Have you ever wondered what happens to communities when climate change forces people to move?

The economic and social ramifications are both complex and far-reaching. From community fragmentation to insurers potentially refusing coverage in high-risk areas, there are profound consequences stemming from not adapting to a climate in which natural disasters are accelerating.

Dr. Kaitlin Raimi, an associate professor of public policy at the University of Michigan, has researched the multifaceted nature of climate migration, and in this episode of Core Conversations, she sits down with host Maiclaire Bolton Smith to examine how regions like the Rust Belt might emerge as new havens for climate migrants and what measures communities can adopt to enhance their resilience. Dr. Raimi and Maiclaire also discuss the potential for policies to help communities adapt and support their residents in the face of climate change.

In this episode, explore how Americans view climate migrants, how policies could become a crucial factor influencing climate migration, and what the broader impacts of migration may mean for American society and the economy.

In This Episode:

1:38 – What is climate migration and where do migrants typically originate from?

3:32 – How is the U.S. public reacting to major natural disasters and how are these disasters influencing migration patterns?

5:06 – Will it require insurers to cease writing new policies to raise awareness about the impact of accelerating natural disasters?

8:30 – How are U.S. communities perceiving the influx of migrants from wildfire-prone or hurricane-prone states?

10:38 – Why are the Rust Belt states gaining attention as a climate haven?

12:53 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the housing market in The Sip.

13:50 – What are some adaptability measure that are available to keep people in their communities?

18:59 – Erika Stanley reviews natural catastrophes and extreme weather events across the world.

20:27 – What is the future of climate change migration and what ripple effects will this have at the national level?

Up Next: University of Miami Researcher Weighs in on Key 2024 Hurricanes Season Trends

Links:

• Hazard HQ Command Central
• Read CoreLogic Intelligence

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3HFslXD4 Copyright 2024 CoreLogic

Dr. Kaitlin Raimi:

So I think both as climate change happens more and as those policies might get changed, or as insurers refuse to insure people in particular areas, I think those signals are going to come through a lot more strongly than they have been.

Maiclaire Bolton Smith:

Welcome back to Core Conversations: A CoreLogic Podcast where we tour the property market to investigate how economics, climate change, governmental policies and technology affect everyday life. I am your host, Maiclaire Bolton Smith, and I'm just as curious as you are about everything that happens in our industry.

Climate migration can occur for many reasons. It could be a devastating hurricane, excessive, relentless heat, a lack of water. Whatever the reason, one of the first priorities is finding shelter. But it can be difficult for communities to accommodate an influx of newcomers if they're not prepared. Even if they are prepared, logistically, opinions surrounding climate migration can vary widely.

So to talk about how climate migration is perceived, we've invited Dr. Kaitlin Raimi, an associate professor of public policy at the Ford School of the University of Michigan, to talk about how people view the migration patterns resulting from a changing climate.

Kaitlin, welcome to Core Conversations.

KR:

Hi. Thanks so much for having me.

Erika Stanley:

Before we get too far into this episode, I wanted to remind our listeners that we want to help you keep pace with the property market. To make it easy, we curate the latest insight and analysis for you on our social media where you can find us using the handle @corelogic on Facebook and LinkedIn or @corelogicinc on X, formerly known as Twitter, and Instagram. But now, let's get back to Maiclaire and Kaitlin.

MBS:

Okay. So you specialize in how climate change communications affects people's understanding and behavior, as well as the policies surrounding this as well, too. Can you just to start us off today by talking about what do we mean by climate migration? And I guess, too, along with that, is it something that can occur between countries or just within a country or both? Can you just kind of set the stage for us?

KR:

Sure. So climate migration, it's sometimes called climate-induced migration, is really people moving because of climate change. So they have some sort of either one-time catastrophic event, like a hurricane hits their town and they lose their home and have to move, or it could be like a slower effect. So there's just been more and more droughts, it's becoming unfeasible for them to farm where they used to farm, and so they're moving out. So it's people moving because of the effects of climate change either directly, or it's often very hard to pinpoint somebody as being a climate migrant in particular because it's often these like downstream economic effects that actually drive people out as well.

And to answer your question, it can be both crossing borders, so people maybe who experienced hurricanes in Honduras moving north to escape climate change, but it can also be within country, so Americans having to move from out of wildfire regions in California might be another example. And most of the climate migration that we see is really within countries or regional, so people moving fairly close by.

MBS:

Okay. So generally seeing more domestic migration versus international migration, people are moving within their same country, is generally the pattern that you see?

KR:

Exactly. Yeah.

