This week Andy is talking while Jed is walking…hiking the Camino Trail with his wife, Amy. Andy is talking with Morgan Polikoff, Associate Professor of Education at the University of Southern California(USC)’s Rossier School of Education. 

Their conversation focuses on public opinion on education, particularly parent opinion, and the similarities and differences of post-pandemic K-12 experiences for students, parents, and families. A theme running through the discussion is how to build and use an accurate data model to overcome the overt political efforts to drive a wedge between parents and the public education system, shed light on the issues, and to create a healthy culture of free expression to work through complicated issues (e.g., transgender, sports, gay rights, and controversial topics and diversity in the curriculum).  

For those of you who would prefer a video recording, we provide a link to YouTube as well.  

References & Notes:

• The UAS Education Project data, documentation, and publications focused on “Understanding Coronavirus in America” by USC Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research (CSER)’s Center for Applied Research in Education (CARE)’s Understanding America Study (UAS) Education Project: https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php

• Morgan Polikoff’s book, Beyond Standards: The Fragmentation of Governance and the Promise of Curriculum Reform: https://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Standards-Fragmentation-Governance-Curriculum/dp/1682536114/ref=sr_1_1?crid=TWUZ7FDJ0BKS&keywords=beyond+standards&qid=1697491913&sprefix=beyond+standards%2Caps%2C124&sr=8-1

• A Controversial Topics Report from USC Dornsife CSER and USC Rossier School of Education: https://www.ednc.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/House_Divided.pdf

• Bellwether’s Common Ground: How Public K-12 Schools Are Navigating Pandemic Disruptions and Political Trends: https://bellwether.org/publications/common-ground/

• Politico’s “Virginia Went to War Over History. And Students Actually Came Out on Top.”: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/09/glenn-youngkin-history-wars-virginia-00113958

Morgan, welcome.

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Morgan Polikoff: Thank you.

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Pleasure to be here.

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Andy Rotherham: It's

really great to see you.

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Thanks for doing this.

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Morgan Polikoff: Yeah, my pleasure.

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Andy Rotherham: So those of you

who are regular, uh, listeners or

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viewers will notice something's

a little different here.

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Um, we've got Morgan Polikoff from USC.

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I'm going to introduce him in a sec.

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Jed is overseas, uh, on a

fantastic, uh, family trip.

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And so Morgan, you know, we, we can't

do the show without a Californian.

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So Morgan, uh, gratefully agreed

to, uh, step in and, and pinch it.

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So before we get into it though, Morgan,

I was hoping, um, you know, for, for

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the wonky folk, uh, crowd, talk a little

bit about, uh, what you do now and a

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little bit your background in education.

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Morgan Polikoff: Sure, yeah.

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So I'm a professor at USC in

the Rossier School of Education.

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I study, uh, for a long

time I've studied standards.

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based reform policies.

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So, um, you know, going back

to the No Child Left Behind

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era and then Common Core.

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I wrote a book on that topic in

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And, uh, then another thing that I

do is I'm kind of like a, you know,

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quote unquote, public intellectual.

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And so over time, that's

evolved in various ways.

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But one thing that I do a lot

of these days is I look at

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public opinion on education.

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So I've I've directed some state and

nationally representative surveys focused

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on education policy and, and since

COVID as well, I've co directed the

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education portion of something called

the Understanding America Study, and

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we've really tracked American families

educational experiences since COVID.

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So, um, so yeah, I pay a lot of attention

to public opinion and, and public,

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uh, uh, you know, what's going on in

education policy around the country.

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Andy Rotherham: Yeah, and I should add

Morgan's a fantastic Twitter follow.

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So if you want to, uh, um, or

I guess, what do we say now?

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An X?

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Morgan Polikoff: I mean,

it's down the tube.

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There's nothing left

there anyway, but sure.

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Andy Rotherham: Um, yeah, but you're

still, I mean, Morgan, if you want to

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follow this work and we're going to

get in some of the public opinion stuff

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today and Morgan's going, I don't know.

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Are you on any of the other,

like, there's all the other,

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Morgan Polikoff: yeah, I have any

questions I made an account on blue sky.

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The problem with blue sky is it's all

academics, which is, um, a little bit

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boring because academics are boring.

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So the spice of, you know,

the spice of Twitter, right?

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The journalists and the

policy wonks and the D.

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C.

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people, and then the random loons,

you know, you just don't get

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that when it's all professors.

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So, yeah.

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Andy Rotherham: I think it's a little bit.

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I've been thinking about it.

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It's like, you know, like the problem

in the Republican primary is like,

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there's too many alternatives.

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And so they can't like unite

around an alternative to Trump.

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Morgan Polikoff: Yeah...

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Andy Rotherham: it's the exact

same problem in social media.

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Now there's just like all these

other platforms, but none of them

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have achieved critical mass yet.

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And so like Twitter X, you know, sort

of just limps along because it's,

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it's, it's, it's the only one that

still has like any kind of a critical

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mass.

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Morgan Polikoff: And I think the reality

is that there's never going to be a

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perfect replacement for it, and we all

just have to get used to that, and so,

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you know, those of us who really loved

Twitter in its heyday, and I am certainly

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one of them, um, you know, it is, it is a

loss, uh, that, that, uh, this is Platform

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seems to have been destroyed for as far

as I could tell virtually no reason.

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Andy Rotherham: Yeah, I don't know We'll

have to muddle through without a place.

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We can all go in the public square

and yell at each other 20 24 7 um Uh,

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so before we get into the the stuff,

you know We'll we're gonna jump in on

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some of these big opinion questions

particularly stuff with parents, but i'm

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always just interested Um, and this is

something I've never asked you before.

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So I'm genuinely curious.

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Like, what was your experience in school?

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Like, like what was your, like, you

know, growing up, where'd you grow up and

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what was your relationship with school?

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Morgan Polikoff: Um, you

know, I was really fortunate.

