears truth to that.

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Even many in the crypto

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community, in those earliest

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days, were very libertarian in

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their kind of, "We want to take

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anonymity back. We want to be

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able to control our financial

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lives with anonymity." A lot of

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those things are key tenants of

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the origins. When I had

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purchased Bitcoin, I thought

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that those are really

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interesting, but I think the

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idea that we're not going to

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live in a world of laws is a

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little bit...and like, "I'm not

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really buying it." I remember

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first hearing the Ripple pitch

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in 2015, maybe in end of 2014,

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2015. To me, the simplest thing

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at the time was we actually want

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to work with the government. We

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want to work with the banks to

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leverage these technologies to

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impact way more people. Even

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today, with the success of

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Bitcoin, and some crypto that is

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designed for more anonymous

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transactions, it's a tiny, tiny

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fraction of the global financial

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system. If you want to impact

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the most people and really put a

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dent in the Universe, how do we

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reach 99 percent, not one

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percent? Not, how do we get the

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one percent using Bitcoin for

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payments, to two percent, three

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percent? It's like, "Look, no,

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I'm going to go work with the

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major institutions, the major

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governments. I'm going to

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introduce these technologies in

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such a way that they can have a

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broad impact on a broad cut of

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the population, the underbanked,

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in ways that are profound." We

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all have to remind ourselves

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it's not about the speculation

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and price speculation of where

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is the price of Bitcoin going?

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It's about how do we use these

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technologies to solve real

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problems for real customers. To

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the extent that it's delivering

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utility, then there's value in

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those underlying technologies

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and underlying assets.

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On the speculation side, shortly

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after you joined Ripple, Ripple

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co-founder, Chris Larsen, didn't

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his network spike to about 60

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billion due to a huge bump in

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XRP valuation?

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I never dug into that, but yes.

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The value of crypto in, I guess,

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it was 2018, went through a

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massive, speculative frenzy,

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which, it has to some degree

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worked itself out. I still think

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it hasn't totally worked itself

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out. I only say that because

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there are now thousands of

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different cryptocurrencies. The

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vast majority of them, I'm not a

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believer. I, frankly, not

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recently, but I've said publicly

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that 99 percent of

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cryptocurrencies are probably

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going to go to zero. There's a

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small number that are at the top-

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end. I certainly include Bitcoin,

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I include Ether, I include XRP

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on that list. They have real

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value in how they're solving

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problems for consumers or

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businesses. The way Ripple

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deploys XRP into it to solve an

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institutional problem for banks,

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and that has served us well.

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That speculative frenzy

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certainly drove Chris Larsen's

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net worth way up.

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Yeah, no, it's crazy. You look

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on the cover of "Forbes," he's

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the fifth richest person

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overnight. What's into this

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crypto stuff, like in the '90s,

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Netscape IPO. That was a whoa

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moment for me. Like you say,

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it's about the underlying

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technology, right?

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I remember where I was when

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Netscape went public in '95. It

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was August of 1995. Yes, that

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was a moment of frenzy, of

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interest, and participated that

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IPO, which brought a lot of

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attention into the industry

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overall. It also, that interest,

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brought a lot of investment,

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brought a lot of attention. In

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some ways, that Crypto frenzy

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did the same thing. The number

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of smart entrepreneurs, the

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number of investors who came in

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and said...Blockchain

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technologies are quite profound

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in how they can change the

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nature of transactions. Ripple

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focused on payment transactions,

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other people were working on

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other things. At its core, the

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novelty of a blockchain is a

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little bit academic, maybe a

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little bit esoteric also. The

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novelty of a blockchain is

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simply enabling two parties to

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transact without trust, but with

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certainty. Today, if you and I

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were going to transact, there

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has to be a middleman involved.

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Now, the middleman could be I'm

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passing you a $100 note, or a $

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20 note, and it's, effectively,

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the US government, the federal

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reserve note is commuting trust

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between us as you trust that is

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worth something. Today, if you

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want a middleman transaction,

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you have a credit card company,

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you got stock transactions.

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You'll pick your middleman, but

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there's a middleman everywhere.