MBS:

Okay. I know you specifically really focus on climate-related migration and how it's perceived. So can we talk a little bit about this specifically from the US focus, there are many area of the countries that are experiencing climate change. You referred to some of the wildfire risk in California. I'm thinking also of the hurricane risk along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. We're seeing with climate change, these are becoming more frequent, sometimes more severe. What is your research showing about how the US public is reacting and migration patterns because of some of these major catastrophic events that are happening?

KR:

Yeah. My colleagues and I have run a number of studies looking at how Americans view climate migration. We've done some that are kind of correlational studies, so looking at just asking open-ended questions of, "When you think of climate migrants, what comes to mind?" But we've also run some experiments to see how does learning about climate migration or reading about climate migration, sometimes for the first time, affect people's beliefs about migration, but also about climate change.

All of that points to so far what we find is that talking about climate migration doesn't do a whole lot to change people's opinion about climate change at all or to make people want to reduce emissions. It doesn't do much for the core problem. What it does do is make people kind of scared of migrants.

MBS:

Interesting.

KR:

Yeah, especially if we're talking about cross-border migration, it doesn't move the dial on climate change, but it does make people much more worried about migration.

MBS:

Okay. You did allude, Kaitlin, that a lot of people don't really see this as a problem, don't really see climate change as a problem. I go back to the history of kind of my career progression and things that I've done in a past life as well, too, and did a lot on kind of emergency planning for natural disasters and how, until something actually happens, people don't believe it's real. I know I've always said that the number one thing you can do to be prepared for any kind of natural hazard is to believe it will happen. I think with something like climate change, there's definitely a lot more in the news. There's a lot more people are talking about climate change is real.

But ultimately, do you think it comes down to people maybe aren't educated enough about what those impacts from climate change could be? Or is there something that we can maybe do? Or where do you think we need to go to maybe raise the awareness of some people about what the impacts of climate change might be?

KR:

Sure. So I mean, I think people are becoming more and more worried about climate change. There's some great polling data that comes out of Yale University, they've been doing it for decades now, looking at the Yale program on climate change communication where they look at people's beliefs and concerns about climate change. You see that people in the US have become more and more concerned with climate change over time. By now, 57% fall into the categories that they call the most worried, the alarmed and the concerned camps. So it's a lot of people are really concerned.

But that doesn't necessarily mean, like just being worried about something doesn't mean that you know what to do about it or doesn't necessarily mean that you're informed about how it's going to affect the decisions that you're making. So if you're thinking about where to relocate or whether to take that job, there's a lot of other factors that are going to be top-of-minds, like the salary and housing prices and school districts and all that kind of stuff, that are going to be competing with your attention along with the climate impacts. And you may not know what the climate impacts are, or you may not know like if there's supposed to be major-

MBS:

Sure. There's no guarantee. Yeah.

KR:

Yeah. And you may not have done, unless you're in this field, you may not know like what the water situation is expected to be like there in 20 years. So I think there's a lot of other factors that are going on.

I also think that there's a lot of places where the economic signals just are... the policies are set up in a way that kind of dampen some of those signals that people might otherwise get about the risks from climate change. So you might have insurance that covers it and that's subsidized in a way that is dampening that signal or things like that.

So I think both as climate change happens more and as those policies might get changed or as insurers refuse to insure people in particular areas, I think those signals are going to come through a lot more strongly than they have been.

MBS:

I think you're right, and I think potentially one of the things that may drive that most is the insurance side of things that when people start getting... are unable to get insurance for their home because of the impacts of climate change on their property, then that is one thing that is having a major impact that people start to really have heightened awareness.

KR:

Yeah, exactly. And it's something that you become aware of at the time you might be moving and you're buying a home. So I think that particularly you know it from decision-making that the timing matters a lot.

MBS:

Okay. Here at CoreLogic, we've done research on kind of the riskiest places because of climate change and people moving out of these riskier places. I guess when we think, too, about the people accepting or the communities accepting these people coming in, what are people thinking in these places that generally maybe have not had the same influx of population and now we're seeing a greater influx of population because of people fleeing away from hurricane-prone states or wildfire-prone states because of either a bad event has happened or because they are potentially worried that something will happen in the future?

KR:

MBS:

Yeah, there's a lot that goes on with international migration, for sure. Yeah.

KR:

So I think that is part of why it's also they think they might be culturally different. So I think that there may be... that's where some of that fear is coming from.