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My, uh, my parents moved to a town called

Hinsdale, which is a suburb of Chicago.

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Um, right before I was born, um,

well regarded public schools.

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I went to great public schools,

you know, K through 12.

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And, you know, I mean, I have a

sort of typical high achieving

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kid experience in schools, right?

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I was like, always the teacher's pet.

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I was, I did really well on tests.

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Everything kind of came easy to me.

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Um, I was very fortunate, you know, that

the school system was set up to reward.

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People with my particular skill set,

um, and, uh, and went to undergraduate

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then at a public university at the

University of Illinois and started to

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learn in my education program there about

some of the inequities that frankly,

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I was just too naive and unaware to

really learn, um, when I was younger

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about our education systems, right?

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So, you know, I lived in a bubble and,

and I, I didn't realize it at the time.

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Certainly now I do.

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Um, but I think, you know, what,

what that experience really taught

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me is, um, and then some of my other

experiences, you know, going into

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classrooms as a student teacher or

doing research in schools was just like.

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How unbelievably unequal the system is

and how, you know, the many, many ways

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that it's stacked against, um, you know,

kids from low income families or kids,

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uh, you know, black and brown kids.

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And so that's really been a motivating,

um, factor for me, um, over the years.

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Andy Rotherham: And then what

brought you to California?

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Is that USC?

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That's what?

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Morgan Polikoff: Yeah.

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Yeah.

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So I, so I did my PhD.

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I started at Vanderbilt and then

I finished it at Penn cause I

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followed my advisor who had moved.

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And then, uh, yeah.

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And then I got this job at USC.

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It's the only real full time

job I've ever had in my life.

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Um, and, uh, 14 years later, here I am.

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So, um, All right.

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Andy Rotherham: So, fantastic.

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And you're in that broad bucket

of people whose school was, like,

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very validating, and it was a place

you enjoyed, you enjoyed being.

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And so, you, you, is, is that,

that's what I heard you say?

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Morgan Polikoff: Absolutely.

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I mean, I will say that there were, you

know, there were some small things, right?

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So, like, I was, Gay and I knew

that I was gay in high school

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and this was a different time.

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It was the like, uh, what, late nineties.

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And we weren't quite there yet in

terms of like what public schools were

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interested in doing to support gay kids.

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And so some of that experience certainly

has, uh, you know, has affected me

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and the way I think about how schools.

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Should support lgbt youth

but um, but yeah, no overall.

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I mean just uh, really Extremely

fortunate with my k 12 experience.

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Andy Rotherham: Well, let's come back to

that on on the supporting lgbt kids and

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and what that looks like but just start

like with this broad question like It's

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an impossible question because there's,

you know, over 50 million kids and

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their families, but what is the broadly

speaking post pandemic, like what's the

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same with the relationship with schools

and what's different now, uh, with,

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with the parent, uh, family sort of

relationship with, with, with schools.

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Morgan Polikoff: Yeah.

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I mean, I think what I would say is

it sort of, um, put into very stark

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relief, the sort of, heterogeneity, to

use a very wonky term, in the system,

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in all its different forms, right?

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So, one thing that I think that we

learned was, on average, um, and I

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think we could all agree on this, right?

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On average, kids learn somewhat

less than they would have if they

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had been in school in person.

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But actually, there was a big

distribution there, right?

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And some kids actually did

just fine in online learning.

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And when you talk to their parents,

they'll tell you they did just fine.

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And And even, you know, yes, on average,

there's been a test score decline, but

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for lots of kids, it's much smaller than

that, or there's been no decline at all.

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And for lots of kids, it's

been much bigger than that.

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Right.

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So it really exacerbated things.

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I think socially as well, right?

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Some kids.

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Absolutely thrived in the online setting.

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They didn't let school was not

a welcoming place for them.

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Uh, they were bullied or they

were just, uh, introverted.

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I mean, we hear this all the

time when we talk to people and

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they liked being online, right?

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And, and other kids, it was

a total disaster, right?

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There were kids who needed

that social interaction.

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And so, so I think it, so I

think it exposed that variation.

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I think it, it also exposed the

variation in, in the ways that schools

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were responding to things, right?

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You know, in those early days,

it was, it was like, it really

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highlighted the local control issue.

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I mean, to someone like me, who pays

a lot of attention to and thinks

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about that all the time, right?

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Like, Um, states, a lot of state, you

know, states weren't really giving

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guidance to schools about what was going

on or what decisions they should make.

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You had 13, 000 school boards making

these armchair decisions about, you know,

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health and masking and vaccines and stuff

that they, and even school reopening.

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And so it just highlighted, I think, in

many ways all the dysfunctions in the

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system and, uh, and really, you know,

then it just like crystallized, um,

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those in a number of different ways.

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And so what I, what I think that

you see is that You know, overall,

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people actually think that the

school system did okay during COVID.

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I mean, if you, if you, there

are surveys that ask parents

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about that, and by and large, the

school systems get decent marks.

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Um, but there's, there's that 10, 20

percent who thinks it was terrible.

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And that's because I think it was,

everyone had such different experiences.

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And for some kids, what was acceptable

for other kids was a disaster.

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And all that variation was

actually within school, right?

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All that variation was actually within

school, not necessarily between schools.

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Right.

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So, um, and it's, it's, I think

it's, so that, that, that's

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my sort of high level tech,

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Andy Rotherham: was some of that politics

was like in, in some place where like a

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social desirability bias around, cause

it became, I thought one of the things

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I thought was interesting, you said like

all these schools, these 13, 000 were

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trying locally to make these decisions.

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And then at the same time, what

was happening was this like

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incredible nationalization.

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Of covid and you know, Donald

Trump was having those crazy press

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conferences every day and people were

looking for like to to to national

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solutions to these local problems.

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And in that context, obviously,

it got political very fast.

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Yeah.

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Um, so do you think some of this

also in terms of the way people

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respond to what they say is there's

just like a, which team are you on?

