Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:33 - What happened this week?
06:56 - Industry performance update
08:38 - An interesting inflection point
16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms
21:25 - Why are people short today?
25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class?
30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle?
36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings
39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing
44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May
49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view?
52:22 - The debt problem
01:01:09 - A society in decline
01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold
01:05:42 - Thanks for listening
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