When they are thinking about Americans moving to their towns, they actually just don't seem to have any picture of that at all. So it's all over the place. They seem to picture, imagine like wealthy Californians sometimes and so they have... and all the stereotypes that go with that. But a lot of times, even when we say, "A climate migrant is somebody who has to move because of climate change," and really lay out what this is and then ask what comes to mind, what people describe are snowbirds. They're like, "Oh, it's like retirees. They want to move south because it's too cold where they live." So I think a lot of people just don't, it's not even on their radar that Americans will have to move because of climate change and so-

MBS:

Right. And that this is a permanent move versus just a snowbird coming in for a few months as a holiday.

KR:

Exactly. So I think that there's a lot of variety because some people just aren't thinking about it at all.

MBS:

Sure. Yeah. That's really interesting. And I guess, too, I know that you've done some research specifically about the Rust Belt states and kind of the relationship that they have with climate migration. Can you just talk a bit about like why are these states so important to this conversation?

ES:

The Rust Belt is a region in the US where the country's manufacturing, steelmaking and coal production was historically located. In the mid-20th century, the region which largely encompasses the Midwest, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and western parts of New York, suffered decline due to foreign competition in a changing American economy.

KR:

Yeah. I live in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Michigan as a whole has had a declining population for years, and it's something that policymakers are really worried about. As young people and families move out of the state, sometimes we're having places where schools are having to consolidate, for example, because they don't have enough pupils.

MBS:

Sure. Yeah.

KR:

And a lot of places in the Midwest are these kind of Rust Belt towns where industry has moved out for various reasons and the population hasn't recovered.

But as it happens, Michigan and the Midwest as a whole is also a pretty big winner when it comes to climate change. I mean not a winner in that we will still feel lots of effects of climate change and it'll be negative. But compared to other places, we've got a lot of fresh water. We're starting off with a cooler climate. We're not as prone to wildfires. We're not on a coast, and so there's a lot of... Compared to a lot of parts of the country, we're a safer region. So there's some folks in the Midwest who are thinking about kind of positioning themselves as destinations for climate migrants and-

MBS:

Interesting, yeah.

KR:

... and what that might look like. So like Buffalo, New York, for example, the mayor of Buffalo started a whole advertising campaign to say, like, "Please come to... Move to Buffalo when you are flooded out of New York City or wherever else."

MBS:

Wow.

KR:

"And because we are going to be this great safe place for you."

Then there's other places like here in Ann Arbor. They're less using it as advertising and more thinking about, "Okay, if we are going to have climate migrants, like let's make sure we have the infrastructure that can handle them. Let's make sure we have like water and sewers-"

MBS:

Sure, yeah. It's huge, yeah.

KR:

"... for a whole bunch of new people." Yeah.

ES:

It's that time again. Grab a cup of coffee or your favorite beverage. We're going to do the numbers in the housing market. Here's what you need to know.

Although May marks the 148th consecutive month of annual growth, home price growth is slowing. States like Florida and Texas, where inventory has increased, are seeing prices below what was recorded last year. On the other hand, markets in the Northeast are still seeing price increases, which is linked to the limited inventory in these markets.

The states with the highest increases year-over-year, were New Hampshire, up 12%, and New Jersey and Rhode Island, both up 9.8%. At a city level, Miami and San Diego remain hot markets where prices grew 8.5% and 9.2%, respectively. And that's The Sip. See you next time.

MBS:

Okay. I guess, too, when I think of specifically not just domestic migration, but when we are looking at like international migration, my brain instantly is like, "Oh, people will leave the US." But no. The climate change is all over the place, so we're getting people from other countries potentially coming into the US. And I guess, can you talk a little bit about how we may be thinking about supporting, implementing different adaptability measures to keep people in their communities and just kind of how that's in the thought process of what people are thinking from a community perspective?

KR:

So yeah. In some of the experiments that we've run, we've looked at people's support for various policies that might help potential migrants. Some of those are policies to help people move either permanently or temporarily, and some of those are policies to help people's, home communities adapt to climate change, to like send money for infrastructure so that people from those communities won't have to move because they'll be better suited, more resilient to the effects of climate change.

MBS:

Right. So to kind of keep them where they are versus them not necessarily needing or wanting to move to another community.

KR:

Exactly.

MBS:

Interesting.

KR:

And what we find is that our different ways of talking about climate migration don't really do much to change people's support for policies to help people move. That's really swamped by political party, political ideology.

But when it comes to policies to help people stay in their home communities, that's where we're seeing some effects. And what we find is that, again, when we're talking about this international cross-border migration, that, all of a sudden, people hear that and they are much more supportive of these policies to help people stay in their home communities to adapt. And I think it's a kind of, as you said, it's to help people. They're scared of migration, and so this is a way to help them, but keep them far away. And so that seems to be where people are willing to pay for that infrastructure.