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And so there's sort of a social

desirability bias around, like, how you

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perceive this and what you're willing

to sort of look the other way on.

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Morgan Polikoff: To some extent.

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I mean, so I would say this.

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I think if you're talking about

parents, I think less so than if

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you're talking about general citizens.

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Right?

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And one thing that I have noticed

recently, I would say, and some of the

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opinion data of various kinds is that

there's a divergence between parents,

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people who have a stake in the system

and people who really don't or don't

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have kids in the system right now.

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I think for parents, when you

talk to them, um, Um, whether it's

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interviews or surveys, you just

sit down and have a conversation.

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They, they can be very frank about

how COVID went for their kids.

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They know what worked and what didn't.

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If they're going to be critical

of the system, they're going

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to be critical of the system.

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And I think that that's true pretty much

whether they're Democrats or Republicans.

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Um, although there are, I think we're,

listen, we're all affected by partisanship

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to some extent, even those of us who

would like to pretend that we're not.

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Andy Rotherham: Yeah, absolutely.

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Do you think that's more acute now?

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I mean, there's always been a gap.

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You know, you ask parents to grade the

schools, you ask, you know, non parents

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that community grade the schools.

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I mean, that gap has always

existed to some extent.

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Do you think it's, it's more pronounced

just because education has become

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like become again, like more of

a, like discussed political issue.

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Morgan Polikoff: I would say so.

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I mean, I think, listen, I think

especially on the right, I think

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that there has been a frankly overt

effort to drive a wedge between

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parents and the public school system.

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I mean, you know, Chris Ruffo

said it on Twitter, right?

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So, uh, so there's no real surprise there.

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It's not controversial for me to say that.

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And I think that to some extent

that has been successful, right?

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So they've tied it.

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Um, you know, some pretty politically

unpopular things to public schools in

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a way that clearly has driven, I think,

especially people who don't actually

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have kids in the school and therefore

can't see the contradiction between

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what's being said and what's actually

happening, um, has driven a lot of

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that sort of negative partisanship.

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But, you know, I'm sure there are examples

of it coming from the left too, I'm sure.

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Andy Rotherham: You know, I mean, talk

more about that because it seems like

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you've got there's like two buckets.

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There's the like, you know, kids are

using litter boxes kind of stuff,

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which is, you know, is just absurd.

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And but like, you know, goes around.

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But then there's like this other

box of issues that actually are like

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policy issues that are being debated.

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And so people and people are gonna

be on different sides of that.

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So go go a little deeper on that,

because like, there's definitely

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some wedge issues being but there's

also like, there's just a lot of

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issues suddenly in play on schools.

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Morgan Polikoff: Yeah,

I think that's right.

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And I think that, you know, one

thing that is happening these days,

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right, is that a lot of it seems like

virtually every issue gets sort of

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like immediately gets attached to

partisan valence that you're supposed

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to feel about it in a particular way.

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Right.

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So, you know, one example could be,

um, which I said I didn't want to talk

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about, but the California math framework,

right, which has been a, which has gotten

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a particular partisan valence on it.

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Right.

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Right.

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Where, you know, folks from the right

are saying that the math framework is

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watering down expectations and kids

aren't going to get to calculus and

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it gets tied up in this republican

Democrat thing, although there are

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plenty of people who are Democrats

and liberals and, you know, and racial

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at, you know, racial justice advocates

who also express concern about it.

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And, um, so that's just an example

of the ways in which these things

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get sort of tied up pretty quickly.

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But I think we're kind of

regardless of the topic, right?

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There's lots of other examples, you know.

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Andy Rotherham: I mean, something

I've noticed is just in Virginia,

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like everything gets put through

a partisan lens, even when it's

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not because that's just now the

frame that everybody brings to it.

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Right.

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And so, like, if the state board has a

split vote, like, It's just reported as,

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it has to be a partisan split when often

the, there's a split vote, but it's split

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across like lines of who appointed Yeah.

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Uh, you know, governors for whatever

party appointed particular members.

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And that's been really interesting to me.

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But like that, that's just lost.

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It's just assumed that if it's split,

it's gonna be split on partisan lines.

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And I think you see that with like a

lot of things the way it's consumed now.

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Morgan Polikoff: Yeah, and I

mean, to be clear, and I'm not a

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political scientist or anything like

that, but my understanding is that

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Andy Rotherham: you play one

on Twitter, so it's alright.

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Morgan Polikoff: That, that like

the salience of political identity

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is huge and growing, right?

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And so, so these kinds of things.

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Happen.

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I mean that people attach.

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I mean, it's just, it's just a, it's

just a very meaningful thing to people.

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The partisanship, you know, this

partisanship and the partisan

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identity in a way that didn't

used to be so much right.

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That like in the olden days, you might

have had neighbors and you didn't

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even know what their partisan identity

was or maybe, or maybe you voted for

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people of different parties, but you

were actually quite similar on issues.

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And these days it's like everything

gets split right on partisanship.

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And then also, I think there's

this view that like, Okay.

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If you're on the wrong side, you're

a bad person, which also, you know,

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uh, is, it's just really toxic.

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I mean, it's terrible.

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Andy Rotherham: Yeah, it is.

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And what do you think

is the effect of that?

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Cause we're seeing that

in the data as well.

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We're seeing there's two things.

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One, voters are indicating that

they're more willing to subsume

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their own education preferences.

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Two, larger political and partisan

concerns, and so that creates a

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problem for like issues like charter

schools and school choice and so forth.

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And then the 2nd thing, which is

sort of very related is just an

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increasing amount of just preference

falsification where people are saying

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stuff that they don't actually think.

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And there's been some interesting

work on that, but they, they

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are staying with the in group.

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Uh, because of their other political

preferences, like, first of all,

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do you think those things are

happening to a meaningful degree?

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And like, if so, what does that mean

for, I mean, you do study education.

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What does that mean for education

policymaking if we're in sort of a

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house of mirrors environment like that

or political house mirrors, I guess?