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A blockchain's basically saying, "

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Hey, take out the middleman."

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You can still transact, you can

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have certainty, but you don't

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have to have trust. Anybody

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who's in the middleman business,

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in financial transactions,

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blockchain technologies have the

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opportunity to disrupt that.

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Again, Ripple has said banking

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transactions, cross-border

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transactions, there's trillions

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of dollars flowing globally. In

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many ways, it's stuck on how it

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was developed 50 years ago.

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It's amazing to me that,

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literally, you can stream video

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from the Space Station, but if

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you, Dan, want to send money to

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me in London, that's going to

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take days to get there. It's

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going to cost you a fair number.

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It's like, "Wait, how did we end

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up here where I can do all these

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things almost on an

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instantaneous basis, but I can't

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move my own money from point A

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to point B?" To me, that's the

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middleman transaction, how

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blockchains can be leveraged.

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Ripple has decided to focus on

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payments, and simple cross-

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border payments. There's a whole

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bunch of middle transactions

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that could be disintermediated

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to improve speed, to improve

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cost, efficiency. Blockchain

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technologies will impact a lot

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of industries over the next 10

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years.

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You spoke to hype cycles a few

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times back with Yahoo, Netscape

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era, and then, potentially,

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again today. You also mentioned

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that hype cycles are maybe

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necessary, because they take

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esoteric technologies and make

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them more aware in the public

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light. Where do you think we are

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on the hype cycle for both

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crypto and overall tech right

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now? How do you think that will

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impact the future of work 15

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years out?

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I do think that the next two to

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three years are very bullish for

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crypto at large. That's because

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we have governments around the

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world, US government being one

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example, printing massive

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amounts of additional dollars.

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The stimulus associated with

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COVID, that's happening on a

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global basis. When that happens,

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if you print more dollars, the

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dollars you hold just became

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worthless. This is inflation.

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Over time, you are seeing people

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saying, "I don't want to hold

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dollars. I want to hold

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something that is non-

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inflationary." Crypto's a good

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example. When you go out and

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inflate currencies, fiat

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currencies, people want to hold

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non-inflationary assets. Crypto

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is an interesting new one that

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people are increasingly like, "

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Huh, that's a pretty good one."

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That bodes very well for the

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next several years. The hype

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cycle on tech, more broadly...

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Tech is in an interesting, and,

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I'll even say, a little bit of a

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frustrating and depressing spot.

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I say this as, I'll call myself,

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a veteran of Silicon Valley.

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I've been here 23 years. I've

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been a part of, as we talked

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about, some interesting

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companies, and certainly watched

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them up close and personal.

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Tech needs to take ownership for,

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both, how it has positively

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contributed to the evolution of

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society and how we interact

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together. We also need to take

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responsibility for some of the

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negative, unintended

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consequences. There are a lot of

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positives. The fact that you and

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I can have this conversation, I

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don't know where you are

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geographically, I'm in

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California. The fact that we

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can do this so seamlessly, and

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it can be recorded. It's magic.

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There's also factors that we

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look at, and we're like, "Wow,

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how is tech contributing to echo

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chambers? How is tech

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contributing to the polarization

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of, frankly, society? How is it

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being abused by bad actors?"

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When I see tech leaders not

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owning that, and not saying, "

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Hey, we didn't intend for those

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abusive behaviors, but we can

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help address them." It's

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frustrating for me as a tech

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veteran to see that happen.

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There's a powerful Netflix

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documentary called "The Social

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Dilemma" that, if you haven't

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seen, and your viewers and

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listeners haven't seen, it's

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worth listening to. For those

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of us in tech, we know some of

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the people in the documentary.

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It helps you understand some of

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what has driven where we are.

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Again, the first step to solving

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a problem is admitting you have

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a problem. When I see some of

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these tech leaders say, "Well, I

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mean, that's not our fault." I

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think, "Wait a minute, come on,

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guys." I know that the intent

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wasn't that bad outcome, but to

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not acknowledge there's been

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some bad outcomes is a little

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bit hard for me to process.