MBS:

Interesting.

KR:

I think also part of it that's also in comparison to learning about domestic migration, and again, people just don't have this as a concept in their heads. And so it may not inspire much action of any kind because they just don't really understand it yet.

MBS:

Sure, yeah. No, it's fascinating because I mean, I think what we saw, I mean, we've talked on this podcast before about pandemic migration, about how people who have moved out of the cities a lot into the Midwest, into Texas where it's potentially a little bit cheaper, generally cheaper real estate, more home, you get a bigger home. I mean, I'm somebody that fell into this. I moved because I got a much bigger home.

But this is very different than that because it is, like that was an event, like a pandemic that drove people to, a lot of companies started having this hybrid work working from home, and then people had the ability to work elsewhere than in these major cities. But climate migration is a little bit different than that because it is something that it's not going to go away. It's not really changing. And I guess I love the initiative to try and make communities more prepared for climate change so that they can support the people that are in them to make them feel like they don't have to move out of these communities where you are.

ES:

KR:

Yeah, and I think the reality may be we're going to end up seeing both. There's only so much resilience you can do in the case of catastrophic climate change, so some places may just have to move.

But in other places, we're all going to need to become more resilient, even the places that I was talking about that may become destinations for climate migrants. We also need to become more resilient to climate change in order to adapt and survive as well.

MBS:

Yeah, absolutely. So, okay, just to kind of close, one thing that comes to mind is we've talked on this podcast before, and there's a lot of talk in the government sector about the Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC, passing this new ruling about the effects of climate change and how it's going to have impacts on publicly-traded companies and businesses.

But it's not just about businesses and banks that are going to have to worry about climate change, and people are also really working into the sustainability of their living situation.

ES:

Before we end this episode, let's take a break and talk about what's happening in the world of natural disasters. CoreLogic's Hazard HQ Command Central reports on natural catastrophes and extreme weather events across the world. A link to their coverage is in the show notes.

By July 9th, the storm had traveled over 4,000 miles to make its final landfall over Matagorda, Texas as a Category 1 cyclone. Despite being a Category 1 at landfall, Beryl was able to maintain hurricane strength for a long time and hurricane force winds were recorded in Houston as the storm continued to travel. CoreLogic estimates that insured wind losses in Texas will be approximately $3.2 billion. Record Atlantic Ocean temperatures have experts forecasting an active hurricane season.

MBS:

So, I guess, can you foresee in your crystal ball like where do you think the conversation is going to go on climate change migration and just the effects it's going to have kind of nationally as time continues?

KR:

I think that climate change is going to become and more top-of-mind for a lot of people as we go forward. We've seen like the public polling on climate change. You've seen this shift over time of people becoming more and more concerned about it. We also see generational shifts. So like younger generations are much more concerned about climate change. I mean, they're going to live through more of it. So I think as we see the effects more, as younger generations age into becoming voters and people making decisions, including policy leaders and people who might buy homes or decide where they're going to start and build their families and lives, I think we're going to see people factoring climate change into both their individual action decisions and policy decisions more and more going forward. So that's my crystal ball, and I think that's going to include migration, but also all sorts of fun other things.

MBS:

I'm sure it will. This is a topic that is not going to go away, and I'm really interested to see on where the conversation does go in the future.

So Kaitlin, thank you so much for joining me today on Core Conversations, a CoreLogic podcast.

KR:

Thanks so much.

MBS:

And thank you for listening. I hope you've enjoyed our latest episode. Please remember to leave us a review and let us know your thoughts and subscribe wherever you get your podcast to be notified when new episodes are released. And thanks to the team for helping bring this podcast to life, producer Jessi Devenyns, editor and sound engineer Romie Aromin, our Facts Guru Erika Stanley, and social media duo, Sarah Buck and Makaila Brooks. Tune in next time for another Core Conversation.

ES:

You still there? Well, thanks for sticking around. Are you curious to know a little bit more about our guest today?

Well, Dr. Kaitlin Raimi is an associate professor of public policy at the University of Michigan. As a social psychologist, she studies how psychological and social motivations promote or prevent sustainable behaviors, especially those related to climate change. Dr. Raimi is particularly interested in climate change communication, how people compare their own beliefs and behaviors to those of other people, and how one adopting one sustainable behavior affects subsequent environmental actions and policy support.

She also has ongoing work on people's perceptions of climate-related technologies and climate-induced migration and beliefs about tampering with the natural world. She completed a PhD in social psychology from Duke University and a postdoctoral fellowship at Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment.