Michael Haack sheds light on the intricate world of US sanctions and their impact on Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprises (MOGE) and the wider Myanmar military regime. Haack, a familiar voice on the podcast, has spent two decades advocating for Myanmar, playing a pivotal role in the passage of the Burma Act.

These latest sanctions, as Haack explains, cut off US financial services to MOGE, affecting loans and transfers, which may seem minor but actually have a profound impact. MOGE, being a vital source of foreign exchange for the military, deals primarily in US dollars, making these sanctions more significant than they initially appear. He believes one positive effect is that they will make it harder for the regime to acquire dollars for weapons.

However, he says they are ultimately, not a game changer, contrasting them with the EU's more potent sanctions, which compelled even China to divert funds intended for MOGE into escrow. He emphasizes that US sanctions were drafted with Thailand's interests in mind, allowing Myanmar to continue selling gas to its eastern neighbor. Haack hints at the US prioritizing its relations with Thailand over opposing Myanmar's regime, and also notes the influence of corporate lobbying.

Haack also points out that the history of US sanctions includes targeting the garment industry, which disproportionately affected vulnerable workers, and how such sanctions often serve as moral victories rather than practical solutions.

Haack closes by criticizing what he calls the “semiotic loop,” in which good news from Myanmar is amplified without meaningful change. He highlights the challenge of navigating Myanmar's “low information environment” and the influence of diverse groups, from religious organizations to corporations, in shaping US decisions. Haack's insights reveal the complexities of international sanctions and their implications for Myanmar's ongoing struggle for democracy.