Emily and her guest Sam Minter go almost live for primary election night, breaking down Michigan’s tight Democratic Senate race (El-Sayed vs. Stevens), Washington’s local battles from state Legislative Districts on the west and east side of the state, to Supreme Court contests, and the tension between voting your conscience or strategizing—plus real-time reactions to turnout, levy wins, and why independent candidates rarely work in WA.

Check out your ballot status in Washington State - Vote.Wa.Gov

Bill Phillips Commentary on National races - Facebook

Democrats Confront Their New Tea Party Reality- Huffington Post

Washington state primary election results 2026 - Seattle Times

El-Sayed and Stevens Project Party Unity After Divisive Race - New York Times

welcome to be here. Welcome to the Umser Podcast.

Thank you. Thank you.

I'm Emily Wicks, Emily and Everett. I am here with my friend Sam Minter, and we're doing a special election, primary election night live stream. never done this before, so we'll see how it goes.

Nice, said

See what happens. How are you, Sam? How was your day? And you know, I gotta pick on you. I

think you're

Okay.

a bad voter.

Because I wait till the last minute. You know, w well,

Or is that what you like to do?

it it is the habit that we've had. So it you know, just we we're recording this at what 7:40 p.m. Pacific time in Seattle, and the ballots are due by eight. I dropped my ballots off at the dropbox at about seven, you know, and that is typically what I've done most elections, and it's sort of like

I it it's honestly like a a a family ritual tends to be most elections where we'll do all the elections, we'll gather all the envelopes, and then we'll all go and we'll drop it off at the dropbox together. this time my wife Brandy left her ballot for me. She did it early in the day. She's like off getting her hair done or something, 'cause she wants something that'll distract her from the election.

Mm.

but and and then we we drop it off.

anything we i

Mm-hmm.

we we took care of the ballot we turned it in like basically right away and we're did not do anything day of but usually we we end up doing it day off because you know a we we're procrastinators all around but you know my theory in prev

I just do not

like that. You have to, I have to make sure I go in to vote.wa.gov or votewa.gov. I don't know what it is.

Mm-hmm.

You can find it easily, even if you put it in there wrong. And you can see that your ballot was picked up and that it was counted,

Yeah, yeah.

you know? Like I need because one year I mailed it. I mailed it early and it didn't get there somehow. And

And it didn't make it. man.

I panicked the day of elections and I had to, you know, fill out a a print a ballot.

And all of that. But

Mm-hmm.

you know, today they're like, it was counted. So the option to reprint my ballot was grayed out because I couldn't do it because my ballot

Right, of course.

was accepted. So it's such a great tool. And I was with some folks today sign waving and they didn't realize that. So it was great that like I taught someone about that. Because I was like, hey, I should check and see. And also trying to

You know, it

check and see how many ballots were returned in Washington.

My old theory back in the day, well, first of all, like really back in the day, it was all day of in-person voting, you know, I and that was a whole different story. But, you know, once I it my my theory the first few times I had the option of mail-in voting was, you know, I'm gonna wait till the last minute, because what if something changes? What if there's new news about one of these candidates and I change my mind? And, you know, I'll tell you these days, you know, no, that this is not gonna happen.

You know, like that there's not something that's gonna happen in the last week before the election that is fundamentally gonna change things so much that, you know, you know what? I'll vote for the Republican after all. No, it's n it's n it it's it's n it's it's not it's not

Yeah. No thank you.

happening. And so so yeah, I have no I have no real excuse other than procrastination and it's sort of the tradition that we all do it together at the end. But

Yeah, you know, and but you know you never know. I mean, honestly, things could happen. Like earlier earlier this year, I had a health event. I was in the hospital for a while. If that had happened like this morning, it would have stopped me from voting. Because

Exactly.

like, you know, I would be busy in the ER or something. And so

Imagine the people

in Spokane who didn't get their ballots in and their house is burned down. I mean, to go in for

Exactly.

those that are maybe watching this or hearing this and don't know, there are some huge fires in Spokane. It is really upsetting. It is really sad to see these like s suburban neighborhoods where you wouldn't think that you would get anything but like a house fire because someone left a curling iron on have been decimated to no fault of their own.

yeah, the the pictures

are horrible. but yeah,

So depressing.

the but you never know. Something could happen, so the earlier you get it in and the

Exactly.

better it the better. Don't take my example. Take Emily's.

Exactly. Don't. Yeah.

I know. I want people to vote. well, also speaking of maybe changing our minds, do you think there might be people that are on the verge of changing their minds in Michigan? at the last minute. I mean, do you like I feel like there was people that were negotiating up until the very end. This wasn't against choosing a Republican. It was be choosing between two Democrats. We have

Haley Stevens and

Well, yeah, I mean,

honestly there are lots of in every election. I mean, those of us who are like junkies for this stuff, we know what we're gonna do like years in advance. We we have very well settled opinions, we spend some time thinking about it, at least on the big candidates. I I fully admit, like this time around there there were a bunch of like nonpartisan Supreme Court races on my ballot and I'm like, I don't know any of these people. And I did

I asked my wife, who does know some of those people first, you know, which one of these people and why? And she sort of explained her thought process on each one of them and I voted. But like honestly, like on that kind of thing, like on a race I haven't been following, I could very well like not have the information and be, I don't know, like up till the very last minute. And the thing that is really hard for people who

Our politics junkies to comprehend is that for most people, it's like that for every race. They are not paying attention until the moment they're sitting at the ballot, like or very soon before. And that's why, like, you know, we still have, you know, vo voter turnout is generally pitiful. Most people don't vote at all.

Yeah, Washington State, I was just looking at the data. And it's, I mean, to me on the state side, it's 24.87%, which is low, but I feel

Mm-hmm.

like higher than 22%, which I feel like is what I've seen before, but that might be Snohomish County, our

Yeah,

average. And that is actually where Snohomish County is at. We're at 22.92%. So there is

Well, and we

are we are talking about primaries and primaries are usually lower than general and and and the off years are less than you know presidential years, mid midterms are less than presidential years, and off years are even less than that. And you know that that's all normal, but even in the best turnout we ever have, there's a huge portion that's not voting at all. And so yeah, absolutely I think in Michigan in the Democratic primary

There are absolutely a significant portion of people who made up their minds in the hour before they voted.

Yeah. it's it's gonna be interesting to see what happens. And there's a lot on the line for this primary, I feel like, both across the nation and in our state right here. but just for a variety of different reasons. What will happen in November as a result of it? We don't really know. but I would like to get your take, your real take on the race. And so for people that are

maybe not following this or like me are just really glued in today because the daily did an episode about it and i was like let's see what's gonna happen i don't like to tell people in other states what to do or what i think i just love eating popcorn watching and seeing how it works out but we have Haley Stevens running in Michigan

she has run twice and won difficult races. She served in the house, she serves in the house currently, running against new candidate, kind of anti-party, anti-establishment. Abdul El-Sayed he's coming in like the Bernie, like the AOC. and I think the big concern, like I get where people are coming from.

you know, want to they're talking about electability, right? And what that means to different people, honestly, and what what people are looking for. What do Michiganders like and honestly, who can compete? But I think the big thing that bothers me or that I think is just super concerning is how much money she is getting from AIPAC She's not just getting she's like historically has the most money from AIPAC which is as I was telling my husband trying to explain

Basically Israel. And the vibes are not good right now, to say the very least. So curious about your thoughts on electability, like what you think will happen. I don't want to say that either of them can't win, but I don't know.