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Do you think the solution is

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policy? Obviously, congress has

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taken a very vocal stance with

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the tech leaders, trying, in

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many ways, to vilify, but also

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drive accountability. Do you

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think this becomes a policy

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issue? Is it better self-

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regulation? I agree with you on

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the "admitting the problem." How

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does this make progress in the

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next few years?

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Self-regulation on this topic

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has not worked. The evidence is

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rampant. When self-regulation

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doesn't work, I only see one

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alternative. It is for the

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regulatory dynamics in

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Washington DC to change, or by

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state, Sacramento, to enforce a

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level of accountability. If

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YouTube bills financial risk

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associated with scams on their

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platform, they're going to

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change their posture. They're

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going to change the way they

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engage on this because there is

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risk to them. Now, I'm not

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smart enough nor spend time on

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it to know exactly how to

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approach it, but I will suffice

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to say I don't think self-

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regulation is going to work.

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You've mentioned, you've worked

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with a lot of tech leaders,

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people like Stewart Butterfield

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at Slack, or you knew Dave

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Goldberg, founder of

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SurveyMonkey. In this community

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of early Silicon Valley leaders,

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what have you learned from those

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who have succeeded? Are there

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characteristics specifically of

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people that you worked with that

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outperformed versus now?

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That's a really good hard

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question. Sometimes, I see

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entrepreneurs who I think are, "

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Wow. They are so talented.

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They're so smart," and they

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don't achieve success. You say

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like, "Why? What went wrong?"

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Anyone who tells you luck isn't

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part of what drives success,

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that's not true. Luck is a

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factor. Right time, right place.

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If I were to highlight a couple

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of attributes that I value in

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the investments I have made as

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an angel investor, and as I

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think about people I like to

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hire, optimism is one. It's

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fundamental belief that you put

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any wall in front of me, I will

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find a way through it, around it,

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over it, under it. I do say to

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my kids, I don't talk with kids

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a lot, but when they say the

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word, "Can't" at home, I don't

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know what that means. I'm like, "

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Word 'can't' to me, it's not a

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word." You may choose not to. It

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may be difficult to do that, but

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can't is very rarely. They love

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to have fun and say, "You can't

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teleport into the middle of the

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sun." I'm like, "Not yet."

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I don't know how to do it yet,

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but somebody's going to figure

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it out." I don't know. It's a

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bad example. I think that in

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amazing entrepreneurs, there's a

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sense of optimism and a sense of

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like, "Can do," that is really

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powerful. The second thing that

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I was highlighting in all of

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these two, and this is going to

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sound a little bit derogatory or

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pejorative, but it's effective

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storytelling. The best

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entrepreneurs are good at

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articulating a vision,

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articulating where they see the

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world going. People sometimes

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think like, "God, they're so

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smart, but they're not good at

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storytelling." If you really

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want to be an entrepreneur and

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build a new vertical, develop a

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new category, you've got to help

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the world see what could happen,

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and effective storytelling is an

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important part of that.

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Both really impactful traits.

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Really appreciate that. I know,

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the last time we connected, you

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talked about the crypto space

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and a lot of crypto fans out

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there and people reaching out.

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Some famous wanted to get to

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know you, wanted to get to learn

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more. Can you tell our viewers

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about who and why and how?

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Right around the time I saw you,

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I had the opportunity to sit

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down for coffee with Bono & The

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Edge. They were super interested

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in what's going with crypto. I

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will say, both of them were

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quite knowledgeable. The Edge

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was super plugged in. He asked

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very specific questions, even

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about performance issues,

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different blockchain

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technologies, and scalability,

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and I was super

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impressed. Obviously, I was a

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guy who went to high school and

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graduated high school in the

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late '80s. "The Joshua Tree"

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album and U2 was the .

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For me, there's examples like

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that, that have been very cool

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opportunities to connect with

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people and talk about how these

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technologies could actually

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impact. Bono particularly has

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been incredibly generous with

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his time, his energy, his

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attention, and some of his money,

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and addressing particularly

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communities that I would

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describe as either completely

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unbanked or very much

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underbanked and how some of

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these technologies can bring

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them into the financial system

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in a way that is constructive,

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is a big deal. Those are maybe

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one example of an interesting

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opportunity.