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Morgan Polikoff: It's a good question.

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I mean, I think at the same time, I think

that we shouldn't overstate the extent to

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which all of these trends are permanent

or that things can't happen rapidly.

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I mean, I think, you know, one

of the sort of taken for granted.

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So I'm dodging your question because

I don't have a good answer for it.

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But I think one of one of the

sort of taken for granted.

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Views of American politics in the

last couple decades is about racial

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demographics in particular, right?

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And so like that black and

Hispanic voters are Democrats.

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And I think clearly they have

been and national elections.

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But also, I think that, you know, recent

election results have showed that black

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and Hispanic voters are, can be convinced

to vote for Republicans and, and, and

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especially that, that, that those groups

are not a monolith by any stretch, right?

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That Hispanic voters in certain regions

look very different from Hispanic voters

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in other regions, that there are, that

there are effective angles for peeling

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off those voters and that culture issues

can sometimes be effective in that regard.

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And, um, so, so, you know, I think there's

this sort of view that everything only

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heads in one direction, and I don't

believe that, I think that, that things

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can change very rapidly, you know, I mean,

no one would have predicted Trump or that,

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or that Trump would have had such enormous

long tails, you know, even though he's

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been indicted so many times by now, um,

and, and he's going to continue to have

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tails, even if he goes to prison or even

if he gets elected president again, right?

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Like, No one could predict that.

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Andy Rotherham: Yeah.

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Yeah.

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No, I think that, I think that's right.

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There is.

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And, and like it, but it is interesting.

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Like I, I couldn't, you couldn't help but

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just no one was appreciating that like the

one group of voters that Trump, you know,

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um, wasn't making inroads with, and this

is what, you know, you saw this clearly

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the exits was, was white men, right.

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Other groups he was making inroads and.

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Because politics is,

it's, it's complicated.

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And to your earlier point,

we've gotten into these very

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reductionist political frames.

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And you're seeing this like a real

liability, uh, for, for Biden going into

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2024 is, will there be an erosion of

support, um, uh, among minority voters?

362

Do you think education is

playing a role in that?

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Morgan Polikoff: I don't know.

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I mean, I think that there are

lots of barriers to education

365

being sort of a salient.

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National political issue.

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I just think, uh, you know, what

even are the national, I mean, what

368

even are national education policies?

369

What role does the federal

government play on education issues?

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I think the, just the vast majority of

people are making decisions on a lot

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of other things before they would even

come to education, you know, abortion,

372

I think will be one that like clearly

Democrats want to have high salience.

373

I think the economy is one

that Republicans, you know,

374

want to have high salience.

375

Uh, the war, I mean, there's a war in

Israel that just started last week, and

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who knows what impact that could have.

377

His age, I mean, there's just

so many issues to me that

378

come way before education.

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So is it possible that there

are some marginal voters who

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that really affects their vote?

381

I guess.

382

But as someone who studies education

and cares a lot about education,

383

I think it would be really wild

to base your vote for president.

384

on their education views.

385

Andy Rotherham: They used to ask a

question, the Post used to ask a question

386

in their polls, and they stopped doing

it, it was too bad, it was, they basically

387

would ask you if you were going to vote on

a single issue, like would this issue be

388

it, and education was always around 10%.

389

So about 10 percent of voters said,

and then you looked at some other

390

issues, like guns, abortion, like much

higher percentage of voters were like,

391

I would not vote for a candidate who

didn't share my position on this this

392

particular issue was only 10 percent on

education was always a soft, um, it was

393

always a soft issue, but just backing

up, I mean, like Hispanic Americans and

394

black Americans are more conservative

culturally as voters again, like in our

395

sector that doesn't show up so much,

um, uh, in terms of the professional

396

class, but just overall, like that is it.

397

And our sector is way to the

left of the median, obviously.

398

Like, so do you think like, I mean, some

of this stuff, it just seems like, and

399

we're seeing some evidence on this, you

know, abortion is obviously a millstone

400

for the Republicans that they haven't

figured out how to deal with yet, but

401

on some of these other issues, it seems

like there's a way to make inroads with

402

more culturally conservative voters

on, on, on a number of these issues.

403

Morgan Polikoff: I think, I think so.

404

I think certainly they're trying,

um, you know, and I mean, you

405

can see this in the sort of.

406

edge case scenarios that Republicans

like to talk endlessly about, especially

407

with regard to trans issues, which I

think is like, you know, the case where

408

public opinion is probably the softest.

409

Um,

410

Andy Rotherham: what do you

mean by softest on, on, on,

411

unpack what do you mean by that?

412

Morgan Polikoff: I just mean in terms

of what the public actually believes

413

about trans people and what they support.

414

I mean, uh, not just in schools,

but in general, I think.

415

I mean, first of all, a lot of people

just don't understand what it is.

416

And second of all, I think that, you know,

like with, you know, like with gay rights,

417

which took a very long time for there to

be majority support for gay rights, right?

418

That didn't happen until,

like, What the two thousands...

419

last decade.

420

Yeah, right.

421

Um, uh, you know, and it took ages

and I mean, you know, we were perverts

422

and pedophiles for a very long time.

423

And then all of a sudden

now we're not right.

424

And, you know, and, uh, I think with trans

is just another group that, um, I think

425

often gets lumped together with gay for

political for lots of reasons, right?

426

We're sexual minorities in various ways.

427

And we have, I think, some similar issues.

428

But I think, um, you know, it's not

obvious that just because a majority of

429

people supports gay marriage means that

a majority of people, people supports

430

all different varieties of trans rights.

431

And I might personally support all

of those varieties of trans rights,

432

and I do, but I think that, you

know, there are these edge cases that

433

people like to bring up, you know,

at, you know, young, uh, con, um, uh,

434

what's the, transitioning for, for

kids who are pre pubescent, right?

435

That, that would be an example.

436

Um, Sports teams, girls sports teams.

437

God, how much are we talking about girls

sports teams for what are probably like 10

438

cases in the entire United States, right?

439

And so these kinds of issues

where I think, yeah, they probably

440

can appeal to people with more

small c conservative values.

441

Andy Rotherham: Yeah, let's stay on that

for a second, because I, I do, like, the

442

thing that has struck me, the gay rights

movement picked, like, very attractive

443

valence topics, so marriage, like, it

was basically, look, you're not losing

444

anything here, but why shouldn't people

have, be able to marry whomever they want?

445

You sort of, to your earlier point,

That issue evolved very quickly.

446

I mean, Obama was opposed to gay marriage

447

evolved, but it like, it made intuitive

sense to people, um, and started to

448

enjoy the strong support it enjoys now.

449

Cause it was just like, well, you're not

losing anything and why shouldn't people

450

have access to this, to this right?

451

And the interesting thing on

the trans issues with schools

452

is it's really difficult issues.

453

So we, you know, we've

picked the two big ones.

454

are this issue of should schools

conceal transitions from parents,

455

which polls absolutely terribly.

456

I mean, I'm sure you've, you've

seen the polling and then sports.

457

And it's like, these are not necessarily

meanwhile, like 70 percent of people

458

say you shouldn't, there should be

anti discrimination policies in place.

459

to protect trans people and trans kids.

460

Like that's like a, you know, a strong

majority position right now, but instead

461

like the targets have become these like

very divisive issues where the public's

462

not there and the case can actually, in my

view, be pretty, be hard to make the case,

463

the case of athletics is a tricky one at

the level of like really elite athletics.

464

Yeah.

465

Um, and it's like, it's like they've,

they've, they've good successful

466

movements, pick really smart targets.

467

Right.

468

And like Martin Luther King was

like brilliant as a strategist on

469

picking really, really smart targets.

470

Gandhi did that.

471

And they've picked like some unpopular

targets, which are not only to your

472

point, making it toxic, just are

also making it like politically

473

just throwing up headwinds.

474

Do you, I mean, do you see it like that?

475

Morgan Polikoff: Um, yeah, I mean, I,

listen, there's, it's clear that, as

476

you say, right, that movements pick

targets and some targets are, are, you

477

know, are, are better and worse from

the standpoint of being defensible, I

478

think, to the general public and, you

know, and in terms of where support

479

is headed, in terms of like appeals

to fairness and people's basic values.

480

Absolutely.

481

Um, you know, and some of these issues I

think are, are legitimately tricky, right?

482

I mean, both of those issues that

you raised are legitimately tricky.

483

As an, as a gay man myself, I can

say that I was out to friends in high

484

school, and I was not out to my mother.

485

And if my teachers had taken it

upon themselves to tell my mother,

486

that would have been bad and very

traumatic, even though my mom

487

is fine and wonderful, right?

488

And like came around and

I was not ready for that.

489

And I think that that

would be a disaster, right?

490

And so, but on the other

hand, I understand the other

491

side of the argument, right?

492

What sounds like concealment,

you know, could be seen by the

493

educators as they're protecting the

interests of kids and they're just

494

Andy Rotherham: Can I ask you a question?

495

I appreciate you being so candid

on this and sharing, like, you've

496

twice now shared like real, you

know, personal aspects of your life.

497

Like, is part of, like, I don't

think most people support a

498

policy of sort of outing a kid.

499

So finding out, like, Morgan might

be gay, we should tell his parents.

500

But the issue is, like, are schools

going to actively transition kids?

501

Like, give them counseling,

things like that.

502

And, like, it seems to me...

503

Part of what's happened as these issues

have gotten more and more, um, toxic

504

and heated up is, like, just that gray

area that schools operate in, which

505

is not just about gay kids, it's about

a lot of stuff that kids are doing as

506

adolescents that schools are kind of

aware of, but not necessarily formally

507

aware, like, we, because some schools

went way over the line in terms of

508

respecting the rights of families in

that space, we've now like shrunk the

509

room for discretion, it's become like

a much more freighted conversation.

510

Whereas before you just wanted a little,

you just wanted a little bit of space.

511

So that was like, that

was like a healthy thing.

512

Do you, I mean, do you.

513

Do you know any sense?

514

Morgan Polikoff: Yeah, it does.

515

I mean, as I said, and I, and I believe

this, there's just not an answer here.

516

That's going to satisfy everyone.

517

And, uh, and I do think that you're right.

518

That with the sort of, you're right in an

extremely obvious, but nonetheless worth

519

saying way, which is picking out positions

that people really don't like on average.

520

And then, you know, forcing, uh,

conformity to those positions and if

521

you don't agree with those positions

that you're a bad person and a

522

heretic, that is not a good strategy.

523

And I think as, you know, and I have,

I, I can tell you many times people have

524

come up to me and said things about.

525

You know, very progressive people have

come up to me and said things about

526

trans issues in schools that they're

uncomfortable with that they would not say

527

aloud, even, you know, I mean, even I'm

having a little bit of discomfort about

528

having this conversation with you because

I'm thinking that, um, that someone might

529

take a sentence out of context and use

it to attack me and, uh, and, you know,

530

that's just the reality of the situation.

531

And I'm aware of what

I'm saying all the time.

532

Andy Rotherham: Yeah, no, it is, and

it's, and again, 'cause it's toxic

533

and it's like this game of Gotcha.

534

And like you would assume people, like,

I mean, I start from a place of like,

535

I think like we should champion both

sort of freedom and inclusion are like

536

two very, and, and our public schools

should, should, should model that.

537

But you're right, it's very, um, uh, it's

just very freighted and hot and it, it,

538

and then it's hard to, I, I don't see

how we solve this if we keep having these

539

conversations where it's like, You know,

people send you an email, but like, don't

540

tell anyone I said this, or I actually

agree on this, but I can't say it like,

541

like, we, like, we, we have to just get

back to more of a culture of like people.