So f well first of all,

I'll do the general election polls on the two matchups right now. There there have been a bunch of poll I just brought up the the the polling aggregate at 270 to win and I don't have a particular preference from them over other aggregators. They just happen to be the first that came up on my Google search. but Stevens versus Rogers right now, the polling average over a whole bunch of polls

recently is a dead tie forty four point three versus forty four point three

Rogers is the Republican. it's a dead tie,

Whereas El-Sayed versus Rogers, Rogers is ahead. 46.7 to 42.3. Now, honestly, that second one is still close. It's it's within reasonable margin of error, but it's it's a lead.

Okay. and there've been some recent polls. There was one poll showing it tied like last week. you know, there were so several showing El-Sayed ahead in that matchup as well, like in June and early July. so they're they're both close, but you could if you're gonna make the electability argument, I I always I tend to I want to look at the polls.

I want to look at what people are actually polling it at, not go by vibes of like, well, you know, he's automatically gonna do less well because people are racist and he's g you know, got an Arabic name or whatever. I show me the polls, show me the data.

I think the vibes are bad for

Haley Stevens because of AIPAC money.

Well,

i i y for

Ha ha ha.

here's the thick, they're different vibes. There's the vibes for the

They're different vibes.

primary and there's the vibes for the general. And this is the whole thing that has i is mapped out. you know, for the primary, you know, El-Sayed has been winning by a significant margin over Stevens in all of the recent polling. Now, election results so far tonight.

Have El-Sayed ahead, but by nowhere near the margins the po the polls were showing. The poll the polls had him ahead by you know seven, eight percent, some even like above ten. it right now with 38% in, he's ahead by four percent. Okay. So El-Sayed is winning.

But the question and the strategy of the whole thing, and the sort of, you know, are you second guessing yourself or whatever? Is it does look like Stevens would have been stronger in the general election. And so do you like the in within the Democratic Party, there's clearly, although, like I said, it's a lot closer than it was looking in the polls, at least so far. We still have like 60% yet to report as we're recording this. But

In within Democrats, the there has been this this anti-establishment move. There's been this very strong move of, you know, hey, the the the unquestioning support of Israel and its policies has diminished greatly. and there's a big controversy over that within the democratic side.

There's a little bit of that even on the Republican side, to be honest, but less so. and so there's the question of, you know, if you have a situation where the Democrats clearly prefer one candidate over another, but that candidate is weaker in the general election because they have a harder time getting more moderates or converted Republicans, what is the right strategy?

How do you deal with that? Like, do you is do you prefer getting, you know, okay, I got the candidate I prefer in the primary, but I end up with somebody who loses to a Republican in a general? Or do you say, you know, hey, I'm gonna s I'm gonna try to think strategically and figure out who'll win the general and maybe it's not my

My favorite candidate, but they're better than the Republicans, so I'm still gonna vote for them because they're more likely to win. And when do you think yourself into a corner and like mess yourself up because you're you're trying to double and triple guess like I it's not who I prefer, it's who do I think other people will more prefer, but you're not really in those other people's heads. And the

and the other thing that people say repeatedly on it, and sorry for yammering on, let me just finish this one last point. people say that

Pre-primary polling of the general is not really necessarily as representative as you would like it to be, because things change after the primary. Once they're definitively the candidate, then people who may be in their general election poll saying, you know, if it really is that person, I'm just gonna stay home, will decide, you know, actually, no, I'm not.

And I think that

And come home.

there is a segment of people that would just stay home if they didn't get their way. And I know like

Mm-hmm.

it would be the some of the El-Sayed folks. I would you know, if they were if Haley Stevens got through,

Well that

I feel like there'll be people that will be like, No, I'm staying home. I don't think

This was definitely

a factor in twenty sixteen. It was definitely a factor in twenty twenty four.

Yes.

This is anecdotal this is evidence and facts. But you know, I we've seen it, but I don't think that's the other way around for folks that are Haley Stevens supporters. Because I think like I would rally around I mean they they're going to have to rally around that if they wanna win the Senate. Win back the Senate. Like the these are in critical races. But I think there's a group

I mean

of people that don't give a F.

Don't give a crap about it, you know? And

That that's absolutely true. I mean and and

one thing that one thing that people have said many times before, but I think unfortunately h has not followed through in some of these years, is yeah, don't worry about like the general election when you're doing the primary. Don't try to outthink it. Just

Yeah.

vote for the person you like and then if your favorite candidate doesn't win, still go all in for whoever did win on

I have said I am going to pay attention to the polls. You know,

Mm-hmm.

it's not just I'm not just gonna vote for my favorite candidate based on like who would I prefer no matter what. I'm gonna look at who's most likely to beat the Republican. Because I figure anybody that the Democrats put out is gonna be better than whoever the Republicans put out. And so at this point, I care.

You know, I I I wanna win. And that's part of my decision making process. Even if it means the candidate who I end up voting for at the primary stage is someone who's not my ideal candidate in other ways. And now here in Washington State, we're gonna be late enough in the primary calendar for president that that's gonna be decided by the time it gets to us. But you know, but for for for this kind of thing, certainly it's hard to put myself in the

Michigan perspective. And it's also like if it's close, like here, polling shows El-Sayed is a little bit weaker than Stevens in the general election, but a little bit weaker. And still with a shot, you know?

a little bit weaker, I think, but I also think there's gonna be people that are pissed, right? you both lose and potentially pick up candidates. Like maybe Haley Stevens can get some Republican votes, I guess, at that point, but I doubt it. Like I just don't think that's gonna happen. But she will lose a lot of Abdul El-Sayed folks, you know. She will lose like some of those people will do that.

I I just think they'll be mad. and so I I don't know.

And and again, though the only

the only objective thing I can point to is the polls that are already out there in the field. But yeah, you know, and the the thing we have to think about this year too is it's not just one senator. We're in a close race for control of the Senate overall. So every Senate seat potentially matters a lot. And they you know, like honestly.

If you go back six months, nine months, the people were saying, you know, it's almost impossible for the Democrats to take the Senate. Like they'll they have a good shot at the House, but it's almost impossible that they'd take the Senate. Things have deteriorated since then for the Republicans. And now it's like, you know, the Democrats are probably gonna take the House. It's it's not a hundred percent like I've seen estimates from sixty to eighty percent odds.

For

Mm-hmm.

for the Democrats taking the House. But the Senate, Democrats i i'm like at 40%, 40% or 50%. So the Republicans are still favored for the Senate. And there's just a handful of seats at play, and every single one of them matters. And so that that almost tilts me a little bit more towards: hey, I'm gonna, I I'm just gonna vote for the one who wins. Again, I'm not in Michigan.

But that's the that's the fundamental trade-off that's there. And to me, it's like it's so much easier when it's just like, which candidate do I like better? Which one's policies do I like the best? W all of this

Yeah.

kind of stuff. but at at this point, yeah, you know, I think you have to think about the the next stage as well. But I do want it to be

driven by some sort of data or information and not just sort of vibes about how I think it will

Yeah. I mean, yeah. Just look at the polymarket. Just go on there and see what people say. JK. yeah, he just added two more points. I'm I just hope people rally around the person who is headed into the general. Like, hands down, let's win. You know what I mean? Let's win. Let's not be upset.

Uh-huh.

Well, and since you know, we talked a little bit about I was showing the live result. I don't know if will it show my other parts of my screen. Nope, it doesn't. It stays on those results. That's interesting. funny enough.

And and I'm interested,

you're you're you're you've got like slightly ahead of me. You've got forty two percent reporting on on the one you're looking at, and I'm only at

forty one, so

yeah, I just pulled up the

results and that's what came up. But it should be

Yeah, so

really shameful for Skagit and Snohomish County that Spokane County has 27.25% voter turnout. That even in a region where it's they're burning, they are voting at a higher percentage than us. Very

Mm-hmm.

disappointed with you all Snohomish County.

Pacific County

Ha ha.

is and Lewis County, 31%, over 31%. Wakayakum, I mean, honestly, it's not that hard for Wakayakum. There's only what 3,700 voters there. So, but percentage-wise, they're doing it. And they probably have to travel pretty far to get their ballot in. So there's some disappointment here. But I I wanna just

kindly talk about Spokane a little bit. I know you're not following all the legislative races, but I think because

Okay. I have not been.

your your spouse is in the legislature, this will be interesting depending on what happens.

So j just to put that out,

my my spouse is Brandi Donegie, who's

Yeah.

the state rep in the 44th. And so I am in my other window refreshing the election results, which should be shown any second now, to see what the first drop

Yeah, let me know when they come up.

is for for her primary race. It's just her and one Republican. So it's i Washington State is so weird with these things. The primary

It the t it's a jungle primary, so the top two go on to the general election, but they still have it even when they're just two. So and they're just two in her case. So it it's essentially just a preview of the general election. So

Yeah. So in the sixth, we have the sixth congress or sorry, the sixth legislative district is likely it's it's like plus 10 red. That's just me like making a number, but like just to say that it is an R district. And after redistricting, it got even more red.

So I think the last person to get pretty close in the sixth.

LD, which is like right outside of Spokane. Spokane is the third legislative district and it's like Spokane proper. It's it's all Democrats represent that area, the third district. But the sixth is like very conservative. But we have two people leaving office in the house in in the sixth. So we have a couple Democrats running in there. but we have a bunch of people going for one of the seats.

And we have a guy named Bingle who's like a real estate agent or something. he's a Republican running. You have Aaron Croft, who is running as an independent, and you have Julia Julia Payne, who's running as a Democrat. Now, I the funny thing that happened here is that

I told Julia to run for that seat because no one wanted to run there in against Bingle, essentially. But the other seat was just filling up. And I was like, you could either run as a Democrat in this seat or you can run against five other people for the other seat. And so somebody's the Aaron Croft guy is running as an independent. he's he's garnered a lot of support from various groups.

But for some reason, I just don't think we're gonna win there. And the independents think that they're like God's greatest gift. Like, and that we've like figured something out. And if we run as an independent in these areas, we're gonna win. But the fact is, like, Washington hasn't elected an independent since the year our state was formed. and so yeah.

Okay. That's a while.

And so it's just interesting. It'll be really interesting to see who moves forward in that race. But my concern is that, you know, if Julia goes forward and doesn't win, they'll be like, we should have had an independent, which, you know, is not the case. And if and I just and so like I'm a little up in the air on that seat because I'd love to I just don't think we're gonna get anyone but a Republican in the sixth. But I kinda hope Aaron gets through.

I'm sorry, Julia. I do want you to get through, but if at least women won't get blamed when he loses. That's where I'm at with it.

the Washington State results are in now. So

Okay, let's go. Let's go.

my wife's a had sixty forty.

Amazing. Well, what I didn't realize was that the person running against her, the guy owns the house next to me. Or the person she's run that's running against her.

U it's your neighbor?

It's not my neighbor, it's the landlord.

i okay. So her opponent owns the place and rents it to your neighbor.

Yes. And if you can imagine,

Okay. I understand.

do you know who lived there before?

your your co host.

Samie Blood.

Yes. And

Nice.

she didn't know either. I didn't know his last name. So I mean, how many Chris's are out there a lot, right? So I just didn't even process that. All right.

Beautiful.

Suzan DelBene. Okay, I wanted to know how Hunter Gordon did, and that makes me laugh. no offense, Hunter Gordon, but that makes me laugh.

I mean well we'll we'll look at those later because we need more information for those. Okay. Clyde Shavers is losing.

Dave Paul is winning. Way to go, Dave. Stacy Willoughby is a close, it's close.

You don't even care. Stacy Willoughby's in Okay. The twelfth

Like most of these

most of these I don't know. I know a handful of races that Brandy's been talking about, so give some background on each one when you go through it.

Okay, well I will tell you okay. Okay, sorry.

Well, I'm just processing this information.

That's okay. That's that's what live stuff is like.

Yeah. The tenth is tricky. it's always been tricky. It's represented by a Republican senator and then two house members are Democrats. they're nervous Nellies in those seats always. Dave Paul's excellent. Clyde Shavers is a very nice person, but he also has just I would say drama that that is not all his fault, but there's some drama with him. And so

that's a little concerning, but

Hm.

I think he can still make it through. I think that the numbers will go in his direction. It's not too far off. So the 10th, but Dave seems to be doing pretty well, although I'm a little bit concerned with those numbers too. I mean, at least he's on the over 50 side, but combined with the two others that are running there, that's a pretty tight race. Stacy Willoughby in the 12th. this is a huge district. There are

I mean it it includes Shallan and Monroe, which if you're not familiar with our state, those are like on other sides of the state essentially. and it also includes North Bend, parts of North Bend. So it is it goes into King County, which is also on the west side, as well as going all the way to Shallan. and so yeah.

the fires, the smoke, that's what's happening. the folks in those races have recruited money from their evangelicals raised like $300,000, which is pretty insane for a house race. So we're really concerned there. and I think Stacy has a great chance. she's well known in the community. I'm really pulling for her there. and then I'm honestly pulling for like,

Mike Steele he's a Republican, but he's the lesser of two evils of the Republicans.

Okay.

Marko Liias is doing just fine. he's senator in the twenty first. The twenty first were pretty not super concerned with. I'm really glad he's beating Riaz Khan, who

I don't know what political party he's into. He's into like just anyone who will take a photo with him, in my opinion.

Okay.

Strom's doing fine in the 21st as well. another race I wanted to follow was the Senate seat in the 32nd, where we have a sitting House member going up against a sitting senator. So Cindy Ryu is challenging Jesse Solomon. And

Cindy Ryu is kicking his butt, it looks like. Forty to thirty five percent.

Okay, nice.

Yeah. the thirty-second in the so the replacement seat for Cindy Ryu's position, Danica Noble is coming ahead, which makes me very happy. that's incredible. and then there's the Republican. So out of all the Democrats that are there, it looks like Danica Noble will be the one.

To make it through, which that gives me great joy. Because we need women in these seats. Lauren Davis is surprisingly far ahead of her opponent, who is also a Democrat. Glad to see June Robinson is doing well. Glad to see Julio Cortes This is my legislative district, the 38th. Everett Marysville and Tulalip And

Mary Fosse, sorry, she was hiding. She she's unopposed, so she's doing great. And then, all right, we're getting closer. I really want to know in the 39th. This is a generally conservative district. it's Arlington, some of Marysville, like really rural districts, or areas that has Darrington, Marblemount, those places.

Ida is doing pretty well. But she's gonna face a pretty tough general. because if you add up everybody else's, you'd want her to be more in the Dave Paul range of 50%. But happy to see that. okay. John Lovick's doing great. Brandy's up by 60% almost. April's up by over 60%. Looking good in the 44th.

Okay, Supreme Court. We'll talk about that another time. Do you not want to

She she by she

by the way, quote from her by text, she's okay with it.

That's great. She's just okay with that.

Brandy's okay with where she was.

She she she was nervous that it was gonna be a lot closer. I kept trying to reassure her, but she was nervous. But I think that's a nice healthy lead. Sixty forty is not bad.

I don't blame her for being

nervous when like frankly, like white men are like having their time right now, no offense Sam but like they're really like, you know, having their time. So I'm nervous about it too. And I'm really glad to see that she's doing well for a lot of reasons. One, I want her to be there and she's a wonderful leader. And I just need her to have that number. Absolutely.

Do you care about the Supreme Court races?

Well, I was saying earlier, like I I I think I care about it in theory, but I didn't recognize any of the names. I didn't know any of the people. I really relied on my wife's advice and the fact that she does know many of these names. Even there in some cases she was like, you know, I I don't actually all know all of them on these cases, so I relied on endorsements and other things like that.

But some of the names she knows personally and was able to tell me, this one's good because of XYZ. But of course I've already forgotten. Like, you know, I I I for for the legislative seats in the in the 44th, I've met all three Democrats, you know, I I've met Suzan DelBene for the congressional side, you know, I've met some of these other candidates. But a lot of these other like the the these these races, I don't know these folks. You know, and it's like if I didn't have Brandy.

I would have scheduled several hours to be Googling all of these names. And honestly, you know, I I'm glad I did have brandy because it saved that time. But you know, lots of people wouldn't. They'd just be like, I don't know these people. But if you know anything about these races, I please educate me.

I mean, well, I will tell you that attorneys that I trust and folks on the Democratic side that are you know, fighting for equity and justice and good good people that you'd want on your Supreme Court, people that I trust, they have been doing a really big push. So it makes me sad that you haven't heard this. I even posted a link I never really look at text messages.

But I saw a text

Okay.

message that said, here's who to vote for for judge. And they did an incredible

Hmm.

job saying, beware, because there's a lot of concerns about Washington State, similar to our US Supreme Court, being taken over

Right.

by the right. And so they've been working really hard to make sure that doesn't happen. And in a couple of these races, there are two Democrats running, and they have been really good about saying, Hey, we're going to tell you to vote.

For either of these two people. They are both good, but don't vote for the other people. So I posted on Facebook what they sent me. It said, beware, you know.

Okay.

And I said, this is important. but I think it's just stifled. No one likes it. No one looked. No one clicked. No views. Nothing. So fuck Facebook. No, I

I'm sorry. I didn't even see it. I'm sorry.

you no, it's not your fault. It's the fucking algorithm.

Yeah.

Like that's what it is. And you know what that deserves right now, really quick, because we're not talking about him, but Ivan needs to be here. It deserves this.

Sorry, I knew that louder.

That's how I feel about it. okay, so it looks like Colleen Melody, that was their choice. She's up 50.11%. Jamie Hawk and Mike Diaz were the choice for everybody. So between Democrats, that's who the big battle was for.

Mm-hmm.

and it looks like, well, this is I can't even say what how that's going. We have to look at the state results, the entire state results, because that's just here in Snohomish County.

in Snomish County, Jamie Hawk has the lead on that. So we'll look at those later. But those races are pretty big.

I and and I I can I confirmed

with Brandy, Jamie Hawk is the one judge I've met. Like we we

does she like Jam

I voted for Jamie Hawk, but don't tell her. No, I mean I'm on I'm live on here. Not that anyone's watching, but

No, I

we we we we went to like a parade in Bothell and afterwards we saw her and spent and and spent like half an hour talking to her and a couple other people who were at that same table with her. other politician type folks. and so she seemed nice enough. And yeah, so I I have met Jamie Hawk.

Awesome. That yeah. Well, I voted for her, but you know, if Diaz wins, but she's looking good right there, so that's great. I'm I I am really passionate about this PUD district. Don't like and

Okay.

it's not l I mean Janet St. Clair is gonna make it through, but it's not looking like super great with Sid Logan at fifty one percent. He's the incumbent. but Janet St. Clair run ran for

State Senate or House, I can't remember, in the 10th, was unsuccessful, but was very close to winning. So it looks like she will be going to the general. So we'll have to just reassess at that point. And then I'm very happy to see that the City of Everett levy is being approved by 74%. Thank you for approving fire. And now

shit! Yep, we won. Sorry, I'm so excited. Fire District 15, the Tulalip Bay Fire Department.

Okay.

We needed sixty percent and we're at seventy-five almost. Yay! That's fantastic. That is fantastic news.

Okay, well I'm I'm good with this, so we can be done. in the library district. libraries are important, so yes, we stood up. I'm so proud. I

did library win? Yes, library won.

am incredibly proud of this work. Way to go, team. Did we do better than Everett though? I wanna I want to do better. We did do better

Ha ha ha.

than Everett. No, we didn't. Slightly, slightly better than Everett so far.

We only had to convince a few people though,

Well what else do you want to look at? Should we look at like s I guess statewide, like how things are looking?

Yeah, sure. You you were th this is all Snohomish stuff we were talking about, right?

Yeah, and like Stacy actually, like, you know, I was looking at Stacy's, Stacy Willoughby running in the 12th. Like she will have a different county in there. Also Dave Paul, as will Clyde Shavers, will actually have to. I'm gonna stop sharing this one.

Because their districts are split.

Yeah, their districts are split among counties, so those results will look slightly different.

While while you're looking that up, I'll just give an update on

Yes, please do.

on Michigan. Michigan's now at forty percent forty-seven percent reporting, and it is tightened further. We have Al Said at 49.68, Haley Stevens at 46.56. And I have to flip back to I'll I'll I'll try to check the socials to see like because you know the people who really know this stuff know like which counties are outstanding.

Yeah.

Which way are they expected to go? And all that kind of thing.

I'm sorry, but like why is

Mallory McMahon in here? Like what it what is that about?

she dropped out too late to be removed from the ballot.

cause cause it was a three-way race and

she dropped out only a few weeks ago, when it became clear she was gonna be in third no matter what. and and she made some missteps in her campaign about and emphasizing certain things that got her in trouble and blah blah blah.

but she she's getting three point seven seven percent of the vote anyway, even though she dropped out a few weeks ago. but again she dropped out too late to be not on the ballot. She was already on the ballot, but she she dropped out and I I I don't know, did she I don't know if she endorsed one of the other two or not.

It's

just it just bothers me that people like three point seven percent of people voted for her. Like, come on. Like pay attention. Yeah. Are they all male

She's not even running, right? Yeah, well, you know, people do the

in or do they I can't I don't know what Michigan does.

No well they they they've got some early vote clearly, but I I I don't think so. I'm sure there's some people there there are always some people who will do that. I mean, if you remember in California, what was it? stall Stalwart? How do you say his name? Stallwell, who dropped out after like sex abuse allegations and all this kind of stuff. You know, there were still like tens of thousands of people who voted for him or whatever. You know,

Mm-hmm.

I mean the percentage was tiny, and I'm making up tens of thousands, it might have been thousands. I don't know.

But there there was still a percentage of people who voted for him, you know, because they wanted to, you know. So

Mm.

and you always get a percentage doing write ins no matter what, you know, it it happens.

I don't think the the data is updated yet. Okay, so we got our county stuff, but I don't think it's updated in here.

Okay.

The results are not updated for the state.

Well that sucks. Come on, they should get their act together.