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Got it. Fast forward 15 years,

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do you think Silicon Valley will

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still be the center of gravity

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for technology?

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Silicon Valley's dominance isn't

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going to go away. I guess, if

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you're to have a metric of

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concentration, that will change

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and the concentration will go

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down. COVID has obviously had

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an impact on a lot of cities.

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The tale for how it impacts San

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Francisco, and the San Francisco

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community might be a little bit

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longer than how it impacts New

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York City, for example. New

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York City has a broad-based

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economy. You already have some

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investment banks. They want

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their traders already back on

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desk, and there's tech there. I

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think that people will come back

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to New York City more quickly.

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San Francisco, when you have

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companies that have said -- like

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Twitter, I would highlight as

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one -- that said, "Look, you can

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permanently work remote." What

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does that mean? If 10 percent of

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people in San Francisco take

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advantage of that, 10 percent

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doesn't sound like a lot, but

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that means tens of thousands of

Speaker:

people don't move back to San

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Francisco. Don't come back. How

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does that impact, given the

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concentration of tech, as a

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major employer in the Bay Area?

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To your core question that I

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think that the concentration 15

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years from now of tech as the

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center of gravity out here in

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the Bay Area, it will become

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more distributed. COVID has

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accelerated in what was already

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happening.

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Is there a call-out technology

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or trend that you see now on the

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early precipice that you think

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is going to be game-changing in

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the future?

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I'm going to talk my own book.

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I'll give you two answers. One

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is, I do think blockchain

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technologies are still in their

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early innings, and digital

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assets are in the early innings

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for how they transformed various

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transactions. We talked about

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that earlier, but I think

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there's a lot of industries that

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will be touched by blockchain

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technologies that we haven't

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even started. The second one,

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I'm not smart enough to go into

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this industry, but I am

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completely fascinated as a human,

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by genetics and some of what's

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going on with regard to

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understanding genetics being

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able to -- I like the word

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manipulate, suggests a negative,

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but -- to be able to leverage

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these understanding in a way

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that is the betterment of the

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human experience, I think is a

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very big deal. As an

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entrepreneur, I like to get

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involved with things I feel like

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you can put a dent in the

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universe. That's what gets me up

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in the morning. Ripple has been

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an example of that. There are

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certainly companies in the

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genetic space that...Again, I

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don't know who's going to win,

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who's not going to win. If I

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were to reset my career for the

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next 20 years right now,

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genetics would be high on my

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list of being really smart. I'm

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not, but I would be interested

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in pursuing that.

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Amazing. Any last piece of

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advice you'd give to our

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listeners?

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It's great you're doing this.

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It's great you're taking the

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time as a commitment of your

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time and plan to do it. I

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appreciate you inviting me.

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Hopefully, it's somewhat

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constructive for your viewers

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and listeners.

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Thanks so much, Brad.

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Good to see you.

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On the next episode of Decoding

Speaker:

Digital.

Speaker:

Companies, as they moved to

Speaker:

subscription-based business

Speaker:

models, they now have this

Speaker:

massive new thing they've got to

Speaker:

figure out. How do I make sure

Speaker:

my customers have been onboarded

Speaker:

properly? That they're adopting

Speaker:

the products and services.

Speaker:

They're getting value. They're

Speaker:

going to stay with me. They're

Speaker:

going to grow and spend more

Speaker:

money over time. We thought

Speaker:

that would create a whole new

Speaker:

industry, and it turns out it

Speaker:

has. It's created a new job,

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customer success manager, which

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according to LinkedIn now is the

Speaker:

sixth most promising job in the

Speaker:

world. It's created a whole new

Speaker:

strategy for companies which is

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not just about sales and

Speaker:

marketing, but making sure your

Speaker:

customers are successful.

Speaker:

CEO of Gainsight, a pioneer in

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the customer success sector, and

Speaker:

a new unicorn company, Nick

Speaker:

Mehta. Thanks for listening to

Speaker:

Decoding Digital. Make sure you

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never miss an episode by

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subscribing to the show in your

Speaker:

favorite podcast player.

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To

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learn more, visit

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decodingdigital.com. Until next

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