542

I mean, and there, and we should be clear.

543

There are some people in this

debate who are not well intentioned.

544

There are some people who, like, I would,

I would characterize are like, haters

545

are not like, They're not people who are

just like, I don't think schools should

546

conceal things from parents and, but we

should also, you know, protect these kids.

547

They're people who go like much further,

but like a lot of the people in the

548

debate, I think are, are reasonable,

well intentioned, but you can't, how

549

do we possibly, without a more healthy

culture of free expression, work

550

through, as you just said, are like

really complicated questions, right?

551

Morgan Polikoff: Yeah, no.

552

And I mean, I think that, you know,

to some extent I would say what we

553

need are some good models, right?

554

We need models of policies and practices

that you know, that bring people together

555

rather than dividing them, that, that,

you know, that are broadly supportive,

556

but do protect the interests of children,

um, and, and I don't know, you know,

557

these are very difficult questions, right?

558

And so, but I do think we

need some of that, right?

559

Rather than, you know, turning, you

know, calling something a book ban or

560

saying that you're trying to indoctrinate

children, sort of both of which are kind

561

of not really true most of the time.

562

Right?

563

Like, what is a reasonable policy on,

like, what should a history curriculum

564

include in terms of, you know, the

represent, you know, the contributions

565

of people of color, the contributions of

women and LGBT individuals, you know, all

566

kinds, all these difficult conversations.

567

We need models, right, that we can...

568

That are real.

569

Andy Rotherham: You know what's crazy?

570

It goes to this thing, like,

if you get, I, I don't know if

571

you've had a chance to read it.

572

Virginia's uh, high school curriculum

now on both sort of the gay rights

573

movement and then like some of the

legal cases, particularly Obergfel

574

is actually really strong on this.

575

But because it's Virginia, nobody,

like everybody, for your point,

576

everybody's so in their corners, right?

577

People just assume a set of things, which

brings me like, I like the work you do.

578

I think like one model is just how do we

get back to analyzing things sort of as

579

they are, not necessarily the rightness

and wrongness, but with public opinion,

580

just being like, here is the landscape.

581

Here is what people think.

582

Here is the political.

583

Behavior we're seeing without immediately

getting it freighted with like who's

584

right or wrong or what we believe.

585

I feel like we've lost the ability

just to say, Hey, you know what?

586

20 percent of people think this.

587

You may think that they're the

correct 20% or they're the wrong 20%.

588

You may not have a strong opinion, but

we, we can't even get to like it's 20%.

589

We, we, we immediately like, so talk about

that and like in your own work, analyzing

590

public opinion, how that shows up.

591

Morgan Polikoff: Yeah, absolutely.

592

I mean, listen, I think it's actually

a much bigger problem than you

593

raise, I think with pretty much.

594

The whole social sciences, um, that

a large proportion of people in the

595

social sciences in general and an

education research in particular come

596

to research with the answer that they

want already in front of them, right?

597

That they know what they

want the research to find.

598

And it's just impossible to believe

that that doesn't, you know, I mean,

599

that shapes the questions you ask that

shapes your interpretations of the data.

600

It shapes whether you even would

share results that run counter to,

601

you know, your conclusions and, and

this is not just a left problem,

602

although I think it, you know,

certainly the overwhelming majority of.

603

People in education research are left.

604

Um, I am quite left and I am to the right

of most people that I know in my field.

605

Um, but it's a right problem too.

606

And you can see that on, you know,

I mean, school choice people who

607

who's conveniently every single

study they've ever published on

608

school choice has a positive effect.

609

Right?

610

So, like.

611

It's, it's not hard to find these things.

612

Andy Rotherham: Or you move the goalposts.

613

Morgan Polikoff: Yeah, absolutely.

614

Andy Rotherham: It's

not about test scores.

615

It was like the most important thing,

suddenly it's a whole new thing.

616

Morgan Polikoff: Right, it's not

about test scores, it's about

617

parent satisfaction or whatever.

618

So, listen, I'm one of these old timey

people who believes in like, trying to be

619

objective and trying to get to the truth,

which I think some people, you know, I

620

mean we could have a whole conversation

about whether there is a truth to But,

621

um, but, I mean, I think the reality

of the, you know, I think to go back to

622

the same example of gay rights, right?

623

Like, how was gay rights, how did that

happen in a very short time, you know?

624

I mean, it was a long time, but

then it was a short time, right?

625

And, you know, when I was a

kid, when I was in high school,

626

like, being gay was still bad.

627

And within 10 years, that was

not the case anymore, right?

628

And how did that happen?

629

Through Y'know, Through, you know, through

public figures making statements, through

630

people coming out of the closet, coming

out of the closet, through, I think, media

631

had a huge role, you know, television and

movies, and lots of other things, too.

632

Um, and I think that, but it's

important to understand where

633

people are for lots of reasons.

634

I mean, at its most basic level,

I want Democrats to win elections.

635

And I think that you have to understand

where your policy positions are.

636

are supported and opposed, where they're

winning you votes and losing you votes.

637

And so to know the reality of

how people view issues related to

638

controversial topics in the curriculum,

which is a report that we put out

639

last year and we're doing another

survey, it's in the field right now.

640

Um, it's really essential, right?

641

You know, I, I think as a kid,

again, as a gay kid growing up in

642

public schools, it would have been

great to have positive role models

643

about LGBT people in the curriculum.

644

I think people actually are

pretty supportive of that for high

645

school kids, but they're really

not for elementary school kids.

646

Andy Rotherham: Even for role models?

647

Morgan Polikoff: I think the

contributions of LGBT people is one

648

topic that can work in elementary

schools, but you know, in general, other

649

kinds of LGBT related topics like...

650

The, you know, same sex couples or, you

know, Children with same sex parents.

651

People are squishy on

that for elementary kids.

652

And so, and that's a challenge.

653

Um, and, and I think that

that will change over time.