Yeah, I want more

I know. No, I mean I know that counties gotta send their results. So Okay, let's go look up another one. who all like let's go look at Spokane count

well shit. I mean are they even counting things?

You think they won't be? Because of the fire. Right. Yeah. I I I

I mean I I don't know what's burned, you know, over there.

imagine they're still doing something. Like

I mean of course they

are, but like it's just it's you know, what a what a time. I don't even know what to say. Yeah.

There might be delays. There might be delays in terms of getting accurate

results, like because you'll get parts of the county that are fine that have submitted their results and other parts might maybe not yet.

I just clicked statewide. here's the statewide results. Well,

You found it? You found it?

Spokane County shared shared it. So thank you, Spokane County. Secretary of State, yeah, state of Washington. Maybe it's just hard to find no, they shared it, but it's just Spokane County results. Okay.

Okay. Yeah.

yeah. Well, I'll just look at this one.

Okay, Leg District Three, Natasha Hill, which is the only black woman who was or black, I think, representative period that was elected east of the mountains, is doing great. Sixty-three percent. Here I'll share my screen. Sorry, I'll get into the weeds too much if I do this. So you gotta like stop me. You know what I mean? You really do. Okay, I just care about like

Yeah, it's okay. That's you know people like

Pam's doing well. okay. Well, interesting, 'cause like this one's a big race too between Luc Jasmine and Pam Kohlmeier Pam well, the Republican is winning, but it looks like Pam Kohlmeier as of now would be going into position two. Interesting.

District four just a bunch of Republicans running in leg district. We couldn't get a Democrat over there? For real?

Ugh, Rob Chase. at least Rob Tupper's giving him a run for his money.

okay, this is the race. Okay, okay, okay. this is excellent for our listeners. Okay, okay. All right,

Hey, we're it works for the people watching the video livestream. And you could

always like cut it out at audio if you wanted.

You're totally right. I know. I'm just laughing about it. Okay. So we got as I suspected, Julia Payne will be going up against Jonathan Bingle likely. she's up not a ton, like less than 500 votes. but yeah, so like I said, running as an independent is not a good idea because people don't know what you really believe. I

It's it it what is an independent? No one can quite say what that is, right? I don't know. What do you think? If you're independent,

What an independent is?

do you believe in anything? Like you're just independently thinking about every situation? How can I trust you?

Well,

honestly the thing is you have to evaluate each each independent one by one. That's the whole thing. A a lot of the times these days independents are stealth one of the other parties and are just trying to hide it. but sometimes

Yeah.

sometimes they're real oddballs that have like all kinds of crazy opinions that really like they're they

Highly agree with Democrats on some things and highly agree with Republicans on other things in a way that seems incoherent to most people. But one interesting thing, actually, like, sorry, Detour because you asked about Independents Like,

detour, detour.

one of the things that is going on right now in Montana is that there is an effort to get the Democrat to drop out of the general election because the Republican is hardcore MAGA.

a tight neck and neck rate race versus the Republican. So this ties into what we were starting it with at the beginning. That independent is much more centrist, conservative

They're they're even they're they're more like they're more like an old-fashioned traditional Republican in the pre-MAGA days than they are like a Democrat. But they're arguably considerably better than the MAGA Republican. And so the question is, you know, and it looks like basically the general election, if it's a three-way race, the Republican wins. No question about it. If the Democrat drops out and lets it be a Republican versus independent race.

The independent has a shot. And at least it would be more like a Romney Republican than a Trump Republican. And so is that the strategic right thing to do? So far, the Democrat has said absolutely not, I'm dropp not dropping out.

Yeah.

So

anyway, so you never know. It it Independents and and it it depends a lot on the district, it depends a lot on state, it depends a lot on the individual. What the hell do they actually mean by that? And so unfortunately, it's one that you can't just generalize. You have to look into the individual.

Well,

and that's what I mean. Most we we've talked about this several times today. Most voters are not doing as much work as you and I are doing. They're going for the quick answer. And when one you have to like explain to people what do you agree with, what don't you? Or if you're a wolf in sheep's clothing for either party, that's not fair to Republicans, that's not fair to Democrats, you know? Like that's not fair to either side if you're not being truthful with your if you're pretending to be something else. And then I think

It's just also really hard to narrow down issue by issue what you care about. You can come to DC or the state capitol and have different opinions once you're there, but like who are you gonna caucus with when you're there too? You know what I mean? Like how is that even gonna work? So interesting to and and again, like if you're looking at previous results and

The world just kind of repeats and certain things work and certain things don't. If we haven't elected an independent in our state since the first year, but since the year we were

Ha ha.

founded, I feel like, yeah, 1889, I think it's not a good idea. You know, it's just not a good idea. But there's some people that I know that were running as independent Democrats. But again, that to me is like.

I mean, try the name out, try the label. At least you have, you know, something that identifies you in that in that space. So interesting. Okay, let's refresh the state results and see if that's anything new. Everything else is pretty standard in the other seats. actually let's add that up. Can you do the math for me? Because I can't.

god.

Math, math. I well I've got a calculator. I now

I know. You well, probably faster than me. Okay.

I'm I'm bad at arithmetic, but I've got a calculator ready to go.

No, that still is like 47%. The results of the Democrat in the race, I mean, that's what it I mean, that's interesting. I don't know, I don't know how many like Republicans ended up voting for Croft, if that was the case or what's gonna happen there. But the the person who got the closest in the past before redistricting, which is now a a city council member for the city of Spokane, got like forty-seven percent.

But that was pre-redistricting. So it'll be interesting to see how that ends up with 51.23%, 25.63%, and 22.91% among the two, the Democrat and the Independent. So that adds up to about a little over 47%. But some of those could be Republicans, I guess, that that just couldn't stand.

A Republican? Like, but I don't know because I think there's a lot of Democrats that actually like that Republican. So I have no idea what to say about that race. Or at least a lot of like historically democratic organizations that ended up endorsing the Republican, mostly Labor. I'm gonna give Labor a hard time on that. But well. All right, what else do we want to talk about?

I dunno, we like election results it's still narrowing in Michigan. It's not

Okay, I yeah,

we could stay on the phone and wait for Michigan.

it may or may not be called tonight, you know, I don't know. It's it's four forty nine eight El-Sayed forty seven one three Stevens. This this is the kind of closeness if if we're like at under two percent, they may even end up like calling for recalls and all this recounts and all of that kind of stuff. You know, you don't know. It's

Yeah.

those usually don't ever change anything in unless it's like less than half.

Half a percent has to be closer than this, but you know, we'll see. what what do you got? You're looking at in individual counties here. Yeah.

So yeah, I'm showing you the I don't know much about these precincts, but this is where we don't have results.

So there's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Is there any more up here? Eight, nine, nine areas without Yeah, we have yeah, nine precincts or

That wouldn't be that. I'm sorry. What would you call that? Counties? Nine counties. Sorry.

Those are counties. Those are counties.

Sorry. I'm just really tired. Like, what are we looking at here? This is this isn't a legislative

Precincts are usually a bit smaller.

district. This is a state. Emily, get it right. This is why I do this show. This is why we do Um civics. This is why because

Most people don't know what we know, Sam, and I certainly don't know that much, but I know there's people that know less than me. So and you're not even paying attention to the state

I know I should

do better. Like I get dribs and drabs from listening to my wife talk about things and like there there're certain races that she's more invested in because like her friends from the legislature are in those races. So I hear more about those and but but yeah, I have no good excuses.

