Shownotes
Will the global CPI slowdown continue?
Global Markets
Global CPI is falling fast in both DM and EMs
- Economies across the world have a GDP of about US$90trn and an average CPI of 6.2%
- DM CPI was 5.7%
- EM CPI was 6.9%
World CPI was 6.2%, down 0.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts
- DM CPI was 5.7%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppt
- It has moved from being in line with World CPI last year; to the current 0.5ppt discount
- EM CPI was 6.9%, which is about flat vs. one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppt
- It has moved from being in line with the World CPI last year; to the current 0.7ppt premium
Developed Regions
DM Americas CPI is falling fast, DM Europe is sliding, DM Asia is on a steady rise
- DM Americas is the largest, with US$25trn of GDP and 4.9% CPI
- DM Europe has US$14.9trn GDP and 7.1% CPI
- DM Pacific has US$7.6trn GPD and 4.7% CPI
DM Americas CPI is falling fast, DM Europe is sliding, DM Asia is on a steady rise
- DM Americas CPI was 4.9%, down 3.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1ppts.
- It has moved from a 1.7ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 1.3ppts discount
- DM Europe CPI was 7.1%, up 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.1ppts.
- It has moved from a 0.5ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 0.9ppts premium
- DM Pacific CPI was 4.7%, up 2.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts.
- It has moved from a 4.4ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 1.5ppts discount
Emerging Regions
EM Europe and Asia CPI falling; Middle East & Africa, and Frontier markets are still on fire
- EM Americas had a small GDP of US$3.8trn and CPI of 7%
- EM Asia had a massive GDP of US$25.7trn and 1.9% CPI
- EM Europe had a small US$3.9trn GDP and a massive 17.7% CPI
- Emerging Middle East & Africa had a tiny US$1.7trn GDP and a high 11.5% CPI
- Frontier markets had a US$2.9trn GDP and an extremely high 31.2% CPI
EM Europe and Asia CPI falling; Middle East & Africa, and Frontier markets are still on fire
- EM Americas CPI was 7%, down 2.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts.
- It has moved from a 2.6ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 0.7ppts premium
- EM Asia CPI was 1.9%, down 0.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.4ppts.
- It has moved from a 4.1ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 4.3ppts discount
- EM Europe CPI was 17.7%, down 6.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 5ppts.
- It has moved from a 17.1ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 11.4ppts premium
- EM ME&A CPI was 11.5%, up 6.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts.
- It has moved from a 1.5ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 5.3ppts premium
- Frontier CPI was 31.2%, up 14.7ppts from 1yr ago; MoM up 0.3ppts
- It has moved from a 9.9ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 25ppts premium. This region was up YoY and MoM
Developed Countries
Only US CPI fell YoY; all top 5 DM countries, except Japan, fell MoM; UK CPI is double the US
- Top five DM countries
- US GDP was US$23trn, CPI of 5.0%
- Japan US$4.9trn and 3.9% CPI
- Germany US$4.2trn and 7.5% CPI
- UK: US$3.2trn, 10.2%
- France: US$2.9trn/5.8%
- USA CPI was 5%, down 3.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1ppts.
- It has moved from a 1.8ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 1.2ppts discount
- Japan CPI was 3.9%, up 2.7ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6ppts.
- It has moved from a 5.5ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 2.3ppts discount
- Germany CPI was 7.5%, up 1.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.3ppts.
- It has moved from a 1.1ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 1.3ppts premium
- UK CPI was 10.2%, up 3.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.4ppts.
- It has moved from a 0.4ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 4ppts premium
- France CPI was 5.8%, up 1.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.6ppts.
- It has moved from a 2.1ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 0.4ppts discount
Emerging Countries
Big CPI fall in Russia, China, and India; more minor falls in Korea and Brazil
- China: US$17.5trn/0.6%
- India: US$3.2trn/5.6%
- Korea: US$1.8trn/4.3%
- Russia: US$1.8trn/3.6%
- Brazil: US$1.6trn/4.7%
- China CPI was 0.6%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.3ppts.
- It has moved from a 5.2ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 5.6ppts discount
- India CPI was 5.6%, down 1.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts.
- It has moved from a 0.4ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 0.6ppts discount
- Korea CPI was 4.3%, up 0.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.6ppts.
- It has moved from a 2.6ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 2ppts discount
- Russia CPI was 3.6%, down 12.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 7.5ppts.
- It has moved from a 9.8ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 2.7ppts discount
- Brazil CPI was 4.7%, down 6.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.9ppts.
- It has moved from a 4.5ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 1.6ppts discount
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