654

And I think that there are probably

more specific examples that you could

655

come up with that people will be

comfortable with, even if they're not

656

comfortable with the broad category.

657

But yeah, absolutely.

658

It's important to know these things.

659

Um, if you're gonna, you know, if you're

going to drive change and I think.

660

And just also, it's just important

to know the truth of things.

661

So it's a good way for me as a, as

a, as a, uh, a gay college professor

662

in Los Angeles, who's in the most

ridiculous bubble you ever saw?

663

Andy Rotherham: You're telling me

you're the median voter in the country.

664

Morgan Polikoff: All right, yeah, exactly.

665

It's important to get outside your

bubble and actually data gets you

666

outside your bubble, if you let it.

667

Andy Rotherham: Yeah, no, I mean, I think

that's like super, we use a book sometimes

668

that, that, you know, that this, uh, Julia

Galef wrote this book, The Scout Mindset.

669

And like, just this idea that,

like, you need an accurate map.

670

It doesn't mean, like, If you

just agree with whatever public

671

opinion is, you're a windsock.

672

It's not, it's not about that, but it's

just like you just need to, you need to

673

know and to your point to win elections,

whichever party you're in, you need

674

like an accurate view of the landscape.

675

I was like the Democrats.

676

I think they underestimated, um,

how popular some of DeSantis's early

677

childhood policies were, and then.

678

Consequently, they were out of position

for when he overplayed his hand on

679

extending all that stuff to high school.

680

Right.

681

And like, if you had, if you had

actually analyzed the public opinion

682

properly, you would have been

in a better position to attack.

683

And instead they, you know, the Democrats

came off like the boy who cried wolf with

684

some policies that were like DeSantis

said, like, you know, I've said this

685

before, he has no limiting principle.

686

And so he like staked out some

like really unpopular ground.

687

Yeah.

688

Morgan Polikoff: Yeah, absolutely.

689

Yeah, I agree.

690

Andy Rotherham: Um, so, okay.

691

So in your own work, I'm just

curious, like when you're working

692

with graduate students and you're

like, how does that show up?

693

How are you like, because I think

you're, I think the way you described

694

the situation, but it is, everybody gets

upset when you both sides, but it is

695

both sides like are doing all kinds of.

696

Um, really sort of motivated

reasoning around stuff.

697

So, like, how do you and your teaching

and work with students in your work?

698

Like, how do you guard against that?

699

Morgan Polikoff: Um, I mean, the thing

about me is that I am, like, very

700

authentically who I am at all times.

701

And so it's very hard for me not to,

it's very hard for me to do anything

702

other than what I just described, right?

703

So, like, I'm, you know, we did this

controversial topics report, I think last

704

year, it definitely came up with some

conclusions that I wish were not true.

705

Um, about what people think about

LGBT topics and race related

706

topics in the curriculum, but

that's what the data showed, right?

707

And so now there are ways to write about

it and, uh, you know, in ways that,

708

um, I mean, the thing is this, right?

709

So, like, we put out the report.

710

I think it was pretty straightforward.

711

And I think, you know, tells the

story of the data very accurately.

712

And then it's another thing

to then go write a commentary

713

about your concerns about.

714

Thank you.

715

Those conclusions, right?

716

So like, as an example, one of my former

students, who's now a researcher at

717

the center that I work with, he wrote

a piece about the finding that, that

718

parents basically think they should have

more control and be able to opt their

719

kids out of lessons they disagree with.

720

And he wrote about.

721

How logistically that's unworkable,

and it would be a disaster for

722

various other reasons as well.

723

And, and I fully, I didn't co author

that with him, but I fully support his

724

argument and agree with him on that topic.

725

Um, but that's different from

writing in the report what it

726

is that the data actually show.

727

Andy Rotherham: Right, right.

728

Morgan Polikoff: And so, you know,

I mean, listen, I have opinions.

729

Clearly, if you follow me on

Twitter, you see all my opinions.

730

But I think what you, I think what

is hopefully also clear is that...

731

I'm a straight shooter in terms of

what the data show and I just model

732

that for my students all the time

because that's just how I can't, I

733

can't do it any other way than that.

734

Andy Rotherham: Well, it's the sign

and they used to say, like, you know,

735

keeping 2 opposing ideas in your

head is a sign of a first rate mind.

736

I also think, and this is a compliment

to you, I think the ability to actually

737

do that and to sort of go between those

2 roles, like, is, is, is the sign of

738

a strong mind and we just don't have

enough of it in the, in the sector.

739

And sometimes you just want to

know, tell me if it's raining

740

or if it's going to snow.

741

I don't really care about

your views on the weather.

742

I just want to know what's going on.

743

I don't really care if you like

sunny days or rainy days or whatever.

744

Um, and it's harder and harder to

sort of get that kind of accurate

745

forecasting, which we need, which brings

you the last thing I want to talk to

746

you about before I let you go, you've

been really generous with your time.

747

There seems to be a disconnect

between what we're seeing

748

show up in a lot of data.

749

So state tests, NAEP tests, various

commercial formative assessments,

750

you know, map and, um, you know,

curriculum associates stuff and

751

all of that, a huge disconnect

between that and what parents think.

752

Yeah.

753

So you study this and as we now

establish, you have a first rate mind.

754

So tell us what the hell's going on.

755

Morgan Polikoff: Yeah.

756

It's this really

remarkable finding, right?

757

So if you ask experts for the most

part, not all people, but experts

758

are really concerned, you know,

we're talking about learning loss.

759

We're talking about decline,

historic declines on NAEP or,

760

or, or pick an assessment.

761

Um, and, and not just test scores, right.

762

It's other stuff too.

763

It's behavior and attendance and.

764

Lots of different things.

765

And then you ask parents about it.

766

And we've done this on our surveys.

767

But other people have found it too.

768

And, and parents just

aren't that concerned.

769

Um, on average, they're

not that concerned.

770

In fact, I've seen a

few different surveys.