I know. I'm giving up, but you know what? You know

more. I I get my national news from you and Ivan So and you and you share it in a fun way. So

I

I'll I'll I'll plug myself since you mentioned that. our our our our

Yeah, plug it. I want and I was about to share your stuff, so

pat our Podcast is Curmudgeon's Corner, where myself and my co-host Ivan chat throughout no, not chat throughout the week. That's our Slack. No, where it's it's a once a week Podcast. And actually this coming week it's gonna be our one thousandth episode of the Podcast. we have not missed

Amazing. Congratulations.

a week.

since we launched in god, two thousand seven. What the hell is it two thousand seven?

That's crazy. Okay, I'm gonna give you a clap.

Thank you, thank you.

I'm sorry, I I looked at the tutorial today and got really excited about all

Ha ha.

the sound effects I could use.

Yeah,

we we we started in June two thousand seven and haven't missed a week since. So so

That's amazing. I'm I can't

believe it. Like I was so stoked for our other friend in the Podcast network, the Snohomish Podcast Network, Sarah, who got had a hundred episodes, but I'm like, my gosh, a thousand episodes. Congrats. That's

Ha ha ha.

that's incredible. It's so cool. And I I love tuning in.

Yeah, I'm I'm I'm I'm planning

I shouldn't promise anything because I've only got three days to get it done and I have to figure it out. But I was gonna do something where before the prop the show proper starts this coming week, I'll have clips of like episode one, one hundred, two hundred, three hundred, four hundred, five hundred and just like short little segments just to give a taste and and then jump into episode one thousand. So

We'll see how it goes.

Amazing.

See if I have time.

That's great.

All right, any more results? Okay. Looks like he's he's f way farther ahead, honestly, to me, on this. Like

so so the

one you're looking at yeah, we're up to fift the one Emily's looking up as up to fifty-six percent and he's gained a little bit from when I quoted it back at like fifty-three percent just a few minutes ago. So there's been a little bit more of a drop and our a ballot drop. so now you've got it at fifty nine at sorry, forty-nine five versus forty-six eight. It's still really tight, but

Yeah, it is because

there's still six hundred and fifty thousand ballots to count. I mean, yeah.

Yeah, I mean and

again it it really depends where we are. You know, you were talking about p poly market and calci the betting markets and stuff.

Yeah. Yeah.

they had you know they had I just looking at polymarket before election day they had El-Sayed at ninety-eight point nine percent. As election results came in, that dropped

To seventy six point six percent, but with the latest ballot drop has gone back up to eighty-eight percent. But you know, there's there's a lot of problems with these betting markets, but you know,

that that's what that's what they have at

Yeah, no, I mean I just joke.

the moment. but I think you know I wanna hear what like some of the the the talking head experts who really know all the counties, like you

You know, like Kornacki you've you've got up the NBC News website on the screen that Emily is sharing. And but it doesn't show like his live little commentary and stuff. And 'cause he he goes crazy with the board and he's touching things and he's bringing up different counties and telling you what you should expect

my God, should I go find him?

in each county and how it compares to previous elections and what votes are outstanding and where

I if Stevens is gonna catch up, where do they need to get the votes from and all this kind of

stuff? And I you know, I can't imagine like I'm a political junkie, but I can't imagine packing all of that information about counties all over the freaking country into my head. Like,

no, and I just I I I can't I can barely remember my own name, you know? It's this kind of stuff, you know, no.

same, same.

I'm wondering if I can do this even. Cause he's right there, isn't he in the corner? Isn't that him doing it? Here we go. There we go. There we go.

Yeah, yeah.

You're gonna run into legal issues, don't do this too much.

my gosh. You're you're right. I

guess you're right. I didn't even think about it. Okay, wait, what is what's he pressing?

The now w

You can't hear it though, so I guess the sound will help.

No, you can't hear it. Yeah, they they

probably won't go after you. When it when Ivan and I for Curmudgeon's Corner for the last couple presidential elections, we've done live streams for the entirety of election night. From the first polls closing all the way in until, you know, the end of the night when the result has been pretty clear. And that's a lot of fun. And we have like screens like this up in the side. Like we're not it's not on our live stream. You only hear Ivan and I talking.

but we're we're processing the results as they come in because like we we talked about the washington state things the one thing you know I

love Washington State I love the vote by mail I love all the 100% vote by mail I love that the one thing I don't like is they only do a ballot drop once a day for with more data. So you get your eight eight PM update when the polls close and then you don't get another update for 24 hours. Actually I think they do

put it at five PM the next day. So slightly like twenty one hours later.

Do so that we're like one of the few states that do it that way or what?

Yeah, no, most states, like the results are dribbling in all night. Like precinct by precinct, there's not like a single drop at a single time. It's like as soon as the polls close, precincts start reporting their data and you start getting precinct by precinct data from all over the state. And you s it slowly builds up until you have everything hours and hours later. Because typically really small precincts

you'll get their results like within minutes. You'll get the previously tabulated vote by mail stuff in the states that allow that to be tabul tabulated in advance right away. And

then you have results dribble in over the course of the evening. And then of course California famously is super slow. They don't fully you know, I mean even like in every state, like the the time period to make it official is like two weeks usually. But like in California specifically

it it's still it dribbles in over the course of the whole two weeks. Like here in Washington State, yes, you get results dribbling in for two weeks, but you pretty much know the results after the first day and in really close races after a couple days. But like in in California, like you can have like a major race still be uncalled like a week and a half in, you know. But but yeah, like I it

From from the point of view of like what would be sort of good for the republic, you probably

shouldn't have any intermediate results reported at all. You report the result once you've finished counting. You are done. There's nothing left to count. Boom, here are the results, one shot. Now the reality of that is you couldn't report results on election night in most cases, because like you

i and there was a just a Supreme Court case about this, that where it was validated that yes, you can count ballots that were postmarked on election day even if they didn't arrive on election day. So as long as that's true, you have to wait a few days for those ballots to arrive, right? To count them.

So if you did that you would not have a results on Election Day. And I know people are like excited about that. But one of the things that got you know

Depending on the state and the voting patterns in the state, sometimes the early results favor one party or the other and the late coming results favor the opposite party. And

people see the fact that the initial results say one thing and then that lead starts deteriorating and sometimes it flips as evidence that there must be fraud. When in fact it's just the count coming

Yeah. I mean

in.

it is it's ridiculous for them j sore fucking losers. Sore fucking losers. Yeah.

But but having said

having said the fact that like from the point of view of civics it might be best to only give final results once they're really and truly final. From the point of view of a politics junkie, I want real-time results all the time. I want to be sitting here watching individual votes being counted and see the numbers

Yeah.

tick up and see the little graphs changing and that it's fun to watch this kind of stuff.

If I wasn't talking to you right now, I'd probably have Kornaki on my TV right now, listening to him, or one of the others. I'm kind of sad Kornacki it you know, in the divorce between MSNBC and NBC, NBC got Kornaki. And I

Mm-hmm.

kind of like wish he'd gone the other way. But like I love watching that kind of real time election night coverage and and aspe and especially the geeks like him, who are her

are like I said, pointing at the individual counties and talking about sometimes even individual precincts and well this precinct hasn't come in yet and this is this is where this candidate's gonna have a lot of strength and so you can expect that yeah it's it's just fun. It's just fun. But that's politics

Yeah, for sure.

as sports, which you know that is kind of my thing because I don't do actual sports, but I love following

Mm-hmm.

politics as sports.

But that also diminishes sort of the importance of it. It's not just a spectacle. It actually matters. It impacts people's lives in a way that an actual, like, you know, baseball game or something wouldn't, you know, but

Yeah.

well look at it well never mind, you can't see this. You're watching you see you do have Kornacki on. So like you I I am creating the experience for you.

Yeah, gives you you put it on I I I have Kornacki on this screen

and on my other screen I have MS Now, stupid name, their new name by the way. I have that up on the other screen. I'd have I would have my four up all four news networks, but I get I get my TV from YouTube TV and they will do four up on devices. Like if I had it on my phone or on my TV, I could have like all four news networks up at the same time. Like but

On their if I'm watching on the computer I have to pick one, which is annoying. I I I like having

all of up at the same time to compare like what they're saying. What is Fox saying versus what is MSNBC versus CNN? The other

of the four is BBC and they probably wouldn't even have live US at election coverage right now anyway. But you know, whatever.

Statewide Jamie Hawk is at thirty-three percent, while Mike Diaz and this is for Justice, Supreme Court Justice Position three. he's at twenty point five seven percent. So I'll just round up twenty-one percent. She's killing it there. so that's interesting to see how that is going. Let's look really quick. Congressional districts, Emily Randall, forty-nine percent.

For Congressional District Six. Come on, I want to see all of the count, like everything. Show me it all. here we go. Here we go. Suzan DelBene is winning by nearly 50%. It sorry. There's the funny thing was when I was in DC, I get this text message. It was at and we got to go visit the DCCC.

Okay.

and so it was like really close to our hotel. We went up there, we do that every year.

And they talk about, you know, how they how they do their work. and you know, Suzan DelBene is the chair of the DCCC, the D trip, we like to call it, and is doing that. And I get this text

And and and I are I

and I I I I'm in her district. You are you Larsen You're in Larsons, but I am in Del Benny's

I'm in Larsen's yeah. yes, yes, yes. But she's

district, so

Yeah, and the 38th is split. So Suzan, when they redistricted, DelBene got Marysville, which used to be in Larsen's district as well. So, which is my where I grew up. So I walked in the parade with her and it was a rough day because not many people in that area knew her at that

Mm-hmm.

time. And it was interesting. but it's quite funny because

I got a text message while we were there. I'm literally a block away from the D trip offices where we were staying. And I get a text that says, She destroyed our party, you know, about Suzan DelBene. And it was a message from Hunter Gordon. And it was like a 425 number. It was kind of weird the way the text message came through. And my response was, "who dis?"

Ha ha ha.

But I just was like a little bit concerned. And it was, you know, just sending you to donate, donate, donate. And it was a little yucky in that way. and so I'm just glad that that didn't work. Not to say that I don't get where people are coming from, but I don't think it doesn't make me feel good that I know how hard Congresswoman DelBene works and that her

Uh-huh.

team works. And so I was like, please.

you're when you're offending and saying that and you know putting her down, you're putting like a lot of people down, you know, that are working really hard and fighting really hard. So didn't didn't like that much. Marie Gluesenkamp Marie Gloosencamp Perez. Let's see how Brent Heinrich, he's

Abdul El-Sayed

the Democratic candidate trying to run against Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

Gluesenkamp is at 38.9%. Brent received 15.3%.

Let's add up the Republicans. So

John P. Rocco one point nine two percent.

Okay. You want all the Republicans or all the non Democrats? 'Cause there are a few like independents in here. Okay, wait one point

I would say let's do all the non democrats.

nine two, one point five two, okay.

you can see it okay. When I'm looking at that, it's hard to see, so I just assumed. Yeah, definitely put the cascade party in that.

Yeah, and then thirty eight point seven one for the biggest one.

point five five for the Cascade Party and one point three three for Kellogg there. Forty four point

three.

And then yeah, so I guess it the Democrats are winning, are taking the cake in there. But sh but Democrats will do better we'll do worse. Democrats will do worse in the general. We typically do in that those counties.

Okay.

What do you think? And Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Mm-hmm.

could pick up some of these cascade party people and maybe some of these independents. I don't know. Right? Or she could pick up some of these people that are like, I don't want I don't know. Sorry, she's not running against

Yeah, I mean generally

a crazy person now. So

Generally speaking, I mean not always, it depends. But like when you have these sort of everybody together type things, or you have runoffs or whatever, you add up all the Republican leaning, add up all the Democrat leaning. If you add up all the Democrat leading and they're over fifty percent, then you're there. And that's the case here.

Because all the Republicans added up to 44%. That means the Democrats are about 66 or 56%, which is a still a majority. Now it it sometimes doesn't work out quite that way. And sometimes things just change between the between the primary and the general, but you can get it. Like for instance

no, I'm feeling

really good about like the Dems, just the two Dems together getting fifty-four percent. Like that,

Yeah.

like truly that fifty-four, even if we lose some and she does worse in some counties and some of the counties that are in this district have the highest voting percentage right now. so that means that like as those ones come up, like they've already voted. So fascinating. Just fascinating. But I so with that.

Marie, if you get elected, you can do things that are not in favor of Israel and you can be a little less judgmental of people who are different than you, ma'am.

Well, I think this kind of thing is one of the things where you know, we we talked a lot about the El-Sayed Stevens race earlier. but the one of the things we'll see, as assuming Al Said pulls it out and wins, which he is ahead right now, where we're up to sixty percent and he's almost at fifty he's he's his lead is gaining again. It looks like he's gonna win. But assuming he wins, this will be a test about whether he can win in the general.

And you know, is this and I think if he does, then that you know, th there's been a lot of talk over the last however long about sort of more progressive candidates, even the DSA candidates, winning, but but they're only winning in deep blue districts. And of course they can win there, but they're they're never gonna win in purple areas. And they're they're gonna cause problems for the Democrats.

in purple areas because the Republicans will tie the most extreme DSA Democrats to Democratic candidates throughout the country, even in purple and red areas where they're fighting to win, where you really need a purple Democrat to win. and we'll see if El-Sayed wins this and then goes on to win the general election in Michigan.

Then that will sort of show that maybe this whole strategy of the only way Democrats can win is to try to move to the center or even a little bit to the right of center to try to pull in some some stray Republicans. Maybe that's not the only way to win. Maybe you can win by by energizing people further to the left as well.

And I think that it's an interesting debate, and this will be a test of it, and we will see.

Mm-hmm.

I honestly when I hear those debates, I think, you know, this has actually already been been proved. This was proved by Donald Trump. Donald Trump did not even try in the slightest to go after the center. He was 100% a strategy

Mm-hmm.

of let me get

the most rabid folks on my side. In fact, let me get the people who never vote to come in and vote because they're excited about me and it worked. It

I mean, I think I I and I don't think that is wrong for Democrats to to do. And like I said, I think that quote the moderates, you know, who would have preferred Haley Stevens or would prefer the moderate or who would even have that argument are going to support him going into the general. You know what I mean? Where I don't think that was the

I think

other way around. So I don't think you actually lose.

the moderates when you put forward someone that is appeared to be more progressive.