771

I don't know if this is true across

all the surveys I've seen, but I've

772

seen a few different surveys that say,

where parents actually say, my kid's

773

better off than they were before COVID.

774

More parents will say that

than say the opposite.

775

And, so what is this about?

776

The test score thing, I think, is to some

extent the most obvious of those, which

777

is How would a parent know that their

kid is worse off than they would have

778

been if COVID had not happened, right?

779

That's this unbelievably complex

counterfactual that, like,

780

how would you know, right?

781

At most, what are you going to see?

782

You might see percentile ranks,

and you might, if you went to

783

last year's score, you could see

how their percentile changed.

784

Or you might see, like, they were

above proficient, and now they're

785

below proficient, if you were

paying any attention to that.

786

But it might also be the case

that you don't get the test

787

scores until next year anyway.

788

Or your kids taking all these tests

during the school year and they

789

send you reports and you have no

idea how to make any sense of them.

790

Um, and so there's,

791

Andy Rotherham: look, there's a bias,

let me just jump in here and then I

792

want to, I think there's a bias there.

793

People have trouble admitting that they're

like on the wrong long distance plan or

794

that they like didn't buy the car that

was probably the best car for them to buy.

795

How, I think it's, as a parent, it's

just incredibly difficult to be like,

796

oh yeah, we made some choices here.

797

Or, or my kids were party to this, but

a public choices and it's really bad.

798

And I just think that's like a hard

thing as a parent to bring yourself.

799

Morgan Polikoff: I think that's, I think

that's true, but I also think, and we've,

800

so right now we're in the middle of this

study where, so we've been surveying

801

people over and over again about this

topic, and now, now we actually sampled

802

some of them who differed in their rate,

their ratings, and we interviewed them

803

to try and understand, okay, well, what

would they tell us in an interview versus

804

what they're telling us on the survey?

805

And I think the reality is,

That I mean, yes, you're right.

806

It's hard for parents to say,

Oh, my kid was really harmed.

807

But but but for the most part, they

actually think that once kid, the vast

808

majority of parents that we've talked

to think once their kids got back in

809

school, things were pretty much fine.

810

Right.

811

And they got back on track pretty quick.

812

And You know, they're doing just fine.

813

And, you know, one reason is because

they're getting signals from the

814

school that the kids doing fine, right?

815

The grades are really high.

816

If anything, the grade inflation is,

you know, making the grade seem higher.

817

There are definitely some parents

who will say, This really screwed

818

my kid up in various ways.

819

I think, for the most part,

those are non academic concerns.

820

They are behavioral concerns or child

well being the kid had mental health

821

issues that cropped up during kovat

things like that There are some who will

822

say yeah, my kids achievement declined

but I just don't think that there's

823

there's not a clear signal to parents

about that at all and Uh, and there

824

probably never really was, but certainly

the very, you know, this, this very,

825

um, important point about how the kid

is doing relative to how they would have

826

been doing if it had not happened, just no

one has that kind of information, right?

827

And so why would we expect

them to be aware of that?

828

And then why would we expect

them to act on that by enrolling

829

their kids in interventions or by

pushing for various policy changes?

830

It just doesn't make any sense.

831

Well, it's a little, and even like,

it's, it's not just the people

832

don't know it's being actively

communicated the other way, right?

833

Like you're seeing a lot of places say,

don't worry about the test scores where,

834

you know, it's, it's, it's, if you go

on Amazon, usually it's either number

835

one or number two, the most popular

book is this book on street data,

836

which is basically a how to for how

to like clutter up the data landscape

837

so much that parents that you lose the

noise signal ratio gets out of whack.

838

Yeah.

839

And so I think I do, I do think there's

an effort people perceive some of this

840

is like a public relations problem.

841

Rather than educational problem.

842

And so that is showing up as well.

843

And like, it's been hard for either

elected officials or reformers, or

844

there's aren't as many parent groups like

learning heroes is doing a lot of really

845

good work on this, but just to try to

just punch through and say, No, there's

846

a problem here, you got to pay attention.

847

And so, like, I mean, it's not

surprising to me that parents like do

848

feel the way they do, because I'm not

sure people are really aggressively

849

trying to tell them otherwise.

850

I think I think that's right.

851

But But then again, I think that Yeah.

852

Even if people are telling you otherwise,

what you're going to look at probably

853

is your own kid for the most part.

854

And if you're getting the signal from

your, you know, as you said, if you're

855

not getting data that's telling you

that your kid is doing any worse than

856

they were, if anything, that you're

getting data that they're doing better

857

because their grades are higher.

858

Right.

859

You're not going to be

that concerned, right?

860

And I mean, I think that's kind of always

been true, but I think it's, you know,

861

it just becomes so important right now

because of the damage that was done.

862

Andy Rotherham: Yeah, well, look, that's

a bit of a depressing note to end on.

863

On the other hand, Like it's a, it's a,

like the fact that like people like you

864

are out there doing, like, you know,

that you're trying to do that work and

865

just shed light on what's going on.

866

And again, just build like an accurate

model of the world for people, whatever

867

they think about it, but just an

accurate model of what things actually

868

look like at any point in time,

like that, like that's encouraging.

869

Cause I know it would be a lot

easier for you to, to take a

870

dive on a lot of this stuff.

871

And so it's really admirable

that you are out there doing

872

the kind of work you're doing.

873

The field's lucky to have you.

874

Morgan Polikoff: Thank you very much.

875

Andy Rotherham: I'll end on that.

876

I'll end on that happy note instead.

877

If Jed were here, he'd be very

upset with me for not asking

878

about charters and choice.

879

We'll have to have you back to, uh, we'll

have to, we'll have to have you back

880

for a special school choice episode.

881

Morgan Polikoff: Sounds good.

882

Andy Rotherham: All right.

883

This is great.

884

Thank you, Morgan.

885

Morgan Polikoff: Yeah.

886

Nice to talk with you.