Well, the the the the question for

the general is not whether you lose the moderate Democrats. It's whether you lose some anti-MAGA Republicans, who are definitely Republicans, but are

anti-MAGA and so are sort of wishy-washy, and it's whether you lose them. but but but you know,

Yeah. Yeah.

the the thing is the thing is with all of this, and I I you know, as as you were asking me whether I would come on, I was thinking I should mention this and I haven't yet.

to reiterate something I've said on my own show a couple times, I think what is the the key dynamic here in the on the democratic side right now is not really an ideological difference or a difference on any particular issue. The the appetite is for people who seem like they're willing to fight and be aggressive and be

And you can have moderates. Like you know, th there have been examples of some moderates in Virginia, I think I I'm forgetting the names, but that one that were also being aggressive and acting like fighters and and and you can say like, well w you know, what i i there's a practicality here. You're gonna fight about something that you can't possibly deliver, but I think a lot of what people are frustrated with when they talk about the quote unquote establishment Democrats.

is not actually a policy difference. I mean there are some policy differences, don't get me wrong. Some of the Israel stuff is definitely along those lines. There's some other things. But I think it's primarily not a policy difference. It's an attitude difference. It's a are you fundamentally trying to sort of, hey, let's go back to normal. Let's go back to how things were

twenty years ago and like where where you know the Republicans and Democrats can

have have a nice fight on the house floor and then go have drinks together and be happy. Or you know and and where everything is about, hey, can we f come up with a bipartisan deal? Versus people who are like, you know, basically fuck that. Like they are crazy. They are wrong. They are doing evil things. We need to use every ounce of power available to us to drive through our agenda.

and be aggressive about it. Now and people can debate what is that agenda and have

a healthy debate within the democratic side of things about what should be in that agenda and what should not be. But I think the the key is that attitudinal thing. And also, I mean, it's not purely age, but there's a generational thing too about like, you know, are you actually savvy about how to operate in today's media environment? Or are you thinking that, you know, all you

All you have to do is go on the Sunday morning news shows, you know, and

Mm-hmm.

and and have your nice little interview. and that's part of part of the the thing too. And I think what you're seeing a hunger for, and there are a lot of parallels, honestly, to what the Republicans went through in 2016. I hope with with better policy outcomes and things that aren't evil, but it's people the the the people who are frustrated by the status quo.

Are frustrated

by nothing happening, are frustrated by people who seem to be triangulating their views based on what they think will win in the polls rather than like actually advocating things that they actually believe in strongly. and I think if you have people who are advocating for the things they believe in strongly, they can convince people to agree with them on their they can actually persuade people.

Through the power of their charisma and their their ability to to to push their agenda. but I think people are people are tired of like, let's let's just try to be calm and work it out and everything will be okay. And they're tired of people who seem to be like not really saying what they really believe, but instead saying what they think they need to say in order to win. And I think that people detect that and it turns them off.

Anyway, that that's my little ring.

Yeah.

I also think it could be an overcorrection too. And I don't mean that in a bad way. You know what I mean? But when I see like

I see some of the things that the Republicans have done to Democrats and then I've seen Democrats do the same thing. Do you know what I mean? Back to

Mm.

Republicans, like as and and I I guess I'm using like the lock up, you know, type thing. And we like that that is it it's one thing for us to say it as Democrats to like mock the president, you know, saying that about Hillary or the sorry, I'm not even gonna call him the president.

mock Trump about what he said and him doing that and like constantly being lock him up like and he legit should be. But like we we we just kinda revert back to doing the same thing. And it goes like I've been reading that book, The Fourth Turning, and, you know, Amy Poehler brought my attention to it. And I just it doesn't make me upset, but I just see like we keep like overcorrecting. It's like yin yang, seasonal, you know what I mean? The way things go. And so

It's kind of funny because when I think people are like, I'm tired of this and we need change, it's just this like you said, the same thing that happened in the Trump era, right? Of how but I'm okay with moving forward if that's what we think we're doing. But I don't know if we necessarily are when we end up using the same tactics. I'm not saying we're using the same policies, but I think sometimes we're deploying the

same tactics as the party before and it's just over and over and over again.

I think there's well, the

the problem with these things is the escalatory s spiral, right?

Yeah.

But at the same time, if the other side is using these tactics and you refuse to when it is your turn, then of course the direction overall of policy is gonna ratchet in the direction of the people who are willing to be more aggressive about

Mm.

it. And and I'm not necessarily you know, I would not advocate, hey

Let's do all of the illegal crap that Donald Trump has been doing and completely ignore all laws and just say, you know, go ahead and stop me. You know, I don't want a left dictatorship in alternative

Mm-hmm.

to a right dictatorship, right? But at the

Yeah.

same time, you know, hey, let's use every tool at our disposal like that we can do legally and not restrain ourselves.

In the name of civility and you know, the the the sort of way it used to be and getting back to it. So like if we need to kill the filibuster and be aggressive, kill the foli filibuster and be aggressive. If we need to let in new states, let in new states, you know.

Mm-hmm.

Do what you need to do within the parameters of the law, but taking you know, but don't leave things on the table just because, you know.

Mm-hmm.

You know, y you have to realize, you know, hey, we're in a world where we've got a 6-3 Supreme Court going the other way. So like you have to figure out something that can survive that. And if your plan is something that you just know, okay, even if we succeed, the Supreme Court's going to declare it unconstitutional a year a half later, then that's not a good plan

Mm-hmm.

to start with. Come up with something else.

Yeah. Agreed. I also have to apologize to Clyde and Dave. They're actually doing great if you look at their numbers right here. Well, if you look

at count you know, and with all the counties included, Snohomish County wasn't super for them, but Snohomish County's not a big part of their district.

But they're doing better when you look look at the multi county. And and and

I'll mention too, in the Michigan race, El-Sayed versus Stevens, El-Sayed is now over fifty percent, as we're at sixty three percent reported now. And like the betting markets now have him back up over ninety five percent chance of winning.

I'm frankly grateful

for that because again, like I'm I'm grateful for that. If if this is about winning, I I've talked myself into it after all of the things that I've heard today that we can win with him and we are more li I I'm not saying we will. I I really don't believe

That it's the Republicans that are anti mega. This is just my like reaction to that from what you said. I don't think there's enough of these anti mega Republicans to like that will drop out and not vote to make that big of a difference. I'm more worried about the super progressives or whatever you want, you know, the the Democrat. I'm more worried about the Democratic Socialists. Sorry. Not the super, like I am more worried about the Democratic Socialists.

Well, and and again again looking at it

looking at existing polls, it looks like Stevens you know Stevens would have been a dead heat with the Republican, but El-Sayed is a little bit behind right now, a few percentages behind. So right now with an with an El-Sayed candidate, you have to say the Republicans are slightly favored in Michigan, but there's time to make up that gap.

Yeah, there's time and we'll just have to work through it. We'll just have to work through it. And and and people responding to that now might also be influenced by what they think would be the better option. Do you know what I mean?

I I think that that's very true and one of the things we'll see it usually takes especially a state state like this, it'll be a while till we have enough polls to see what's going on post primary. But I think you know, watch for Michigan polls over the next two to three weeks and see if they start to move. and even before that, I think what will be interesting to see is what's Steven's reaction like.

What is her concession speech? Does she throw herself 100% behind him? Or, you know, is she a sore loser? I think that makes a difference because their supporters will pick up on that.

Thank you for listening and watching the Sir Podcast. Sam and I got cut off, but that was a great place to end for the evening. Remember to support these therapy sessions and follow the Um, Sir Podcast on Instagram. Subscribe to our channel on your favorite platform and comment or leave us a review.

The Um, Sir Podcast is a Bossy LLC production with edits, production, and content support from Trent of Red Trux LLC, and of course the amazing Samie Blood. As always, a special thanks to Bryan Bradley for the Um, Sir Podcast theme song. Have the week you deserve. Toodles.